Montana
Senate sweepstakes take a turn as Democrats dealt gift with Montana but suffer blow with Maryland
It was a consequential week for the 2024 race for control of the Senate, where Democrats were dealt both a political gift and a new challenge in races in Montana and Maryland as they attempt to hold on to their slim Senate majority.
Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) announced Friday that he will run for Senate in Montana, defying the wishes of national Republicans and setting up a contentious primary to take on vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). Meanwhile, in Maryland, Republican Larry Hogan, the popular former governor, said he plans to run for the state’s open Senate seat, potentially making the race to replace Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) more competitive than previously thought.
In Montana, Republicans had hoped to avoid a bitter primary in what they see as a must-win state. Tim Sheehy already has the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and also received a key endorsement from former President Donald Trump hours after Rosendale announced his decision to jump into the race.
While Trump stopped short of going after Rosendale, Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), the chairman of the NRSC, had harsher criticism for the Montana congressman who failed to unseat Tester once before in 2018.
“It’s unfortunate that rather than building seniority for our great state in the House, Matt is choosing to abandon his seat and create a divisive primary,” he said in a statement. “Whichever party wins the Montana Senate seat will control the United States Senate in 2024, and Republicans cannot risk nominating a candidate who gave Jon Tester the biggest victory of his career.”
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Democrats celebrated Rosendale’s entrance into the race, calling it a “nightmare” scenario for Republicans.
“The NRSC’s Montana nightmare just came true as their plans to avoid a nasty, expensive primary came crashing down around them,” said Tommy Garcia, a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman. “Whichever candidate emerges from their bruising intraparty fight will be deeply damaged and abhorrent to the voters that decide the general election.”
Tester is one of the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection in 2024, in a state Trump easily won twice. Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist, said he believes the race will be a competitive one but that this primary improves Tester’s chances of getting reelected.
“There is now going to be an expensive, hard-fought, and nasty primary on the Right. Sheehy will now have to concentrate on defeating Rosendale,” Reinish said. “Jon Tester is never breathing easy, but he’s walking a little lighter today.”
There are 34 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2024 election cycle. Of these, Democrats must defend 23, compared to just 11 for Republicans, and nearly all competitive seats are currently held by Democrats, putting them on the defensive as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) tries to maintain his slim majority. A state almost no one thought would be competitive is Maryland.
Hogan is expected to easily win the Republican nomination for the seat that’s open after Cardin announced his retirement. On the Democratic side, Rep. David Trone (D-MD) is facing off against Angela Alsobrooks, the executive of Prince George’s County.
While Reinish said Hogan’s entrance into the race is a major boost for Republicans, the state will still be difficult for the GOP to flip.
“Hogan was a popular governor. However, while Maryland, like Massachusetts, like Vermont, all really blue states, will sometimes, not infrequently, break that partisan rank at the home, statewide level and elect a moderate Republican attorney general or governor, Maryland has not sent a Republican to the Senate in decades,” he said.
“You consider it the best recruitment Republicans have had in Maryland in decades, but it will be incredibly uphill for him,” Reinish added. “But, Democrats will now have to pay attention to Maryland, which they did not think they would have to do.”
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David Bergstein, a spokesman for the DSCC, said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that Hogan would face a challenge: “Democrats have won every statewide federal election in Maryland for 44 years and 2024 will be no different,” he wrote.
Democrats and the independents who caucus with them hold 51 seats in the chamber. Of the Senate Democrats up for reelection, seven are in states that went for Trump in 2016, 2020, or both. There are no Republican seats up in states won by either Hillary Clinton in 2016 or President Joe Biden in 2020.
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A band of moderate snow has formed from the Cut Bank area, extending southeast across Chouteau, Fergus, and Judith Basin Counties. Be alert for low visibility and slick road conditions. Icy conditions continue in Lewis & Clark and Broadwater counties, where snow fell on top of ice after some freezing rain overnight. Up to a 1/4″ of ice has been reported on cars and sidewalks. Freezing rain may mix in again this morning as milder air begins to move back in.
Today’s Forecast:
Frigid Friday, several inches of snowfall in parts of the area-Friday, December 12
It will be a frigid today, with high temperatures in the 0s and lower 10s across central and eastern Montana, and mid to upper 30s in Helena.
The snow band will continue throughout the day, bringing several inches of snow to areas east of I-15. The band of snow will gradually push east tonight, impacting Blaine, Phillips, and Valley counties overnight. Snow showers taper off by Saturday morning.
