Science
Can Omicron overtake the Delta variant? Here’s what it will take
With a handful of circumstances now confirmed throughout the nation, it’s clear that the Omicron variant has established a toehold in the US.
However whether or not these preliminary infections fade out or develop into the beachhead for a brand new viral assault relies upon largely on how Omicron stacks up towards a now-familiar foe: the Delta variant.
Because it burst onto the scene final week, scientists have been working to determine whether or not its quite a few mutations assist it unfold extra simply than its predecessors, make its victims sicker, or scale back the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines and medicines.
But there’s one other query that’s simply as vital for forecasting Omicron’s impact on the pandemic: What if it’s no match for the satan we all know?
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“Can Delta outcompete Omicron, or will Omicron thrive within the face of Delta?” mentioned John Moore, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medical Faculty. “That’s only a full unknown for the time being.”
The Delta variant has lengthy been the dominant pressure within the U.S. — and it was the offender behind a renewed wave of circumstances, hospitalizations and deaths that swept the nation over the summer season.
“Dominant” undersells simply how widespread Delta is. In the US, it’s almost omnipresent.
“I do know that the information is targeted on Omicron, however we should always do not forget that 99.9% of circumstances within the nation proper now are from the Delta variant,” mentioned Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention. “Delta continues to drive circumstances throughout the nation, particularly in those that are unvaccinated.”
The explanation for the pressure’s supremacy is easy: It’s twice as transmissible as the unique SARS-CoV-2 virus. Consequently, it’s been capable of elbow apart different variants that in any other case might need unfold extra broadly.
Look no additional than the Beta variant, which scientists thought-about a possible risk as a result of it seemed prefer it would possibly imperil the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines.
“By no means occurred,” Moore mentioned. “Beta was squelched out by Delta. Nicely, that might occur to Omicron.”
In Africa, Omicron has been linked to a steep rise in new infections, suggesting it’s certainly extremely transmissible. However it might have confronted much less daunting competitors in Africa than it should in the US.
The Alpha and Beta variants proceed to flow into broadly in Africa, accounting for nearly half of recent infections examined there. It’s doable that Omicron can outcompete them however will likely be stymied by Delta.
That’s not completely excellent news. Delta has proved greater than able to chopping a devastating swath by the U.S.
Even with out factoring in Omicron, “we already are going through a Delta-driven winter surge that’s going to kill one other 100,000 to 150,000 People,” Moore mentioned.
Omicron’s rise in South Africa got here at a time when new infections have been comparatively low, a context that might result in overestimates of its transmissibility. As scientists stepped up their assortment of viral samples round an outbreak, they might have captured a excessive price of unfold that was distinctive to that cluster however received’t reoccur in a broad inhabitants.
There have been early indicators that Omicron is extra able to reinfecting individuals who have recovered from earlier coronavirus infections.
“Not a large impact. However it’s statistically vital,” Moore mentioned, based mostly on preliminary analyses he’s reviewed. “And that might be according to the extremely mutated nature of Omicron.”
A brand new risk evaluation from the UK’s Well being Safety Company says that fashions developed by scientists at Oxford College counsel Omicron might replicate extra rapidly within the physique by binding extra tightly to the ACE2 receptor on human cells. That binding affinity seems to occur “to a a lot higher extent than that seen for another variant,” the report states.
Scientists have lengthy argued that in a virus’ never-ending quest to contaminate new hosts, genetic mutations that improve transmissibility will finest guarantee its survival. New variants give the coronavirus recent alternatives to unfold and safe its future, mentioned Wesleyan College microbiologist Frederick Cohan.
There are lots of methods to try this, and the virus must hit on the proper change to enhance its prospects, Cohan mentioned. It might make itself extra transmissible by hovering longer in or touring extra readily by the air. It might maintain contaminated individuals contagious for longer. It might trigger milder sickness, retaining spreaders in vast circulation.
Widespread vaccination slows transmission by making the virus work more durable to search out its subsequent sufferer. But when Omicron — or another variant — finds a solution to overcome the safety provided by vaccines, the reward will likely be an even bigger pool of potential hosts.
In a way, a vaccine-resistant variant would regain the target-rich setting the unique pressure loved firstly of the pandemic, mentioned Dr. Jonathan Schiffer, an infectious-diseases knowledgeable on the Fred Hutchinson Most cancers Analysis Middle in Seattle.
“The virus which may win now isn’t essentially the identical variant that received up to now,” Schiffer mentioned.
Nonetheless unknown is whether or not individuals sickened by Omicron are roughly prone to develop into severely ailing than individuals sickened by Delta.
