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Diplomatic failings and ‘elite bargains’ prolonging Libya turmoil: Analysts

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Diplomatic failings and ‘elite bargains’ prolonging Libya turmoil: Analysts

After weeks of tension that saw the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) shuttered, salaries go unpaid and cash vanish, the country’s two rival governments appeared ready to accept a United Nations-brokered agreement to resume operations,  before once more reverting to a deadlock familiar to many in the country.

The internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in the west had tried to replace CBL Governor Sadiq al-Kabir, accusing him of mishandling oil revenues and going to the extent of sending armed men in to remove him from his office.

Angered, the Government of National Unity (GNU) in eastern Libya, which is supported by renegade commander Khalifa Haftar, shut down much of the country’s oil production, which it controls, in protest.

“This is serious,” said Jalel Harchaoui, an associate fellow with London’s Royal United Services Institute. “The CBL, although weaker now than it was a few years ago, remains a linchpin to the nation’s access to hard currency.”

He added that the CBL funds most of Libya’s imports of food, medicines and other staples, which the country cannot last long without.

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The clash is the latest battleground in the 13-year rivalry between political and military elites that has dogged Libya since the overthrow of long-term ruler Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

Since then, various analysts say, life in Libya has deteriorated as fighting has continued between rival Libyans and as the international community has tried to preserve the rule of a political and military elite, convinced they are the best for stability and for the proclaimed goal of “unifying Libya”.

Why the central bank?

As well as holding Libya’s vast oil wealth, the CBL unified Libya’s eastern and western “central banks” in one body to manage the salaries of civil servants and soldiers from both governments and build confidence that recovery was possible.

After the GNA-GNU struggle over who would head the CBL, al-Kabir fled the country, claiming that he took the access codes for bank deposits with him, leaving the bank isolated from international financial networks.

Asim al-Hajjaji, director of the CBL compliance department, said international contacts had been restored, although Al Jazeera understands that most international trading remains suspended.

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Soldiers guard the gate of the Central Bank of Libya in Tripoli, on August 27, 2024 [Yousef Murad/AP Photo]

Meanwhile, oil exports have plunged to a new low, salaries are uncertain and everyday life for about six million Libyans is in turmoil.

“The United Nations is talking about talks, which is a sure sign we’re nowhere near resolution,” Tarek Megerisi, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said of negotiations to restart operations at CBL.

The West, which typically backs the GNA despite it being responsible for much of the uncertainty, “doesn’t know what to do, or really has the bandwidth to do it. They’re dealing with wars in Gaza and Ukraine,” he said.

“It’s just too much. In Libya, international efforts to achieve any kind of just settlement have lost momentum.”

And this is far from the first time.

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Over more than a decade of uncertainty and war, analysts say, the international community’s efforts focused on shoring up the country’s elites in the hope that might lead to stability.

The latest talks over the CBL appear little different, with access to the millions of dollars in assets of primary interest to the country’s elites, and access to the services and certainty craved by much of the population seemingly an afterthought, analysts told Al Jazeera.

Elite bargains presiding over endless turmoil

“Preventing a shooting war has come to be seen as the only international strategy in Libya,” Tim Eaton, a senior fellow at Chatham House who contributed to a paper on the international practice of prioritising powerful elites, told Al Jazeera.

“It’s death by a thousand cuts,” Harchaoui said.

“Everyone’s talking about a return to the status quo as if there were ever a neat, static equilibrium,” he noted. “This was never the case. Even when things appeared quiet, the arrangements were continually decaying and degrading. And that gradual deterioration is what suddenly became visible last month with the CBL crisis.”

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National elections, or even a framework that might lead to them, remain a distant prospect after the last vote, initially scheduled for December 2021, was postponed after infighting.

“Any move towards holding national elections has been blocked,” Eaton said. “Both [Abdul Hamid] Dbeibah [head of the GNA] and Haftar might say they want elections tomorrow, but they only really want their side, or at least their proxies, on the ballot paper.”

Both governments continue to rule separately, while their members, allies and militias profit from smuggling in both people and fuel and unregulated cross-border trade.

Members of Libyan National Army (LNA) commanded by Khalifa Haftar, get ready before heading out of Benghazi to reinforce the troops advancing to Tripoli
Members of the so-called ‘Libyan National Army’, commanded by Khalifa Haftar, get ready to head out of Benghazi to reinforce troops advancing to Tripoli, in Benghazi on April 13, 2019 [Esam Omran Al-Fetori/Reuters]

However, as individual members jockey for position within small and exclusive circles, systems intended to support everyday life in Libya continue to deteriorate and fail.