MTN News
MTN News
Expect difficult driving conditions through Saturday morning, especially east of I-15 and into the mountains.
Arctic air slowly retreats north on Saturday. Temperatures start off in the -10s to near 0 on the Hi-Line and in the 0s for central Montana, then climb to the 0s and 10s for the Hi-Line and 10s to 20s in central Montana by Saturday evening.
Meanwhile, it will be a pleasant weekend in Helena with temperatures in the low 40s. A gusty breeze develops on Sunday, as temperatures warm nicely into the low to mid 40s in central Montana and into the 30s in northeast Montana.
Looking ahead to next week, mild and windy conditions kick off the workweek, followed by active weather returning midweek.
MTN News MTN News
MTN News
Warm temperatures and an “atmospheric river” of precipitation that flowed into northwestern Montana this week have generated a state of emergency in Montana’s northwesternmost county, Lincoln, as local waterways run unseasonably high.
Around 12 p.m. Wednesday, the National Weather Service started issuing flooding watches as area snowpack sites reported 24-hour precipitation totals that were approaching record levels. NWS meteorologist Dan Borsum told Montana Free Press Thursday that the “rain-on-snow” nature of the recent precipitation has led to widespread flooding.
Borsum called the weather pattern “unusual” for mid-December, instead likening it to a warm April.
Zach Sherbo, the public health manager for the Lincoln County Health Department, said in a Thursday afternoon phone call that additional precipitation is expected through Thursday evening, so rivers could continue rising into Friday.
The Lincoln County communities of Libby and Troy have been hit the hardest by the deluge, which prompted emergency services personnel to issue a state of emergency Thursday afternoon. Residents are cautioned against unnecessary travel and those served by the Libby city water supply are under a boil-water order as a precaution in the event of water supply contamination. School has also been canceled for students in Libby and Troy, Sherbo said.
The Lincoln County Sheriff’s Department has identified a handful of bridges that have been compromised or are washed out as a result of flooding. It suggests residents looking for information on road closures and bridge conditions review an interactive map that is available online and linked in a press release posted to the Lincoln County Health Department’s Facebook page.
“It’s going to take a long time to recoup from this, just structurally, just with the bridges we’ve lost already and the condition that they’re in and going toward,” Sherbo said. “It’s a pretty big combined local effort right now.”
Justun Juelfs, the Kalispell-area maintenance chief with the Montana Department of Transportation said three stretches of state-managed roadways were closed or under monitoring status as of 4 p.m. Thursday.
An approximately 80-foot section of the Farm to Market Road south of Libby has washed out as Libby Creek carved a new channel. MDT is also monitoring erosion that is occurring along a U.S. Highway 2 bridge southeast of Libby and along a section of Highway 56 near Bull Lake. Juelfs encouraged motorists to review MDT’s road conditions report for up-to-date information on impacts to state highways.
The Army Corps of Engineers is assisting with sandbag-filling and distributing efforts and the Red Cross has set up a shelter for those in need at the Assembly of God Church in Libby, according to Sherbo.
The Montana Disaster and Emergency Services agency is also lending a hand with the flood response. In an email to MTFP, Anette Ordahl with DES wrote that a district field officer and a recovery coordinator are on the ground in Libby to offer assistance.
In a Thursday afternoon press release, Gov. Greg Gianforte noted that Sanders and Flathead counties have also recognized the flooding by issuing emergency or disaster declarations. Up to four inches of additional rainfall are expected across western and south-central Montana, according to a disaster declaration Gianforte’s office included in a 3 p.m. press release.
The National Weather Service reported Thursday morning that the Bear Mountain snowpack monitoring site, located just across the border in Idaho, received 6.5 inches of precipitation as of this morning, making it the third-wettest 24-hour period for the site in its 44-year monitoring history. The six-day precipitation total for Dec. 6-11 is 13 inches.
Borsum, with the National Weather Service, said the recent, unseasonable warm spell in western Montana combined with the “super strong” atmospheric river to melt early season snowpack and drive flooding. A similar rain-on-snow event in early June of 2022 led to widespread flooding in parts of south-central Montana that required extensive repairs to roadways and bridges.
Thursday, the Yaak River near Troy surpassed its official flood stage, running at more than 7,500 cubic feet per second. Its usual volume for this time of the year is about 200 cfs.
The Fisher River near Libby was also nearing flood stage. As of Thursday afternoon, it was running at nearly 4,000 cfs, more than 20 times its usual volume for mid-December.
Zeke Lloyd and Jacob Olness contributed to this reporting.
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