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How bad is Omicron? Here’s what to watch for

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The state of affairs with the Omicron variant is altering so quickly, it’s laborious to know the place issues stand.

Generally the information appears ominous, as when the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention mentioned the pressure went from 0.7% to 73% of recent infections within the U.S. in simply two weeks.

Different instances the information appears encouraging, as when South African officers noticed that Omicron instances appeared to recede virtually as dramatically as they’d spiked.

How can we inform what’s actually occurring? Which indicators will reveal the variant’s true powers?

And when will we all know whether or not Omicron represents a setback within the pandemic, a catastrophe or an all-out calamity?

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Right here’s a take a look at what to look at for.

What’s the worst that would occur?

We may study that along with being roughly 22 instances extra transmissible than the unique coronavirus pressure from Wuhan, China, Omicron causes extra extreme sickness, erodes the immunity supplied by vaccines or a previous an infection, and is proof against current remedies.

What concerning the best-case state of affairs?

That may be if Omicron infections trigger little to no sickness in most or all of those that turn out to be contaminated. Even with excessive transmission charges and numerous “breakthrough” instances, a variant that precipitated little greater than sniffles or a couple of days of fatigue is likely to be welcomed as the start of endemicity — a state through which the virus stays amongst us indefinitely. And that may very well be the start of the tip of the pandemic.

Is that seemingly?

For this best-case state of affairs to materialize, Omicron would want to drop the coronavirus’ nasty behavior of inflicting extreme sickness and demise in people who find themselves aged or medically fragile. It additionally must cease inflicting “lengthy COVID” — a mysterious situation with an array of lingering signs equivalent to train intolerance, sleep difficulties and mind fog — in additional than half of those that’ve cleared the virus.

It will be good, too, if an an infection left no less than a couple of months’ price of immunity in its wake, or conferred long-term immunity after a number of infections. For a couple of many years, infants, senior residents and people with high-risk medical situations may very well be vaccinated to forestall extreme instances of COVID-19. However finally, whereas infants would proceed to get the short-term safety of vaccine, most individuals’s publicity to the virus yr in and yr out would permit them to climate an an infection with out a lot fear.

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That is principally the truce mankind has reached with 4 different coronaviruses that trigger what we name the frequent chilly.

What ought to we be looking ahead to?

Some items of the puzzle are starting to fill in. Researchers from Imperial School London have estimated that Omicron is 5.4 instances extra prone to trigger a reinfection than the Delta variant. Meaning the impression of any adverse traits will likely be magnified.

How a lot worse it may very well be will rely upon the subsequent bits of knowledge to fall into place. It’s essential to determine who Omicron infects and in whom it causes extreme sickness or demise.

As well as, understanding when — and for the way lengthy — individuals contaminated with Omicron are contagious is essential for conserving the strapped healthcare sector from changing into overwhelmed, mentioned Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the Nationwide Faculty of Tropical Drugs at Baylor School of Drugs.

When will we all know?

The following two to eight weeks will likely be crucial, mentioned College of Minnesota epidemiologist Michael Osterholm. With its transmission superpowers, Omicron will most likely trigger a “nationwide blizzard” of instances, he mentioned. No area is prone to be spared, as a result of Omicron is simply too good at spreading.

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How will we all know if Omicron makes individuals sicker?

In the USA, hospitalizations are the forex by which illness severity is most frequently judged. Hospital therapy runs the gamut from routine to crucial care, and a affected person’s journey is normally nicely documented, in contrast with being sick at dwelling.

However epidemiologists name hospitalization a “lagging indicator” of a virus’ virulence. Assuming Omicron’s many mutations haven’t modified the coronavirus’ primary sample of assault, it normally takes per week or two after signs first seem for a COVID-19 affected person to turn out to be sick sufficient to require hospitalization. Loss of life usually comes inside 30 days, though many sufferers maintain on for longer.

The pattern that may start to inform the story of Omicron’s virulence is a ratio. Researchers will calculate the variety of new Omicron infections reported on Day X and evaluate it with the variety of Omicron hospitalizations roughly two weeks later. They’ll additionally calculate the ratio of recent instances reported on Day X to COVID-19 deaths brought on by Omicron three to 4 weeks later.

“We’ll know there’s an issue if that ratio shifts,” Hotez mentioned.

One factor to notice: If Omicron is extra seemingly than earlier strains to trigger asymptomatic infections or extraordinarily gentle illness, and people sufferers don’t get examined, that would throw off the calculation in ways in which overestimate Omicron’s capacity to make individuals sick.

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What’s occurring overseas, and what can that inform us?

