When assessing NFL MVP candidates one year ago, I lamented the dearth of candidates producing at levels high enough for consideration.

There’s no such problem as the 2024 MVP race enters its final stages.

Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Saquon Barkley are superstar talents whose conventional and/or advanced stats match historic standards for MVP consideration.

Jackson was my favorite when assessing the situation one month ago, partly because his production was allowing Baltimore to win despite terrible support from the Ravens’ defense and special teams. The picture looks different now. Allen and Burrow have surged. Barkley, having topped 2,000 yards rushing, fits into a different category as a non-quarterback. The best case for him goes well beyond statistics.

We’ll start with the quarterbacks because they are obviously most valuable. We’ll finish with the special case for Barkley, who has helped transform the most pass-oriented organization of the past quarter-century.

The best MVP candidates, in my view, are high-producing, dynamic QBs for teams that win despite lackluster support from their defenses and special teams. These are the ultimate win-because-of quarterbacks.

Patrick Mahomes has set the standard. He led the 2022 Kansas City Chiefs to Super Bowl glory after the team finished 29th in combined expected points added (EPA) on defense/special teams. He did this even though his defense/special teams failed to come alive in the playoffs the way Peyton Manning’s 2006 Super Bowl-winning Indianapolis Colts did after ranking 32nd in the regular season (in that case, Bob Sanders’ return to the defense helped Indy win it all despite Manning tossing three touchdown passes with seven interceptions in the postseason).

Mahomes proved to be the ultimate MVP. His case this season is tougher to make in the absence of elite statistical production, so he’s not part of this discussion, which focuses on betting favorites for the award (imagine if someone had told you before the season that Kansas City would take a 15-1 record into Week 18 without Mahomes — the preseason favorite at +500 — registering on the MVP radar).

Press play or drag the slider on the chart below to see how leading MVP candidates’ production and betting odds have shifted over the season, week by week. Burrow was far out of contention, as distant as +25000 three weeks ago and +15000 one week ago, until jumping to +2000 after Week 17’s overtime win over the Denver Broncos.

MVP voting closes before playoff results are known, so we can’t make a full evaluation. We do not even know whether Burrow’s 8-8 Cincinnati Bengals (29th in EPA on defense/special teams) will finish with a winning record, let alone reach the postseason. Jackson’s Ravens are 11-5 despite ranking 24th in EPA on defense/special teams, while Allen’s Buffalo Bills are 13-3 while ranking 15th in those phases that usually are critical for winning. Allen is expected to sit most of the Bills’ finale, while Burrow and Jackson could add to their resumes.

Allen overtook Jackson as the betting favorite after a Week 11 to 15 stretch that saw Buffalo beat Kansas City, put up 42 points on the Los Angeles Rams and win at Detroit, 48-42. Jackson’s Ravens lost in Weeks 11 and 13 before taking off Week 14 for their bye.

That stretch is fresher and more relevant to the current discussion than a Week 4 to 5 run featuring Baltimore’s victories over Buffalo (35-10) and Cincinnati (41-38). We’ll take the full season into account here.

As fans debate the MVP merits of their favorite players, let’s take a quick look at basic stats for Jackson, Allen and Burrow before evaluating them through other contextual lenses.

Establishing basic MVP credentials for the leading QB candidates

Ten quarterbacks have combined to win 21 MVPs since 2000.

Through 16 games, those QBs averaged 4,373 yards passing with 37 touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 108.8 passer rating during their MVP seasons, per TruMedia.

They averaged 40 total touchdowns with 11 turnovers.

They averaged 165.9 total EPA on pass plays and rushes (0.27 per play), not counting kneeldowns.

Jackson, Allen and Burrow measure up to those standards except for Burrow’s 116.7 total EPA, which would rank 19th among those 21 MVP seasons, just behind 2021 Aaron Rodgers and ahead of 2003 Steve McNair. The lowest since 2000, by far, belonged to Jackson in 2023. His 51.5 EPA through 16 games was less than half the 16-game totals for the next-lowest MVP since 2000 (2015 Cam Newton).

Assessing MVP-caliber performance frequency: Advantage, Jackson?

As noted, those 10 quarterbacks with 21 MVP seasons since 2000 averaged 0.27 EPA per play when kneeldowns are excluded.

The table below stacks Jackson, Allen and Burrow by their best to worst EPA per play for each of their 16 starts this season.

Jackson met the MVP threshold of +0.27 EPA per play 11 times, compared to eight times for Allen and four for Burrow. Jackson also had the fewest games with negative EPA per play.

Jackson accounts for seven of the top 14 single-game figures.

Median ranks for their 48 single-game figures: 20th for Jackson, 23rd for Allen, 30th for Burrow.

This is one way to get a feel for consistency.

The Ravens have gone 11-0 when Jackson has produced at the historic MVP level, but 0-5 when he did not.

The splits are 7-1 and 6-2 for Allen, compared to 2-2 and 6-6 for Burrow.

This suggests Baltimore has needed MVP production from its quarterback to win.

