CORPUS CHRISTI, Tex. — Jana Pinson leaned over the desk on the architect’s workplace, craning for a greater take a look at the textures and patterns that will convey her post-Roe goals to life.
Texas
A Texas blueprint for converting the ‘abortion-minded’: Lattes and a view
With abortion banned, a disaster being pregnant heart plots a $10-million waterfront growth for the post-Roe period
The chief director of the Being pregnant Middle of the Coastal Bend had just lately overseen the acquisition of what she sees as probably the most “strategic” plot of land in Corpus Christi, a metropolis of 300,000 individuals on the South Texas coast. Proper subsequent to the native Texas A&M campus, searching over the Oso Bay, Pinson’s $10 million disaster being pregnant heart will likely be constructed to draw feminine undergraduates, with a espresso store and a thrift retailer seen from the street, and a patio the place college students can sip their caffè lattes.
Chuck Anastos, the architect, gestured to the blueprint for the 20,000-square-foot facility. When it opens in February 2024, he mentioned, the being pregnant heart could be the “hip place for individuals to return.”
Over the previous 50 years of authorized abortion in America, disaster being pregnant facilities have been one of many high instruments of the antiabortion motion, and a goal for intense criticism from abortion rights advocates. With greater than 2,500 places throughout the US, these facilities deploy what critics decry as overly aggressive — even misleading — ways to speak ladies out of abortions. Typically religiously affiliated, they sometimes supply free being pregnant checks and ultrasounds, typically initially presenting themselves as abortion clinics or goal sources of “abortion info.”
Now that abortion is banned throughout a lot of the South and Midwest, together with Texas, many disaster being pregnant facilities in these areas are making ready to imagine a bigger function, stepping right into a void left by shuttered abortion clinics because the go-to place for ultrasound exams and being pregnant assets, even though they aren’t licensed medical amenities. The purpose is to intercept ladies earlier than they will entry abortion another manner — via a web based pharmacy or throughout state traces — and persuade them that they’ll have help.
With its new constructing in Corpus Christi, the Being pregnant Middle of the Coastal Bend would develop into house to one of many largest such amenities within the nation. The middle’s plans, detailed in blueprints, artist renderings and different paperwork reviewed by The Washington Publish, supply a uncommon glimpse contained in the post-Roe technique of a disaster being pregnant heart in transition.
Pinson, 60, has emerged as a outstanding champion of reworking these facilities — typically mom-and-pop outlets that function as small storefronts — into large-scale skilled operations. Along with directing the rise of her personal group, she has taken on the function of evangelist, coaching different heart administrators within the instruments and ways required for a brand new period.
In Texas, which means tapping into what has develop into a dependable stream of public cash. The legislature authorised $100 million for disaster being pregnant facilities in 2021, to be doled out over two years, whereas concurrently banning abortions after six weeks of being pregnant. Pinson says the brand new constructing will likely be financed largely by state cash — funding that’s distributed with little authorities oversight. Information present the middle acquired $776,000 final yr.
Pinson’s plans are usually not broadly recognized in Corpus Christi, and are possible to attract controversy as building begins, particularly on campus.
“They need to camouflage what their mission actually is with iced espresso and a thrift store,” mentioned Molly Davis, a sophomore at Texas A&M in Corpus Christi, who leads Islander Feminists, an abortion rights group that plans to protest Pinson’s new constructing.
Since Roe was overturned, a number of of the 5 present places of the Being pregnant Middle of the Coastal Bend have been busier than ever, mentioned Pinson, who plans to remain open an additional three hours every night time to fulfill demand.
On the assembly with the architect, Pinson carefully surveyed her flooring plan for the long run, stating the elements she says will assist her attain tens of 1000’s of girls in South Texas over the subsequent 50 years. The ability could have 9 counseling rooms, six sonogram rooms and a “man cave” with a pool desk, the place males will likely be approached by an authorized marriage counselor as they look ahead to the ladies they impregnated.
Just a few years from now, Pinson thought they could add a kayak launch and some chairs beneath the palm timber, so ladies might spend a day of reflection searching on the bay.
“Excellent time, good house,” Pinson mentioned with a smile. “I name it the post-Roe constructing.”
