Texas
‘They absolutely hate our guts’: The weird, wonderful games that define Texas-Arkansas
At SEC media days in July, Steve Sarkisian inadvertently described a good portion of college football in a single line. “I feel like when you go to Arkansas,” the Texas Longhorns coach said, “I almost at times feel like they hate Texas more than they like themselves. That’s a real rivalry.”
Later that week, Arkansas Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman confirmed Sarkisian’s take. “We hadn’t played Texas for years,” he said, “and when we played them a couple of years back, it was the most excited our fan base has been in a while. So I would say he’s probably right.”
Houston Nutt can testify. Nutt grew up in Little Rock, Arkansas. He idolized legendary Arkansas coach Frank Broyles and watched him battle Darrell Royal and the Longhorns before playing for the Razorbacks himself.
“When Texas came to play Arkansas, it was this huge, huge thing,” he told ESPN in 2019. “I remember being taught at the age of 6 outside War Memorial Stadium [in Little Rock] how to do the Hook ‘Em Horns Down sign.”
Nutt beat the Horns as the Hogs’ coach, a 27-6 win in the 2000 Cotton Bowl, Arkansas’ first bowl win since 1985. He turned around, and threw the Horns Down to the Arkansas fans.
“It was a sea of red, and they were mostly doing the Hook ‘Em Horns Down,” Nutt said. “What did I do? I can’t help it. I’m right there with ’em.”
Conference realignment has broken countless rivalries through the years. There are no Oklahoma-Oklahoma State games on the schedule; Missouri and Kansas haven’t played since 2011; Cal has traded playing UCLA for playing NC State; Oregon-Oregon State and Washington-Washington State have been moved from the traditional bottom of the schedule to the top; Pitt and West Virginia play only sporadically, as do Oklahoma and Nebraska. But in the “thank God for small favors” department, this latest round of realignment at least reignited a few rivalries to replace the further ones we lost. Longtime Big 8 and Big 12 rivals Oklahoma and Missouri played this past Saturday for the first time in 13 years (and celebrated the occasion with a particularly wacky finish), and on Nov. 30 not only will we get our first Texas vs. Texas A&M game since 2011 but it also might have enormous College Football Playoff stakes.
While we wait for Aggies-Horns, however, we get a rivalry game that, for quite a while, outshined Texas-A&M and defined Southwest Conference football. On Saturday, Texas and Arkansas will play for just the fourth time in 20 years and will play as conference rivals for the first time in 33. Most rivalries fit into certain parameters — the dueling heavyweights that split the wins over time, the heavyweight against the aspirant that measures itself by how well it’s faring against the big dog, etc. — but over the course of a few decades, Arkansas-Texas fit into multiple categories. Arkansas was the aggrieved and aspirant underdog for much of the series, but for much of the 1960s, when Royal and Broyles were at the top of their respective games, this was the biggest game in college football. Whichever flavor it takes on at a given time, this game remains spicy.
Texas is 8-1 and listed as a favorite by more than two touchdowns Saturday, while Arkansas is 5-4, having handed Tennessee its only loss of the season but suffered two blowout losses in its past four games. The Razorbacks are volatile underdogs; the Longhorns are SEC title favorites; and, for at least a little while Saturday, Razorback Stadium will be an absolute cauldron. To prepare ourselves, let’s look back at 10 of the most noteworthy games in this revived rivalry’s history.
No. 3 Texas 20, No. 14 Arkansas 0 (1946)
“Steers Trounce Tough Porkers For 5th Victory” was the headline in the Austin American. At 3-0-1, Arkansas was off to its best start in 13 years, and for the first time these teams met as mutually ranked foes. But Texas, also unbeaten and the winner of three of the past four Southwest Conference (SWC) crowns, handled both the moment and the muggy conditions better. Future pro and college football Hall of Famer Bobby Layne threw a pair of touchdown passes — one to Hub Bechtol for 50 yards, one to Jim Canady for 47 — and the Longhorns had scored all their points by halftime. This was a pretty common result: Aside from a mid-1930s run in which Texas lost its way as a program and Arkansas won five of six games between them, UT dominated the early stages of this rivalry, winning 29 of the first 35 battles. It’s been a lot closer since then.
This was the high-water mark for the “Steers,” by the way, as they would fall via road upset to both Rice and TCU, handing Arkansas only its second SWC title. The Razorbacks would head to Dallas, where they endured a 0-0 tie with LSU in the Cotton Bowl.
