Utah
Why Utah’s wildfire outlook is a ‘mixed bag’ this year
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NORTH SALT LAKE — Utah Gov. Spencer Cox couldn’t help but notice how green southern Utah has gotten on his last several trips to the region, which he finds both awe-inspiring and potentially dangerous.
“The St. George area looks like northern Utah. I’ve never seen it so green,” he said, as he stood on the luscious green foothills by Tunnel Springs Park in Utah’s northern half Monday morning. (It’s) great until it’s not, right? Because that just means there’s so much more to burn.”
Meteorologists with the Great Basin Coordination Center agree, asserting that Utah’s “epic” snow season could give way to a “mixed bag” regarding the state’s summer fire danger. The agency’s Great Basin Predictive Services issued an updated wildfire danger outlook on Thursday. It calls for below-normal fire conditions this month before moving into more normal conditions through September.
That said, it all depends on when vegetation begins to dry out, particularly in nonmountainous parts of the state, says Basil Newmerzhycky, a fire meteorologist for the federal agency. He explains that “very busy” fire seasons are possible after wet winters, which is the primary concern by the end of this summer if the summer monsoons don’t deliver relief.
“We’re calling for normal conditions through Utah but … toward the latter half of July, we do have significant concerns,” he said. “Our prognosis, if I had to sum it up in one or two sentences, is a cooler and less-active start to the fire season in June through early July, and then a rapid transition in the lower elevations to increased fire activity for the latter half (of the summer).”
How this winter influenced Utah’s fire forecast
Utah’s wildfire season is off to a very slow start mainly because of how much moisture the state has received this water year. The Utah Wildfire Dashboard, operated by state and federal land managers, notes that there have only been 99 wildfire starts this year, less than half of where things were at the same point two years ago.
The state collected 11.7 inches of precipitation between October 2022 and April, its fifth-highest total during the seven-month stretch since statewide data collection began in 1895, according to National Centers for Environmental Information data. The agency is expected to add May data later this week.
Nevertheless, it’s a much different situation than the past three years, where the state averaged almost 6.5 inches of precipitation during the same period of time. The 30-year normal between October and April is 8.37 inches, which just goes to show how much precipitation Utah has received over the past few months.
The fire risks in Utah’s higher elevation areas are currently “better at this point than they have in many, many years” as a result, Newmerzhycky said. Some of these areas are still melting off the state’s record 30-inch snowpack, too.
But all the precipitation also led to lots of new vegetation growth in lower elevation areas. Gina McGuire Palma, a fire meteorologist with the Great Basin Coordination Center, explained in a video the agency posted last week that high soil moistures in parts of Utah, Idaho and Nevada are causing more cheatgrass to grow, which is an invasive species in the region.
“We are seeing second crops of cheatgrass already popping up over the northern half of the Great Basin with this recent moisture over the last few weeks. As those soil moistures remain high, that will continue with the growing season,” she said.
Newmerzhycky adds there are also more weeds and brush, too. And while it’s green now, he said those and other vegetation can quickly dry out. In fact, he said some of it is already “starting to cure out” in parts of the state after a “relatively dry” May.
Our big concern is when will (the vegetation) really start yellowing out, curing out?
– Basil Newmerzhycky, fire meteorologist at Great Basin Predictive Services
Meanwhile, experts say an El Niño pattern is emerging after three-straight La Niña winters. This switch in oceanic patterns has the potential to delay or suppress the normal monsoonal patterns that typically develop in mid-July and linger into August and September, based on past trends, Newmerzhycky said.
Yet the forecast currently calls for normal fire conditions during the second half of summer because the agency can’t confirm what will happen just yet. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s long-range outlook currently lists most of Utah as in “equal chances” through August, meaning there’s no clear signal as to whether it will be a dry or wet summer overall.
“Our big concern is when will (the vegetation) really start yellowing out, curing out?” he said. “What is likely to happen is that we will probably not see the moisture effects of the monsoon, at least not like it has been the last several years.”