The expertise of different nations the place Omicron has been circulating for longer can supply early clues of what we may very well be in for. However differing healthcare methods, vaccination standing and inhabitants demographics make the comparisons imperfect.

This week, the World Well being Group reported that hospitalizations in South Africa and the UK proceed to rise, and mentioned it was “potential” their healthcare methods could be overwhelmed. However the WHO additionally famous that information on the medical severity of Omicron infections are “nonetheless restricted.”

Earlier information from South Africa prompt Omicron infections would possibly trigger milder illness and lead to much less want for supplemental oxygen and hospitalization. And a preliminary examine launched Wednesday on the science-sharing web site MedRxiv discovered that vaccinated South African healthcare employees who had breakthrough infections involving Omicron have been a bit much less prone to require intensive hospital care than these whose breakthrough infections have been brought on by the Delta or Beta variants.

A lady has her throat swabbed to check for coronavirus an infection in Soweto, South Africa.

(Denis Farrell / Related Press)

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The U.Okay. Well being Safety Company this week reported 45,145 confirmed Omicron instances in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Eire, with 129 hospitalizations and 14 deaths most likely attributable to the brand new pressure. However instances may readily be 3 times as excessive, the company acknowledged. That uncertainty about what number of Omicron instances there actually are makes it difficult to pin down a neat ratio of instances to hospitalizations.

What wouldn’t it imply if Omicron sickened completely different teams of individuals?

Are males nonetheless barely extra prone to die than girls? Is COVID-19 nonetheless a illness almost definitely to trigger sickness and demise in aged individuals? Are asymptomatic infections nonetheless typical in kids? Over the approaching weeks and months, researchers will scour medical data and revisit current teams of examine individuals to seek out solutions to questions like these.

They’ll additionally look ahead to modifications in the best way Omicron infections play out to see whether or not hallmark signs like runaway irritation, blood-clotting abnormalities and lung harm stay key options of COVID-19. These findings may level to essential elements that make some individuals extra weak to Omicron, and thus in better want of vaccine safety.

What about kids?

South African researchers reported early on that kids appeared extra prone to be hospitalized in the event that they have been contaminated with Omicron — a pattern that might depart from previous variants, and will likely be intently watched.

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If youthful sufferers usually stay much less prone to turn out to be unwell, will probably be essential to ascertain whether or not they nonetheless stay efficient virus spreaders.

Will vaccines nonetheless work?

Lab checks on Omicron have already indicated that the blood serum of vaccinated individuals is much less in a position to cease the virus from invading cells. However real-world information will likely be wanted to substantiate and flesh out these lab findings.

If people who find themselves vaccinated and boosted start filling up hospitals and dying, that will likely be grim proof that vaccine safety has been gravely undermined. To date, the CDC says two doses of mRNA vaccine seem to cut back the chance of extreme sickness with Omicron. However officers stress that including a booster shot will strengthen that safety, and so they’re urging vaccinated People to get one in the event that they’re eligible.

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AI and memory deletion: Inside the medical quest to cure grief

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AI and memory deletion: Inside the medical quest to cure grief

When Cody Delistraty lost his mother in 2014, he was surprised by the various ways that he, his brother and his father dealt with their grief. The journalist and speechwriter had expected his family’s experiences to be aligned, that there would be a, “homogeneity to grieving.” The differences led Delistraty to wonder whether loss was more complicated than advertised.

In America, grief is often framed as a journey from Point A to Point B, a linear path efficiently chugging through stages like denial and anger, ultimately heading toward acceptance. But anyone who has experienced a loss firsthand understands that it isn’t so simple. Grief can be isolating, confusing and unyielding.

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Shelf Help is a new wellness column where we interview researchers, thinkers and writers about their latest books — all with the aim of learning how to live a more complete life.

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In 2022, a new addition to the DSM-5 (“Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders”) caught Delistraty’s eye: prolonged grief disorder. It’s a rare condition in which grief becomes so severe that it interferes with daily life. The classification opens the door to medical solutions: pharmaceuticals are in early testing stages, and a slew of new digital, psychedelic and other treatments are emerging.

Delistraty’s new book, “The Grief Cure: Looking for the End of Loss,” (Harper) follows his inquisitive sampling of available and future therapies, all while wondering whether grief is a problem that needs to be solved.

Your understanding of grief initially centered on a concept known as the five stages: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. How did that shift?

