World
Diplomatic failings and ‘elite bargains’ prolonging Libya turmoil: Analysts
After weeks of tension that saw the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) shuttered, salaries go unpaid and cash vanish, the country’s two rival governments appeared ready to accept a United Nations-brokered agreement to resume operations, before once more reverting to a deadlock familiar to many in the country.
The internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in the west had tried to replace CBL Governor Sadiq al-Kabir, accusing him of mishandling oil revenues and going to the extent of sending armed men in to remove him from his office.
Angered, the Government of National Unity (GNU) in eastern Libya, which is supported by renegade commander Khalifa Haftar, shut down much of the country’s oil production, which it controls, in protest.
“This is serious,” said Jalel Harchaoui, an associate fellow with London’s Royal United Services Institute. “The CBL, although weaker now than it was a few years ago, remains a linchpin to the nation’s access to hard currency.”
He added that the CBL funds most of Libya’s imports of food, medicines and other staples, which the country cannot last long without.
The clash is the latest battleground in the 13-year rivalry between political and military elites that has dogged Libya since the overthrow of long-term ruler Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.
Since then, various analysts say, life in Libya has deteriorated as fighting has continued between rival Libyans and as the international community has tried to preserve the rule of a political and military elite, convinced they are the best for stability and for the proclaimed goal of “unifying Libya”.
Why the central bank?
As well as holding Libya’s vast oil wealth, the CBL unified Libya’s eastern and western “central banks” in one body to manage the salaries of civil servants and soldiers from both governments and build confidence that recovery was possible.
After the GNA-GNU struggle over who would head the CBL, al-Kabir fled the country, claiming that he took the access codes for bank deposits with him, leaving the bank isolated from international financial networks.
Asim al-Hajjaji, director of the CBL compliance department, said international contacts had been restored, although Al Jazeera understands that most international trading remains suspended.
Meanwhile, oil exports have plunged to a new low, salaries are uncertain and everyday life for about six million Libyans is in turmoil.
“The United Nations is talking about talks, which is a sure sign we’re nowhere near resolution,” Tarek Megerisi, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said of negotiations to restart operations at CBL.
The West, which typically backs the GNA despite it being responsible for much of the uncertainty, “doesn’t know what to do, or really has the bandwidth to do it. They’re dealing with wars in Gaza and Ukraine,” he said.
“It’s just too much. In Libya, international efforts to achieve any kind of just settlement have lost momentum.”
And this is far from the first time.
Over more than a decade of uncertainty and war, analysts say, the international community’s efforts focused on shoring up the country’s elites in the hope that might lead to stability.
The latest talks over the CBL appear little different, with access to the millions of dollars in assets of primary interest to the country’s elites, and access to the services and certainty craved by much of the population seemingly an afterthought, analysts told Al Jazeera.
Elite bargains presiding over endless turmoil
“Preventing a shooting war has come to be seen as the only international strategy in Libya,” Tim Eaton, a senior fellow at Chatham House who contributed to a paper on the international practice of prioritising powerful elites, told Al Jazeera.
“It’s death by a thousand cuts,” Harchaoui said.
“Everyone’s talking about a return to the status quo as if there were ever a neat, static equilibrium,” he noted. “This was never the case. Even when things appeared quiet, the arrangements were continually decaying and degrading. And that gradual deterioration is what suddenly became visible last month with the CBL crisis.”
National elections, or even a framework that might lead to them, remain a distant prospect after the last vote, initially scheduled for December 2021, was postponed after infighting.
“Any move towards holding national elections has been blocked,” Eaton said. “Both [Abdul Hamid] Dbeibah [head of the GNA] and Haftar might say they want elections tomorrow, but they only really want their side, or at least their proxies, on the ballot paper.”
Both governments continue to rule separately, while their members, allies and militias profit from smuggling in both people and fuel and unregulated cross-border trade.
However, as individual members jockey for position within small and exclusive circles, systems intended to support everyday life in Libya continue to deteriorate and fail.
Eaton notes that the city of Derna, which flooded in September 2023 after a dam that the GNU was responsible for collapsed, remains unreconstructed.
“For healthcare, Libyans have to go overseas,” he noted. “And if anyone is ever caught in an emergency, there’s no one number or department they can call.
“All the while, the super-rich that are supposed to be looking after people, are getting even richer.”
Both sides, he explained, claim to work towards establishing a central government while state institutions needed to oversee any future state, like a strong central bank, have been hollowed out and captured by elites on either side.
Regionally, over its 13 years of sporadic conflict and political uncertainty, Libya has become a continued source of instability within an already unstable region.
Within a divided Libya, various actors have come to use the country’s east as a staging point from which to project their own international ambitions in Sudan, Syria and beyond.
