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Column: The richest Americans finished paying their Social Security taxes last week. Most of us will pay all year

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Column: The richest Americans finished paying their Social Security taxes last week. Most of us will pay all year

Here are some rough calculations of when some of America’s richest individuals fulfilled their Social Security tax obligations for 2025: For Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook, it was at about 2 p.m. on New Year’s Day. For McDonald’s CEO Christopher Kempczinski, sometime on the morning of Jan. 3. For Elon Musk, it was sometime around 12:31 a.m. New Year’s Day.

For most of the rest of us, it won’t happen until next New Year’s Eve.

The real figures on the payroll tax liabilities of the America’s plutocrat class are necessarily murky, for reasons we’ll get to in a moment. But they tell a dismal story nonetheless, as set forth annually by labor economist Teresa Ghilarducci of the New School.

A lot of income escapes the Social Security system; and the escaping income is that from the wealthiest Americans.

— Economist Teresa Ghilarducci

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The story is one of rising economic inequality in United States — and more specifically how our tax system is designed to benefit the wealthy rather than ordinary workers. Anyone needing empirical evidence of these conditions need not look beyond the way we fund Social Security, our indispensable federal retirement and disability program.

Although the program is designed to provide universal coverage, the burden of paying for it falls disproportionately on the working class. Under the program’s current structure, benefits are progressive — they come to a larger percentage of lifetime earnings for lower-income retirees — but the tax is regressive, amounting to less as a percentage of income as income rises.

At least 230 of the richest Americans already have paid their Social Security tax for the year, Ghilarducci reports. That’s because wage earnings of $176,100 or more this year — the cap on wages taxed by Social Security — are exempt, and their income is so high that they reached the ceiling within days or even minutes of the New Year’s ball dropping at Times Square.

“A civil engineer earning $176,100 per year looks the same as Elon Musk in the eyes of the Social Security system,” Ghilarducci writes. By contrast, “over 164 million workers (about 94% of us) pay Social Security taxes all year long. The point is a lot of income escapes the Social Security system; and the escaping income is that from the wealthiest Americans.”

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One of the most effective Social Security reforms proposed by Democrats is to raise or (preferably) eliminate the payroll tax cap. But that change doesn’t go quite far enough. What’s necessary, as Ghilarducci correctly observes, is to bring more income categories — interest, business receipts, capital gains — into the definition of earnings.

“Taxing the expanded base could more than pay for promised Social Security benefits for 35 years and there would even be some money to eliminate poverty among all Social Security recipients,” she observes.

Here’s a brief primer on the payroll tax, which typically appears on pay stubs under the label “FICA” (for “Federal Insurance Contributions Act”). For Social Security, it comes to 12.4% of gross wage income, shared equally by worker and employer, up to an annually adjusted cap. In 2025, the cap is $176,100, up from $168,600 last year. That means that you’ll pay a maximum of $10,918 directly in Social Security tax this year, with your employer paying the same sum on your behalf. (Self-employed workers have to pay both levies.)

Workers and employers each pay an additional 1.45%, with no cap, to help fund Medicare. The richest taxpayers may also be subject to a 3.8% tax on some of their investment income.

Two aspects of the payroll tax are boons for the wealthy. One is that it applies only to wages, tips, bonuses, commissions, and some fringe benefits — generally, almost anything that appears on the annual W-2 forms workers receive from their employers. “Unearned income” such as interest, dividends and capital gains distributions isn’t counted.

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That’s important because unearned income tends to represent a greater share of total income for the wealthy compared with the rank-and-file.

In tax year 2022 (the most recent for which the IRS provides statistics), W-2 income accounted on average for about 75% of the total income reported by households with adjusted gross income of $50,000-$75,000. For households with income of $1 million or more, only about 25% was subject to the payroll tax. For those with income of $10 million or more (averaging about $30.4 million each), only about 12% on average was subject to the payroll tax — and then only up to the FICA cap.

To put it another way, any workers earning wages of $176,100 or less this year will pay 6.2% of their pay in Social Security tax. For someone earning $10 million, assuming all of it comes in wages, the tax rate is 0.11%.

That brings us to the complexities involved in gauging the income of America’s richest individuals, notably top corporate executives. Mostly to reduce corporate and income taxes, companies tend to keep the cash components of their executives’ pay as meager as possible, as opposed to stock and stock options. The latter aren’t subject to the payroll tax.

Apple, for example, listed Cook’s total compensation for 2023 (the most recent year reported) as $63.2 million. But only $3 million of that was in salary, plus another $10.7 million reported as a cash incentive tied to the company’s performance. An additional $2.5 million was paid for items such as security services and personal travel on private aircraft, which Apple requires Cook to use “for security and efficiency reasons.” Cook may have to pay tax on some of those items.

