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From Germany to Romania: the elections that will define Europe in 2025

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From Germany to Romania: the elections that will define Europe in 2025

Voting in Europe during 2025 promises major political shifts – Germany’s snap Bundestag vote, Romania’s presidential race, Poland’s referendum on Tusk’s government and the rise of populist forces in Czechia, Norway and beyond. These contests could reshape the future of the European Union.

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If 2024 was a year marked by elections around the world – featuring Donald Trump’s return to power in the US, the consolidation of right-wing parties in the EU elections, a political shift in the UK from the Conservatives to Labour, and the re-election of Narendra Modi in India – 2025 promises to bring its own set of surprises in Europe.

Here’s a round-up of the key elections taking place in 2025 and what we can expect:

Germany: back in the European political game ?

After the Bundestag’s vote of no-confidence on Chancellor Olaf Scholz on 16 December 2024, snap elections are due to take place on 23 February 2025.

The electoral campaign has been marked by the attack on Magdeburg’s Christmas market on 20 December by a doctor, who is also refugee from Saudi Arabia. Though attacker held Islamophobic views, according to Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, and expressed support for the Alternative für Deutschland (AFD) party, the incident has nonetheless crystallised anti-immigration sentiment in a region of eastern Germany already won over by the AFD.

The AfD is currently polling at 20%, second behind the CDU/CSU (32%), which has capitalised on the rejection of the SPD-Grunen-FDP coalition. The CDU is headed by Friedrich Merz, a potential future chancellor, who is proposing a policy that is more economically liberal than under Merkel and more conservative socially, for example on the issue of migration.

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Merz, who rose during the Helmut Khol era, is committed to a more integrated Europe. He wants to relaunch relations with France and Poland, criticises Europe’s heavy dependence on the United States and calls for Taurus Cruise missiles to be sent to Ukraine.

Romania: a tense presidential race after foreign meddling and the rise of anti-EU populism

Romania will hold new presidential elections in 2025 after the Constitutional Court annulled the first round of voting. The court’s decision came following concerns over foreign interference in an election where the centrist, pro-EU candidate Elena Lasconi and far-right, pro-Russian candidate Călin Georgescu advanced to the second round. 

The ruling followed evidence of Russian interference in the election, particularly the artificial boost Georgescu received on social media platforms, notably TikTok. Until then, Georgescu was relatively unknown to the public, but his online support alarmed authorities. 

Meanwhile, the legislative elections, which were not annulled, saw a victory for the Social Democrats. 

A new presidential vote is expected to take place in the first half of 2025. Official proceedings launched by the European Commission against TikTok under the Digital Services Act will provide deeper insight into how the platform’s algorithms function during elections. 

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Poland: a test of Tusk’s government approval amid strong right-wing opposition

The upcoming presidential elections in May in Poland are shaping up to feel like a referendum on the government led by Donald Tusk, in power since December 2023, which unites parties from the left to the centre-right. While it is Prime Minister Tusk (Civic Platform) who holds significant sway over day-to-day governance, the President still plays a crucial role. Current President Andrzej Duda from the Law and Justice (PiS) opposition party, who has held the position for eight years prior to Tusk’s return, has used his veto power to block many of the government’s policies. 

The presidential race is now a showdown between candidates from the two main parties: Rafał Trzaskowski, the Mayor of Warsaw for Civic Platform (PO), and Karol Nawrocki, a historian, who will represent PiS. Although the race is tight, opinion polls suggest that the Civic Platform is likely to emerge victorious. 

Italy: local elections challenge the stability of a government on shaky ground

An important electoral test awaits Giorgia Meloni next September, as elections will be held in six regions: Puglia, Campania, Le Marche, Tuscany, Valle d’Aosta, and Veneto. These elections will offer a snapshot of Italian public opinion on the relatively stable Meloni government, at least by Italian standards. Last November, coalition parties were outflanked by the centre-left coalition in the regional elections in Emilia-Romagna and Umbria – a setback for Meloni. 

The Veneto region will come under particular scrutiny, given its large population and long history of being governed by the populist League, a key player in the ruling coalition. 

In Puglia, MEP Antonio Decaro, chair of the Environment committee and of the Democratic Party could run as governor.

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Czech Republic: the risk of a strong Europhobic axis in Central Europe

In Czechia, parliamentary elections will take place in October 2025.

