Kentucky
Bama Basketball Breakdown: #17 Kentucky
What a win this past Wednesday in Tuscaloosa – I would be remiss if I didn’t lead things off with acknowledging how epic of a game that was with Florida the other night. The Tide trailed by as many as nine points, on multiple occasions, with less than ten minutes to go, but the fellas just never wavered. They made all of the clutch plays necessary to come from behind and win a game that we all might just look back on and agree was the difference in whether or not Alabama ended up cutting down the nets for a third regular season title in four years.
But in order for that to be a topic of discussion, the 13th-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (19-7, 11-2 SEC; NET: 5; Kenpom: 6) will have to finish off this season the right way, which will be a tall task with the remaining schedule. In the next four games, Alabama will take on a quartet of NCAA Tournament teams – three of which are ranked – before closing out the season with disappointing (but recently ascending) Arkansas. And three of those four will be away from home. So, Nate Oats’ bunch should be ready for more down-to-the-wire finishes as we make the final turn on the 2024 regular season.
The next game up for the Tide should be another shootout as Alabama heads to historic Rupp Arena to take on the 17th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats (18-8, 8-5 SEC; NET: 24; Kenpom: 23). It’s been a roller-coaster of a season for the ‘Cats, who have the most talented roster in the conference but just can’t seem to consistently make the plays necessary to string together wins. This past week is a perfect example – Kentucky went on the road and beat Auburn in a game that they controlled from start to finish, and then turned around and loss at the buzzer to middling LSU a few nights later. Their defense (and injuries, to an extent) has been the main source of problems for them, as they clock in at 78th in the country in Defensive Efficiency.
The offense, however, is elite (9th in Offensive Efficiency). Much like Alabama’s track-meet with Florida a few nights ago, expect this one to be another fun, high-flying affair between two of the best offenses in basketball:
Kentucky/Alabama O/U is 179.5. Highest over/under in college basketball since 2019.
— David Sisk (@CoachDavidSisk) February 23, 2024
It’s almost always a good one whenever the two winningest programs in SEC history meet, and this one has the potential to be an all-timer.
The Roster
Starting Five
D.J. Wagner: G, 6-3, 10.5 PPG, 3.4 APG, 1.8 RPG
Antonio Reeves: G, 6-4, 19.7 PPG, 1.5 APG, 4.3 RPG
Justin Edwards: F, 6-8, 8.1 PPG, 0.8 APG, 3.4 RPG
Adou Thiero: F, 6-6, 7.7 PPG, 1.1 APG, 5.6 RPG
Ugonna Onyenso: F, 6-11, 4.1 PPG, 0.2 APG, 5.2 RPG
Off of the Bench
Rob Dillingham: G, 6-2, 15.0 PPG, 3.8 APG, 2.9 RPG
Reed Sheppard: G, 6-3, 11.9 PPG, 4.1 APG, 4.3 RPG
Tre Mitchell: C, 6-9, 12.0 PPG, 3.1 APG, 7.5 RPG
Aaron Bradshaw: F, 7-0, 5.3 PPG, 0.3 APG, 3.8 RPG
Zvonimir Ivisic: F, 7-2, 4.4 PPG, 0.5 APG, 2.6 RPG
As I alluded to earlier, it’s been a weird year for John Calipari and his Wildcats. On one hand, this team plays almost nothing like Cal’s ‘Cats from the rest of his tenure. He decided this year to play a more up-tempo, free-flowing style – you know, kind of like Nate Oats – after years of diminishing returns from his more 90’s-2000’s era style that he won big with for about a decade in Lexington. And it has unlocked the offense for sure – this is one of the best shooting teams in Kentucky history (2nd in the country at 40.5% from 3P%). But it’s taken some time for him and the team to finally adjust to how to play defense in the modern game.
