Oregon

What is the 2024 forecast for Oregon wildfires? Experts weigh in

Published

1 year ago

June 25, 2024

Press Room

What is the 2024 forecast for Oregon wildfires? Experts weigh in

By most metrics, Oregon is heading into wildfire season in better shape than recent years.

There’s no drought statewide in June for the first time since 2017, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

It’s been a relatively cool late spring and early summer. And forecasters say the transition from El Niño to La Niña weather patterns could mean a wetter than normal summer.

“We’re in a pretty good spot,” said Jessica Neujahr, wildfire spokeswoman for the Oregon Department of Forestry. “It’s actually a little bit similar to what we used to see heading into fire seasons in the 1990s and 2000s.”

With the exception of southeast Oregon’s rangeland, most of the state is forecast to see normal, or maybe even below normal, fire activity.

“I think the region as a whole will end up with below normal fire activity,” Jon Bonk, fire weather meteorologist for the Northwest Coordination Center, said at a meeting where he briefed Oregon’s congressional delegation on the upcoming fire season.

But Bonk, and every other forecaster, also was quick to highlight how difficult wildfires are to predict. Just one east winds storm, lightning burst or human-caused fire can change the shape of an entire season.

The 2020 wildfire season — the worst in Oregon’s history — had very little fire activity until a historic east windstorm hit in early September. Hotter summers and more people in the forest also make forecasting wildfires more difficult than ever.

With wildfire, you just never know until it happens.

“It’s all about confidence, and I wouldn’t say we have the confidence to say it’s going to be a below normal fire season,” Bonk said.

Active wildfires already rolling in central and southwest Oregon

Oregon already has seen some impactful wildfires this season.

The Upper Applegate Fire took flight in southwest Oregon last week, burning 830 acres and bringing evacuation warnings south of Medford, before a crew of more than 400 firefighters and numerous aircraft got it under control.

The Long Bend Fire near Maupin burned more than 1,000 acres, brought evacuation warnings and closed two popular campgrounds. On the Deschutes River — normally packed with rafts — helicopters could be seen dipping water to fight the blaze.

“Even in this type of year, we’re still going to see some large wildfires,” said John Saltenberger, fire weather program manager for NWCC.

Neujahr said the number of fires so far this year was about normal.

Fire season normally begins in northwest Oregon in July

Northwest Oregon typically enters fire season around early July. The rest of the state enters fire season earlier and is in fire season currently.

That doesn’t mean campfire prohibitions — that wouldn’t come until later. But it usually does mean that debris burning is no longer allowed without a permit and there are other limits on open flames.

Why might this be a quieter wildfire season in Oregon?

In projecting a quieter wildfire season, Bonk looked at drought, fuel moisture, long-term weather projections and other factors. But one place he zeroed in on was the transition from an El Niño to La Niña weather pattern.

He looked at past years with similar conditions and picked out 2010 and 2016 as “analog years” where weather patterns were similar to this year. Both of those turned out to be some of the state’s quietest wildfire seasons. In 2010, about 87,000 acres burned, and in 2016, 220,000 acres burned — both well below normal.

Over the past decade, Oregon has burned an average of over 600,000 acres per year.

“We’re expecting more onshore flow from the Pacific, which typically means higher precipitation amounts and more frequent weather systems,” he said. “The thunderstorms (instead of coming from inland) tend to come off the Pacific with more moisture.”

Bonk said that in 2010, the state had above average lightning but that it came with wetter systems. And in 2016, which represented a warmer scenario, there was a lower lightning strike count than normal.

Forecasts can always be wrong

In 2017, there were signs that it could be a quiet wildfire season. There had been an excellent snowpack, no drought, and it had generally been a wet year.

The Statesman Journal published a story quoting experts saying it could be a quieter wildfire season than normal.

That, of course, didn’t happen. Instead, it was one of Oregon’s worst wildfire seasons, with the Eagle Creek, Chetco Bar, Milli and Whitewater fires bringing some of the scariest wildfires in recent history.

“August and September always arrive, it’s almost always dry, and at that point it’s very difficult to predict what’s going to happen,” Neujahr said.

Higher than normal fire danger for southeast Oregon

The one place Oregon has above-normal fire danger is the southeast rangeland.

“We’ve seen two years of buildup of fuel from the rain, so we’re anticipating more fires than normal in the southeast,” Saltenberger said.

Those would largely be grass fires in areas that are not heavily populated.

Rangeland Fire Protection Associations, a nonprofit, is the lead group often fighting fires in that remote part of the state.

“They operate on a really tight budget but play a huge role,” Neujahr said.

Central Oregon also has some area of “abnormal dryness,” according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

“We’re keeping an eye on that area as well,” Neujahr said.

