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Putting a price tag on extending Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease and other looming free agents

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Putting a price tag on extending Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease and other looming free agents

Monday’s deep dive into Paul Skenes, perhaps the most interesting extension case in baseball, was a sneak peek of Extension Week.

Now I’ll start a broader look at potential extension candidates, concentrating today on players whose value is less speculative: impending free agents.

These players are, in general, less likely to sign an extension with free agency waiting at the end of this season, and my analysis here is basically projecting what each player could earn on the open market before adding in his 2025 salary. If nothing else, it’s an early projection for a free-agent deal this upcoming winter.

Since last spring’s Extension Week, three players actually put pen to paper on an extension, all earning a bit more than I projected:

Player Projected Received

4 years, $136M

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3 years, $126M

5 years, $82.5M

10 years, $122.4M

6 years, $48M

6 years, $55M

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*Here and in all other tables, I’ll account for significant deferrals by using the present-day value of the contract when it was signed.

I’ve tried to factor that into the analysis this year.

Here’s how I go about this: I’ve got a big Excel spreadsheet with more than 1,100 free-agent and extension contracts in it, as well as players’ performance in the years leading up to those contracts, as defined by FanGraphs’ wins above replacement. Whereas players get paid off home runs and saves in arbitration, I’ve found fWAR to be a solid (though not all-knowing) predictor of earnings on the open market.

I plug extension candidates into the spreadsheet, find players with similar levels of production (and ideally with similar amounts of team control left) before they signed their deals, and work off of those comps.

A few overall points worth remembering:

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  • For extensions, team control is important. If Player A looks just like Player B, except Player A has three years of arbitration ahead of him and Player B was a free agent, Player A isn’t going to get the contract Player B did. However, what Player B made in free agency is still useful as a guide to what the later part of Player A’s contract can look like.
  • For starting pitchers and position players, I look at fWAR in one-, three- and five-year samples, with a special emphasis on the shorter term. For extensions in particular, the five-year sample is less helpful because a lot of players haven’t been playing for five full years.
  • For relievers, I look at one- and two-year samples. What happened five years ago isn’t really relevant for such a volatile position, and I’ve found more of a recency bias in contracts here than elsewhere.
  • This is an exercise in player valuation, not commentary on the likelihood of an extension being signed or whether I think a team or player should sign an extension at the value I suggest. I find doing this helpful even when an extension is unlikely because it helps me understand what the market may be once a player reaches free agency or to see how the player’s value has changed over time.

As we go through this, keep in mind:

  • The actual extension projection in all cases includes what the player is slated to make this season. It will likely contain a lower AAV (average annual value) than the player would get on the open market for this reason.
  • These players should have higher projections this year than last year. Last year, they were two years removed from free agency, and they were slated to make below market value via arbitration.
  • The number in parentheses is the player’s age on July 1 of this year.
  • In the charts, “Today AAV” is the average annual value of the deal adjusted for inflation.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (26)

Maybe no one in baseball had a better year for their potential earnings than Guerrero. His 5.5-win season (according to FanGraphs) washed away any concerns after a pedestrian 2023 and reminded the sport that he’s one of its very best hitters. Plus, a player with similar strengths and weaknesses signed for more than $750 million. So Guerrero is in significantly better shape this spring than he was last spring.

Earlier in spring training, I broke down why Guerrero’s value in an extension has proven difficult to pin down. At the moment, he looks like he belongs just below the second tier of free-agent contracts for first basemen (Miguel Cabrera is the sole occupant of the top tier).

Player

  

Signed

  

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Ages

  

fWAR1

  

fWAR3

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fWAR5

  

Years

  

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Total

  

Today AAV

  

2012

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32-41

3.9

19.1

35.5

10

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240

33.6

2014

30-39

6.4

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17.9

21.4

10

225

30.6

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2019

31-35

5.2

15.4

26.9

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5

130

32.8

2009

29-36

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6.9

14.8

24.9

8

180

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33.8

2025

26

5.5

10.1

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16.7

Extending a deal for a massive 14 free-agent years would limit the AAV just a touch, to about $30 million. I know, I know: A deal that long comes off as crazy. But there have been a dozen players who have signed deals at least nine years in length in the last three offseasons — or just shy of the number of contracts that long that were signed over the prior decade. Four of them (Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts) extend through a player’s age-40 season, as this one would for Guerrero.

