Texas
Who’s to blame for Texas flooding tragedy? There is a lot of finger pointing.
The catastrophe was caused by a perfect storm of difficult-to-forecast rainfall and fast-moving water. Some wonder if budget cuts made things worse.
Search for Texas flood survivors intensifies
A search for Texas flood survivors intensified as Texas Governor Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration for nearly two dozen Texas counties.
The Texas rains hadn’t even slowed before the debate began about why forecasts had underestimated the devastating flooding over Independence Day weekend.
Local and state officials, social media users and even the meteorology community raised questions. What were the National Weather Service forecasts? Why is it so hard to know where rain will fall? Did staff reductions at the weather service, and other budget cuts by the Trump administration contribute to the catastrophe? What role did weather balloons play in the storm forecasts?
Answers to some of these questions and many others may never be adequately answered, especially for the families of dozens of children swept away by floodwaters.
At least 81 people died between July 4 and 6 and dozens more were injured or remain missing, state officials said. On a weekend when families often celebrate with cookouts and fireworks, these families, overwhelmed with grief, were providing DNA samples so a state laboratory could rapidly identify victims.
A series of circumstances, colliding at the worst possible location and time, caused the tremendous flooding, several meteorologists told USA TODAY. During a July 6 news conference, Texas state officials said there would be much to discuss in the weeks ahead.
A few things are known, including how difficult it remains to pinpoint where thunderstorms will drop their heaviest rain, what the weather service said and when, and staffing levels at two local forecast offices.
The horrific tragedy arrived in the midst of a maelstrom already brewing over the National Weather Service, its parent agency and the Trump administration’s budget cuts.
It’s “clear that many people are allowing their desire to score political points to color their insights and opinions on this tragedy,” Alan Gerard, who retired earlier this year from the National Severe Storms Laboratory, wrote in his Substack blog on July 6.
“The National Weather Service office did everything they should do from everything I can tell,” said Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground, a commercial forecasting agency, and a former hurricane scientist with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters.
Despite the recent cuts to NOAA, the National Weather Service performed well in the Texas tragedy and in the recent deadly flooding in Kentucky, Masters said. “It reminds us how important it is to have talented, experienced people at a well-funded National Weather Service.”
“But we are pushing our luck,” he noted,” if we think the cuts at NOAA won’t cause a breakdown in our ability to get people out of harm’s way in the future.”
Were weather forecasts wrong?
Although the warnings arrived less than 24 hours before the flooding started, long-time weather service veterans and regional experts say that’s not all that unusual in this region. It’s a known shortcoming of the localized rain models forecasters use. They can’t yet pinpoint exactly where intense rain might fall and when on an individual community.
One expert, Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon, said it appears the weather service employees in Austin/San Antonio did what they could, based on the available information.
“From what I saw, the warnings were pretty timely,” said Nielsen-Gammon, a meteorology professor at Texas A&M University,
The weather service office first advised on July 1 and 2 that a very moist air mass was moving in that would increase rain chances across south-central Texas with heavy rain at times that could lead to minor local flooding.An early morning forecast on July 3 by the NWS Weather Prediction Center said the region should expect “unseasonably moist” air that could bring 1 to 2 inches of rain an hour and lead to flooding, with approaching storms tapping into abundant tropical moisture.
As the day progressed, a clearer picture emerged of how weather systems were interacting above Texas to form storms. An “urgent” flood watch at 1:18 p.m. July 3 warned heavy rain, with isolated amounts of 5 to 7 inches, could cause flash flooding and “excessive” runoff that could flood rivers and streams. The watch covered eight counties, including Kerr and Bandera where some of the heaviest flooding occurred.
By 7:02 p.m., the weather prediction center warned leftover bits of Tropical Storm Barry, near-record moisture and an unstable atmosphere meant any storms that formed could be self-sustaining, with a potential for rain rates of more than 3 inches an hour, and they could rain over the same area again and again. It stated: “Considerable flash flooding this evening is possible.”
A flurry of forecast updates continued.
At 1:14 a.m. on July 4, the weather service issued a “Flash Flood Warning” for central Kerr County and northwestern Bandera County. Almost simultaneously, water flow began increasing dramatically on the Guadalupe River at Hunt, Texas.
“This pleasing stream had a flow rate of 53 gallons per second at midnight on July 4,” said Nielsen-Gammon. At 3 a.m., it was flowing at 264 gallons per second. Between 3 a.m. and 3:30 am., the water flow jumped to 125,000 gallons per second. Within four hours of the initial rise, the river level jumped 21.8 feet and was flowing at 900,000 gallons per second.
