Science
How bad is Omicron? Here’s what to watch for
The state of affairs with the Omicron variant is altering so quickly, it’s laborious to know the place issues stand.
Generally the information appears ominous, as when the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention mentioned the pressure went from 0.7% to 73% of recent infections within the U.S. in simply two weeks.
Different instances the information appears encouraging, as when South African officers noticed that Omicron instances appeared to recede virtually as dramatically as they’d spiked.
How can we inform what’s actually occurring? Which indicators will reveal the variant’s true powers?
And when will we all know whether or not Omicron represents a setback within the pandemic, a catastrophe or an all-out calamity?
Right here’s a take a look at what to look at for.
What’s the worst that would occur?
We may study that along with being roughly 22 instances extra transmissible than the unique coronavirus pressure from Wuhan, China, Omicron causes extra extreme sickness, erodes the immunity supplied by vaccines or a previous an infection, and is proof against current remedies.
What concerning the best-case state of affairs?
That may be if Omicron infections trigger little to no sickness in most or all of those that turn out to be contaminated. Even with excessive transmission charges and numerous “breakthrough” instances, a variant that precipitated little greater than sniffles or a couple of days of fatigue is likely to be welcomed as the start of endemicity — a state through which the virus stays amongst us indefinitely. And that may very well be the start of the tip of the pandemic.
Is that seemingly?
For this best-case state of affairs to materialize, Omicron would want to drop the coronavirus’ nasty behavior of inflicting extreme sickness and demise in people who find themselves aged or medically fragile. It additionally must cease inflicting “lengthy COVID” — a mysterious situation with an array of lingering signs equivalent to train intolerance, sleep difficulties and mind fog — in additional than half of those that’ve cleared the virus.
It will be good, too, if an an infection left no less than a couple of months’ price of immunity in its wake, or conferred long-term immunity after a number of infections. For a couple of many years, infants, senior residents and people with high-risk medical situations may very well be vaccinated to forestall extreme instances of COVID-19. However finally, whereas infants would proceed to get the short-term safety of vaccine, most individuals’s publicity to the virus yr in and yr out would permit them to climate an an infection with out a lot fear.
That is principally the truce mankind has reached with 4 different coronaviruses that trigger what we name the frequent chilly.
What ought to we be looking ahead to?
Some items of the puzzle are starting to fill in. Researchers from Imperial School London have estimated that Omicron is 5.4 instances extra prone to trigger a reinfection than the Delta variant. Meaning the impression of any adverse traits will likely be magnified.
How a lot worse it may very well be will rely upon the subsequent bits of knowledge to fall into place. It’s essential to determine who Omicron infects and in whom it causes extreme sickness or demise.
As well as, understanding when — and for the way lengthy — individuals contaminated with Omicron are contagious is essential for conserving the strapped healthcare sector from changing into overwhelmed, mentioned Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the Nationwide Faculty of Tropical Drugs at Baylor School of Drugs.
When will we all know?
The following two to eight weeks will likely be crucial, mentioned College of Minnesota epidemiologist Michael Osterholm. With its transmission superpowers, Omicron will most likely trigger a “nationwide blizzard” of instances, he mentioned. No area is prone to be spared, as a result of Omicron is simply too good at spreading.
How will we all know if Omicron makes individuals sicker?
In the USA, hospitalizations are the forex by which illness severity is most frequently judged. Hospital therapy runs the gamut from routine to crucial care, and a affected person’s journey is normally nicely documented, in contrast with being sick at dwelling.
However epidemiologists name hospitalization a “lagging indicator” of a virus’ virulence. Assuming Omicron’s many mutations haven’t modified the coronavirus’ primary sample of assault, it normally takes per week or two after signs first seem for a COVID-19 affected person to turn out to be sick sufficient to require hospitalization. Loss of life usually comes inside 30 days, though many sufferers maintain on for longer.