The agency issues updated outlooks at the beginning of every month. Southern Utah would likely be at the highest risk if the normal monsoonal pattern doesn’t emerge, officials said.
McGuire Palma points out that Utah, Nevada and parts of Idaho typically do have their largest fire seasons between drought periods because of the new growth and dry-out, at least based on the past decade of drought cycles. However, with the uncertainty in fire risk this year, she said this year could also be a “transition year” before fire risks increase next year.
The forecast seems to be less of a question mark for the Pacific Northwest, which may have ramifications for Utah. The National Geographic Area Coordination Center lists eastern Washington and Central Oregon as already having above-normal fire danger this month.
The forecast calls for that to extend through most of the Pacific Northwest and into parts of Nevada by August before subsiding some in September. Even then, a large chunk of the region is expected to remain in above-normal fire danger. Newmerzhycky said this could lead to more events where unhealthy wildfire smoke wafts into Utah, much like what happened with Canadian wildfires for a weekend in May.
“The bad part is that a lot of times the steering flow is that northwesterly flow,” he said. “We could be in a situation where we get a lot of smoke coming from those fires as we go through the summer months.”
Preparing for the fire risks
Cox says he does worry that this year’s precipitation could lead to “complacency” when it comes to fire safety this summer. It’s why the state plans to continue with its “Fire Sense” campaign that launched in 2021, during the middle of the state’s most recent drought. It aims to continue to educate Utahns about the risks outdoors.
“When you see this green all around, you think, ‘Oh, I don’t have to worry about it this year’ but oftentimes these grasses will dry out,” the governor said, motioning to the green foothills behind him. “Before they even turn yellow they are dry enough to burn.”
Tips to avoid starting fires include:
- Review fire conditions in an area before doing anything that can start a fire.
- Check with fire authorities and weather forecasts before burning any debris and have resources on-hand to stop any out-of-control fires.
- Extinguish campfires completely before leaving a site, pouring water and stirring ashes until it’s no longer warm.
- Don’t drive on dry grass and make sure your vehicle isn’t dragging chains.
- Don’t target shoot near dry grass or vegetation. Avoid shooting rocks or metal containers, and use soft targets instead. Exploding targets and tracer ammunition are not allowed on public lands.
- Only launch fireworks when and where they are legal. The legal launching period is July 2-5 and July 22-25, and they are also not allowed on public lands.
Cox also said Monday that he believes there is enough state funding set aside for wildfire suppression costs this summer without making adjustments to the budget as the state Legislature did for flooding and landslide issues last month.
“Nobody knows exactly what it’ll be like in July and August,” he said, “but right now we feel very good about where we are.”
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The depth continues to be tested as the bodies keep dropping out of the lineup up front. Tonight, a resilient Maple Leafs team is seeking its fourth consecutive win as Alex Nylander debuts on an all-Marlies line against a tired 8-9-2 Utah Hockey Club (7:00 p.m. EST, TSN4).
Head-to-Head Stats: Maple Leafs vs. Utah
In the 2024-25 regular season statistics, Utah holds the advantage in three out of five offensive categories and three out of five defensive categories.
Game Day Quotes
Craig Berube on what he learned from the pre-scout of Utah’s 6-1 win over Pittsburgh last night:
The power play was good. They got three. They’re fast, and they have a lot of skill. They make a lot of plays — a lot of west-west plays — and get up the ice really well. Their D are involved.
We have to check well tonight. We have to stay out of the penalty box. Our PK is going to be important.
Overall, we need to take time and space away from this team right out of the offensive zone. Be hard on them breaking plays up. That will be very important tonight.
Berube on the decision to start Joseph Woll over Anthony Stolarz tonight:
[Woll] had a really good game against Vegas. We are just thinking ahead here. Stolly has played a lot. We have some time here. He is working in practice and doing a lot of good things.
That’s really it. We just talk about things and make decisions on what we think is best for the goalies and the team.
I talked earlier about how both goalies are going to see more net than they have in the past. It is important that we manage it to the best of our abilities.
Woll is coming off a real solid game against a real good team. We wanted to go back with him.