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It’s difficult, and in some cases impossible, to figure out how much in cash a top corporate executive actually pockets in any year. The Securities and Exchange Commission implemented a regulation in 2022 mandating that public companies disclose “compensation actually paid” to top executives, ostensibly so shareholders could accurately assess how the money paid to the C-suite corresponded to a company’s performance.

In practice, however, the resulting metrics obscure almost as much as they reveal. Apple, for example, disclosed in its 2024 proxy statement that in 2023 it “actually paid” $106.6 million to Cook — but it also stated that the figure “does not represent cash or equity value realized or paid” to Cook, or to the company’s four other top executives.

Rather, the “actually paid” disclosure is merely a way to adjust the value of stock options and other equity awards given to the executives, as the value of the underlying shares rises or falls. So if you’re trying to determine how much more the bank accounts of executives swelled during the year, this is no help.

Musk’s income from Tesla, his publicly traded electric vehicle company, is especially hard to gauge. (Ghilarducci says she based her estimate of Musk’s potential tax liability on “public data on Musk’s income,” including nonwage income.)

According to Tesla’s disclosure, Musk received no salary, bonus, stock or options from 2021 through 2023. That may have something to do with the issues connected with his groundbreaking $56-billion 2018 pay package, which was challenged in a shareholder lawsuit. The pay package was overturned in January 2024 by Delaware Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick, who found it excessive and not the product of an arm’s length negotiation between Musk and the Tesla board. (Tesla didn’t respond to my request for comment.)

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That points to how the wealthy exploit their assets without incurring income tax, whether on ordinary or “unearned” income: They borrow against them. Tesla has disclosed that as of last March, Musk had pledged more than 238.4 million of his Tesla shares — about one-third of the total 715 million shares of which he was listed as beneficial owner — as “collateral to secure certain personal indebtedness.” The pledged stock is worth about $95 billion at the current stock price. The proceeds of loans aren’t generally treated as taxable income unless the loan is forgiven.

Tesla disclosed in its proxy statement in April that the compensation it “actually paid” Musk came to $1.4 billion in 2023. But it stated — as Apple did in relation to Cook’s pay — that the figure did “not reflect the actual amount of compensation earned by or paid to Mr. Musk” that year. It was merely an artifact of adjustments to the putative value of his stock grants as it fluctuated in relation to the value of the underlying shares.

So whether Musk paid his entire payroll tax obligation by 15 minutes into 2025 (as Ghilarducci estimated based on Musk’s total Tesla-connected wealth), or owed nothing and has paid nothing can’t be determined.

All we can say is this: The run-up of wealth among a tiny camp of mega-billionaires comes at great social cost. Conservatives and Republicans in Congress continue to claim that the cost of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid benefits is an insupportable burden on America, so benefits need to be cut, though President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to preserve entitlements like Social Security and Medicare.

But if the wealthy paid their fair share of the cost of those programs, they might well be solvent, even flush enough for benefits to be expanded and extended, into the limitless future.

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Polymarket Bets on Paris Temperature Prompt Investigation After Unusual Spikes

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Polymarket Bets on Paris Temperature Prompt Investigation After Unusual Spikes

Early in April, Ruben Hallali got an unusual alert on his phone: The evening temperature at Paris Charles de Gaulle International Airport had jumped about 6 degrees Fahrenheit in seconds.

Mr. Hallali, the chief executive of the weather risk company Sereno, had set up notifications for extreme weather swings. Then, nine days later, it happened again.

“It was an isolated jump, at one single station, early in the evening,” said Mr. Hallali, who added that he noticed another strange coincidence about the spikes: The timing was just right for somebody to reap a windfall on the betting site Polymarket.

He wasn’t the only one who sensed a problem. Météo-France, the country’s national meteorological service, filed a complaint last week with the police and local prosecutors, saying it had evidence that a weather sensor at Charles de Gaulle, the country’s largest airport, may have been tampered with.

The temperature swings, experts said, coincided with a period of unusual activity on Polymarket, one of the leading online prediction markets, which allow users to wager on the outcome of virtually anything.

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One increasingly popular area is weather betting, where speculators can make real-time wagers on temperature readings, rainfall totals, the number of Atlantic hurricanes in a year and much more — with payouts in the thousands of dollars and higher.

As the stakes rise, so has the temptation to tamper with the instruments used to generate weather readings in hopes of engineering a lucrative outcome. Experts warn that this could have dangerous ripple effects, like degrading the information that underpins safe air travel.