The pattern that may start to inform the story of Omicron’s virulence is a ratio. Researchers will calculate the variety of new Omicron infections reported on Day X and evaluate it with the variety of Omicron hospitalizations roughly two weeks later. They’ll additionally calculate the ratio of recent instances reported on Day X to COVID-19 deaths brought on by Omicron three to 4 weeks later.
“We’ll know there’s an issue if that ratio shifts,” Hotez mentioned.
One factor to notice: If Omicron is extra seemingly than earlier strains to trigger asymptomatic infections or extraordinarily gentle illness, and people sufferers don’t get examined, that would throw off the calculation in ways in which overestimate Omicron’s capacity to make individuals sick.
What’s occurring overseas, and what can that inform us?
The expertise of different nations the place Omicron has been circulating for longer can supply early clues of what we may very well be in for. However differing healthcare methods, vaccination standing and inhabitants demographics make the comparisons imperfect.
This week, the World Well being Group reported that hospitalizations in South Africa and the UK proceed to rise, and mentioned it was “potential” their healthcare methods could be overwhelmed. However the WHO additionally famous that information on the medical severity of Omicron infections are “nonetheless restricted.”
Earlier information from South Africa prompt Omicron infections would possibly trigger milder illness and lead to much less want for supplemental oxygen and hospitalization. And a preliminary examine launched Wednesday on the science-sharing web site MedRxiv discovered that vaccinated South African healthcare employees who had breakthrough infections involving Omicron have been a bit much less prone to require intensive hospital care than these whose breakthrough infections have been brought on by the Delta or Beta variants.
The U.Okay. Well being Safety Company this week reported 45,145 confirmed Omicron instances in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Eire, with 129 hospitalizations and 14 deaths most likely attributable to the brand new pressure. However instances may readily be 3 times as excessive, the company acknowledged. That uncertainty about what number of Omicron instances there actually are makes it difficult to pin down a neat ratio of instances to hospitalizations.
What wouldn’t it imply if Omicron sickened completely different teams of individuals?
Are males nonetheless barely extra prone to die than girls? Is COVID-19 nonetheless a illness almost definitely to trigger sickness and demise in aged individuals? Are asymptomatic infections nonetheless typical in kids? Over the approaching weeks and months, researchers will scour medical data and revisit current teams of examine individuals to seek out solutions to questions like these.
They’ll additionally look ahead to modifications in the best way Omicron infections play out to see whether or not hallmark signs like runaway irritation, blood-clotting abnormalities and lung harm stay key options of COVID-19. These findings may level to essential elements that make some individuals extra weak to Omicron, and thus in better want of vaccine safety.
What about kids?
South African researchers reported early on that kids appeared extra prone to be hospitalized in the event that they have been contaminated with Omicron — a pattern that might depart from previous variants, and will likely be intently watched.
If youthful sufferers usually stay much less prone to turn out to be unwell, will probably be essential to ascertain whether or not they nonetheless stay efficient virus spreaders.
Will vaccines nonetheless work?
Lab checks on Omicron have already indicated that the blood serum of vaccinated individuals is much less in a position to cease the virus from invading cells. However real-world information will likely be wanted to substantiate and flesh out these lab findings.
If people who find themselves vaccinated and boosted start filling up hospitals and dying, that will likely be grim proof that vaccine safety has been gravely undermined. To date, the CDC says two doses of mRNA vaccine seem to cut back the chance of extreme sickness with Omicron. However officers stress that including a booster shot will strengthen that safety, and so they’re urging vaccinated People to get one in the event that they’re eligible.
Science
Panama Canal’s Expansion Opened Routes for Fish to Relocate
Night fell as the two scientists got to work, unfurling long nets off the end of their boat. The jungle struck up its evening symphony: the sweet chittering of insects, the distant bellowing of monkeys, the occasional screech of a kite. Crocodiles lounged in the shallows, their eyes glinting when headlamps were shined their way.
Across the water, cargo ships made dark shapes as they slid between the seas.