No. 3 Texas 13, No. 12 Arkansas 12 (1959)
After falling apart under Edwin Price in the mid-1950s, Texas righted the ship by hiring Royal, a former Oklahoma Sooner, to lead the program in 1957. In 1959 the Longhorns embarked on a run of nine top-10 finishes and two national titles in 14 years. Royal won his first two games against Arkansas by a combined 41-6, but second-year head coach Broyles also had things up and running by 1959. The Razorbacks would enjoy eight top-10 finishes in 11 years from 1959 to 1969; in this tight loss, they served notice as to what was coming.
As with much of 1950s college football, this game was decided by disasters. Both teams lost four fumbles; Arkansas recovered a loose ball to set up its first touchdown, but, with Texas trailing 12-7 in the third quarter, another future Hall of Famer, Lance Alworth, muffed a punt, which set up a game-winning touchdown pass from Bart Shirley to Jack Collins. Between 1959 and 1969, eight of 11 Steers-Porkers games would be decided by five or fewer points.
No. 8 Arkansas 14, No. 1 Texas 13 (1964)
Texas won its first national title under Royal in 1963; the Longhorns shined in big games that season, beating No. 1 Oklahoma and No. 2 Navy by a combined 56-13, but they managed only a 17-13 win over Arkansas in Fayetteville. They advanced their winning streak to 15 games early in 1964, but Broyles was building a title-worthy squad of his own by then.
For the third time in four years, this was a matchup of top-10 teams. The most famous members of the 1964 Razorbacks were future Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and future college and NFL title winner Jimmy Johnson, but future Arkansas coach Ken Hatfield made the difference in this one. His 81-yard punt return gave Arkansas a 7-0 halftime lead, and after Texas tied the score in the fourth quarter, Fred Marshall found Bobby Crockett for a 34-yard touchdown to put Arkansas ahead once more. With about a minute left, Ernie Koy scored on a 1-yard plunge; Royal, entirely uninterested in a tie, elected to go for two points and the win, but a pass attempt came up short. Texas’ winning streak was over, and Arkansas would go on to finish 11-0 and score a share of its first national title.
No. 3 Arkansas 27, No. 1 Texas 24 (1965)
By October 1965, Arkansas had extended its winning streak to 16 games, winning its first four games of 1965 by a combined 114-33. But Texas had leapfrogged the Razorbacks to get back to No. 1, thanks in part to a 19-0 win over Oklahoma. That put the chip firmly back on Arkansas’ shoulder.
With the extra dose of motivation — plus, perhaps, some divine intervention: Fayetteville’s First Baptist Church famously posted “Football is only a game, eternal things are spiritual. Nevertheless, beat Texas” that week — Arkansas raced to an early lead thanks to a pair of Phil Harris fumbles. Martine Bercher recovered the first one in the end zone, then Tommy Trantham took another one 77 yards for a score.
Arkansas went up 20-0 after a Jon Brittenum-to-Bobby Crockett touchdown, but Texas charged back. It was 20-11 by halftime, and David Conway’s 34-yard field goal made it 24-20 Longhorns with just five minutes left. Brittenum scored from a yard out with 1:32 remaining, though, and Arkansas had its second of three straight wins in the series.
The Hogs would run their overall winning streak to 22 before falling to LSU 14-7 in the Cotton Bowl.
No. 1 Texas 15, No. 2 Arkansas 14 (1969)
Don’t you love it when a plan comes together? Texas usually played Oklahoma and Arkansas back-to-back in early October, but Roone Arledge, the innovative head of ABC Sports, had an idea in the offseason. Texas had finished 1968 as the hottest team in the country, winning its last nine games and averaging 37 points per game with offensive coordinator Emory Bellard’s innovative wishbone scheme. Arkansas, meanwhile, finished 10-1 with only a 39-29 loss at Texas. The Longhorns and Razorbacks finished third and sixth, respectively, in the AP poll and headed into 1969, college football’s centennial season, as obvious national title contenders.
According to Terry Frei’s “Horns, Hogs, and Nixon’s Coming,” ABC publicist (and future ESPN analyst) Beano Cook pored over the schedules and determined that Arkansas, Texas and Penn State all had good chances of going unbeaten. “My recommendation involved Penn State and Arkansas finishing the regular season with perfect records and then playing for the national title,” Cook told Frei. “I said we should move Texas-Arkansas to December 6, because I thought Texas might be undefeated then, too.” Arledge told the coaches that former Oklahoma coach and politician Bud Wilkinson could make sure that new President Richard Nixon was likely to attend the game as well. It was going to be a spectacle unlike anything college football had seen.
