Sports
How do Nottingham Forest keep beating the Premier League’s ‘Big Six’ with hardly any of the ball?
Have Nottingham Forest worked out a foolproof method of beating the Premier League’s ‘Big Six’?
Tuesday’s 1-0 victory against Manchester United took them to 18 points from a possible 30 in their head-to-head encounters with the Premier League’s historical and financial giants so far this season.
Of the division’s other 14 clubs, only Brighton and Hove Albion can match Forest’s rate of success against Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur this season, and crucially, those points have put Forest into an extremely strong position in the race for Champions League qualification.
But whereas Brighton often go toe-to-toe stylistically with their more illustrious opponents, the manner in which Forest have achieved their results is even more remarkable.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side rarely dominate the ball — their 32 per cent average possession is the lowest of any team in these matches. They also create relatively little — no side has a lower average xG in fixtures against the ‘Big Six’ — and they press less intensely than any other side in the division.
So how, despite seemingly lacking the hallmarks of a successful modern side, have they done it? Let’s break it down.
Nuno celebrates with Anthony Elanga after the victory against Manchester United in midweek (Michael Steele/Getty Images)
While Forest have admittedly created little in ‘Big Six’ encounters, they have been highly effective at stifling their opponents at the other end. Among all games involving ‘Big Six’ teams this season, Forest’s fixtures have the lowest average combined xG at just 2.3. In matches like these where opportunities are at a premium, the opening goal becomes all the more decisive — and Forest have developed a knack for striking first, scoring the opener in 24 of their 30 league matches, more than any other side in 2024-25.
Their ability to restrain opposition attacks stems from a combination of a compact shape, direct approach, and the speed of their transitions. The results are a record of just one goal conceded in five home games against the ‘Big Six’ so far this season, with just Chelsea to come.
Chance creation from fast breaks is a key feature of many ‘Big Six’ teams — five of the six rank in the top six for xG from counter-attacks (Manchester City being the exception, with their more methodical build-up). But Forest rarely overcommit in possession and therefore find themselves less exposed than most teams — shown by the fact they have conceded the second-lowest xG from fast breaks in the Premier League this season.
A big reason for that is the discipline of their midfield pivots — typically Elliot Anderson and Nicolas Dominguez — who tend to hold their positions rather than making late runs into the box. Data from Footovision shows that the average distance between Forest’s midfield and defensive lines in these games is just 11.6 metres — the lowest of any team against ‘Big Six’ opposition.
That compactness carries over to their out-of-possession structure too, except here Nuno Espirito Santo generally instructs his front four to push high, apply pressure and block passing lanes, while the midfield stays deeper to provide cover.
Below is a typical example against Manchester City, where the front four are engaged in disrupting their opponent’s build-up, yet there is a large space in behind with the midfield opting to stay back and provide additional protection. The distance between Forest’s attacking and midfield lines is the sixth-highest in the league, evidence of this defined split of roles: Forest’s attackers stay high, the rest of the team stay as compact as possible.
When City do manage to play through the initial press, Forest retreat swiftly into a low block, leaving only talisman Chris Wood ahead of the ball.
This tight defensive shape frustrates even the best sides, and they often resort to attempting low-quality chances from distance. The graphic below shows where ‘Big Six’ teams are shooting from against Forest compared to other opponents. Shots from outside the box are more common, particularly in the left channel where the figure of 13 per cent is significantly higher than six per cent elsewhere.
Plenty of left-sided attempts were on show when Manchester United came to the City Ground this week, with Alejandro Garnacho a repeat offender.
Forest’s narrow structure often encourages switches of play, and here Dalot successfully finds Garnacho with a crossfield pass. But as the second slide shows, by the time Garnacho manoeuvres himself into a shooting position, Forest have bodies back in position cutting off shooting angles, and the Argentinian winger fires a wayward effort into the stands.
This defensive discipline isn’t just reserved for the big occasions — it’s something Forest have improved across the board. The average distance of shots faced has increased each season, and the jump this campaign is particularly notable.
