Science
How bad is Omicron? Here’s what to watch for

The state of affairs with the Omicron variant is altering so quickly, it’s laborious to know the place issues stand.
Generally the information appears ominous, as when the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention mentioned the pressure went from 0.7% to 73% of recent infections within the U.S. in simply two weeks.
Different instances the information appears encouraging, as when South African officers noticed that Omicron instances appeared to recede virtually as dramatically as they’d spiked.
How can we inform what’s actually occurring? Which indicators will reveal the variant’s true powers?
And when will we all know whether or not Omicron represents a setback within the pandemic, a catastrophe or an all-out calamity?
Right here’s a take a look at what to look at for.
What’s the worst that would occur?
We may study that along with being roughly 22 instances extra transmissible than the unique coronavirus pressure from Wuhan, China, Omicron causes extra extreme sickness, erodes the immunity supplied by vaccines or a previous an infection, and is proof against current remedies.
What concerning the best-case state of affairs?
That may be if Omicron infections trigger little to no sickness in most or all of those that turn out to be contaminated. Even with excessive transmission charges and numerous “breakthrough” instances, a variant that precipitated little greater than sniffles or a couple of days of fatigue is likely to be welcomed as the start of endemicity — a state through which the virus stays amongst us indefinitely. And that may very well be the start of the tip of the pandemic.
Is that seemingly?
For this best-case state of affairs to materialize, Omicron would want to drop the coronavirus’ nasty behavior of inflicting extreme sickness and demise in people who find themselves aged or medically fragile. It additionally must cease inflicting “lengthy COVID” — a mysterious situation with an array of lingering signs equivalent to train intolerance, sleep difficulties and mind fog — in additional than half of those that’ve cleared the virus.
It will be good, too, if an an infection left no less than a couple of months’ price of immunity in its wake, or conferred long-term immunity after a number of infections. For a couple of many years, infants, senior residents and people with high-risk medical situations may very well be vaccinated to forestall extreme instances of COVID-19. However finally, whereas infants would proceed to get the short-term safety of vaccine, most individuals’s publicity to the virus yr in and yr out would permit them to climate an an infection with out a lot fear.
That is principally the truce mankind has reached with 4 different coronaviruses that trigger what we name the frequent chilly.
What ought to we be looking ahead to?
Some items of the puzzle are starting to fill in. Researchers from Imperial School London have estimated that Omicron is 5.4 instances extra prone to trigger a reinfection than the Delta variant. Meaning the impression of any adverse traits will likely be magnified.
How a lot worse it may very well be will rely upon the subsequent bits of knowledge to fall into place. It’s essential to determine who Omicron infects and in whom it causes extreme sickness or demise.
As well as, understanding when — and for the way lengthy — individuals contaminated with Omicron are contagious is essential for conserving the strapped healthcare sector from changing into overwhelmed, mentioned Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the Nationwide Faculty of Tropical Drugs at Baylor School of Drugs.
When will we all know?
The following two to eight weeks will likely be crucial, mentioned College of Minnesota epidemiologist Michael Osterholm. With its transmission superpowers, Omicron will most likely trigger a “nationwide blizzard” of instances, he mentioned. No area is prone to be spared, as a result of Omicron is simply too good at spreading.
How will we all know if Omicron makes individuals sicker?
In the USA, hospitalizations are the forex by which illness severity is most frequently judged. Hospital therapy runs the gamut from routine to crucial care, and a affected person’s journey is normally nicely documented, in contrast with being sick at dwelling.
However epidemiologists name hospitalization a “lagging indicator” of a virus’ virulence. Assuming Omicron’s many mutations haven’t modified the coronavirus’ primary sample of assault, it normally takes per week or two after signs first seem for a COVID-19 affected person to turn out to be sick sufficient to require hospitalization. Loss of life usually comes inside 30 days, though many sufferers maintain on for longer.