Sure enough, the Longhorns and Razorbacks both reached December unbeaten (as did Penn State), and Nixon was there in the stands for a game that somehow lived up to all expectations.
With Texas’ offense discombobulated early — the Horns turned the ball over on their first two drives — Arkansas scored on a short Bill Burnett run and, early in the third quarter, a 29-yard catch by star receiver Chuck Dicus. Texas quarterback James Street scored on the first play of the fourth quarter, then scored on a 2-point conversion as well. (Royal decided before the game that he once again wanted to avoid a tie at all costs.)
With the score 14-8, Arkansas drove the length of the field and was on the verge of putting the game away until Danny Lester picked off a Bill Montgomery pass in the end zone. Then came “Right 53 Veer Pass”: On a fourth-and-3 near midfield, Street threw a bomb to Cotton Speyrer for 44 yards.
#TBT – 1969: Texas defeats Arkansas 15-14.#ThisIsTexas #HookEm pic.twitter.com/xoqn5cbhFm
— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) October 17, 2019
Two plays later, Texas went ahead with a short Jim Bertelsen touchdown. Arkansas drove near field goal range in the final seconds, but Tom Campbell picked off Montgomery to ice the game, and Nixon declared Texas the national champion in the locker room after the game. (This rather annoyed Penn State’s Joe Paterno, whose team was also unbeaten.)
College football’s explosion as a television product can be ascribed to countless things, but ABC’s innovative approach to broadcasting, followed by a couple of all-time classics — this and 1971 Oklahoma-Nebraska, to name two — in short succession, certainly didn’t hurt.
No. 1 Texas 42, No. 4 Arkansas 7 (1970)
The sequel often fails to live up to the billing. Almost exactly a year after the 1969 classic, Texas was riding a 29-game winning streak, while 9-1 Arkansas was ranked fourth in the AP poll and looking for revenge on national television. It didn’t quite work out.
Texas rushed for 464 yards — Bertelsen and Steve Worster combined for 315 on their own, with five of the Longhorns’ six touchdowns — and picked off Montgomery three times. After a goal-line stand by the Longhorns’ defense prevented Arkansas from tying the score early on, the floodgates opened.
The tide had again turned in the rivalry. Arkansas would finally get some measure of revenge the next year with a win in Little Rock, but after winning four of seven over the Horns between 1960-66, the Hogs won only once between 1966-79.
No. 8 Texas 28, No. 3 Arkansas 21 (1978)
A generation ended when both Royal and Broyles retired after matching 5-5-1 seasons in 1976. They both ended up hiring their younger replacements — 38-year old Fred Akers at UT, 40-year old Lou Holtz at Arkansas — as their schools’ respective athletic directors.
Both led immediate rebounds. Holtz won 30 games, Akers won 29, and both schools finished in the AP top 12 each year from 1977 to 1979. In 1978, Akers’ Longhorns played a unique role, too: spoiler. They welcomed unbeaten Arkansas to Austin and ended the Hogs’ 11-game winning streak. Two Randy McEachern touchdown passes in the final minute of the first half turned a tie into a 20-7 Texas lead, and when Arkansas charged back to take the lead, Johnny “Lam” Jones caught McEachern’s third TD pass, and Johnnie Johnson picked off one pass and broke up another on a fourth down to seal the win. This was the first of four straight upsets in the series, with the lower-ranked team winning every year from 1978 to 1981. My favorite rivalries are the ones that make no sense.
Arkansas 42, No. 1 Texas 11 (1981)
And now for maybe the most shocking result in the history of the rivalry. Akers’ Longhorns entered the 1981 game No. 1 in the country, having just blown out Barry Switzer’s Oklahoma 34-14 to move to 4-0. Arkansas, meanwhile, had fallen out of the AP rankings two weeks earlier after a road loss to an awful TCU team that would finish 2-7-2. Surely a blowout was in store, right?
This was indeed a blowout, but not the one anyone expected. Two fumbles and a safety from an airmailed punt snap gave Arkansas a quick 15-0 lead, and the Longhorns never got closer. The Hogs led 25-3 at halftime and 39-3 after three quarters; Texas actually outgained the home team 421-323, but seven turnovers sabotaged all efforts. A turnaround in the series? Not so much. The last two Akers-Holtz battles ended up a combined 64-10 in favor of the team in burnt orange. But this one was an awfully big thumb in the eye, and it would prevent the Horns from winning a national title — they ended up second in the polls behind Clemson.
