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Illustration by Candice Curtis / Eclipse Sportswire / Coady Media

The road to Kentucky Derby 2025 draws even closer to Churchill Downs Saturday with two of the most productive preps for finding Derby winners: the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby. These million-dollar races have combined to produce 31 Kentucky Derby winners since 1953.

After these races, the Kentucky Derby starting gate will be more than half full according to math and history. 

The first of these premiere preps is the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park. Ten 3-year-old colts have been entered for the chance at 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points and the $1 million purse. Post time for the Florida Derby is scheduled for 6:42 p.m. EDT.

The 8-5 morning line favorite is Sovereignty, the Fountain of Youth (G2) winner trained by Bill Mott. The Into Mischief colt unveiled a powerful closing move in his juvenile season that he proved still has a dangerous kick in his first start as a 3-year-old. Jockey Manny Franco replaces his regular rider, Junior Alvarado, after he suffered a shoulder injury last week. 

Bob Baffert ships Madaket Road to Gulfstream for a rare Florida appearance on the Derby trail. Madaket Road was last seen finishing behind Coal Battle in the Rebel (G2) and opts for this spot instead of the Arkansas Derby for the son of Quality Road. Original rider Tyler Gaffalione also suffered an injury this week, so Mike Smith will also ship in to take the last-minute ride. 

Brad Cox sends Holy Bull (G2) runner-up Tappan Street back into the fray after skipping the Fountain of Youth. He got a wide trip in the Holy Bull, which was only his second lifetime start, but closed well enough to show his talent. 

Disruptor steps up into stakes company and stretches out in distance in his third career start for Todd Pletcher. The $1.5 million Gun Runner colt ran away from the field in his last start at Gulfstream, a seven-furlong maiden special weight.

Get to know all of the Florida Derby contenders with Matt Shifman, who also provides odds and tips. 

TV coverage of both the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby will be on CNBC and streaming on Peacock beginning at 6 p.m. EDT. FS2 will broadcast the Arkansas Derby and Oaklawn undercard stakes as part of America’s Day at the Races beginning at 4 p.m. EDT. Finally, FanDuel TV will have all of the stakes action from Gulfstream and Oaklawn as part of its daily racing coverage.

Free Stakes PPs • Gulfstream entries • Track trends  

Here are the top lifetime speed figures for the Florida Derby entrants.

No.	Horse	Beyer*	TFUS*	Brisnet	HRN
1	Neoequos	91	116	101	117
2	Cool Intentions	77	98	96	110
3	Smoken Boy	68	92	75	90
4	Disruptor	92	115	94	117
5	Indecisiveness	79	102	84	105
6	Jimmy’s Dailys	85	106	89	110
7	Enterdadragon	76	104	91	111
8	Madaket Road	90	115	96	116
9	Tappan Street	87	116	99	118
10	Sovereignty	95	113	99	117

*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are presented courtesy of Daily Racing Form.

Pace makes the race

TimeformUS projects a swift, pressured pace in the Florida Derby, contested by Neoequos from the rail, Disruptor and Madaket Road. Madaket Road will be blinkers-off for this race, but he will still be forwardly-placed from his outside-ish post. Jimmy’s Dailys has run best when quick out of the gate so he, too will make for the lead.

Tucking in behind the pacesetters will be Cool Intentions and Tappan Street, whose rider Luis Saez will most likely follow Madaket Road into an outside pressing spot. Smoken Boy and Indecisivness will take up mid-pack spots early. Sovereignty and Enterdadragon will settle in at the back of the pack, ready to unfurl closing moves. Madaket Road can best take advantage of the speed-friendly Gulfstream Park surface as he has experience on the notoriously fast Santa Anita strip. Tappan Street can improve on his Holy Bull performance and is fresh off a 56-day layoff. Sovereignty will be closing best and just has to pick off the tiring leaders.