On the other hand, Cal has simultaneously gotten back to his roots on the recruiting trail. The Kentucky teams of the previous five years or so simply didn’t have the same talent level as many of the groups that he ran out during the 2010s. Oscar Tshiebwe was one of the best players in college ball the past two years, but that was in part because he was an older player who hung around because he doesn’t fit the modern-day NBA. It’s not like he was some one-and-done superstar talent. The 2023 recruiting class was the unanimous #1 class in the country, and some were even calling it the best recruiting class of all time – a quartet of five-star McDonald’s All-Americans (Wagner, Edwards, Bradshaw, and Dillingham), a highly-rated four-star legacy player (Sheppard), and a Croatian sensation in a seven-footer who can shoot (Ivisic).
So, it was supposed to be a return to the old ways in roster building while Calipari reinvented himself with his philosophy and scheme. But the results have been mixed. Reed Sheppard – the four-star legacy – has been arguably Kentucky’s best player, certainly among the freshmen. He’s been absolutely lights out as a shooter (52.2%/50.9%/81.1%) and is second on the team with a 22.5% AST%. And the lowest rated of the five stars, Rob Dillingham, has been the guy recently who has helped elevate the ‘Cats after some midseason struggles (48.6%/44.5%/74.3%; team-leading 29.8% AST%). The big three of DJ Wagner, Justin Edwards, and Aaron Bradshaw, who were all top-five players in last year’s class, have each been varying levels of disappointing.
Wagner remains the starting point guard, but his scoring hasn’t been anything special (41.0%/27.3%/73.6%) and he’s only third on the team in AST% (20.1%) despite being one of the highest-usage players on the squad. Justin Edwards was supposed to be an elite two-way wing. Well, the defense hasn’t been there at all, his scoring numbers are merely ok (45.9%/31.1%/75.7%), and he’s not very effective in rebounding (8.4% REB%) or as a distributor (6.1% AST%). And Aaron Bradshaw has been a flat-out bust. Any of these three guys could get it together or have a light turn on today, but for the season as a whole, they certainly haven’t been who Kentucky fans thought they would be.
Now, Antonio Reeves has been a stud and will almost certainly be first-team All-SEC. He’s a walking bucket (49.5%/44.4%/87.4%). And Kentucky’s seen some real progress defensively since they’ve gone to sophomores Adou Thiero and Ugonna Onyenso in the frontcourt. Tre Mitchell was the starter for most of the season at the five, but he’s been plagued with back and shoulder injuries recently. If Kentucky can get him back to 100% soon, he’s a really good offensive player (49.7%/33.3%/73.1%), so they could be really dangerous with the development of the other two.
Three Keys to Victory
- The Three-Point Line. Alabama (38.0% 3P% – 13th in the country) and Kentucky (40.5% – 2nd) are two of the most electrifying shooting teams in college basketball. Whoever does a better job of chasing shooters off of the three-point line will likely end up winning this game. The Tide certainly can’t afford to go 2/18 in the first half again like the guys did the other night against Florida.
- Offensive Rebounding. Alabama hit a bit of a lull in OREB% rates at the start of conference play in January, but Nate Oats has really gotten the guys back to scrapping it out on the glass. The Tide is back up to 21st in the country in OREB% after the most recent masterclass against Florida, where the smaller Tide corralled an incredible 21 offensive boards against a really big Gator squad. And they needed every last one of them to win the game. Kentucky is 241st in opponent OREB% allowed this season, and just gave up a dozen of them to LSU the other night. If Alabama can keep hustling and fighting for those offensive boards, the Tide will be nearly impossible to stop on the offensive side of the ball. Because, as they showed the other night, the threes are going to fall eventually if you keep giving the guys looks.
- Let’em Run. If Calipari wants to stick with his new philosophy and turn this game into a track-meet, Nate Oats will be more than happy to oblige him. Teams that try to match Alabama’s pace historically don’t do very well since Oats rolled into town. Trying to slow the Tide down has been a much more successful strategy. The guys are just so comfortable running the floor and getting high quality shots off early in the shot clock.
