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How do Nottingham Forest keep beating the Premier League’s ‘Big Six’ with hardly any of the ball?

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How do Nottingham Forest keep beating the Premier League’s ‘Big Six’ with hardly any of the ball?

Have Nottingham Forest worked out a foolproof method of beating the Premier League’s ‘Big Six’?

Tuesday’s 1-0 victory against Manchester United took them to 18 points from a possible 30 in their head-to-head encounters with the Premier League’s historical and financial giants so far this season.

Of the division’s other 14 clubs, only Brighton and Hove Albion can match Forest’s rate of success against Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur this season, and crucially, those points have put Forest into an extremely strong position in the race for Champions League qualification.

But whereas Brighton often go toe-to-toe stylistically with their more illustrious opponents, the manner in which Forest have achieved their results is even more remarkable.

 

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Nuno Espirito Santo’s side rarely dominate the ball — their 32 per cent average possession is the lowest of any team in these matches. They also create relatively little — no side has a lower average xG in fixtures against the ‘Big Six’ — and they press less intensely than any other side in the division.

So how, despite seemingly lacking the hallmarks of a successful modern side, have they done it? Let’s break it down.


Nuno celebrates with Anthony Elanga after the victory against Manchester United in midweek (Michael Steele/Getty Images)

While Forest have admittedly created little in ‘Big Six’ encounters, they have been highly effective at stifling their opponents at the other end. Among all games involving ‘Big Six’ teams this season, Forest’s fixtures have the lowest average combined xG at just 2.3. In matches like these where opportunities are at a premium, the opening goal becomes all the more decisive — and Forest have developed a knack for striking first, scoring the opener in 24 of their 30 league matches, more than any other side in 2024-25.

Their ability to restrain opposition attacks stems from a combination of a compact shape, direct approach, and the speed of their transitions. The results are a record of just one goal conceded in five home games against the ‘Big Six’ so far this season, with just Chelsea to come.

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Chance creation from fast breaks is a key feature of many ‘Big Six’ teams — five of the six rank in the top six for xG from counter-attacks (Manchester City being the exception, with their more methodical build-up). But Forest rarely overcommit in possession and therefore find themselves less exposed than most teams — shown by the fact they have conceded the second-lowest xG from fast breaks in the Premier League this season.

A big reason for that is the discipline of their midfield pivots — typically Elliot Anderson and Nicolas Dominguez — who tend to hold their positions rather than making late runs into the box. Data from Footovision shows that the average distance between Forest’s midfield and defensive lines in these games is just 11.6 metres — the lowest of any team against ‘Big Six’ opposition.

That compactness carries over to their out-of-possession structure too, except here Nuno Espirito Santo generally instructs his front four to push high, apply pressure and block passing lanes, while the midfield stays deeper to provide cover.

Below is a typical example against Manchester City, where the front four are engaged in disrupting their opponent’s build-up, yet there is a large space in behind with the midfield opting to stay back and provide additional protection. The distance between Forest’s attacking and midfield lines is the sixth-highest in the league, evidence of this defined split of roles: Forest’s attackers stay high, the rest of the team stay as compact as possible.

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When City do manage to play through the initial press, Forest retreat swiftly into a low block, leaving only talisman Chris Wood ahead of the ball.

This tight defensive shape frustrates even the best sides, and they often resort to attempting low-quality chances from distance. The graphic below shows where ‘Big Six’ teams are shooting from against Forest compared to other opponents. Shots from outside the box are more common, particularly in the left channel where the figure of 13 per cent is significantly higher than six per cent elsewhere.

Plenty of left-sided attempts were on show when Manchester United came to the City Ground this week, with Alejandro Garnacho a repeat offender.

Forest’s narrow structure often encourages switches of play, and here Dalot successfully finds Garnacho with a crossfield pass. But as the second slide shows, by the time Garnacho manoeuvres himself into a shooting position, Forest have bodies back in position cutting off shooting angles, and the Argentinian winger fires a wayward effort into the stands.

This defensive discipline isn’t just reserved for the big occasions — it’s something Forest have improved across the board. The average distance of shots faced has increased each season, and the jump this campaign is particularly notable.

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But Nottingham Forest’s impressive points haul hasn’t come solely from a disciplined defensive setup — they’ve also needed their forwards to deliver at the other end.

