California
Are cheaper mortgages bad news for California’s housing market?
Falling mortgage rates should come with a warning label stating: “Be careful what you wish for!”
This summer’s cheaper home loans ignited real estate buzz suggesting California’s two-year homebuying slump may be nearing its end.
The Federal Reserve’s lengthy battle against inflation – fueled by higher interest rates – helped make California homebuying nearly impossible for most house hunters. But mid-2024’s moderating cost of living, plus overall economic lethargy, has already trimmed mortgage rates off 20-year highs. Come September, the Fed is expected to begin cutting its benchmark rates.
Yes, lower rates mildly prune California’s huge affordability challenges. Some industry insiders even speculate these savings could create a rush to buy, forcing California prices even higher.
But the same cheaper mortgages that lead to a “buy now” narrative are often signals of economic trouble. Remember, interest rates typically fall when the business climate cools.
By the numbers
To contemplate the mix of rates and pricing, I filled my trusty spreadsheet with these stats dating to 1977: the average 30-year mortgage from Freddie Mac, California home price data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and what you may think is an odd number: the state’s unemployment rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Consider what we learn when slicing history into 12-month periods, simply based on whether mortgage rates got pricier or cheaper over the past 47 years.
When mortgage rates grew over a year’s time, California home prices averaged 10%-a-year gains.
Then look at what happens when mortgage rates fell. California prices gained only 4.4% on average. Yes, less than half.
Now, let’s not blindly cheer rising rates. Think about a theoretical buyer’s house payment using math that combines these pricing patterns and rate swings.
When rates rise over a year, estimated California house payments jumped 21% on average. Pricier homes plus pricier loans is a painful bite to the wallet. But buyers seem willing to pay up.
Conversely, payments in times of falling rates dropped by 2.6% a year on average. So it’s the cheaper money that creates whatever meager affordability exists in California.
Now, these results may seem illogical as pictured through a traditional real estate lens. But take a broader view of the economy and ponder the cyclical health of California’s job market.
When mortgage rates rose during the past half century, the statewide unemployment was falling by 0.7 percentage points per year on average. Basically, interest rates rise when times are good and bosses are hiring.
Unfortunately, when the economy gets too hot – such we saw in 2021 to 2023 – the bond market and/or the Fed may play Grinch, pushing up interest rates, and spoiling the economic party.
Contrast that pattern to how the economy performs when loan rates decline during the past half century: California joblessness was increasing by 0.3 percentage points. So fewer jobs, less demand for all sorts of goods and services – and a Fed more willing to help.
Bottom line
Don’t overthink housing’s sometimes myopic data. It’s really about real estate’s three pillars: “Jobs. Jobs. Jobs.”
In the past 47 years, when jobs are scarce and unemployment rises in a year, California home prices average 2% gains. When unemployment drops, prices rise 9%.
Please note that California joblessness has been above 5% for 10 months, after reaching an all-time low of 3.8% in August 2022.
You see, successful house hunting requires not only a paycheck – but confidence that you’ll remain employed. And cheaper mortgages frequently come with a weaker business climate and depressed consumer confidence.
That can make California house hunters think twice about paying top dollar for housing. It’s a key reason why you see weaker pricing when rates are down.
Of course, every cycle is different. Maybe the odd post-pandemic real estate market will act unlike the statistical norms shown by this math.
Ponder history’s extremes. Prices jumped 29% with lower rates in the year ended in September 2004. But cheaper mortgages did not prevent a 23% drop in the 12 months ended September 2008.
So summer 2024 might be a “buy now” moment with tumbling rates helping to push California home prices skyward. But the true catalyst would be an economy that nails an Olympic-quality soft landing with few job losses.
My spreadsheet also tells me that since 1977 when mortgages got cheaper in a year, California home prices rose 67% of the time. Not bad odds.
But when rates were rising, price gains came 85% of the time.
Postscript
The economic fallout of cheaper mortgages has modestly varied in the past half century, depending on the size of the rate drops. Ponder these California examples of one-year dips …
Rates down half-percentage-point or more: Home prices rose 3.6% in 12 months on average in these situations. Again, a weak economy, as California’s unemployment rate averaged a 0.9-point increase in a year.
Off three-quarters-point or more: Prices up 2.5%. Unemployment up 1.1 points.
