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In California, It’s 72 With a Chance of “Weather Whiplash” | Connecting California

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In California, It’s 72 With a Chance of “Weather Whiplash” | Connecting California


Why is it so hard to make seasonal weather predictions in California—and what’s the path to more accurate forecasts? Columnist Joe Mathews asks in the latest Connecting California. Satellite image courtesy of NOAA Photo Library/Flickr (CC BY 2.0 DEED).

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California weather is harder to predict than it looks. Even Harris K. Telemacher came to learn that.

Telemacher was a Los Angeles TV weathercaster with an ocean of knowledge—he had a PhD in arts and humanities and quoted Shakespeare—but no real meteorological training. So, he assumed that California weather was predictable and decided to tape his televised forecasts weeks in advance, always promising sunny and warm days. This worked until an unexpected Pacific storm deluged the Southland during one of his pre-recorded forecasts.

Telemacher was a fictional character invented and inhabited by Steve Martin in the classic satire L.A. Story. But he embodied a real-life cliché that needs retiring.

California weather has never been as predictable as a Steve Martin gag—especially when it comes to the rain and snow of Golden State winters like this one.

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In fact, no state in the lower 48 sees as much variability in its year-to-year precipitation as California. Such variability makes our weather at least as unpredictable as anything else in this volatile state. Last year, California was in the midst of the driest three-year run in recorded history when NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, published a seasonal forecast for a drier-than-average winter. Instead, we experienced one of our wettest winters ever.

Now, another winter of weather surprises has arrived, demonstrating that California desperately needs better seasonal forecasts so we can plan and protect ourselves in this era of climate change.

Seasonal forecasts are not the predictions of tomorrow’s weather that you see delivered on your TV by Telemacher and his present-day imitators. Seasonal forecasts provide a range of possible weather and climate changes for the next season on the calendar, usually about a month or so in advance. (Federal agency forecasts for winter are usually out by Halloween.) Meteorologists will tell you that while it’s impossible to tell you the weather on a particular day months in advance, they should be able to predict, broadly, how wet or dry the next season should be.

But that’s always been hard to do in California. Lately, it’s become even harder because of the state’s “weather whiplash”—the term that the Public Policy Institute of California has used in recent years to describe the seesawing we’ve seen between flood and drought.

Our current inability to predict seasonal wet conditions makes it harder to manage water supplies (we need to store more in wet winters to prepare for drier years), prepare for disasters (including unpredictable floods, like the one that recently inundated San Diego), and do long-term economic planning for agriculture, which supplies food to the entire nation.

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Another winter of weather surprises has arrived, demonstrating that California desperately needs better seasonal forecasts so we can plan and protect ourselves in this era of climate change.

It’s not just winter weather that’s hard to foresee. Predicting scorching heat, as the state’s daily average maximum temperature rises by more than 4 degrees, is difficult. Impactful heat waves, called Heat Health Events, are expected to increase in frequency and duration, especially in the Central Valley and Sierra. Calling those ahead of time could be a matter of life and death.

But improving seasonal forecasts is easier said than done. Even the most advanced meteorologists have struggled with making seasonal forecasts. Indeed, recent studies, now getting attention in California policy circles, suggest that our state and its meteorologists need a better understanding of the peculiarities of the Pacific Ocean to improve their forecasts.

Making expectations about how much rain or snow is likely to fall in California depends on predicting atmospheric patterns over the northern Pacific Ocean. To do so, meteorologists have tended to look at sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific and the phenomena known as El Niño and La Ninã. Warm temperatures, or “El Niño” conditions, were believed to herald rain. Cool “La Niña” conditions were thought to signal a dry winter.

But a recent paper highlighted by PPIC, with authors from UCLA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, found that El Niño conditions don’t explain most of the variability of our weather. To cite one example, tropical sea surface temperatures and conditions were very similar in 2021–22 and 2022–23, but the first winter was dry and the second was one of the wettest in history.

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“It remains elusive how predictable the year-to-year variability of CA winter precipitation is and why it is challenging to achieve skillful seasonal prediction of CA precipitation,” the paper said.

According to its authors, to arrive at more accurate seasonal forecasts, scientists need a better understanding of the ocean’s “circulation anomalies,” which are deviations in averages and expected conditions independent of El Niño. Current climate models, the paper argued, “show nearly no skill in predicting these,” which means that they have “limited predictive skill for California winter precipitation.”

The paper also argued that current climate models can’t predict patterns that stem from tropical convection (i.e. tropical clouds and thunderstorms) or the stratospheric polar vortex. This means that for better seasonal forecasts, meteorologists need a better understanding of conditions and patterns not only in the relatively nearby western Pacific but also in waters as far away as the Indian and Arctic oceans.

How do we achieve this?

One answer is to devote more time and resources to observing oceans, sea ice, and clouds—and their impacts on precipitation. Another answer is to employ better computer capacity and artificial intelligence to build better climate models. This is a planetary problem—if you want better predictions of California precipitation, you need to improve modeling and data for the climate of the whole earth.

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But such improvements won’t happen fast. So, for at least a few more winters, we’re stuck with unreliable seasonal forecasts and unpredictable weather.



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A fast-growing wildfire in windy Southern California triggers evacuations

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A fast-growing wildfire in windy Southern California triggers evacuations


RIVERSIDE, Calif. — A smoky and fast-growing wildfire Friday in windy Southern California has prompted multiple evacuation orders and warnings.

The Springs Fire broke out at around 11 a.m. Friday and by the evening had grown to about 5.47 square miles (14.17 square kilometers), with fire crews starting to contain it. The cause of the fire east of Moreno Valley in Riverside County is under investigation. It was not immediately known how many households are under evacuation warnings or orders.

