Sports
Our experts’ midseason College Football Playoff, national championship and Heisman picks
How much has the outlook for the college football season changed since the preseason?
It may not feel like a lot, but The Athletic’s consensus midseason national championship pick received zero votes two months ago in the preseason, and the Heisman Trophy favorite is now a running back from a Group of 5 team.
In August, we surveyed 28 of The Athletic’s college football writers and editors for their preseason national title, Playoff and Heisman predictions. After seven eventful weeks of the regular season, we surveyed 30 writers and editors for updated thoughts on how the 2024 college football season will play out. Here are the results — and how opinions have changed.
Who will win the national championship?
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
|---|---|---|
|
50.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
36.7% |
57.1% |
|
|
6.7% |
10.7% |
|
|
3.3% |
0.0% |
|
|
3.3% |
28.6% |
|
|
0.0% |
3.6% |
Fifteen of our 30 voters predict that Texas, the top-ranked team in the AP poll, will win its first national championship since 2005 — a big change after the Longhorns received zero votes in the preseason. Ohio State, our preseason favorite with more than half of the votes in August, still comes in second with 11 votes despite its loss last week to Oregon, which received just two votes after getting three in the preseason. Clearly, most of our staff believes the Buckeyes are capable of getting revenge in the Big Ten title game and beyond.
Clemson and Georgia rounded out our national championship picks with one vote apiece. We asked one voter for each team to explain their choice:
Why Texas?
The Longhorns have been the most complete team in the country this season, ranking 11th in yards per play on offense and first in yards per play allowed on defense. They dominated Michigan on the road, they dominated rival Oklahoma in Dallas, and they have a chance to earn a statement win back home vs. Georgia this week. They also have depth, with the offense not skipping a beat when Arch Manning had to replace starting quarterback Quinn Ewers for two weeks, and it doesn’t even feel like they’ve hit their ceiling yet. — Matt Brown
GO DEEPER
No. 1 Texas hasn’t peaked yet. What happens when it does?
Why Ohio State?
The Buckeyes were my preseason pick, and it’s hard to move off that after they played what was essentially a draw with another top-five team on the road. I would like to see more from Ohio State’s supposedly vaunted defense, but facing Oregon could be a pivot point where defensive coordinator Jim Knowles and the Buckeyes get a better idea of how they need to play against elite competition. The loss of left tackle Josh Simmons is worrisome. Maybe I’ll feel different if Texas womps Georgia on Saturday. I still think Ryan Day and Ohio State complete the mission. — Ralph Russo
Why Oregon?
We were all curious about how Oregon would handle the moment in a marquee matchup against Ohio State, and boy did the Ducks live up to the hype. Dan Lanning’s team got its signature win and officially has everyone’s attention as a frontrunner to pull this off. Yes, it’s hard to pick against Texas, given how the Longhorns have played thus far. But Dillon Gabriel has the experience Oregon needs down the stretch, and the Ducks’ schedule sets up nicely for them to win the Big Ten and earn a coveted first-round bye. — Grace Raynor
GO DEEPER
Oregon’s epic win a testament to Dan Lanning’s elite talent-stacking
Why Georgia?
Talent and continuity win out. No team is elite this year, but Georgia isn’t far from it. Even with their flaws, the Bulldogs are a great bet. I can’t believe I’m the only one who picked them. Games are won on the line of scrimmage, and Texas may be the only team that can rival the Bulldogs’ fronts on both sides of the ball. Carson Beck still can play his way to QB1 in the NFL draft next year, and if he does, it’ll be because of his ability and not because his receivers made plays for him. Plus, he has a solid run game supporting him. — David Ubben
Why Clemson?
It’s hard to blame anyone who closed the door on taking Clemson seriously after Georgia hit the after-burners in the season opener, but the Tigers have cruised since then thanks to a deep defense, a bruising workhorse back in Phil Mafah and steady play from quarterback Cade Klubnik, who has thrown just one interception since Malaki Starks’ highlight-reel pick in Week 1. With tighter turnarounds and less certain matchups than its four-team predecessor, the 12-team Playoff is going to reward multi-dimensional teams that know how to peak in December. For all the concerns about the ceiling lowering on Dabo Swinney’s program in recent years, those are two areas in which you can still count on Clemson. — Eric Single
What does our projections model say?