Portrait of Cody Delistraty standing in front of a bookcase

Cody Delistraty (Grace Ann Leadbeater)

When Elisabeth Kübler-Ross came up with the five stages, she was talking to patients who were coming to terms with their own deaths, not with their own grief, which is similar but also very different. There was a study that tracked grievers from various demographics and found that most people actually experience a progression, but my issue with the typical interpretation of the five stages is that it’s presented as the right way to grieve, that there’s a method you can master and that the end game is acceptance.

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America has a culture of individuality and mastery — we want to achieve, we want to overcome, we want to bootstrap our way to success. But in grief, we only set ourselves back trying to do this. After a loss is the time to pause and reflect, and even if you do go through these stages to some degree, trying to rush through them or extract value in order to get to acceptance and move on is a fundamentally wrong way of looking at it.

“America has a culture of individuality and mastery — we want to achieve, we want to overcome, we want to bootstrap our way to success. But in grief, we only set ourselves back trying to do this.”

— Cody Delistraty, author of “The Grief Cure.”

Your book confronts the isolation of grieving and how it’s so often considered unseemly or inappropriate when done publicly. Grief is culturally framed as an individual journey, and yet it’s a universal fact of life. What do you think accounts for this disconnect?

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This paradigm shift from public to private grieving is a relatively recent phenomenon. Americans, especially, are weary of talking or asking about loss. This is a symptom of “happiness culture,” where grief is considered a burden and you don’t want to seem unhappy or bring others down. The disintegration of local communities exacerbates this. And then this false idea that closure marks a victory over grief. Keeping grief private implies that you did your job. There’s morally valuable willpower. You did it. You got over it.

I think self-care has been the problematic marketing breakthrough of the 21st century, in which the more challenging aspects of being a human, like disappointment, sadness and grief, get pushed out of the frame. They’re not within our consumption narrative, and they’re not within the way we want to present to others.

What surprised me while researching is that it seems like people are actually bubbling with the desire to talk about these things. When I was researching for the book, I got sick of holing up in hotels, so I went to a bar and ended up talking with someone who told me about her recent divorce, which she called the greatest loss of her life. She hadn’t really talked to anybody about it, and it was so nice to connect over loss. When people are open, it can snowball into greater openness.

Our society can place varying value on different types of loss, resulting in some to fall through the cracks, like that woman with her divorce. But grief exists on a spectrum. In the book, you discuss ambiguous loss. Can you tell me more?

Book jacket for "The Grief Cure" by Cody Delistraty

(Courtesy of Harper Collins)

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The term ambiguous loss was coined by Pauline Boss at the University of Minnesota, who worked with the families of soldiers who went missing in Vietnam. Boss defined it as “a relational disorder caused by the lack of facts surrounding the loss of a loved one,” but today, it encompasses a wide variety of loss.

Climate grief is a big and very modern one. There was a European study that found a third of respondents are extremely worried about climate change. That’s a huge instance of ambiguous grief because there’s disappearance of species and landscapes, there’s an increase in climate refugees, but you can’t really point to a body in a casket and say this is what I’m grieving.

Relationships are another big example. In the book, I went to breakup boot camp to explore losing a loved one outside of death. Friend breakups can be devastating. I really push against the idea of hierarchies and grief. There isn’t a fundamental ranking within grief, and it is subjective to the relationship you had to that person or thing.

Your experiences brought you to the cutting edge of grief research. What do you make of the future of grief treatments?

When I was writing the AI [artificial intelligence] chapter of re-creating technologically deceased loved ones, it was super cutting-edge and wild. Then, of course, it all hit the news cycle pretty intensely with Chat-GPT. Optogenetics for memory deletion could be something we’re faced with in another decade or two. There will be medical technologies where we can take a lot of the pain and burden out of loss. My book questions whether that’s really for the best. We should be thinking about this now before the time comes.

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TAKEAWAYS

from “The Grief Cure”

Psilocybin is a huge scientific breakthrough for grief. I talked to one of the most renowned psilocybin researchers, Robin Carhart-Harris, who told me about this guy, Kirk Rutter, whose mother had died, he’d been in this terrible car accident and then he went through a romantic breakup all in the span of about a year. Carhart-Harris’ team gave him just two pills of synthesized psilocybin, donned him with an eye mask and calm music, and he had this incredible perspective shift. He cycled through memories of his mom and realized he didn’t have to maintain the most painful parts, but he could still hold onto her and respect her memory. That treatment made him look at grief differently.

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What is your best advice for somebody really stuck in their grief?

There’s no right way of doing it, but don’t rush it. As awful as this time is, there’s so much to be gleaned from really looking inward, reflecting on yourself and your feelings, and thinking about the person you’ve lost. I rushed after my mom died, trying to push past the pain, and here I am, a decade later, writing a book about it. These things really do take time.