Overwhelming human cost
In addition to the uncertainty piled on the Libyan population are the more than 1,000 refugees, irregular migrants and asylum seekers who have died or gone missing on the Central Mediterranean migration route, in which Libya is a key part, this year.
“The West and UN in Libya are performing diplomatic theatre while the country crumbles,” Anas El Gomati of the Sadeq Institute said.
“They have a toolbox of leverage gathering dust. Instead of applying pressure, they’re enabling corruption by legitimising those without electoral mandate or political credibility. That’s not diplomacy; that’s complicity in slow motion.”
El Gomati continued: “East or west, Libya’s compass points to chaos and corruption. Haftar and his kids carve out a fiefdom through war crimes in the east, while Dbeibah runs a ‘pay-as-you-go’ loyalty scheme with armed groups in the west.
“The irony? The elites don’t trust the very banking system they’ve bled dry, so they keep their assets overseas, which the West could freeze, but they’re too busy shaking hands with the very hands pickpocketing Libya’s future.
“Western policymakers and Libyan elites are locked in a race to the bottom of delusion and greed,” El Gomati concluded. “The West sees a finish line; the elites see an endless buffet. It’s not naivete, it’s willful blindness, and the Libyan people are paying for it. In the Libyan elite’s casino, the house always wins, and corruption is the chip that never runs out.”
new video loaded: U.K. Plans to Lower Voting Age in Major Electoral Reform
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U.K. Plans to Lower Voting Age in Major Electoral Reform
The British government said it wants to lower the voting age to 16 as part of a plan that has been described as the country’s largest expansion of voting rights in decades.
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“I’m really happy about it because I’ve always been kind of frustrated just watching politics and not being able to do anything. And I know loads of other people who feel the same, who are really interested in politics and get frustrated at watching all the older people vote. And I just think it would be really amazing because so many of these policies affect younger people.” “I think it’s really important to give the younger generation an opinion and a vote on a lot of the issues that are facing the U.K. today. So yeah, if I was back in my day, if I was 16 or 17 and I got the opportunity to vote, I think that would be really, really good. It would have got me thinking about the political issues, the economical issues as well, at an early age.” “I think it’s a great opportunity for us to have more of a say in our future. And because at the end of the day, we decide who we vote in, and then this affects our decisions that affect us, whether it be health care, education and ultimately, jobs in the end.”
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Brazilian police have reportedly searched the home and political headquarters of former President Jair Bolsonaro. On Friday, police confirmed they carried out “two search and seizure warrants,” but did not specify whether Bolsonaro was the target, but local media outlets are reporting that he was.
Bolsonaro has been ordered to wear an ankle monitor, according to the Associated Press. Additionally, Bolsonaro has reportedly been banned from using social media or contacting others under investigation, the Associated Press reported, citing local media. This would include his son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, a Brazilian lawmaker residing in the U.S. who is known for having ties to President Donald Trump.
Criminal police agents stand in front State Secretariat of Penitentiary Administration headquarters as the former President Jair Bolsonaro in Brasilia, Brazil July 18, 2025. (REUTERS/Adriano)
RUBIO BANS OUTPOSTS COMMENTING ON ELECTIONS UNLESS ‘CLEAR & COMPELLING’ US INTEREST
Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro arrives to the State Secretariat of Penitentiary Administration headquarters in Brasilia, Brazil July 18, 2025. (REUTERS/Adriano Machado)
Media outlets in Brazil are also reporting that the former president has been forbidden from leaving home between 7:00 p.m. and 7:00 a.m. Additionally, Bolsonaro is reportedly prohibited from contacting foreign ambassadors and diplomats.
Brazilian federal police searched former President Jair Bolsonaro’s home and political headquarters on July 18, 2025. (Reuters)
TRUMP CALLS FOR IMMEDIATE END TO ‘UNJUST’ TRIAL OF FORMER BRAZILIAN PRESIDENT JAIR BOLSONARO
On Thursday, Trump called for an immediate end to the trial, saying that Bolsonaro is the victim of an “unjust system.”
“I have seen the terrible treatment you are receiving at the hands of an unjust system turned against you. This should end immediately!” Trump wrote in a letter he sent to Bolsonaro, which the president posted on his Truth Social account Thursday evening.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
President Donald Trump is sending mixed messages about whether he will fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Trump said on July 16 he is “not planning on doing anything” when asked if he would fire Powell. However, he also said he doesn’t “rule out anything” and mentioned a renovation project with ballooning costs.
“I think it’s highly unlikely unless he has to leave for fraud,” Trump said. “And it’s possible there’s fraud involved with the $2.5, $2.7 billion renovation. This is a renovation, how do you spend $2.7 billion? And he didn’t have proper clearance.”
