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Covid Cases Are Rising Again. How Cautious Should We Be?

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Covid Cases Are Rising Again. How Cautious Should We Be?

Good morning. It’s Thursday. In the present day we’ll have a look at two units of statistics — on Covid-19 and crime — which can be more durable to parse than they might seem. The virus is surging once more in components of New York Metropolis, however up to now is principally hitting youthful individuals. And new information reveals that shootings have elevated this yr, but homicides have dropped.

In contrast with a month in the past, Covid-19 is spreading twice as quick round New York Metropolis. The town is recording 1,500 new circumstances per day and a 3 % positivity fee. Thus far, youthful adults are most affected, elevating fears that issues may get a lot worse if the rise begins to unfold sooner amongst extra weak older individuals.

But different numbers supply some hope: Hospitalizations have but to rise; circumstances are steadily growing, not spiking; 800,000 extra New Yorker have had booster photographs for the reason that final wave peaked; 83 % of individuals 65 and older at the moment are absolutely vaccinated, with 56 % boosted. And the hundreds of thousands of residents not too long ago contaminated with the Omicron variant are prone to be nicely protected against its subvariant BA.2, which is driving the current rise.

The blended information — together with blended messages, with well being officers urging warning as town up to now declines to reimpose a number of not too long ago lifted vaccine and masks mandates — leaves many New Yorkers not sure how finest to reply, my colleagues Sharon Otterman and Joseph Goldstein report.

“It’s complicated,” Catherine Jordan, 80, stated as she waited for a bus in Queens. “You don’t know what to do.”

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Many people can relate. Guidelines and suggestions can appear to vary as usually because the virus mutates. The brand new wave prompted Mayor Eric Adams to maintain, for now, the preschool masks mandate he’d deliberate to elevate. But the rise comes, seemingly like clockwork, weeks after town stopped requiring bars and eating places to verify vaccine information and let public-school college students go maskless from kindergarten up. And information are more and more incomplete since extra individuals these days do exams at dwelling, that are typically not reported to metropolis businesses.

Everybody calibrates danger in their very own idiosyncratic, generally contradictory means, in response to their private circumstances, danger tolerance and strategy to shifting, imperfect info. (To not point out, it seems, their attitudes on politics and public well being.)

In our household, selections have been already advanced earlier than the brand new subvariant. One little one, in a crowded college, nonetheless masked most days; the opposite, privileged with a well-ventilated, high-ceilinged classroom, didn’t. Figuring that social connection, psychological wellness and exercise have been additionally necessary to our well being, and our neighborhood’s, we noticed buddies and octogenarian kinfolk and attended work conferences. In all probability not coincidentally, we began to get regular colds once more; we nervous, utilizing valuable at-home exams to rule out Covid-19.

Then, final weekend, my husband examined constructive. Not too sick, he retreated to a bed room. A few of us had little coughs, however have been they Covid? Fast exams stated no. The youngsters stored going to high school, below test-to-stay guidelines. However I ended visiting my 83-year-old father — leaving him alone in a hospital recovering from a fall. I’ve now examined constructive.

At the very least the subsequent step appears clear: whisking the youngsters to free metropolis websites for PCR exams. (That will be more durable, and danger exposing others, if we didn’t have a automotive.) The excellent news is, these websites, in my expertise, work shortly and easily.

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To study them and different methods to get free testing within the metropolis, learn this information by my colleague Lola Fadulu.

Good luck on the market.


Climate

Put together for showers and potential thunderstorms within the afternoon and late at night time, with wind gusts and regular temps within the excessive 40s throughout the day and the mid-50s within the night.

alternate-side parking

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In impact till April 14 (Holy Thursday).


The police have launched crime statistics for the primary three months of 2022, they usually, just like the coronavirus information, are a blended bag. Shootings elevated in contrast with the identical interval final yr, as did crimes like burglaries, robberies and grand larcenies, however homicides declined. The police made greater than 4,000 felony arrests final month, twice as many as in final March.

But some kinds of crimes which can be growing are the type probably to unfold worry, similar to subway assaults and assaults on Asians, with 130 hate crime complaints made to the police final yr, up from only one in 2019. Additionally creating worry are shootings of bystanders, a lot of them within the Black and Latino neighborhoods most burdened by the rise in gun violence. In current days, 12-year-old Kade Lewin died in Brooklyn as he ate with kinfolk in a parked automotive, and a 61-year-old lady was killed by a stray bullet within the Bronx.

I requested my colleague Troy Closson, who reported on the information with Ali Watkins, find out how to perceive the numbers.

What’s a very powerful factor to know?