Temperature data is used in a host of calculations at airports, helping determine correct takeoff distance, climb rate and whether crews need to apply frost treatment to planes. It’s crucial to airport safety, Mr. Hallali said.

“The Charles de Gaulle incident is not an isolated curiosity,” Mr. Hallali said. “It is what happens when financial incentives meet fragile data infrastructure.”

On April 6, the temperature reading at Charles de Gaulle jumped from 64 degrees Fahrenheit to 70 degrees at 7 p.m., before slowly falling over the next hour, according to data from Météo-France.

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On April 15, the recorded temperature climbed even more sharply, from 61 degrees at 9 p.m. to 72 at 9:30 p.m., then dropping back to 61 a half-hour later.

In both instances, the spikes set the high temperature for the day, the metric on which some Polymarket wagers rest.

Laurent Becler, a spokesman for Météo-France, said the service contacted the police after noticing the discrepancies in temperature data. He declined to comment further on the case, saying it was under investigation.

Mr. Hallali said that after the first instance, experts and commenters on the French weather forum Infoclimat began to search answers. Theories were floated, including user error. But after the second spike, commenters zeroed in on the unusual Polymarket wagers, which totaled nearly $1.4 million over the two days, according to the company’s data.

The sums bet on April 6 and 15 were hundreds of thousands of dollars higher than on typical days this month.

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It is not the first time that strange bets on prediction markets have raised accusations of insider trading.

On Thursday, a U.S. Army special forces soldier who helped capture President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela in January was charged with using classified information to bet on outcomes related to Venezuela, making more than $400,000 on Polymarket. Late last year, another trader on the site made roughly $300,000 betting on last-minute pardons from President Joseph R. Biden Jr. before he left office.

Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment. While the site used to tie some bets to temperature readings at Charles de Gaulle, this week, after Météo-France filed its complaint, the platform began using temperatures taken at another airport near the city, Paris-Le Bourget, according to recent bets on the site.

Representatives for Charles de Gaulle airport declined to comment beyond saying that the case was under investigation. The airport police also declined to comment. The Bobigny Public Prosecutor’s Office, which is handling the case, declined to answer questions about the investigation but said that no complaint had been filed against Polymarket.

As to how the instruments could have been tampered with, a number of theories have been offered online, including by use of a hair dryer or a lighter. Mr. Hallali said that the precision of the spike on April 15 suggested the use of a calibrated portable heating device, although he declined to speculate about what kind.

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“Markets are expanding into every domain where an outcome can be observed, measured, and settled,” he said. “As these markets multiply, so does the surface area for manipulation.”

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California’s jet fuel stockpile hits two-year low as war strangles oil supplies

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California’s jet fuel stockpile hits two-year low as war strangles oil supplies

As the war in Iran strangles the flow of oil around the globe, California’s jet fuel reservoirs are running low.

The state — which refines much of its own fuel in El Segundo and elsewhere but still relies on crude oil imports — has seen its jet fuel stock decline by more than 25% from last year’s peak to a level not seen since 2023, according to data from the California Energy Commission.

The supply is shrinking as a global shortage is already affecting travelers’ summer plans with canceled flights and higher fares. It could even affect plans for people coming to Los Angeles for the 2026 World Cup, which starts in June, said Mike Duignan, a hospitality expert and professor at Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne University.

“People don’t know exactly how this is going to escalate,” he said. “There’s a huge black cloud over the sea for the World Cup and the travel slump that we’re seeing is all linked to this oil shortage.”

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As fuel supplies shrink, flight prices are rising. Airlines are adding baggage surcharges to cover fuel costs. Several routes leaving from smaller California hubs, including Sacramento and Burbank, have already been canceled.

Air Canada has suspended flights for this summer, cutting routes from JFK to Toronto and Montreal.

“Jet fuel prices have doubled since the start of the Iran conflict, affecting some lower profitability routes and flights which now are no longer economically feasible,” the airline said in a statement last week.

Europe had just more than a month’s supply of jet fuel left last week, the International Energy Agency said. In an effort to cut costs, the German airline Lufthansa slashed 20,000 flights from its summer schedule this week.

Without a fresh oil supply flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, the situation is unlikely to improve, experts said. The oil reserves countries and companies have in storage are helping fill shortfalls, but the squeezed supply chain could still wreak economic havoc.

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“When there’s a shortage somewhere, everything is affected,” said Alan Fyall, an associate dean of the University of Central Florida Rosen College of Hospitality Management. “Airlines are being cautious, and I would say that is a very wise strategy at the moment.”

California’s jet fuel stock reached its lowest levels in two and a half years at 2.6 million barrels last week, down from a peak of more than 3.5 million barrels last year.