When Pinson took over the Being pregnant Middle of the Coastal Bend in 2014, the group had seven staff and a finances of about $125,000, tax returns present. The middle appeared like “grandma’s home,” Pinson mentioned, with a hodgepodge of discarded furnishings donated by native church buildings.
“It was the best way all of the outdated being pregnant facilities have been,” she mentioned.
A pastor’s spouse and former advertising and marketing government, Pinson carries her iPad together with her in every single place she goes, tucked inside a leather-based Kate Spade tote. She has develop into a recognized entity inside the Texas antiabortion motion, taking her place beside Gov. Greg Abbott (R) when he signed the Texas Heartbeat Act within the spring of 2021. Her cellphone is all the time dinging, and it doesn’t matter what she’s doing, she all the time checks the message. It may be a brand new donor, keen to write down her a examine.
Pinson’s first mission as government director was to do extra to focus on “AMs,” what she calls “abortion-minded” ladies. The group had bought an ultrasound machine — broadly regarded inside the being pregnant heart motion as one of the best ways to achieve individuals contemplating abortion — however they have been nonetheless primarily seeing “LTCs,” or “more likely to carrys.”
And so Pinson took to Google, she mentioned, paying 1000’s of {dollars} to bid on key search phrases. Now, each time somebody in Corpus Christi searches for phrases like “want an abortion” or “abortion value Texas,” the Being pregnant Middle of the Coastal Bend is frequently the primary merchandise on the listing.
Pinson concurrently revamped the web site, including inventory images of ladies gazing out on the ocean — and utilizing the phrase “abortion” as many occasions as doable. Sufferers who go to the middle’s homepage at present can click on on “I Need An Abortion,” which directs to a web page that claims: “CONFIDENTIAL ABORTION CONSULTATION — NO COST TO YOU.” There are detailed descriptions of each surgical and drugs abortions, estimated prices and a number of other buttons that assist you to schedule an appointment.
Trying on the heart’s web site, even antiabortion donors are confused. Often, Pinson mentioned, she’ll get offended cellphone calls from conservative members of the group, demanding to know why the Being pregnant Middle of the Coastal Bend is speaking about abortion.
“I’m like, ‘What am I supposed to speak about?’ ” she mentioned. “How else do you get an abortion-minded lady to know that you simply’re there?”
Eighteen-year-old Brooke Alexander — whose story was depicted in a Washington Publish article in June — was one of many a whole lot of abortion-minded ladies who discovered herself at Pinson’s being pregnant heart in 2021. Like each consumer who arrives searching for an abortion, Alexander was suggested on what a counselor instructed her have been the potential dangers of the process, together with infertility, breast most cancers and demise. These claims are broadly disputed by main medical organizations.
Even after leaving the being pregnant heart — and deciding to proceed her being pregnant — Alexander had no concept the group had an antiabortion mission.
Pinson has no qualms about her methods, which she says have been extremely efficient: The primary yr she began Google promoting, she mentioned the variety of “abortion-minded” purchasers on the heart elevated by virtually 90 %.
Now they’ve 50 staff and an annual finances of roughly $2 million, Pinson mentioned. Final yr, she mentioned, they satisfied 583 ladies to hold their pregnancies to time period.
On a current Wednesday morning in July, Pinson drove half-hour to a department of her being pregnant heart in Calallen, Tex., the place she has been piloting what she refers to as their “prenatal care program.” Housed in a medical plaza, subsequent to a number of physician’s places of work, the middle affords blood checks, ultrasounds and finally a referral to an OB/GYN through the consumer’s second trimester.
“Publish-Roe must have prenatal,” Pinson mentioned. “We’re taking good care of the entire lady.”
When she grew to become government director, Pinson shortly amped up what she calls the middle’s medical choices. They bought a number of state-of-the-art ultrasounds, together with a $65,000 machine Pinson calls her “Ferrari,” following a broader nationwide development amongst disaster being pregnant facilities to seem as professionalized medical amenities. In virtually all instances, these facilities haven’t any docs on employees, mentioned Andrea Swartzendruber, a professor on the College of Georgia School of Public Well being who research disaster being pregnant facilities.