Off 1 point or more: Prices rise 4.2%. Unemployment up 0.6 points.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
Originally Published:
California
CA Senator Alex Padilla denounces Trump’s SAVE America Act, warns of voter suppression
California Senator Alex Padilla has been one of the loudest voices in the Senate against President Trump’s SAVE America Act, fighting against it on the Senate floor on Tuesday.
“I don’t put anything past Donald Trump in trying to hold on to power,” Padilla told Eyewitness News in a one-on-one interview last week.
The SAVE Act would require all U.S. voters to provide documentary proof of citizenship to register and a photo ID to vote. Padilla says it would disenfranchise millions of eligible American citizens from making their voices heard.
“Your own driver’s license wouldn’t be sufficient to be able to cast your ballot. We’re talking passports or original birth certificates. If you’re a woman who changed her name when she got married, good luck trying to meet the documentary requirements to be able to exercise your right to vote,” said Padilla.
We’re less than two months from the California primary and almost six months from the 2026 midterms. Democrats like Padilla fear we could see ICE raids at polling places.
“It is against the law for that type of law enforcement presence to intimidate voters at the polls… When we heard that it was being entertained by the White House, we started asking the question. Then, multiple Department of Homeland Security officials on record publicly saying, ‘No, there’s no plans to do that. No, that wouldn’t be allowed.’ But we have to remain vigilant. Look, all the more reason for people to vote early, which you can in California, and vote by mail just to not have to worry about that potential come Election Day,” Padilla said.
Padilla tells Eyewitness News the biggest way he believes Democrats can rein in the president is by regaining their majority in Congress in the midterms. Trump went to war with Iran without approval from Congress. In a new IPSOS poll, 51% of Americans say the decision to take military action in Iran has not been worth it. Another 24% say it has been worth it, and 22% are unsure.
“A ceasefire is not a peace agreement. A ceasefire, and if it holds in two weeks, then what? The one thing that’s clear, though, is Donald Trump never justified, gave a clear reason, for beginning this war with Iran,” Padilla said.
Trump said Tuesday that a new round of peace talks with Iran in Pakistan could happen in the coming days. A deal wasn’t reached over the weekend after Vice President JD Vance said Iran refused to give up their nuclear program. Padilla blames the war for rising gas prices and inflation.
“For all his distaste for California, California’s policy leadership and electric vehicles, all of a sudden these cleaner, more efficient and zero-emitting vehicles are a lot more attractive,” Padilla said.
When it comes to the crowded and chaotic governor’s race, Padilla told Eyewitness News he thinks that at this point, one Democrat and one Republican will move on to the runoff. So far, Padilla has not endorsed a candidate.
Copyright © 2026 KABC Television, LLC. All rights reserved.
California
Suspect in Molotov attack at Sam Altman’s California home set to appear in court
SAN FRANCISCO — The man accused of trying to kill OpenAI CEO Sam Altman by throwing a Molotov cocktail at his San Francisco home is set to make an initial court appearance Tuesday.
Daniel Moreno-Gama, of Spring, Texas, traveled to San Francisco last week and hurled the incendiary device at Altman’s home Friday, setting an exterior gate on fire before fleeing on foot, authorities said. Less than an hour later, Moreno-Gama went to OpenAI’s headquarters about 3 miles (5 kilometers) away and threatened to burn down the building, they said.
No one was injured at Altman’s home or the company’s offices.
Authorities said Moreno-Gama, 20, expressed hatred of artificial intelligence in his writings, describing it as a danger to humanity and warning of “impending extinction,” according to court filings.
“This was not spontaneous. This was planned, targeted and extremely serious,” FBI San Francisco Acting Special Agent in Charge Matt Cobo said during a news conference Monday.
Moreno-Gama is charged in California state court with two counts of attempted murder and attempted arson, San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins said. He tried to kill both Altman and a security guard at Altman’s residence, she alleged. Officials have not said whether Altman was home at the time.
Online state court records do not yet show whether Moreno-Gama has an attorney who can speak on his behalf.
Craig Missakian, U.S. Attorney, Northern District of California, middle, speaks during a news conference Monday, April 13, 2026, in San Francisco. Credit: AP/Jeff Chiu
Jenkins said the state charges carry penalties ranging from 19 years to life in prison.
On Monday morning, FBI agents went to Moreno-Gama’s home in a Houston suburb where they spent several hours before leaving. He has also been charged by federal prosecutors with possession of an unregistered firearm and damage and destruction of property by means of explosives. Those charges carry respective penalties of up to 10 years and 20 years in prison.
