An alarming change in the forecast now shows the potential for a dangerous hurricane to strike the west coast of Florida later this week with damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge and torrential rain.

The budding cyclone was designated Tropical Depression Fourteen on Saturday morning by the National Hurricane Center, but it’s now expected to rapidly intensify into a hurricane by early to middle of next week, eventually reaching Florida on Wednesday.

The forecast with TD14 has evolved quite a bit in the last 24 hours, showing greater potential to be a more significant storm.

“I don’t like the way this is developing at all, and it’s going to happen pretty quickly,” says FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “It just means the odds are significantly higher (Saturday) than they were (Friday) that a memorable, impactful storm is going to impact Florida in the days ahead.” 

What’s the latest with Tropical Depression 14?

Tropical Depression Fourteen is about 240 miles northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. It has peak winds of 35 mph and is moving northeast at 3 mph.

What’s the forecast for Tropical Depression 14?

TD Fourteen is forecast to pick up speed early next week and turn to the east/northeast across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, reaching hurricane strength on Monday with rapid strengthening likely during the early part of the week, according to the NHC. Once it reaches tropical storm strength, it’ll take the name Milton.

“The GFS (model) and the European (model) have a significant storm offshore (of Florida on Wednesday),” Norcross said. “How significant is this? Yes, it could be a hurricane. Decent chance. And these models, they say hurricane. Could it be a strong hurricane? Category two, Category three. We can’t even rule that out.”

He added: “There is really no good news in any of these various computer forecasts, but here we are.”

The NHC echoes those concerns.

“Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week,” the agency said Saturday morning. 

How much rain is expected?

Forecast models show the heaviest rainfall is expected to be from the Interstate 4 corridor and southward, where a widespread area could see 5-8 inches of rainfall over the next week, with some areas nearing a foot of rain.

Because much of the rain will be spread out over several days, widespread flooding is not anticipated, but where thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same region, issues could arise.

The expected impacted region is farther south from where Hurricane Helene made landfall last week, so the hardest-hit areas of the Big Bend will not receive as much rainfall as locations such as Fort Myers, Orlando, Tampa and Miami.

In addition to the rainfall, rough seas will lead to threats of increased rip currents and erosion along beaches – a pattern that will continue well into next week.

“The bottom line is we do have the potential for a significant, problematic, impactful storm coming toward Florida Tuesday, Wednesday-ish of next week,” Norcross said.

What’s to be expected with the rest of hurricane season?

The waters in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf remain plenty warm for development, and October is typically the month with the most landfalls in South Florida.

According to NOAA historical data, more than 60% of landfalls in the region occur after the climatological peak of the hurricane season, which is Sept. 10.

The latest date a hurricane has ever hit the Sunshine State is Nov. 21, when Hurricane Kate slammed into the Florida Panhandle in 1985.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Hurricane Kirk in the central Atlantic and Hurricane Leslie in the eastern Atlantic, but neither poses a direct threat to any landmasses over the next week.

There is also a new disturbance off the coast of Africa that is being tracked.

As much of the western Florida Peninsula, including the Tampa Bay area, recovers from massive storm surge damage associated with Hurricane Helene, the next hurricane threat for the United States is also focused on Florida. Here’s what we know right now about the next storm.

At the time of writing on Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean (Kirk and Leslie) and a system in the western Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Kirk is a powerful, major hurricane, but it nor Leslie will threaten the U.S. However, the system in the Gulf of Mexico is a different story. NHC’s morning discussion said, “Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually becoming better organized.” The storm has a 70% chance of further development within the next two days, and a 90% chance within the next five days. My experience tells me that we could be looking at a tropical depression or named storm (Milton) later today or Sunday.

We use several models when evaluating these threats, but I will focus on the American GFS and European models, respectively. Both of them are in strong consensus that the storm could move towards the western Florida Peninsula with a potential landfall by the middle of the week. NHC warned, “By early next week, the system is forecast to move faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely.”

