The Alaskan permafrost is thawing. Here’s why that’s so worrying

By Jackie Flynn Mogensen edited by Claire Cameron

Thawing permafrost is among climate science’s worst “positive feedback loops”: As the world warms, permafrost—essentially frozen soil—thaws, releasing fresh water and carbon into the environment. That release further fuels climate change, driving more warming. (Thawing permafrost has also raised concerns about unleashing new pathogens on humanity.)

And in Alaska, the loop seems to be speeding up. In a new study, researchers track how thawing permafrost in the North Slope region of Alaska—an area the size of Wisconsin—has added fresh water and dissolved organic carbon to estuaries off the Alaskan coast between 1980 and 2023.

In more recent years, the region released nearly 12 cubic kilometers (three trillion gallons) more water per year than it did in the 1980s. That’s enough to fill more than 4.5 million Olympic swimming pools, estimates Michael Rawlins, lead author of the study and an extension associate professor of Earth, geographic and climate sciences at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

On supporting science journalism

If you’re enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.

Fresh water is a problem for the ocean—it disrupts sea ice formation, alters the salinity of coastal lagoons and bays, could threaten global ocean circulation and carries carbon that’s later released into the atmosphere.

From the early 1980s to 2023, the amount of carbon that northern Alaska’s rivers release into the ocean every year has risen from about 120 gigagrams to about 170 gigagrams—an increase of about 50,000 metric tons of carbon.

“Some of that carbon has been locked up for tens of thousands of years. It’s now thawed, mobilized in the rivers, gets to the ocean, where some of it becomes part of the atmosphere,” Rawlins says, comparing this to fossil fuel extraction. “Outgassing”—the release of methane or carbon dioxide—can happen from rivers directly before it reaches the ocean, too.

The study could help researchers better understand permafrost-fueled carbon emissions across the Arctic, a region that is warming about three times faster than the rest of the planet, scientists estimate.

“As we try to better understand the amount of carbon in the ocean, we need good estimates of the amount coming out of these rivers,” Rawlins says.

The findings were published on Wednesday in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles.

It’s Time to Stand Up for Science

If you enjoyed this article, I’d like to ask for your support. Scientific American has served as an advocate for science and industry for 180 years, and right now may be the most critical moment in that two-century history.

I’ve been a Scientific American subscriber since I was 12 years old, and it helped shape the way I look at the world. SciAm always educates and delights me, and inspires a sense of awe for our vast, beautiful universe. I hope it does that for you, too.

If you subscribe to Scientific American, you help ensure that our coverage is centered on meaningful research and discovery; that we have the resources to report on the decisions that threaten labs across the U.S.; and that we support both budding and working scientists at a time when the value of science itself too often goes unrecognized.

In return, you get essential news, captivating podcasts, brilliant infographics, can’t-miss newsletters, must-watch videos, challenging games, and the science world’s best writing and reporting. You can even gift someone a subscription.

There has never been a more important time for us to stand up and show why science matters. I hope you’ll support us in that mission.

In theory, packing for an Alaskan cruise can feel a little chaotic. On one hand, you have glaciers, whales, crisp air, and all things outdoorsy. And on the other hand: cozy dinners, lounging on deck with coffee and binoculars, and the very real desire to still feel like yourself (ie: cute and comfy but practical). So, I put this packing list together the same way I build most of my outfits…starting with layers that actually make sense, and then adding in a few pieces that make everything feel pulled together.

Alaskan Cruise Packing List: What to Wear for Excursions, Glacier Sightseeing & Port Towns

The goal here is really versatility without overpacking (always easier said than done when it comes to packing). So this Alaskan cruise packing list all about layer-able knits, relaxed denim, practical, wear-everywhere outerwear, and shoes that can handle a little adventure and still work back on board.

01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06A | 06B | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24

My essential wardrobe for an Alaskan Cruise is all about a mix of functionality and style, pieces you can throw on for early morning excursions, then rewear for dinner with just a quick switch. Basically, everything you need to stay warm, comfortable, and still feel like yourself…even when you are staring at a literal glacier.

Here are 5 outfits I put together for activities/situations onboard!

Outfit 1: Casual Day on the Cruise 

This is exactly the kind of outfit I would find myself reaching for on a casual day onboard an Alaskan cruise: comfortable, layered and just pulled together enough to feel like I tried (even if I didn’t). A relaxed sweatshirt layered over an easy tee paired with some soft sweatpants, work for those in-between temps, especially when the weather can shift fast and I love having a pair of comfy slippers for lounging on deck. Add in binoculars and a good book and you’re set for a slow, scenic day at sea.