2024 extension projection: Seven years, $185 million
2025 Salary:
$28.5 million
2025 extension projection:
15 years, $450 million


Kyle Tucker (28)

If Tucker had remained healthy last season and continued playing the way he did in the first half of the season, his best statistical comp would be… Soto. Because of his age, Tucker wouldn’t have been able to get as long a deal as Soto, but he would have been able to make a case for a similar average annual value.

The comps are not bad as is.

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Player

  

Signed

  

Ages

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fWAR1

  

fWAR3

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fWAR5

  

Years

  

Total

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Today AAV

  

2019

26-35

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6.2

14.9

23.8

10

300.0

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37.8

2009

29-36

6.9

14.8

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24.9

8

180.0

33.8

2025

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28

4.2

14.1

22.9

2025

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31-33

4.1

14.0

20.5

3

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90.0

30.0

2012

28-36

4.7

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13.2

19.2

9

214.0

33.3

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Tucker should be able to secure a deal through at least his age-36 season, and it’s not hard for him to argue he should go longer than either Teixeira or Fielder. Let’s go with 10 years at about $35 million each before adding in this season’s salary.

2024 extension projection: Eight years, $204 million
2025 salary:
$16.5 million
2025 extension projection:
11 years, $366 million


Dylan Cease (29)

Last season, Cease and Zac Gallen entered in a similar spot: at the same age, earning about the same in arbitration, in line for about the same extension. Then, while Gallen had a nice season, Cease posted another top-five finish in the Cy Young balloting. He’s placed himself in the same group as the top earning starters from this past winter.

Player

  

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Signed

  

Ages

  

fWAR1

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fWAR3

fWAR5

  

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Years

  

Total

  

Today AAV

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2025

29

4.8

12.8

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17.8

2025

30-35

3.7

11.8

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24.2

6

193.8

32.3

2015

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31-36

5.6

11.6

19.1

6

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155.0

35.1

2025

31-38

3.4

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10.1

17.6

8

218.0

27.3

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Lester sets the high end for Cease, and that comp suggests Cease can in fact get more than Burnes just did from the Diamondbacks. Both point to a deal buying out six free-agent years. Let’s estimate those at just under $33 million and add in this year’s salary.

2024 extension projection: Seven years, $140 million
2025 salary:
$13.75 million
2025 extension projection:
Seven years, $210 million


Zac Gallen (29)

Right now, Gallen isn’t quite on the same level as Cease.

Player

  

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Signed

  

Ages

  

fWAR1

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fWAR3

  

fWAR5

  

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Years

  

Total

  

Today AAV

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2016

30-35

4.0

9.4

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17.0

6

130.0

29.0

2016

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30-34

3.0

12.0

18.7

5

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110.0

29.5

2025

29

2.8

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12.2

15.6

This sets him up for roughly the 2025 version of Cueto’s deal in free agency: six years and $174 million, before adding this year’s salary.

2024 extension projection: Seven years, $140 million
2025 salary:
$13.5 million
2025 extension projection: Seven years, $187 million


Framber Valdez (31)

Valdez has had just as much success as Cease and Gallen; the issue for him is he’s two years older than those guys. Starters who hit the open market entering their age-32 season seldom sign for more than three or four years. (The exceptions are guys like Zack Greinke, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, who all owned Cy Young awards.)

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Player

  

Signed

  

Ages

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fWAR1

  

fWAR3

  

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fWAR5

  

Years

  

Total

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Today AAV

  

2016

30-35

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4.0

9.4

17.0

6

130.0

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29.0

2016

30-34

3.0

12.0

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18.7

5

110.0

29.5

2025

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31

3.6

12.4

16.8

Let’s stick with the same comps as Gallen but only for four free-agent years rather than six.