Arkansas 14, Texas 13 (1991)
“Ain’t no rematch. Best thing of all, ain’t gonna be no rematch.” That’s Arkansas head coach Jack Crowe, celebrating a Hogs win in the final SWC matchup between the two rivals. He had just weathered one of the silliest games in the series to secure permanent (well, permanent-ish) bragging rights. Arkansas led 14-0 at halftime after touchdowns from Ron Dickerson Jr. and Kerwin Price, but a 14-yard Phil Brown touchdown made it 14-7 heading into the fourth quarter, and a 55-yard burst from Brown tied the score. Or at least, it should have: The Longhorns missed the PAT, then missed a 39-yard field goal attempt with 3:45 left.
The teams weren’t particularly memorable, even if the game was. Crowe’s Razorbacks went 6-6 in their last season in the SWC, while David McWilliams’ fifth and final Texas team went 5-6. The teams had weathered ups and downs, splitting the previous six meetings and producing zero top-10 finishes from 1984 to 1991 as the SWC wobbled through controversies and discontent. In 1990, the SEC announced it was adding Arkansas as part of an expansion to 10 teams; the plan had originally included adding not only the Hogs but also Texas and Texas A&M, but the state legislature intervened, and only Arkansas was on its way out the door. So was Crowe: Broyles fired him (and then tried to get away with announcing he’d resigned) after Arkansas began its SEC tenure with a 10-3 loss to The Citadel.
No. 7 Texas 22, Arkansas 20 (2004)
Since 1991, this has basically been a series of pent-up aggression: Whichever rival takes an early lead when they meet just keeps wailing away for a while. Arkansas won two bowl meetings (the 2000 Cotton Bowl and the 2014 Texas Bowl) by a combined 58-13, Texas won a home game in Austin 52-10 in 2008, and Arkansas won a home game in Fayetteville, Steve Sarkisian’s second game in charge at Texas, by a score of 40-21 in 2021.
A 2003-04 home-and-home series produced some drama, though. Arkansas upset No. 6 Texas by a 38-28 margin in 2003, using an early 21-0 run to build some space, getting 217 combined rushing yards from Cedric Cobbs and quarterback Matt Jones and scoring every time it needed to down the stretch.
But with a young quarterback by the name of Vince Young taking over for UT in 2004, the Longhorns got some revenge. Texas built a quick 9-0 advantage with a safety from a bombed punt snap and a 49-yard TD from Young to David Thomas. And from there, it was the Cedric Benson show: The star running back produced 201 yards from scrimmage and scored via both ground and air. Texas held a 22-17 lead into the fourth quarter, and after forcing an Arkansas field goal with 9:58 left, the Longhorns’ defense forced three consecutive turnovers to ice the win. Arkansas would stumble to a disappointing 5-6 record, while Mack Brown’s Longhorns would finish 11-1 before winning the national title a year later.
The most recent Hogs-Horns game might turn out to have been pretty useful. “I don’t know what Darrell Royal did to Arkansas back in the day,” Sarkisian joked with reporters this week, “but they absolutely hate our guts. And I think we learned that the first time around when we went there.”
Texas knows what it’s walking into, at least. They know to expect a Horns Down or two, though we’ll have to wait and see if Sam Pittman gets in on the act.
Texas
Best social media reactions from Texas A&M’s 18-11 loss to MSU
The pitching woes continued for Texas A&M in its 18-11 series-opening loss to Mississippi State at Blue Bell Park on Thursday night.
Typically, scoring 11 runs in an SEC contest equates to a win, but not for the Aggies. Jason Kelly’s pitching staff gave up the most runs in a single inning since Texas A&M joined the conference in 2012. To make matters worse, the loss was tied for the most runs allowed this season, which came in an 18-5 run-rule loss to Auburn on May 2.
Needless to say, the bullpen has much work to do moving forward. With postseason play right around the corner, it is make-or-break for the pitchers on the roster to step up and provide consistency on the mound for the Aggies. If Texas A&M drops the series to the Bulldogs on Friday, it will be the end of the team’s hopes of being a national seed.
The Aggies will aim to avoid dropping their third straight SEC series, as they face Mississippi State in Game 2 at Blue Bell Park on Friday. First pitch against the Bulldogs is scheduled for 4 p.m. CT and will be broadcast live on SEC Network+.
