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Four takeaways from French legislative elections

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Four takeaways from French legislative elections

Here are some of the key takeaways from the French snap legislative elections.

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For the second time in under a month, the ruling centrist coalition of French President Emmanuel Macron was dealt a heavy blow on Sunday by the far-right National Rally (RN) which secured the top position in the first round of the country’s snap legislative elections. 

Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called the snap election on 9 June after RN swept to victory in the European elections, obtaining more than double the number of votes Macron’s centrist coalition did.

Macron’s decision to call the election was described by commentators as either a ploy that could grant him the absolute majority he lost two years ago or a dangerous gamble that could see the far-right helm a government for the first time in the country.

Which is it? Euronews brings you the main takeaways from the first round.

Far-right makes historic gains

The National Rally (RN), led by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, appears to have cemented its position as the country’s main political force by securing over 33% of the vote nationwide.

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If the score is confirmed next Sunday in the second round, the party could secure between 230 and 280 seats – just nine seats short of an absolute majority. 

Bardella pledged on Sunday that he would be “the prime minister for all the people of France … respectful of the opposition, open to dialogue and concerned at all times with the unity of the people” all while taking swipes at Macron’s alliance and the left-wing New Popular Front. 

The second round, he added, will be “one of the most decisive (votes) in the history of the Fifth Republic”.

The far-right’s gains in the first round marked a historic performance for the party in a legislative election.

In 2017, the then-called National Front gained 13% of the vote in the first round and 2022, they received 18% of the vote.

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Tara Varma, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, told Euronews that “what we see is that people are no longer ashamed to vote for the National Rally”.

“Not only are they no longer ashamed to do so, but they are no longer ashamed to say so,” she said.

While a scenario where the RN wins the absolute majority in parliament may not be the “most probable,” it cannot be “excluded,” she said.

Macron’s big loss

Three weeks after suffering a crushing defeat in the European elections, Macron’s centrist coalition, Ensemble, was dealt another devastating blow by coming in third with just 21% of the nationwide vote.

That’s 12 points and seven points below the far-right RN and the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition, respectively. 

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About 300 of its candidates are still in contention for a seat in the 577-seat hemicycle. But if its first-round score is confirmed next Sunday, it could mean the centrist coalition could shed as many as 180 seats and retain only between 70 and 100 MPs. 

Provided no other alliance gets an absolute majority, Macron could in theory try to form a ruling coalition but that might be a tall order.

The presidential camp has repeatedly rejected any notion of working with the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party with Macron himself saying that if the RN or LFI were to get into power, it could lead to “civil war”. 

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Parties that Macron could therefore try to rally for a more “moderate” coalition include the Socialists and the Greens on the left and the Republicans on the right.

But it’s unclear if they could find a landing zone or if they would jointly have the 289 seats needed.

Could there be a ‘Republican front’ against the RN?

Within minutes of the exit poll showing the far-right National Rally largely in the lead, political leaders on the left started calling for a so-called “Republican front”. 

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They pledged to withdraw third-place candidates who qualified for the second round in an effort to prevent the RN from winning seats due to a split vote between the other parties.

This is true of LFI, the Socialists, Greens, and Communists, and also of certain members of Macron’s centrist coalition.

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“I say this with all the force that each and every one of our voters must muster. Not a single vote must go to the National Rally,” Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said in his speech on Sunday.

Other members of the president’s coalition have called on their voters not to support members of LFI, saying that neither the RN nor the party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, which is part of the left-wing coalition, should get a vote.

For Mathias Bernard, a specialist in French political history and president of the University of Clermont Auvergne, “withdrawals or, conversely, triangular contests are the key to the election.”

“If each of the three blocs goes it alone in the second-round battle, the RN is likely to win an absolute majority. If there is a sort of ‘Republican front’, it will be more difficult for the RN,” he told Euronews.

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“However, it is not certain that this “Republican front” will materialise,” he said, naming Ensemble and the Republicans as the two parties where third-placed candidates might most resist being asked to withdraw.

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High turnout in snap election

There was intense interest in the snap poll called by Macron, with several voters telling Euronews ahead of the vote that they were disappointed with the president’s policies and wanted change.

Turnout, which is often low in France, increased significantly during these elections.

In the first round of the 2017 and 2022 legislative elections, the participation rate did not reach 50%, according to interior ministry figures. The first round of this poll saw the participation rise to 66.7%.