HRN tips & best bets

HRN‘s Ed DeRosa thinks the favorite Sovereignty is tough, but he is taking a risk and keying a long shot in the Florida Derby.

“Enterdadragon might look short on class, but his numbers are comparable with others behind Sovereignty,” Ed said. “His lone dirt start was a one-turn mile at Gulfstream, where he rushed up after an awkward start. I’ll gamble on this one.”

Disruptor is one of three horses Todd Pletcher hopes will make it to the Kentucky Derby, though time is running out for one of his 3-year-olds to make the case for a rose run. 

Mike Shutty, the creator of Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener, has identified a top win and top value play with a morning line of 5-1.

“Luis Saez will secure the best position in this race with Tappan Street sitting just 2 lengths off the pace in the early going and then just a length back turning for home, getting the first jump on Sovereignty as he gets by all the pace leaders,” he said.

Get his take on Sovereignty, Madaket Road, and the Florida Derby undercard stakes in the Super Screener. It’s just $97 for weekly analysis and it includes the entire Triple Crown.

In this week’s Ron Flatter Racing Pod, David Levitch, the Paddock Prince, focuses on the Kentucky Derby preps as well as some tips for the Kentucky Oaks qualifiers this week. Also on the podcast is a heartfelt tribute to the late San Diego Union-Tribune columnist Bryce Miller. 

Head-to-Head handicapping panelists Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis agree on three horses, but that’s where their opinions split for their final picks. 

Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman recap Sierra Leone’s upset defeat in the New Orleans Classic as well as give their plays for the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby.

No.	Silks	Horse / Sire	Rating	Trainer / Jockey	Last start	Morn. line
1		Neoequos Neolithic	7.04	Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Edgard J. Zayas Advertisement	3rd, 2025 Fountain of Youth G2	10-1
Last race		3rd, 2025 Fountain of Youth G2
2		Cool Intentions Authentic	5.87	Jorge Delgado Javier J. Castellano	5th, 2025 Mucho Macho Man LS	20-1
Last race		5th, 2025 Mucho Macho Man LS
3		Smoken Boy Catholic Boy	0.00	Cheryl Winebaugh	6th, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)	30-1
Last race		6th, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)
4		Disruptor Gun Runner	5.92	Todd A. Pletcher Irad Ortiz, Jr.	1st, GP MSW (3/1/25-R6)	4-1
Last race		1st, GP MSW (3/1/25-R6)
5		Indecisiveness Decisive Moment	5.45	Ruben Sierra Advertisement Jorge Ruiz	3rd, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)	30-1
Last race		3rd, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)
6		Jimmy’s Dailys Vekoma	5.34	Brian A. Lynch Joel Rosario	2nd, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)	12-1
Last race		2nd, GP Alw OC (2/27/25-R8)
7		Enterdadragon Outwork	5.12	Jose Francisco D’Angelo Dylan Davis Advertisement	2nd, 2025 Colonel Liam LS	30-1
Last race		2nd, 2025 Colonel Liam LS
8		Madaket Road Quality Road	6.42	Bob Baffert Mike E. Smith	2nd, 2025 Rebel G2	7-2
Last race		2nd, 2025 Rebel G2
9		Tappan Street Into Mischief	6.39	Brad H. Cox Luis Saez	2nd, 2025 Holy Bull G3	5-1
Last race		2nd, 2025 Holy Bull G3
10		Sovereignty Into Mischief	7.36	William I. Mott Advertisement Manuel Franco	1st, 2025 Fountain of Youth G2	8-5
Last race		1st, 2025 Fountain of Youth G2

The Grade 1, 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby (G1) is the richest race run at Oaklawn, with a $1.5 million purse. It offers 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points to the top five finishers. This year’s race has drawn nine 3-year-old colts, including Rebel (G2) winner Coal Battle. Post time for the Arkansas Derby is scheduled for 7:48 p.m. EDT.

