Oregon
What is the 2024 forecast for Oregon wildfires? Experts weigh in
By most metrics, Oregon is heading into wildfire season in better shape than recent years.
There’s no drought statewide in June for the first time since 2017, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
It’s been a relatively cool late spring and early summer. And forecasters say the transition from El Niño to La Niña weather patterns could mean a wetter than normal summer.
“We’re in a pretty good spot,” said Jessica Neujahr, wildfire spokeswoman for the Oregon Department of Forestry. “It’s actually a little bit similar to what we used to see heading into fire seasons in the 1990s and 2000s.”
With the exception of southeast Oregon’s rangeland, most of the state is forecast to see normal, or maybe even below normal, fire activity.
“I think the region as a whole will end up with below normal fire activity,” Jon Bonk, fire weather meteorologist for the Northwest Coordination Center, said at a meeting where he briefed Oregon’s congressional delegation on the upcoming fire season.
But Bonk, and every other forecaster, also was quick to highlight how difficult wildfires are to predict. Just one east winds storm, lightning burst or human-caused fire can change the shape of an entire season.
The 2020 wildfire season — the worst in Oregon’s history — had very little fire activity until a historic east windstorm hit in early September. Hotter summers and more people in the forest also make forecasting wildfires more difficult than ever.
With wildfire, you just never know until it happens.
“It’s all about confidence, and I wouldn’t say we have the confidence to say it’s going to be a below normal fire season,” Bonk said.
Active wildfires already rolling in central and southwest Oregon
Oregon already has seen some impactful wildfires this season.
The Upper Applegate Fire took flight in southwest Oregon last week, burning 830 acres and bringing evacuation warnings south of Medford, before a crew of more than 400 firefighters and numerous aircraft got it under control.
The Long Bend Fire near Maupin burned more than 1,000 acres, brought evacuation warnings and closed two popular campgrounds. On the Deschutes River — normally packed with rafts — helicopters could be seen dipping water to fight the blaze.
“Even in this type of year, we’re still going to see some large wildfires,” said John Saltenberger, fire weather program manager for NWCC.
Neujahr said the number of fires so far this year was about normal.
Fire season normally begins in northwest Oregon in July
Northwest Oregon typically enters fire season around early July. The rest of the state enters fire season earlier and is in fire season currently.
That doesn’t mean campfire prohibitions — that wouldn’t come until later. But it usually does mean that debris burning is no longer allowed without a permit and there are other limits on open flames.
Why might this be a quieter wildfire season in Oregon?
In projecting a quieter wildfire season, Bonk looked at drought, fuel moisture, long-term weather projections and other factors. But one place he zeroed in on was the transition from an El Niño to La Niña weather pattern.
He looked at past years with similar conditions and picked out 2010 and 2016 as “analog years” where weather patterns were similar to this year. Both of those turned out to be some of the state’s quietest wildfire seasons. In 2010, about 87,000 acres burned, and in 2016, 220,000 acres burned — both well below normal.
Over the past decade, Oregon has burned an average of over 600,000 acres per year.
“We’re expecting more onshore flow from the Pacific, which typically means higher precipitation amounts and more frequent weather systems,” he said. “The thunderstorms (instead of coming from inland) tend to come off the Pacific with more moisture.”
Bonk said that in 2010, the state had above average lightning but that it came with wetter systems. And in 2016, which represented a warmer scenario, there was a lower lightning strike count than normal.
Forecasts can always be wrong
In 2017, there were signs that it could be a quiet wildfire season. There had been an excellent snowpack, no drought, and it had generally been a wet year.
The Statesman Journal published a story quoting experts saying it could be a quieter wildfire season than normal.
That, of course, didn’t happen. Instead, it was one of Oregon’s worst wildfire seasons, with the Eagle Creek, Chetco Bar, Milli and Whitewater fires bringing some of the scariest wildfires in recent history.
“August and September always arrive, it’s almost always dry, and at that point it’s very difficult to predict what’s going to happen,” Neujahr said.
Higher than normal fire danger for southeast Oregon
The one place Oregon has above-normal fire danger is the southeast rangeland.
“We’ve seen two years of buildup of fuel from the rain, so we’re anticipating more fires than normal in the southeast,” Saltenberger said.
Those would largely be grass fires in areas that are not heavily populated.
Rangeland Fire Protection Associations, a nonprofit, is the lead group often fighting fires in that remote part of the state.
“They operate on a really tight budget but play a huge role,” Neujahr said.
Central Oregon also has some area of “abnormal dryness,” according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
“We’re keeping an eye on that area as well,” Neujahr said.