Before Forest’s 1-0 home win over Manchester City, Pep Guardiola described Callum Hudson-Odoi, Anthony Elanga, Wood, and Morgan Gibbs-White as “exceptional players.” That assessment proved prophetic when Hudson-Odoi netted a late winner for Forest. 


Hudson-Odoi scores against Manchester City in March 2025 (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

Each of Forest’s attacking quartet brings something different to the table, but their skill sets complement each other effectively to provide a vital creative edge — particularly during attacking transitions, which have been a consistent source of goals against ‘Big Six’ opposition.

Although Forest often find themselves outnumbered when they break due to their defensive priorities, they consistently punch above their weight thanks to Elanga and Hudson-Odoi’s ball-carrying threat, Gibbs-White’s creativity, and Wood’s clinical finishing.

This counter-attacking prowess was on full display during Forest’s 1-0 win at Anfield earlier in the season — their first there since 1969. The winning goal began deep in their own half, where Forest regained possession before Gibbs-White picked out Elanga with a smart around-the-corner pass into the right channel.

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Elanga then surged forward and delivered a pinpoint cross-field ball to Hudson-Odoi on the opposite flank, who cut inside and curled a composed finish beyond Alisson.

Hudson-Odoi’s clinical strike came from a low-percentage opportunity, and it would be remiss not to acknowledge the role of fortune in Forest’s season.

They’ve scored 50 goals from an expected goals tally of just 38 — the biggest over-performance in the division. While consistently taking the lead speaks to their quality, doing so as frequently as they have also enables them to execute their game plan more effectively, maintaining that compact shape rather than being forced to chase games.

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Still, Forest have earned their share of good fortune this season. Their standout performances against the league’s most established sides have showcased the qualities that justify their lofty position in the table.

Nuno’s team may not play like a modern super club — but when facing teams that do, they’ve consistently found a way to thrive.

(Top photo: David Rogers/Getty Images)

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Sky vs Mercury betting preview: Why the over 166.5 looks like the play in this WNBA matchup

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Sky vs Mercury betting preview: Why the over 166.5 looks like the play in this WNBA matchup

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The WNBA season has been in session for about a week, so it is far too early to make assumptions about teams. That doesn’t mean we won’t make them; it’s just too early to really believe it. I lost my first WNBA bet this season, so I’m hoping to avenge that loss here as the Sky take on the Mercury.

The Chicago Sky are one of the most poorly run franchises in basketball. They have had some great names on their team and only one championship to show for it.

Phoenix Mercury forward DeWanna Bonner shoots over Indiana Fever guard Aerial Powers in the first half at PHX Arena. (Rick Scuteri/Imagn Images)

There really isn’t a clear indication of what is wrong with the franchise, but they’ve never been able to retain their talent. Aside from Kamilla Cardoso, I can’t name a player on this team that they’ve actually drafted. They just seem to get good players and then show them the door.

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Even though they’ve had questionable front office decisions, they seem to have put together a solid team for this season – something I didn’t expect before the season started.

They are 2-0, which is too early to really say they are a good team. I also want to reserve judgment until they face a team with a longer history than last year. The Portland Tempo played their first-ever game against the Sky, and Golden State was good last year, but still is in just their second season of existence.

The Phoenix Mercury are actually considered one of the best franchises in the league. I’m sure there are issues that people have reported, but for the most part, they have good facilities, and people want to play for their team. They made it all the way to the WNBA Finals last season before falling to the Las Vegas Aces. This year, they are looking to restart that journey and see if they can win the last game of the year.

Phoenix Mercury guard Kahleah Copper dribbles the ball in the second half at CareFirst Arena in Washington, D.C., on July 27, 2025. (Emily Faith Morgan-Imagn Images)

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It will need to come with some better play than they’ve shown through three games this year. They are just 1-2 for the year with a 0-1 home record. The lone win was a blowout victory over the Aces (a clear revenge game if we’ve ever seen one). Then they lost the next two games against Golden State and Minnesota. Losing to the Lynx wouldn’t be a problem, but they didn’t have Napheesa Collier, who still has an ankle injury.

I expect the Mercury to make some adjustments for this game. They haven’t looked very crisp to begin the year, but they’ve been strong on offense, averaging 87 points per game.