The fire was burning in a populated — but not densely so — unincorporated part of Riverside County, in a recreational area near the city of Moreno Valley, which has a population of roughly 200,000. The city is 10 miles (16 kilometers) southeast of Riverside and 64 miles (103 kilometers) east of Los Angeles.

Springs Fire In Moreno Valley Explodes To Burn Over 3,500 Acres
A firefighting aircraft sprays red flame retardant at the site of the Springs Fire, on Friday.Qian Weizhong / VCG via Getty Images

“It’s windy out there,” said Maggie Cline De La Rosa, a public information officer for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection in Riverside County.

Alex Izaguirre, a spokesperson for the Cal Fire Riverside County, said the wind is “spreading the smoke,” prompting concerned calls from residents in neighboring cities who can see and smell the smoke.

The National Weather Service issued a wind advisory for San Bernardino and Riverside County valleys through Saturday afternoon, with gusts of up to 50 mph (80 kph) expected.

“Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result,” the advisory read.

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Doctors, nurses arrested in Southern California health care fraud investigation

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Doctors, nurses arrested in Southern California health care fraud investigation


LOS ANGELES — The U.S. Department of Justice on Thursday announced what they called a major health care fraud takedown throughout Southern California, which included the arrest of doctors and nurses.

First Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli was joined during a press conference by several law enforcement agencies including the FBI, and Dr. Mehmet Oz, head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

They said they served a series of search and arrest warrants throughout the region, from Covina to Lakewood in Los Angeles County. Eight people were arrested and more than a dozen are being charged for suspected health fraud.

They also mentioned fraudulent hospice care.

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“These defendants recruited beneficiaries who were not terminally ill, and paid them to pose as patients receiving hospice care. Medicare then paid millions of dollars – hundreds of millions of dollars – on false and fraudulent claims submitted by fraudsters,” said Essayli.

Among those arrested were a Covina couple. Prosecutors said 66-year-old psychologist Gladwin Gill and his wife, Amelou Gill, a registered nurse, operated a fraudulent hospice business out of Glendale.

“This particular hospice submitted more than $5.2 million in fraudulent claims, and Medicare actually paid out more than $4 million,” Essayli said.

Gill’s attorney told our sister station, ABC7 Eyewitness News in Los Angeles, he denies the allegations and looks forward to his day in court.

Oz announced a broader review of hospice providers in the state.

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“We’re going to review every single hospice in California to make sure that they’re all appropriate, and we hope to do that expeditiously. We’ll do it this year,” Oz said.

During the news conference, federal authorities were questioned about a video California Gov. Gavin Newsom said in January his office was reviewing. In that video, Oz, who is Turkish American, was shown standing in front of an Armenian-owned bakery in Van Nuys while alleging widespread fraud in the area.

Essayli confirmed that none of the defendants named Thursday were connected to that video. Oz responded to outcry that his accusations, which the business owner denounced as false, were discriminatory.

“I was stating the facts as they’ve been explained to me, and we have a lot of evidence of where the fraud is, just looking at the numbers,” Oz said.

Oz did not provide any evidence against a specific business in connection to that video. He suggested that half of Los Angeles County hospice care facilities are fraudulent, pointing to survival percentages as evidence.

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“World experts at CMS say if you’ve got 100% or near survival, certainly if you’ve got a survival over 50% for population that’s supposed to have passed in six months, you’ve got a problem,” he said.

Newsom responded to accusations that California had not done enough to address hospice fraud, saying in part, “The Trump Administration – home to the biggest fraudsters on Earth – is trying to blame California for issues with THEIR federal programs.”

His press office said the state has taken action for years, including suspending more than 280 licenses and banning new ones.

Copyright © 2026 KABC Television, LLC. All rights reserved.



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California law allowing people to cook, sell food from homes getting statewide push

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California law allowing people to cook, sell food from homes getting statewide push


A home-based food movement has been heating up in California, with home cooks turning their beloved family recipes into small businesses. 

When most people get laid off, they update their résumés. James Houlahan preheated his oven.

“It’s pretty brutal, and since nobody’s hiring, I just figured I need to make a job for myself,” he said.

So the San Francisco Bay Area resident went back to a family recipe and decided to take a risk, with a whisk. He started making pavlovas, a light, meringue-based Australian dessert, crisp on the outside and soft in the middle.

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“It’s something my mom and I always joked about whenever we’d bring a pav to a party, this thing kills,” Houlahan said. “So we figured, someone’s gotta make a business out of this.”

So he did, out of his own kitchen in Alameda. 

And that’s not a loophole. A 2019 law called MEHKO, or Microenterprise Home Kitchen Operation, allows people to cook and sell food right out of their homes. Since then, more than 1,000 of these home kitchens have opened across California, operating under a growing but still patchwork system.

There are rules: food must be made from scratch and sold the same day. Not every county is on board, but there is now a push to expand it statewide.

Roya Bagheri, the executive director of The Cook Alliance, the nonprofit behind MEHKO, said the law is gaining momentum across the country as other states consider their own versions. 

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“The cost of getting something like a food truck or a brick and mortar restaurant is so high, this creates an access to enter the food industry,” she said.

A study by the group showed more than a third of home kitchen operators have used MEHKO as a stepping stone into something bigger.

But for some, the law is still a little undercooked. Jot Condie, president and CEO of the California Restaurant Association, warned that some counties may not have the resources to take it on.

“If they don’t have the budget, there may not be a rigorous inspection procedure, and that is a huge concern for us,” Condie said.

As for Houlahan, he’s betting on his own kitchen and his mother’s name: Marianne’s Pavlovas. And his customers, like Flora Tso, are already sold.

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“Nowadays it just gives us more choice,” she said.



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