Ohio State is still on top of the national championship race in Austin Mock’s College Football Playoff projections model, winning the national title in 21 percent of our simulations. The Buckeyes are followed by Georgia (16 percent), Texas (15 percent), Oregon (11 percent), Penn State (10 percent), Alabama (8 percent), Miami (5 percent) and Clemson (5 percent).
GO DEEPER
College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Texas, Oregon at top; Indiana moves into bracket
Who will lose in the national title game?
Not only is Texas our most popular national championship pick, but it’s also our most popular runner-up. Twenty-six of 30 voters picked the Longhorns to get to the national title game in Atlanta, with 11 of those voters calling for a Texas loss.
Including the one championship vote for Clemson above, our staff voted for only five teams to appear in the national title game. Texas vs. Ohio State (16) is the most common matchup with more than half the votes, while Oregon vs. Texas (six) is the only other pairing to receive more than two votes.
National title game matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
|
Ohio State vs. Texas |
18 |
|
Oregon vs. Texas |
6 |
|
Georgia vs. Ohio State |
2 |
|
Georgia vs. Texas |
2 |
|
Clemson vs. Oregon |
1 |
|
Georgia vs. Oregon |
1 |
Who we’re picking to make the Playoff
Even with half the season remaining, there’s not a lot of variety in our predictions. Only 18 teams received at least one vote to make the 12-team Playoff, with Texas, Ohio State, Boise State, Penn State and Miami going 30-for-30. Oregon surprisingly was left off one ballot but is still viewed as almost a lock, along with Georgia (29 votes) and Clemson (28). Three people picked Boise State to earn a first-round bye — remember, there are five automatic bids and the byes go to the four highest-ranked conference champions, not necessarily all four Power 4 conference champions.
Alabama (24), Iowa State (22) and Notre Dame (20) appeared on at least two-thirds of ballots. And shout out to Indiana, which appeared on three ballots in Curt Cignetti’s first season — after surely not being considered on any in the preseason.
The two teams that have plummeted from the Playoff race are Utah (71.4 percent of ballots in the preseason) and Florida State (67.9 percent), which are nowhere to be found on ballots now.
GO DEEPER
Which college football teams’ Playoff odds have changed the most at midseason?
Who will earn automatic Playoff bids?
All percentages are the share of our staff’s votes, not odds of winning. Find full Playoff projection and conference title odds based on our model here.
ACC
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
|---|---|---|
|
63.3% |
7.1% |
|
|
36.7% |
35.7% |
|
|
0.0% |
46.4% |
|
|
0.0% |
7.1% |
|
|
0.0% |
3.6% |
After five ACC teams received conference championship votes in the preseason, only two did at midseason: Miami (19 of 30) and Clemson (11). Nobody opted for a sleeper pick like Pitt (6-0 overall) or SMU (5-1).
Big 12
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
|---|---|---|
|
46.7% |
10.7% |
|
|
30.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
23.3% |
25.0% |
|
|
0.0% |
57.1% |
|
|
0.0% |
7.1% |
Utah was the pick of more than half of our staff in the preseason but has fallen off to zero with two losses and quarterback Cam Rising out for the season. At the top now are the two surprise undefeated teams, Iowa State and BYU. But Kansas State is still lurking right behind them.
Big Ten
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
|---|---|---|
|
66.7% |
85.7% |
|
|
33.3% |
14.3% |
Ohio State and Oregon were the only teams to receive votes in the preseason, and they’re still the only teams to receive votes now, even though Penn State and Indiana are undefeated.
And even though Oregon beat Ohio State last week, two-thirds of our staff likes the Buckeyes’ chances if they get to Indianapolis.