I also recommend telling your people what you need from them. The vast majority of people want to talk about these things, they want to be helpful, but especially in the U.S., we are very bad at knowing what that looks like. To the degree that you can, communicate your needs. I think you’d be surprised by the degree to which people will be there for you.

Should someone in grief be aiming for closure?

I think closure is a mythical idea. Nancy Berns, a professor at Drake University, has done a lot of great work on closure and how it’s a social construct. We too often skip over the grappling-with and reflecting-on of grief in order to get to this mythical place of closure when really the truest value is being able to hold that loss in one part of your life while holding a future-looking part in another.

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We see this push for closure reified across American culture. One of the biggest shocks for me was bereavement leave, where the median is only five days according to a 2024 study, and this only applies to a close family death. There’s no U.S. federal law requiring leave. This bolsters the idea that closure is part and parcel of productivity, of getting back to normal, of getting back to work.

Our rituals around grief are one-off. We go to a funeral, and that’s it. You get support for an hour, and then it’s over. We’d do well to really reflect on more personal, creative rituals that have more intimate meaning and can be continued over a longer period. This shift would help people with the understanding of time lines around grief. It all takes so much longer than we think. You miss so much when you rush through to tick the box of closure, and frankly, when you do so, you’re really not grieving at all.

a figure sit in the threshold of a door opening to a void

(Maggie Chiang / For The Times)

Endicott is a writer and multi-disciplinary artist based in Denver. Her work has appeared in a number of publications including the New York Times, Scientific American, the Guardian, Elle, Electric Lit and Bomb Magazine. You can find her on Instagram @weirdbirds.

Shelf Help is a new wellness column where we interview researchers, thinkers and writers about their latest books — all with the aim of learning how to live a more complete life. Want to pitch us? Email alyssa.bereznak@latimes.com.

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L.A. County plans to put $5 million toward wiping out medical debt

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L.A. County plans to put $5 million toward wiping out medical debt

Los Angeles County is moving forward with a pilot program to relieve medical debt for struggling residents, setting aside $5 million for a planned agreement with a national nonprofit that buys and erases such debts.

County supervisors voted Tuesday to allocate money for a county agreement with Undue Medical Debt to carry out the new program. The effort is expected to launch later this year, focusing on debt stemming from hospital care and targeting L.A. County’s “lowest income residents.”

“No one should be driven into poverty because they got sick,” Supervisor Janice Hahn, who put forward the proposal with Supervisor Holly Mitchell, said in a statement.

“But medical debt remains a huge problem in this country, and it can be devastating for families and their financial well-being. Luckily for us, we have an opportunity to make a difference.”

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Hospitals stuck with unpaid bills can bundle and sell the debt at a discount to collection agencies that try to recoup the owed money for profit. Undue Medical Debt instead buys the discounted debt and forgives it. The nonprofit said it can erase an average of $100 in debt for every dollar that is donated.

“Five million dollars can really go a long way,” said its vice president of communications and marketing Daniel Lempert. County officials estimated that amount could eliminate $500 million of debt for 150,000 residents.

Across the country, Undue Medical Debt has partnered with local governments such as Cook County, Ill. and Toledo, Ohio. to fund such efforts. Lempert said that under such agreements, the nonprofit typically reaches out to local hospitals and other health care providers to identify and purchase medical debt affecting financially strapped patients, then gets reimbursed by the local government for the cost of debts affecting their residents.

Under its guidelines for financial hardship, Undue Medical Debt works to relieve debt for people from households making no more than four times the federal poverty level — a calculation equating to $124,800 this year for a family of four — or whose medical debt amounts to 5% or more of their income.

L.A. County is still working out who will be eligible under its pilot program, but its broad goal is to reach “our lowest-income residents and the working poor who have catastrophic amounts of medical debt,” said Dr. Naman Shah, director of the division of medical and dental affairs at L.A. County Public Health.

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The L.A. County pilot program will focus specifically on medical debts for hospital care, Shah said. Local residents cannot apply directly for their medical debt to be wiped out, but will be informed if Undue Medical Debt has eliminated some or all of their unpaid debt.

“You’ll get a letter out of the blue saying, ‘X, Y or Z debts have been relieved. You no longer owe them. Keep this as a receipt,’” Lempert said.

In Los Angeles County, public health officials have estimated that medical debt totaled more than $2.9 billion in 2022, burdening 1 in 10 adults in the county — a higher percentage than suffered from asthma, according to the public health department. More than half of those who said they were burdened by medical debt had taken on credit card debt to pay medical bills, its analysis found.