Eaton notes that the city of Derna, which flooded in September 2023 after a dam that the GNU was responsible for collapsed, remains unreconstructed.

“For healthcare, Libyans have to go overseas,” he noted. “And if anyone is ever caught in an emergency, there’s no one number or department they can call.

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“All the while, the super-rich that are supposed to be looking after people, are getting even richer.”

Both sides, he explained, claim to work towards establishing a central government while state institutions needed to oversee any future state, like a strong central bank, have been hollowed out and captured by elites on either side.

Regionally, over its 13 years of sporadic conflict and political uncertainty, Libya has become a continued source of instability within an already unstable region.

Within a divided Libya, various actors have come to use the country’s east as a staging point from which to project their own international ambitions in Sudan, Syria and beyond.

FILE PHOTO: Governor of Central Bank of Libya, Siddiq al-Kabir gestures during an interview with Reuters in Tripoli, Libya
Ex-Governor of CBL Siddiq al-Kabir in an interview with Reuters in Tripoli on September 1, 2021 [Hazem Ahmed/Reuters]

Overwhelming human cost

In addition to the uncertainty piled on the Libyan population are the more than 1,000 refugees, irregular migrants and asylum seekers who have died or gone missing on the Central Mediterranean migration route, in which Libya is a key part, this year.

“The West and UN in Libya are performing diplomatic theatre while the country crumbles,” Anas El Gomati of the Sadeq Institute said.

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“They have a toolbox of leverage gathering dust. Instead of applying pressure, they’re enabling corruption by legitimising those without electoral mandate or political credibility. That’s not diplomacy; that’s complicity in slow motion.”

El Gomati continued: “East or west, Libya’s compass points to chaos and corruption. Haftar and his kids carve out a fiefdom through war crimes in the east, while Dbeibah runs a ‘pay-as-you-go’ loyalty scheme with armed groups in the west.

“The irony? The elites don’t trust the very banking system they’ve bled dry, so they keep their assets overseas, which the West could freeze, but they’re too busy shaking hands with the very hands pickpocketing Libya’s future.

“Western policymakers and Libyan elites are locked in a race to the bottom of delusion and greed,” El Gomati concluded. “The West sees a finish line; the elites see an endless buffet. It’s not naivete, it’s willful blindness, and the Libyan people are paying for it. In the Libyan elite’s casino, the house always wins, and corruption is the chip that never runs out.”

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G20 summit calls for more aid to Gaza and an end to the war in Ukraine

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G20 summit calls for more aid to Gaza and an end to the war in Ukraine

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Leaders of the world’s 20 major economies called for a global pact to combat hunger, more aid for war-torn Gaza and an end to hostilities in the Mideast and Ukraine, issuing a joint declaration Monday that was heavy on generalities but short of details on how to accomplish those goals.

The joint statement was endorsed by group members but fell short of complete unanimity. It also called for a future global tax on billionaires and for reforms allowing the eventual expansion of the United Nation Security Council beyond its five current permanent members.

At the start of the three-day meeting which formally ends Wednesday, experts doubted Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva could convince the assembled leaders to hammer out any agreement at all in a gathering rife with uncertainty over the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, and heightened global tensions over wars in the Mideast and Ukraine.

Argentina challenged some of the language in initial drafts and was the one country that did not endorse the complete document.

“Although generic, it is a positive surprise for Brazil,” said Thomas Traumann, an independent political consultant and former Brazilian minister. “There was a moment when there was a risk of no declaration at all. Despite the caveats, it is a good result for Lula.”

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Condemnation of wars, calls for peace, but without casting blame

Taking place just over a year after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the declaration referred to the “catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza and the escalation in Lebanon,” stressing the urgent need to expand humanitarian assistance and better protect civilians.

“Affirming the Palestinian right to self-determination, we reiterate our unwavering commitment to the vision of the two-State solution where Israel and a Palestinian State live side by side in peace,” it said.

It did not mention Israel’s suffering or of the 100 or so hostages still held by Hamas. Israel isn’t a G20 member. The war has so far killed more than 43,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local health officials, and more than 3,500 people in Lebanon following Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.

The omitted acknowledgment of Israel’s distress appeared to run contrary to U.S. President Joe Biden’s consistent backing of Israel’s right to defend itself. It’s something Biden always notes in public, even when speaking about the deprivation of Palestinians. During a meeting with G20 leaders before the declaration was hammered home, Biden expressed his view that Hamas is solely to blame for the war and called on fellow leaders to “increase the pressure on Hamas” to accept a cease-fire deal.