But Nottingham Forest’s impressive points haul hasn’t come solely from a disciplined defensive setup — they’ve also needed their forwards to deliver at the other end.
Before Forest’s 1-0 home win over Manchester City, Pep Guardiola described Callum Hudson-Odoi, Anthony Elanga, Wood, and Morgan Gibbs-White as “exceptional players.” That assessment proved prophetic when Hudson-Odoi netted a late winner for Forest.
Hudson-Odoi scores against Manchester City in March 2025 (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
Each of Forest’s attacking quartet brings something different to the table, but their skill sets complement each other effectively to provide a vital creative edge — particularly during attacking transitions, which have been a consistent source of goals against ‘Big Six’ opposition.
Although Forest often find themselves outnumbered when they break due to their defensive priorities, they consistently punch above their weight thanks to Elanga and Hudson-Odoi’s ball-carrying threat, Gibbs-White’s creativity, and Wood’s clinical finishing.
This counter-attacking prowess was on full display during Forest’s 1-0 win at Anfield earlier in the season — their first there since 1969. The winning goal began deep in their own half, where Forest regained possession before Gibbs-White picked out Elanga with a smart around-the-corner pass into the right channel.
Elanga then surged forward and delivered a pinpoint cross-field ball to Hudson-Odoi on the opposite flank, who cut inside and curled a composed finish beyond Alisson.
Trademark Callum Hudson-Odoi 🤌
Our winning goal at Anfield 😍 pic.twitter.com/bfYzP75kbI
— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) September 14, 2024
Hudson-Odoi’s clinical strike came from a low-percentage opportunity, and it would be remiss not to acknowledge the role of fortune in Forest’s season.
They’ve scored 50 goals from an expected goals tally of just 38 — the biggest over-performance in the division. While consistently taking the lead speaks to their quality, doing so as frequently as they have also enables them to execute their game plan more effectively, maintaining that compact shape rather than being forced to chase games.
Still, Forest have earned their share of good fortune this season. Their standout performances against the league’s most established sides have showcased the qualities that justify their lofty position in the table.
Nuno’s team may not play like a modern super club — but when facing teams that do, they’ve consistently found a way to thrive.
(Top photo: David Rogers/Getty Images)
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The wait is officially over. The FIFA World Cup has arrived.
For the first time ever, three nations—the United States, Mexico, and Canada are co-hosting the tournament. It is also the largest FIFA World Cup in history, expanding to a 48-team field. Squads from around the world have arrived in North America with one ultimate goal: capturing the iconic World Cup trophy.
Here’s the latest look at some of the most notable news surrounding the World Cup.
June 12:
Official Injury Update On Neymar
Brazilian star Neymar Jr. will officially miss Brazil’s opening match against Morocco on Saturday. Neymar was named to Brazil’s 2026 FIFA World Cup squad despite a calf injury, and now won’t be available early on. Manager Carlo Ancelotti said that “Neymar is working very hard to recover as quickly as possible.
“The expectation is that he will recover and rejoin the group next week.”
Google Doodle Has World Cup Fever
In case fans didn’t already have World Cup fever, they can open their web browser.
Google is officially ready for USA’s opener against Paraguay, as the home page features a custom, USA-themed Google Doodle.
The Doodle features red text with a blue outline, as well as a soccer ball along with an interchanging USA crest replacing the “O’s” in Google.
James Cordon Stretches With Christian Pulisic
James Corden joined Christian Pulisic and the United States men’s national team for a training session ahead of their World Cup opener against Paraguay.
After meeting with head coach Mauricio Pochettino and going through a film session with the players, Corden and Co. hit the pitch for practice, where he helped serve as a water boy.
Corden tried to help Pulisic stretch out his legs after practice before he was stopped by a member of the coaching staff. As Corden walked off, Pulisic sprayed him with a water bottle.
DR Congo Arrives to the World Cup in Style
The DR Congo men’s national team isn’t set to play until Wednesday, June 17, against Portugal in Group K, but they’ve already made a statement upon arrival in Houston, Texas.