01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07

Outfit 2: Dinner on an Alaskan Cruise 

Evenings on an Alaskan cruise call for a mix of soft, pretty, versatile and actually warm and this outfit definitely hits that balance. Doen’s Hardy Ruffle Pintuck Organic Cotton Top paired with Reformation’s Carolina Lace Trim Silk Skirt feels elevated and even a little romantic but easy to move around in for dinner, without being too fussy. Add in a wool wrap coat from Marine Layer helps make sense of the whole outfit once you step outside. It’s polished but still relaxed, exactly the kind of look that feels right for dinner with a view.

01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06

Outfit 3: Glacier Viewing

Glacier sightseeing calls for layers you can actually move in, not a puffer so bulky you can’t move your binoculars. This combo of a J.Crew roll-neck sweater over a smartwool base layer, topped with a quilted fleece, means you can peel back layers when it warms up (or doesn’t…it is Alaska after all). The Agolde jeans do the heavy lifting in the styling department, because you can look put-together while watching a glacier. These Sorel booties that Shana swears by, handle the rocky terrain (aka the deck) so you’re not white-knuckling the railing the whole time.

01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08

Outfit 4: Excursion Day 

An excursion day on an Alaskan cruise is essentially a pop quiz on if you actually know how to dress for the weather…and these are the answers. Ruti’s relaxed barrel-leg pants are doing the unexpected heavy lifting here: relaxed enough to hike in, cool enough that you won’t look like everyone else on the zodiac boat. Layer an Outdoor Research fleece under a Barbour rain jacket and you’ve got a system that handles whatever the day is throwing at you. The tote bag converts to a backpack so you’re hands-free for the good stuff: the sea otters, bald eagles and the whale that shows up right when your phone dies.

01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07

Outfit 5: Port Town Exploring

Port towns exploring are basically just a good excuse to look impossibly cool yet totally nonchalant and relaxed, and this outfit delivers. An oversized cashmere sweater tucked into Agolde Wide-leg jeans under a wrap wool coat is the kind of effortless layering that takes zero effort to pull off and approximately one hundred compliments to endure. The Adidas Tokyo sneakers do the hard work here: enough grip for cobblestones, enough style credibility that you won’t be mistaken for a tourist, even if you are one.

01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06

As always, thank you so much for reading and if you have any questions or content you’d like to see cover, lemme know in the comments! Until next time,

xo, Jess ( My Instagram | More of My Posts )

MANLEY HOT SPRINGS — It’s so quiet in these spruce hills and tamarack swamps that 27 hours and 50 miles passed between when Forest Wagner and I said goodbye to one human being at Old Minto and hello to the next near Baker.

Space is in ample supply here on these pressed-in snow trails between towns and villages of Interior Alaska.

Forest and I are out riding these ephemeral ribbons of blue-white, moving westward with a goal of reaching Nome.

Last Saturday, when it warmed to minus 12 degrees Fahrenheit, I lurched my loaded fat bike out of my home in Fairbanks. Saying goodbye to my wife and dogs, I rumbled eastward on a boot-packed trail that after a mile led to a plowed bike path. I then rolled through the familiar University of Alaska Fairbanks campus and onward 8 miles to Forest’s cabin. 

He handed me a mug of coffee and an egg sandwich. Then we started pedaling our fat bikes down Chena Pump Road until we reached the Tanana River.

We found a trail groomed for a multisport winter race, turned right, and headed downstream on our home river, which was half a mile wide. It was a day when the weather finally nodded toward spring. Fair-a-dise showed up with bluebird skies as the day warmed to 8 degrees Fahrenheit.

After a month of pillowy snows and crazy cold temperatures and retelling people our new takeoff days to semi-suppressed eye rolls, we were finally unstuck from the glue of town.

If an object wasn’t hanging off our bikes, we didn’t need it. No more fiddling with the load or obsessing on the seven-day weather forecast. Just big ol’ tires humming on dry snow.

Now, five days and 145 miles later, Forest and I are digesting French toast and bacon our friend Steve O’Brien cooked for us as we wait on the dryer in the Manley washeteria. When we get a few dollar bills, we will take showers.

It’s a good life here on the trail, just-add-water living at its finest. Eat everything in front of you, apply some sunblock, and keep mashing on the pedals.

O’Brien is one of the many people helping us move westward. In one of the most clutch moments, my wife Kristen and our friend Jen Wenrick appeared wearing headlamps on the packed snow ramp off the Tanana River in Nenana. They handed us burgers and fries from the Monderosa.

After a surprise tough day due to soft trail that had us working real hard, those burgers and Cokes were like oxygen.

There have been many other acts of kindness from Jenna and David Jonas, Steve Ketzler, Forest’s dad Joe Wagner and others. Tonic for the body and soul.

We will meet more excellent people, including some old friends, as we ratchet toward Nome.

When my satellite tracker is on, you can see our arrow creeping across the landscape here: https://share.garmin.com/NedRozell. 

Since the late 1970s, the University of Alaska Fairbanks’ Geophysical Institute has provided this column free in cooperation with the UAF research community. Ned Rozell is a science writer for the Geophysical Institute. 

  biking, nome, travel