An umbrella and a moderately warm jacket are what Hoosiers might want to keep on hand over the next three months. Meteorologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting Indiana’s winter to be wetter than average.

The most recent seasonal outlook map by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows several Midwest states now have equal chances for both above and below average temperatures January throughout March of 2025. The agency updated its predictions last week, saying La Niña conditions have a 59% chance of emerging this winter.

Here’s what that means for Hoosiers living in Indiana.

What is La Niña?

La Niña is a natural climate pattern in which the ocean’s seawater cools in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, according to the National Weather Service. It occurs normally every 3-5 years and can have a significant impact on the weather, such as worsening the Atlantic hurricane season.

How does La Niña impact winter?

Changes in the ocean’s temperature can affect tropical rainfall patterns, which in turn can impact weather all over the world. These effects, writes NWS, are more acute during the winter months when the jet stream is strongest over the United States, which causes colder and stormier than average conditions across the North and warmer, less stormier conditions in the south.

What does La Niña mean for the Midwest?

Historically for the Midwest, La Niña conditions usually create fall weather that’s warmer and drier than normal while winters tend to be wetter than average, according to NWS. This year Indianapolis experienced its third warmest fall on record, according to records kept by NWS, with the highest recorded temperature in 2024 set on Sept. 21 at 94 degrees. Winter for Central Indiana, as a result, could follow historical trends of getting more precipitation than average January through March 2025.

When is the first day of winter?

The first day of winter is Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, also known as the winter solstice for the northern hemisphere.

What’s the NOAA forecast for Indiana this winter?

Indiana is forecast to have a wet winter this year, according to NOAA. Areas in Central Indiana stretching as far north as Fort Wayne have a 50–60% higher chance of above-normal precipitation. The odds of Evansville and places along Indiana’s southern edge near Louisville are leaning toward a 40–50% greater chance of more precipitation than average this winter.

Records kept by NWS show the average total rainfall from January through March in Indianapolis equaled 9.24 inches.

How cold will Indiana get this winter? Here’s what NOAA says…

Indiana has an equal chance of seeing above or below normal temperatures during the first three months of 2025, according to a seasonal outlook map updated by NOAA on Nov. 21. An earlier prediction showed Indiana leaning toward above-normal temperatures.

The average daily high in Indianapolis, according to NWS, is 36 in January; 41 in February; and 52 in March. Lows during those three months average in the low 20s to low 30s

Warmer than normal temperatures are possible over large swaths of the U.S., according to NWS, in part because of the lowered seawater temperatures of La Niña. The map is valid from January to March 2025.

Winter in Indiana: Winter solstice is the shortest day of the year. Here’s how much daylight Indiana gets.

What do the Farmers’ almanacs predict for winter in the Midwest?

A winter prediction by the Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts the Hoosier state would have snowy, cold conditions in the southern half of the state with cold, drier weather in northern Indiana.

Meanwhile, the Farmer’s Almanac predicts the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest region (Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin) can expect a “big freeze” in January with “very, very cold conditions.”

Hoosiers might want to keep in mind the almanacs’ long-range predictions are sometimes little better than a coin flip. One study cited by Popular Mechanics reported the Farmer’s Almanac was right about 52% of the time.

Story continues after photo gallery.

When will winter end?

Winter lasts from Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, in the northern hemisphere until Thursday, March 20, 2025, when the vernal equinox will mark the beginning of spring.

What are the dates for the four seasons in 2025?

• Spring: March 20, 2025 (vernal equinox)
• Summer: June 20, 2025 (summer solstice).
• Fall: Sept. 22, 2025 (autumnal equinox).
• Winter: Dec. 21, 2025 (winter solstice).

More forecasts: Old Farmer’s Almanac says to keep your flip-flops out for fall. Unless you live in Indiana

John Tufts covers trending news for IndyStar and Midwest Connect. Send him a news tip at JTufts@Gannett.com. Find him on BlueSky at JohnWritesStuff.