Berube on what improvements he is looking for from his team offensively after a week of practice:
Attacking more than we are. There are times when we tend to just control the play a little bit too much on the outside. We could attack more with more shots to the net, get pucks low to high, and do more on-and-off shooting while getting people to the net with numbers around there.
Resets to the back of the net, making quick plays out of there, doing things a little bit quicker, moving it quicker, supporting it quicker, and getting more pucks to the net than we are.
Berube on why Fraser Minten is so trustworthy despite his lack of experience:
It goes back to a great draft pick, finding a player who is so responsible at a young age. You guys aren’t on the bench, but just hearing him talk on the bench and how he sees the game, he says all the right things.
You don’t see young guys do that very often. He is already doing it at a very young age with very little experience. It is great to see. It’s refreshing. It really is.
Minten on the keys to success for his line with Nikita Grebenkin and Alex Nylander:
We just have to be simple with pucks and forecheck, using our speed to get pucks back on the forecheck. From there, let the skill make things happen. Those guys are really good when they get it back, so we have to make sure we are forechecking hard to retrieve pucks, and we’ll go from there.
Minten on the keys to success in the net-front role on the top power-play unit:
Try not to overcomplicate it too much. Get the goalie’s eyes, get in sight lines, try to get pucks back, get some tips, get some screens, and cause a little chaos. You can draw a defender with you. If you’re going backdoor, you give them a little more space. Be ready for anything coming to you. They are great players, so just try to read off of them, and hopefully, it goes well.
Minten on his experience level in front of the net on the power play:
In junior, I was mostly a flank guy with the puck more, but last year, I kind of got into it more at the end of the year, and I have been playing that role with the Marlies every game so far this year.
Minten on Morgan Rielly’s guidance at the NHL level:
He has been amazing. We have a lot in common, being from the same place. He took me under his wing a little bit and has been super nice. It makes it easy when you are coming in at 18 or 19 and there is a guy who comes to talk to you and is a really nice, supportive guy and friend. He has been awesome.
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
#74 Bobby McMann — #91 John Tavares — #16 Mitch Marner
#89 Nick Robertson— #29 Pontus Holmberg — #88 William Nylander
#71 Nikita Grebenkin — #39 Fraser Minten — #92 Alex Nylander
#46 Alex Steeves — #24 Connor Dewar — #18 Steven Lorentz
Defensemen
#22 Jake McCabe — #8 Chris Tanev
#44 Morgan Rielly — #95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson
#2 Simon Benoit — #25 Conor Timmins
Goaltenders
Starter: #60 Joseph Woll
#41 Anthony Stolarz
Extras: Jani Hakanpää, Philippe Myers
Suspended: Ryan Reaves (four games remaining)
Injured (IR): Auston Matthews, Max Domi, Matthew Knies
Injured (LTIR): Calle Jarnkrok, Dakota Mermis, Max Pacioretty, David Kampf
Utah Hockey Club Projected Lines
Forwards
#9 Clayton Keller — #27 Barrett Hayton — #8 Nick Schmaltz
#22 Jack McBain — #92 Logan Cooley — #11 Dylan Guenther
#63 Matias Maccelli — #17 Nick Bjugstad — #67 Lawson Course
#15 Alex Kerfoot — #82 Kevin Stenlund — #53 Michael Carcone
Defensemen
#98 Mikhail Sergachev — #2 Olli Maata
#28 Ian Cole — #10 Maveric Lamoureux
#7 Michael Kesselring — #41 Robert Bortuzzo
Goaltenders
Starter: #70 Karel Vejmelka
Jayson Stauber
Injured: Sean Durzi, John Marino, Connor Ingram
Welcome to the NHL On Tap, a daily look at the games on the NHL schedule. There is one game on the schedule for Sunday, which will be televised nationally in the United States and Canada.