SEC
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
|---|---|---|
|
96.7% |
14.3% |
|
|
3.3% |
82.1% |
|
|
0.0% |
3.6% |
Texas has become the runaway favorite, receiving all but one vote to win the SEC championship at midseason. The other went to Georgia, which visits the Longhorns on Saturday. Alabama beat Georgia, but it didn’t garner a single SEC championship vote after its loss to Vanderbilt and a close call against South Carolina.
Group of 5
|
Team
|
Midseason
|
Preseason
|
Conf
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
100.0% |
17.9% |
MWC |
|
|
0.0% |
39.3% |
AAC |
|
|
0.0% |
21.4% |
CUSA |
|
|
0.0% |
10.7% |
SBC |
|
|
0.0% |
7.1% |
SBC |
|
|
0.0% |
3.6% |
MWC |
All 30 voters picked Boise State to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion. The Broncos have a Heisman Trophy candidate in tailback Ashton Jeanty and lost only by three points at Oregon. They have a pivotal game next week at UNLV, which is also in the mix from the Mountain West.
Army, Navy and Liberty are the three other undefeated teams. Army and Navy both have a game against Notre Dame to impress the selection committee, while Liberty continues to have a quiet season against one of the nation’s weakest schedules, which makes it a long shot despite continuing to win.
Who will win the Heisman Trophy?
| Player | Team | Pos | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Ashton Jeanty |
RB |
40.0% |
|
|
Cam Ward |
QB |
30.0% |
|
|
Travis Hunter |
WR/CB |
16.7% |
|
|
Dillon Gabriel |
QB |
13.3% |
Eight players received votes in the preseason, and that number is down to just four. The favorite to win the award in December, at 12 votes out of 30, is Jeanty, who also topped our midseason straw poll showing how our staff would vote right now. Jeanty has 1,248 yards and 17 touchdowns through six games. If he keeps up that pace, it may be hard to deny him.
A pair of quarterbacks for undefeated teams in Cam Ward (nine votes) and Gabriel (four votes) make the list, in addition to a handful of votes going to Hunter (five votes), Colorado’s two-way star.
(Top photos: Gregory Shamus and Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
Sports
Jessica Pegula’s commitment to hard work every day has turned her into a leader
INDIAN WELLS — Jessica Pegula never needed tennis.
She simply kept showing up for it anyway, through the long and often anonymous slog of the professional tour.
Now 32 and the oldest player in the top 10, Pegula is having her best season start yet.
The fifth-ranked American reached the Australian Open semifinals for the first time in January, falling to eventual champion Elena Rybakina. She followed that by capturing the Dubai 1000-level tournament, just a rung below the majors.
She is 15-2 so far in 2026, tied with Victoria Mboko in match wins and second only to Ukraine’s Elina Svitolina (17-3), who she defeated 6-2, 6-4 in the Dubai final.
Pegula is guaranteed to emerge from this week’s BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells as the top-ranked American, overtaking No. 4 Coco Gauff, if she reaches the final.
Jessica Pegula kisses the Dubai trophy after defeating Elina Svitolina in the finals on Feb. 21.
(Altaf Qadri / Associated Press)
First, she will have to get past No. 12-seed Belinda Bencic of Switzerland, her fourth-round opponent on Wednesday. Bencic has not dropped a set in four previous meetings with Pegula.
“That will be a challenge for me,” said the characteristically even-keeled Pegula after defeating former French Open champion Jelena Ostapenko in the third round on Monday.
A late bloomer, Pegula has taken the long road.
She failed to qualify for Grand Slam main draws in 12 of 14 attempts from 2011 to 2018, and didn’t reach the third round at a major until the 2020 U.S. Open at age 26. All three of her Grand Slam semifinal runs — along with her 2024 U.S. Open final — have come after she turned 30.
Pegula said this week that her patience and persistence stem from “always being a little more mature for my age even when I was younger.”
“I think as I’ve gotten older, your perspective changes as well,” she added.
Pegula, whose parents are principal owners of the NFL’s Buffalo Bills and the NHL’s Buffalo Sabres, acknowledges that her wealthy family background can cut two ways.
Financial security offers freedom to push through the sport’s early years on tour, when results are uncertain and the grind is relentless. That same cushion might make it easier to walk away if the climb becomes too frustrating.