The squad arrived in style, stepping off the plane in striking black, jaguar-inspired outfits that quickly turned heads. The bold look fits their nickname, Les Léopards, and sets the tone for their World Cup presence before they even face Portugal.
DR Congo may be heavy underdogs, but they’re already winning where it counts off the pitch, taking the fashion battle before kickoff.
Canada’s Jesse Marsch Takes Dig At USA
The Canadian men’s national team is set to face Bosnia and Herzegovina on Friday afternoon. Ahead of the match, head coach Jesse Marsch took a subtle jab at the United States men’s national team during his remarks on Thursday.
“In the U.S., we had to beg players to sing the national anthem,” Marsch said.
The United States conducted a months-long search for a new head coach in 2023, with Marsch emerging as the frontrunner and making it clear he wanted the job. Instead, they chose to rehire Gregg Berhalter, a decision that may have left Marsch with some lingering resentment.
Marsch’s subtle jab could take on added stakes if the United States and Canada meet during the FIFA World Cup. The two nations could potentially face off as early as the Round of 32 or the Round of 16.
June 11:
The pressure of competing in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is high, but that hasn’t stopped players from enjoying some downtime with their teammates. Norway star Erling Haaland was spotted at the Stanley Cup Final between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Carolina Hurricanes.
Haaland appeared to be enjoying himself as the Hurricanes secured a Game 5 victory, taking a 3-2 series lead over the Golden Knights. The Manchester City striker drew plenty of attention from fans in attendance as he took in the action from the stands.
The Norway star was seen celebrating in the stands before turning his attention back to international duty, with Norway set to face Iraq in Group 1 play on Tuesday, June 16.
Australia Coach Popovic Signs Extension
Australia coach Tony Popovic has signed a contract extension through early 2027 on the eve of his team’s World Cup opening match against Turkey on Saturday.
Football Australia said Friday that the 52-year-old Popovic’s deal now extends through the Asian Cup, which will take place in January and early February in Saudi Arabia.
The former Australia international was hired in September 2024 and led the Socceroos to qualification for the 48-team tournament.
“I’m proud to lead my country into a World Cup, but most importantly, I want to ensure that our team is fully prepared and focused on our group matches against Turkey, the United States, and Paraguay,” he said of Australia’s opponents in Group D.
Canada Captain Sidelined For Opening Match
Canada’s captain and star defender Alphonso Davies will miss Canada’s World Cup opener against Bosnia and Herzegovina. Davies’ status has been questionable due to an ACL tear and other injuries during the club season, which limited Davies to appearing in two of Canada’s last 21 games.
Davies is one of the co-host’s more valuable players in terms of talent and experience, including 58 appearances in nine years with the national team. However, Davies’ injury does not rule him out of the entire tournament. His injury update and restraint from the opening match serves as a caution to heal his injury as the group stage unfolds.
After playing for the Vancouver Whitecaps in the MLS, Davies transferred to Bayern Munich, where he’s played since 2019. Canada is set to play Bosnia and Herzegovina on June 12, followed by Qatar on June 18 and Switzerland on June 24.
Captain Wataru Endo Withdraws From World Cup
Just ahead of Japan’s opening match against the Netherlands on June 14, captain and midfielder Wataru Endo has withdrawn his name from Japan’s World Cup squad and paired it with his national team retirement, per his statement on X. Endo has been dealing with an ongoing ankle/foot injury since February.
Endo has played for the Japan national team for over a decade, where he made 73 appearances and scored four goals. As a veteran anchor in the midfield, Endo has also served as Japan’s captain since their previous World Cup in 2022, where they reached the Round of 16.
As for Endo’s professional career, he first played for Shanon Bellmare from 2010-15, followed by the Urawa Red Diamonds from 2016-19, VfB Stuttgart from 2019-23 and has played for Liverpool FC since 2023. With Liverpool, Endo played a prominent role in the team’s Carabao Cup victory in 2024.
With Endo out, Japan has officially called Borussia Mönchengladbach midfielder Shuto Machino to join the 26-man roster. Machino is entering his second World Cup and his fifth year with the Japan national team.
