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Diplomatic failings and ‘elite bargains’ prolonging Libya turmoil: Analysts

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Diplomatic failings and ‘elite bargains’ prolonging Libya turmoil: Analysts

After weeks of tension that saw the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) shuttered, salaries go unpaid and cash vanish, the country’s two rival governments appeared ready to accept a United Nations-brokered agreement to resume operations,  before once more reverting to a deadlock familiar to many in the country.

The internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in the west had tried to replace CBL Governor Sadiq al-Kabir, accusing him of mishandling oil revenues and going to the extent of sending armed men in to remove him from his office.

Angered, the Government of National Unity (GNU) in eastern Libya, which is supported by renegade commander Khalifa Haftar, shut down much of the country’s oil production, which it controls, in protest.

“This is serious,” said Jalel Harchaoui, an associate fellow with London’s Royal United Services Institute. “The CBL, although weaker now than it was a few years ago, remains a linchpin to the nation’s access to hard currency.”

He added that the CBL funds most of Libya’s imports of food, medicines and other staples, which the country cannot last long without.

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The clash is the latest battleground in the 13-year rivalry between political and military elites that has dogged Libya since the overthrow of long-term ruler Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

Since then, various analysts say, life in Libya has deteriorated as fighting has continued between rival Libyans and as the international community has tried to preserve the rule of a political and military elite, convinced they are the best for stability and for the proclaimed goal of “unifying Libya”.

Why the central bank?

As well as holding Libya’s vast oil wealth, the CBL unified Libya’s eastern and western “central banks” in one body to manage the salaries of civil servants and soldiers from both governments and build confidence that recovery was possible.

After the GNA-GNU struggle over who would head the CBL, al-Kabir fled the country, claiming that he took the access codes for bank deposits with him, leaving the bank isolated from international financial networks.

Asim al-Hajjaji, director of the CBL compliance department, said international contacts had been restored, although Al Jazeera understands that most international trading remains suspended.

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Soldiers guard the gate of the Central Bank of Libya in Tripoli, on August 27, 2024 [Yousef Murad/AP Photo]

Meanwhile, oil exports have plunged to a new low, salaries are uncertain and everyday life for about six million Libyans is in turmoil.

“The United Nations is talking about talks, which is a sure sign we’re nowhere near resolution,” Tarek Megerisi, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said of negotiations to restart operations at CBL.

The West, which typically backs the GNA despite it being responsible for much of the uncertainty, “doesn’t know what to do, or really has the bandwidth to do it. They’re dealing with wars in Gaza and Ukraine,” he said.

“It’s just too much. In Libya, international efforts to achieve any kind of just settlement have lost momentum.”

And this is far from the first time.

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Over more than a decade of uncertainty and war, analysts say, the international community’s efforts focused on shoring up the country’s elites in the hope that might lead to stability.

The latest talks over the CBL appear little different, with access to the millions of dollars in assets of primary interest to the country’s elites, and access to the services and certainty craved by much of the population seemingly an afterthought, analysts told Al Jazeera.

Elite bargains presiding over endless turmoil

“Preventing a shooting war has come to be seen as the only international strategy in Libya,” Tim Eaton, a senior fellow at Chatham House who contributed to a paper on the international practice of prioritising powerful elites, told Al Jazeera.

“It’s death by a thousand cuts,” Harchaoui said.

“Everyone’s talking about a return to the status quo as if there were ever a neat, static equilibrium,” he noted. “This was never the case. Even when things appeared quiet, the arrangements were continually decaying and degrading. And that gradual deterioration is what suddenly became visible last month with the CBL crisis.”

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National elections, or even a framework that might lead to them, remain a distant prospect after the last vote, initially scheduled for December 2021, was postponed after infighting.

“Any move towards holding national elections has been blocked,” Eaton said. “Both [Abdul Hamid] Dbeibah [head of the GNA] and Haftar might say they want elections tomorrow, but they only really want their side, or at least their proxies, on the ballot paper.”