On the web site for the Being pregnant Middle of the Coastal Bend, a disclaimer seems on the backside that reads, “Info is supplied as an academic service and shouldn’t be relied on as an alternative choice to skilled and/or medical recommendation.”
The majority of the medical choices are administered by seven registered nurses, a nurse practitioner and two diagnostic medical sonographers, considered one of whom, in keeping with Pinson, orchestrates and oversees a 40-hour coaching to show the nurses the right way to learn ultrasound scans. Whereas Pinson says she will be able to’t afford to rent docs, two native OB/GYNs volunteer as “medical administrators,” reviewing ultrasound scans and calling in to seek the advice of on any doubtlessly high-risk conditions through FaceTime. As a “kindness,” Pinson mentioned, a physician may come into the middle to see a affected person each six months or so.
Each time Pinson’s employees sees what they assume may be an ectopic or a molar being pregnant — doubtlessly life-threatening circumstances that crop up at her facilities a number of occasions a yr — they textual content a photograph to one of many medical administrators, who advises on whether or not the consumer must be despatched to the emergency room. Even and not using a physician on-site, Pinson mentioned she feels “phenomenally assured” that they are going to catch any critical issues.
Main medical organizations see it otherwise.
“These locations are extremely harmful for our sufferers,” mentioned Nisha Verma, an OB/GYN and a spokesperson for the American School of Obstetricians and Gynecologists.
ACOG has voiced concern in regards to the medicalization of disaster being pregnant facilities, arguing that the trimmings of well being care lead sufferers to consider that heart staffers are totally skilled to establish potential issues. As a result of being pregnant facilities aren’t licensed medical amenities, Verma mentioned, they’re exempt from the legal guidelines and statutes that govern medical clinics — placing them within the extraordinary place of offering unregulated medical companies.
The Texas Well being and Human Providers Fee, which licenses health-care amenities, doesn’t monitor disaster being pregnant facilities as a result of they don’t fall inside its “regulatory scope,” mentioned Christine Mann, a spokeswoman for the HSCC.
In her new constructing, Pinson says she is going to supply extra medical companies than ever earlier than, together with an expanded prenatal program. Together with the sonogram rooms, the constructing’s flooring plans embrace a nurses’ station, two “medical companies places of work,” two rooms for “blood drawing” and a physician’s workplace.
She additionally plans to develop their “abortion reversal” choices over the subsequent few years, as extra ladies in South Texas take abortion tablets obtained illegally or in Mexico. The observe — denounced by ACOG as doubtlessly harmful however broadly embraced by the antiabortion motion — includes administering the hormone progesterone to a affected person quickly after they take the primary of two abortion tablets, in an try to “reverse” the abortion.
A scientific trial for abortion reversal ended abruptly in 2019, after a number of sufferers began hemorrhaging so severely that they needed to be rushed to the hospital.
Andrew Folley, Pinson’s solely medical director who will take part in abortion reversal, mentioned he has “no considerations” in regards to the process, which he says he has facilitated a handful of occasions since Pinson’s heart began providing the service a yr in the past. The physician is open about his causes for prescribing progesterone and volunteering on the heart.
“I really feel that conception is the start of life,” he mentioned. “I don’t see the place there’s a girl’s proper or a human proper to homicide an unborn child.”
Each week, Pinson sits down at her desk with a stack of thanks letters, signing a number of dozen notes to donors. Since Roe was overturned, the middle has seen a spike in help, Pinson mentioned — and he or she is decided to maintain it going.
Pinson, who in keeping with the middle’s treasurer was paid $75,000 in 2021, mentioned she raised extra money within the first half of 2022 than any six-month interval within the heart’s historical past, with donors energized by the prospect of a post-Roe future. For the middle’s annual banquet in March, over 2,800 individuals packed into the leisure megacenter downtown — an area that has hosted Flo Rida and the WWE SmackDown — to listen to in regards to the being pregnant heart and see Tim Tebow, an NFL participant turned antiabortion activist. After the viewers loved a barbecue dinner, Pinson directed their consideration to 15-foot-wide mock-ups of the middle’s new constructing.
That night time, the middle raised over $850,000 — a sum Pinson will principally put towards her each day operations.