The Sky are going to keep relying on their offense to do just enough and their defense to lock in. The Sky do have an edge on the interior, so they can get buckets fairly easily down low. I like the over 166.5 in this game.

Chicago Sky guard Skylar Diggins chases the ball during the fourth quarter against the Golden State Valkyries at Chase Center in San Francisco, Calif., on May 13, 2026. (Bob Kupbens/Imagn Images)

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I also think it is worth betting on Kahleah Copper to go over her point total. Copper had two rough games before she broke out in the last game. Now she has the same sight lines and can attack the bigs from the Sky with her athleticism. Since going to Phoenix, she has scored 29, 7, 16, 25 and 28 points in five games against them.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024 

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Prep talk: Granada Hills coach Tom Harp goes for another boys’ volleyball title

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Prep talk: Granada Hills coach Tom Harp goes for another boys’ volleyball title

Tom Harp has been coaching volleyball at Granada Hills High for so long that few remember he won a City Section championship as a co-head football coach with Darryl Stroh in 1987.

In the 1990s, he turned exclusively to coaching boys’ and girls’ volleyball, winning a combined 15 City titles and making 28 finals appearances. The top-seeded Highlanders will try to deliver a seventh Open Division championship on Saturday when they face West Valley League rival Chatsworth in a 4 p.m. final at Birmingham.

The league rivals split their two West Valley matches, with each going five games. Chatsworth knocked off 17-time champion Palisades in the semifinals. MIT-bound Grant Chang is Chatsworth’s 6-foot-6 powerful outside hitter.

All-City volleyball player RJ Francisco of Granada Hills shows off his hitting skills against Chatsworth.

(Craig Weston)

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Granada Hills has RJ Francisco, who had 19 kills in a win over Chatsworth.

The Southern Section Division 1 final is Friday night, with Mira Costa taking on Loyola in a 7:30 p.m. match at Cerritos College.

Regional and state playoffs begin next week.

This is a daily look at the positive happenings in high school sports. To submit any news, please email eric.sondheimer@latimes.com.

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Cedric Alexander becomes new TNA X Division champion, crushing Leon Slater’s history-making attempt

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Cedric Alexander becomes new TNA X Division champion, crushing Leon Slater’s history-making attempt

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All eyes were on the Total Nonstop Action Wrestling (TNA) X Division Championship on Thursday night as Leon Slater looked to retain the title over Cedric Alexander and solidify himself as the longest-reigning X Division champion in the company’s history.

Slater knew a legacy was on the line as he looked to break a record set by Austin Aries. But he needed to pin Alexander twice in one match to retain the title. It was a steep mountain to climb as Alexander had been just as dangerous since he entered the company.

The match started off hot with Slater and Alexander trading blows to begin the match. But a quick-thinking Slater rolled up Alexander quickly for the first fall.

Cedric Alexander in the ring during NXT at the WWE Performance Center in Orlando, Fla., on Sept. 23, 2025. (Bradlee Rutledge/WWE)

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Alexander was able to go on offense from there. He hit a nasty German suplex on the outside of the ring. He continued to work on Slater’s tweaked neck. He later hit a Lumbar Check to tie the match at 1-1.

Slater went deep into his bag. He hit an avalanche Styles Clash, which could have kept anyone else down. However, Alexander kicked out. Alexander was able to counter Slater’s high-flying abilities just for a moment and knocked him back out of the ring.

Alexander sent Slater into the steel steps, leaving him busted open. Alexander declared that he would be the “greatest” X Division champion. One brainbuster later, Alexander tried to pin Slater, but couldn’t get him down.

Alexander hit a Lumbar Check again, but Slater kicked out. Slater mustered up the last ounce of energy. A tilt-a-whirl slam set Alexander up for a swanton 450. Slater missed and Alexander hit another Lumbar Check, and then again.

Leon Slater enters the arena during NXT at the WWE Performance Center in Orlando, Fla., on Jan. 6, 2026. (Craig Melvin/WWE)

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Alexander pinned Slater for the win, completely shocking the fans in Sacramento, California. It will be the first reign for Alexander and his first title of any kind in TNA.

Alexander is a reminder, at least for TNA, that “The System always wins.”