The latest polls give ANO (which sits with The Patriots in the European Parliament), led by populist Andrej Babiš, 34.5% of the vote, well ahead The Civic Democratic Party (ODS) – with ECR in the EP-, led by conservative Prime Minister Petr Fiala, expected to win 13.7%, followed by the center-right STAN party (EPP) – 11%.

Babis’ victory would strengthen a far-right axis in Central Europe, which includes Hungary’s Victor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico. The billionaire former prime minister has been dubbed the “Czech Trump”. Anti-elite and anti-migrant, he is also opposed to more European Union integration and shows complacency towards Russia. Many fear attacks against democracy in Czechia if he returns to power. 

Croatia: the reelection of a ‘nationalist’

Croatians will elect their President of the Republic in a second round run-off on 12 January. Zoran Milanovic, the current head of state, is standing for re-election. Heis running as an independent but is supported by a coalition led by the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

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Zoran Milanovic took everyone by surprise during the parliamentary elections last April when he decided to run as head of the SDP list in Zagreb. His candidacy was rejected by the Constitutional Court.

The president calls himself a “nationalist.” He is opposed to the government’s support for Ukraine and the participation of Croatian soldiers in the NATO-led mission to train Ukrainian soldiers. He leads with 37,4% in the polls, ahead of Andrej Plenkovic (20,8%), the candidate supported by the prime minister’s party, the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) – which sits with the European People Party (EPP) at the European Parliament – and advocates strengthening Croatia’s ties with its Western allies.

United Kingdom: will Labour’s victory last year translate into lasting support?

On 1 May, the UK will hold its first elections since last July’s general election, which saw the Labour Party return to power and Keir Starmer become Prime Minister. 

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This vote for England’s county councils will serve as a key test for Labour, revealing whether their victory last year will be the beginning of lasting support for the party.

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According to Sky News, polls suggest that Labour and the Conservatives are currently neck and neck in the mid-20% range – a historically low level of backing for both parties – with Reform UK, Nigel Farage’s populist party, trailing by just five points. Reform UK currently holds no seats in local councils. 

Belarus: an election with a silenced opposition

The 2020 Belarusian presidential election was marred by widespread electoral fraud, violent repression of the opposition and brutal crackdowns on protesters challenging the results. The election, which saw dictator Alexander Lukashenko claim a disputed victory with 80% of the vote, was widely condemned, with the European Union and other countries refusing to recognise the outcome. Alexander Lukashenko has been in power since 1994. 

Since then, Belarusian human rights group Viasna has reported that over 50,000 people have been arrested on political grounds. 

With the next election scheduled for 26 January, little is expected to change. Lukashenko has already warned that he may cut off internet access entirely during the 2025 presidential race if protests akin to those of 2020 erupt, according to state-run news outlet Belta in November. 

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Russia: a foregone conclusion

In the upcoming Russian elections next September, voters will casting their ballot for the Duma by-elections to fill vacant seats in the lower house of parliament, as well as for governors in 18 regions, regional parliaments in 11 regions, and local government representatives across various areas.

However, there are growing concerns regarding the fairness of these elections. Media freedom remains severely restricted, and political opponents continue to face harsh repression, personified by the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. These issues cast a long shadow over the integrity of the electoral process. 

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Norway: will the EU’s rightward shift reach Norway?

On 8 September, Norway will hold parliamentary elections that will decide the makeup of the 169-seat Storting and indicate who might become the next prime minister. Jonas Gahr Støre, leader of the centre-left Labour Party, currently holds the position. 

As seen across Europe, the latest polls suggest a shift towards right-wing parties. The far-right Progress Party is expected to come out on top – its 10% share of the vote in 2021 is predicted to double by 2025. Hot on their heels is the centre-right Conservative Party, led by former Prime Minister Erna Solberg. 

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Ireland: turning the page after Higgins

No official date has been set yet, but the Irish will head to the polls by November 2025 to elect a new president, ending the popular Michael D. Higgins’ 14 years in office. Although largely ceremonial, the role of the President holds significant constitutional responsibilities, such as signing bills into law and representing Ireland on the global stage. 