Marco Senesi Called Up To 26-Man Roster
Following the injury of defender Leonardo Balerdi, Argentina has officially called up defender Marcos Senesi to the 26-man roster. Argentina is set to open their World Cup campaign on June 16 against Algeria.
Senesi has been training prior in case of a last-minute call-up, and was named to the roster after Balerdi’s muscle injury was ruled out. Senesi has played professionally since 2016, playing for clubs like San Lorenzo, Feyenoord, AFC Bournemouth and is currently with Tottenham Hotspur.
Joining Senesi in the back are defenders Lisandro Martínez, Nicolás Otamendi and Cristian Romero.
In what’s likely to be Lionel Messi’s last World Cup, Argentina will look to repeat their historic 2022 World Cup win this tournament.
Tyler Adams, USA Celebrate Shocking Knicks’ W
Tyler Adams, United States’ midfielder, is a fan of the National Basketball Association’s New York Knicks. The Knicks are in the NBA Finals, on the eve of the start of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, so members of the United States’ squad gathered together to watch what turned out to be the largest NBA Finals comeback in history, with the Knicks coming out on top.
When New York won, the room erupted, with Adams especially going wild. And we know this because the reaction was caught on camera in the moment.
That couch is destroyed, but at least no one watching the game ended up as damaged as it did after Adams went climbing and kicking all over it! If the United States ends up having a major comeback or win in the World Cup, maybe keep the players away from any obstacles like that, though. Just to be safe.
Morocco Loses 2 Players To Injury Before World Cup
Morocco replaced two injured players in its World Cup squad ahead of an opening game against Brazil, including star winger Abde Ezzalzouli.
FIFA confirmed late Wednesday that former Barcelona player Ezzalzouli and Marseille defender Nayef Aguerd were withdrawn from the Morocco squad for the tournament.
Ezzalzouli helped Real Betis qualify for next season’s Champions League and was a potential breakout star at the World Cup. Aguerd was a cornerstone of Morocco’s historic semifinals team at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
They were replaced by Amine Sbai of French club Angers and Marwane Saadane, who plays in Saudi Arabia for Al Fateh.
Morocco opens against Brazil on Saturday at MetLife Stadium near New York, then plays Scotland on June 19 near Boston and finishes Group C against Haiti on June 24 in Atlanta.
Ezzalzouli injured his right knee in a warmup game against Norway last weekend, though initial tests suggested he could be retained in coach Mohamed Ouahbi’s squad to play in the knockout rounds.
Surprise World Cup Comeback For Austrian Midfielder
The last time Dejan Ljubicic played for Austria was nearly three years ago. Now a teammate’s injury has given him a surprise comeback at the World Cup.
Austria coach Ralf Rangnick called up Ljubicic late Wednesday to replace key midfielder Christoph Baumgartner, who injured his right thigh while warming up for a pre-World Cup friendly against Tunisia last week and needed surgery.
Ljubicic is set to join Austria at the team camp in Santa Barbara on Thursday, ahead of the team’s first game on Tuesday against Jordan. Austria also plays Argentina and Algeria in Group J.
He’s more of a defensive midfield option than Baumgartner, who scored 17 goals in all competitions for Leipzig in Germany last season and has remained in camp to support the team.
Ljubicic also plays in Germany on the Schalke team which secured promotion from the second division last month.
Ljubicic has nine games for Austria but none at a major tournament. His last appearance was in a friendly against Moldova in September 2023, and he wasn’t in the squad for any World Cup qualifiers.
CHICAGO — Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani was out of the lineup Friday against the White Sox after exiting the game before with discomfort in the back of his left knee.
Manager Dave Roberts said Ohtani had imaging done on the knee and showed “the normal wear and tear.”
“He feels fine-ish,” said Roberts, who hopes Ohtani will be back in the lineup this weekend. Ohtani remains in line to make his next pitching start on Wednesday against the Tampa Bay Rays at Dodger Stadium.
Especially at this point in the season, the Dodgers have incentive to play it safe with Ohtani’s recovery. Pushing him to return early and exacerbating the injury would be a larger blow to a team seeking its third straight World Series championship.