The pattern that may start to inform the story of Omicron’s virulence is a ratio. Researchers will calculate the variety of new Omicron infections reported on Day X and evaluate it with the variety of Omicron hospitalizations roughly two weeks later. They’ll additionally calculate the ratio of recent instances reported on Day X to COVID-19 deaths brought on by Omicron three to 4 weeks later.
“We’ll know there’s an issue if that ratio shifts,” Hotez mentioned.
One factor to notice: If Omicron is extra seemingly than earlier strains to trigger asymptomatic infections or extraordinarily gentle illness, and people sufferers don’t get examined, that would throw off the calculation in ways in which overestimate Omicron’s capacity to make individuals sick.
What’s occurring overseas, and what can that inform us?
The expertise of different nations the place Omicron has been circulating for longer can supply early clues of what we may very well be in for. However differing healthcare methods, vaccination standing and inhabitants demographics make the comparisons imperfect.
This week, the World Well being Group reported that hospitalizations in South Africa and the UK proceed to rise, and mentioned it was “potential” their healthcare methods could be overwhelmed. However the WHO additionally famous that information on the medical severity of Omicron infections are “nonetheless restricted.”
Earlier information from South Africa prompt Omicron infections would possibly trigger milder illness and lead to much less want for supplemental oxygen and hospitalization. And a preliminary examine launched Wednesday on the science-sharing web site MedRxiv discovered that vaccinated South African healthcare employees who had breakthrough infections involving Omicron have been a bit much less prone to require intensive hospital care than these whose breakthrough infections have been brought on by the Delta or Beta variants.
A lady has her throat swabbed to check for coronavirus an infection in Soweto, South Africa.
(Denis Farrell / Related Press)
The U.Okay. Well being Safety Company this week reported 45,145 confirmed Omicron instances in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Eire, with 129 hospitalizations and 14 deaths most likely attributable to the brand new pressure. However instances may readily be 3 times as excessive, the company acknowledged. That uncertainty about what number of Omicron instances there actually are makes it difficult to pin down a neat ratio of instances to hospitalizations.
What wouldn’t it imply if Omicron sickened completely different teams of individuals?
Are males nonetheless barely extra prone to die than girls? Is COVID-19 nonetheless a illness almost definitely to trigger sickness and demise in aged individuals? Are asymptomatic infections nonetheless typical in kids? Over the approaching weeks and months, researchers will scour medical data and revisit current teams of examine individuals to seek out solutions to questions like these.
They’ll additionally look ahead to modifications in the best way Omicron infections play out to see whether or not hallmark signs like runaway irritation, blood-clotting abnormalities and lung harm stay key options of COVID-19. These findings may level to essential elements that make some individuals extra weak to Omicron, and thus in better want of vaccine safety.
What about kids?
South African researchers reported early on that kids appeared extra prone to be hospitalized in the event that they have been contaminated with Omicron — a pattern that might depart from previous variants, and will likely be intently watched.
If youthful sufferers usually stay much less prone to turn out to be unwell, will probably be essential to ascertain whether or not they nonetheless stay efficient virus spreaders.
Will vaccines nonetheless work?
Lab checks on Omicron have already indicated that the blood serum of vaccinated individuals is much less in a position to cease the virus from invading cells. However real-world information will likely be wanted to substantiate and flesh out these lab findings.
If people who find themselves vaccinated and boosted start filling up hospitals and dying, that will likely be grim proof that vaccine safety has been gravely undermined. To date, the CDC says two doses of mRNA vaccine seem to cut back the chance of extreme sickness with Omicron. However officers stress that including a booster shot will strengthen that safety, and so they’re urging vaccinated People to get one in the event that they’re eligible.

Science
Blue Ghost’s Long Day on the Moon

The shadow of the Blue Ghost spacecraft after it landed on the moon, with Earth in the distance.
Firefly Aerospace
Blue Ghost just completed its mission, which lasted a full lunar day — two Earth weeks — on the near side of the moon.