Burrow has elite receiving weapons in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Allen has a strong offensive line. Jackson has a dominant running back in Derrick Henry. These are factors worth noting, but I don’t see them as significant enough to tip the balance one way or another.

Trading places: Burrow overtakes Jackson atop Betrayal Index, but wins less frequently

If the best MVP candidates are indeed dynamic quarterbacks whose elite production helps their teams overcome weak defense/special teams to win, refreshing the Betrayal Index can help.

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Burrow and Jackson have swapped places at the top since our check-in after Week 10, but Jackson has a much better record (11-5, compared to 8-8 for Burrow), which factors into the MVP equation. Being good enough on offense to overcome the other components and win is the goal. Sometimes, that’s unrealistic, but no MVP quarterback’s team has had worse than an 11-5 record from a win percentage standpoint.

The table below shows all 32 current quarterbacks with at least eight starts this season. It stacks them by the difference between where these players rank among each other in QB EPA per start, and where their teams rank in defense/special teams EPA during each QB’s starts. Dallas has two players on the chart. Cleveland has none.

High-producing QBs with weak defenses/special teams rise to the top. These are the most “betrayed” quarterbacks. Burrow and Jackson lead the way.

The San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy and the Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa are close behind Burrow and Jackson, something for their teams to consider when making full-season evaluations.

QBs appearing in the middle of the Betrayal Index rank about the same in QB EPA and team defense/special teams EPA, whether good or bad. That’s how Jordan Love (good QB EPA, good team defense/special teams EPA) and Gardner Minshew II (bad, bad) appear in close proximity.

Low-producing QBs with strong defenses/special teams fall to the bottom. It’s striking to see the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud lagging to such a degree.

Taking this another step with our QB MVP frontrunners, the table below shows just how many games Jackson, Allen and Burrow have played with strong, average and weak support from their defenses/special teams.

Burrow (five) and Allen (two) have combined to play seven games with worse defense/special teams support than the Ravens’ worst game, but Jackson has had more overall games with below-average support. Buffalo’s offense has started a league-high 28 drives in opponent territory. The figure is 19 for the Bengals and 14 for Baltimore. That helps explain why Allen’s Bills average more points per drive but less EPA per drive.

Jackson is 6-3 when the Ravens’ combined EPA on defense/special teams was -7.0 or worse. Allen is 3-2 in those games. Burrow lags at 1-6, including 1-3 in games similar to the ones Jackson played in.

Why Barkley should be considered

Anyone arguing for a running back to win MVP risks getting laughed out of Math Club.

The statistical value associated with Barkley’s 2,005-yard rushing season (13 touchdowns, 5.8 yards per carry) doesn’t compare to the value quarterbacks contribute mostly through passing.

Barkley’s 46.9 EPA on rushes and receptions ranks second to the Detroit Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs (54.2) among running backs this season, which isn’t very exciting.

Only eight of the 35 running backs with at least 500 yards on the ground this season have produced positive EPA on even half of their rushes. Barkley is at 49 percent, meaning most of his runs actually cost the team value.

But there’s a case to be made that Barkley saved the Philadelphia Eagles this season by driving a philosophical shift that would not have occurred without him.

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For decades, the organization has embraced analytics, which have affirmed that passing is the key to winning. Philly has hired only offensive-minded coaches over the past 25 years: Andy Reid, Chip Kelly, Doug Pederson and now Nick Sirianni. Most of them were oriented toward the pass.

From 2000 through last season, the Eagles ranked No. 1 on the Cook Index, which measures how frequently teams pass in generally neutral situations: early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before score differential and time remaining exert more influence on play calling. They were eighth on the Cook Index last season — naturally inclined to pass first.

Philly has a highly paid quarterback in Jalen Hurts and two highly paid elite receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The offensive coordinator the Eagles hired before this season, Kellen Moore, was known primarily as a pass-oriented play caller.

But this team, with this dual-threat quarterback and this offensive line, appears much better when it runs the ball enough to reduce exposure to the dropback passing game. Did it take signing a running back of Barkley’s pedigree, ability and earning power for the Eagles to lean into the identity Hurts and the offense needed to embrace to be their best selves? An MVP case for Barkley could make that point.

The Eagles rank 25th on the Cook Index this season. Hurts is attempting about seven fewer passes per game. There’s a calm and consistency to the team’s offensive operation. Barkley appears to be the leading reason for that. He is also the ninth player to surpass 2,000 yards rushing, and he didn’t need a 17th game to get there (O.J. Simpson was the only runner to do it in a 14-game season).

The odds are against Barkley winning the award. Jackson, Allen and Burrow have provided more verifiable value to their teams. But it’s plausible to say Barkley’s contributions go beyond the impressive numbers.

Voters have no shortage of viable candidates this season.

(Photo of Lamar Jackson, right, and Josh Allen: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)

NFL Hall of Famer Brett Favre expressed confusion and skepticism about the details related to the deadly New Year’s Day incidents in New Orleans and Las Vegas.

In an X post Friday, Favre asked followers “what’s going on” with the terror attack in New Orleans that killed 14 and the Cybertruck bombing outside Trump Tower in Las Vegas that killed one.