“High turnout and fewer candidates led to an unprecedented number of three-way contests in the second round,” according to Célia Belin, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Paris office.

The presidential coalition’s refusal to systematically withdraw due to the presence of LFI candidates, however, could “increase anti-RN voters’ confusion about the best course of action,” she said.

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Manon Aubry, a leftist EU lawmaker, told reporters on Sunday that she met many first-time young voters when she went to vote in Paris.

This mobilisation, especially in disadvantaged neighbourhoods, should be welcomed and amplified, she said.

The results also sparked protests in the country, with thousands of left-wing voters gathering over the gains of the far-right.

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Ukraine not ready to compromise with Russia, says Zelenskiy aide

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Ukraine not ready to compromise with Russia, says Zelenskiy aide
Ukraine is not ready to compromise with Russia and give up any territory to end the war, a senior Ukrainian official said on Tuesday when asked about U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump’s declaration that he could quickly end the conflict.
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Dutch king swears in a new government 7 months after elections

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Dutch king swears in a new government 7 months after elections

The Netherlands has a different prime minister for the first time in 14 years as Dutch King Willem-Alexander swore in the country’s new government Tuesday, more than seven months after elections dominated by a far-right, anti-Islam party.

Dick Schoof, former head of the Dutch intelligence agency and counterterrorism office, signed the official royal decree at Huis Ten Bosch Palace, saying he “declared and promised” to uphold his duties as the country’s prime minister. The 67-year-old was formally installed alongside 15 other ministers who make up the country’s right-leaning coalition.

FORMER INTELLIGENCE CHIEF NOMINATED AS NEW PRIME MINISTER BY THE NETHERLANDS’ INCOMING GOVERNMENT

The anti-immigration party of firebrand Geert Wilders won the largest share of seats in elections last year but it took 223 days to form a government.

The new coalition quickly faced criticism of its marquee anti-immigration policies — by its own party members, as well as opposition groups. Protesters gathered in front of the palace where the ceremony took place on Tuesday, with one woman carrying a sign asking: “Are we democratically getting rid of our democracy?”

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The four parties in the coalition are Wilders’ Party for Freedom, outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, the populist Farmer Citizen Movement and the centrist New Social Contract party.

Dutch King Willem-Alexander meets with incoming Prime Minister Dick Schoof, right, in The Hague, Netherlands, Monday, July 1, 2024.  (Patrick van Katwijk/Pool Photo via AP)

The formal agreement creating the new coalition, titled “Hope, courage and pride,” introduces strict measures on asylum-seekers, scraps family reunification for refugees and seeks to reduce the number of international students studying in the country.

Opposition from other coalition partners prevented the controversial Wilders from taking the prime minister’s job. During the monthslong negotiations, he backpedaled on several of his most extreme views, including withdrawing draft legislation that would have banned mosques, Islamic schools and the Quran.

For the first time since World War II, the Netherlands is now led by a prime minister who is not aligned with a political party. Before serving as chief of the country’s top intelligence agency, Schoof was previously the counterterror chief and the head of the country’s Immigration and Naturalization Service.

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The other government ministers were sworn in Tuesday according to seniority of their departments. One minister, Femke Wiersma who will head the agriculture portfolio, made her declaration in Frisian — the country’s second official language alongside Dutch.

Although the November elections were widely seen as a win for the far right, political youth organizations are already pushing back on the ambitions of the new government. Ahead of the swearing-in ceremony, youth groups from six parties, including two of the coalition partners, called for a softening on asylum plans.

“Although the influx must be limited, it is of great importance that we receive people here fairly and with dignity,” Eva Brandemann, chairperson of the youth wing of the New Social Contract, told Dutch public broadcaster NOS.

Her counterpart in Rutte’s party, which brought down the government last summer over concerns about the number of family reunifications for refugees, said that problems stemmed from administration, not migration.

“The problem will only get bigger if you don’t fix it,” Mauk Bresser, the chair of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy youth organization told The Associated Press.

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While Bresser thinks the number of refugees coming to the Netherlands should be reduced, his group says those already here should have their claims processed in a timely fashion and be given the opportunity to integrate.

The new agreement slashes the country’s education budget by nearly 1 billion euros — about $1.06 billion — prompting pushback from universities. “Students will not get the education they deserve,” Nivja de Jong, a languages professor at Leiden University, told the AP. She’s part of a group of academics pushing back against the proposed cuts by delivering lunchtime talks about the importance of their research.