Biden’s decision to ease restrictions on Ukraine’s use of longer-range U.S. missiles to allow that country to strike more deeply inside Russia also played into the meetings,

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“The United States strongly supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Everyone around this table in my view should, as well,” Biden said during the summit.

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not attend the meeting , and instead sent his foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov. Putin has avoided such summits after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant that obliges member states to arrest him.

The G20 declaration highlighted the human suffering in Ukraine while calling for peace, without naming Russia.

“The declaration avoids pointing the finger at the culprits,” said Paulo Velasco, an international relations professor at the State University of Rio de Janeiro. “That is, it doesn’t make any critical mention of Israel or Russia, but it highlights the dramatic humanitarian situations in both cases.”

The entire declaration lacks specificity, Velasco added.

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“It is very much in line with what Brazil hoped for … but if we really analyze it carefully, it is very much a declaration of intent. It is a declaration of good will on various issues, but we have very few concrete, tangible measures.”

Fraught push to tax global billionaires

The declaration did call for a possible tax on global billionaires, which Lula supports. Such a tax would affect about 3,000 people around the world, including about 100 in Latin América.

The clause was included despite opposition from Argentina. So was another promoting gender equality, said Brazilian and other officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.

Argentina signed the G20 declaration, bit also had issues with references to the U.N.’s 2030 sustainable development agenda. Its right-wing president, Javier Milei, has referred to the agenda as “a supranational program of a socialist nature.” It also objected to calls for regulating hate speech on social media, which Milei says infringes on national sovereignty, and to the idea that governments should do more to fight hunger.

Milei has often adopted a Trump-like role as a spoiler in multilateral talks hosted by his outspoken critic, Lula.

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Concrete steps for fighting global hunger

Much of the declaration focuses on eradicating hunger — a priority for Lula.

Brazil’s government stressed that Lula’s launch of the global alliance against hunger and poverty on Monday was as important as the final G20 declaration. As of Monday, 82 nations had signed onto the plan, Brazil’s government said. It is also backed by organizations including the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A demonstration Sunday on Rio’s Copacabana beach featured 733 empty plates spread across the sand to represent the 733 million people who went hungry in 2023, according to United Nations data.

Viviana Santiago, a director at the anti-poverty nonprofit Oxfam, praised Brazil for using its G20 presidency “to respond to people’s demands worldwide to tackle extreme inequality, hunger and climate breakdown, and particularly for rallying action on taxing the super-rich.”

“Brazil has lit a path toward a more just and resilient world, challenging others to meet them at this critical juncture,” she said in a statement.

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Long-awaited reform of the United Nations

Leaders pledged to work for “transformative reform” of the U.N. Security Council so that it aligns “with the realities and demands of the 21st century, makes it more representative, inclusive, efficient, effective, democratic and accountable.”

Lula has been calling for reform of Security Council since his first two terms in power, from 2003 to 2010, without gaining much traction. Charged with maintaining international peace and security, its original 1945 structure has not changed. Five dominant powers at the end of World War II have veto power — the U.S., Russia, China, Britain and France — while 10 countries from different regions serve rotating two-year terms.

Virtually all countries agree that nearly eight decades after the United Nations was established, the Security Council should be expanded to reflect the 21st century world and include more voices. The central quandary and biggest disagreement remains how to do that. The G20 declaration doesn’t answer that question.

“We call for an enlarged Security Council composition that improves the representation of the underrepresented and unrepresented regions and groups, such as Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean,” the declaration said.

The United States announced shortly before a U.N. summit in September that it supports two new permanent seats for African countries, without veto power, and a first-ever non-permanent seat for a small island developing nation. But the Group of Four – Brazil, Germany, India and Japan – support each other’s bids for permanent seats. And the larger Uniting for Consensus group of a dozen countries including Pakistan, Italy, Turkey and Mexico wants additional non-permanent seats with longer terms.

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Associated Press writers Aamer Madhani in Rio de Janeiro, Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations and Isabel DeBre in La Paz, Bolivia contributed.

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Foul play ruled out month after body of Walmart employee found inside walk-in oven at Canada store

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Foul play ruled out month after body of Walmart employee found inside walk-in oven at Canada store

A month after the body of a Walmart employee was found inside a walk-in oven of a store in eastern Canada, police have determined that her death was not suspicious.

The Halifax Police Department released a statement to announce that an investigation into the death of the 19-year-old woman, who was found inside the walk-in oven of the Halifax Walmart on Oct. 19, was not suspicious and there was no evidence of foul play.