Urban wildfires on the rise in Oregon

One of the biggest trends from the 2023 wildfire season — and the last few years overall — has been the rise of urban wildfires. For the past three years, residents of south Salem have faced evacuations due to fast-growing wildfires. Multiple wildfires outside Eugene brought evacuations last summer.

Neujahr said hotter summers in metro areas have brought fire danger to places people aren’t used to it.

“We’re seeing more human-caused fires in areas where fuels are drying out in ways they didn’t in the past,” she said. “There seems to be a learning curve where people have trouble getting used to the fact that maybe they can’t pile burn as late in the summer as they could when they were growing up. There isn’t an awareness of what could ignite and spread a fire.”

A good example is the Liberty Fire in south Salem, which last summer led to the evacuation of 600 residents and cost more than $1 million to fight. A report on the fire’s cause and origin revealed the fire likely ignited when the hot exhaust of an ATV contacted dry vegetation. Two years earlier, the Vitae Springs Fire sparked when a car crashed into a telephone pole near tall grass and ignited a brush fire. Firefighters narrowly contained it to 15 acres.

“It’s just becoming easier for fires to get started and spread,” Neujahr said.

Firefighter staffing in Oregon

One issue that could plague the Northwest this summer is whether the state has enough wildland firefighters.

The U.S. Forest Service said it was at about 80% of firefighting capacity this season.

“We continue to struggle to staff at our full level,” said Ed Hiatt, assistant director for fire, fuels and aviation management for the Pacific Northwest Region of the Forest Service.

Neujahr said the Oregon Department of Forestry was staffing close to previous years with about 700 firefighters and wasn’t facing a major shortfall.

Hurricane season could limit emergency personnel numbers

Another possible drain on emergency personnel is the likelihood of a busy Atlantic hurricane season.

“The hurricanes obviously aren’t going to hit us, but what happens is that once they make landfall, there is a big demand on resources and emergency personnel,” Saltenberger said. “And their peak hurricane season — late August and September — comes at almost exactly the same time. It just creates a lot of competition for emergency relief.”

Mountaintop cameras, with some using AI, monitor wildfires

There has never been more eyes on Oregon’s forests, thanks to the proliferation of remote mountain cameras.

ODF’s system of mountaintop cameras numbers 77 statewide, and will grow to 95 in the next two years. The cameras are watched by remote fire-watching centers in multiple parts of the state.

In addition, the Oregon Hazards Lab at the University of Oregon — in partnership with ALERTWest — currently operates 45 remote cameras with plans to deploy 30 more. All firefighting agencies can tap into that system, which also uses artificial intelligence to monitor for smoke.

“When the algorithm detects smoke or heat, someone verifies it’s an actual incident, and then it goes out to dispatch,” Doug Toomey, UO professor of earth sciences and director of OHAZ, said in a news release. “This enables faster response times and helps fire managers better allocate resources when battling many blazes at once.”

Zach Urness has been an outdoors reporter in Oregon for 16 years and is host of the Explore Oregon Podcast. Urness is the author of “Best Hikes with Kids: Oregon” and “Hiking Southern Oregon.” He can be reached at zurness@StatesmanJournal.com or (503) 399-6801. Find him on X at @ZachsORoutdoors.

Source link

Click to comment

Oregon

Will Stein grew up ‘die-hard’ Kentucky fan. Now, Oregon OC will coach Wildcats, report

Published

5 hours ago

December 1, 2025

Press Room

Will Stein grew up ‘die-hard’ Kentucky fan. Now, Oregon OC will coach Wildcats, report

Fewer than 24 hours after firing 13-year head coach Mark Stoops, Kentucky reportedly named his replacement Dec. 1.

Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein, a Louisville alum, will be taking the reins in Lexington as a first-time head coach, per a report from ESPN. He will take over a 5-7 Wildcats team that just lost 41-0 to Stein’s alma mater, as he attempts to right the ship.

Stoops was the all-time winningest coach at Kentucky, racking up 82 wins. He barely finished his career there above .500, going 82-80 in that span. Kentucky missed bowl games in consecutive years for the first time in 10 seasons, exacerbating the urgency to show Stoops the door.

The timing of firing Stoops was puzzling, with Jon Sumrall accepting the Florida job earlier on Nov. 30. Sumrall, who played at Kentucky, was a popular name being tied to the job as an alum. But the subsequent timing of Stein’s hiring indicates he was a priority target for Kentucky athletic director Mitch Barnhart and the Kentucky brass.

Oregon is preparing to likely host a first round game at Autzen Stadium in the College Football Playoff. However, in another interesting wrinkle, Stein will get to do what Lane Kiffin could not for Mississippi: coach his 2025 team with a new destination in 2026 set, per Thamel.

The seeds for Stein to Kentucky have been cultivated for over a year.

“I grew up a die-hard Cats fan, actually. My dad played there, so I went to every game at Commonwealth Stadium. I grew up in really SEC football,” Stein said ahead of the 2024 season, per On3.