At this point, I will not anchor to any single model solution outcomes. However, several outcomes show that the storm could intensify into a hurricane and potentially very strong one. Weather expert Michael Ventrice makes this point in the post above, but I caution you that is only one of the potential outcomes shown. His greater point is one that also worries me. When a storm like this gets into the likely climate-charged, abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico, I am always on high alert. If you are in Tampa Bay, Ft. Myers or anywhere along the Florida Peninsula or the Keys, I advise you to pay close attention to this storm. More immediately, the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico is likely to be affected.

There are several things that concern me about this potential storm. Irrespective of name (and it probably will get one), it is going to produce a significant amount of rainfall in Florida. Like Helene, it appears that rainfall could inundate Florida well ahead of the eventual tropical storm or hurricane. This is a recipe for flooding. Much of Florida is already recovering from Helene so this is the last thing they need. Also, both models suggest a landfall in a region spanning Tampa Bay to Fort Myers. There is still uncertainty, but the range of possibilities start to narrow since we are within the five-day window. With current track projections, even places like Orlando, Jacksonville, Savannah, Miami, and the Bahamas should be paying attention.

Not surprisingly, the misinformation machine has been firing on all cylinders after Hurricane Helene. It is not unusual to have hurricanes in September or October. In fact, the peak of the Atlantic season is in September. The 2024 season was always projected to be quite active due to anomalously warm sea surface temperatures, La Nina and other factors. That’s it, that’s the explanation.

Data Skrive

At 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, Phil Mafah and the Clemson Tigers (3-1) take on the Florida State Seminoles (1-4).

The game between the Tigers and Seminoles will be available on ESPN.

Keep up with college football all season on FOX Sports.

Learn more about the Clemson Tigers and the Florida State Seminoles.

How to Watch Clemson vs. Florida State

• When: Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 7:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida
• Live Box Score: FOX Sports

Read More About This Game

• Clemson vs. Florida State Predictions

Clemson vs. Florida State: Head to Head

• Clemson and Florida State have been a balanced matchup in the past two meetings, with two wins, two losses, and a tie for each team.
• Each team has covered in one game in the past two matchups with those games outpacing the total on one occasion.
• Clemson has scored 1 fewer point than Florida State in their past two games.

Clemson’s 2024 Schedule

Clemson 2024 Stats & Insights

• Clemson is totaling 457.0 yards per game on offense, which ranks 31st in the FBS. Defensively, the Tigers rank 100th, giving up 402.8 yards per game.
• Clemson is totaling 277.8 passing yards per game offensively this year (31st in the FBS), and is giving up 218.5 passing yards per game (75th) on the other side of the ball.
• The Tigers own the 83rd-ranked defense this year (25.8 points allowed per game), and they’ve been better on offense, ranking 14th-best with 42.0 points per game.
• From an offensive standpoint, the Tigers rank 54th in the FBS with 179.3 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, they rank 104th in rushing yards allowed per contest (184.3).
• Clemson is posting a 38.3% third-down percentage on offense, which ranks them 80th in the FBS. On the other side of the ball, the defense ranks 45th, surrendering a 34.0% third-down conversion rate.
• With nine forced turnovers (17th in the FBS) against three turnovers committed (16th in the FBS), the Tigers’ +6 turnover margin is the 10th-best in college football.

Clemson 2024 Key Players

Florida State’s 2024 Schedule

Florida State 2024 Stats & Insights

• Florida State has not been getting things done offensively, ranking 10th-worst with 278.2 total yards per game. It has been better on defense, surrendering 382.0 total yards per contest (91st-ranked).
• In terms of passing, Florida State ranks 86th in the FBS (213.0 passing yards per game) and 73rd on defense (216.2 passing yards allowed per game).
• The Seminoles rank eighth-worst in points per game (15.2), but they’ve been more effective defensively, ranking 76th in the FBS with 24.6 points allowed per contest.
• The Seminoles’ rushing offense has been bottom-25 this season, compiling 65.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks fourth-worst in the FBS. On the defensive side of the ball, they rank 95th with 165.8 rushing yards surrendered per contest.
• Florida State has been unproductive on both sides of the ball on third down this season, ranking 17th-worst in third-down conversion percentage (29.9%) and 10th-worst in third-down percentage allowed (47.2%).
• The Seminoles have fared poorly in terms of turnovers, as their turnover margin of -5 is 16th-worst in the FBS.

Florida State 2024 Key Players

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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