Jessica Pegula plays a backhand against Donna Vekic during their match at the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells.
(Clive Brunskill / Getty Images)
Pegula says her motivation to pursue tennis came well before her family’s fortune grew.
“I’ve been wanting to be a professional tennis player and No. 1 in the world since I was like 7,” she said in a small interview room after beating Ostapenko this week.
“It’s a privilege, but at the same time I don’t want to do myself a disservice of not taking the opportunity as well,” she explained. “I’ve always looked at it that way.”
In the last few seasons, that maturity on the court has dovetailed with a growing leadership role off it.
Pegula has served for years on the WTA Player Council and was recently tapped to chair the tour’s new Tour Architecture Council, a working group tasked with examining the increasingly demanding schedule and structural pressures players say have intensified in recent seasons. The panel is expected to explore changes that could reshape the calendar and player workload in coming years.
Pegula said she hadn’t put up her hand to be involved but agreed after several players approached her to take the lead role — though she declined to say who they were.
“I think maybe as you mature … you realize how important it is to give back to the sport,” she said last week.
Life has also provided grounding and a wider lens.
Pegula’s mother, Kim, suffered a serious cardiac arrest in 2022, a situation she discussed in detail in a moving 2023 essay for “The Players’ Tribune.”
The Buffalo native and Florida resident also married businessman Taylor Gahagen in 2021. Gahagen helps “holds down the fort” at home with the couple’s dogs and travels with her when possible. He is with her in Indian Wells.
“I have an amazing support system,” Pegula says.
Despite winning 10 WTA singles titles, achieving a career singles high of No. 3 in 2022 and the No. 1 doubles ranking, Pegula’s low-key demeanor means she flies a bit under the radar.
She’s not one for fashion statements, outlandish antics or attention-seeking initiatives, her joint podcast with close friend Madison Keys notwithstanding.
Instead, Pegula tends to go about her business quietly, relying on a calm temperament and a methodical style that wears opponents down over time.
She gets the job done — the Tim Duncan of the women’s tour.
“She’s just all about lacing them up and competing between the lines, and then trying to be as big an asset as she can to her peers off the court,” says Mark Knowles, the former doubles standout who has shared coaching duties with Mark Merklein since early 2024.
“I think one of her great attributes is she’s very level-headed,” Knowles adds. “She doesn’t get too high, doesn’t get too low.”
Her tennis identity echoes her steadiness.
Instead of bludgeoning opponents with power, the 5-foot-7 Pegula beats them with savvy, steadiness and tactical variety. A careful student of the game, she studies matchups and patrols the court with a composed efficiency that incrementally drains big hitters and outmaneuvers most rivals long before the final score confirms it.
Keys calls that consistency her “superpower.”
“She doesn’t lose matches that she shouldn’t lose,” the 2025 Australian Open champion said this week.
Because of injuries in the early part of her career, Knowles says Pegula might have less wear-and-tear than other players her age. And he and her team have prioritized rest and recovery, which included the decision to skip the tournament in Doha last month following her tiring Australian Open run.
On brand, there was no panic in Pegula after dropping the first set in her two matches so far at Indian Wells. As she’s done all season, she steadied herself to earn three-set wins.
Bucket-list goals remain, however. Chiefly, capturing a Grand Slam title.
Jessica Pegula returns a shot to Jelena Ostapenko during the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells on Monday.
(Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
Pegula jokes that she briefly interrupted a run of American female success when she fell in the 2024 U.S. Open final to No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka. But seeing close friend and teenage phenom Keys capture her major in Melbourne last year — after many wondered if her window had passed — hit closer to home.
“I think Madison winning Australia just motivated me even more,” Pegula says.
Although Pegula believes she is among the best hardcourt players in women’s tennis, that confidence hasn’t translated into success in the California desert. She has reached the quarterfinals just once in 10 previous appearances in Indian Wells.
“Why not try and add that one to the resume?” says Knowles, noting that she had never won the title in Dubai until last month. “She’s playing still at a very high level.”