“We do not believe anyone else was involved in the circumstances surrounding the woman’s death,” Halifax Regional Police Constable Martin Cromwell announced in a video update on the department’s Facebook page on Monday.

Cromwell added that they did not have many details they could share and did not expect any other updates anytime soon. 

WALMART EMPLOYEE FOUND DEAD INSIDE WALK-IN OVEN AT CANADA STORE: POLICE

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Authorities in Canada are continuing an investigation into the death of a 19-year-old employee at a Halifax Walmart bakery after police said there was no evidence of foul play. (Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images/File | GoFundMe)

“We acknowledge the public’s interest in this case and that there are questions that may never have answers,” said Cromwell. “Please be mindful of the damage public speculation can cause. This woman’s loved ones are grieving.”

Police have not yet released the name of the victim. However, the Gurudwara Maritime Sikh Society, an organization for Sikh immigrants, has identified the woman as Gursimran Kaur.

The group also created a GoFundMe page, which is no longer running, that raised more than $194,000 for Kaur’s family.

“Gursimran Kaur was only 19 years old, a young beautiful girl who came to Canada with big dreams,” a post on the website read.

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IDENTITY OF ‘BADLY DECOMPOSED’ BODY FOUND IN OHIO CAR WASH RELEASED: REPORT

The Walmart logo on a store

A woman was found dead inside a large walk-in oven at a Walmart store’s bakery department in Canada. (Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images/File)

According to the post, Kaur and her mother both worked at Walmart for the last two years.

During the evening of her daughter’s disappearance, the society executive said Kaur’s mother tried to find her after not having contact with her for an hour but brushed it aside, assuming she was helping a customer.

Kaur’s phone was reportedly also not reachable. 

“Mother started panicking as it was unusual for her to switch her phone off during the day. She reached out to the onsite admin for help,” the post continued.

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MISSOURI INFANT DIES AFTER MOTHER ‘ACCIDENTALLY’ PLACES BABY IN OVEN INSTEAD OF CRIB: POLICE

Walmart with police tape

It’s unclear how the woman died, authorities said. (KTTV)

Sadly, after a few hours, her daughter’s body was found inside a walk-in oven in the store’s bakery.

“Imagine the horror that her mother experienced when she opened the oven, when someone pointed it out to her!” the society executive described. “This family’s sufferings are unimaginable and indescribable.”

Both Kaur’s father and brother were both reportedly in India at the time of her death.

“Investigators met with family to share this update and extend condolences,” Halifax police said. “Our thoughts remain with them at this difficult time.”

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A spokesperson for Walmart previously told Fox News Digital that the store “will be closed until further notice.”

The Canadian Broadcasting Corp. reported that the store reopened on Monday and that the bakery oven was being removed from the store.

Fox News Digital reached out to Walmart for comment on the latest news but did not immediately receive a response.

Stepheny Price is writer for Fox News Digital and Fox Business. Story tips and ideas can be sent to stepheny.price@fox.com.

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Hong Kong jails all 45 pro-democracy activists in largest security case

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Hong Kong jails all 45 pro-democracy activists in largest security case

BREAKING,

Academic Benny Tai sentenced to 10 years, while others receive sentences of between four and seven years.

Taipei, Taiwan – A Hong Kong court has sentenced a leading pro-democracy advocate to 10 years in prison and handed dozens of other activists jail terms of between four and seven years in the Chinese territory’s largest national security case.

Benny Tai, a legal scholar who played a leading role in Hong Kong’s 2019 antigovernment protests, was handed the lengthy sentence on Tuesday after prosecutors cast him as the “organiser” of a conspiracy by pro-democracy activists and politicians dating back to July 2020.

Tai and 44 others were previously found guilty of offences related to organising an official primary election to choose pro-democracy candidates for the city’s legislature.

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The would-be legislators had hoped to vote down the city’s budget and force the city’s leader to dissolve the legislature.

Prosecutors alleged that the group plotted to “overthrow” the government.

Many of those arrested have been on remand since 2021, when they were first charged, due to numerous legal delays and the disruption caused by COVID-19.

Out of 47 defendants, 31 pleaded guilty.

In May, a court found 14 of the remaining activists guilty of subversion and acquitted two others, former district councillors Laurence Lau and Lee Yue-shu.

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Under Hong Kong’s national security laws introduced in 2020, defendants charged as “primary offenders” face a maximum punishment of life imprisonment, while lower-level offenders and “other participants” face sentences of between three and five years and up to three years, respectively.

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