While no candidates have formally entered the presidential race, Irish media outlet The Journal is speculating on potential contenders. Among the names mentioned are familiar faces from Brussels: former European Commissioner Mairead McGuinness and former MEP Frances Fitzgerald – both from the centre-right party Fine Gael. 

The upper house of the Irish Parliament, the Seanad, will also be renewed, though through an indirect process. Forty-nine senators will be elected by university graduates, while 11 will be appointed by the Prime Minister and vocational panels. Final results are expected from 30 January. These elections follow the dissolution of the lower house, the Dáil, on 8 November. 

Georgia: will the local elections confirm the country’s pro-Russian orientation as pro-Europe protests continue?

In October 2025, Georgia will hold elections, one year after the disputed parliamentary elections won by the Georgian Dream party which as been widely accused of being pro-Russian. The country is the site of a struggle for influence between Russia and the West,  while Russian troops have occupied 20% of Georgian territory since 2008.

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The new government’s decision on 28 November to postpone the country’s EU accession process until 2028 provoked a wave of demonstrations in Tbilisi and other cities across the country. Georgia gained EU candidate status in December 2023, but the process was halted by the EU, citing the country’s democratically unstable conditions.

29 December marked the end of pro-European President Salome Zurabishvili’s term in office, who was replaced by the pro-Russian former footballer Mikheil Kavelashvili. He was elected on 14 December by the parliament in which Georgian Dream has a majority, in a vote that was boycotted by the opposition. As the stranglehold on pro-European forces intensifies, demonstrators have faced a heavy-handed response by the authorities. Meanwhile, Salome Zurabishvili refuses to recognise the new president and stand down from her position. 

Moldova: pro-Russian ambush as parliamentary elections scheduled for 2025

As a buffer state to Ukraine, Moldavia is facing attempts at Russian interference with a disinformation campaign. The referendum on accession to the European Union in autumn 2024 went down to the wire in favour of the “Yes” camp (50.35%). Meanwhile, the pro-European president Maia Sandu was re-elected in a second round of voting.

For the 2025 legislative elections, the President’s party (The Party of Action and Solidarity – PAS) is playing for keeps. If it fails to win a majority, it will have to contend with other political forces, not all of which supported the “Yes” vote in the referendum. For Maia Sandu, these elections will be “a final battle” in Moldova’s road to EU membership, in a country where pro-Russian political opposition remains strong.

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Albania: the same two political parties fighting for power

In Albania, President Bajram Begaj has set parliamentary elections for 11 May 2025 after a consultation was boycotted by the main opposition Democratic Party (DP), which accused the president of endorsing a pre-determined date by the Socialist Party.

Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialist Party and the DP are playing for big stakes in this election: the DP will be attempting to put an end to the Socialist Party’s three successive terms in office. The country has been in the throes of a serious political crisis for several years, the political debate being highly polarised between the DP and the socialists, heir to the communist regime and Enver Hoxha’s Party of Labour. 

The opposition has accused the government of sending opposition figures to prison for political reasons. This lack of political plurality coupled with domestic resistance to fighting corruption makes EU accession talks challenging, with the negotiations for EU membership having officially started in 2022.

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In May 2025, for the first time, Albanians living abroad will have the opportunity to vote. 

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Kosovo: will the pro-independence party keep its majority ?

In Kosovo, the Self-Determination Movement (Vetëvendosje), Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s party, is well set to win again in the parliamentary elections in February 2025. Since his landslide supermajority victory in 2021, the opposition has lacked leaders capable of challenging Kurti.

After the February’s poll, the question will be whether his party will be able to secure a majority or whether it will have to include opposition parties or representatives of the Serbian community in the government.

Srpska Lista, the Serbian ethnic party, has close ties with Serbia which does not recognise Kosovo’s independence which was declared in 2008 and is backed by key Western powers. After being refused the right to run for Parliamentary seats by the electoral commission, Srpska Lista was finally on 25 December granted the right to compete by an appeals body.

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How Cheap Drones Are Changing Wars Like the Ones in Ukraine and Iran

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How Cheap Drones Are Changing Wars Like the Ones in Ukraine and Iran

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A 3-D rendering of an Iranian Shahed-136 drone, a device with two triangle-shaped wings attached to a central fuselage. It has an engine the size of a small motorcycle’s and carries 110 pounds of explosives.

