California
Are cheaper mortgages bad news for California’s housing market?
Falling mortgage rates should come with a warning label stating: “Be careful what you wish for!”
This summer’s cheaper home loans ignited real estate buzz suggesting California’s two-year homebuying slump may be nearing its end.
The Federal Reserve’s lengthy battle against inflation – fueled by higher interest rates – helped make California homebuying nearly impossible for most house hunters. But mid-2024’s moderating cost of living, plus overall economic lethargy, has already trimmed mortgage rates off 20-year highs. Come September, the Fed is expected to begin cutting its benchmark rates.
Yes, lower rates mildly prune California’s huge affordability challenges. Some industry insiders even speculate these savings could create a rush to buy, forcing California prices even higher.
But the same cheaper mortgages that lead to a “buy now” narrative are often signals of economic trouble. Remember, interest rates typically fall when the business climate cools.
By the numbers
To contemplate the mix of rates and pricing, I filled my trusty spreadsheet with these stats dating to 1977: the average 30-year mortgage from Freddie Mac, California home price data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and what you may think is an odd number: the state’s unemployment rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Consider what we learn when slicing history into 12-month periods, simply based on whether mortgage rates got pricier or cheaper over the past 47 years.
When mortgage rates grew over a year’s time, California home prices averaged 10%-a-year gains.
Then look at what happens when mortgage rates fell. California prices gained only 4.4% on average. Yes, less than half.
Now, let’s not blindly cheer rising rates. Think about a theoretical buyer’s house payment using math that combines these pricing patterns and rate swings.
When rates rise over a year, estimated California house payments jumped 21% on average. Pricier homes plus pricier loans is a painful bite to the wallet. But buyers seem willing to pay up.
Conversely, payments in times of falling rates dropped by 2.6% a year on average. So it’s the cheaper money that creates whatever meager affordability exists in California.
Now, these results may seem illogical as pictured through a traditional real estate lens. But take a broader view of the economy and ponder the cyclical health of California’s job market.
When mortgage rates rose during the past half century, the statewide unemployment was falling by 0.7 percentage points per year on average. Basically, interest rates rise when times are good and bosses are hiring.
Unfortunately, when the economy gets too hot – such we saw in 2021 to 2023 – the bond market and/or the Fed may play Grinch, pushing up interest rates, and spoiling the economic party.
Contrast that pattern to how the economy performs when loan rates decline during the past half century: California joblessness was increasing by 0.3 percentage points. So fewer jobs, less demand for all sorts of goods and services – and a Fed more willing to help.
Bottom line
Don’t overthink housing’s sometimes myopic data. It’s really about real estate’s three pillars: “Jobs. Jobs. Jobs.”
In the past 47 years, when jobs are scarce and unemployment rises in a year, California home prices average 2% gains. When unemployment drops, prices rise 9%.
Please note that California joblessness has been above 5% for 10 months, after reaching an all-time low of 3.8% in August 2022.
You see, successful house hunting requires not only a paycheck – but confidence that you’ll remain employed. And cheaper mortgages frequently come with a weaker business climate and depressed consumer confidence.
That can make California house hunters think twice about paying top dollar for housing. It’s a key reason why you see weaker pricing when rates are down.
Of course, every cycle is different. Maybe the odd post-pandemic real estate market will act unlike the statistical norms shown by this math.
Ponder history’s extremes. Prices jumped 29% with lower rates in the year ended in September 2004. But cheaper mortgages did not prevent a 23% drop in the 12 months ended September 2008.
So summer 2024 might be a “buy now” moment with tumbling rates helping to push California home prices skyward. But the true catalyst would be an economy that nails an Olympic-quality soft landing with few job losses.
My spreadsheet also tells me that since 1977 when mortgages got cheaper in a year, California home prices rose 67% of the time. Not bad odds.
But when rates were rising, price gains came 85% of the time.
Postscript
The economic fallout of cheaper mortgages has modestly varied in the past half century, depending on the size of the rate drops. Ponder these California examples of one-year dips …
Rates down half-percentage-point or more: Home prices rose 3.6% in 12 months on average in these situations. Again, a weak economy, as California’s unemployment rate averaged a 0.9-point increase in a year.
Off three-quarters-point or more: Prices up 2.5%. Unemployment up 1.1 points.
Off 1 point or more: Prices rise 4.2%. Unemployment up 0.6 points.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
Originally Published:
California
Signs of spring blooming at Antelope Valley California Poppy Reserve after wet, warm winter
It’s beginning to look a lot like spring!
The warm and wet weather this winter has led to the start of a dazzling super bloom at the Antelope Valley California Poppy Reserve.
“We had an unseasonably warm winter as well, so there’s actually a lot of growth,” said Callista Turney with California State Parks. “We’re having early wildflowers that are already at the park. So if you look at the poppy live cam, it shows a lot of orange already.”
The rain has helped the early blooms, but it’s actually the heat that accelerated the growth of the flowers.
“It will actually speed up the growth of the plants, so some of them were already blooming and that’s going to cause those blossoms to accelerate faster towards seed production. And the blossoms that are in the process of being formed, those are going to open up soon as well.”
We also sometimes see great super blooms in Death Valley National Park, Anza-Borrego Desert State Park, Joshua Tree and the Mojave National Preserve.
“It’s definitely a rare occurrence because we don’t always have the right conditions. It’s gotta be the weather, the wind, the rain, all coming together,” said Katie Tilford, Director of Development and Communications with the Theodore Payne Foundation.