The chair of the South African Medical Assn. mentioned in a newspaper op-ed this week that “nobody right here in South Africa is thought to have been hospitalized with the Omicron variant.”
That’s heartening, however officers say it’s nonetheless too early to know whether or not Omicron will make individuals extra sick than Delta does. It’s doable that Omicron has treaded extra frivolously on its victims in South Africa as a result of it has contaminated youthful, in any other case wholesome individuals who aren’t notably prone to develop into severely ailing with COVID-19. If the brand new variant encounters a extra weak inhabitants, the image might change, Moore mentioned.
“Normally, it takes time for a extreme sickness to essentially require hospitalization,” mentioned Dr. Regina Chinsio-Kwong, an Orange County deputy well being officer. “So we’ll discover out, most likely in one other two weeks, how extreme Omicron may be on the system.”
Science
Cluster of farmworkers diagnosed with rare animal-borne disease in Ventura County
A cluster of workers at Ventura County berry farms have been diagnosed with a rare disease often transmitted through sick animals’ urine, according to a public health advisory distributed to local doctors by county health officials Tuesday.
The bacterial infection, leptospirosis, has resulted in severe symptoms for some workers, including meningitis, an inflammation of the brain lining and spinal cord. Symptoms for mild cases included headaches and fevers.
The disease, which can be fatal, rarely spreads from human to human, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Ventura County Public Health has not given an official case count but said it had not identified any cases outside of the agriculture sector. The county’s agriculture commissioner was aware of 18 cases, the Ventura County Star reported.
The health department said it was first contacted by a local physician in October, who reported an unusual trend in symptoms among hospital patients.
After launching an investigation, the department identified leptospirosis as a probable cause of the illness and found most patients worked on caneberry farms that utilize hoop houses — greenhouse structures to shelter the crops.
As the investigation to identify any additional cases and the exact sources of exposure continues, Ventura County Public Health has asked healthcare providers to consider a leptospirosis diagnosis for sick agricultural workers, particularly berry harvesters.
Rodents are a common source and transmitter of disease, though other mammals — including livestock, cats and dogs — can transmit it as well.
The disease is spread through bodily fluids, such as urine, and is often contracted through cuts and abrasions that contact contaminated water and soil, where the bacteria can survive for months.
Humans can also contract the illness through contaminated food; however, the county health agency has found no known health risks to the general public, including through the contact or consumption of caneberries such as raspberries and blackberries.
Symptom onset typically occurs between two and 30 days after exposure, and symptoms can last for months if untreated, according to the CDC.
The illness often begins with mild symptoms, with fevers, chills, vomiting and headaches. Some cases can then enter a second, more severe phase that can result in kidney or liver failure.
Ventura County Public Health recommends agriculture and berry harvesters regularly rinse any cuts with soap and water and cover them with bandages. They also recommend wearing waterproof clothing and protection while working outdoors, including gloves and long-sleeve shirts and pants.
While there is no evidence of spread to the larger community, according to the department, residents should wash hands frequently and work to control rodents around their property if possible.
Pet owners can consult a veterinarian about leptospirosis vaccinations and should keep pets away from ponds, lakes and other natural bodies of water.
Science
Political stress: Can you stay engaged without sacrificing your mental health?
It’s been two weeks since Donald Trump won the presidential election, but Stacey Lamirand’s brain hasn’t stopped churning.
“I still think about the election all the time,” said the 60-year-old Bay Area resident, who wanted a Kamala Harris victory so badly that she flew to Pennsylvania and knocked on voters’ doors in the final days of the campaign. “I honestly don’t know what to do about that.”
Neither do the psychologists and political scientists who have been tracking the country’s slide toward toxic levels of partisanship.
Fully 69% of U.S. adults found the presidential election a significant source of stress in their lives, the American Psychological Assn. said in its latest Stress in America report.
The distress was present across the political spectrum, with 80% of Republicans, 79% of Democrats and 73% of independents surveyed saying they were stressed about the country’s future.
That’s unhealthy for the body politic — and for voters themselves. Stress can cause muscle tension, headaches, sleep problems and loss of appetite. Chronic stress can inflict more serious damage to the immune system and make people more vulnerable to heart attacks, strokes, diabetes, infertility, clinical anxiety, depression and other ailments.
In most circumstances, the sound medical advice is to disengage from the source of stress, therapists said. But when stress is coming from politics, that prescription pits the health of the individual against the health of the nation.