Here are some of the best social media reactions from Texas A&M’s loss to Mississippi State in Game 1:
Final score from Blue Bell Park
18 runs… yes, you read that correctly
Statistics from the series-opening loss
Mississippi State takes down No. 10 in Game 1
Texas A&M drops in the league standings
That one stings a little
Poor night for A&M on the mound
Kellner’s mask was a sight to see
A closer look at Kellner’s mask guarding his eye
Grahovac’s lead-off solo home run
Hacopian’s solo home run in the first
RPI update
Weston Moss slated to start in Game 2
The formula for success wasn’t there for the Aggies in the series opener
Frustrating night on the bump for Texas A&M
The Aggies must find an answer to the lack of consistent performances on the mound
Contact/Follow us @AggiesWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Texas A&M news, notes and opinions. Follow Dylan on X: @dylanmflippo.
Texas
‘We have great support’: Coach Bucky speaks at Dallas A&M Club event
Texas A&M football and basketball may be in the quiet stretch of their calendars, but the offseason doesn’t mean the work slows down. This is the time for coaches to hit the road, meet with Aggie clubs, and lay out the vision for the months ahead. One of the first stops each summer is the Dallas Aggies Coaches Night.
Hosted annually by the Dallas A&M Club, the event brings together several Texas A&M head coaches. This year, first‑year basketball coach Bucky McMillan joined football coach Mike Elko. Before the program began, both coaches met with the media and offered updates on their teams. And while football naturally draws the biggest spotlight, McMillan delivered plenty of insight into his first year in Aggieland and the foundation he’s building.
Below are some of the most notable quotes from Coach Bucky’s appearance at Coaches Night.
Texas A&M head basketball coach Bucky McMillan speaks on attending his first Dallas A&M Club event
“We didn’t have a roster. We didn’t have any coaches… It was wild, but since then I have gotten to meet so many great people and so many I have made friends with.”
Coach Bucky McMillan on the support they team received
“We have great support, and you did it with a coach you didn’t know very well. We broke a lot of records last year… We broke 15 A&M records. We are going to break all those again next year. I was proud of our defense, as small as we were.”
Coach Bucky McMillan discusses what being in Aggieland has meant to him
“Aggies love Aggies and A&M. I am from SEC country in the middle of Alabama. I tell my friends, the honor and tradition of being an Aggie is something I don’t take lightly. The honor of the people, it’s truly awesome. It makes me proud to wear this on my shirt.”
Coach Bucky McMillan on Mike Elko
“The football coach has to deal with a lot more things than I do… We lose a game, and most of y’all know about it, but everybody knows if he loses a game.” “The one thing I know is there could not better coach for Texas A&M than Mike Elko.”
Coach Bucky McMillan on the 2026-27 basketball season
“We are going to take that next step. We were a game away from the Sweet 16 this year, and we are going to be in that second weekend next year, trying to get the Final Four.”
Here’s a look at the impact the Dallas A&M Club has had since its founding.
Established in 1902, the Dallas A&M Club has awarded hundreds of thousands of dollars in scholarships to Dallas-area students attending Texas A&M – with 29 Aggie fish and sophomores currently benefiting from our $6,000 scholarship awards.
As the chartered A&M Club for all of Dallas County, the DAMC has also generously given back to The Association of Former Students by contributing to the following: Aggie Park, Endowed Aggie Ring Scholarship (4), Endowed Diamond Century Club, Endowed Scholarship Fund, Corregidor Muster Memorial Fund, Building Enhancement Campaign, and The Association’s Annual Fund.
Contact/Follow us @AggiesWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Texas A&M news, notes and opinions. Follow Jarrett Johnson on X: @whosnextsports1.
Texas
ERCOT Warns Texas AI Power Boom May Not Materialize
Texas is planning its grid around an unprecedented wave of AI-driven power demand that the state’s energy regulator says may not fully materialize on projected timelines.
In a recent filing to the Public Utility Commission of Texas, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) projected statewide power demand could surge to nearly 368 GW by 2032 – more than four times the state’s current peak demand record of 85.5 GW. But the filing also contains an unusual warning from the grid operator itself.
“ERCOT has concerns with using the preliminary load forecast values for the Reliability Assessment and any other transmission and resource adequacy analysis,” the organization wrote in its April 2026 long-term load forecast filing.
The organization added that it may seek adjustments to the forecast based on “actual historical realization rates or other objective, credible, independent information.”