The problem has persisted even as more L.A. County residents gained insurance coverage, underscoring the need for a targeted approach, the public health department said.

County officials estimated earlier this year that wiping out nearly $3 billion in medical debt for L.A. County residents through an intermediary would cost $24 million. Other municipalities have turned to funding from the American Rescue Plan Act for such debt relief, but L.A. County had “fully allocated” that money as of January, according to a staff report.

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The public health department said it planned to instead use $5 million in one-time county funding for the pilot program, which it said would roll out in stages, starting with “the most vulnerable residents.” Shah said his hope was to raise enough additional money to not have to set priorities about which struggling residents to help.

A study released earlier this year raised questions about the effectiveness of buying up medical debt: A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper that examined medical debt relief for more than 83,000 people from 2018 to 2020 concluded it had no effect, on average, on financial distress or mental health. The research was done in partnership with Undue Medical Debt, then known as RIP Medical Debt.

Despite the “disappointing results,” the researchers wrote, “there is still potential that medical debt relief targeted further upstream or in different populations could yield meaningful benefits.” Stanford University professor of economics Neale Mahoney said the cheapest debts to buy often date back five years or more.

By that point, “a lot of these folks had a lot of other issues, and relieving one of their issues without helping … all of the other financial issues they had wasn’t enough to move the needle,” he said. One solution is to “move more upstream,” and provide debt relief earlier, “before people are too scarred by the debt collection process.”

Mahoney praised the response of the nonprofit, saying it was “taking the study to heart.” Undue Medical Debt president Allison Sesso said in April that it had already made changes since the period covered by the study, including buying medical debt directly from hospitals before it goes to debt buyers or collection agencies.

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Sesso also said her group was “collaborating with local governments across the country to concentrate debt erasure to a specific locality to deepen our impact.”

Focusing such efforts in a targeted area ramps up the chances it may be able to wipe out multiple debts for an individual patient, Lempert said.

Shah added that the study did not show what would happen if debt relief happened alongside other prevention efforts. In L.A. County, “there is a larger agenda on medical debt — of which this is just one part.”

Under a broader plan to combat medical debt in L.A. County, the public health department also wants to gather data on how hospitals collect debt and assist strapped patients, create an online portal to apply for financial help, and expand legal aid services, among other proposed steps.

Public health department director Barbara Ferrer told county supervisors Tuesday that their goal is to stop medical debt “at the source,” before it starts piling up for L.A. County residents.

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“We don’t want to be coming back to you in five years trying to pay off medical debt again,” Ferrer said.

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L.A.'s newest dinosaur has its forever name

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L.A.'s newest dinosaur has its forever name

The people have spoken, and L.A.’s newest Jurassic-era resident has its forever name.

Dinosaur fans who responded to the museum’s request for input overwhelmingly chose to call the Natural History Museum’s new 70-foot-long sauropod “Gnatalie.”

More than 36% of roughly 8,100 participants in a public poll chose that name, which is pronounced “Natalie,” from among five options offered by the museum.

A rendering of the new dinosaur display at the Natural History Museum. Dinosaur fans who responded to a museum poll have decided to call the 70-foot-long sauropod “Gnatalie.”

(Frederick Fisher and Partners, Studio MLA, and Studio Joseph / NHMLAC)

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The punny moniker is a reference to the relentless swarm of gnats that plagued paleontologists, students, museum staff and volunteers during the 13-year effort to unearth the dinosaur’s remains from a quarry in southeast Utah. Museum staff nicknamed the dinosaur Gnatalie while they were still digging it up, a process that lasted from 2007 to 2019.

The long-necked, long-tailed skeleton will be the focal point of the NHM Commons, a $75 million welcome center currently under construction on the southwest end of the museum in Exposition Park. Slated to open this fall, the Commons will offer gardens, an outdoor plaza, a 400-seat theater and a glass-walled welcome center that can be toured without a ticket.

“The efforts of hundreds of people contributed to what you see here, ground to mount,” said paleontologist Luis Chiappe, director of the Dinosaur Institute at the Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County.

The specimen appears to be part of a new species, similar to the Diplodocus, which will be scientifically named in the future. Thanks to celadonite minerals that replaced organic matter during the fossilization process, the mounted skeleton has a unique greenish-brown hue.

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The skeleton is made up of about 350 fossils from six different animals whose bones washed into a river after death some 150 million years ago and commingled.

“We are delighted to see how many people voted and how much they loved our name for this unusual dinosaur,” said Lori Bettison-Varga, President and Director of the Natural History Museums of Los Angeles County.

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