Science
How bad is Omicron? Here’s what to watch for
The state of affairs with the Omicron variant is altering so quickly, it’s laborious to know the place issues stand.
Generally the information appears ominous, as when the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention mentioned the pressure went from 0.7% to 73% of recent infections within the U.S. in simply two weeks.
Different instances the information appears encouraging, as when South African officers noticed that Omicron instances appeared to recede virtually as dramatically as they’d spiked.
How can we inform what’s actually occurring? Which indicators will reveal the variant’s true powers?
And when will we all know whether or not Omicron represents a setback within the pandemic, a catastrophe or an all-out calamity?
Right here’s a take a look at what to look at for.
What’s the worst that would occur?
We may study that along with being roughly 22 instances extra transmissible than the unique coronavirus pressure from Wuhan, China, Omicron causes extra extreme sickness, erodes the immunity supplied by vaccines or a previous an infection, and is proof against current remedies.
What concerning the best-case state of affairs?
That may be if Omicron infections trigger little to no sickness in most or all of those that turn out to be contaminated. Even with excessive transmission charges and numerous “breakthrough” instances, a variant that precipitated little greater than sniffles or a couple of days of fatigue is likely to be welcomed as the start of endemicity — a state through which the virus stays amongst us indefinitely. And that may very well be the start of the tip of the pandemic.
Is that seemingly?
For this best-case state of affairs to materialize, Omicron would want to drop the coronavirus’ nasty behavior of inflicting extreme sickness and demise in people who find themselves aged or medically fragile. It additionally must cease inflicting “lengthy COVID” — a mysterious situation with an array of lingering signs equivalent to train intolerance, sleep difficulties and mind fog — in additional than half of those that’ve cleared the virus.
It will be good, too, if an an infection left no less than a couple of months’ price of immunity in its wake, or conferred long-term immunity after a number of infections. For a couple of many years, infants, senior residents and people with high-risk medical situations may very well be vaccinated to forestall extreme instances of COVID-19. However finally, whereas infants would proceed to get the short-term safety of vaccine, most individuals’s publicity to the virus yr in and yr out would permit them to climate an an infection with out a lot fear.
That is principally the truce mankind has reached with 4 different coronaviruses that trigger what we name the frequent chilly.
What ought to we be looking ahead to?
Some items of the puzzle are starting to fill in. Researchers from Imperial School London have estimated that Omicron is 5.4 instances extra prone to trigger a reinfection than the Delta variant. Meaning the impression of any adverse traits will likely be magnified.
How a lot worse it may very well be will rely upon the subsequent bits of knowledge to fall into place. It’s essential to determine who Omicron infects and in whom it causes extreme sickness or demise.
As well as, understanding when — and for the way lengthy — individuals contaminated with Omicron are contagious is essential for conserving the strapped healthcare sector from changing into overwhelmed, mentioned Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the Nationwide Faculty of Tropical Drugs at Baylor School of Drugs.
When will we all know?
The following two to eight weeks will likely be crucial, mentioned College of Minnesota epidemiologist Michael Osterholm. With its transmission superpowers, Omicron will most likely trigger a “nationwide blizzard” of instances, he mentioned. No area is prone to be spared, as a result of Omicron is simply too good at spreading.
How will we all know if Omicron makes individuals sicker?
In the USA, hospitalizations are the forex by which illness severity is most frequently judged. Hospital therapy runs the gamut from routine to crucial care, and a affected person’s journey is normally nicely documented, in contrast with being sick at dwelling.
However epidemiologists name hospitalization a “lagging indicator” of a virus’ virulence. Assuming Omicron’s many mutations haven’t modified the coronavirus’ primary sample of assault, it normally takes per week or two after signs first seem for a COVID-19 affected person to turn out to be sick sufficient to require hospitalization. Loss of life usually comes inside 30 days, though many sufferers maintain on for longer.
