World
Russia's ever-escalating hybrid war has the EU in its crosshairs
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When looking at these hostile actions individually, they might not constitute more than a nuisance on their own. Yet, collectively, these actions form a comprehensive hybrid warfare package where the boundaries are repeatedly pushed, Alexander Borum writes.
Despite an unfolding war and a continued cost-of-living crisis, life for the average European citizen is both peaceful and comfortable.
This is attested by the recently published Global Peace Index 2024, which shows that the list of the top 10 most peaceful countries remains dominated by European entries.
But scratch beneath the surface and a more sinister reality appears: a Europe engaged in a protracted and fierce hybrid war that demands our attention.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Western world has committed an unprecedented level of military and economic support to stem the tide of unbarred violence against the country.
While this support has been a crucial part of ensuring Ukrainian independence, it has also escalated Russia’s ongoing hybrid war against the West to new heights, notably targeting the European Union.
The Kremlin is not letting up
While Russia is the most prominent assailant, it does not stand alone in its anti-western efforts. It has diligently balanced its interests against those of the West, enlisting partners such as Belarus, Iran and North Korea.
By housing Russian nuclear weapons and troops and by arming and resupplying the Russian armed forces, these countries exacerbate Russian aggression. However, China remains a crucial part of the puzzle.
Its role was emphasised during the recent NATO Summit in Washington as a decisive enabler of Russian aggression in Ukraine and an active participant in the hybrid war against the transatlantic partners.
While not standing alone, Russia remains a uniquely aggressive actor, engaging in a multifaceted war against the West from the relative safety of the shadows.
After the conclusion of the recent European Parliament elections, consultancy firms identified tens of thousands of accounts spreading disinformation even as EU citizens sought to cast their ballots in an election that saw the steep rise of populist parties with pro-Vladimir Putin positions.
Beyond the elections, fake narratives such as Bugatti-gate have emerged. This one spins the story of Olena Zelenska, First Lady of Ukraine, purchasing a luxury car for €4.5m during a time of particular duress for Ukraine.
Naturally, the false story, created using deep fake techniques, fake media outlets and falsified information, was quickly debunked — but not before knee-jerk reactions shaped political discourse across Europe, at least momentarily.
Subversions go up in scale
However, where disinformation might cause disruption and instability, more sinister efforts are at play, and webs of infiltrators and intelligence operators are increasingly unravelling within the European Union.
From prominent academics in the Baltics to expat florists in Slovenia with direct links to Russian intelligence services, the situation is looking increasingly grim.
Financial entities such as Pravfond enable Russian intelligence services to fund disruptive and destabilising efforts within Europe.
ADVERTISEMENTPravfond expands the scope and scale of Russia’s political warfare against Europe, with funding benefiting anti-democratic movements, political entities with pro-Russia, isolationist or protest-oriented stances, the recruitment of European assets, as well as large-scale intelligence and influence operations across continental Europe.
Alongside disruption from within, Russia and its close ally Belarus also seek to apply pressure on Europe’s external borders.
By instrumentalising migration and providing guidance, routes and supplies to migrants, Russia and Belarus have adopted a ruthless method of hybrid warfare.
By exploiting desperate people and hurling them against European borders, they fan not only the need for robust border management responses but also the flames of anti-migratory rhetoric, often stemming from political parties with attitudes conducive to Russian interests.
ADVERTISEMENTFrom assassination to sabotage, anything goes
When looking at these hostile actions individually, they might not constitute more than a nuisance on their own.
Yet, collectively, these actions form a comprehensive hybrid warfare package where the boundaries are repeatedly pushed. In recent months, Russia has made the Baltic Sea a frontline for escalating its hybrid war against the West, targeting EU member states in the region with calculated manoeuvres to provoke them.
A key tool here has been reigniting border disputes in the Gulf of Finland, along the Narva River with Estonia, and in the sea surrounding the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad by unilaterally redrawing borders that directly violate international law.
At the forefront of Russia’s escalating hybrid war against Europe has been a string of special operations conducted within the Schengen borders.