Did weather service cuts have an impact?
President Donald Trump campaigned on cutting the federal bureaucracy and reducing the budget. His administration, including the Office of Management and Budget and the Department of Governmental Efficiency, has been mission-focused on doing so.
The sweeping cuts left many federal offices short-staffed and demoralized, according to recent retirees.
Many remaining employees, including those who declined to speak on the record for fear of retribution, say employees still fear more jobs will be lost in a reduction in force. Federal agencies were required to prepare a plan for making further reductions, but a federal judge in California ruled in May that the job cuts could not move forward.
The weather service office in Austin/San Antonio oversees much of the Hill Country area where the flooding took place. Of the 26 staff positions in that office, six are vacant at the moment, including two senior members, said Victor Murphy, a recently retired National Weather Service meteorologist in Texas. One of those is the warning coordination meteorologist who oversees emergency warnings and working with local officials on communicating around such events.
The Austin office also is short two forecasters.
Did the cuts play any role in the recent tragedy? Murphy wondered out loud. “I don’t know … The fact is that the office had record flooding two days in a row.”
The San Angelo, Texas office is down four positions, including a staff forecaster, a lead hydrologist and its meteorologist in charge, said Tom Fahy, legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization.
Weather service forecasters often become “an easy target for people’s wrath,” when people are looking for someone to blame, Fahy said.
“The real blame is the Trump Administration budget cuts to NWS and FEMA that cut off coordination planning with local emergency management officials,” he said. “Even during Trump’s 1st term, NWS managers would plan, practice and train their combined teams for increased cooperation. All that ended when Trump was inaugurated in 2025.”
President Trump said July 6 that he doesn’t think the federal government needs to rehire weather service meteorologists in the wake of catastrophic Texas flooding.
“I would think not,” Trump told reporters when asked about rehiring weather forecasters, adding that flooding “happened in seconds. Nobody expected it.”
When asked if he would investigate whether the cuts left key vacancies in the weather service or emergency coordination, Trump said he “wouldn’t blame (former President Joe) Biden for it either. I would just say this is a 100-year catastrophe, and it’s just so horrible for all.”
Why is it so hard to know where rain will fall?
At a news conference on July 5, Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, said: “The original forecast that we received on Wednesday from the National Weather Service predicted 3 to 6 inches of rain in the Concho valley and 4 to 8 inches in the Hill Country.”
“The amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never in any of those forecasts,” Kidd said.
Rainfall estimates in these extreme rainfall events have fallen short before, frustrating emergency managers, forecasters and even members of Congress, who approved measures in 2021 and 2022 to improve rainfall modeling and estimates of maximum possible precipitation within any given time frame.
As the weather service looked at their computers on July 3, the models they use for forecasting thunderstorms wouldn’t come together with a consensus on where the greatest rain would fall, according to their discussions. Many showed the potential for extreme rainfall somewhere in central Texas, while others showed almost nothing happening, Nielsen-Gammon said. “Where it was going to develop would depend on the details of the individual thunderstorms that popped up.”
Pinpointing localized extreme rain remains “a very difficult challenge,” said Gerard. Any time you have this type of environment, there’s going to be a chance that local areas are going to get more rain than anticipated.”
Rainfall in a storm is “controlled by very small-scale processes that are happening within the storm,” said Gerard, now CEO of weather consulting company Balanced Weather. “We don’t have the resolution of modeling to be able to forecast that yet.”
The storms laboratory is working to develop higher resolution modeling, he said, but it’s on the chopping block in the president’s proposed budget.
Did weather service balloon launches play a role?
Weather balloon launches measure moisture up through the atmosphere to help predict how much is available for rain. The better the data, the better the outcome, said Murphy, the recently retired Texas meteorologist. “You find out from a sounding what’s up 20,000, 30,000 or 40,000 feet. The only way to measure that is with a balloon.”
However, staffing shortages at local weather service offices across the U.S. has forced the limiting or cancelation of numerous weather balloon launches. Of 11 locations in Texas and surrounding states that were launching in the early spring, only six of the sites now launch balloons on any given morning, Murphy said.
There was only one weather balloon launch within 200 miles of the flooded area, Nielsen-Gammon said.
However, that one weather balloon proved its worth, the experts said, providing essential information that helped weather service forecasters see the increased chances for rain.
Launched remotely from an automated site in Del Rio, Texas, Murphy said it’s “the only one of its kind in the region.”