This should be another barnburner in Lexington today. The big thing Tide fans should be looking for pregame is the status of Latrell Wrightsell. He suffered a concussion on Monday in practice and was held out of the Florida game (which did allow Sam Walters the opportunity to step up – and boy did he). Oats likes to play injuries close to the chest, so your guess is as good as mine on whether or not Trelly goes today.
Can Alabama earn its biggest road win of the season and with a rare victory in Rupp? The game will tip-off at 3:00 PM CST and will be televised by CBS. Kentucky is favored by 2.5.
The 2024 high school basketball season is set to get underway in the coming days and the state of Kentucky once again features a litany of talent-rich programs.
While the Bluegrass may not rival the likes of Florida or California when it comes to national rankings, it’s still a state that prides itself on the hardwood and continuously churns out top prospects.
Below are the top 25 teams in the state of Kentucky entering the 2024-25 basketball season, as of Nov. 18, per the On3 Massey Ratings.
The On3 Massey Ratings, officially used during the BCS era, is a model that ranks sports teams by analyzing game outcomes, strength of schedule, and margin of victory.
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Lexington Catholic holds the top spot and is coming off a 28-win season last time out. The Knights won at least eight games in a row three separate times last season and are poised for another impressive campaign this winter. The No. 118 team nationally, Lex Cath’s defense ranks No. 2 in the state preseason, per the Massey Ratings. A Dec. 7 matchup against preseason No. 2 Covington Catholic will be appointment viewing.
Covington Catholic is the only team to own a top-five offensive and defensive rating in the state ahead of the season, per the Massey Ratings. The Colonels won 24 games a season ago and will look to make a statement early this time around, as their first six games are all against ranked foes.
The highest-ranked of last season’s Sweet 16 participants, Great Crossing is once again expected to be dominant in and around Georgetown this winter. Led by top-30 prospect and Kentucky center commit Malachi Moreno, the Warhawks, who lost in the state semifinals last time around, are expected to be a force on both sides of the ball. Their offensive and defensive rating both check in inside the top 10 in-state, per the Massey Ratings.
To no surprise, Trinity is a top program out in Louisville. The Shamrocks lost in the Sweet 16 Quarterfinals last season and won 27 games. Heading the roster is junior four-star shooting guard Jayden Johnson, a top-100 prospect. Per the Massey Ratings, Trinity has the top-ranked in-state defensive rating. A matchup against No. 5 Louisville Male early next month looms large.
Louisville Male sits right behind Trinity and, as always, will challenge the Shamrocks every step of the way this season. The Bulldogs won 21 games last season and are expected to be potent offensively for the 2024-25 campaign. They rank No. 4 offensively in-state, per the Massey Ratings. The schedule will be rigorous at the beginning for Male, as it will take on Trinity, Dupont Manual and Eastern early on next month.
After winning 25 games a season ago, Bowling Green is considered a top contender in the Bluegrass once again this season. The Purples have a top-15 offense and the No. 10 defense in the state, per the Massey Ratings. Paired with a favorable schedule, BG will be a tough out if it can make it to Rupp Arena come March.
North Oldham rattled off an 11-game winning streak a season ago as the Mustangs finished 24-6 on the year. The No. 8 offense in the state, per the Massey Ratings, resides in Goshen preseason. A Dec. 5 clash against No. 10 Ballard will serve as an early measuring stick. It is currently Oldham’s lone ranked matchup until January.
Lyon County won the state championship last season and is back for more this winter. The Lions were led by now-Kentucky Wildcats guard Travis Perry — who became the state’s all-time leading scorer during his senior season. While the workload left by Perry is impossible to fully pick up, Lyon Co. is still expected to do damage to opposing defenses this season, as its offensive rating is No. 2 in the state, per the Massey Ratings.
St. Xavier is yet another elite program out of Louisville that’s coming off an impressive 2023-24 season. The Tigers won 29 games and will look to reach 30-plus this time around. They check in right behind Lyon County with the No. 3 offensive rating in the state, and also like the Lions, they have a defensive rating that ranks outside the top 50, per the Massey Ratings.