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The true image is extra sophisticated than anybody individual’s notion or one set of knowledge. We’re coping with the pandemic, many adjustments and upheaval that continues. It’s onerous to attract conclusions from short-term statistics and never potential to foretell what’s going to occur. Folks all the time must simplify stats into headlines, however it’s extra advanced than that. And the burden isn’t equally shared. Folks in much less affected neighborhoods could overestimate the rise within the hazard to them, or undercount the influence on others.

How come homicides are down whereas shootings are up?

That’s one thing that gun violence specialists and sociologists are nonetheless grappling with. Some individuals marvel if enhancements in well being care play a job, if hospitals save extra gunshot victims than they used to. However we’re undecided. Typically it’s a battle to provide you with explanations for short-term crime fluctuations. There are numerous elements, together with coincidence.

Why are there extra felony arrests?

On one hand, there’s simply extra individuals to arrest — extra crimes being dedicated. However the police are additionally extra targeted on making gun arrests. A brand new model of the division’s contentious anticrime unit has been reinstated, however that doesn’t clarify most of it.

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METROPOLITAN diary

Expensive Diary:

Early one sunny Saturday in 1975, my good friend Beth and I climbed the steps to the elevated tracks in Far Rockaway and caught the A.

The prepare bumped and rumbled alongside the seaside roads, into Brooklyn after which by means of the tunnel into Manhattan. The lights within the automotive flickered because the prepare screeched into every cease alongside the best way.

At Washington Sq., we jumped off, climbed the steps to the road and emerged into the brilliant daylight of a gorgeous fall day.

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We wandered by means of Greenwich Village, stopping at retailers the place youngsters only a few years older and much hipper than us oversaw considerable inventories of artwork posters, handcrafted jewellery, T-shirts and a broad assortment of different, fantastically random objects.

The profusion of products was past thrilling to us. We drank within the sights and sounds, flapped enthusiastically over a couple of small purchases and tried our greatest to tune into the tradition surrounding us.

To economize, every of us had introduced a sandwich alongside. At one level, we discovered a facet avenue. We sat on a curb between two parked automobiles and had our picnic.

Beth’s sandwich had coleslaw on it, one thing I had by no means thought so as to add. It created a seismic shift in how I thought of meals.

Later, we caught the A, ensuring we bought dwelling earlier than darkish.

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— June Holder

Illustrated by Agnes Lee. Ship submissions right here and learn extra Metropolitan Diary right here.


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Rudy Giuliani, Slow to Transfer Assets to Election Workers, Could Be Held in Contempt

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Rudy Giuliani, Slow to Transfer Assets to Election Workers, Could Be Held in Contempt

Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, was grilled for hours in federal court on Friday after missing several deadlines to hand over $11 million of his prized possessions to two poll workers he defamed after the 2020 election.

Mr. Giuliani avoided, for now, being held in contempt of court — a charge he has been threatened with at various times during the case and that could include jail time.

But for most of his time on the stand, Mr. Giuliani frustrated the judge and the plaintiffs’ lawyers with a spotty memory and vague answers that slowed to a crawl proceedings that were already bogged down in minutiae.

For much of the seven-hour hearing, lawyers on both sides were preoccupied with the question: Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio?

One of the central items of Mr. Giuliani’s collection of sports memorabilia is a jersey signed by Mr. DiMaggio, the Yankees legend, that hung over the former mayor’s fireplace. On Friday, Mr. Giuliani said he had no idea where it was.

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That was not the only missing Yankees great.

“There is no Reggie Jackson picture,” Mr. Giuliani said, referring to the right-fielder known as Mr. October. He had previously said in court documents that the picture would be handed over to the plaintiffs. But now, the photo didn’t exist, according to Mr. Giuliani. “The picture was Derek Jeter,” he said. “I was kind of confused about it.”

The judge, Lewis J. Liman, appeared skeptical of Mr. Giuliani’s puzzlement, noting that such a rare collectible, especially for an avowed Yankees fan, would be top of mind.

“I’m sorry,” Mr. Giuliani said in response to questions about the collectibles, and a number of other items that were expected to be found in his New York apartment. “When I looked, this is what I found.”

At the heart of the contempt charges he continues to face is whether Mr. Giuliani, 80, has been uncooperative with the handover of his personal assets, which will serve as a small down payment on the $148 million defamation judgment that he owes the plaintiffs, Ruby Freeman and her daughter, Shaye Moss. Mr. Giuliani said, repeatedly and without evidence, that the women helped steal the presidential election from Donald J. Trump more than four years ago.

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The assets include a 10-room apartment on the Upper East Side of Manhattan; a 1980 Mercedes-Benz convertible; a collection of 26 designer watches; and rare Yankees collectibles, the most valuable of which might be the signed and framed DiMaggio jersey.

More than two months after a federal court judge ordered Mr. Giuliani to hand over the items, the former mayor and his lawyers contend that he has tried to comply fully, but that the process has been onerous.