The buzz horse and morning-line favorite at 7-2 in the Arkansas Derby is Bob Baffert’s Cornucopian, a son of Into Mischief who steps up big time in his second career start. Cornucopian sizzled in his maiden victory at Oaklawn on Rebel day going six furlongs. This Prospect Watch standout is a half-sibling to Grade 1 winner Guarana and was a $1.1 million Keeneland yearling purchase.

7-5 second choice Coal Battle comes into this off a four-race, all-stakes win streak. He ran down Madaket Road in the Rebel to clinch his spot in the Kentucky Derby, so a win is not required here but will be highly anticipated for the Lonnie Briley trainee. 

Four other horses from the Rebel Stakes return here, including Southwest winner Speed King and Sandman, who looks for a win after hitting the board in each of his last two stakes starts.

Matt Shifman has full-field stats and analysis for the Arkansas Derby. 

Here are the top speed figures for the Arkansas Derby entrants.

No.	Horse	Beyer*	TFUS*	Brisnet	HRN
1	Brereton’s Baytown	72	96	88	101
2	First Division	82	97	85	106
3	Publisher	92	110	93	112
4	Bestfriend Rocket	82	94	85	106
5	Speed King	93	120	92	113
6	Sandman	92	114	95	119
7	Monet’s Magic	84	109	90	106
8	Coal Battle	91	114	98	118
9	Cornucopian	101	120	100	128

*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are presented courtesy of Daily Racing Form.

Pace makes the race

The Arkansas Derby projects to have an average pace according to TimeformUS, with Cornucopian comfortably in front. Speed King also should be fast early, but just not quite enough to catch the Baffert horse. Coal Battle and Bestfriend Rocket look to press just behind the speed. Publisher, who has yet to win a race in six starts, gets blinkers for this race. Look for him to be more forwardly-placed early, possibly even pressing with Coal Battle. Brereton’s Baytown and Monet’s Magic will settle in mid-pack. First Division and Sandman will trail the field.

Several colts will be ready to unleash a late run here, but Cornucopian will have the advantage as speed of the speed. With John Velazquez in the saddle, any pressure from Speed King will be neutralized before a pace meltdown can develop.

HRN handicappers’ best bets

Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis decide whether Coal Battle can pass Cornucopian in the Arkansas Derby.

Chip Gerhke doesn’t buy the hype on Cornucopian for in his 3-year-old division rankings.

Ed DeRosa thinks Bob Baffert holds all the cards in the Arkansas Derby, but will they be a straight flush?

No.	Silks	Horse / Sire	Rating	Trainer / Jockey	Last start	Morn. line
1		Brereton’s Baytown Upstart	0.00	Paul McEntee Marshall Mendez	8th, 2025 Rebel G2	30-1
Last race		8th, 2025 Rebel G2
2		First Division Omaha Beach	0.00	Kenneth G. McPeek Advertisement Brian J. Hernandez, Jr.	2nd, OP Alw OC (3/2/25-R9)	20-1
Last race		2nd, OP Alw OC (3/2/25-R9)
3		Publisher American Pharoah	5.34	Steven M. Asmussen Flavien Prat	4th, 2025 Rebel G2	6-1
Last race		4th, 2025 Rebel G2
4		Bestfriend Rocket Curlin	0.00	D. Wayne Lukas Nik Juarez Advertisement	1st, OP Alw OC (3/2/25-R9)	20-1
Last race		1st, OP AlwOC (3/2/25-R9)
5		Speed King Volatile	6.48	Ron Moquett Rafael Bejarano	10th, 2025 Rebel G2	15-1
Last race		10th, 2025 Rebel G2
6		Sandman Tapit	6.63	Mark E. Casse Jose L. Ortiz	3rd, 2025 Rebel G2	3-1
Last race		3rd, 2025 Rebel G2
7		Monet’s Magic Good Magic	5.84	Ben Colebrook Advertisement Luan Machado	5th, 2025 Southwest G3	20-1
Last race		5th, 2025 Southwest G3
8		Coal Battle Coal Front	7.21	Lonnie Briley Juan P. Vargas	1st, 2025 Rebel G2	7-2
Last race		1st, 2025 Rebel G2
9		Cornucopian Into Mischief	4.80	Bob Baffert John R. Velazquez Advertisement	1st, OP MSW (2/23/25-R5)	7-5
Last race		1st, OP MSW (2/23/25-R5)

