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Why did East Tennessee flood warnings seem too late during Hurricane Helene?

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Why did East Tennessee flood warnings seem too late during Hurricane Helene?


When Kriston Hicks first got an alert of a flash flood emergency at 9:20 a.m. Sept. 27, the home she shared with her 78-year-old grandfather in Hampton, Tennessee, was already doomed.

“I was wading through water to get my disabled grandfather into the van to leave because I had decided on my own that we needed to evacuate,” Hicks told Knox News in a text Oct. 3, the day after her home was demolished. “No one came to tell me. There is no siren in Hampton.”

The Doe River watershed in Carter County was one of several in East Tennessee that swelled to historic levels as remnants of Hurricane Helene drenched the southern Appalachian mountains in what the National Weather Service said was a once-in-a-millennium rainfall event.

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In the National Weather Service office in Morristown, which covers East Tennessee, meteorologists were coordinating with local emergency management officials in several counties to issue warnings.

So, why did the warnings seem to come too late for many people across the region?

The answer lies partly in how the National Weather Service issues flash flood warnings, with emergencies and wireless text alerts reserved for “imminent or ongoing” severe flooding, said Morristown meteorologist Brandon Wasilewski.

Three levels to flash flood warnings in East Tennessee

People reading NWS updates on social media in the days leading up to the generational flood, which claimed at least 12 lives in Tennessee, got a sense of the danger ahead.

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By Sept. 25, the NWS office in Morristown was already warning of “extreme risk of life-threatening flooding” along the Tennessee-North Carolina border as Helene moved through. At that point, the office had issued only a flood watch.

Residents in border counties did not get a wireless alert of emergency flash flooding until mid-morning on Sept. 27, when the flooding was already underway.

The National Weather Service needs to have confirmation of life-threatening flooding and “catastrophic damages occurring or imminent” before sending out a rare flash flood emergency, Wasilewski told Knox News.

Text alerts go out once the office adds a “considerable” or “catastrophic” tag to the flood warning, triggered by reports that “flash flooding capable of unusual severity of impact is imminent or ongoing,” Wasilewski said.

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One trigger for the highest “catastrophic” tag is that multiple water rescues have occurred. The service relies on local emergency managers to handle evacuation orders.

“We always want to try to be proactive,” Wasilewski said. “We’re the ones that send it out, but we want to make sure that it’s risen to that level.”

While the National Weather Service issues flood warnings for specific rivers, it does not have a mechanism to alert specific communities at special risk of flooding. That’s something the service would like to add in the future, Wasilewski said.

“We don’t have the capability at this time specifically, and that’s why we do rely on more of the local officials,” Wasilewski said. “Whenever we do have an event of this magnitude, this is something that we always try to review and try to learn from.”

The week before the storm was already a strange one for weather in East Tennessee. On Sept. 24, East Tennessee recorded its first ever September tornado, an EF-1 twister in Hancock County with 110 mph winds.

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The region also got 2-4 inches of rain before Helene even arrived as a tropical storm, which saturated the ground and caused fiercer runoff later on.

Some residents didn’t make much of flood warnings

Three rivers in particular carried a surge of floodwater from western North Carolina to East Tennessee – the French Broad, Nolichucky and Pigeon rivers. The hard-hit town of Erwin sits on the Nolichucky in Unicoi County.

Zully Manzanares, a Head Start program coordinator in Erwin, saw the flash flood warnings that began the night of Sept. 26 but didn’t realize the danger.

“We’ve gotten them before, but I don’t think the alerts were enough to make us realize like that it was going to be to the extent that it was,” Manzanares told Knox News. “The alerts were coming, but I don’t think that they were to the extreme that they needed to be so that people would have taken it more seriously.”

Daniel Dassow is a growth and development reporter focused on technology and energy. Phone 423-637-0878. Email daniel.dassow@knoxnews.com.

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Tennessee

ESPN Defines Tennessee Football's Areas of Opportunity Heading Into 2025 | Rocky Top Insider

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ESPN Defines Tennessee Football's Areas of Opportunity Heading Into 2025 | Rocky Top Insider


Josh Heupel Nico Iamaleava
Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava and HC Josh Heupel. Photo By Andrew Ferguson/Tennessee Athletics.

It doesn’t take long to flip the page in the world of college football.

Despite the 2024-25 college football season closing down last night with Ohio State’s national championship win over Notre Dame, folks around the industry are already flipping the page to the 2025-2026 season.

Tennessee enters the offseason with a fair number of departures but has also added a handful of nice pieces including Duke running back Star Thomas, Arizona offensive lineman Wendell Moe Jr., and Alabama wide receiver Amari Jefferson. The Vols return some key players such as quarterback Nico Iamaleava and cornerback Jermod McCoy but, like any team, have questions to answer this offseason.

Josh Heupel’s group accomplished a program-first feat by reaching the college football playoffs last season but even with a road loss to the eventual national champions, there’s still work to be done for Tennessee to take that next step – both on and off the field.

ESPN’s Chris Low looks at Tennessee’s road woes as an opportunity for improvement as the Vols head into the 2025 season.

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“The schedule gets a little more difficult with road games at Florida and Alabama, while Georgia comes to Knoxville. The next step for this program is playing better and more consistently on the road against quality teams,” Low wrote for ESPN. “The Vols have lost 22 in a row against top-10 teams on the road. So winning one of two in Gainesville and Tuscaloosa would go a long way toward opening up a pathway to the playoff. But at least nine wins seems realistic, which would be the fourth straight season hitting that mark under Heupel.”