But the federal cutbacks and rising number of climate disasters mean the public is likely to blame someone for every botched forecast and missed opportunity to warn ‒ whether deservedly or not.
On July 7, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt defended the president and the National Weather Service’s performance.
“Blaming President Trump for these floods is a depraved lie and it serves no purpose during this time of national mourning,” Leavitt said. “The National Weather Service did its job.”
Contributing: Zac Anderson and Joey Garrison, USA TODAY
Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about climate change, violent weather and other news. Reach her at dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, D-Ky., on Sunday said the Texas Senate race is “in play” for Democrats after state Attorney General Ken Paxton beat incumbent John Cornyn in last week’s Senate Republican primary.
“Texas is in play. Democrats have never run against a candidate like Ken Paxton that is so corrupt that his own party impeached him,” Beshear told NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” adding, “This is someone who does not have the character … to serve as AG or even as dog catcher.”
The Kentucky governor referred to the GOP-controlled Texas state House’s impeachment of Paxton in 2023 on bribery and corruption charges before the state Senate acquitted him. The state Senate trial also touched on allegations that Paxton engaged in an extramarital affair while serving as attorney general.
Last year, his wife, who is also a state senator, announced that she had filed for divorce from the attorney general “on biblical grounds” and “in light of recent discoveries.”
Paxton did not testify at his impeachment trial, but he denied any wrongdoing and characterized the misconduct and corruption allegations as false and politically motivated. After his wife announced their divorce, Paxton wrote in a post on X that the two “decided to start a new chapter in our lives” after “countless political attacks.”
Beshear on Sunday said that if elected, Paxton is a person who “would use his office to enrich himself, that would be a rubber stamp for the president, and would do nothing for the people of Texas. He has shown that as AG.”
Beshear pointed to Paxton’s opponent, Texas state Sen. James Talarico, who won the Democratic primary in the state earlier this year as a better candidate for Senate.
Talarico “is spreading his message about being there for American families, about putting them ahead of the politics, about bringing down prices, expanding access to health care, making sure they feel safe in their community,” the Kentucky governor said. “Those things that make life just a little bit better and a little bit easier as the Trump administration is making things so much harder.”
Beshear accused Paxton of attacking Talarico early in the race because he “knows he has nothing to offer.”
“And so what does he do? He simply attacks his opponent over and over,” Beshear added.
Earlier on “Meet the Press,” former Vice President Mike Pence was asked if he supported Paxton and responded indirectly, saying, “If I was voting in Texas, I could never vote for the Democrat nominee.”
Pence added that he was confident the GOP could keep control of the Senate after November’s elections.
“I think in many respects Republicans have lost our way, but Democrats have lost their mind, and I think the reason why we’re going to hold the Senate.”
In Beshear’s interview, the governor also discussed remarks former first lady Jill Biden made last week about concerns she had about former President Joe Biden’s poor debate performance against Trump two years ago.
“I think it’s fair to look back now, given that Joe Biden did drop out, and say he shouldn’t have run for re-election in the first place,” Beshear said. “You can both compliment him for things he did that helped your state and your people, but also be able to look back and know that was a decision that should have been made differently.”
Also in his interview, Beshear was asked if he himself was considering running for president in 2028.
“I haven’t ruled it out,” he said. “But I haven’t sat down and had that conversation with my family. I’m trying to fire up Democrats to be a voice of reason in the chaos. It is so important that we win right now.”
The Texas A&M Aggies started the season with varying expectations. After a disappointing season last year, this year was a critical chance for the Aggies to once again have another shot at putting it all together.
Earning a top-16 seed and hosting a regional, the Aggies stormed a comeback to take their opening game, leading to their winners bracket matchup against the Texas State Bobcats, who took down the higher-seeded USC Trojans.
Looking to be 2-0 after their second game, head coach Michael Ealrey’s squad found themselves in a close game with the Bobcats. A five-run sixth inning would change the tune of the game, and instead of being a nail-biter, it quickly turned into a blowout.
How One Error Changed Everything
The Aggies were in a close game against the Bobcats, which is a scary place to be against a team that can hit the ball as well as they do. In the fifth inning, Chris Hacopian would get an RBI to give his team a two-run cushion, and he would prove to be the catalyst once again an inning later.
With the bases loaded and two outs in the inning, Hacopian would hit a ground ball to Justin Vossos, the Bobcats’ shortstop. It looked like a routine play, one that would get his team out of the jam, but he would bobble the grounder. Hacopian, to his credit, shot out of a cannon out of the batter’s box and would beat out the play, extending the inning and scoring Terrence Kiel II.