To finance her grandest ambitions, she depends on the state.
Texas began funding disaster being pregnant facilities in 2006, when lawmakers allotted $5 million for what they referred to as the “Alternate options to Abortion” program. Since then, the Texas program has grown exponentially alongside comparable initiatives in a couple of dozen different states, the place laws has typically accompanied abortion bans.
The Texas program has garnered sharp criticism for its failure to supply detailed info on how this ballooning pot of cash is used.
“It is vitally irritating that the legislature has continued to pour funds right into a program the place there’s virtually no transparency, no accountability and mainly no metrics to the tune of $100 million with none medical or well being companies being supplied,” mentioned state Rep. Donna Howard (D), a member of the appropriations committee. “Half of what they do is give out pamphlets.”
The Texas Being pregnant Care Community, the contractor that administers the state funds and is answerable for monitoring the Being pregnant Middle of the Coastal Bend, doesn’t oversee any service thought of “medical,” Pinson mentioned, together with ultrasounds. John McNamara, the community’s government director, has not responded to calls and emails from The Publish.
The Texas cash comes with one situation that has led many being pregnant facilities to show down state help, Pinson mentioned: To qualify, facilities must ask a consumer’s permission earlier than they broach something non secular. Whereas Pinson agreed to these phrases when she started accepting the funding in 2018, the middle’s purchasers are incentivized to join Bible research courses, the place attendance is rewarded with “factors” redeemable for diapers and child garments.
“We’ve employees which can be dedicated to share Christ with each lady that walks via that door,” Pinson mentioned in a 2019 promotional video, calling the middle a “ministry.” Pinson will refer ladies who want further help to native church buildings, which she says do “a stupendous job of coming round mamas and strolling them via.”
Since Roe was overturned, Pinson mentioned she’s heard from loads of offended abortion rights advocates, demanding to know the way she intends to assist the ladies she helps persuade to hold to time period. Generally she affords to present them a tour of her inventory room, the place diapers are stacked to the rafters.
“We gave out 200,000 diapers final yr.” If there’s a girl in want, she says, “there’s completely nothing we couldn’t assist them with.”
In line with authorities estimates, the typical value of elevating a toddler in the US is $233,610.
Pinson’s closing cease of the day was the church the place her husband preaches. Eight ladies had already arrived, ready for her with thick white binders, able to be skilled as volunteers.
“Abortions are closed in Texas,” she instructed the group: The closest abortion clinics to Corpus Christi, in San Antonio and McAllen, had simply introduced plans to shutter and transfer to New Mexico.
That was an excellent signal, Pinson mentioned — however they may not permit themselves to develop into complacent.
Different threats nonetheless loomed.
By the tip of 2023, Meg Autry, an OB/GYN based mostly out of the College of California at San Francisco, plans to sail a vessel into the Gulf of Mexico and supply abortions for ladies on federal waters, 9 miles out to sea. Deep in South Texas, with no direct flights out of state, Corpus Christi will likely be a precedence, she mentioned.
“It’s probably the most important level,” mentioned Autry, who obtained the thought from playing boats that sail up and down the Mississippi River, skirting native legal guidelines. “In case your concept is to attempt to present abortion entry to probably the most variety of individuals on the water within the U.S., that is the place to do it.”
If her efforts are profitable, she is going to present the individuals of Corpus Christi with probably the most handy abortion entry they’ve had because the native clinic closed in 2014.
“I’m going to want a being pregnant heart boat,” Pinson instructed her husband as quickly as she heard about Autry’s plans on the information.
If they will get an “abortion-minded” lady to have a dialog, Pinson feels assured that the middle’s employees can change her thoughts. Of their counseling periods, Pinson says, they “pour into ladies,” persuading them that, irrespective of the obstacles of their lives, they will develop into profitable moms.
Pinson welcomes even probably the most devastating instances.
“I’ve seen loads of 13-year-olds do phenomenal, completely phenomenal,” she mentioned. “It doesn’t must be a damaging factor.”
She carefully adopted the case of the 10-year-old rape sufferer who was denied an abortion in Ohio final month. If that lady got here into her heart, Pinson would recommend she take into account adoption, she mentioned, including that abortion wouldn’t repair the lady’s issues.