“What’s going on with the New Orleans and Trump Hotel story? A lot of information and hard to sift through to see what’s real!” Favre wrote. 

Many of Favre’s followers responded, sharing similar skepticism. 

“Whatever the FBI says, believe the opposite!” one user wrote. 

Another user responded, advising Favre and others to “ignore the media.” 

“None of it. Take in the event. Ignore the media,” the user wrote. 

More details about the two attacks have emerged in recent days.

Shamsud-Din Jabbar, the man who plowed a rented pickup truck into New Year’s revelers on New Orleans’ Bourbon Street Wednesday, and Matthew Livelsberger, the man eyed in the explosion of a Tesla Cybertruck outside the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas hours later, were both Army soldiers who served at Fort Liberty and deployed to Aghanistan in 2009, Fox News Digital previously reported. 

Las Vegas, Clark County Sheriff Kevin McMahill said that while both men served in Afghanistan in 2009, any potential ties there were still under investigation

“We don’t have any evidence that they were in the same province in Afghanistan, the same location or the same unit,” McMahill said. “Again, something else that remains under investigation.”

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A defense official told Fox News there was no evidence based on their military service that the attacks were related. While both men served at Fort Liberty, formerly Fort Bragg, they were there at different times. The North Carolina base is home to more than 50,000 service members. 

The FBI released surveillance images of the New Orleans attack that show Jabbar just about an hour before he allegedly sped a rented Ford pickup through a crowd of Bourbon Street revelers in an attack officials say was inspired by the Islamic State. 

More than 30 others were injured. Despite previously investigating the possibility of accomplices in the attack, the FBI said Thursday the bureau is confident Jabbar acted alone. 

The FBI recovered a black ISIS flag from Jabbar’s rented pickup truck that was used for the attack. 

“This investigation is only a little more than 24 hours old, and we have no indication at this point that anyone else was involved in this attack other than Shamsud-Din Bahar Jabbar,” FBI Deputy Assistant Director Christopher Raia of the counterterrorism division at FBI headquarters said Thursday. 

“The FBI is surging people and assets to this area from across the region and across the nation. Special agents in field offices across the country are assisting with potential aspects of this investigation and following up on leads. Additional teams of special agents, professional staff and victim specialists continue to arrive to provide more investigative power and assistance to the victims and their families.” 

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Player development has become the favorite term to describe what parents and others are seeking when children participate in sports. And, if you want an example of someone who is truly making the most of player development, that would be 6-foot-6, 230-pound senior Peyton White of Crespi.

He has evolved from someone who was strictly a post player when he entered high school to someone throwing down dunks as he drives past defenders as a senior. He had three dunks Friday, two off drives, while scoring 26 points in Crespi’s 65-53 victory over Washington Prep at Inglewood High, the Celts’ seventh consecutive win.

White is still posting up, still rebounding, but his improvement as a ball handler and shooter, coupled with his physicality, allows him to create mismatches that should help him when he leaves in the fall for Nevada.

“I feel I put a lot of work in and am showing it,” he said.

Crespi (14-3) beat a Washington Prep team that had won its first three games since a group of transfers became eligible on Dec. 27. The Generals are a definite City Section Open Division title contender aided by three transfers from defending champion King/Drew. Donald Thompson Jr., an All-City guard for King/Drew last season, had 18 points.

Isaiah Barnes supported White by scoring 12 of his 17 points in the fourth quarter. Washington Prep closed to within 38-36 of the Celts in the second half.

Crespi begins Mission League play next week, and White’s physicality will be something opponents will have to deal with.

Inglewood 87, Narbonne 39: Jason Crowe Jr. scored 37 points in three quarters for Inglewood.

San Diego 74, King/Drew 63: Joshan Webster had 26 points for King/Drew.

Santa Margarita 73, St. Pius X-St. Matthias 42: Kaiden Bailey finished with 23 points for the 13-3 Eagles.

St. John Bosco 61, Utah Layton Christian 32: Chris Komin scored 17 points, Christian Collins had 14 points and 10 rebounds and Max Ellis added 14 points for the Braves.

Eastvale Roosevelt 77, Phoenix Sandra Day O’Connor 51: Brayden Burries had 24 points and 10 rebounds and Issac Williamson added 21 points for Roosevelt.

Brentwood 72, Viewpoint 66: Freshman Shalen Sheppard and AJ Okoh each scored 14 points for Brentwood in a Gold Coast League game. Aeneas Grullon scored 32 points for Viewpoint.

Saugus 61, Palisades 48: Bryce Mejia led Saugus with 18 points.

St. Francis 50, Bishop O’Dowd 41: DeLan Grant had 17 points for St. Francis.

St. Anthony 83, Wesley Chapel (Fla.) Wiregrass 81: Aman Haynes had 36 points for St. Anthony.

Sherman Oaks Notre Dame 84, Henderson (Nev.) Coronado 40: Zachary White had 22 points and Tyran Stokes 17 for the Knights.