More on RTI: Tennessee Football Falls In Final AP Poll Of 2024-25 Season

As mentioned, Tennessee’s got some big road challenges coming up next fall. That includes at Alabama, at Kentucky, and at Florida as the big three road rivals from the SEC. Alabama and Florida initially present a bigger challenge than Kentucky but the Vols will still need to handle business in Lexington to keep the train moving.

As far as on-the-field conversations go, Low believes that “maintaining that same depth will be key” on the defensive line for Tennessee.

“The Vols’ strength this season was their defensive line,” Low writes. “With some of the top performers and leaders from the unit departing, developing some of the younger ones and keeping that same mindset up front defensively will be vital if the Vols are going to make another playoff run.”

While some of the wind may have been taken out of the sails after the blowout loss to Ohio State, Tennessee still projects to have a Top 20 to Top 15 team in the nation heading into the 2025 season. Excitement from the fanbase will inevitably continue to ramp up throughout the spring and summer, too.

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There are a lot of conversations to be had this offseason but Low presents two solid improvement opportunities for Tennessee to look at in the coming months as the Vols aim to take that next step next fall.

We’ll be having those conversations every week from now until the start of the football season on Aug. 30 in Atlanta against Syracuse. Stay tuned to Rocky Top Insider for more Tennessee news, notes, and coverage throughout the offseason.



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Titans Could Cut Ties With Star Defender

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Titans Could Cut Ties With Star Defender


The Tennessee Titans actually find themselves in a rather solid financial situation heading into the NFL offseason, as they are projected to have around $50 million in cap room.

Still, that does not mean the Titans will not try to trim some salary.

Bleacher Report’s Alex Ballentine ran through a few potential cut candidates for Tennessee, and edge rusher Harold Landry made the list.

“Harold Landry’s nine sacks this season obscured the waning production that more advanced stats show,” Ballentine wrote. “In his second full season back from a torn ACL, Landry actually registered a career-low 9.2 pressure rate, per Sports Info Solutions. His final pre-injury season saw him rack up 62 total pressures as opposed to the 33 he had this season. Those underlying numbers point toward a player who is slowing down.”

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Cutting Landry would save the Titans a hefty $24.9 million in cap room, so it’s certainly possible that this is an avenue they could pursue. There were even rumors back at the trade deadline that Landry could be moved.

As Ballentine noted, Landry posted some impressive surface-level stats this season, racking up 71 tackles, nine sacks and four passes defended. However, he logged a subpar 49.6 pass-rushing grade over at Pro Football Focus, indicating that the veteran may be declining.

The 28-year-old, who played his collegiate football at Boston College, was selected by the Titans in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft.

It didn’t take Landry long to establish himself as one of Tennessee’s premier defenders, as he posted 68 tackles and nine sacks as soon as his second season.

Landry also made the Pro Bowl in 2021 after racking up 75 stops and 12 sacks, but tore his ACL the following year. He bounced back nicely in 2023, finishing with 70 tackles and 10.5 sacks, but the rebuilding Titans may want to part ways with Landry to save a nice wad of cash.

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Make sure you bookmark Tennessee Titans on SI for the latest news, exclusive interviews, film breakdowns and so much more!



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Harrison Bailey, former Tennessee football quarterback, transfers to Florida

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Harrison Bailey, former Tennessee football quarterback, transfers to Florida


Former Tennessee football quarterback Harrison Bailey is transferring to Florida, he announced Monday.

Bailey is heading for his fourth school. He spent the past two seasons at Louisville after playing for UNLV in the 2022 season after leaving Tennessee in the middle of the 2021 season.

Bailey has completed 63.2% of his passes for 1,190 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions in four seasons across three programs. He capped his Louisville career by starting in a 35-34 win against Washington in the Sun Bowl after starter Tyler Shough opted out. Bailey completed 16 of 25 passes for 164 yards and three touchdowns in the bowl victory.

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He has one season of eligibility left as a graduate transfer and likely is a depth addition for Florida, which returns star freshman DJ Lagway at quarterback.

Harrison Bailey is a former Tennessee football quarterback

Bailey entered the transfer portal in October 2021 after sitting as the third-string quarterback behind Hendon Hooker and Joe Milton in 2021 under coach Josh Heupel. He played in one game in the 2021 season, completing 3 of 7 passes for 16 yards and rushing for a touchdown against Tennessee Tech in September before entering the portal.

The Marietta, Georgia, native started the final three games as a freshman in the 2020 season, which featured a revolving door of quarterbacks under fired Vols coach Jeremy Pruitt. He was 48-for-68 passing for 578 yards and four touchdowns in six games in 2020.

He signed with Tennessee as a four-star recruit and the No. 99 overall prospect in the 2020 class, according to the 247Sports Composite.

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Florida is Harrison Bailey’s fourth school after playing at UNLV and Louisville

Bailey landed at UNLV after leaving Tennessee. He played in six games, with one start, in 2022, completing 30 of 58 passes for 318 yards and two touchdowns. He threw for 209 yards with two touchdowns on 16-for-27 passing in a win over Nevada in the season finale.

He entered the portal again in April 2023 and transferred to Louisville in May 2023.

The 6-foot-5, 230-pound Bailey threw for 278 yards and four touchdowns in two seasons with the Cardinals.

Mike Wilson covers University of Tennessee athletics. Email him at michael.wilson@knoxnews.com and follow him on X @ByMikeWilson or Bluesky @bymikewilson.bsky.social. If you enjoy Mike’s coverage, consider a digital subscription that will allow you access to all of it.

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