The pattern that may start to inform the story of Omicron’s virulence is a ratio. Researchers will calculate the variety of new Omicron infections reported on Day X and evaluate it with the variety of Omicron hospitalizations roughly two weeks later. They’ll additionally calculate the ratio of recent instances reported on Day X to COVID-19 deaths brought on by Omicron three to 4 weeks later.
“We’ll know there’s an issue if that ratio shifts,” Hotez mentioned.
One factor to notice: If Omicron is extra seemingly than earlier strains to trigger asymptomatic infections or extraordinarily gentle illness, and people sufferers don’t get examined, that would throw off the calculation in ways in which overestimate Omicron’s capacity to make individuals sick.
What’s occurring overseas, and what can that inform us?
The expertise of different nations the place Omicron has been circulating for longer can supply early clues of what we may very well be in for. However differing healthcare methods, vaccination standing and inhabitants demographics make the comparisons imperfect.
This week, the World Well being Group reported that hospitalizations in South Africa and the UK proceed to rise, and mentioned it was “potential” their healthcare methods could be overwhelmed. However the WHO additionally famous that information on the medical severity of Omicron infections are “nonetheless restricted.”
Earlier information from South Africa prompt Omicron infections would possibly trigger milder illness and lead to much less want for supplemental oxygen and hospitalization. And a preliminary examine launched Wednesday on the science-sharing web site MedRxiv discovered that vaccinated South African healthcare employees who had breakthrough infections involving Omicron have been a bit much less prone to require intensive hospital care than these whose breakthrough infections have been brought on by the Delta or Beta variants.
The U.Okay. Well being Safety Company this week reported 45,145 confirmed Omicron instances in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Eire, with 129 hospitalizations and 14 deaths most likely attributable to the brand new pressure. However instances may readily be 3 times as excessive, the company acknowledged. That uncertainty about what number of Omicron instances there actually are makes it difficult to pin down a neat ratio of instances to hospitalizations.
What wouldn’t it imply if Omicron sickened completely different teams of individuals?
Are males nonetheless barely extra prone to die than girls? Is COVID-19 nonetheless a illness almost definitely to trigger sickness and demise in aged individuals? Are asymptomatic infections nonetheless typical in kids? Over the approaching weeks and months, researchers will scour medical data and revisit current teams of examine individuals to seek out solutions to questions like these.
They’ll additionally look ahead to modifications in the best way Omicron infections play out to see whether or not hallmark signs like runaway irritation, blood-clotting abnormalities and lung harm stay key options of COVID-19. These findings may level to essential elements that make some individuals extra weak to Omicron, and thus in better want of vaccine safety.
What about kids?
South African researchers reported early on that kids appeared extra prone to be hospitalized in the event that they have been contaminated with Omicron — a pattern that might depart from previous variants, and will likely be intently watched.
If youthful sufferers usually stay much less prone to turn out to be unwell, will probably be essential to ascertain whether or not they nonetheless stay efficient virus spreaders.
Will vaccines nonetheless work?
Lab checks on Omicron have already indicated that the blood serum of vaccinated individuals is much less in a position to cease the virus from invading cells. However real-world information will likely be wanted to substantiate and flesh out these lab findings.
If people who find themselves vaccinated and boosted start filling up hospitals and dying, that will likely be grim proof that vaccine safety has been gravely undermined. To date, the CDC says two doses of mRNA vaccine seem to cut back the chance of extreme sickness with Omicron. However officers stress that including a booster shot will strengthen that safety, and so they’re urging vaccinated People to get one in the event that they’re eligible.
Science
Cluster of farmworkers diagnosed with rare animal-borne disease in Ventura County
A cluster of workers at Ventura County berry farms have been diagnosed with a rare disease often transmitted through sick animals’ urine, according to a public health advisory distributed to local doctors by county health officials Tuesday.
The bacterial infection, leptospirosis, has resulted in severe symptoms for some workers, including meningitis, an inflammation of the brain lining and spinal cord. Symptoms for mild cases included headaches and fevers.