Game of the day
Utah Hockey Club at Toronto Maple Leafs (7 p.m. ET; TVAS, TSN4, NHLN, Utah16)
Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares have all stepped up for the Maple Leafs (12-6-2) in the absence of captain Auston Matthews and look to continue the trend against Utah (8-9-3) at Scotiabank Arena. Marner has 12 points (four goals, eight assists), Nylander nine points (four goals, five assists) and Tavares eight points (four goals, four assists) in the seven games without Matthews, who is out with an upper-body injury. Toronto has won three in a row and is 6-1-0 without Matthews, who skated prior to practice Saturday and said he could return from an upper-body injury this upcoming week. Marner leads Toronto with 26 points (six goals, 20 assists) in 20 games and has points in six of the seven games Matthews has missed. Maple Leafs goalie Joseph Wall made 31 saves in a 3-0 win against the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday for his first shutout of the season and second in the NHL. Utah is playing the second game of a back-to-back for the first time in team history and will look to build on a 6-1 win at the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday. Dylan Guenther had two goals and an assist, and Clayton Keller had three assists, helping Utah end a three-game losing streak. Goalie Jaxson Stauber could make his Utah debut after being recalled from Tucson of the American Hockey League on Wednesday; the 25-year-old has not played an NHL game since Feb. 22, 2023, with the Chicago Blackhawks. No. 1 goalie Connor Ingram has missed the past two games with an upper-body injury.
It takes a complete football team to win a championship. Iowa State is finding that out with each passing week.
Seemingly left for dead in the heated Big 12 Conference race, the Cyclones now find themselves one win away from competing for the league title following a thrilling 31-28 victory over Utah Saturday night.
Iowa State (9-2, 7-2) reached the nine-win mark before a bowl game for the first time in program history, and could end one of the longest droughts in NCAA history by reaching 10 wins. The Cyclones and Vanderbilt are the only remaining Power 5 programs to never reach 10 wins, as Indiana did earlier this year.
After taking a 24-13 lead on Utah midway through the third quarter, the Cyclones needed a rally, scoring the game-winning touchdown with 91 seconds to go. The defense forced a missed field goal to seal the win.
Here are three stars from Iowa State’s win over Utah:
Known for his power running, Carson Hansen showed off his arm on a key third-down trick play that led to his second rushing touchdown. Hansen, a sophomore, took a halfback pass and found Gabe Burkle for a 26-yard completion.
That put the ball at the Utah 3 and Hansen would plow his way into the end zone on the next play for the game-winning points. He finished the night with a team-high 57 yards on 14 carries to go along with the 26-yard pass while also catching two balls for another 28 yards.
At 6-2 and over 220 pounds, Hansen is the thunder to Abu Sama’s lightning. He now has 11 rushing touchdowns on the year to go along with 560 yards after rushing for just 67 last season as a freshman.
Anytime Rocco Becht needed to make a big play in the passing game, he looked in the direction of Jayden Higgins. And Higgins stepped up for his quarterback, who was not quite as sharp as he typically has been.
Higgins finished with nine receptions for 155 yards and a touchdown, surpassing 1,000 yards for the season. The 6-foot-4 senior out of South Miami became just the seventh different Cyclone to reach the number after missing out last year with 983 yards.
With at least two, and maybe more, games to go, Higgins sits sixth on the school’s single-season list for yards with 1,015. Hakeem Butler is first with 1,318. Higgins and teammate Jaylin Noel, who has 976 yards, are set to become the first Cyclone teammates to eclipse 1,000 yards in the same season in school history.
Higgins is also just two yards away from becoming just the 10th Iowa State receiver to reach 2,000 career yards, joining the likes of Allen Lazard, Xavier Hutchinson and Charlie Kolar, along with Noel.
It’s been a difficult season in regards to injuries on both sides of the ball for Iowa State. But the defense has really been hurt with Malik Verdon out.
Verdon, a junior, recorded a team-leading 12 tackles including a sack, as the Cyclones held Utah to just 99 yards of total offense through three quarters.
And while the Utes were able to finally put together sustained drives in the fourth, when they needed to make a play, Iowa State did. Verdon went out for a short time after appearing to reinjure his arm that has a cast due to a hairline fracture, but would return to the field later in the fourth.
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