Politics
Hold the 'blue wall,' or light up the Sun Belt? Harris eyes path through U.S. battlegrounds
Vice President Kamala Harris’ late entry into the presidential race against former President Trump reset the political playing field in important ways, giving Democrats a promising boost in polling and a huge infusion of cash and volunteers. But it didn’t change everything.
In a nation of more than 330 million people, the 2024 election — just like the 2016 and 2020 elections before it — will almost certainly be decided by a relatively small number of voters in a handful of battleground states, political experts said.
When Hillary Clinton lost to Trump in 2016, it was by fewer than 80,000 votes across Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania combined. When President Biden beat Trump in 2020, it was by fewer than 50,000 votes across Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia.
Now, Harris is in a high-speed race to start executing her own path to victory through the nation’s battlegrounds, which include Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — three of the “blue wall” of states that lean Democratic — and Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, in the nation’s Sun Belt. This week, she is expected to pick her running mate — possibly from one of those states — and begin holding major rallies in places such as Philadelphia, Detroit, Raleigh, N.C., and Savannah, Ga.
Amid the high-stakes number-crunching that campaigns always do to determine their best path to victory, the Harris campaign is citing polls showing her closing the gap with Trump in nearly every battleground, and seeming more bullish than Biden’s campaign ever did. On the question of whether Harris might focus on the blue wall or the Sun Belt, her campaign’s answer has been both.
In a call with reporters last week, the campaign’s battleground states director, Dan Kanninen, said the flood of support for Harris across the country included 360,000 new volunteers and $200 million in donations during the first week of her candidacy — two-thirds of which was from new donors.
On Friday, the Harris campaign said that it had $377 million in cash on hand — compared with $327 million for Trump — and that it would be spending hard and fast to ramp up the fight.
Kanninen said the campaign is rapidly expanding an already large network of Biden-Harris field offices and volunteers across the battleground states. He said that there were 600 staffers “on the ground in the blue wall,” and that 150 more would be added by mid-August. Aides also planned to double the size of the campaign’s teams in Arizona and North Carolina, and were opening new field offices in Georgia.
Volunteers were fanning out to knock on doors, and being trained on how best to spur pro-Harris conversations online.
“We’re making these investments across the entire map because the data is clear: We have multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes,” Kanninen said. “The vice president is strong in both the blue wall and in the Sun Belt, and we are running hard in both.”
The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment on its strategy for battleground states.
In the American electoral system, voters cast ballots to elect the president, but the candidate who receives the most votes nationally is not necessarily the winner. Clinton, for example, received about 2.9 million more votes than Trump, and still lost.
That’s because the candidate who wins the most individual votes in a state receives all of that state’s electoral votes, in what’s known as the electoral college. The number of electoral votes per state is determined by population, with the most populous states — such as California — receiving the most.
In order to win an election today, a presidential candidate must secure 270 electoral votes, and different presidents have gotten there through different pathways. Barack Obama famously pulled together a broad coalition of voters, flipping nine previously red states to blue in 2008.
Clinton was confident going into the 2016 election, riding polls that appeared strongly in her favor, only to have her campaign’s swing-state strategy — she never campaigned in Wisconsin — ridiculed by some political analysts after her stunning defeat. In 2020, Biden managed to undo some of the damage to the Democratic Party, taking back several key battleground states while flipping Arizona and Georgia — but by closer margins and via a narrower path to victory than Obama‘s in 2008 and 2012.
Political experts, pollsters and other veterans of presidential races said that given Harris’ resources, it makes sense for the campaign to cast a wide net and fight in as many swing states as possible. But they have different takes on how she might get to 270 — or fall short.
Robert Alexander, a professor of political science at Bowling Green State University in Ohio and author of “Representation and the Electoral College,” has long studied presidential paths to victory on the electoral map.
“Harris’ entry has changed the complexion of states up for grabs, I would say, from where Biden was — and it’s made it more amenable for Democrats. Certain states seemed to be slipping away [under Biden], and some of the early polling would say that they are now back in grasp for a Harris-led ticket,” Alexander said. “That’s a pretty significant shift in a pretty quick time period.”
He said that Pennsylvania — with 19 electoral votes, which Clinton lost and Biden won — is a “pretty key state in all of this right now,” and that there will no doubt be “money dumped” into campaigning there.
But he also expects Harris, buoyed by new energy and enthusiasm, to invest in driving up turnout in the South, in part to force Trump — who had been preparing to “run up the scoreboard” on Biden — back into a defensive posture.
Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said both Harris and Trump appear focused, correctly, on the seven states that were decided by 3 percentage points or less in the last election: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in the blue wall; Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona in the Sun Belt; and Nevada.