“Mr. Giuliani is an 80-year-old man who has been hit by a whirlwind of discovery,” said Joseph M. Cammarata, Mr. Giuliani’s lawyer, who specialized in divorce cases before joining the defense team. Mr. Giuliani is also facing civil and criminal charges in other cases, stemming from his time as Mr. Trump’s personal lawyer.

In roughly three hours on the stand on Friday, Mr. Giuliani repeatedly responded that he could not remember details about his personal items or their whereabouts.

While pressing Mr. Giuliani, Meryl Governski, one of the lawyers for the plaintiffs, turned her attention to a checking account subject to the seizure.

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“Where does it say that you turned over the cash?” she asked Mr. Giuliani, pointing out an omission in a recent letter he wrote to the court.

Mr. Giuliani, flipping through a bulky binder of materials, appeared flustered. “Are we talking about the Mercedes now?” he said.

As the hearing dragged on, lawyers on both sides seemed to test Judge Liman’s patience. After a long series of objections by Mr. Cammarata, nearly all of them overruled, Judge Liman chastised the defense.

“If you have one more speaking objection, sir, you’re going to have to sit down,” he said. “You know the rules.”

On Thursday, Mr. Giuliani’s lawyer asked if his client could appear virtually, because of medical issues related to his left knee, as well as breathing problems attributed to Mr. Giuliani’s time spent at the World Trade Center after the Sept. 11 attacks.

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But Judge Liman, who had a testy exchange with Mr. Giuliani about the case in November, said he would not accept Mr. Giuliani’s testimony unless he attended in person. So the former mayor, in a dark blue suit and glasses, walked into the 15th floor courtroom on Friday with a visible limp and a dry cough.

The transfer was originally scheduled to take place in late October. But one deadline after another has passed, and lawyers for the women said they have received only a fraction of the property.

The women have yet to receive legal possession of Mr. Giuliani’s apartment, once listed for over $6 million, in part because paperwork has not been updated since his divorce from his ex-wife Judith Giuliani, according to court filings. The title to Mr. Giuliani’s convertible, which he said was once owned by Lauren Bacall, has yet to be transferred.

But Mr. Giuliani raised eyebrows on Election Day, when he appeared in the passenger seat of the same convertible, more than a week after the initial turnover deadline. On Friday, he said he has requested a copy of the title to the car three times, but has yet to receive it.

In November, Mr. Giuliani’s original lawyers withdrew from the case, citing an undisclosed professional ethics reason.

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In a recently unsealed letter explaining their departure, one of the lawyers, Kenneth Caruso, a longtime friend of Mr. Giuliani, said his client was not cooperating in the discovery process related to a condominium he owns in Palm Beach, Fla., and was withholding access to his electronic devices.

The judge will determine on Monday whether Mr. Giuliani was uncooperative during the discovery process. A separate hearing will be held to discuss his turnover efforts.

Later this month, Mr. Giuliani also faces the possibility of contempt charges in a Washington, D.C., court, where he has been accused of continuing to publicly make false claims about the two Georgia poll workers.

On Jan. 16, Mr. Giuliani is expected back in court to argue that his Palm Beach condo, as well as three personalized Yankees World Series rings, should be excluded from the handover.

Outside the courthouse, at a prepared mic stand, Mr. Giuliani, who typically appeared energized and combative, demurred.

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“It would be inappropriate and unwise to say a darn thing about this case right now,” he said.

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9 Plays to Warm Up Winter in New York

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9 Plays to Warm Up Winter in New York

In New York, Broadway hits its winter lull in January, as Off Broadway and beyond burst into activity. If most of the tourists have gone home after the holidays, many of the visiting theater artists have arrived from all over, for the annual festivals that draw a tantalizing breadth of new work.

The venerable Under the Radar festival (Saturday through Jan. 19), now in its post-Public Theater era, is blossoming lushly again, with some of the city’s major companies participating. The Prototype Festival (Thursday through Jan. 19) has a full menu of interdisciplinary opera, while the Exponential Festival (through Feb. 2) centers local emerging experimental theater makers. There’s also the International Fringe Encore Series (through March 16), whose lineup includes “Gwyneth Goes Skiing,” one of two Gwyneth Paltrow-focused shows at last year’s Edinburgh Festival Fringe.

It’s a bountiful month, on festival stages and elsewhere. Here are nine shows worth keeping in mind.