Arkansas 7, Vanderbilt 0 — Top 9th Inning

Charles Davalan led off with a single and scored from first base on Kuhio Aloy’s 1-out RBI double. That was Aloy’s first hit tonight. 

Arkansas 6, Vanderbilt 0 — End 8th Inning

Zach Root’s night is over after 7 2/3 innings. He left the bases loaded for Aiden Jimenez with 2 outs in the eighth. 

Root had some words for plate umpire Jason Bradley as he walked to the dugout. He was clearly upset about a couple of pitches during his final at-bat that he thought were strikes but were called balls. 

Jimenez got ahead of 2-out hitter RJ Austin before he hit a line drive right at left fielder Charles Davalan to keep the bases loaded. 

Arkansas 6, Vanderbilt 0 — Middle 8th Inning

Nolan Souza drew a 2-out walk with the bases loaded to score Logan Maxwell after a 1-out double. 

Brent Iredale also drew a 1-out walk and Ryder Helfrick drew a 2-out walk to load the bases against reliever Hudson Barton. 

Luke Guth replaced Barton after the walk by Souza and Justin Thomas grounded out to strand the bases loaded. 

Arkansas 5, Vanderbilt 0 — End 7th Inning

Zach Root is through 7 scoreless innings — his second consecutive 7-inning start. 

He worked around a 1-out single in the seventh. It was only the second hit against him tonight. He has only thrown 81 pitches, so he might go back out for the eighth. 

Arkansas 5, Vanderbilt 0 — Middle 7th Inning

Nolan Souza drew a leadoff walk and Charles Davalan drew a 2-out walk. The inning ended when Wehiwa Aloy hit into a double play. He is 0 for 4. 

Arkansas 5, Vanderbilt 0 — End 6th Inning

Zach Root struck out Jonathan Vastine and Mike Mancini to begin the sixth inning, and got leadoff man Jacob Humphrey to fly out to left field as part of another 1-2-3 inning. 

Root has allowed 1 hit and 1 walk, and has 6 strikeouts through 6 innings. He has thrown 48 of 68 pitches for strikes. 

Arkansas 5, Vanderbilt 0 — Middle 6th Inning

Cam Kozeal has homered for the second time on his former home field. This time it was to right field on a 1-2, 2-out pitch from JD Thompson. 

Thompson’s night might be finished after he threw his 101st pitch to get out of the inning. 

Arkansas 4, Vanderbilt 0 — End 5th Inning

Mac Rose broke up Zach Root’s no-hit bid with a 1-out single up the middle, but Braden Holcomb grounded into a 6-4-3 double play to end the inning. 

Root has only thrown 59 pitches. 

Arkansas 4, Vanderbilt 0 — Middle 5th Inning

JD Thompson rebounded from a couple of rough innings to retire the Razorbacks 1-2-3 hitters in order in the fifth. 

Wehiwa Aloy put a charge into a pitch and into left field, but it was caught at the warning track. Kuhio Aloy struck out. 

The Aloys are a combined 0 for 6 tonight. They have combined for 4 of Arkansas’ 6 strikeouts against Thompson. 

Arkansas 4, Vanderbilt 0 — End 4th Inning

Zach Root has not allowed a hit through the fourth. And he continues to be efficient with a pitch count at 48. 

The Commodores went down in order in the third, all on contact. 