The disease, which can be fatal, rarely spreads from human to human, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Ventura County Public Health has not given an official case count but said it had not identified any cases outside of the agriculture sector. The county’s agriculture commissioner was aware of 18 cases, the Ventura County Star reported.
The health department said it was first contacted by a local physician in October, who reported an unusual trend in symptoms among hospital patients.
After launching an investigation, the department identified leptospirosis as a probable cause of the illness and found most patients worked on caneberry farms that utilize hoop houses — greenhouse structures to shelter the crops.
As the investigation to identify any additional cases and the exact sources of exposure continues, Ventura County Public Health has asked healthcare providers to consider a leptospirosis diagnosis for sick agricultural workers, particularly berry harvesters.
Rodents are a common source and transmitter of disease, though other mammals — including livestock, cats and dogs — can transmit it as well.
The disease is spread through bodily fluids, such as urine, and is often contracted through cuts and abrasions that contact contaminated water and soil, where the bacteria can survive for months.
Humans can also contract the illness through contaminated food; however, the county health agency has found no known health risks to the general public, including through the contact or consumption of caneberries such as raspberries and blackberries.
Symptom onset typically occurs between two and 30 days after exposure, and symptoms can last for months if untreated, according to the CDC.
The illness often begins with mild symptoms, with fevers, chills, vomiting and headaches. Some cases can then enter a second, more severe phase that can result in kidney or liver failure.
Ventura County Public Health recommends agriculture and berry harvesters regularly rinse any cuts with soap and water and cover them with bandages. They also recommend wearing waterproof clothing and protection while working outdoors, including gloves and long-sleeve shirts and pants.
While there is no evidence of spread to the larger community, according to the department, residents should wash hands frequently and work to control rodents around their property if possible.
Pet owners can consult a veterinarian about leptospirosis vaccinations and should keep pets away from ponds, lakes and other natural bodies of water.
Science
Political stress: Can you stay engaged without sacrificing your mental health?
It’s been two weeks since Donald Trump won the presidential election, but Stacey Lamirand’s brain hasn’t stopped churning.
“I still think about the election all the time,” said the 60-year-old Bay Area resident, who wanted a Kamala Harris victory so badly that she flew to Pennsylvania and knocked on voters’ doors in the final days of the campaign. “I honestly don’t know what to do about that.”
Neither do the psychologists and political scientists who have been tracking the country’s slide toward toxic levels of partisanship.
Fully 69% of U.S. adults found the presidential election a significant source of stress in their lives, the American Psychological Assn. said in its latest Stress in America report.
The distress was present across the political spectrum, with 80% of Republicans, 79% of Democrats and 73% of independents surveyed saying they were stressed about the country’s future.
That’s unhealthy for the body politic — and for voters themselves. Stress can cause muscle tension, headaches, sleep problems and loss of appetite. Chronic stress can inflict more serious damage to the immune system and make people more vulnerable to heart attacks, strokes, diabetes, infertility, clinical anxiety, depression and other ailments.
In most circumstances, the sound medical advice is to disengage from the source of stress, therapists said. But when stress is coming from politics, that prescription pits the health of the individual against the health of the nation.
“I’m worried about people totally withdrawing from politics because it’s unpleasant,” said Aaron Weinschenk, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin–Green Bay who studies political behavior and elections. “We don’t want them to do that. But we also don’t want them to feel sick.”
Modern life is full of stressors of all kinds: paying bills, pleasing difficult bosses, getting along with frenemies, caring for children or aging parents (or both).
The stress that stems from politics isn’t fundamentally different from other kinds of stress. What’s unique about it is the way it encompasses and enhances other sources of stress, said Brett Ford, a social psychologist at the University of Toronto who studies the link between emotions and political engagement.
For instance, she said, elections have the potential to make everyday stressors like money and health concerns more difficult to manage as candidates debate policies that could raise the price of gas or cut off access to certain kinds of medical care.