Pegula says the key to keeping things fresh is maintaining her love of the game by continuing to improve and experiment with new ideas, a process that keeps her engaged mentally and eager to compete.
“I’m not afraid to kind of take that risk of changing and working on different things,” she says, “which just keeps my mind working and problem solving.”
For a player who never needed tennis, she remains determined to see how much more it can give her.
Sports
Miami Heat star Bam Adebayo makes NBA history with 83-point game
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Miami Heat star Bam Adebayo made NBA history on Tuesday night.
Adebayo scored 83 points, all while setting league marks for free throws made and attempted in a game for the Miami Heat in a 150-129 win over the Washington Wizards. It is the second-highest scoring game for a player ever, only to Wilt Chamberlain’s famed 100-point game.
“An absolutely surreal night,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra told reporters after the game.
Adebayo started with a 31-point first quarter. He was up to 43 at halftime, 62 by the end of the third quarter. And then came the fourth, when the milestones kept falling despite facing double-, triple- and what once appeared to be a quadruple-team from a Wizards defense that kept sending him to the foul line.
He finished 20 of 43 from the field, 36 of 43 from the foul line, 7 for 22 from 3-point range.
After the game, he was seen in tears while he hugged his mother, Marilyn Blount, before leaving the floor after the game.
“Welp won’t have the highest career high in the house anymore,” Adebayo’s girlfriend, four-time WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson, wrote on social media, “but at least it gives me something to go after.”
MAGIC’S ANTHONY BLACK MAKES INCREDIBLE DUNK OVER FOUR DEFENDERS IN HISTORIC NBA GAME
Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat celebrates during the fourth quarter of the game against the Washington Wizards at Kaseya Center on March 10, 2026, in Miami, Florida. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
The NBA’s previous best this season was 56, by Nikola Jokic for Denver against Minnesota on Christmas night. The last player to have 62 points through three quarters: one of Adebayo’s basketball heroes, Kobe Bryant, who had exactly that many through three quarters for the Los Angeles Lakers against Dallas on Dec. 20, 2005.
He wound up passing Bryant for single-game scoring as well. Bryant’s career-best was 81 — a game that was the second-best on the NBA scoring list for two decades.
Adebayo scored 31 points in the opening quarter against the Wizards, breaking the Heat record for points in any quarter — and tying the team record for points in a first half before the second quarter even started.
He finished the first half with 43 points, a team record for any half and two points better than his previous career high — for a full game, that is — of 41, set Jan. 23, 2021, against Brooklyn.
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Adebayo’s season high entering Tuesday was 32. He matched that with a free throw with 5:53 left in the second quarter, breaking the Heat first-half scoring record.
Adebayo’s 43-point first half was the NBA’s second-best in at least the last 30 seasons — going back to the start of the digital play-by-play era that began in the 1996-97 season.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Sports
Kings lose in overtime to the Boston Bruins
BOSTON — Charlie McAvoy scored 39 seconds into overtime and Jeremy Swayman stopped 14 shots on Tuesday night to earn the Boston Bruins their 13th straight victory at home, 2-1 over the Kings.
Mason Lohrei scored midway through the third period to break a scoreless tie. But the Kings tied it five minutes later when Drew Doughty’s shot from the blue line deflected off the heel of Bruins forward Elias Lindholm and into the net.
It was the seventh straight time the teams had gone to overtime in Boston.
In the overtime, Mark Kastelic blocked a shot in the defensive zone and made a long pass to David Pastrnak, who waited for McAvoy to come into the zone. The Bruins’ defenseman and U.S. Olympian, who went to the locker room at the end of the second period after taking a puck off his mouth, skated in on Darcy Kuemper and went to his backhand for the winner.
Kuemper stopped 21 shots for the Kings, who entered the night one point out of the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference. The victory kept Boston in possession of the East’s second wild-card spot.
Swayman tied his career high with his 25th win of the season. The Bruins haven’t lost at the TD Garden since before Christmas.
After the game, Kings forward and future Hall of Famer Anze Kopitar stayed on the ice to shake hands with the Bruins after what is expected to be his last game in Boston.
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