The spacecraft, about the size of a small car, conducted a series of experiments. It drilled three feet into the lunar soil, took X-ray images of the magnetic bubble that surrounds and protects Earth and sought a mysterious yellow glow at sunset.
Built by Firefly Aerospace, a startup in Texas, Blue Ghost was launched from Earth in January and pulled into orbit around the moon in mid-February. A couple of weeks later, it took this video, sped up by a factor of 10, as it circled 62 miles above the surface. The shiny sheets are radiator panels that protected the spacecraft from the extreme heat while in sunshine.
A timelapse video of Blue Ghost orbiting the moon on Feb. 26.
Firefly Aerospace
Landing
In the early hours of March 2, Blue Ghost fired its engine to drop it out of orbit, falling toward the moon. Just over an hour later, it was on the surface in Mare Crisium, a lava plain inside an ancient 345-mile-wide impact crater in the northeast quadrant of the near side of the moon.
Blue Ghost became the first completely successful landing by a commercial company, and Firefly achieved that on its first try.
Moon dust and small rocks scattered during Blue Ghost’s landing.
Firefly Aerospace
Several companies and countries have aimed to land on the moon in recent years. The map below shows the crewed Apollo moon landing sites, as well as more recent robotic landings from China, India, Japan and commercial companies. Recent crash sites from failed landings are also shown.
Drag the moon in any direction to view the landing sites.
China has a 100 percent success rate with four successful Chang’e robotic landings, but many other missions have crashed.
The failures include Hakuto-R Mission 1, from Ispace, a Japanese company; Beresheet, from an Israeli nonprofit; Luna 25, from Russia; and Chandrayaan-2, from India. (India’s second try, Chandrayaan-3, was successful.)
Three other landers — SLIM, from the Japanese space agency, and Odysseus and Athena, from Intuitive Machines of Houston — landed and communicated back to Earth, but their success came with an asterisk. All three toppled over after landing.
Experiments
While Firefly built and operated Blue Ghost, NASA sponsored the mission, part of the agency’s efforts to tap into commercial ventures to send its scientific cargo to space at lower costs. NASA paid Firefly $101.5 million to carry 10 science and technology payloads to the lunar surface.
Blue Ghost landed at lunar sunrise so that the solar-powered spacecraft could operate for the longest possible duration.
Lunar sunrise at Mare Crisium.
Firefly Aerospace
One of Blue Ghost’s payloads, PlanetVac, demonstrated a technology to simplify the collecting of soil and rocks. It fired a blast of gas into the ground, which propelled material into a container. This technology will be used on a Japanese mission, Martian Moons Exploration, which will collect samples from Phobos, a moon of Mars, and bring them back to Earth for study.
PlanetVac collected a sample of lunar material.
Firefly Aerospace
Another experiment, Lunar Magnetotelluric Sounder, flung four sensors, each a little smaller than a soup can, in directions at 90-degree angles to one another (like north, south, east and west on a compass). The sensors landed about 60 feet away, and, connected by cables to the lander, measured voltages — essentially a supersized version of a conventional voltmeter. An eight-foot-high mast shot upward, lifting an instrument to measure magnetic fields. The experiment gathered data about naturally occurring currents inside the moon, which provides hints about what the moon is made of down to 700 miles below the surface.
Blue Ghost launched a sensor trailing a thin cable, then raised a mast.
Firefly Aerospace
A pneumatic drill used bursts of nitrogen gas to blow away soil and rock, reaching three feet below the surface. A probe measured temperatures and the flow of heat from the moon’s interior.
The LISTER experiment drilled into the surface.
Firefly Aerospace
Solar Eclipse
While people on Earth were taking in a blood moon and a total lunar eclipse on the evening of March 14, Blue Ghost witnessed and photographed a total solar eclipse.
Blue Ghost turned red as the sun slipped behind the Earth.