Urban wildfires on the rise in Oregon
One of the biggest trends from the 2023 wildfire season — and the last few years overall — has been the rise of urban wildfires. For the past three years, residents of south Salem have faced evacuations due to fast-growing wildfires. Multiple wildfires outside Eugene brought evacuations last summer.
Neujahr said hotter summers in metro areas have brought fire danger to places people aren’t used to it.
“We’re seeing more human-caused fires in areas where fuels are drying out in ways they didn’t in the past,” she said. “There seems to be a learning curve where people have trouble getting used to the fact that maybe they can’t pile burn as late in the summer as they could when they were growing up. There isn’t an awareness of what could ignite and spread a fire.”
A good example is the Liberty Fire in south Salem, which last summer led to the evacuation of 600 residents and cost more than $1 million to fight. A report on the fire’s cause and origin revealed the fire likely ignited when the hot exhaust of an ATV contacted dry vegetation. Two years earlier, the Vitae Springs Fire sparked when a car crashed into a telephone pole near tall grass and ignited a brush fire. Firefighters narrowly contained it to 15 acres.
“It’s just becoming easier for fires to get started and spread,” Neujahr said.
Firefighter staffing in Oregon
One issue that could plague the Northwest this summer is whether the state has enough wildland firefighters.
The U.S. Forest Service said it was at about 80% of firefighting capacity this season.
“We continue to struggle to staff at our full level,” said Ed Hiatt, assistant director for fire, fuels and aviation management for the Pacific Northwest Region of the Forest Service.
Neujahr said the Oregon Department of Forestry was staffing close to previous years with about 700 firefighters and wasn’t facing a major shortfall.
Hurricane season could limit emergency personnel numbers
Another possible drain on emergency personnel is the likelihood of a busy Atlantic hurricane season.
“The hurricanes obviously aren’t going to hit us, but what happens is that once they make landfall, there is a big demand on resources and emergency personnel,” Saltenberger said. “And their peak hurricane season — late August and September — comes at almost exactly the same time. It just creates a lot of competition for emergency relief.”
Mountaintop cameras, with some using AI, monitor wildfires
There has never been more eyes on Oregon’s forests, thanks to the proliferation of remote mountain cameras.
ODF’s system of mountaintop cameras numbers 77 statewide, and will grow to 95 in the next two years. The cameras are watched by remote fire-watching centers in multiple parts of the state.
In addition, the Oregon Hazards Lab at the University of Oregon — in partnership with ALERTWest — currently operates 45 remote cameras with plans to deploy 30 more. All firefighting agencies can tap into that system, which also uses artificial intelligence to monitor for smoke.
“When the algorithm detects smoke or heat, someone verifies it’s an actual incident, and then it goes out to dispatch,” Doug Toomey, UO professor of earth sciences and director of OHAZ, said in a news release. “This enables faster response times and helps fire managers better allocate resources when battling many blazes at once.”
Zach Urness has been an outdoors reporter in Oregon for 16 years and is host of the Explore Oregon Podcast. Urness is the author of “Best Hikes with Kids: Oregon” and “Hiking Southern Oregon.” He can be reached at zurness@StatesmanJournal.com or (503) 399-6801. Find him on X at @ZachsORoutdoors.
Oregon
Five Oregon and Washington women were killed allegedly by one man. Who were they?
PORTLAND, Ore. (KATU) — In May of 2023, the body of a woman who had been reported missing was found in a pond in Oregon’s Clackamas County.
The woman was later identified as 22-year-old Ashley Real, whose death was determined to be “suspicious in nature.”
She went missing on March 27 of that year, and her remains were found less than two months later near Eagle Creek.
Ashley’s father, Jose Real Jimenez, told The Oregonian in July of 2023 that she had reported being strangulated by Jesse Calhoun in November of 2022.
The outlet wrote that Portland Police took Ashley’s initial report but later referred the case to the sheriff’s office as it was out of their jurisdiction.
The case never moved forward.
On May 26, 2026, Multnomah County District Attorney Nathan Vasquez’s office held a press event. During the event, the DA announced pressing charges against Calhoun related to Ashley’s death.
Her mother, Maria Trinidad Jimenez, her father, Real Jimenez and sister, Masciell Real, were all present, flanked by the family members of four other women who have been killed.
Not enough evidence
By May 2023 and since February of that year, six women across various Oregon and Washington counties had gone missing and were subsequently found dead under suspicious circumstances.
Ashley Real, Bridget Leann (Ramsey) Webster, Charity Lynn Perry, Kristin Smith, Joanna Speaks, and an unidentified woman.