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2024 extension projection: Five years, $105 million
2025 salary:
$18 million
2025 extension projection:
Five years, $134 million


Devin Williams (30)

Just looking at the raw numbers isn’t charitable to Williams, who on a per-appearance basis is right there with recent closers who signed four-year deals like Raisel Iglesias and Tanner Scott. (Williams missed roughly two-thirds of last season.)

Player

  

Signed

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Ages

  

fWAR1

  

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fWAR2

  

Years

  

Total

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Today AAV

  

2022

32-35

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2.0

5.0

4.0

58

16.4

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2025

30

1.6

4.5

4.0

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72.0

18.0

2025

30

0.8

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2.6

Given that no position gets paid on reputation quite the way closer does, Williams could still be in line for a deal that rivals Scott’s, before adding in this year’s salary.

2024 extension projection: N/A
2025 salary:
$8.6 million
2025 extension projection:
Five years, $80 million

(Top photo of Dylan Cease: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)

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World Cup Red Cards: 2026 Has More Red Cards Than Each Of Last 2 World Cups

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World Cup Red Cards: 2026 Has More Red Cards Than Each Of Last 2 World Cups

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The referees have been active at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

It took only 27 games across seven days for officials to allocate more red cards than they did during the entire 2018 and 2022 FIFA World Cups. The record for red cards in a single World Cup stands at 28 in 2006. These moments led to penalty kicks, set pieces outside the box and offenses capitalizing on shorthanded opponents. 

FOX Sports rules analyst Mark Clattenburg weighed in on the increase in red cards.

“Players are well-behaved, but they’re just making mistakes in and around the penalty area, in maybe a panic,” Clattenburg said. “And not saying the players getting inside the penalty area and conceding the penalties are more than happy to commit a foul and commit a red card, knowing that they miss the next match, but now that they have 26 players on the roster, there are plenty of players to certainly cover [those] positions.”

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The record for red cards in a single World Cup is 28 in the 2006 edition of the tournament, and nine of those were straight red cards. 

  • 2026: 6 red cards (all 6 straight reds)
  • 2022: 4 red cards (1 straight red)
  • 2018: 4 red cards (2 straight reds)
  • 2014: 10 red cards (7 straight reds)
  • 2010: 17 red cards (9 straight reds)
  • 2006: 28 red cards (9 straight reds)

Here’s a look at every red card and the impact they’ve had on the 2026 FIFA World Cup. 

Miguel Almiron was sent off right before halftime in Paraguay’s match against Türkiye after a VAR check determined that he said something while covering his mouth to an opposing player. 

Assim MadiboQatar

Madibo made an ill-timed tackle in the midfield on Canada’s Ismaël Koné. Koné was ultimately stretchered off the pitch as Qatar was reduced to nine men. 

Homam AhmedQatar

With Canada taking an early 2-0 lead, Homam Ahmed’s desperate tackle on Tajon Buchanan just outside the box only made matters worse. Canada scored moments later against a 10-man Qatar side to increase the advantage to 3-0. 

Tarik MuharemovicBosnia and Herzegovina

Tarik Muharemović tackled Swiss striker Breel Embolo on the precipice of the 18-yard box, preventing a one-on-one between Embolo and the goalkeeper. Switzerland didn’t convert the ensuing set piece, but with Bosnia and Herzegovina down to 10 men, the Swiss went on to score three late goals and close out a 4-1 victory. 

Cesar MontesMexico

As tempers boiled in the opening match, Mexico made it a three-red-card affair. César Montes took down Khuliso Mudau in an attacking position in the second minute of injury time. South Africa couldn’t capitalize on the set piece, and the match ended with a 2-0 Mexico victory.

Themba ZwaneSouth Africa

Themba Zwane was sent off for making contact with Brian Gutiérrez in the head during a South African attack. He put his team in a stick situation, down to nine men. Zwane’s suspension was extended from the normal one game to three after FIFA ruled it fell under Article 14’s rule for violent contact. 