Engine the size of a small motorcycle’s

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Carries 110 pounds of explosives

One of the biggest takeaways of the war with Iran is that it has proven itself to be a surprisingly capable adversary against the United States. In addition to its willingness to go on the offensive, Iran has forced the U.S. and its regional allies to confront the rise of cheap drones on the battlefield.

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Iranian drones, made with commercial-grade technology, cost roughly $35,000 to produce. That is a fraction of the cost of the high-tech military interceptors sometimes used to shoot them down.

Note: Estimated price of munitions per unit. In practice, multiple interceptors are fired when targeting a drone. For instance, with the $80 bullet fired by the Centurion Counter-Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar (C-RAM), 75 rounds are fired in a second. Sources: Department of Defense, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Open Source Munitions Portal, SRC Inc, U.S. Army and U.S. Navy.

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Cheap drones changed the war in Ukraine, and they have enabled Iranians to exploit a gap in American defense investments, which have historically prioritized accurate but expensive solutions.

Countering drones has been a major priority for the Pentagon for years, according to Michael C. Horowitz, who was a Pentagon official in the Biden administration. “But there has not been the impetus to scale a solution,” he said.

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In just the first six days, the U.S. spent $11.3 billion on the war with Iran. The White House and Pentagon have not provided updated estimates, but the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank, estimated in early April that the U.S. had spent approximately between $25 and $35 billion on the war, with interceptors driving much of the cost. Many missile defense experts also fear interceptor stockpiles are now running dangerously low.

Here is a breakdown of some of the ways the U.S. and its allies have countered Iran’s drones, and why it can be so costly.

Air-based strikes

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In an ideal scenario, an early warning aircraft spots a drone when it is still several hundred miles out from a target, and a fighter jet, like an F-16, is dispatched from a military base. The F-16 can then use Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) II rockets to shoot a drone from about six miles away.

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A 3-D rendering of an F-16 fighter jet firing an APKWS II rocket from under one wing. Two to three rockets are fired per drone, as per air defense protocol. Two APKWS II rockets and an hour of F-16 flight cost approximately $65,000, a little less than twice that of the Iranian Shahed-136.

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Two to three interceptors fired per drone

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Source: U.S. Navy, Department of Defense

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These types of defensive air patrols are cost-efficient, but haven’t always been available because of the vast scope of the conflict. Iran has also targeted early warning aircraft that the U.S. needs to detect a drone from that distance, according to NBC News.

The other option for detecting and shooting down drones is a variety of different ground-based detection systems, but these systems are all at a disadvantage, as their ability to spot low-flying drones is limited by the curvature of the earth.

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Anti-drone defense systems

One ground-based defense system the U.S. and its allies have built specifically to counter drones at a shorter range is the Coyote. It can intercept drones up to around nine miles away.

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A 3-D rendering of a Coyote Block 2 interceptor, which looks like a three-foot tube with small rockets at one end. Two Coyotes cost approximately $253,000 or about seven times that of the Iranian Shahed-136.

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The Coyote is significantly cheaper than many of the other ground-based defense systems available to the U.S. and its allies and historically effective at defending important assets. But despite being both effective and cost-efficient, relatively few Coyotes have been procured by the U.S. military in recent years.

When Iran-backed militias launched attacks on U.S. ground troops in the region in 2023 and 2024, there were so few Coyotes available that troops had to shuffle the systems between eight different bases in the region almost daily, according to a report from the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank.

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Ship-based anti-missile defenses

Many of the longer-range ground-based defense systems the U.S. and its allies can use to combat drones are more expensive, as they are designed to shoot down aircraft and ballistic missiles, not drones. A Navy destroyer’s built-in radar system, for instance, can detect drones from 30 miles away and shoot it down with Standard Missile 2 (SM-2) interceptors. As in the air-based strikes, military protocol stipulates that at least two missiles be fired.

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A 3-D rendering of the deck of a Navy destroyer firing an SM-2 missile from a built-in launcher, which looks like a 15-foot missile launching from a grid of openings on the ship’s surface. Two SM-2 missiles cost approximately $4.2 million, about 120 times that of the Iranian Shahed-136.

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This misalignment between America’s defense systems and current warfighting tactics started after the Cold War, when the anticipated threats were fewer, faster, higher-end projectiles, not mass drone raids.