“That life continues to be a life and, even at 10, she is aware of a life is inside her.”
Each time a brand new disaster being pregnant heart opens in South Texas, Pinson says, she often hears from its leaders. They name her up, asking for recommendation — and he or she invitations them to shadow for the day.
Within the wake of the Roe determination, Pinson met up with Nelda Flores, who plans to open a small heart in Mission, Tex., in August.
“You’ve completely obtained to go medical,” Pinson mentioned, palms on the steering wheel, shuttling Flores from considered one of her facilities to a different. “I’ll beg, borrow and steal to get you an ultrasound machine.”
Flores took livid notes all morning as Pinson suggested her on the right way to appeal to volunteers, which grants she ought to apply for and the right way to discover a medical director.
“God will develop your heart as quick as you’ll step out in religion,” Pinson mentioned.
Simply take a look at what they’d performed in Corpus Christi, she added.
In 10 years, Flores might construct an operation identical to hers.
Dr. Paul Biddinger, chief of emergency preparedness at Mass General Brigham, spends a lot of time preparing for worst-case scenarios. With the deadly tragedy unfolding in Texas, he shares some lessons that officials and families can learn to help mitigate the danger of a weather disaster.
The catastrophe was caused by a perfect storm of difficult-to-forecast rainfall and fast-moving water. Some wonder if budget cuts made things worse.
Search for Texas flood survivors intensifies
A search for Texas flood survivors intensified as Texas Governor Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration for nearly two dozen Texas counties.
The Texas rains hadn’t even slowed before the debate began about why forecasts had underestimated the devastating flooding over Independence Day weekend.
Local and state officials, social media users and even the meteorology community raised questions. What were the National Weather Service forecasts? Why is it so hard to know where rain will fall? Did staff reductions at the weather service, and other budget cuts by the Trump administration contribute to the catastrophe? What role did weather balloons play in the storm forecasts?
Answers to some of these questions and many others may never be adequately answered, especially for the families of dozens of children swept away by floodwaters.
At least 81 people died between July 4 and 6 and dozens more were injured or remain missing, state officials said. On a weekend when families often celebrate with cookouts and fireworks, these families, overwhelmed with grief, were providing DNA samples so a state laboratory could rapidly identify victims.
A series of circumstances, colliding at the worst possible location and time, caused the tremendous flooding, several meteorologists told USA TODAY. During a July 6 news conference, Texas state officials said there would be much to discuss in the weeks ahead.
A few things are known, including how difficult it remains to pinpoint where thunderstorms will drop their heaviest rain, what the weather service said and when, and staffing levels at two local forecast offices.
The horrific tragedy arrived in the midst of a maelstrom already brewing over the National Weather Service, its parent agency and the Trump administration’s budget cuts.
It’s “clear that many people are allowing their desire to score political points to color their insights and opinions on this tragedy,” Alan Gerard, who retired earlier this year from the National Severe Storms Laboratory, wrote in his Substack blog on July 6.
“The National Weather Service office did everything they should do from everything I can tell,” said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground, a commercial forecasting agency, and a former hurricane scientist with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters.
Despite the recent cuts to NOAA, the National Weather Service performed well in the Texas tragedy and in the recent deadly flooding in Kentucky, Masters said. “It reminds us how important it is to have talented, experienced people at a well-funded National Weather Service.”
“But we are pushing our luck,” he noted,” if we think the cuts at NOAA won’t cause a breakdown in our ability to get people out of harm’s way in the future.”
Were weather forecasts wrong?
Although the warnings arrived less than 24 hours before the flooding started, long-time weather service veterans and regional experts say that’s not all that unusual in this region. It’s a known shortcoming of the localized rain models forecasters use. They can’t yet pinpoint exactly where intense rain might fall and when on an individual community.
One expert, Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon, said it appears the weather service employees in Austin/San Antonio did what they could, based on the available information.
“From what I saw, the warnings were pretty timely,” said Nielsen-Gammon, a meteorology professor at Texas A&M University,
The weather service office first advised on July 1 and 2 that a very moist air mass was moving in that would increase rain chances across south-central Texas with heavy rain at times that could lead to minor local flooding.An early morning forecast on July 3 by the NWS Weather Prediction Center said the region should expect “unseasonably moist” air that could bring 1 to 2 inches of rain an hour and lead to flooding, with approaching storms tapping into abundant tropical moisture.