The Panama Canal has for more than a century connected far-flung peoples and economies, making it an essential artery for global trade — and, in recent weeks, a target of President-elect Donald J. Trump’s expansionist designs.
But of late the canal has been linking something else, too: the immense ecosystems of the Atlantic and the Pacific.
The two oceans have been separated for some three million years, ever since the isthmus of Panama rose out of the water and split them. The canal cut a path through the continent, yet for decades only a handful of marine fish species managed to migrate through the waterway and the freshwater reservoir, Lake Gatún, that feeds its locks.
Then, in 2016, Panama expanded the canal to allow supersize ships, and all that started to change.
In less than a decade, fish from both oceans — snooks, jacks, snappers and more — have almost entirely displaced the freshwater species that were in the canal system before, scientists with the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama have found. Fishermen around Lake Gatún who rely on those species, chiefly peacock bass and tilapia, say their catches are growing scarce.
Researchers now worry that more fish could start making their way through from one ocean to the other. And no potential invader causes more concern than the venomous, candy-striped lionfish. They are known to inhabit Panama’s Caribbean coast, but not the eastern Pacific. If they made it there through the canal, they could ravage the defenseless local fish, just as they’ve done in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.
Already, marine species are more than occasional visitors in Lake Gatún, said Phillip Sanchez, a fisheries ecologist with the Smithsonian. They’re “becoming the dominant community,” he said. They’re “pushing everything else out.”
Science
Sitting hurts. Train for your desk job with these 5 easy exercises for your head and neck
It’s Monday morning, the start of your work week. You’ve put the finishing touches on that big report, prepared for that imminent presentation. But it’s likely that there’s one aspect of the job you’re not ready for: the marathon of sitting at your desk all day.
Time to start training. Because while it might not be earthshaking news, it bears repeating: Prolonged desk work can lead to a host of musculoskeletal issues, from annoying aches and pains to injuries.
Even if your work space is ergonomically correct — and even if you exercise regularly in your free time — excessive desk work (considered three or four continuous hours) can lead to weakened, tight muscles, joint stiffness, inflammation in the muscles and tendons and tight fascia (connective tissue). Add it all up, and the result is typically some level of discomfort.
Left untreated, muscles that are stressed and deconditioned can lead to painful soft tissue problems, such as tendonitis and carpal tunnel syndrome, as well as chronic lower back pain. You can also become at risk for bulging or herniated discs, pinched nerves and other issues.
Desk work can also lead to biomechanical imbalances. Weakened glutes from sitting, for example, can lead to stress on the knees and lower back; tired hip flexors can alter pelvic movement, leading to lower back pain.
Which is concerning seeing as sitting for work is both on the rise and can put us at risk for other serious health issues, says Stella Volpe, president of the American College of Sports Medicine.
“We know that there are more Americans now that have sedentary jobs than ever in the past,” Volpe says. “The more we sit, the greater risk we have of diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular disease.”
Blame our sitting-related woes on the advent of furniture, says David Raichlen, a USC evolutionary biologist who studies sedentary behavior and exercise.
Before chairs with a back and arm rests debuted as a status symbol among ancient Egyptians about 5,000 years ago, he says that humans mostly kneeled or squatted for about 2 million years. Those resting postures require light muscle activity, but when the body is fully supported by a chair or a couch, it turns off that activity in the body parts being supported by the furniture, Raichlen says. Prolonged inactivity can then lead to muscle atrophy and other problems.
“From an evolutionary standpoint, the human body hasn’t yet adapted to furniture,” Raichlen says. “It never had to deal with completely inactive muscles for long periods of time until very recently.”
But the good news is you can train for long-distance sessions at your desk by working out your neck, your wrists, your lower back, even your feet and toes. These “exercise snacks,” as trainers call them, don’t require a trip to the gym, or equipment, or even much time.
They’re not meant to replace regular exercise, but they will — if done regularly — prepare your body for the challenge that is desk work by stretching and strengthening your muscles, taking pressure off your joints and reducing stiffness and inflammation in the area — all of which may alleviate pain and prevent new injuries.