Both governments continue to rule separately, while their members, allies and militias profit from smuggling in both people and fuel and unregulated cross-border trade.

Members of Libyan National Army (LNA) commanded by Khalifa Haftar, get ready before heading out of Benghazi to reinforce the troops advancing to Tripoli
Members of the so-called ‘Libyan National Army’, commanded by Khalifa Haftar, get ready to head out of Benghazi to reinforce troops advancing to Tripoli, in Benghazi on April 13, 2019 [Esam Omran Al-Fetori/Reuters]

However, as individual members jockey for position within small and exclusive circles, systems intended to support everyday life in Libya continue to deteriorate and fail.

Eaton notes that the city of Derna, which flooded in September 2023 after a dam that the GNU was responsible for collapsed, remains unreconstructed.

“For healthcare, Libyans have to go overseas,” he noted. “And if anyone is ever caught in an emergency, there’s no one number or department they can call.

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“All the while, the super-rich that are supposed to be looking after people, are getting even richer.”

Both sides, he explained, claim to work towards establishing a central government while state institutions needed to oversee any future state, like a strong central bank, have been hollowed out and captured by elites on either side.

Regionally, over its 13 years of sporadic conflict and political uncertainty, Libya has become a continued source of instability within an already unstable region.

Within a divided Libya, various actors have come to use the country’s east as a staging point from which to project their own international ambitions in Sudan, Syria and beyond.

FILE PHOTO: Governor of Central Bank of Libya, Siddiq al-Kabir gestures during an interview with Reuters in Tripoli, Libya
Ex-Governor of CBL Siddiq al-Kabir in an interview with Reuters in Tripoli on September 1, 2021 [Hazem Ahmed/Reuters]

Overwhelming human cost

In addition to the uncertainty piled on the Libyan population are the more than 1,000 refugees, irregular migrants and asylum seekers who have died or gone missing on the Central Mediterranean migration route, in which Libya is a key part, this year.

“The West and UN in Libya are performing diplomatic theatre while the country crumbles,” Anas El Gomati of the Sadeq Institute said.

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“They have a toolbox of leverage gathering dust. Instead of applying pressure, they’re enabling corruption by legitimising those without electoral mandate or political credibility. That’s not diplomacy; that’s complicity in slow motion.”

El Gomati continued: “East or west, Libya’s compass points to chaos and corruption. Haftar and his kids carve out a fiefdom through war crimes in the east, while Dbeibah runs a ‘pay-as-you-go’ loyalty scheme with armed groups in the west.

“The irony? The elites don’t trust the very banking system they’ve bled dry, so they keep their assets overseas, which the West could freeze, but they’re too busy shaking hands with the very hands pickpocketing Libya’s future.

“Western policymakers and Libyan elites are locked in a race to the bottom of delusion and greed,” El Gomati concluded. “The West sees a finish line; the elites see an endless buffet. It’s not naivete, it’s willful blindness, and the Libyan people are paying for it. In the Libyan elite’s casino, the house always wins, and corruption is the chip that never runs out.”

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Malaysia says it will resume search for wreckage of missing Flight MH370

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Malaysia says it will resume search for wreckage of missing Flight MH370
Malaysia has agreed in principle to resume the search for the wreckage of missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, its transport minister said on Friday, more than 10 years after it disappeared in one of the world’s greatest aviation mysteries.
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Iran expands weaponization capabilities critical for employing nuclear bomb

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Iran expands weaponization capabilities critical for employing nuclear bomb

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The Islamic Republic of Iran has continued its pursuit of obtaining a nuclear weapon by not only stockpiling enriched uranium to near-weapons grade purity, it has expanded its covert actions in developing its weaponization capabilities. 

According to information obtained by sources embedded in the Iranian regime and supplied to the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), an opposition organization based out of D.C. and Paris, there are indications that Tehran has once again renewed efforts to advance its ability to detonate a nuclear weapon.