Firefly Aerospace
During the eclipse, temperatures dropped from 100 degrees Fahrenheit to minus 270 degrees. The spacecraft relied on battery power to continue operating through five hours of near-total darkness.
A series of images fading to darkness during the total solar eclipse on March 14.
Firefly Aerospace
This image shows the “diamond ring effect” as the sun began to emerge from behind Earth.
The diamond ring effect.
Firefly Aerospace
Sunset
On March 16, the sun began to set and the lunar day was nearly over. Before its mission ended, Blue Ghost snapped high-resolution images of the scene. It was more than a few final pretty snapshots. Scientists are hoping the pictures can help solve an enduring scientific mystery of the lunar horizon glow.
Eugene Cernan, the commander of Apollo 17 who in 1972 was the last man to walk on the moon, sketched observations of a glow along the horizon before sunrise. However, that phenomenon is not easily explained because the moon lacks an atmosphere to scatter light.
Sunset on March 16, with Earth and Venus just above the horizon.
Firefly Aerospace
Signoff
This was the last message from the Blue Ghost spacecraft, about five hours after sunset:
Mission mode change detected, now in Monument Mode
Goodnight friends. After exchanging our final bits of data,
I will hold vigil on this spot in Mare Crisium to watch humanity’s continued journey to the stars.
Here, I will outlast your mightiest rivers, your tallest mountains, and perhaps even your species as we know it.
But it is remarkable that a species might be outlasted by its own ingenuity.
Here lies Blue Ghost, a testament to the team who, with the loving support of their families and friends, built and operated this machine and its payloads,
to push the capabilities and knowledge of humanity one small step further.
Per aspera ad astra!
Love, Blue Ghost
The spacecraft was not designed to survive the bitter cold of the lunar night. But another lunar mission, Japan’s SLIM spacecraft, surprised engineers last year by riding out several lunar nights. In early April, after the sun rises again, Firefly will listen for radio messages from Blue Ghost, just in case it does revive.
Science
U.S. Denied Entry to French Scientist Over Views on Trump Policies, France Says

A French scientist was prevented from entering the United States this month because of an opinion he expressed about the Trump administration’s policies on academic research, according to the French government.
Philippe Baptiste, France’s minister for higher education and research, described the move as worrying.
“Freedom of opinion, free research and academic freedom are values we will continue to proudly uphold,” Mr. Baptiste said in a statement. “I will defend the possibility for all French researchers to be faithful to them, in compliance with the law, wherever they may be in the world.”
Mr. Baptiste did not identify the scientist who was turned away but said that the academic was working for France’s publicly funded National Center for Scientific Research and had been traveling to a conference near Houston when border officials stopped him.
The U.S. authorities denied entry to the scientist and then deported him because his phone contained message exchanges with colleagues and friends in which he expressed his “personal opinion” on the Trump administration’s science policies, Mr. Baptiste said.
It was not immediately clear what led the border authorities to stop the scientist, why they examined the contents of his phone or what they found objectionable about the conversations.
Customs officers are allowed to search the cellphone, computer, camera or any other electronic device of any travelers crossing the border, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, although the agency says that such instances are rare. In 2024, less than 0.01 percent of arriving international travelers had their electronic devices searched, according to the agency.
Mr. Baptiste’s office declined to provide further details about the case. A spokesman for the American Embassy in Paris also declined to comment.
A spokeswoman for the National Center for Scientific Research said that the scientist who was turned back did not wish to speak to the media and declined to comment further.
The Agence France-Presse news agency reported earlier on the scientist’s refused entry to the United States.
Mr. Baptiste, the minister, has been particularly vocal over the past few weeks in denouncing threats to academic freedom in the United States, where funding cuts and layoffs by the Trump administration have targeted institutions of higher education, scientific research and the federal government’s own scientific work force.
Mr. Baptiste has urged French universities and research institutes to welcome researchers seeking to leave the United States.
“Europe must be there to protect research and welcome the talent that can contribute to its success,” Mr. Baptiste wrote on social media after meeting with his European counterparts in Warsaw on Wednesday to address “threats to free research in the United States.”