Arkansas 4, Vanderbilt 0 — Middle 4th Inning

Logan Maxwell turned on a 2-2 pitch for a leadoff home run to left-center field to lead off the fourth. 

Following a 6-pitch walk to Brent Iredale, Cam Kozeal homered to center field at his former ballpark. 

The Razorbacks had leadoff extra-base hits in the third and fourth. 

After a couple of quick innings, Vanderbilt lefty JD Thompson has had to labor. His pitch count is up to 72.

Arkansas 1, Vanderbilt 0 — End 3rd Inning

Zach Root ran his fastball up to 96 mph during an 8-pitch inning. He is dialed in tonight and through 3 innings in 33 pitches. 

The only Vanderbilt base runner against him was a walk. 

Arkansas 1, Vanderbilt 0 — Middle 3rd Inning

Ryder Helfrick has Arkansas’ first hit and run after a leadoff triple off the wall in right field. 

Helfrick scored on Nolan Souza’s RBI groundout up the middle. Shortstop Jonathan Vastine made a great play up the middle to rob Souza of a base hit. 

It looked like the Razorbacks might put together a big inning when Justin Thomas singled and Charles Davalan walked in consecutive 1-out at-bats, but Wehiwa Aloy struck out and Kuhio Aloy grounded out to first to strand 2 base runners. 

JD Thompson looked shaky in that inning and Arkansas drove up his pitch count some. He is up to 47 pitches. 

Arkansas 0, Vanderbilt 0 — End 2nd Inning

Zach Root worked around a 2-out walk by Mac Rose in the second inning. Braden Holcomb flied out to right field to strand the game’s first base runner. 

Root looks sharp with his breaking pitches tonight. He struck out Riley Nelson in 3 pitches and got ahead of Colin Barczi 0-2. Root has thrown 18 of 25 pitches for strikes. 

Arkansas 0, Vanderbilt 0 — Middle 2nd Inning

JD Thompson is through the second inning in 28 total pitches. 

The lefty struck out Logan Maxwell in 3 pitches and Brent Iredale in 4, going to the breaking pitch for the wipeout both times. 

Cam Kozeal, playing his first game back at Vanderbilt where he played as a freshman, fell behind 0-2 before taking a couple of high fastballs. He grounded out to first base to end the half inning. 

Arkansas 0, Vanderbilt 0 — End 1st Inning

Zach Root answered JD Thompson’s efficient first inning with an even more efficient frame. 

Root retired the Commodores in 9 pitches, ending with a strikeout of Brodie Johnston looking at a 1-2 slider. Brent Iredale made a couple of nice plays on hoppers to third for the first 2 outs of the inning. 

Arkansas 0, Vanderbilt 0 — Middle 1st Inning

JD Thompson won an 8-pitch battle with Charles Davalan, who flied out to left field to start the game. 

Hawkins followed that with back-to-back strikeouts of Wehiwa and Kuhio Aloy. He got a couple of favorable calls from plate umpire Jason Bradley on fastballs away against Kuhio, then got him to swing at a 0-2 slider to end the top of the first. 

Pregame

Arkansas and Vanderbilt are set to get underway at Hawkins Field in the series opener. First pitch is scheduled for 7 p.m.

The Razorbacks are ranked No. 2 and the Commodores are No. 13 in this week’s coaches poll. Both teams had series sweeps at home a week ago when Arkansas defeated South Carolina and Vanderbilt defeated Texas A&M. 

Tonight’s game will feature a couple of left-handed juniors with similar stat lines on the mound. Arkansas’ Zach Root has a 4.06 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and Vanderbilt’s JD Thompson has a 4.02 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. 

This series will pit one of college baseball’s hottest lineups (Arkansas) against one of the nation’s top pitching staffs (Vanderbilt). Both teams are terrific defensively, with Arkansas’ .986 average ranked second nationally and Vanderbilt’s .984 ranked sixth.

The Commodores are undefeated through 16 games at home. The Razorbacks are 2-1 on the road. 