The California Energy Commission, which tracks fuel inventory, said the state’s current jet fuel stock is sill sufficient.

“Current production and inventory levels of jet fuel are within historical ranges,” a spokesperson said. “Although supply is tight, no structural deficit has emerged yet. The present tightness reflects short‑term global market stress. As long as refinery operations remain stable, California is positioned to meet regional jet fuel needs.”

Europe has been affected more directly because it relies on the Middle East for the vast majority of its crude oil and many refined products, experts said. California gets crude oil from the Middle East but also from Canada, Argentina and Guyana.

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The state has the capacity to refine around 200,000 barrels of jet fuel per day, most of it from refineries in El Segundo and Richmond.

The amount of crude oil originating in the state has been declining since the early 2000s, as state regulations and drilling costs have led to more imports.

California has become particularly vulnerable to supply-chain shocks like the war in Iran, says Chevron, one of the companies that provides jet fuel in the state.

“The conflict in the Mideast Gulf has exposed the danger of California’s decision to offshore energy production,” said Ross Allen, a Chevron spokesperson. “Taxes, red tape and burdensome regulations cost the state nearly 18% of its refinery capacity in just the past year, and we urge policymakers to protect the remaining manufacturing capacity.”

In 2025, 61% of crude oil supply to California’s refineries came from foreign sources, according to the California Energy Commission. Around 23% came from inside the state, down from 35% five years ago.

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The state’s refining capacity has also been declining, said Jesus David, senior vice president of Energy at IIR Energy. The West Coast region’s refining capacity has decreased from 2.9 million to 2.3 million barrels a day since 2019, he said.

“California’s had issues prior to the war,” David said. “Nothing new has been built over the past 30 years, and California has closed a lot of capacity.”

The result is higher prices for both gasoline and jet fuel in the state. Jet fuel at LAX costs close to $15 per gallon this week, compared with almost $10 at Denver International Airport and $11 at Newark International Airport.

Gasoline prices have also been hit hard by the global conflict. Average gas prices in California are close to $6 a gallon, around $2 higher than the national average.

The West Coast is a “fuel island” because it’s not connected by pipelines to the rest of the country, United Airlines chief executive Scott Kirby said in an interview last month. That means oil and refined products have to be brought in by ships.

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“Fuel price is more susceptible to supply weakness on the West Coast than anywhere else in the country,” Kirby said.

Some airlines might not survive the turmoil if oil prices don’t level out soon, he said. Spirit Airlines, a budget carrier based in Florida, is reportedly facing imminent liquidation if it isn’t bailed out by the Trump administration.

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Nike to Cut 1,400 Jobs as Part of Its Turnaround Plan

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Nike to Cut 1,400 Jobs as Part of Its Turnaround Plan

Nike is cutting about 1,400 jobs in its operations division, mostly from its technology department, the company said Thursday.

In a note to employees, Venkatesh Alagirisamy, the chief operating officer of Nike, said that management was nearly done reorganizing the business for its turnaround plan, and that the goal was to operate with “more speed, simplicity and precision.”

“This is not a new direction,” Mr. Alagirisamy told employees. “It is the next phase of the work already underway.”

Nike, the world’s largest sportswear company, is trying to recover after missteps led to a prolonged sales slump, in which the brand leaned into lifestyle products and away from performance shoes and apparel. Elliott Hill, the chief executive, has worked to realign the company around sports and speed up product development to create more breakthrough innovations.

In March, Nike told investors that it expected sales to fall this year, with growth in North America offset by poor performance in Asia, where the brand is struggling to rejuvenate sales in China. Executives said at the time that more volatility brought on by the war in the Middle East and rising oil prices might continue to affect its business.

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The reorganization has involved cuts across many parts of the organization, including at its headquarters in Beaverton, Ore. Nike slashed some corporate staff last year and eliminated nearly 800 jobs at distribution centers in January.

“You never want to have to go through any sort of layoffs, but to re-center the company, we’re doing some of that,” Mr. Hill said in an interview earlier this year.

Mr. Alagirisamy told employees that Nike was reshaping its technology team and centering employees at its headquarters and a tech center in Bengaluru, India. The layoffs will affect workers across North America, Europe and Asia.

The cuts will also affect staffing in Nike’s factories for Air, the company’s proprietary cushioning system. Employees who work on the supply chain for raw materials will also experience changes as staff is integrated into footwear and apparel teams.

Nike’s Converse brand, which has struggled for years to revive sales, will move some of its engineering resources closer to the factories they support, the company said.

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Mr. Alagirisamy said the moves were necessary to optimize Nike’s supply chain, deploy technology faster and bolster relationships with suppliers.

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