With a three-run lead, the Aggies smelled blood in the water, and they took advantage of the mistake. The next batter, Nico Partida, would be hit by a pitch to score another. Jake Duer would follow that up with a two-RBI single, and Ben Royo would get an infield single of his own to cap off the five-run inning.
From that point on, the Aggies never looked back and would end up winning the game, 17-2, completely breaking the game wide open and dominating their way to a 2-0 start.
What This Means Now For the Undefeated Aggies
The Aggies are the only perfect team in their regional, and have advanced to the regional final for the first time in two years. Because of that, Earley and his squad get the massive advantage of only being tasked with playing one game on Sunday night.
With the Bobcats now heading to the losers’ bracket, they will get a rematch against the Trojans at 3 p.m. CT, with the loser eliminated from postseason play and the winner facing the Aggies at approximately 8 p.m. CT.
Since the Aggies are the only undefeated team left in the bracket, they will get a minimum of two chances to punch their ticket to the super regionals.
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Live Updates – Tennessee Lady Vols vs. Texas Tech Softball (WCWS)
Current Score: Tied 0-0
***Note: If you want the latest updates make sure to refresh the story***
First Inning:
Top: Karlyn Pickens strikes the first batter out. Texas Tech hits a single that went off the glove of Pickens. Jackie Lis comes to the plate. She advances the runner, but she grounds out to short. Pickens gets a massive strikeout to end the inning. Great job by the Lady Vols ace.
Bottom: Tennessee will now come to the plate. Kaitlyn Terry is the pitcher for the Red Raiders. Sophia Knight will start it off. Knight hits an infield single thanks to her speed. Here comes game one’s MVP, Elsa Morrison. Morrison strikes out. Ella Dodge hits a grounder to second, which gets the runner out, but she is safe at first. Emma Clarke hits a line out to Williams at second base to end the inning, as she had to make a vertical effort to bring that one down.
Second Inning:
Top: Here comes former Lady Vol Taylor Pannell. She pops out. Pickens will face the Red Raiders’ pitcher, who also hits. Pickens gets the Lady Vols off the field.
Bottom: Leach lines out to begin the inning. Makenzie Butt pops out to right field, which will be out No. 2. Gabby Leach is out to end the inning for the Lady Vols.
Third Inning:
Top: Quiroga lines out to begin the inning, and Pickens continues to move strongly. Halleman grounded out to second for out No. 2. Williams grounded out to third, which will get the Lady Vols off the field.
Bottom: Bella Faw singles to get on base. Holley grounds out, but Faw advances to second. Knight is struck by a pitch, and there are now two on base for the Lady Vols with only one out this inning. This gives Tennessee two on with a runner in scoring position. Here comes the Red Raiders’ ace, Nija Canady. Morrison fouls out. A wild pitch advances both runners. One at third and one at second now with two outs. Dodge is hit by a pitch, and bases are now loaded for the Lady Vols. Canady forced a full count for Clarke with bases loaded, and Clarke collided with Lis around first base, and the bases were left loaded. Texas Tech escapes.
Fourth Inning:
Top: Pickens forces a groundout. Lis grounds out, and the Lady Vols have put two away quickly. Pickens retires her 11th straight batter after forcing a groundout to second base.
Bottom: Leach reaches to begin the inning. It was via an error. She will be taken out of the game for a pinch runner. Saviya Morgan is on base. Makenzie Butt is up to bat. Canady strikes Butt out. Morgan gets picked off at second base. Gabby Leach hits a single to center field.
Pre Game Information
The Tennessee Lady Vols are set for their next matchup in the softball realm, as this is the second game they will play in the Women’s College World Series. In their first game, they were victorious against the Texas Longhorns, as they defeated the Longhorns by a score of 6-3 in a game in which they were viewed as the underdogs. Now they will have to play another great team with the hopes of continuing to hold on to their advantage of having no losses in a two-loss tournament. After today, only two of the eight teams that advanced and two of the six teams that remain will be able to say that.
The Lady Vols are up first out of the two games today, and they will be playing against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Red Raiders are entering this game with no losses after defeating the Mississippi State Bulldogs in their game. The Bulldogs entered the event as the biggest underdog, but the Red Raiders can compete with any of the teams at the event. They had to defeat a Florida Gators team that won a series against the Lady Vols to get to the Women’s College World Series.
This game will be one of the more anticipated games in the whole tournament, as this may not even be the only time that these two match up throughout the World Series. Regardless, the Tennessee Lady Vols will look for another big moment in the biggest game of their season thus far.
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