The preseason No. 1 offensive rating in the state belongs to Ballard, yet another Louisville power. Unlike the rest of the top 10, the Bruins are coming off a bit of a down 2023-24 season, as they won just 13 games. The Massey Ratings predict a big bounce back this winter, and they’ll have a chance to kick things off with a bang thanks to December matchups against North Oldham and Frederick Douglass.
Teams 11-25 in Kentucky High School Basketball Rankings
11. Evangel Christian
12. Dupont Manual
13. George Rogers Clark
14. Warren Central
15. De Sales
16. Frederick Douglass
17. Newport
18. Cooper
19. Oldham County
20. Ashland Blazer
21. Harlan County
22. Woodford County
23. Eastern
24. Christian Academy
25. Bryan Station
Kentucky
Kentucky knew Cooper Flagg's late-game turnover was coming: “That's just a smart guy, smart coach.”
Not once, but twice did Mark Pope call out Cooper Flagg‘s spinning tendencies when looking to create scoring opportunities with the ball in his hands. And that’s just what we saw in The Journey, the Kentucky head coach first bringing up the star freshman’s habit at halftime, telling the Wildcats to attack those moments with two hands when they inevitably present themselves.
“If Cooper gets in there and starts spinning around, move your feet, move your feet, move your feet. And if you’re going for the ball, go in there with two hands,” Pope told the team down 46-37 at the half. “They’ll be less inclined to call a foul. Stick your nose in there. If you’re coming help defense, go in with two hands.”
He brought it up again down the stretch with Kentucky fighting to pull off the upset win, tied at 72-72 with just 26 seconds to go. Duke had the ball with a chance to throw a dagger, almost certainly putting it in the hands of Flagg to make it happen.
Pope’s response?
“If I get Cooper on an iso, we’re coming and we’re rotating down. As he starts to spin, we’re coming,” he said once again. “This could either be a full-body or two hands — we are not paying him out with a foul. Go in with two hands and take the ball. If Cooper goes to work and spins, we should have a body there to take the ball. Yes? Let’s go boys.”
You know the rest of the story, Flagg falling right into Kentucky’s trap. The likely No. 1 pick drives on the left elbow, defended by Andrew Carr. He goes between the legs twice, then spins from left to right with Otega Oweh waiting for him with an outstretched hand. The junior guard makes contact with the ball and secures it with two, just as Pope requested, then takes it coast to coast for the foul and free throws on the other end.
It was the game-winning sequence, putting the Wildcats up two before forcing another Flagg turnover to go up three, then five to wrap up the upset victory.
How did it all happen? Kentucky saw it pop up on film going into the matchup, then saw the trend continue as things unfolded inside State Farm Arena. It was a real-time adjustment called by the head coach — one of many throughout the game, but inarguably the biggest.
“It was something he noticed in real time. He did it a couple of times during the game. We watched it a little bit on film, all of our fours were watching film on him,” Lamont Butler told KSR. “That’s just a smart guy, smart coach. He knew what was going to happen and it helped us out. Otega was able to make a big play and help us get the win.”
“Going into the game, the scouting report, part of that is knowing players’ go-to moves and moves that counter very well,” Brandon Garrison added. “I feel like he was doing that all game, so we knew as players that he was going to make that spin and Otega would be right there to make the game-winning steal.”
Pope also stressed improved transition defense and ball screen coverage among the mid-game keys to a win, but it was his ability to call his shot with Flagg that has stolen the attention — and rightfully so. It’s like when Tony Romo first started calling NFL games for CBS and correctly predicted the plays before they happened. There’s an element of magic to it for the casual fan, but for those participating in the action, it’s about reading the situation and coming up with a response.
Fortunately for Kentucky, Pope is pretty darn good at it.
“It feels great. If you stick to the plan, stick to the scouting report, good things happen like that. We’re going to keep sticking with it,” Garrison said. “… Coach Pope is a great coach.”
“The way Coach Pope does it is very special. He really helped us at that point,” Butler added. “… That’s going to be great for us throughout the year.”