Now, Stein will have an opportunity to prove he can thrive in SEC football as well, as he looks to do what Clark Lea has done at Vanderbilt and help one of the more difficult jobs in the conference turn things around.

Source link

Oregon

14 takeaways from No. 6 Oregon’s win over Washington

Published

17 hours ago

December 1, 2025

Press Room

14 takeaways from No. 6 Oregon’s win over Washington

No. 6 Oregon beat Washington 26-14 on Saturday at Husky Stadium.

Here are 10 takeaways from the game as the Ducks (11-1, 8-1 Big Ten) prepare for the College Football Playoff.

1) Exorcising demons

Oregon was supposed to win. Washington was no match, didn’t have the talent to hang and didn’t coach aggressively enough to make up the difference.

However, the Ducks still faced the pressure of needing to win, on the road, or face the possibility of the next month being about the Holiday Bowl. As Dan Lanning said postgame, there’s the teams that get to keep playing in “the real one” and those that don’t.

Given Lanning’s first two years in this rivalry, another loss given the talent gap and what was on the line would have been devastating. This wasn’t a bad Washington team, but not a particularly good one either. Kalen DeBoer isn’t on that sideline. Nor are Rome Oduze or Michael Penix Jr.

But the Ducks have been and were again limited by injury, particularly on offense. Yet they scored more than any team against Washington this season, and could have had far more. Oregon was turnover free and made more big plays.

The criticism Lanning received in loss to UW in 2022 and 2023, particularly about his aggressiveness on fourth downs, was countered with effective fourth downs and taking points when necessary to secure one of the most meaningful wins of his tenure.

2) Malik Benson’s catch will live in lore

Benson has been on the receiving end of the biggest plays of Oregon’s season. The 64-yard touchdown to seal a playoff spot should stand the test of time.

Washington had all the momentum after cutting the deficit to 19-14. Third and nine from the UO 36 and Benson finds an opening in UW’s zone, then turns on the jets to blaze past defenders and break the game.

For a player who admittedly knew nothing about the rivalry when he got here, Benson had the kind of performance that can and should be remembered long into its future.

3) Moore settled in for a big performance

It was a slow start for both quarterbacks, but once Moore settled in he made some big throws and smart decisions when running. He just missed on an early throw to Jeremiah McClellan and completely didn’t see a corner blitz that was obvious. After that, Moore was nails, going 17 of his next 20, with two incompletions to Kenyon Sadiq that were off his hands and just out of bounds.

If Moore’s statline were had by Fernando Mendoza, Julian Sayin or Ty Simpson in their respective rivalry games, it would be celebrated as Heisman worthy.

4) Will Stein’s creativity is masking deficiencies

Stein was again deep into his playbook. Oregon’s wide use of personnel packages is nothing new, but Stein used even more formations, played more receivers and tight ends in the backfield, covered receivers and did plenty of other things to make for a difficult game of chess.

Given how handcuffed Oregon’s offense is by injuries at receiver, then having two tight ends each briefly go out, the production it’s been getting is fairly remarkable. It won’t be remembered as the best offensive day because of four field goals, but there are lots of lesser play-callers who would not have gotten nearly as much out of what Stein has to work with right now.

5) Atticus Sappington is making people forget

Sappington had another big game on the road and deserves every bit of accolades that come his way.

He’s the first Oregon player with four made field goals in a game since Aidan Schneider on Oct. 29, 2016, vs. Arizona State, and first to go 4-for-4 in a game since Schneider on Sept. 19, 2015, vs. Georgia State. Add his career-long 51-yarder as context and Sappington is the first UO player to go 4-for-4 on field goals with a long of at least 50 yards since at least 1996.

Sappington’s misses earlier in the season are long forgotten about.

6) Dillon Thieneman delivered again

Teams didn’t test Thieneman early in the season. But again two of the top three opposing quarterbacks of the season he’s had two of his best games. Thieneman made plays all over the field and was once again one of Oregon’s best defenders. Given the caliber of matchups ahead in the playoffs this is the kind of play the Ducks need from their best safety.

7) Washington’s two best plays were touchdowns

The Huskies didn’t move the ball particularly well. But once inside the red zone, even they managed to find the end zone against the Ducks.

Demond Williams Jr. found Denzel Boston on both scores, the first on a pick play and the second on a long crossing route, each with Theran Johnson in coverage. It’s hard to fault Johnson in either instance, as even the crossing route had a pick of sorts.

Oregon later countered on UW’s late fourth and three by having Brendon Finney Jr. on Boston, who was stopped just shy of the first down.

8) Kenyon Sadiq had a better blocking day than receiving

By any measure, this was a tough game for Sadiq in terms of receiving. He had two balls go off his hands and a diving catch that was out of bounds. His offensive and receiving grades were brutal.