As the day progressed, a clearer picture emerged of how weather systems were interacting above Texas to form storms. An “urgent” flood watch at 1:18 p.m. July 3 warned heavy rain, with isolated amounts of 5 to 7 inches, could cause flash flooding and “excessive” runoff that could flood rivers and streams. The watch covered eight counties, including Kerr and Bandera where some of the heaviest flooding occurred.
By 7:02 p.m., the weather prediction center warned leftover bits of Tropical Storm Barry, near-record moisture and an unstable atmosphere meant any storms that formed could be self-sustaining, with a potential for rain rates of more than 3 inches an hour, and they could rain over the same area again and again. It stated: “Considerable flash flooding this evening is possible.”
A flurry of forecast updates continued.
At 1:14 a.m. on July 4, the weather service issued a “Flash Flood Warning” for central Kerr County and northwestern Bandera County. Almost simultaneously, water flow began increasing dramatically on the Guadalupe River at Hunt, Texas.
“This pleasing stream had a flow rate of 53 gallons per second at midnight on July 4,” said Nielsen-Gammon. At 3 a.m., it was flowing at 264 gallons per second. Between 3 a.m. and 3:30 am., the water flow jumped to 125,000 gallons per second. Within four hours of the initial rise, the river level jumped 21.8 feet and was flowing at 900,000 gallons per second.
Did weather service cuts have an impact?
President Donald Trump campaigned on cutting the federal bureaucracy and reducing the budget. His administration, including the Office of Management and Budget and the Department of Governmental Efficiency, has been mission-focused on doing so.
The sweeping cuts left many federal offices short-staffed and demoralized, according to recent retirees.
Many remaining employees, including those who declined to speak on the record for fear of retribution, say employees still fear more jobs will be lost in a reduction in force. Federal agencies were required to prepare a plan for making further reductions, but a federal judge in California ruled in May that the job cuts could not move forward.
The weather service office in Austin/San Antonio oversees much of the Hill Country area where the flooding took place. Of the 26 staff positions in that office, six are vacant at the moment, including two senior members, said Victor Murphy, a recently retired National Weather Service meteorologist in Texas. One of those is the warning coordination meteorologist who oversees emergency warnings and working with local officials on communicating around such events.
The Austin office also is short two forecasters.
Did the cuts play any role in the recent tragedy? Murphy wondered out loud. “I don’t know … The fact is that the office had record flooding two days in a row.”
The San Angelo, Texas office is down four positions, including a staff forecaster, a lead hydrologist and its meteorologist in charge, said Tom Fahy, legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization.
Weather service forecasters often become “an easy target for people’s wrath,” when people are looking for someone to blame, Fahy said.
“The real blame is the Trump Administration budget cuts to NWS and FEMA that cut off coordination planning with local emergency management officials,” he said. “Even during Trump’s 1st term, NWS managers would plan, practice and train their combined teams for increased cooperation. All that ended when Trump was inaugurated in 2025.”
President Trump said July 6 that he doesn’t think the federal government needs to rehire weather service meteorologists in the wake of catastrophic Texas flooding.
“I would think not,” Trump told reporters when asked about rehiring weather forecasters, adding that flooding “happened in seconds. Nobody expected it.”
When asked if he would investigate whether the cuts left key vacancies in the weather service or emergency coordination, Trump said he “wouldn’t blame (former President Joe) Biden for it either. I would just say this is a 100-year catastrophe, and it’s just so horrible for all.”
Why is it so hard to know where rain will fall?
At a news conference on July 5, Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, said: “The original forecast that we received on Wednesday from the National Weather Service predicted 3 to 6 inches of rain in the Concho valley and 4 to 8 inches in the Hill Country.”
“The amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never in any of those forecasts,” Kidd said.
Rainfall estimates in these extreme rainfall events have fallen short before, frustrating emergency managers, forecasters and even members of Congress, who approved measures in 2021 and 2022 to improve rainfall modeling and estimates of maximum possible precipitation within any given time frame.