The new government will now spend the summer firming the coalition agreement into a governing plan.

The Netherlands isn’t the only country seeing a rise of anti-immigration, far-right views. Last month’s EU elections saw a similar shift, and French voters face a decisive choice on July 7 in the runoff of snap parliamentary elections that could see the country’s first far-right government since the World War II Nazi occupation.

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Hungary's Orban pushes for ceasefire deal during Kyiv visit

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Hungary's Orban pushes for ceasefire deal during Kyiv visit

Viktor Orban visited Ukraine’s capital for the first time since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, and offered some suggestions for ending the war.

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During his first visit to neighbouring Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán told President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday that the war was Europe’s “most important issue,” and recommended an immediate cease-fire.

Orban is widely seen as having the warmest relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin among European Union leaders, and his visit was a rare gesture in a tumultuous relationship with Ukraine as Budapest has repeatedly leaned toward Moscow.

The Hungarian prime minister has routinely blocked, delayed or watered down EU efforts to extend assistance to Ukraine and to sanction Moscow over its war, frustrating both Zelenskyy and other EU leaders.

But following talks in Kyiv on Tuesday, Orbán appeared to open the door to a new phase of bilateral relations, saying “the time had come” for such an official visit.

“We are trying to leave the disputes of the past behind us and focus on the period ahead,” Orbán said in brief comments to journalists following the talks. “We would like relations between our two countries to be much better.”

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Ukraine and Hungary have had a tense relationship since the war began, with Orbán portraying himself as a champion for peace and calling for an immediate cease-fire and peace talks without expanding on what that would mean for Ukraine’s territorial integrity. He reiterated that call Tuesday, saying it would “provide an opportunity to speed up peace negotiations.”

But Zelenskyy on Tuesday said he was “grateful” for the humanitarian support Hungary had provided to Ukrainian refugees fleeing the war. He also said Hungary could play a role in organising a second iteration of a peace summit that was held in Switzerland last month, which brought together dozens of world leaders.

“Today, we discussed in detail how Hungary can show further leadership in preparing the second summit,” Zelenskyy said, adding that he would like for the event to take place this year.

Orbán’s visit comes the day after Hungary took over the six-month rotating presidency of the EU, a position that has little real power but can be used to set the tone of the bloc’s agenda. Hungarian officials have indicated that they will act as “honest brokers” in the role despite worries from some EU lawmakers that Hungary’s democratic track record makes it unfit to lead the bloc.

During the visit, the Hungarian prime minister acknowledged Russia’s invasion, and said his aim in travelling to Kyiv was “to understand how we could be helpful to Ukraine in the forthcoming six months.”

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“The issue of peace is not only important for Ukraine, it is important for the whole of Europe,” Orbán said. “This war, which you are now suffering, has a profound effect on European security.”

The war is “the most important issue for Europe,” he said.

The Hungarian premier, a self-described adherent of “illiberal democracy,” has long been accused by his European partners of dismantling democratic institutions at home and acting as an obstinate spoiler of key EU policy priorities. The bloc has frozen more than €18.6 billion ($20 billion) in funding to Budapest over alleged rule-of-law and corruption violations, and Orbán has conducted numerous anti-EU campaigns depicting it as an overcentralized, repressive organization.

Orbán has also long accused Kyiv of mistreating an ethnic Hungarian minority in Ukraine’s western region of Zakarpattia, a community he has used to justify his refusal to provide weapons to Ukraine or allow their transfer across the two countries’ shared border.

But on Tuesday, Orbán said he sees a “good chance” of achieving progress in the minority community’s affairs and agreed to a proposal by Zelenskyy to set up a Ukrainian school in Hungary for refugees.

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“These families need to be taken care of. They need jobs, they need a livelihood, they need security, they need a good school for their children, they need good teachers,” Orbán said.

His visit comes as he seeks to recruit members into a new nationalist alliance that he hopes will soon become the largest right-wing group in the European Parliament. On Sunday, Orbán met in Vienna with the leaders of Austria’s far-right Freedom Party and the main Czech opposition party, announcing the formation of the new group, “Patriots for Europe.”

The trio would need to attract lawmakers from at least four more EU countries to successfully form a group in Europe’s new parliament, which held elections in June. Right-wing nationalist parties across Europe strengthened their position in the elections, but ideological differences over the war in Ukraine and cooperation with Russia have often prevented deeper alliances among some of the parties.

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