Sphephelo SitholeSouth Africa

In the 2026 FIFA World Cup opening match, Sithole took down Mexico’s Brian Gutierrez just outside the box, earning a red card as the last line of defense between Gutierrez and the goalkeeper. Sithole’s red card led to a free kick from a threatening position, but Mexico couldn’t convert. However, in the 67th minute, Mexico capitalized on the one-man advantage as Raúl Jiménez scored his first World Cup goal. 

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Shohei Ohtani out of Dodgers’ lineup vs. Orioles for birth of his second child

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Shohei Ohtani out of Dodgers’ lineup vs. Orioles for birth of his second child

Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani was away from the team Friday for the birth of his second child.

He was out of the lineup for the series opener against the Orioles, but the Dodgers did not opt to put him on the paternity list, temporarily playing down a player instead. The team said it expects Ohtani back at some point this weekend.

Ohtani pitched Wednesday, so he should be back with the team well before his next turn in the rotation.

With Ohtani out, rookie Ryan Ward served as the designated hitter Friday, batting seventh. And right fielder Kyle Tucker moved up to the leadoff spot that Ohtani usually occupies.

Entering Friday, Ohtani owned the second-highest OPS (.962) in the National League, among qualified hitters. And his 1.47 ERA ranked No. 2 among pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings, despite giving up seven combined earned runs in his past two starts.

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Ohtani has been pitching through a blister on the middle finger of his right hand. And last week he missed a game to address a bout of inflammation in his left knee, which he thinks may have stemmed from mechanical problems in his pitching delivery.

Will Smith to get injection for neck

Catcher Will Smith (stiff neck) will get an injection to address his neck injury, manager Dave Roberts said. Recent imaging came back “fine,” Roberts said, and didn’t reveal anything “really bad.”

Smith said last week, before undergoing imaging, that he was diagnosed with an “inflamed disk.”

Smith — remaining on the injured list past the minimum stint, despite the Dodgers’ initial optimism — will be sidelined through the weekend, and he may not make the trip to Minnesota on Monday, which kicks off a three-city trip.

Edwin Díaz throwing off mound

Dodgers closer Edwin Díaz pitches against the Washington Nationals in April.

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(Nick Wass / Associated Press)

Closer Edwin Díaz (elbow surgery) has progressed to throwing off the mound. He threw a 15-pitch bullpen on Friday, all fastballs, at 91-93 mph, Roberts said.

“Really positive day for Edwin,” Roberts said.

When Díaz underwent the procedure to remove loose bodies from his elbow in late April, the Dodgers eyed a post-All-Star break return. And they won’t push for an aggressive build-up, with the long-term in mind.

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Short hops

Left fielder Teoscar Hernández (strained left hamstring) is on track to begin a minor-league rehab assignment early next week, Roberts said. … Left-hander Blake Snell (elbow surgery) is progressing in his throwing program after undergoing a NanoNeedle scope procedure to remove loose bodies from his elbow in mid-May. He is close to throwing off a mound, Roberts said.

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Florida AG launches civil rights investigation into MLB’s warning to Christian pitchers over Pride Night caps

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Florida AG launches civil rights investigation into MLB’s warning to Christian pitchers over Pride Night caps

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The attorneys general from Missouri and Florida have reacted strongly to the controversy stirred when Major League Baseball warned three San Francisco Giants players about inscribing a Bible verse on their Pride Night caps, and that reaction includes MLB being served with a subpoena that signals the launch of an official investigation.

Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier launched his investigation on Friday by serving MLB with a subpoena to investigate whether it is violating the civil rights of players based on their religious beliefs.

The general purpose and scope of Florida’s investigation “extend(s) to possible civil rights and deceptive and unfair trade practices violations in matters of employment concerning the business practices, policies, and procedures of Major League Baseball,” per the subpoena obtained by Fox News Digital.