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At the head of Iran’s detonators program is an organization the NCRI has dubbed METFAZ, which is the Farsi acronym for the Center for Research and Expansion of Technologies on Explosions and Impact, and its recent movements at a previously deactivated site, known as Sanjarian, has drawn immense speculation.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies has analyzed where Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is located. (Foundation for Defense of Democracies)

IRAN HIDING MISSILE, DRONE PROGRAMS UNDER GUISE OF COMMERCIAL FRONT TO EVADE SANCTIONS

“Our information shows the METFAZ has expanded its activities, intensified activities, and their main focus is basically the detonation of the nuclear bomb,” Alireza Jafarzadeh, deputy director of the NCRI in the U.S., told Fox News Digital. “When you make a bomb, you have the fissile material at the center of it, but you need to be able to trigger it, to detonate it, and that’s a sophisticated process.

“It’s important to see what METFAZ does and follow their activities because that is sort of like a gauge on figuring out where the whole nuclear weapons program is,” he added. 

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Iran has at least a dozen sites across the country dedicated to nuclear development, weaponization, research and heavy water production, but information shared with Fox News Digital suggests that there has been an increase in covert activity in at least two of these locations, including Sanjarian, which was once one of Iran’s top weaponization facilities. 

The Sanjarian site, located roughly 25 miles east of Tehran and once central to Iran’s nuclear program under what is known as the Amad Plan, was believed to have been largely inactive between 2009 and late 2020 after stiff international pushback on Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran nuclear

The Sanjarian site in 2017, when the NCRI announced that its activities had moved to Plan 6 in Parchin. (Image provided by the NCRI)

Though by October 2020 renewed activity had returned to the area under the alleged guise of a filming team, first captured through satellite imagery and which the Islamic Republic used to justify why vehicles had reportedly been regularly parked outside the formerly top nuclear site. 

In 2022, trees were planted along the entrance road to the compound, effectively blocking satellite imagery from monitoring vehicles stationed there, before a security gate was then believed to have been installed in May 2023, according to information also verified by the Institute for Science and International Security. 

Iran nuclear

Sanjarian in 2024 (Image provided by the NCRI)

Now, according to details supplied by on-the-ground sources to the NCRI this month, top nuclear experts have been seen regularly visiting the site since April 2024 and are believed to be operating under the front company known as Arvin Kimia Abzaar, which claims to be affiliated with the oil and gas industry, a sector in which Iran has long attempted to conceal its activities. 

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Jafarzadeh said one of the executives of the Arvin Kimia Abzaar company is Saeed Borji, who has been a well-known member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps since 1980 and has long headed METFAZ.

METFAZ falls under Iran’s Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research, which is widely known to security experts as the organization spearheading Iran’s nuclear development and is suspected of using the Sanjarian site for renewed research on exoloding bridgewire (EWB) detonators. 

Iran has previously attempted to conceal its EBW detonators program, a system first invented in the 1940s to deploy atomic warheads but which has expanded into non-military sectors, under activities relating to the oil industry.

In a 2015 report, the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), noted that Iran’s detonator development was an “integral part of a program to develop an implosion-type nuclear explosive device.”

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It also highlighted how Iran attempted to conceal its program by alleging during a May 20, 2014, meeting that the detonator program dating back to 2000-2003 was related to Tehran’s aerospace industry and was needed to “help prevent explosive accidents” but which the IAEA determined was “inconsistent with the timeframe and unrelated to the detonator development program.”

Iran nukes

Technicians work at the Arak heavy water reactor’s secondary circuit as officials and media visit the site in December 2019. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran/AP)

During the same 2014 meeting, Iran claimed that “around 2007 its oil and gas industry had identified a requirement for EBW detonators for the development of deep borehole severing devices.”

FALL OF SYRIA’S BASHAR ASSAD IS STRATEGIC BLOW TO IRAN AND RUSSIA, EXPERTS SAY

The IAEA assessed that while the application of EBW detonators, which are fired within “sub-microsecond simultaneity,” are “not inconsistent with specialized industry practices,” the detonators that Iran has developed “have characteristics relevant to a nuclear explosive device.”