“I’m worried about people totally withdrawing from politics because it’s unpleasant,” said Aaron Weinschenk, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin–Green Bay who studies political behavior and elections. “We don’t want them to do that. But we also don’t want them to feel sick.”
Modern life is full of stressors of all kinds: paying bills, pleasing difficult bosses, getting along with frenemies, caring for children or aging parents (or both).
The stress that stems from politics isn’t fundamentally different from other kinds of stress. What’s unique about it is the way it encompasses and enhances other sources of stress, said Brett Ford, a social psychologist at the University of Toronto who studies the link between emotions and political engagement.
For instance, she said, elections have the potential to make everyday stressors like money and health concerns more difficult to manage as candidates debate policies that could raise the price of gas or cut off access to certain kinds of medical care.
Layered on top of that is the fact that political disagreements have morphed into moral conflicts that are perceived as pitting good against evil.
“When someone comes into power who is not on the same page as you morally, that can hit very deeply,” Ford said.
Partisanship and polarization have raised the stakes as well. Voters who feel a strong connection to a political party become more invested in its success. That can make a loss at the ballot box feel like a personal defeat, she said.
There’s also the fact that we have limited control over the outcome of an election. A patient with heart disease can improve their prognosis by taking medicine, changing their diet, getting more exercise or quitting smoking. But a person with political stress is largely at the mercy of others.
“Politics is many forms of stress all rolled into one,” Ford said.
Weinschenk observed this firsthand the day after the election.
“I could feel it when I went into my classroom,” said the professor, whose research has found that people with political anxiety aren’t necessarily anxious in general. “I have a student who’s transgender and a couple of students who are gay. Their emotional state was so closed down.”
That’s almost to be expected in a place like Wisconsin, whose swing-state status caused residents to be bombarded with political messages. The more campaign ads a person is exposed to, the greater the risk of being diagnosed with anxiety, depression or another psychological ailment, according to a 2022 study in the journal PLOS One.
Political messages seem designed to keep voters “emotionally on edge,” said Vaile Wright, a licensed psychologist in Villa Park, Ill., and a member of the APA’s Stress in America team.
“It encourages emotion to drive our decision-making behavior, as opposed to logic,” Wright said. “When we’re really emotionally stimulated, it makes it so much more challenging to have civil conversation. For politicians, I think that’s powerful, because emotions can be very easily manipulated.”
Making voters feel anxious is a tried-and-true way to grab their attention, said Christopher Ojeda, a political scientist at UC Merced who studies mental health and politics.
“Feelings of anxiety can be mobilizing, definitely,” he said. “That’s why politicians make fear appeals — they want people to get engaged.”
On the other hand, “feelings of depression are demobilizing and take you out of the political system,” said Ojeda, author of “The Sad Citizen: How Politics is Depressing and Why it Matters.”
“What [these feelings] can tell you is, ‘Things aren’t going the way I want them to. Maybe I need to step back,’” he said.
Genessa Krasnow has been seeing a lot of that since the election.
The Seattle entrepreneur, who also campaigned for Harris, said it grates on her to see people laughing in restaurants “as if nothing had happened.” At a recent book club meeting, her fellow group members were willing to let her vent about politics for five minutes, but they weren’t interested in discussing ways they could counteract the incoming president.
“They’re in a state of disengagement,” said Krasnow, who is 56. She, meanwhile, is looking for new ways to reach young voters.
“I am exhausted. I am so sad,” she said. “But I don’t believe that disengaging is the answer.”
That’s the fundamental trade-off, Ojeda said, and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution.
“Everyone has to make a decision about how much engagement they can tolerate without undermining their psychological well-being,” he said.
Lamirand took steps to protect her mental health by cutting social media ties with people whose values aren’t aligned with hers. But she will remain politically active and expects to volunteer for phone-banking duty soon.
“Doing something is the only thing that allows me to feel better,” Lamirand said. “It allows me to feel some level of control.”
Ideally, Ford said, people would not have to choose between being politically active and preserving their mental health. She is investigating ways to help people feel hopeful, inspired and compassionate about political challenges, since these emotions can motivate action without triggering stress and anxiety.
“We want to counteract this pattern where the more involved you are, the worse you are,” Ford said.
The benefits would be felt across the political spectrum. In the APA survey, similar shares of Democrats, Republicans and independents agreed with statements like, “It causes me stress that politicians aren’t talking about the things that are most important to me,” and, “The political climate has caused strain between my family members and me.”
“Both sides are very invested in this country, and that is a good thing,” Wright said. “Antipathy and hopelessness really doesn’t serve us in the long run.”
Science
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