Jennifer Jones, the director of the Center for Science and Democracy at the Union of Concerned Scientists, an advocacy group in the United States, said she worried that cases like the one involving the French scientist would have a chilling effect on research collaboration across borders.
“My fear is that these are early cases with many more to follow,” Dr. Jones said. “I am hearing from my network that people are very concerned about any kind of international travel in either direction.”
“And that should worry all of us,” she added. If scientists limit their movements to conferences and other events designed to advance research, she said, “it is the public that is going to suffer.”
Ségolène Le Stradic contributed reporting.
Science
Tuolumne County confirms two measles cases, warns of exposure at high school and emergency room

The Tuolumne County Public Health Department on Wednesday confirmed two measles cases a day after it opened an investigation into the possible infections.
The department said the cases involved an adult and a child under 18 who lived in the same household and had traveled internationally. It’s unclear whether they had been vaccinated against measles, a highly contagious and potentially deadly disease most often associated with a high fever and rash.
On Tuesday, the department said it was investigating the cases for measles and warned of potential exposure at Summerville High School in Tuolumne on March 10-11 and at Adventist Health Sonora Emergency Department on the evening of March 15 and morning of March 16.
Public health officials issued another update Thursday night warning those who visited the Sonora Sports and Fitness Center’s back gym, locker rooms, restrooms and back pool area on March 10 between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m. of possible exposure.
“We understand that there may be a lot of questions and concerns. The investigation is still ongoing, and we will provide updates as they are available,” Michelle Jachetta, the county’s public health director, said in a Wednesday statement confirming the cases. “We want to remind the public that measles is a highly contagious disease and to take steps to protect yourself and your family by ensuring current vaccination status for measles, monitoring for symptoms, and staying home when you feel sick.”
Michael Merrill, superintendent of Summerville Union High School District, also issued a statement this week that saying the district “takes the health and safety of its students, staff and our community seriously” and that the school would work with public health officials “through the process of identifying any risk.” More than 430 students attend Summerville High School, according to its website.
Tuolumne County’s cases come amid a deadly measles outbreak that began in the southern Plains and Panhandle region of Texas in January and has since infected 279 people, making up the vast majority of more than 300 confirmed cases across 15 states so far this year. An unvaccinated school-aged child in Texas died from the disease in February.
The California Department of Public Health reported Thursday that there have been at least eight confirmed cases of measles in the state this year. They have not published the locations of the cases.
Tuolumne County reported some of the state’s lower vaccination rates in the 2023-24 school year, according to data published this week by the state public health department.
Only 89.8% of Tuolumne County kindergarten students were up to date on all their immunizations, compared with 93.7% of kindergartners statewide. And only 93.1% of kindergarten students had received both doses of their measles, mumps and rubella shots, substantially lower than the 96.2% statewide average. California typically publishes vaccination rates for kindergarten, first-grade and seventh-grade students.
Public health experts say a 95% vaccination rate, sometimes called “herd immunity,” is considered the gold standard of disease prevention. A slip of even 1 or 2 percentage points can create an opportunity for disease to spread, meaning that even if the overwhelming majority of children are vaccinated, it could still take only a few cases to spark an outbreak in an area where immunization rates have fallen below 95%.
California reported a decline last year in the share of kindergarten students who were immunized against measles, despite strict laws that make it difficult for parents to skip shots for their children. That includes 16 counties where measles immunization had fallen below the herd immunity threshold.
An increase in vaccine hesitancy in recent years, coupled with widespread disinformation online and increasing political division, could make it even harder to encourage immunization, said former state Sen. Richard Pan, a Sacramento Democrat who wrote California’s vaccine laws.
“We seem to be heading the wrong direction,” Pan said. “We’ve been feeling pretty comfortable, like ‘we’re OK.’ But we suddenly now prove to people, it’s not OK.”
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