In February, 22-year-old Kristin Smith’s body was found in Multnomah County. The Gresham woman had been missing since November 2022. Detectives did not release much information surrounding Smith’s death.
Top Row: Ashley Real, Bridget Leann Ramsey, and Charity Lynn Perry. Bottom Row: Unidentified woman, Kristin Smith, and Joanna Speaks. (Photos via various law enforcement agencies)
The body of 32-year-old Joanna Speaks was found on April 8 in Ridgefield. Detectives with the Clark County Sheriff’s Office said at the time that the circumstances around her death were unusual.
Court documents state Speaks was killed 10 days after Charity Lynn Perry, on March 18.
Speaks was killed by blunt force trauma to the head; her death was the only one of the six in which the manner of death was revealed.
Speaks’ mother, CoLene Vargas, told KATU “Those details go through my mind every day” in 2024.
“We just don’t see a lot of homicides in this county, especially the kind like this, where it’s suspicious circumstances called in from an abandoned property,” Sgt. Chris Skidmore said at the time.
Later that month on April 24, the bodies of two women were found; 24-year-old Charity Lynn Perry and an unidentified woman.
The unidentified woman’s body was found at Interstate 205 and Southeast Flavel.
Perry was from Longview, Wash., and her body was found near Ainsworth State Park in a culvert East Historic Columbia River Highway and Northeast Tumalt Road. Court documents released later stated that she was killed on March 8.
Less than a week later, the body of Bridget Leann Ramsey Webster was found on Harmony Road near Mill Creek, on April 30. Indictment documents state she was killed on April 26.
On May 7, Ashley Real’s body was found on Southeast Judd Road.
Many of the women’s bodies were found in rural or wooded areas. The responding law enforcement agencies from different counties said at the time that they did not have enough evidence to link them.
Perry, Webster and Real were known to frequent the Portland metropolitan area.
“You look at, were these people similar, all females of certain ages, did they have similar contacts or locations or areas that they frequented?” said Skidmore.
The sgt. said at the time, “They can look at a bunch of factors and kind of try to start making some initial conclusions. I know they’ve been communicating, but I don’t think any of the teams are ready to say that ‘yes, we believe that these are linked’ yet.”
‘Person of interest’
On July 17, the Multnomah County District Attorney’s Office said they had a “person of interest” in four of those women’s deaths; Kristin Smith, Charity Perry, Bridget Webster, and Ashley Real.
Although at that point, no one had been formally charged with the deaths of the women.
Investigators interviewed several people in connection with the women’s cases, and they “have identified at least one person of interest that is linked to all four of the decedents.”
At the time, the DA’s office did not believe there was danger to the community.
The person of interest, now 41-year-old Jesse Lee Calhoun, was booked in the Snake River Correctional Institution.
Described by the Multnomah County Sheriff’s Office as a “prolific thief and career criminal” in 2019, Calhoun has a criminal history that dates back to when he was 18 years old.
He was serving a burglary sentence when he joined the inmates granted clemency by former Oregon Governor Kate Brown in 2021–roughly a year shy of his release date–for fighting wildfires.
Records indicate that Calhoun met the state corrections and Department of Forestry criteria for joining a fire crew and had a record of good conduct while incarcerated. Under his initial sentence, he would have been released in July 2022.
He was arrested in Clackamas County in June of 2023 on outstanding parole warrants.
While in jail, Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek officially revoked his early-release clemency on July 3 at the request of the Multnomah County DA’s Office, and he was readmitted to corrections custody July 6.
When asked for comment by KATU at the time, former Governor Brown said she was “absolutely horrified for the victims, their families, and all those who have experienced these losses.”
Initial indictment
On May 17 of 2024, a grand jury indicted Calhoun for murders of three of the six missing women’s deaths.
Joanna Speaks. (Photo via the Clark County Sheriff’s Office)
He faced charges related to the deaths of Perry, 24, Webster, 31, and Speaks, 32.
Photo of Bridget Leann (Ramsey) Webster from the Polk County Sheriff’s Office.
At that point, he was charged with three counts of murder in the second degree and three counts of abuse of a corpse in the second degree.
Charity Lynn Perry. (Photo via Multnomah County Sheriff’s Office)
In a two-page indictment, prosecutors relied on the testimonies of 16 witnesses presented to a grand jury. The expert witnesses included detectives, medical examiners, and forensic scientists.
In June of 2024, Calhoun pleaded not guilty to the three murders.
