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NORTH SALT LAKE — Utah Gov. Spencer Cox couldn’t help but notice how green southern Utah has gotten on his last several trips to the region, which he finds both awe-inspiring and potentially dangerous.

“The St. George area looks like northern Utah. I’ve never seen it so green,” he said, as he stood on the luscious green foothills by Tunnel Springs Park in Utah’s northern half Monday morning. (It’s) great until it’s not, right? Because that just means there’s so much more to burn.”

Meteorologists with the Great Basin Coordination Center agree, asserting that Utah’s “epic” snow season could give way to a “mixed bag” regarding the state’s summer fire danger. The agency’s Great Basin Predictive Services issued an updated wildfire danger outlook on Thursday. It calls for below-normal fire conditions this month before moving into more normal conditions through September.

That said, it all depends on when vegetation begins to dry out, particularly in nonmountainous parts of the state, says Basil Newmerzhycky, a fire meteorologist for the federal agency. He explains that “very busy” fire seasons are possible after wet winters, which is the primary concern by the end of this summer if the summer monsoons don’t deliver relief.

“We’re calling for normal conditions through Utah but … toward the latter half of July, we do have significant concerns,” he said. “Our prognosis, if I had to sum it up in one or two sentences, is a cooler and less-active start to the fire season in June through early July, and then a rapid transition in the lower elevations to increased fire activity for the latter half (of the summer).”

How this winter influenced Utah’s fire forecast

Utah’s wildfire season is off to a very slow start mainly because of how much moisture the state has received this water year. The Utah Wildfire Dashboard, operated by state and federal land managers, notes that there have only been 99 wildfire starts this year, less than half of where things were at the same point two years ago.

The state collected 11.7 inches of precipitation between October 2022 and April, its fifth-highest total during the seven-month stretch since statewide data collection began in 1895, according to National Centers for Environmental Information data. The agency is expected to add May data later this week.

Nevertheless, it’s a much different situation than the past three years, where the state averaged almost 6.5 inches of precipitation during the same period of time. The 30-year normal between October and April is 8.37 inches, which just goes to show how much precipitation Utah has received over the past few months.

The fire risks in Utah’s higher elevation areas are currently “better at this point than they have in many, many years” as a result, Newmerzhycky said. Some of these areas are still melting off the state’s record 30-inch snowpack, too.

But all the precipitation also led to lots of new vegetation growth in lower elevation areas. Gina McGuire Palma, a fire meteorologist with the Great Basin Coordination Center, explained in a video the agency posted last week that high soil moistures in parts of Utah, Idaho and Nevada are causing more cheatgrass to grow, which is an invasive species in the region.

“We are seeing second crops of cheatgrass already popping up over the northern half of the Great Basin with this recent moisture over the last few weeks. As those soil moistures remain high, that will continue with the growing season,” she said.

Newmerzhycky adds there are also more weeds and brush, too. And while it’s green now, he said those and other vegetation can quickly dry out. In fact, he said some of it is already “starting to cure out” in parts of the state after a “relatively dry” May.

Our big concern is when will (the vegetation) really start yellowing out, curing out?

– Basil Newmerzhycky, fire meteorologist at Great Basin Predictive Services

Meanwhile, experts say an El Niño pattern is emerging after three-straight La Niña winters. This switch in oceanic patterns has the potential to delay or suppress the normal monsoonal patterns that typically develop in mid-July and linger into August and September, based on past trends, Newmerzhycky said.

Yet the forecast currently calls for normal fire conditions during the second half of summer because the agency can’t confirm what will happen just yet. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s long-range outlook currently lists most of Utah as in “equal chances” through August, meaning there’s no clear signal as to whether it will be a dry or wet summer overall.

“Our big concern is when will (the vegetation) really start yellowing out, curing out?” he said. “What is likely to happen is that we will probably not see the moisture effects of the monsoon, at least not like it has been the last several years.”

The agency issues updated outlooks at the beginning of every month. Southern Utah would likely be at the highest risk if the normal monsoonal pattern doesn’t emerge, officials said.

McGuire Palma points out that Utah, Nevada and parts of Idaho typically do have their largest fire seasons between drought periods because of the new growth and dry-out, at least based on the past decade of drought cycles. However, with the uncertainty in fire risk this year, she said this year could also be a “transition year” before fire risks increase next year.

The forecast seems to be less of a question mark for the Pacific Northwest, which may have ramifications for Utah. The National Geographic Area Coordination Center lists eastern Washington and Central Oregon as already having above-normal fire danger this month.

The forecast calls for that to extend through most of the Pacific Northwest and into parts of Nevada by August before subsiding some in September. Even then, a large chunk of the region is expected to remain in above-normal fire danger. Newmerzhycky said this could lead to more events where unhealthy wildfire smoke wafts into Utah, much like what happened with Canadian wildfires for a weekend in May.

“The bad part is that a lot of times the steering flow is that northwesterly flow,” he said. “We could be in a situation where we get a lot of smoke coming from those fires as we go through the summer months.”

Preparing for the fire risks

Cox says he does worry that this year’s precipitation could lead to “complacency” when it comes to fire safety this summer. It’s why the state plans to continue with its “Fire Sense” campaign that launched in 2021, during the middle of the state’s most recent drought. It aims to continue to educate Utahns about the risks outdoors.

“When you see this green all around, you think, ‘Oh, I don’t have to worry about it this year’ but oftentimes these grasses will dry out,” the governor said, motioning to the green foothills behind him. “Before they even turn yellow they are dry enough to burn.”

Tips to avoid starting fires include:

• Review fire conditions in an area before doing anything that can start a fire.
• Check with fire authorities and weather forecasts before burning any debris and have resources on-hand to stop any out-of-control fires.
• Extinguish campfires completely before leaving a site, pouring water and stirring ashes until it’s no longer warm.
• Don’t drive on dry grass and make sure your vehicle isn’t dragging chains.
• Don’t target shoot near dry grass or vegetation. Avoid shooting rocks or metal containers, and use soft targets instead. Exploding targets and tracer ammunition are not allowed on public lands.
• Only launch fireworks when and where they are legal. The legal launching period is July 2-5 and July 22-25, and they are also not allowed on public lands.

Cox also said Monday that he believes there is enough state funding set aside for wildfire suppression costs this summer without making adjustments to the budget as the state Legislature did for flooding and landslide issues last month.

“Nobody knows exactly what it’ll be like in July and August,” he said, “but right now we feel very good about where we are.”

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