CINCINNATI — The Bearcats hit the road for the first time this season on Tuesday night at Northern Kentucky. Cincinnati lost in this exact scenario two years ago amidst a brutal offensive showing in the second half, but they are ready to avenge that performance with the best UC roster Wes Miller’s had.
UC enters with a 92.9% chance to win the game on ESPN’s Matchup Predictor. The Bearcats are ranked 11th on KenPom, while Northern Kentucky is 186th (highest-ranked UC opponent yet).
“I was pleased with the defensive effort to start the game,” Miller said about his team following Friday’s 86-49 win over Nicholls State. “I was pleased with the defensive effort to start the second half. And there was some good stuff going on.”
Cincinnati is 2-1 all-time against NKU ahead of the 7 p.m. ET Tuesday tip-off on ESPN+.
Will Simas Lukošius keep shooting over 70% from three-point land? Probably not, but Cincinnati is going to be a firm national title contender if he does.
So far, he’s hit 10-14 triple tries to rank tied for third nationally at 71.4% overall. The stroke looks as clean as any shot I’ve seen in person, mixed with the best shape Lukošius has been in during his college career. History says he can’t shoot this well on this type of volume, but above 40% over the full season is very plausible at this rate.
“I don’t feel like he’s forcing the shot at all,” Miller said about his top shooter. “I can’t think of one time when he forced a shot. In fact, early in the game, as he was coming off the floor for the first media timeout, I told him to shoot more. I thought he passed a couple of shots up. He had one he passed up in the corner drove in and turned it over by trying to get a lob to Aziz [Bandaogo]. Those are the turnovers that I can live with because they are aggressive, but he is such a damn good shooter.
“He hasn’t been forcing them, and I think he’s taking the right shots. I believe you have to give credit to the other guys as well because the ball is popping around. You look down tonight and we have 18 assists. The ball is moving around, and there are a lot of other good players on the floor as well. Simas [Lukosius] is not going to shoot 80% this year, because nobody’s ever done that. I want him to do that but that won’t happen. He is going to have a great year, because he’s a really good player, and he continues to improve.”
Off the catch, dribble, and in transition, Lukošius is hitting every type of deep shot through three games, all while he and Jizzle James lead the offense with 5.3 assists per game each.
He’s been the second-most efficient offensive player in the Big 12 so far, posting a whopping 40.3 Player Efficiency Rating and a scorching 92.9% effective field goal rate (fifth nationally). Now, he gets to test that shot outside the friendly confines of Fifth Third Arena. A place where UC shot 28.6% from deep two years ago.
The Lithuanian is showing the end of last season wasn’t just some hot streak—it’s who he can consistently be as a college player. We’ll see if the full-season cement can set on this trajectory.
Time will ultimately tell who takes over the top perimeter guarding role on this Bearcats roster, but Jizzle James has led the way so far.
John Newman III looks like he’s rubbed off on the stout young guard. He’s notched an 82.4 defensive rating this season (16th-best in the Big 12), a big improvement from his 104.6 freshman mark. That’s been showcased with strong footwork on defense and complete control of his on-ball physicality (zero fouls committed in three games).
NKU doesn’t boast any daunting guard matchups like Nicholls’ Rob Brown. The Norse’s leading scorers are both guards, but neither are shooting over 42% from the floor.
“Jizzle James is really improved, and I think that’s so obvious guys,” Miller said on Friday. “He was really, really good on defense tonight. I mean, not only did he defeat ball screens, but I don’t think anybody hit him with the ball screen all night. I mean, he was special, so I was pleased with that, and I could keep going down the line, but I thought Jizzle had a really nice night.”
NKU is bottom-10 nationally in scoring average (57 PPG) and has KenPom’s 300th-ranked offense by efficiency. It should be a clamping field day for James and his teammates.
If healthy, Cincinnati has a few different avenues to hit a high ceiling this coming spring, and these early signs from James are great indicators they can keep climbing up the CBB hierarchy.
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