“We’re designed to be hunter-gatherers, not to wiggle our fingers on a keyboard for eight hours straight,” says Dr. Joshua T. Goldman, a UCLA sports medicine physician. “We need to build up strength, for endurance purposes, to help those body parts tolerate that activity.”
“The human body hasn’t yet adapted to furniture. It never had to deal with completely inactive muscles for long periods of time until very recently.”
— David Raichlen, USC evolutionary biologist
We spoke to exercise physiologists, sports medicine physicians, personal trainers, physical therapists and others to devise a short, five-minute exercise routine for six key regions of the body. We’ll roll out one routine a week — starting with the head and neck area — for six weeks, until you have a complete full-body workout.
Each exercise is purposefully simple, meant to take 30-60 seconds. And each routine lasts about five minutes or less in total. They’re ideally done throughout the day, so as to promote mobility and circulation, bringing blood flow and nutrients to the muscles and tendons, and increasing lubrication in the joints. Set a timer. Take a five-minute break to execute one routine. Then get back to work.
Still too busy? Do just one exercise, for 30-60 seconds, then continue working. If you get through one routine by day’s end, consider it a win. Focus on a different routine the next day.
“It all adds up,” Volpe says. “Our society often thinks that if you’re not running a marathon, you’re not doing enough. But the additive effect is still good for you.”
A routine for your head and neck
The neck is a common area in which to develop pain from desk work. Looking at a computer monitor, we often jut our neck forward rather than tucking in our chin, as we should. That pushes our cervical column out of alignment and creates excess stress on the bones and discs of the cervical spine. It shortens and tightens muscles in the neck, which can lead to pain and cause tension headaches.
Do these exercises to help stretch and strengthen the muscles that support your head and neck. They’re demonstrated by trainer Melissa Gunn, of Pure Strength LA, whose team trains desk workers on how to protect their bodies through exercise.
- Clasp your hands behind your head and gently tuck your chin down toward your chest. Hold 10 seconds. Do five times.
- Slowly tilt your head to the left, bringing your ear toward your shoulder. Hold for 10 seconds, then raise it slowly back up to the starting point. Switch sides. Do three times on each side. To increase the stretch, after bringing your ear to your shoulder and holding, turn your head and look down toward your armpit on the same side, then return to starting position.
- Place your back flat against a wall and stand with your feet about eight inches from the wall, with knees slightly bent. Your arms should be flush against the wall, with palms facing outward. Tuck your chin slightly and push your head gently against the wall. Slide your arms up the wall, as if doing a snow angel. Go as far as you can with your arms and hands flush against wall. Stop when they begin to pull away from the wall — typically when palms are between shoulder height and head height. Do 10 times.
- Stand up straight and align your head, shoulders, hips and ankles — most people jut their neck forward without knowing it, creating static tension there, so consciously move your head back so it’s above your shoulders. Slowly roll your head in a circle, first to the left, clockwise, all the way around; then to the right, counter-clockwise. Do 3 times on each side.
- Stand up straight and align your head, shoulders, hips and ankles. Your arms should be beside you and your palms facing outward. Then pull your arms back but no further than the back pockets of your pants — without lifting your shoulders — and draw your shoulder blades together. Hold for 2-5 seconds. Do 5-10 times.
(Exercises came from Dr. Joshua T. Goldman, UCLA sports medicine; Melissa Gunn, Pure Strength LA; Tom Hendrickx, Pivot Physical Therapy; Vanessa Martinez Kercher, Indiana University-Bloomington, School of Public Health; Nico Pronk, Health Partners Institute; Niki Saccareccia, Light Inside Yoga.)
Science
Lead Poisoning May Have Made Ancient Romans a Bit Less Intelligent
Roughly 2,000 years ago, the Roman Empire was flourishing. But something sinister was in the air. Literally.