In 2020, Biden won six out of the seven, while Trump took North Carolina — and all of them are up for grabs in 2024, Kondik said.
Before Biden dropped out, Kondik had been watching the president’s numbers falling fast in the blue wall swing states, and considered the decline a deadly sign for the Biden campaign. “If he lost in any of them, he wasn’t going to win,” Kondik said.
He said the same probably holds true for Harris, but that may change if her numbers keep going up in North Carolina and Georgia.
“The jury’s out on that,” he said.
Cornell Belcher, a pollster who worked for both Obama campaigns, said Harris may not be able to restore Obama’s broad coalition. But it “makes all the sense in the world” for her to follow Obama’s strategy of “pressing for expansion” on the electoral map, he said — “going more places and making Republicans play defense more.”
Harris has to “secure the blue wall, hard stop,” Belcher said, and will definitely be paying attention to — and spending time in — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
But given her brimming campaign coffers, he said, she also has the “opportunity to go on the offensive” in other vulnerable places.
North Carolina, which Obama had flipped blue, more recently elected a Democratic governor in Roy Cooper, and may see diminished Republican turnout given GOP primary voters’ selection of far-right candidates in down-ballot races, Belcher said.
“It’s absolutely an opportunity if you have the resources,” he said of the Harris campaign. “And again, they have the resources.”
Georgia, he said, is also in play, with a “well-educated, upwardly mobile population and a growing segment of minority voters” who flipped both of the state’s U.S. Senate seats blue in the last election.
“For Democrats to not tap in to these changing dynamics within these states,” Belcher said, “would be malpractice.”
Harris doesn’t have a lot of time, but Belcher and others said it’s unclear how relevant that is. This race has been moving at lightning speed, the trajectory of polling in several states turned on a dime in the last couple of weeks, and Harris’ favorability ratings shot up in record time after Biden endorsed her.
“We’re in uncharted waters,” Belcher said. “There are no road maps for all of this.”
Alexander, of Bowling Green, said he still believes that Harris has a “tougher path” to winning than Trump due to the nature of the electoral college system — and he worries 2024 could be another “misfire election,” with Trump winning the electoral college despite Harris winning the popular vote.
“In a different time,” Alexander said, “it would be seen as a constitutional crisis.”
Politics
Trump Discusses Tax Cuts for New Yorkers With G.O.P. Lawmakers
President-elect Donald J. Trump reiterated his support for undoing a major provision of his 2017 tax law on Saturday when he told more than a dozen House Republicans at his Florida estate to come up with a plan for increasing the state and local tax deduction, according to four lawmakers who attended.
Republicans put a $10,000 cap on the deduction, often called SALT, during Mr. Trump’s first term to help cover the cost of the broader 2017 tax law they passed along party lines. The change upset lawmakers from both parties in high-tax states like New York and New Jersey, who have since made it a central political promise to restore a valuable deduction for residents in their states.
The yearslong quest to restore the deduction — or at least increase its limit — got a boost during the presidential campaign when Mr. Trump said he would “get SALT back.” But the House Republicans demanding an increase to the limit have not yet agreed among themselves on the details.
Some have called for raising the limit for the deduction as high as $200,000. Others have more modest ambitions, including a smaller increase in the deduction’s limit that would be paired with gradual hikes over time that match the pace of inflation. Right now, the $10,000 cap applies to both individuals and married couples, and the group seems in agreement that couples should take a larger deduction than individuals.
At the meeting on Saturday, House Republicans from New York, New Jersey and California offered a variety of ideas to Mr. Trump about how to address the issue, according to the attendees. Among the concepts discussed was the possibility of persuading local leaders to hold off on tax increases in return for a higher deduction for their residents.
“Maybe we increase the deduction, but maybe the deduction goes even higher if your state freezes or lowers the tax rate,” said Representative Nicole Malliotakis, a New York Republican and member of the Ways and Means Committee who attended the meeting. “These are all ideas we are entertaining.”
Mr. Trump largely listened to the House Republicans, who were served coconut shrimp and Trump-branded bottled water during the hourlong meeting, and asked the group to reach a consensus, the attendees said. Any proposed change would also need nearly unanimous support from other congressional Republicans, many of whom are skeptical of providing tax relief to largely high-income residents of states governed by Democrats.
Lifting the cap on the deduction is expensive, and Republicans are already grappling with the vast cost of the tax bill they plan to pass this year. Lawmakers have explored the possibility of limiting the ability of businesses to deduct state and local taxes from their federal bills to try to cover the cost of any changes.
“It can’t be unlimited, and we still need a cap,” said Representative Jeff Van Drew, a New Jersey Republican who attended the meeting. “We have to find that sweet spot.”
