Science
Can Omicron overtake the Delta variant? Here’s what it will take

With a handful of circumstances now confirmed throughout the nation, it’s clear that the Omicron variant has established a toehold in the US.
However whether or not these preliminary infections fade out or develop into the beachhead for a brand new viral assault relies upon largely on how Omicron stacks up towards a now-familiar foe: the Delta variant.
Because it burst onto the scene final week, scientists have been working to determine whether or not its quite a few mutations assist it unfold extra simply than its predecessors, make its victims sicker, or scale back the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines and medicines.
But there’s one other query that’s simply as vital for forecasting Omicron’s impact on the pandemic: What if it’s no match for the satan we all know?
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“Can Delta outcompete Omicron, or will Omicron thrive within the face of Delta?” mentioned John Moore, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medical Faculty. “That’s only a full unknown for the time being.”
The Delta variant has lengthy been the dominant pressure within the U.S. — and it was the offender behind a renewed wave of circumstances, hospitalizations and deaths that swept the nation over the summer season.
“Dominant” undersells simply how widespread Delta is. In the US, it’s almost omnipresent.
“I do know that the information is targeted on Omicron, however we should always do not forget that 99.9% of circumstances within the nation proper now are from the Delta variant,” mentioned Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention. “Delta continues to drive circumstances throughout the nation, particularly in those that are unvaccinated.”
The explanation for the pressure’s supremacy is easy: It’s twice as transmissible as the unique SARS-CoV-2 virus. Consequently, it’s been capable of elbow apart different variants that in any other case might need unfold extra broadly.
Look no additional than the Beta variant, which scientists thought-about a possible risk as a result of it seemed prefer it would possibly imperil the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines.
“By no means occurred,” Moore mentioned. “Beta was squelched out by Delta. Nicely, that might occur to Omicron.”
In Africa, Omicron has been linked to a steep rise in new infections, suggesting it’s certainly extremely transmissible. However it might have confronted much less daunting competitors in Africa than it should in the US.
The Alpha and Beta variants proceed to flow into broadly in Africa, accounting for nearly half of recent infections examined there. It’s doable that Omicron can outcompete them however will likely be stymied by Delta.
That’s not completely excellent news. Delta has proved greater than able to chopping a devastating swath by the U.S.
Even with out factoring in Omicron, “we already are going through a Delta-driven winter surge that’s going to kill one other 100,000 to 150,000 People,” Moore mentioned.
Omicron’s rise in South Africa got here at a time when new infections have been comparatively low, a context that might result in overestimates of its transmissibility. As scientists stepped up their assortment of viral samples round an outbreak, they might have captured a excessive price of unfold that was distinctive to that cluster however received’t reoccur in a broad inhabitants.
There have been early indicators that Omicron is extra able to reinfecting individuals who have recovered from earlier coronavirus infections.
“Not a large impact. However it’s statistically vital,” Moore mentioned, based mostly on preliminary analyses he’s reviewed. “And that might be according to the extremely mutated nature of Omicron.”
A brand new risk evaluation from the UK’s Well being Safety Company says that fashions developed by scientists at Oxford College counsel Omicron might replicate extra rapidly within the physique by binding extra tightly to the ACE2 receptor on human cells. That binding affinity seems to occur “to a a lot higher extent than that seen for another variant,” the report states.
Scientists have lengthy argued that in a virus’ never-ending quest to contaminate new hosts, genetic mutations that improve transmissibility will finest guarantee its survival. New variants give the coronavirus recent alternatives to unfold and safe its future, mentioned Wesleyan College microbiologist Frederick Cohan.
There are lots of methods to try this, and the virus must hit on the proper change to enhance its prospects, Cohan mentioned. It might make itself extra transmissible by hovering longer in or touring extra readily by the air. It might maintain contaminated individuals contagious for longer. It might trigger milder sickness, retaining spreaders in vast circulation.
Widespread vaccination slows transmission by making the virus work more durable to search out its subsequent sufferer. But when Omicron — or another variant — finds a solution to overcome the safety provided by vaccines, the reward will likely be an even bigger pool of potential hosts.
In a way, a vaccine-resistant variant would regain the target-rich setting the unique pressure loved firstly of the pandemic, mentioned Dr. Jonathan Schiffer, an infectious-diseases knowledgeable on the Fred Hutchinson Most cancers Analysis Middle in Seattle.
“The virus which may win now isn’t essentially the identical variant that received up to now,” Schiffer mentioned.
Nonetheless unknown is whether or not individuals sickened by Omicron are roughly prone to develop into severely ailing than individuals sickened by Delta.
The chair of the South African Medical Assn. mentioned in a newspaper op-ed this week that “nobody right here in South Africa is thought to have been hospitalized with the Omicron variant.”
That’s heartening, however officers say it’s nonetheless too early to know whether or not Omicron will make individuals extra sick than Delta does. It’s doable that Omicron has treaded extra frivolously on its victims in South Africa as a result of it has contaminated youthful, in any other case wholesome individuals who aren’t notably prone to develop into severely ailing with COVID-19. If the brand new variant encounters a extra weak inhabitants, the image might change, Moore mentioned.
“Normally, it takes time for a extreme sickness to essentially require hospitalization,” mentioned Dr. Regina Chinsio-Kwong, an Orange County deputy well being officer. “So we’ll discover out, most likely in one other two weeks, how extreme Omicron may be on the system.”