The Federal Reserve has been undergoing building renovations since 2021 on a project that the board that controls the Fed first approved in 2017. The project’s cost of $2.5bn is about $600m above the original budget, according to The Associated Press.
The cost has increased because of design changes, increasing labour and material costs and “unforeseen conditions”, such as “more asbestos than anticipated”, the Fed said in an FAQ.
But Trump’s administration seems to be using the renovation as a possible reason to oust Powell. Russ Vought, director of the Office of Management and Budget, sent Powell a July 10 letter saying the project is “out of compliance with the approved plan” and “in violation of” the National Capital Planning Act, which outlines how agencies can make changes to federal buildings.
Trump’s feud with Powell isn’t new. For months, the president has criticised Powell, whom he appointed to the role in 2017, for refusing to drop interest rates. The Fed raised interest rates in 2022 and 2023 during former President Joe Biden’s administration as a response to inflation.
Since Trump entered the White House in January, he has told Powell to resign and threatened to fire him.
“If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me,” Trump said in April. “I’m not happy with him.”
In November, after the 2024 election, reporters asked Powell if he would step down or whether he thought Trump had the authority to fire him.
“Not permitted under the law,” Powell said.
Trump spoke to a group of Republican lawmakers on July 15 about firing the chair, several news organisations reported. Trump showed lawmakers a draft letter firing Powell, The New York Times reported.
Trump denied having written a letter.
“No, I talked about the concept of firing him. I said, ‘What do you think?’ Almost every one of them said I should,” Trump said. “But I’m more conservative than they are.”
While Trump attributed his reticence to fire Powell to his “conservatism”, the bigger impediment is a question of legality. Here’s why.
What is the role of the Federal Reserve; who appoints its chair?
The Federal Reserve is the country’s central bank. Its responsibilities include setting interest rates and supervising and regulating banks. It was created in 1913 as part of the Federal Reserve Act and is run by an independent board of governors. The seven governors that make up the board are nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate. The president selects the chair and two vice chairs from among the seven, according to the Congressional Research Service.
While talking to reporters, Trump appeared to overlook that he was the person who nominated Powell to be the chair in 2017: “I’m surprised he was appointed,” Trump said. “I was surprised, frankly, that Biden put him in and extended him.”
In 2021, Biden nominated him for a second four-year term, which is set to end in May 2026. After that, Powell can remain on the board of governors until January 2028.
Can the president fire the Federal Reserve chair?
Unlike other government agencies, the Fed has a lot of independence from Congress and the White House, the Congressional Research Service said in a January report.
According to the report, economists have justified the independence, saying that decisions about monetary policy shouldn’t be influenced by political pressures. To ensure Fed accountability, the chair testifies before Congress, much like other government agencies.
The Fed chair can be removed “for cause by the President”, according to the law. This refers to “inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance in office”, according to a Supreme Court decision about the Federal Trade Commission.
In May, the Supreme Court ruled on Trump’s authority to fire members of two different independent agencies. In its 6-3 ruling, the Court granted the Trump administration’s emergency request to fire the heads of the agencies while the case over the legality of firing them played out in the courts.
In its opinion, the Supreme Court addressed the Fed, saying its ruling didn’t affect the agency.
“The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States,” the Supreme Court said.
Some legal experts question the legality of Trump firing Powell. Any move to oust him would likely end up in the courts.
Peter Conti-Brown, a professor of financial regulation at the University of Pennsylvania, said the Fed’s building renovation costs aren’t “cause” for Powell’s dismissal.
“There is no factual basis to support any conclusion that the cost overruns on the renovation project constitute anything like fraud or gross negligence,” Conti-Brown said. “Had Powell committed fraud, in this context or any other, there could well be a case for his removal.”
Conti-Brown said that Trump has long talked about wanting Powell’s removal. A court may consider Trump citing the renovation’s budget as “pretext” for his firing – a legal term used to describe a false reason an employer gives for firing an employee in order to cover the real reason, Conti-Brown said.
“Courts evaluating any attempted removal after the fact will assess both the animus and pretext very heavily against President Trump,” Conti-Brown said.
However, it is unclear how courts would react because “this is uncharted legal territory”, Jeremy Kress, a former Fed banking regulator who is a faculty director of the University of Michigan’s Center on Finance, Law and Policy, told The New York Times.
Lev Menand, a legal scholar at Columbia University, agreed with Kress.
“In normal times, I would say Powell wins 10 times out of 10,” Menand told The New York Times. “But these aren’t normal times, because this court has shown that it is willing to look the other way when the president engages in illegal conduct and it is willing to construe the president’s power under the Constitution as so broad as to allow the president to flout laws.”
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