Layered on top of that is the fact that political disagreements have morphed into moral conflicts that are perceived as pitting good against evil.
“When someone comes into power who is not on the same page as you morally, that can hit very deeply,” Ford said.
Partisanship and polarization have raised the stakes as well. Voters who feel a strong connection to a political party become more invested in its success. That can make a loss at the ballot box feel like a personal defeat, she said.
There’s also the fact that we have limited control over the outcome of an election. A patient with heart disease can improve their prognosis by taking medicine, changing their diet, getting more exercise or quitting smoking. But a person with political stress is largely at the mercy of others.
“Politics is many forms of stress all rolled into one,” Ford said.
Weinschenk observed this firsthand the day after the election.
“I could feel it when I went into my classroom,” said the professor, whose research has found that people with political anxiety aren’t necessarily anxious in general. “I have a student who’s transgender and a couple of students who are gay. Their emotional state was so closed down.”
That’s almost to be expected in a place like Wisconsin, whose swing-state status caused residents to be bombarded with political messages. The more campaign ads a person is exposed to, the greater the risk of being diagnosed with anxiety, depression or another psychological ailment, according to a 2022 study in the journal PLOS One.
Political messages seem designed to keep voters “emotionally on edge,” said Vaile Wright, a licensed psychologist in Villa Park, Ill., and a member of the APA’s Stress in America team.
“It encourages emotion to drive our decision-making behavior, as opposed to logic,” Wright said. “When we’re really emotionally stimulated, it makes it so much more challenging to have civil conversation. For politicians, I think that’s powerful, because emotions can be very easily manipulated.”
Making voters feel anxious is a tried-and-true way to grab their attention, said Christopher Ojeda, a political scientist at UC Merced who studies mental health and politics.
“Feelings of anxiety can be mobilizing, definitely,” he said. “That’s why politicians make fear appeals — they want people to get engaged.”
On the other hand, “feelings of depression are demobilizing and take you out of the political system,” said Ojeda, author of “The Sad Citizen: How Politics is Depressing and Why it Matters.”
“What [these feelings] can tell you is, ‘Things aren’t going the way I want them to. Maybe I need to step back,’” he said.
Genessa Krasnow has been seeing a lot of that since the election.
The Seattle entrepreneur, who also campaigned for Harris, said it grates on her to see people laughing in restaurants “as if nothing had happened.” At a recent book club meeting, her fellow group members were willing to let her vent about politics for five minutes, but they weren’t interested in discussing ways they could counteract the incoming president.
“They’re in a state of disengagement,” said Krasnow, who is 56. She, meanwhile, is looking for new ways to reach young voters.
“I am exhausted. I am so sad,” she said. “But I don’t believe that disengaging is the answer.”
That’s the fundamental trade-off, Ojeda said, and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution.
“Everyone has to make a decision about how much engagement they can tolerate without undermining their psychological well-being,” he said.
Lamirand took steps to protect her mental health by cutting social media ties with people whose values aren’t aligned with hers. But she will remain politically active and expects to volunteer for phone-banking duty soon.
“Doing something is the only thing that allows me to feel better,” Lamirand said. “It allows me to feel some level of control.”
Ideally, Ford said, people would not have to choose between being politically active and preserving their mental health. She is investigating ways to help people feel hopeful, inspired and compassionate about political challenges, since these emotions can motivate action without triggering stress and anxiety.
“We want to counteract this pattern where the more involved you are, the worse you are,” Ford said.
The benefits would be felt across the political spectrum. In the APA survey, similar shares of Democrats, Republicans and independents agreed with statements like, “It causes me stress that politicians aren’t talking about the things that are most important to me,” and, “The political climate has caused strain between my family members and me.”
“Both sides are very invested in this country, and that is a good thing,” Wright said. “Antipathy and hopelessness really doesn’t serve us in the long run.”
Science
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