‘She loved her three children with all of her being’
The day of the initial indictment, the loved ones of the three women held a barbecue fundraiser to memorialize them.
Perry’s mother, Diana Allen, said her daughter “had a smile that would light up the world.”
Smith’s mother, Melissa Smith, described her daughter as “the biggest animal lover ever,” and said she used to work at an animal hospital.
Speak’s sister, Ariel Hamb, remembered her as an amazing mother.
“She loved her three children with all of her being.”
“Losing them has been so insanely difficult, and has affected our life in every single way that you can imagine. From the time you wake up from the time you go to sleep,” said Hamby.
Hamby continued, “This can’t be for nothing. They couldn’t have died for nothing.”
Kristin Smith indictment
In August of 2025, a Multnomah County grand jury indicted Calhoun for the killing of a fourth woman, Kristin Smith.
Smith is believed to have been killed in November 2022 and was reported missing a month later. Her body was found in February of 2023.
Kristin Smith. (Photos via Gresham Police Department)
New charges included second-degree murder and second-degree abuse of a corpse.
At the time, Melissa Smith, Kristin’s mother, said she was “overwhelmed with emotion.”
“I’ve always stayed hopeful that I would get justice for Kristin,” she said at a news conference in 2025. “I thank every single person who didn’t give up on this case.”
He later pleaded not guilty to the murder of Smith.
Ashley Real indictment
On May 26 of 2026, the family of 22-year-old Ashley received the news they had been waiting for since her body was found in 2023.
A tearful Real family spoke about how difficult the past three years have been for them, but said they never lost hope that this day would come.
“They always told me it was going to be a hard case. I am a faithful believer in God, and I have asked him that I wanted this day to come, and I knew that it would come,” Maria said, speaking in Spanish through an interpreter.
SEE ALSO | Father mourns loss of daughter as person of interest named in four Oregon deaths
Ashley’s father said he has felt guilty for not being able to protect her from Calhoun.
“Ashley was the best person in the world, not because I am her father, but if you would have known her, you would have thought the same. I know she is watching me, even though sometimes I blame myself that I couldn’t protect her from what happened to her. But I am here for her, and I will be here for her as long as God allows me to,” he said in Spanish through an interpreter.
Top row, L to R: Ashley Real, Bridget Leann Ramsey and Kristin Smith. Bottom Row L to R: Joanna Sparks and Charity Lynn Perry. As of May 2026, Jesse Calhoun was charged with murdering all five women. (Photos via various law enforcement agencies)
For Ashley’s younger sister, Masciell, the news came one day before her 17th birthday. She said her sister was her best friend and took care of her.
“She would always make sure that I was fed. The last message that I have from her is, ‘Hey, there’s donuts on the table,’” she said.
Masciell said she and Ashley were fans of True Crime Series and said they would pray for the victims to get justice. She never thought Ashley would be one of them.
“Ever since watching True Crime with her, I’ve always wanted to be a detective. So listening to all the detectives work on her case, it really opens my eyes and inspires me more,” Masciell said.
The Real family thanked the family members of the other four victims for reaching out and providing support over the years. Jose pointed out that only they would truly understand how it felt to wait for justice.
“I’m just very grateful that you get your day today, and one day we will go to trial and we will get our justice,” said Michelle Smith, Kristin Smith’s mother, who had to wait two years for the indictment to come in her daughter’s case.
Calhoun’s trial was expected to take place in 2027. Vasquez said he hopes that will still be the case and that trial can take place without delays. Prosecutors did not rule out other potential cases and said they are “leaving no stone unturned.”
Oregon
Oregonians to see rare ‘blue moon’ and ‘micromoon’ early next week
Top astronomy stories of 2026
Astronomy stories of 2026 include the return of a total solar eclipse to the Artemis II mission that aims for humans returning to the moon in the future.
Oregonians who may have missed this month’s full moon have a second chance as a rare “once‑in‑a‑blue‑moon” micromoon will rise on May 31.
The moon cycles through eight phases over roughly 29.5 days. While its brightness can be striking, each full moon also carries its own cultural and symbolic meaning, often linked to the time of year.
The second full moon will arrive on May 31, making it a blue moon, as it is the second full moon in the same calendar month. Such an event only occurs every couple of years.
It will also be a micromoon, which occurs when the full moon appears smaller and dimmer than usual because it is at the farthest point in its orbit from Earth, known as its apogee. Micromoons typically happen two to four times annually.
Here’s what to know about the May 2026 blue moon.
When are the second May 2026 full moon?
The blue moon will appear at the end of the month on May 31. It will reach peak illumination at 1:45 a.m. PDT, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac.