ERCOT has already begun adjusting for realization risk internally. In its 2025 long-term load forecast report, the grid operator said the “average peak consumption per site was 49.8% of the requested MW” and applied that factor to projected non-crypto data center load additions in some planning models.
ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas said the forecast reflects “higher-than-expected future load growth” tied to changing large-load planning dynamics.
Texas has emerged as a hotspot for data center growth, with numerous new projects reshaping the energy market and challenging grid capacity. (Image: Alamy)
Texas Developers Race Ahead of Grid Capacity
Texas has emerged as a key data center market, driven by its abundant land, competitive energy prices, and favorable regulatory environment. This combination has positioned the state as a magnet for hyperscale operators and AI infrastructure investments. The state is estimated to account for around 15% of all data center connectivity in the US.
Recent and proposed AI data center campuses tied to OpenAI, Oracle, Meta, Crusoe, CoreWeave, Soluna, and other hyperscale operators are reshaping Texas grid planning. Developers have proposed large campuses across North Texas, Abilene, West Texas, and the Houston corridor, many requiring hundreds of megawatts of capacity and, in some cases, dedicated onsite generation to bypass interconnection delays. That buildout pushed ERCOT’s non-crypto data center forecast above 228 GW by 2032.
Developers are continuing to pursue Texas aggressively because ERCOT still offers faster timelines and more flexible market structures than many competing regions. Several proposed campuses pair AI infrastructure with onsite gas generation, colocated power assets, or flexible-load arrangements to navigate mounting transmission constraints.
Utilities across the US are grappling with AI-driven electricity growth, but ERCOT’s projections stand apart for both scale and uncertainty. PJM Interconnection, the nation’s largest grid operator, expects summer peak demand to climb above 241 GW over the next 15 years as data centers and electrification expand. ERCOT, by contrast, projects demand potentially reaching nearly 368 GW by 2032, driven largely by proposed non-crypto data center loads. At the same time, the grid operator openly questions how much of that demand will materialize on schedule.
Bigger Than Texas
Similar pressures are emerging elsewhere. In California, CAISO’s latest transmission plan cited “data center load growth” as a driver of major grid upgrades and described interconnection volumes as “unmanageable” before recent queue reforms.
A recent Grid Strategies report reached a similar conclusion nationally, warning that the “data center portion of utility load forecasts is likely overstated by roughly 25 GW” compared with market-based deployment estimates.
Ihab Osman, an independent strategist specializing in data center and other mission-critical infrastructure, said the distinction is less about “real” versus “fake” AI demand and more about “announced versus deliverable demand.”
“A large share of the current AI/data center planned load should be treated as paper megawatts until it is validated through physical gates,” Osman said, citing factors including site control, transmission deliverability, generation availability, turbine and transformer supply, permitting, financing, and credible energization schedules.
Osman said ERCOT’s forecast is best understood as “a stress-test map, not as a fait accompli build map.”
Separating ’Paper Megawatts’ From Real Demand
The filing shows Texas regulators and grid planners struggling to distinguish operating AI infrastructure from a rapidly expanding pipeline of proposed projects.
“The vast majority” of ERCOT’s projected load growth comes from submissions provided by transmission and distribution utilities, according to the filing. Those requests include hyperscale AI campuses, GPU clusters, and other large industrial loads seeking future grid capacity reservations.
Alison Silverstein, a former senior adviser to the chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, said “a large proportion” of projects in ERCOT’s large-load interconnection queue have already been canceled, particularly among smaller developers facing long interconnection delays and high turbine and transformer costs.
Forecasts Collide With Physical Infrastructure Limits
ERCOT has also signaled that many projects may not materialize on the timelines shaping transmission planning.
The grid operator said summer 2026 peak demand is likely to land between roughly 90.5 GW and 98 GW – far below the preliminary 112 GW figure embedded in the long-term forecast. ERCOT said it appears “unlikely” that new large-load projects and existing site expansions will ramp quickly enough to push demand that high this year.
The filing suggests uncertainty around AI-related load growth is beginning to influence broader infrastructure planning assumptions. By 2032, ERCOT projects non-crypto data centers reaching 228 GW of demand, compared with just 9 GW from cryptocurrency mining and roughly 3 GW each from hydrogen/e-fuels and oil-and-gas-related industrial growth.
The move also suggests the regulator is no longer simply forecasting AI-driven growth, but also working to determine how much of the proposed boom can actually be financed, supplied, interconnected, and energized before utilities commit billions to long-lived infrastructure.
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