Science
How Bees, Beer Cans and Data Solve the Same Packing Problem

Animation of the same plastic spheres disappearing one at a time.
A holy grail in pure mathematics is sphere packing in higher dimensions. Almost nothing has been rigorously proven about it, except in dimensions 1, 2 and 3.
That’s why it was such a breakthrough when, in 2016, a young Ukrainian mathematician named Maryna Viazovska solved the sphere-packing problem in eight dimensions, and later, with collaborators, in 24 dimensions.
Science
Union presses California’s key bird flu testing lab for records

The union representing workers at a UC Davis lab that tests and tracks bird flu infections in livestock has sued the university, demanding that records showing staffing levels and other information about the lab’s operations be released to the public.
Workers in the lab’s small biotechnology department had raised concerns late last year about short staffing and potentially bungled testing procedures as cases of avian flu spread through millions of birds in turkey farms and chicken and egg-laying facilities, as well as through the state’s cattle herds.
The University Professional and Technical Employees-CWA Local 9119 said that it requested records in December 2024 in an attempt to understand whether the lab was able to properly service the state’s agribusiness.
But UC Davis has refused to release records, in violation of California’s public records laws, the union alleged in a lawsuit recently filed in Alameda County Superior Court.
UC Davis spokesperson Bill Kisliuk declined to comment on the lawsuit’s specific allegations.
“The university looks forward to filing our response in court. We are grateful for the outstanding work of the CAHFS lab staff, including UPTE-represented workers, during the 2024 surge in avian flu testing,” Kisliuk said in an email.
UC Davis has previously denied that workplace issues have left the lab ill-equipped to handle bird flu testing. Kisliuk had said the facility “maintained the supervision, staffing and resources necessary to provide timely and vital health and safety information to those asking us to perform tests.”
According to copies of email correspondence cited in the lawsuit, UC Davis in January denied the union’s request for records regarding short staffing or testing errors, calling the request “unduly burdensome.” It also denied its request for information about farms and other businesses that had samples tested at the lab, citing an exemption to protect from an “invasion of personal privacy.”
Workers at the lab had previously told The Times that they observed lapses in quality assurance procedures, as well as other mistakes in the testing process.
Amy Fletcher, a UC Davis employee and president of the union’s Davis chapter, said the records would provide a necessary window into how staffing levels could be hurting farms and other businesses that rely on the lab for testing. Fletcher said workers have become afraid to speak about problems at the lab, having been warned by management that the some information related to testing is confidential.
The Davis lab is the only entity in the state with the authority to confirm bird flu cases.
The union, known as UPTE, represents about 20,000 researchers and other technical workers across the University of California system’s 10 campuses.
Science
Newsom's podcast sidekick: a single-use plastic water bottle

Johnny had Ed. Conan had Andy. And Gov. Gavin Newsom? A single-use plastic water bottle.
In most of the YouTube video recordings of Newsom’s new podcast, “This is Gavin Newsom,” a single-use plastic water bottle lurks on a table nearby.
Sometimes, it is accompanied by a single-use coffee cup. Other times, it stands alone.
Typically, such product placement would raise nary an eyebrow. But in recent weeks, environmentalists, waste advocates, lawmakers and others have been battling with the governor and his administration over a landmark single-use plastic law that Newsom signed in 2022, but which he has since worked to defang — reducing the number of packaged single-use products the law was designed to target and potentially opening the door for polluting forms of recycling.
Anti-plastic advocates say it’s an abrupt and disappointing pivot from the governor, who in June 2022, decried plastic pollution and the plague of single-use plastic on the environment.
“It’s like that whole French Laundry thing all over again,” said one anti-plastic advocate, who didn’t want to be identified for fear of angering the governor. Newsom was infamously caught dining without a mask at the wine country restaurant during the COVID-19 lockdown.
Newsom’s efforts to scale back SB 54, the state’s single-use plastic recycling law, has dismayed environmentalists who have long considered Newsom one of their staunchest allies.
“Our kids deserve a future free of plastic waste and all its dangerous impacts … No more,” Newsom said in 2022, when he signed SB 54. “California won’t tolerate plastic waste that’s filling our waterways and making it harder to breathe. We’re holding polluters responsible and cutting plastics at the source.”
Asked about the presence of the plastic water bottle, Daniel Villaseñor, the governor’s deputy director of communications, had this response:
“Are you really writing a story this baseless or should we highlight this video for your editor?” Villaseñor said via email, attaching a video clip showing this reporter seated near a plastic water bottle at last year’s Los Angeles Times’ Climate Summit. (The bottles were placed near chairs for all the panelists; this particular one was never touched.)
After this story was first published, the governor’s office said the plastic water bottles seen on the podcast were placed there by staff or production teams and not at Newsom’s request, and that the governor remains committed to seeing SB 54 implemented.
More than a half-dozen environmentalists and waste advocates asked to comment for this story declined to speak on the record, citing concerns including possible retribution from the governor’s office and appearing to look like scolds as negotiations over implementing SB 54 continue.
Dianna Cohen, the co-founder and chief executive of Plastic Pollution Coalition, said that while she wouldn’t comment on the governor and his plastic sidekick, she noted that plastic pollution is an “urgent global crisis” that requires strong policies and regulations.
“Individuals — especially those in the public eye — can help shift culture by modeling these solutions. We must all work to embrace the values we want to see and co-create a healthier world,” she said in a statement.
On Thursday, Newsom dropped a new episode of “This is Gavin Newsom” with independent journalist Aaron Parnas. In the video, there wasn’t a plastic bottle in sight.
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