Where does the blue moon get its nickname?
Full moon names have long been used to track the seasons, with many originating from Native American and early colonial traditions.
The term blue moon, despite its name, has nothing to do with the moon’s color. Its modern meaning became widely used after a 1946 article in Sky & Telescope magazine mistakenly defined it, a definition that later stuck, according to Old Farmer’s Almanac.
What are the two types of blue moon?
There are two ways a blue moon can occur.
One is when two full moons fall within a single calendar month, like they will this May. This is called a calendrical blue moon, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac.
The other happens when there are four full moons in a single astronomical season instead of the usual three. In that case, the third full moon is considered a seasonal blue moon.
The May 2026 blue moon will also be a micromoon
The blue moon at the end of May will also be a micromoon.
A micromoon occurs when the full moon happens near apogee, the point where the moon is farthest from Earth. Because of that distance, the moon can appear slightly smaller and dimmer than usual, the opposite of a supermoon.
How often can Oregonians see a blue moon?
Blue moons typically occur every two to three years. The next calendrical blue moons are expected in December 2028 and September 2031.
The next seasonal blue moon will be May 2027.
Where are the best places to see the blue moon?
Oregon is home to seven dark sky places including:
Ginnie Sandoval is the Oregon Connect reporter for the Statesman Journal. Sandoval is a lifelong Oregonian who covers trending news, entertainment, food and outdoors. She can be reached at GSandoval@statesmanjournal.com or on X at@GinnieSandoval.
Oregon
Salem works to preserve memory of centuries-old Oregon white oak
Learn about Cherry Blossom Day at the Oregon State Capitol
Cherry Blossom Day takes place the third Saturday in March as the Akebono trees bloom and features performances and cultural demonstrations in Salem.
Work to remove Salem’s oldest street tree is scheduled to begin in late June or early July.
But before the tree is fully cut down, officials will consider ways to study and preserve its memory, said Milan Davis, the city’s urban forester.
In March, the city decided to do further testing on two historic Oregon white oaks that had been slated for removal in a Northeast Salem neighborhood.
City staff, as well as many in the neighborhood, said they were heartbroken by the decision to remove the trees and hoped to find a way to save them.
The city used sonic tomography, a non-invasive tool that uses sound waves to measure wood density, to evaluate wood strength in the lower stem of the oldest tree, which has been infected with the Ganoderma applanatum fungus for several years.
It found a significant amount of compromised wood in the tree’s lower stem. The tree also was evaluated by an arborist and was deemed high-risk.
Testing and analysis on the second tree is ongoing. It’s infected with a different species of root-rotting fungus, called Inonotus dryadeus.
Removal of the first tree will happen over several months, Davis said.
Initial plans are to prune back a lot of big limbs to reduce weight and the risk of falling branches.
The hope is to keep the tree in place until this fall, allowing it to put out acorns that could be collected and planted, he said.
“Acorns from heritage oak trees are deeply steeped in ancient symbolism, representing not just physical potential but ancestral knowledge,” Davis said. “Because these mature trees have silently witnessed centuries of history, their seeds are seen as cosmic storehouses of patience, endurance and timeless wisdom.”
The city also will provide portions of the tree as it is being removed to various community groups.
Those could include Willamette University, for studies of cross-sections, and various artists with project proposals, including one creating a life-sized print of the tree’s rings.
Before work begins, the city will again post signs announcing plans for removal, Davis said. It also will reach out again to the Salem City Council and to the Northeast Neighbors neighborhood association.
Tracy Loew covers the environment at the Statesman Journal. Send comments, questions and tips: tloew@statesmanjournal.com or 503-399-6779. Follow her on Twitter at @Tracy_Loew
-
California3 minutes agoNewsom to impose 100% tax on California payees of Trump’s $1.8bn fund
-
Colorado9 minutes agoPopular Northern Colorado restaurant impacted by spike in tomato prices
-
Connecticut15 minutes agoRat snake, grey treefrogs spotted in Connecticut
-
Delaware21 minutes agoHow a Delaware County shooting helped police solve a 2018 Cheltenham Township murder
-
Florida27 minutes agoFlorida Highway Patrol responds to major Turnpike crash near Exit 133 in Stuart
-
Georgia33 minutes agoJosh Brooks defends Georgia football’s ‘sweet spot’ scheduling model
-
Hawaii39 minutes agoHonolulu Fire Department to open firefighter recruit applications
-
Idaho45 minutes agoIdaho AAA, ITD urge drivers to watch for motorcycles as summer travel ramps up