ADVERTISEMENTSeveral assassinations of political dissidents inside of Europe have occurred over the last decades of Putin’s rule in Russia, but the recent attempt on the life of Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall, has opened a new frontier in attempts to subdue support for Ukraine.
Acts of sabotage have shaken Europe in recent years. As European intelligence services continue to outline an increase in Russia’s probing efforts into defence industries, sea cables and crucial infrastructure, the future will likely bring further attempts to disrupt supply lines to Ukraine through sabotage.
Above us and at sea, European air traffic and shipping are increasingly targeted by attempts to jam the GPS systems relied on for safe navigation.
An ultimate consequence of such disruption might be catastrophic incidents causing irreparable damage to the environment or significant losses of civilian lives — a stark reminder of the gravity of the situation.
ADVERTISEMENTKeep an eye on Ukraine
With such significant pressure on Europe, it was perhaps no surprise when the Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen noted in February that Russia would likely be in a position to test Article 5 and NATO solidarity within a three- to five-year time span.
This statement echoed the one by Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, who in January remarked that NATO should expect an attack on a member state within five to eight years, emphasising the need for unity and solidarity between partners.
With further escalations looming, one might be tempted to look towards NATO for solace.
Yet, with the recent assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump and the poor performance of President Joe Biden in his bid for re-election, NATO will likely face a stark new reality if Trump takes office in November.
ADVERTISEMENTWith the US pursuing an increasingly isolationist policy under Trump, a pivot to the east and a track record of statements sowing distrust in the alliance’s unity, there is an increasing sense of urgency for Europe to take ownership of its security needs.
It’s crucial for Europe to do what it takes to keep Ukraine in fighting shape should the US falter, as any other path would invite disaster.
Alexander Borum is Policy Leader Fellow at the European University Institute in Florence, focusing on the European Union Common Security and Defence Policy.
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President Donald Trump remains adamant that his administration will engage in “direct” nuclear talks with Iran on Saturday in Oman, while Tehran appears to remain equally steadfast in its insistence the negotiations will be “indirect.”
Middle East envoy Stever Witkoff is scheduled to travel to Oman, where he could potentially be meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, though the Iranian official has so far maintained the talks will be held through a third party.
While it remains unclear who will get their way regarding the format of the discussions, Iran expert and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Behnam Ben Taleblu, said this public controversy between Washington and Tehran is all a game of leverage.
“Both sides have an incentive to either overrepresent or underrepresent what is happening,” he told Fox News Digital. “These are often the negotiations before the negotiations.”
IRAN MULLS PREEMPTIVE STRIKE ON US BASE AFTER TRUMP BOMB THREATS
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters as he signs executive orders in the Oval Office on April 9, 2025. (Getty Images)
“For the White House, the desire to be seen as having direct talks with the Islamic Republic is high,” he said, pointing to the lack of direct engagement between Washington and Tehran dating back to his first term and the regime’s deep disdain for the president, as witnessed in an apparent assassination attempt.
While the Iranian government has long held contempt for the U.S., a sentiment that has persisted for decades, Trump is “very different,” Ben Taleblu said.
The security expert highlighted the 2020 assassination of top Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the crippling effect of the U.S.-sanctioned maximum-pressure campaign and Trump’s open support for the Iranian people as the major issues that have rankled the Iranian regime.
“Trump is a very bitter pill to swallow, and I think the supreme leader of Iran once said that the shoe of Qasem Soleimani has more honor than the head of Trump,” Ben Taleblu said. “Being seen as directly negotiating with someone [like that] would be making the Islamic Republic look like a supplicant.
“The U.S. wants to be seen as having driven Iran to the negotiating table, and the Islamic Republic does not want to be seen as being driven to the negotiating table,” he added.
Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani is shown in 2016. (Press Office of Iranian Supreme Leader/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
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Tehran’s chief advantage is the fact that, despite severe U.S. sanctions and geopolitical attempts to halt its development of a nuclear weapon, it has made serious gains in its enrichment of uranium to near-weapons-grade quality, as well as with its missile program, a critical component in being able to actually fire a nuclear warhead.
It also has drastically closer ties with chief U.S. adversarial superpowers like Russia and China, whose position and involvement in countering Western attempts to disarm a nuclear Iran remains an unknown at this point.