Here is Arkansas’ starting lineup: 

LF Charles Davalan

SS Wehiwa Aloy

DH Kuhio Aloy

RF Logan Maxwell

3B Brent Iredale

1B Cam Kozeal

C Ryder Helfrick

2B Nolan Souza

CF Justin Thomas

The No. 2 Arkansas Razorbacks (23-3, 5-1 SEC) will start their second top-15 road series in Southeastern Conference play Friday at Hawkins Field against the No. 14 Vanderbilt Commodores (20-5, 4-2 SEC) in Nashville, Tennessee. The game is set to be televised nationally on SEC Network.

Arkansas won two of three games at a ranked Ole Miss team to open SEC play a couple weekends ago before the Hogs swept South Carolina last weekend in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks lost their first midweek game since 2023 on Tuesday with a 14-13 defeat against the Missouri State Bears.

Vanderbilt lost two of three games at Auburn in their SEC opening weekend series. The Commodores rebounded by sweeping Texas A&M last weekend and they added onto that with a 10-0 run rule win over Eastern Kentucky on Tuesday evening.

Arkansas is 35-33 all-time against Vanderbilt, including an even 15-15 record in games played in Nashville. Under head coach Dave Van Horn, the Razorbacks are 22-26 overall and 8-12 in Nashville against the Commodores.

“There’s no foul territory, the benches are not too far from the fair/foul lines and, you know, a different background,” Van Horn said of Hawkins Field on Wednesday. “But it’s still a baseball field. Just got to get used to it a little bit. The surface is quick. It’s all turf. They play their style of ball and they really do it well at home.”

Van Horn and Vanderbilt head coach Tim Corbin entered the league together in 2003, and they are two of only four coaches in college baseball history, along with Mississippi State’s Ron Polk and Ole Miss’ Mike Bianco, to win 900-plus games at an SEC program.

With a series win this weekend in Nashville, Arkansas would start SEC play with three straight series wins for the seventh time since joining the league in 1992. The Hogs accomplished the feat in 2007, 2009, 2017, 2021, 2022 and 2024.

Below are details on how to watch, BetSaracen betting lines, links to stream and links to all of our coverage leading up to the game…

Who: No. 2 Arkansas Razorbacks (23-3, 5-1 SEC) vs. No. 14 Vanderbilt Commodores (20-5, 4-2 SEC)

When: Friday, March 28 at 7 p.m. CT

Where: Hawkins Field — Nashville, Tennessee

TV/Stream: SEC Network / Watch ESPN (Tom Hart and Chris Burke for Game 1, Kevin Ingram and Andrew Harris for Games 2 and 3)

Radio: Learfield Razorback Sports Network (Phil Elson)

Arkansas – LHP Zach Root (3-1, 4.02 ERA)

Vanderbilt – JD Thompson (2-1, 4.06 ERA)

Below are details on the betting odds for the game and Double R Prop bets. To get in on the action, visit BetSaracen.com and click on the Arkansas Specials tab.

(Lines and odds are subject to change at any point after the publishing of this story. HawgBeat does not guarantee any bet as a winner or loser. You must be at least 21 years of age to use BetSaracen. If you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit 1800gambler.net)

*All odds accurate as of the publishing of this story. They are subject to change.*

Moneyline

– Arkansas: TBA

– Vanderbilt: TBA

Run Line

– TBA

Over/Under

– TBA

Double R Props (More available in the BetSaracen app)

– Kuhio Aloy over 0.5 home runs (+125)

– Logan Maxwell over 0.5 runs scored and over 0.5 base on balls (+145)

– Charles Davalan over 0.5 home runs (+200)

– Arkansas team over 12.5 hits and opponent under 9.5 hits (+300)

– Arkansas team over 9.5 left on base and opponent over 7.5 left on base (+325)

– Cam Kozeal over 0.5 home runs (+575)