“The Iranian regime has really basically, over the years, used deceptive tactics – lies, stalling, playing games, dragging [their feet], wasting time,” Jafarzadeh said when asked about this report. “That’s the way they’re dealing with the IAEA, with the goal of moving their own nuclear weapons program forward without being accountable for anything.”

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The IAEA did not respond to Fox News Digital’s questions on the NCRI’s most recent findings, which were shared with the nuclear watchdog this week, and it remains unclear what advancements or research Iran continues to pursue in the detonator field.

Iran rocket space

The launch of a Simorgh, or “Phoenix,” rocket is shown at the Imam Khomeini Space Launch Terminal in Iran’s Semnan province on Dec. 6, 2024. (Iranian Defense Ministry via AP)

“While the international community and the IAEA have mainly focused on the amount and the enrichment level of uranium Tehran possesses, which would provide fissile material for the bomb, the central part, namely the weaponization, has continued with little scrutiny,” Jafarzadeh told Fox News Digital.

The NCRI also found that METFAZ, which operates out of a military site known as Parchin some 30 miles southeast of Tehran, has expanded its Plan 6 complex where it conducts explosive tests and production.

Parchin, which is made up of several military industrial complexes, was targeted in Israel’s October 2024 strikes. According to the Institute for Science and International Security, the strikes destroyed “multiple buildings” within the complex, including a “high explosive test chamber” known as Taleghan 2.

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Iran’s layered approach to its nuclear program, which relies on networks operating under the guise of privately owned companies, false operations and immense ambiguity, has made tracking Tehran’s nuclear program difficult for even agencies dedicated to nuclear security, like the IAEA, Jafarzadeh said.

“The regime has used deceptive tactics to prevent any mechanism for verification, and it has yet to provide an opportunity or the means for the IAEA to have a satisfactory answer to the inquiries it has raised,” he told Fox News Digital. “Our revelation today shows that the regime has no transparency related to its program for building an atomic bomb and is moving towards building the bomb at a rapid pace.”

The NCRI confirms that neither the Sanjarian site nor Parchin’s Plan 6 have ever been inspected by the IAEA.

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At least eight migrants drown after boat collision off Greece’s coast

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At least eight migrants drown after boat collision off Greece’s coast

Authorities say at least eight people died after the driver lost control of the boat as he attempted to flee.

At least eight refugees and migrants have drowned off the coast of Greece after the coastguard chased a boat they were on in the Aegean Sea.

The speedboat capsized near the island of Rhodes as it attempted to flee a Greek patrol vessel, authorities said on Friday, adding that 18 people were rescued.

A coastguard statement said the driver “lost control” of the boat, causing several passengers to fall overboard.

Coastguard vessels retrieved eight bodies as a helicopter from the Hellenic Air Force searched for survivors. It remains unclear how many people were on board.

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Greek authorities said they detected the vessel as it attempted to disembark people near Afandou Beach, on the eastern coast of the Greek island of Rhodes.

Greek media outlet Kathimerini reported that the boat collided with the coastguard’s vessel during the chase, adding that the driver of the boat was arrested.

Greece has seen a 25-percent rise this year in the number of migrant and refugee arrivals, with a 30-percent rise in Rhodes and the southeast Aegean, according to the Ministry of Migration and Asylum.

In late November, nine people, including six minors and two women, died after two boats sank in separate incidents near the islands of Samos and Lesbos.

Another five people died in a sinking near the island of Crete earlier this month.

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Greece has been accused of adopting an increasingly hostile approach towards migration in recent years. Its coastguard has been repeatedly accused by asylum seekers and humanitarian organisations of capsizing boats by trying to tow them or prevent their disembarkation on its coasts.

The European Union also found evidence of human rights abuses at the recently constructed, EU-funded refugee camps on the Greek Aegean islands, including allegations of sexual and other violence against children.

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