Politics
Trump tasks blue state Republicans with 'homework' as GOP plots massive conservative policy overhaul
President-elect Donald Trump is giving Republicans his blessing to negotiate on a key tax that could prove critical to the GOP’s negotiations for a massive conservative policy overhaul next year.
Trump met with several different groups of House Republicans at Mar-a-Lago over the weekend, including blue state GOP lawmakers who make up the House SALT Caucus – a group opposed to the current $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions that primarily affect urban and suburban residents in areas with high income and property taxes, such as New York, New Jersey, and California.
“I think it was productive and successful,” Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, R-N.Y., said of the meeting. “The president supports our efforts to increase the SALT deduction. He understands that mayors and governors in blue states are crushing taxpayers and wants to provide relief from the federal level.”
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But Trump also signaled he was aware of the opposition from others in the House GOP conference, particularly rural district Republicans, who have viewed SALT deductions as tax breaks for the wealthy. Before the cap was imposed in 2017, there was no limit to how much state income and local property taxes people could deduct from their income when filing their federal returns.
“He gave us a little homework to work on, a number that could provide our middle class constituents with relief from the high taxes imposed by our governor and mayor, and at the same time, you know, something that can build consensus and get to [a 218-vote majority],” Malliotakis said.
“I think we pretty much know that it’s not going to be a complete lifting of the SALT cap. There’s not an appetite within Congress or even among American taxpayers to lower taxes for the ultra-wealthy.
“Our efforts are really targeted to middle-class families, and that’s what we’re focused on in trying to achieve the right balance.”
The current SALT deduction cap has been opposed by New York and California lawmakers for much of its existence, since being levied in Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
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Trump suggested he would change course during his second administration as early as September last year, when he posted on Truth Social that he would “get SALT back, lower your taxes, and so much more.”
The discussions are part of Republicans’ wider talks about passing a massive fiscal and conservative policy overhaul via a process known as “reconciliation.”
By lowering the Senate’s threshold for passage to a simple majority instead of two-thirds, the process allows the party in control of both houses of Congress and the White House to pass certain legislation provided it deals with budgetary and other fiscal matters.
Some pro-SALT deduction Republicans, like Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., had signaled they could withhold support from the final bill if the cap was not increased.
“The only red line I have is that if there is a tax bill that does not lift the cap on SALT, I would not support that,” Lawler told Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures.
Lawler also said Trump agreed that SALT deduction caps needed to be raised.
House Republicans have virtually no room for error with a razor-thin majority from Trump’s inauguration until likely sometime in April.
Meanwhile, Trump also told New York Republicans that he would help them fight their state’s controversial congestion pricing rule that levies an added cost to drive in parts of Manhattan.
“He understands how unfair this is and how it would impact the city’s economy and the people we represent and so we’re currently working with him on legal options to reverse the rubber stamp of the Biden administration,” Malliotakis said. “If there’s a legal option, if there’s a legal option for him to halt congestion pricing, he will.”
“You have, you know, cops, police, firefighters, nurses, the restaurant workers that have to go in at odd hours, and they drive because they don’t feel that the transit system is clean or safe.”
Congestion pricing took effect in New York City earlier this month.
Fox News Digital reached out to the Trump transition team for comment on this weekend’s meeting.
Politics
Newsom suspends landmark environmental laws to ease rebuilding in wildfire zones
Landmark California environmental laws will be suspended for wildfire victims seeking to rebuild their homes and businesses, according to an executive order signed Sunday by Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Requirements for building permits and reviews in the California Environmental Quality Act and the California Coastal Act — often considered onerous by developers — will be eased for victims of the fires in Pacific Palisades, Altadena and other communities, according to the order.
“California leads the nation in environmental stewardship. I’m not going to give that up,” Newsom told Jacob Soboroff on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “But one thing I won’t give into is delay. Delay is denial for people: lives, traditions, places torn apart, torn asunder.”
Dan Dunmoyer, president and chief executive of the California Building Industry Assn., said the governor’s action represents an early and strong statement about the future of these areas. Newsom is making clear, Dunmoyer said, that the state will encourage homeowners to go back to their neighborhoods rather than deem development there too risky.
“He’s put a marker down to say we’re going to rebuild these communities,” Dunmoyer said.
Waivers of the environmental quality act, known as CEQA, and the Coastal Act could shave years off the process for homeowners in the Palisades, he said, but building permits issued by local governments represent another major hurdle.
“Those two banner ones are important,” Dunmoyer said, referring to the state laws, “but if the locals don’t come up with an expedited process, that’s where it could get stuck.”
Newsom’s order calls for the state housing department to work with affected cities and the county to develop new permitting rules that would allow for all approvals to be issued within 30 days.