With Ohtani out, left fielder Alex Call was in the leadoff spot, and Santiago Espinal served as the designated hitter.
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With the largest World Cup field in the history of the tournament, 32 of the 48 teams will be fighting for a spot in the knockout stage.
66.6% of nations will advance out of the group stage this summer, which is a massive upgrade from 50% in past World Cups. Because of this, sportsbooks have adjusted with less favorable odds.
Prior to the start of the tournament, Spain, Argentina, Brazil, England, and Germany entered with the strongest odds to advance from the group stage, supported by recent major-tournament success and talent-rich rosters.
All five nations are heavily favored at -10000 to advance to the knockout round.
The Spaniards are the defending European Champions while the Argentinians are looking to win back-to-back titles. Germany has not made it out of the group stage in the last two World Cups, but has always been a perennial contender— having won four titles in its history. And then of course there’s Brazil, which has more titles than any country with five.
Now, after the conclusion of the first day of the World Cup, Mexico has joined the group at the top. El Tri has surged to -10000 to advance to the knockout stage after initially being just -1400. Mexico’s huge leap up the oddsboard is a direct result of its dominating 2-0 win over South Africa.
With that in mind, let’s dive into the odds for each team to advance to the knockout stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup as of June 12.
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Odds to Advance to Knockout Stage
Spain: -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10 total)
Argentina: -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10 total)
Brazil: -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10 total)
England: -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10 total)
Mexico: -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10 total)
Germany: -10000 (bet $10 to win $10.10 total)
Portugal: -5000 (bet $10 to win $10.20 total)
France: -5000 (bet $10 to win $10.20 total)
Belgium:-3500 (bet $10 to win $10.29 total)
South Korea: -2500 (bet $10 to win $10.40 total)
Switzerland: -1800 (bet $10 to win $10.56 total)
Netherlands: -1400 (bet $10 to win $10.71 total)
Morocco: -1000 (bet $10 to win $11 total)
Colombia: -1000 (bet $10 to win $11 total)
Uruguay: -1000 (bet $10 to win $11 total)
Canada: -1000 (bet $10 to win $11 total)
Ecuador: -900 (bet $10 to win $11.11 total)
Norway: -900 (bet $10 to win $11.11 total)
United States: -750 (bet $10 to win $11.33 total)
The U.S. men’s national team is currently -750 to advance from Group D (Photo by Omar Vega/USSF/Getty Images).
Croatia: -500 (bet $10 to win $12 total)
Austria: -500 (bet $10 to win $12 total)
Türkiye: -500 (bet $10 to win $12 total)
Ivory Coast: -500 (bet $10 to win $12 total)
Japan: -500 (bet $10 to win $12 total)
Egypt: -340 (bet $10 to win $12.94 total)
Algeria: -310 (bet $10 to win $13.23 total)
Scotland: -310 (bet $10 to win $13.23 total)
Senegal: -230 (bet $10 to win $14.35 total)
Sweden: -230 (bet $10 to win $1435 total)
Bosnia and Herzegovina: -220 (bet $10 to win $14.55 total)
Paraguay: -205 (bet $10 to win $14.88 total)
Iran: -200 (bet $10 to win $15 total)
Czechia: -165 (bet $10 to win $16.06 total)
Ghana: -140 (bet $10 to win $17.14 total)
Australia: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
DR Congo: +100 (bet $10 to win $20 total)
Raúl Jiménez helped propel Mexico to a 2-0 win over South Africa in the opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup (Photo by Yair Gonzalez/Jam Media/Getty Images).
Saudi Arabia: +105 (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
Tunisia: +140 (bet $10 to win $24 total)
New Zealand: +150 (bet $10 to win $25 total)
Uzbekistan: +180 (bet $10 to win $28 total)
Cape Verde: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Panama: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Qatar: +275 (bet $10 to win $37.50 total)
South Africa: +320 (bet $10 to win $42 total)
Jordan +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)
Iraq: +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total)
Haiti: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Curaçao: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
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