Iran often launches multiple Shahed-136 drones at a time, given their low price tag. The drones are also programmed with a destination before launch and can travel roughly 1,500 miles, putting targets all across the Middle East within reach.

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“This category of lower-cost precision strike just didn’t exist at the time that most American air defenses were developed,” said Mr. Horowitz.

Ground-based anti-missile defenses

The Army’s standard air-defense system is the Patriot. Typically stationed at a military base, it can shoot down a drone from up to around 27 miles away with PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement interceptors. Military protocol stipulates that at least two missiles be fired.

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A 3-D rendering of a Patriot launcher loaded with 17-foot PAC-3 MSE missiles, which looks like a tilted shipping container with scaffolding. Two PAC-3 MSE missiles cost approximately $8 million, about 220 times that of the Iranian Shahed-136.

Patriot missile defense system

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Air defense training teaches service members to prioritize using longer-range defense systems first to “get as many bites at the apple as you can,” but those are the most expensive, said Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow and director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security.

But a costly defense can still make economic sense to protect a valuable target, especially those that are difficult to repair or replace, such as the nearly $1.1 billion radar at a military base in Qatar and the $500 million air defense sensor at a base in Jordan that were damaged early in the conflict.

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Ground-based guns

Finally, there is what one might call a last resort: a ground-based gun. When a drone is about a mile away or less than a minute from hitting its target, something like the Centurion C-RAM can begin rapidly firing to take down the drone.

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A 3-D rendering of a Centurion C-RAM, which looks like a gun mounted to a rotating, cylindrical stand. The gun fires 75 rounds of ammunition per second. Five seconds of firing the gun costs $30,000, slightly less than a single Iranian Shahed-136.

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Centurion Counter-Rocket, Artillery and Mortar

Fires 375 rounds of ammunition in 5 seconds

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Even though it is fairly cost-effective, the Centurion C-RAM is not the best option because it has such a short range.

Interceptor drones

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There’s also what one might call the future of fighting drones: A.I.-powered interceptor drones. Interceptor drones like the Merops Surveyor can theoretically hunt and take down enemy projectiles from a short range.

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A 3-D rendering of a Surveyor drone, which looks like a three-foot tube with wings and a tail. The Merops drone costs approximately $30,000, a little less than a single Iranian Shahed-136.

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Merops system: Surveyor drone

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Eric Schmidt, the former Google chief executive, founded a company to develop the Merops counter-drone system in conjunction with Ukrainian fighters, who have already been combatting Iranian drones in the war with Russia for years.

The U.S. sent thousands of Merops units to the Middle East after the conflict began, but it is unclear whether they have been deployed. The military set up training on the system in the middle of the war, as reported by Business Insider.

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Other attempts to lower the cost-per-shot ratio of taking out a drone have failed.

The Pentagon invested over a billion dollars in fiscal year 2024 researching directed energy weapons, or lasers, that would cost only $3 per shot and have a range of 12 miles. Those systems have yet to be used in the field.

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Despite the cost imbalance, the real fear for many in the defense community is the depleted stockpile of munitions.

“What scares me is that we will run out of these things,” said Tom Karako, the director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Not that we can’t afford them, but that we’ll run out before we can replace them.”

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Moscow-born gunman dead after Kyiv shooting rampage leaves at least 6 dead, 14 wounded: Zelenskyy

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Moscow-born gunman dead after Kyiv shooting rampage leaves at least 6 dead, 14 wounded: Zelenskyy

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A Russian gunman was killed by special forces Saturday in Ukraine after opening fire at a supermarket in Kyiv, killing six people and wounding 14 others — including a 12‑year‑old boy.

The 58-year-old shooter long resided in the Donetsk region and was born in Moscow, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko.

He took at least four hostages, killed one of them, and fatally shot four others on the street, Zelenskyy said. Another woman died at a hospital from her injuries.

Graphic video captured by witnesses showed the gunman shooting at a victim within close range on the street. Other bodies were seen lying on the pavement and in courtyards.

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The gunman was seen walking with a weapon on the street. (Obtained by Will Stewart)

MANHUNT UNDERWAY AFTER GUNMEN STORM CHICK-FIL-A LEAVING 1 DEAD

Ukranian special forces stormed the convenience store after 40 minutes of failed negotiations, according to Klymenko.