In the wake of the fires, housing analysts have renewed calls for the city of Los Angeles to speed up its processes. A 2023 study found that the average unit in a multifamily property in the city took five years to complete, with a substantial portion of that time related to bureaucratic approval.
Mayor Karen Bass has acknowledged the problems and pledged that the city will accelerate permitting.
“We are going to clear the red tape and unnecessary delays and costs and headaches that people experience in ordinary times so that we can rebuild your homes quickly,” Bass said at a news conference Thursday.
Bass reiterated the promise at a news conference Sunday morning, applauding the governor’s action, and said she plans to release details on the effort this week. L.A. County Board of Supervisors Chair Kathryn Barger, who represents Altadena, similarly lauded the governor’s executive order.
“I want to thank the governor for hearing my request and taking swift action to ensure that our residents will not be burdened by unnecessary requirements as they begin the process of recovery and rebuilding,” said Barger, a Republican.
However, many GOP members across the state said Newsom’s order was too little, too late.
“Wildfire victims deserve much more from Gavin Newsom. When his track record includes lying about and underfunding wildfire prevention efforts, he owes Angelenos answers on how he and local Democrat leaders could have been so unprepared for these devastating wildfires,” said California Republican Party Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson. “No more blame game and excuses. We need accountability from this governor, and we need it now.”
Environmentalists also noted that the governor’s executive order restates an existing provision in the Coastal Act that provides exemptions for fire rebuilds.
The California Coastal Commission, which is tasked with coordinating with local officials in enforcing the Coastal Act, noted last week that the state law already clearly lays out that reconstruction of homes, businesses and most other structures destroyed by a disaster are exempt from typical coastal development permits — as long as the new building is sited in the same location and not more than 10% larger or taller than the destroyed structure.
In the 2018 Woolsey fire, which devastated areas in and around Malibu, the commission coordinated with city and county officials to help homeowners rebuild. Coastal officials also noted that over the years, following other devastating natural disasters, the commission has processed hundreds of “disaster rebuild waivers” in other coastal areas that are directly regulated by the commission.
“When the time comes to rebuild, both the Coastal Act and the Governor’s Executive Order provide a clear pathway for replacing lost structures quickly and easily,” Kate Huckelbridge, the commission’s executive director, said in a statement. “Our hearts go out to all the residents of the L.A. area whose homes and communities have been destroyed by these horrific fires.”
President-elect Donald Trump and other conservatives have castigated Newsom and other Democratic leaders in California for embracing environmental policies that they argue laid the groundwork for this month’s historic destruction. Calling Newsom “incompetent,” Trump said he should resign, and made false statements about water being redirected to protect small fish and about Federal Emergency Management Agency policy.
“The fires are still raging in L.A. The incompetent pols have no idea how to put them out,” Trump wrote Saturday night on Truth Social, his social media platform. “Thousands of magnificent houses are gone, and many more will soon be lost. There is death all over the place. This is one of the worst catastrophes in the history of our Country. They just can’t put out the fires. What’s wrong with them?”
Trump’s transition team did not respond to requests for comment on Saturday.
Newsom, during the NBC interview, said he had asked the incoming president to come view the devastation in person, as Barger did Saturday.
“We want to do it in the spirit of an open hand, not a closed fist. He’s the president-elect,” Newsom said. “I respect the office.”
While noting that many of the buildings that survived the fires were more likely to be built under modern building codes, Newsom said he was worried about the amount of time it would take to rebuild. So his executive order eliminates some CEQA requirements, modifies Coastal Act provisions and ensures property tax assessments are not increased for those who rebuild.
CEQA was signed into law by then-Gov. Ronald Reagan in 1970 amid the burgeoning environmental movement. The Coastal Act was created after a landmark voter proposition in 1972 that was led by a fervent statewide effort to save the coast from unchecked development and devastating oil spills like the 1969 disaster in Santa Barbara that was considered the “environmental shot heard round the world.”
Both have faced challenges for decades, and governors of both parties have argued for more than 40 years that CEQA needs to be reformed. Several of the act’s requirements were temporarily suspended by an executive order issued by Newsom during the pandemic. He argues that now is the time again.
Asked on the news program whether this month’s wildfires are the worst natural disaster in the nation’s history, Newsom noted that recent fires had resulted in a greater loss of life but said, “I think it will be in terms of just the costs associated with it in terms of the scale and scope.”
He called for a California version of the Marshall Plan, the American effort to rebuild Western Europe after World War II.
“We already have a team looking at reimagining L.A. 2.0,” he said, “and we are making sure everyone’s included, not just the folks on the coast, people here that were ravaged by this disaster.”
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