But the junior tight end did not allow that to impact his blocking, which was still effective and at times critical. He walled off the safety on Benson’s touchdown and created other lanes as well.

9) Devon Jackson’s role is declining

Jackson played his fewest snaps of the season and wasn’t on special teams. He’s in his second game back from injury, but hasn’t been the same player as a year ago.

Jerry Mixon Jr. is clearly LB2. Jackson’s spot as LB3 can’t be secure with what Dylan Williams and Brayden Platt have each shown.

10) Teitum Tuioti is quietly having a big year

Tuioti is on his way not only to a career season, but an all-Big Ten year. He’s up to 57 tackles, one shy of his career best, with 13.5 for loss including seven sacks. That’s tied for second in the Big Ten in TFLs and fifth in sacks.

It could be argued that Tuioti is having a better season than Matayo Uiagalelei did last year. Because there is no Jordan Burch on the other side to take attention away from Tuioti. Uiagalelei is being schemed out by some opponents and simply not generating havoc in other instances.

11) Jamari Johnson is showing extreme upside

Johnson’s November to remember continued. He had 14 catches for 187 yards over the last four games. He should pass Sadiq’s production from last season, which is good for this season and potentially enormous for the future.

12) The run game has to adjust to loaded boxes

It came as no surprise that Washington loaded the box. Ryan Walters was utilizing five-man lines a lot this season with good results. Still, Oregon didn’t have great answers for it and will need to as better teams will look to capitalize on this.

Other times, UO’s gains were limited by good tackling in space that prevented longer runs.

13) Effort penalties

Oregon had two discipline-related penalties that are a matter of perspective. Lanning wasn’t thrilled with either postgame.

Daylen Austin was called for unsportsmanlike conduct for a late shove of a Washington gunner on a punt. However, the ball was bouncing and UO rightly tried to get the UW player to touch the ball. Washington’s player pushed Jadon Canady, understandably, and Austin pushed him back. In plenty of other rivalry games this would go uncalled and chalked up to the intensity of the moment.

Alex Harkey’s personal foul for blocking a player well out of bounds was obvious as far as calls go. But even Gary Danielson said he wouldn’t fault an offensive lineman who found a second defender to block on a play for taking that defender for a ride. It’s also completely on brand for Harkey, who has shown all season that he’s a nasty run blocker.

14) The future of the rivalry appears bright

With most of the top jobs filled and Jedd Fisch still in Seattle it appears Washington has stability. If he can retain Williams and the freshmen who made several huge plays, particularly on defense, the Huskies are trending towards being more competitive.

Source link

Oregon

GALLERY: Washington falls to Oregon 26-14 on senior day

Published

1 day ago

November 30, 2025

Press Room

GALLERY: Washington falls to Oregon 26-14 on senior day

Jedd Fisch wasn’t able to send the Washington Huskies’ seniors off with a victory, as his team fell 26-14 to the No. 5 Oregon Ducks on Saturday afternoon.

As sophomore quarterback Demond Williams Jr. struggled, completing just 50 percent of his passes for 129 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, the Huskies dropped to 8-4 on the season and 1-3 against ranked opponents.

Among the 23 players who walked on senior day that were hoping to go out with a victory were running back Jonah Coleman, wide receiver Denzel Boston, offensive linemen Carver Willis and Geirean Hatchett, defensive linemen Ta’ita’i Uiagalelei and Anterio Thompson, and cornerbacks Tacario Davis and Ephesians Prysock. After the game, Fisch took some time to acknowledge what all the seniors have meant to his program.

“Couldn’t be prouder of them, the way they’ve handled themselves,” Fisch said. “A lot of them have been with me and our staff for four years, from the time we recruited in high school at a different school. 2022, were a part of changing an entire culture, and really changed it twice.”

“I want to appreciate the guys that stayed here when we arrived and bought into what we were trying to get done, and have become team leaders and captains. I appreciate the guys that just transferred in this year and were a part of a good season, proud of those guys and appreciate those guys as well.”

Since his arrival, Fisch has done an impressive job upgrading the talent on Montlake after Kalen DeBoer’s departure for Alabama left the cupboards bare. While some of those promising building blocks were apparent in the loss, like running back Adam Mohammed, wide receiver Dezmen Roebuck, offensive lineman John Mills, linebacker Zaydrius Rainey-Sale, and cornerback Dylan Robinson, Saturday’s game also showed that the Huskies still have some maturing to do before they can compete with the top teams in the Big Ten.

“That’s kind of the way it works…you lose big, then you lose small, then you win small, then you win big,” Fisch said. “That’s kind of the progression of how these turnarounds occur, or how these builds occur. I think we had some interesting ‘win bigs’ throughout the year, but these types of games, against the top ten teams, they’re challenging, and they’re going to be like this.”

Source link