As the weather service looked at their computers on July 3, the models they use for forecasting thunderstorms wouldn’t come together with a consensus on where the greatest rain would fall, according to their discussions. Many showed the potential for extreme rainfall somewhere in central Texas, while others showed almost nothing happening, Nielsen-Gammon said. “Where it was going to develop would depend on the details of the individual thunderstorms that popped up.”
Pinpointing localized extreme rain remains “a very difficult challenge,” said Gerard. Any time you have this type of environment, there’s going to be a chance that local areas are going to get more rain than anticipated.”
Rainfall in a storm is “controlled by very small-scale processes that are happening within the storm,” said Gerard, now CEO of weather consulting company Balanced Weather. “We don’t have the resolution of modeling to be able to forecast that yet.”
The storms laboratory is working to develop higher resolution modeling, he said, but it’s on the chopping block in the president’s proposed budget.
Did weather service balloon launches play a role?
Weather balloon launches measure moisture up through the atmosphere to help predict how much is available for rain. The better the data, the better the outcome, said Murphy, the recently retired Texas meteorologist. “You find out from a sounding what’s up 20,000, 30,000 or 40,000 feet. The only way to measure that is with a balloon.”
However, staffing shortages at local weather service offices across the U.S. has forced the limiting or cancelation of numerous weather balloon launches. Of 11 locations in Texas and surrounding states that were launching in the early spring, only six of the sites now launch balloons on any given morning, Murphy said.
There was only one weather balloon launch within 200 miles of the flooded area, Nielsen-Gammon said.
However, that one weather balloon proved its worth, the experts said, providing essential information that helped weather service forecasters see the increased chances for rain.
Launched remotely from an automated site in Del Rio, Texas, Murphy said it’s “the only one of its kind in the region.”
But the federal cutbacks and rising number of climate disasters mean the public is likely to blame someone for every botched forecast and missed opportunity to warn ‒ whether deservedly or not.
On July 7, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt defended the president and the National Weather Service’s performance.
“Blaming President Trump for these floods is a depraved lie and it serves no purpose during this time of national mourning,” Leavitt said. “The National Weather Service did its job.”
Contributing: Zac Anderson and Joey Garrison, USA TODAY
Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about climate change, violent weather and other news. Reach her at dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.
Camp Mystic, a 99-year-old Christian summer camp for girls in Texas Hill Country, was hosting 750 children this week when catastrophic flooding struck the Guadalupe River early Friday, leaving at least 20 children missing.
Founded in 1926, Camp Mystic operates two sites along the river in Hunt, Texas. It has long billed itself as a place for girls to grow spiritually and “develop outstanding personal qualities and self-esteem,” according to its website.
Each summer, Mystic challenges its campers to “be a better person for being at Mystic,” and to “let Mystic bring out the best in them.” The camp’s website emphasizes life-long friendships and a “wholesome Christian atmosphere.”
The flash floods killed at least 24 people in Texas Hill Country. The identities of the deceased and missing have not yet been officially released, but dozens of families shared in local Facebook groups that they have received phone calls from safety officials saying their daughters had not yet been located.
Camp Mystic said in an email to parents of the roughly 750 campers that if they have not been contacted directly, their child is accounted for.
Dick and Tweety Eastland, the current owners, have been involved with Camp Mystic since 1974. The camp has remained in the same family for generations, dating back to the 1930s.
A video on the Camp Mystic website shows a sprawling campus by the river, with footage of girls playing in the water, rowing boats, riding horses and playing tennis.
The flash flooding began around 4 a.m. Friday after heavy overnight rain swelled the Guadalupe River. Water swept into Kerr County and surrounding areas with such speed that officials say they were unable to issue evacuation orders in time.
“This happened very quickly, over a very short period of time, that could not be predicted, even with the radar,” said Dalton Rice, city manager for Kerrville, the county seat. “This happened within less than a two-hour span.”
Bodies were reported to have been found in vehicles swept away from upstream areas.
The river had crested in Kerrville and Comfort by Friday evening, but downstream sections — including near Spring Branch — weren’t expected to peak until early Saturday. The National Weather Service projected a crest of 37.2 feet there, considered moderate flood stage.
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