“We will treat this as an act of domestic terrorism, and together with our partners, prosecute him to the fullest extent of the law,” U.S. Attorney Craig Missakian said when announcing the federal charges Monday.
The federal court documents do not list an attorney for Moreno-Gama, and he has not yet had his first appearance in federal court.
The document in which Moreno-Gama discussed his opposition to AI also made threats against Altman and executives at other AI companies, officials said.
“If I am going to advocate for others to kill and commit crimes, then I must lead by example and show that I am fully sincere in my message,” Moreno-Gama wrote, according to authorities.
Advocacy groups that have issued grave warnings about AI’s risks to society condemned the violence.
Anthony Aguirre, president and CEO of the Future of Life Institute, said in a written statement Friday that “violence and intimidation of any kind have no place in the conversation about the future of AI.”
Another group, PauseAI, said in a statement that the suspect had no role in the group but joined its forum on the social media platform Discord about two years ago and posted about 34 messages there, none containing explicit calls to violence but one that was flagged as “ambiguous.”
Discord said Monday that it has banned Moreno-Gama for “off-platform behavior.”
California
California dad charged with incest after allegedly assaulting daughter; DA may drop case
Dad charged with incest after allegedly assaulting daughter
Makayla Rene Settles moved to California to chase her dreams. Two days later, her family says her biological father sexually assaulted her. She was 18. She died five months later. Now her family is fighting to make sure her accused attacker faces trial.
VENTURA COUNTY, Calif. – When Makayla Rene Settles turned 18, she left Raleigh, North Carolina, for a fresh start. She moved to Moorpark, California, to live with her biological father, Stephen Vincent Chavez, with plans to attend college and build a new life. Two days after she arrived, her family says she called terrified and asking for help.
“It was just the fear in her voice, her crying. I didn’t need details. I knew something was wrong, and I said, ‘I’m on the way,’” said Carolina Sandoval, Makayla’s mother.
Carolina says she rushed to Chavez’s home. When she saw her daughter, she was devastated.
“She’s barely walking,” Carolina said. “My brother picks her up and hugs her.”
Makayla was taken to a hospital, where a rape kit was performed. According to the family, the results came back positive for Stephen Vincent Chavez’s DNA. He was arrested that same night and charged with incest, taking advantage of a position of trust, and providing alcohol to a minor.
Her cousin, Crystal Sandoval, was in disbelief. She said, “I was screaming, I was crying. I just kept thinking, why would he do that to her? This is something she could not come back from.”
Crystal was right. Five months later, Makayla Rene Settles died by suicide.
“If I’m being honest, it feels like I handed my daughter to the devil,” said Carolina.
On the night Makayla was taken to the hospital, Sandoval says Chavez sent her a text message. It read, “I’m never drinking liquor again. I don’t want that blackout to happen again.”
Now, the family says they’ve been dealt another devastating blow. According to Crystal Sandoval, the Ventura County DA’s Office has told them the case may not go to trial because Makayla is no longer alive to testify.
“The DA was essentially saying, ‘We don’t know if we have a case because she’s no longer here,’ and when she told me that, I immediately said, ‘No, we’re not going to let that slide,’” said Crystal.
Determined to get justice, Crystal took to social media. Her videos went viral, drawing widespread outrage and prompting hundreds to promise to show up to Chavez’s next court hearing, scheduled for April 21 at the Ventura County Courthouse.
“It was like he took her sunshine away and just kind of broke her soul,” Crystal said.
The Ventura County District Attorney’s Office issued the following statement:
“We have seen the posts online and want to let the public know that our Sexual Assault Unit continues to prosecute the defendant for this extremely serious crime. This case has been filed since July 2025, when the evidence supported the filing of felony charges. As with any case, prosecutors filed charges based on the evidence. The court sets bail. Our office successfully moved to increase bail to $250K in July 2025 when the case was filed. The defendant requested that bail be reduced, but we successfully argued against that. The defendant has since posted $250K bail and is out of custody. With respect to the upcoming hearing, the April 21 date is an early disposition conference. This is a standard pretrial proceeding where the court and parties address the status of the case and set future dates as appropriate.”
Despite that statement, the family says they have already been told a trial is not guaranteed, and they are not backing down. Chavez has pleaded not guilty. His next court hearing is April 21 at 8:30 a.m. in Courtroom 14 at the Ventura County Courthouse.
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