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Fabian Aichner appears

Fabian Aichner, formerly known as Giovanni Vinci, makes his way to the ring during WWE SmackDown at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, Calif., on Sept. 20, 2024. (WWE/Getty Images)

Moments before TNA went off the air, the lights went out in the Sacramento Memorial Auditorium. Emerging from the darkness was Fabian Aichner.

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Aichner stared down Alexander and appeared to name himself the next challenger for the X Division Championship. Aichner, known as Giovanni Vinci for much of his run in WWE, hadn’t really been seen or heard from in months since his departure from WWE.

Aichner wrestled under his real name for a stint in WWE before he came back as Vinci in June 22. He was with WWE until 2025. He was a two-time NXT tag team champion and an Evolve champion before it became a WWE brand.

Eric Young earns future shot at TNA World Championship

Eric Young outlasted nine other men in an over-the-top battle royal and earned a shot at Mike Santana’s TNA World Championship to start the show.

The match came down to him and Elijah after the latter was able to toss members of The System out of the ring while also avoiding Frankie Kazarian trying to get back into the match following his own elimination.

Young and Elijah came to blows on the apron, knowing that as soon as their feet touch the ground, they would be eliminated. Young grabbed onto Elijah’s hair to try to hang onto the moment. Elijah broke away with Young’s back turned to him. Elijah, however, didn’t account for his wide stance.

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The TNA original kicked Elijah in the groin and pushed him down to the ground. Young won the match and received a shot to win the TNA World Championship in the future.

He also made clear that Santana was next on his list of people to wipe out as he did to Joe Hendry, EC3 and Ricky Sosa in weeks past.

“Mike Santana, you’re gone next,” he declared.

Mike Santana learns his next opponent

Mike Santana stands in the ring during NXT at the WWE Performance Center in Orlando, Fla., on Sept. 30, 2025. (Kevin Sabitus/WWE)

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Mike Santana came out to address the crowd and praised Young for his efforts to help build TNA from the ground up.

“You better be coming with something different because while you may be someone who helped build this place, when it comes to the new era of TNA on AMC, I’m the guy. I’m the man. I’m the one who holds down the fort week after week as your TNA world champion.”

While Young might have earned a title shot, Daria Rae came out and revealed to the crowd that Steve Maclin was cleared to return to action following an injury at the hands of Santana.

Maclin will get a shot at Santana’s TNA World Championship next week on “Impact.”

Santino Marella also came out during the segment after he was “suspended.” He revealed that Indi Harwell re-signed with TNA.

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Lei Ying Lee, Xia Brookside rivalry heats up

Xia Brookside attends the “Freelance” screening at Regal Waterford Lakes in Orlando, Fla., on Oct. 24, 2023. (Jose Devillegas/Getty Images)

Lei Ying Lee brought the TNA Knockouts Championship back home last week with a win over Arianna Grace. She addressed the crowd before being interrupted by her former best friend, Xia Brookside.

In all black, Brookside claimed she was already in Lei’s head.

“You’re such a fraud. I’ve destroyed you mentally, I’ve destroyed you emotionally, I’ve destroyed you physically, and that title will be around my waist.”

Both competitors tossed expletives at each other before the segment was over. But Brookside made clear that she had her eyes on the title.

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AJ Francis prevails over KC Navarro

A.J. Francis told Fox News Digital before the SacTown Street Fight on “Impact” that he was going to bring the pain to Navarro.

While wearing “Show Stealer” across his back, Francis did just that. Francis took some punishment from Navarro – a few shots from a baseball bat and a drop kick with a trash can.

Francis was able to turn the tide for a few moments, using the baseball bat to his advantage. But Navarro dug deep. He aligned six chairs in the ring, hoping to splash Francis through it. Instead, Francis countered and attempted an avalanche Down Payment. Somehow, Navarro countered with a cutter as both men crashed through the sea of chairs.

It looked like it could’ve been it. Navarro went for the pin, but only got a two count.

Francis turned on the heat from there. He got ahold of Navarro and hit a Down Payment through tables lined up on the outside of the ring.

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He rolled Navarro back into the ring and picked up the pinfall victory.

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“Impact” match results

  • Eric Young wins the 10-man battle royal to earn a shot at the TNA World Championship.
  • A.J. Francis def. KC Navarro in a SacTown Street Fight.
  • Rosemary and Allie def. Veronica Crawford and Mila Moore
  • Cedric Alexander def. Leon Slater to win the X Division Championship.

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