If it continues to stay unseasonably warm, we’ll see a shorter bloom. The key to a longer season is milder weather.
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California
Republican governor candidate Chad Bianco says he’s the ‘antithesis to California state government’
We are counting down to the California governor’s race. Chad Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County, is one of the two biggest names running on the Republican ticket.
In a one-on-one interview with Eyewitness News political reporter Josh Haskell, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco said, “I am the antithesis to California state government because I am going to take a nuclear bomb into that building and absolutely destroy everything that they do to us behind closed doors.”
Although he’s been elected by the voters twice, Bianco says he’s not a politician — which is why he believes his campaign for California governor is resonating, as reflected in the polls.
“President Trump, in one year, from 2025 when he took over, until now, did absolutely nothing to harm California. What’s harming California is 30 years of Democrat one-party rule that have created an environment here that no one can live in anymore. They’ve only been successful here in California because we vote D no matter what. You vote D or die. I mean, that’s it. Charles Manson would be elected in California if he was the only Democrat on the ballot,” Bianco said.
Bianco isn’t the only conservative Republican running for governor, and according to polling, he’s neck-and-neck with former Fox News host Steve Hilton.
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Leading in some polls in the wide-open California Governor’s race as the June primary creeps closer is Republican and former Fox News host Steve Hilton.
“Steve has no chance of winning in November. The Democrats know that I’m going to win in November, and so they have to do everything they can to keep me out of that,” Bianco said.
When asked about the affordability crisis in the state, Bianco said, “Almost the entire issue of affordability in California is because of regulation, excessive regulation imposed by government. Every single regulation can be signed away with the governor’s signature.”
“It is a drug and alcohol addiction problem that, and a mental health problem,” he said about the homelessness crisis. “Every single bit of money that is going to these nonprofits that say ‘homeless,’ zero money. You’re getting absolutely nothing. I can’t tell you that we would end what we see in the homeless situation within a year, but I guarantee you we would never see it again after two years.”
When challenged on that prediction, pointing to how the state doesn’t have the facilities to treat the number of people living on our streets, Bianco responded, “We have been conditioned to believe that buildings take five years to build. It takes 90 days or less to build a house, but in California, it takes three to five years because the government won’t allow it. The regulations that are destroying this state are going to be removed with me as the governor.”
Bianco also said California jails shouldn’t have to play the role of treatment facilities.
Although he says he supports the Trump administration and wants the president’s endorsement, Bianco has been traveling the state — meeting not just with Republicans, but Democrats and independents as well. He says all of our state government officials have failed.
The primary election is June 2.
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Copyright © 2026 KABC Television, LLC. All rights reserved.
California
PlayOn Sports fined $1.1 million by California watchdog over student data violations
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (FOX26) — California’s privacy watchdog has ordered PlayOn Sports to pay a $1.10 million fine and change how it handles consumer data after finding the company’s practices violated state law in ways that affected students and schools in the state.
The California Privacy Protection Agency Board issued the decision following a settlement reached by CalPrivacy’s Enforcement Division.
The decision is the first by the board to address privacy violations involving students and California schools.
Schools across the country use PlayOn Sports’ GoFan platform to sell digital tickets to high school sporting events, theater performances, and homecoming and prom dances, with attendees presenting tickets at the door on their mobile phones.
Schools also use PlayOn Sports’ platforms for other sports-related activities, including attending games, streaming them online, and looking up statistics about teams and players.
In California, about 1,400 schools contract with PlayOn Sports for these services.
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GoFan is also the official ticketing platform for the California Interscholastic Federation, the governing body for high school sports.
According to the board’s decision, PlayOn Sports used tracking technologies to collect personal information and deliver targeted advertisements to ticketholders and others using its services.
The company allegedly required Californians to click “agree” to tracking technologies before they could use their tickets or view PlayOn Sports websites, without providing a sufficient opt-out option.
“Students trying to go to prom or a high school football game shouldn’t have to leave their privacy rights at the door,” said Michael Macko, CalPrivacy’s head of enforcement. “You couldn’t attend these events without showing your ticket, and you couldn’t show your ticket without being tracked for advertising. California’s privacy law does not work that way. Businesses must ensure they offer lawful ways for Californians to opt-out, particularly with captive audiences.”
The decision also describes students as a uniquely vulnerable population and warns that targeted advertising systems can subject students to profiling that can follow them for years, expose them to manipulative or harmful content, and develop sensitive inferences about their lives.
Instead of providing its own opt-out method, PlayOn Sports directed students and other users to opt out through the Network Advertising Initiative and the Digital Advertising Alliance, which the decision said violated the company’s responsibility to provide its own way for consumers to opt out. The company also allegedly failed to recognize opt-out preference signals and did not provide Californians with sufficient notice of its privacy practices.
“We are committed to making it as easy as possible for all Californians — from high school students to older adults, and everyone in between — to make the choice of whether they want to be tracked or not,” said Tom Kemp, CalPrivacy’s executive director. “Californians can opt-out with covered businesses, and they can sign up for the newly launched DROP system to request that data brokers delete their personal information.”
Beyond the $1.10 million fine, the board’s order requires PlayOn Sports to conduct risk assessments, provide disclosures that are easy to read and understand, and implement proper opt-out methods.
The order also requires the company to comply with California’s privacy law prohibiting the selling or sharing of personal information of consumers between 13 and 16 without their affirmative opt-in consent.
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