Widespread pollution in the form of airborne lead was taking a toll on health and intelligence, researchers reported on Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
During the roughly two centuries starting in 27 B.C., a period of relative stability and prosperity known as the Pax Romana, the empire extended throughout Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. Its economy relied on silver coinage, which required huge mining operations.
But extracting silver from the Earth creates a whole lot of lead, said Joseph McConnell, an environmental scientist at the Desert Research Institute, a nonprofit group based in Nevada, and the lead author of the new research. “If you produce an ounce of silver, you’d have produced something like 10,000 ounces of lead.”
And lead has a host of negative effects on the human body. “There is no such thing as any safe level of lead exposure,” said Deborah Cory-Slechta, a neurotoxicologist at the University of Rochester Medical Center who was not involved in the research.
Dr. McConnell and his colleagues have now detected lead in layers of ice collected in Russia and Greenland that date to the time of the Roman Empire. Lead entered the atmosphere from Roman mining operations, hitched a ride on air currents and eventually fell out of the atmosphere as snow in the Arctic, the team surmised.
The levels of lead that Dr. McConnell and his collaborators measured were extremely low, roughly one lead-containing molecule per trillion molecules of water. But the ice samples were collected thousands of miles from southern Europe, and lead concentrations would have been highly dispersed after such a long journey.
In order to estimate the amount of lead originally emitted by Roman mining operations, the researchers worked backward: Using powerful computer models of the planet’s atmosphere and making assumptions about the location of the mining sites, the team varied the amount of lead emitted to match the concentrations they measured in the ice. In one case, they assumed that all silver production took place at a historically important mining site in southwestern Spain known as Rio Tinto. In another case, they presumed that silver mining was equally spread out across dozens of sites.
The team calculated that anywhere from 3,300 to 4,600 tons of lead were being emitted into the atmosphere each year by Roman silver-mining operations. The researchers then estimated how all that lead would be scattered across the Roman Empire.
“We ran the model in the forward direction to see how those emissions would be distributed,” Dr. McConnell said.
With those atmospheric-lead concentrations in hand, the researchers next used modern-day data to estimate how much lead would have entered the bloodstreams of people in ancient Rome.
Dr. McConnell and his colleagues focused on infants and children. Young people are particularly susceptible to taking up lead from their environment via ingestion and inhalation, said Dr. Bruce Lanphear, a public heath physician at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia who was not involved in the research. “Pound for pound, children, particularly infants, eat more and breathe more.”
In recent decades, lead levels in children’s blood have been correlated with a slew of physical and mental health metrics, including I.Q., Dr. Cory-Slechta said. “We have actual data on I.Q. scores in kids with different blood-lead concentrations.”
Using those modern-day relationships, Dr. McConnell and his team estimated that children across much of the Roman Empire would have had around 2 to 5 additional micrograms of lead, per deciliter of blood. Such levels correspond to I.Q. declines of roughly 2 or 3 points.
For comparison, American children in the 1970s had average blood-lead-level enhancements of around 15 micrograms more lead per deciliter of blood before the phasing out of leaded gasoline and leaded paints. Their corresponding average I.Q. decline was about 9 points.
But lead exposure would have had other negative effects on Romans as well. Higher levels of lead in the blood have also been linked to higher incidences of preterm births and reduced cognitive functioning in old age. “It follows you throughout life,” Dr. Lanphear said.
Some scholars have hypothesized that lead poisoning played an important role in the decline of the Roman Empire. But that idea has been called into question, at least when it comes to water contaminated by lead pipes. A 2014 study showed that, while the pipes used to distribute water in Rome increased lead levels, the water was unlikely to be truly harmful.
These new findings make sense, said Hugo Delile, a geoarchaeologist at the French National Centre for Scientific Research, who was not involved in the research. “They confirm the extent of lead pollution resulting from Roman mining and metallurgical activities.”
According to Dr. McConnell, the research also confers a dubious honor on Roman mining. “To my knowledge, it’s the earliest example of widespread industrial pollution,” he said.
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