While Iran holds significant leverage when it comes to negotiating with the Trump administration on its nuclear program, Washington has a plethora of levers it can use to either incentivize or coerce Tehran into adhering to international calls for the end of its nuclear program.
“The U.S. actually has a heck of a lot of leverage here,” Ben Taleblu said, pointing to not only more economic sanctions, including “snapback” mechanisms under the United Nations Security Council, but also military options.
Trump last month threatened to “bomb” Iran if it did not engage in nuclear talks with the U.S.
But some have questioned how long the administration will allow negotiations to persist as JCPOA-era snapback sanctions expire in October 2025.
The White House would not confirm for Fox News Digital any time restrictions it has issued to Iran, but Trump on Wednesday told reporters, “We have a little time, but we don’t have much time.”
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies analyzed where Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is located. (Foundation for Defense of Democracies)
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“The regime has its back against the wall,” Ben Taleblu said. “A military option, given what has been happening in the Middle East since Oct. 7, 2023, is an increasingly credible option against the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
“And the regime is engaging, now, to delay and prevent a military option from ever materializing,” he added. “They are hoping to use talks with the Americans as a human shield against the Israelis.”
“So long as you’re talking to America, the Israelis aren’t shooting at you,” Ben Taleblu continued.
Trump this week said that it would be Israel who would take the lead on a military strike on Iran, not the U.S., should nuclear talks fail, which again could be a negotiating tactic as Israel has already demonstrated it will not hesitate to militarily engage with Iran.
“Pursuing wholesale disarmament of the Islamic Republic of Iran is incredibly risky, and it doesn’t have a great track record of succeeding,” Ben Taleblu said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talks to President Donald Trump during a meeting in the Oval Office on April 7, 2025. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
The Iranian expert said the only way to actually take on the Islamic Republic would be through a “broader” and “more holistic” strategy that focuses not only on nuclear nonproliferation but removing the “Axis of Resistance,” scaling up sanctions and having a “ground game” to counter the regime through cyber, political and telecommunication strategies “for when Iranians go out into the street and protest again.”
“What the Islamic Republic would always want is to have you focus on the fire and not on the arsonist, and the arsonist is quite literally a regime that has tried to kill this president,” Ben Taleblu said.
The Kremlin says Witkoff ‘will bring something from his president to Putin’ in push for a Ukraine peace settlement.
United States President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is holding talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg to discuss the war in Ukraine, according to the Kremlin.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed on Friday that Witkoff and Putin were in the Russian city.
“The painstaking work continues. Naturally, Witkoff, as a special representative of President Trump, will bring something from his president to Putin,” Peskov was quoted as saying by Russia’s TASS news agency.
“Putin will listen to it. The conversation on various aspects of the Ukrainian settlement will continue.”
Earlier on Friday, Russian state media published footage of Witkoff and Russia’s economic negotiator, Kirill Dmitriev, leaving a hotel in Saint Petersburg.
Talks to secure a ceasefire deal to end the Ukraine war have stalled amid negotiations on the conditions to end the conflict.
At the end of March, Trump said he was “very angry” and “p****d off” after Putin criticised the credibility of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s leadership.
Trump told NBC News: “If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault – which it might not be – but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia.”
Last month, Putin rejected a joint US-Ukrainian proposal for a complete and unconditional ceasefire.
While Russia and Ukraine agreed to halt attacks on energy infrastructure in March, both sides have accused each other of continuing attacks.
Mending ties
Witkoff has quickly become a key figure in discussions between Washington and Moscow as frosty tensions during former President Joe Biden’s administration have eased.
After his last meeting with Putin, Witkoff said the Russian president was a “great leader” and “not a bad guy”.
More recently, US and Russian officials held talks on Thursday in Turkiye.
Both sides said they had made progress towards normalising the work of their diplomatic missions.
That same day, Russia freed Russian American Ksenia Karelina from prison in exchange for the suspected tech smuggler Arthur Petrov.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that prisoner exchanges helped build “trust, which is much needed” between the two sides after ties deteriorated under Biden.
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