At least fourteen people were wounded in the attack, though officials cautioned the number may rise as people continue to seek medical assistance.

Among the injured is a 12‑year‑old boy and a supermarket security guard, according to Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko.

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The gunman was pictured dead in the convenience store. (Obtained by Will Stewart)

NINE DEAD, 13 WOUNDED IN SECOND TURKISH MASS SHOOTING IN TWO DAYS

Zelenskyy said the shooter also set fire to an apartment prior to the attack, though it is unclear if any injuries resulted from the arson.

“My condolences to the families and loved ones of the victims,” Zelenskyy wrote in an X post. “…We wish all the wounded a swift recovery.”

The gunman had previously been prosecuted for criminal offenses, but held a valid weapons permit, according to authorities. Investigators from the National Police and the Security Service of Ukraine are investigating.

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The gunman was seen holding and shooting a weapon in the street. (Obtained by Will Stewart)

GUNMAN OPENS FIRE AT HIGH SCHOOL IN TURKEY, WOUNDING AT LEAST 16

Ukraine’s security service labeled the attack an act of terrorism.

“All available information about him and the motives behind his actions is being thoroughly investigated,” Zelenskyy said. “Every detail must be verified.”

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One of the shooter’s neighbors, Hanna Kulyk, 75, described him as an “educated, refined man,” who lived alone and did not socialize often.

“You’d never guess he was some kind of criminal,” Kulyk told The Associated Press.

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Iran navy says any ship trying to pass Strait of Hormuz will be targeted

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Iran navy says any ship trying to pass Strait of Hormuz will be targeted

Top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says US naval blockade of Iran’s ports is ‘a clumsy and ignorant decision’.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGC) says the Strait of Hormuz is closed and that any ship that attempts to pass through the waterway will be targeted, a dramatic reversal less than 24 hours after the critical shipping lane was reopened.

In a statement carried by Iran’s Student News Agency, the IRGC navy said on Saturday the strait will be closed until the United States lifts its naval blockade on Iranian vessels and ports. It said the blockade was a violation of the ongoing ceasefire agreement in the US-Israel war on Iran.

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“We warn that no vessel of any kind should move from its anchorage in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, and approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered cooperation with the enemy, and the offending vessel will be targeted,” it said.

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Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker and a senior negotiator in talks between Washington and Tehran on ending the war, said in a television interview that “the Strait of Hormuz is under the control of the Islamic Republic”.

“The Americans have been declaring a blockade for several days now. This is a clumsy and ignorant decision,” he added.

The reassertion of control came just hours after Iran had briefly reopened the strait, in line with a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Oil prices dropped on global markets after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that the waterway was “completely open for all commercial vessels.”

More than a dozen commercial ships passed through the waterway before the IRGC reversed course.

Iranian gunboats reportedly fired on two commercial ships on Saturday, according to United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). India’s Ministry of External Affairs also said that two Indian-flagged ships were involved in a “shooting incident” in the strait.

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Some merchant vessels in the region received radio messages from the IRGC Navy, warning that no ships were being allowed through the strait.

US President Donald Trump said Tehran could not blackmail Washington by closing the waterway and warned that he would put an end to the ceasefire if a deal before its expiry on Wednesday is not reached. Trump added that the naval blockade would “remain in full force”.

Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, meanwhile, said the navy was ready to inflict “new bitter defeats” on its enemies.

‘Two competing blockades’

Al Jazeera correspondent Zein Basravi said that Iran and the US are back where they were the previous day.

“Less than 24 hours ago, world leaders were praising what they thought was a breakthrough in this conflict, hoping Iran was signalling a confidence-building measure by opening the Strait of Hormuz, potentially leading to a ceasefire deal and a permanent end to the war,” he said.

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“As disappointed as people may be, this isn’t entirely surprising. What we’re seeing now is a return to square one,” he added, saying there are now “two competing blockades in place”.

Al Jazeera’s Ali Hashem, reporting from Tehran, said Iran was using the strait to send a message.

“It’s clear that Iran is dealing with a situation in which they are not sure what’s on the table. So the Strait of Hormuz is once again the only space for engagement, even if it’s a negative engagement. And it’s the space where they are sending and conveying messages to the Americans, showing their leverage,” he said.

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