In a letter from Uthmeier to MLB Commissioner Robert Manfred, the AG warns that “a pattern or practice of selectively enforcing its rules to benefit favored secular beliefs over disfavored religious beliefs would not only potentially violate Florida civil rights law, but it would also violate the League’s own policies.

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MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL FACES BACKLASH FOR ITS STANCE ON CHRISTIANS WRITING BIBLE VERSES ON PRIDE CAPS

“And a practice of claiming not to discriminate based on religion while discriminating based on religion could further amount to an unfair or deceptive trade practice in violation of the Florida Deceptive and Unfair Trade Practices Act.”

Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier speaks at a news conference in Orlando on July 15, 2025, where he said U.S. Masters Swimming should not allow transgender athletes to compete against women swimmers or face legal action. Advocates Cassidy Carlisle and Lainey Armistead also attended. (Rich Pope/Orlando Sentinel/Tribune News Service)

Uthmeier is particularly troubled by the fact MLB said its warning had nothing to do with the players’ religious beliefs but rather was strictly because of a violation of the league’s uniform code.

It should be noted MLB said in a follow-up statement to its initial warning to the players that it was merely enforcing its uniform codes and the warning had nothing to do with Giants pitchers Landen Roupp, JT Brubaker and Ryan Walker writing a Bible verse on the team’s Pride Night Cap most of the other players wore.

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MLB ACCUSED OF ‘DOUBLE STANDARD’ AFTER CALLING OUT PLAYERS’ BIBLE MESSAGES DESPITE BACKING BLM IN 2020

Uthmeier noted that doesn’t ring true and presented in his letter a handful of examples where MLB has been absolutely fine with players adding to their uniform.

“In 2019, for example, a Cincinnati Reds player wrote on his cap in tribute to a nearby mass shooting,” Uthmeier wrote to Manfred. “And in 2020, MLB evidently added new, sweeping exceptions to its uniform rules by allowing players to ‘support social justice and diversity and inclusion.’ These policy changes included permitting players to add Black Lives Matter patches to their sleeves.

“MLB therefore appears to applaud — even change its rules for — the ideological beliefs it prefers, but targets players who express religious views the League doesn’t like.”

Commissioner of Major League Baseball Robert D. Manfred Jr. speaks at the 2024 MLB Draft presented by Nike at Cowtown Coliseum in Fort Worth, Texas, on July 14, 2024. (Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

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The Florida subpoena, issued under the Florida Civil Rights Act, demands action from MLB on July 23, 2026, at 9 a.m.. At that time, MLB must deliver to the AG’s office documents including:

  • All documents concerning how MLB characterized or classified the June 2026 cap writing, including, for example, whether MLB treated it as religious expression, political messaging, protest, or a violation unrelated to its content.
  • All documents concerning what prompted MLB’s review of and warning regarding the June 2026 cap writing, including any complaint, media inquiry, internal escalation, or third-party communication received before the warning issued, and the timing of each relative to the warning.
  • All documents concerning the actual June 2026 warnings issued by the MLB to any club.
  • All documents, including drafts and internal deliberations, concerning MLB’s decision to issue and publicly announce the June 2026 warnings, and any analysis of whether doing so adhered to the Code or with MLB’s treatment of comparable non-religious expression.

San Francisco Giants pitcher Landen Roupp wrote “Genesis 9:12-16” on his Pride-Night themed hat. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Uthmeier is thus joining Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway, who recently wrote a letter to Manfred asking the commissioner to confirm that no player who has chosen to refrain from “wearing Pride Month paraphernalia or included Bible verses on Pride Month hats” will not be disciplined in any way.

Hanaway’s letter states that if Manfred fails to answer by June 25 or does not confirm that no discipline will be levied, she too will open an investigation of MLB.

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The two attorneys general have authority over their individual states. But it affects four MLB teams.

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Florida is home to two MLB teams — the Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins — while Missouri is home to the St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals.

FOLLOW ARMANDO SALGUERO ON X: @ARMANDOSALGUERO

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