In this hourlong play by the Iranian writer-director Amir Reza Koohestani, a political prisoner in Tehran asks her husband to help a young woman, who was blinded in a protest, to run a marathon in Paris. The more dangerous race is the one they undertake from there: trying to cross the English Channel through the tunnel without being hit by a train. A two-hander performed in Persian with English supertitles, and presented with Arian Moayed’s company, Waterwell, it’s about surveillance, oppression and the insistent pursuit of freedom. The critic Michael Billington called it “mesmerizing.” Part of Under the Radar. (Saturday through Jan. 24, St. Ann’s Warehouse)

The Canadian puppet artist Ronnie Burkett is a marvel to watch, manipulating populous casts of marionettes all on his own. Too seldom seen in New York, he arrives this month for a brief run of his new play, which landed on The Globe and Mail’s top-10 list of 2024 shows. The story is about an old man, Joe, and his aged dog, Mister, who lose their home to gentrification and hit the streets, approaching misfortune as adventure. This is not puppetry for little ones, though; audience members must be 16 or older. Part of Under the Radar. (Tuesday through Jan. 12, Lincoln Center)

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The company Wakka Wakka (“The Immortal Jellyfish Girl”) descends into the underworld with this sparkling puppet piece about a pair of skeletons: a dodo and a boy. Their ancient bones are in the process of disintegrating. Then, out of nowhere, the bird grows a new bone, sprouts fresh feathers — and is apparently not dead as a dodo after all. Directed by Gwendolyn Warnock and Kirjan Waage, who wrote it with the ensemble, this show is recommended for ages 7 and up. But be warned: Wakka Wakka does not shy from darkness. Part of Under the Radar. (Wednesday through Feb. 9, Baruch Performing Arts Center)

American history and politics are Robert Schenkkan’s dramatic bailiwick. He won a Pulitzer Prize for “The Kentucky Cycle” and a Tony Award for “All the Way.” And Brian Cox starred as Lyndon B. Johnson in Schenkkan’s most recent Broadway production, “The Great Society.” For this satire, though, the playwright teams up with the Portuguese company Mala Voadora and the director Jorge Andrade to tell a distinctly Portuguese story, pitting the rooster that is a symbol of that country against António de Oliveira Salazar, the dictator who ruled it for decades. Part of Under the Radar. (Wednesday through Jan. 19, 59E59 Theaters)

Eliya Smith, a master of fine arts candidate at the University of Texas at Austin whose previous forays into New York theater include the intriguingly strange, fragmented elegy “Deadclass, Ohio,” makes her Off Broadway playwriting debut with this world premiere. Directed by the Obie Award winner Les Waters (“Dana H.”), it’s about a group of teenagers in a summer cabin in Hurt, Va., confronting loss. And, yes, even this camp has a resident guitarist. (Thursday through Feb. 16, Atlantic Theater Company)

The experimental company Target Margin Theater does not pussyfoot when it comes to re-examining canonical classics. Adapted and directed by David Herskovits, this interpretation of “Show Boat” aims to reframe the Jerome Kern and Oscar Hammerstein II musical from 1927, about the entertainers and others aboard a riverboat on the Mississippi in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Groundbreaking in its time for its themes, including racism and interracial marriage, “Show Boat” has long been accused of being racist itself. The content advisory warns: “The production includes racially offensive language and incidents.” Part of Under the Radar. (Thursday through Jan. 26, N.Y.U. Skirball)

The Golan Heights-based writer-performer Khawla Ibraheem plays a Gazan woman rehearsing what she will do if she hears a low-level warning bomb — a “knock on the roof” by the Israeli military — which would mean she had only minutes to evacuate her home before an airstrike escalated. Directed by the Obie winner Oliver Butler (“What the Constitution Means to Me”), who developed the play with Ibraheem, it won awards at the Edinburgh Festival Fringe this summer. Part of Under the Radar, this production moves to the Royal Court Theater in London in February. (Jan. 10 through Feb. 16, New York Theater Workshop)

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Jordan Harrison’s new play imagines a history of the Late Human Age as told by the “nonorganic beings” who will succeed us. Starting on the night in 1816 when Mary Shelley told her ghost story, it hops through time to 2240. Building on themes Harrison contemplated in “Marjorie Prime,” it’s about what it is to be human, and whether we’ve sown the seeds of our destruction. Produced with the Vineyard Theater in New York and the Goodman Theater in Chicago, where it is slated to run this spring. David Cromer and Caitlin Sullivan direct. (Jan. 11 through Feb. 23, Playwrights Horizons)

The writer-director Matthew Gasda, who first gained traction a few years back with his scenester play “Dimes Square,” now stages an adaptation of Chekhov’s “Uncle Vanya,” created with its actors over the past year. Bob Laine, a star of “Dimes Square” (which makes a fleeting return this month), plays the title role in “Vanya,” opposite fellow “Dimes Square” cast member Asli Mumtas as Vanya’s longed-for love interest, Yelena. (Jan. 14 through Feb. 4, Brooklyn Center for Theater Research)

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Video: Adams’s Former Chief Adviser and Her Son Charged With Corruption

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Video: Adams’s Former Chief Adviser and Her Son Charged With Corruption

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Adams’s Former Chief Adviser and Her Son Charged With Corruption

Ingrid Lewis-Martin, who resigned as Mayor Eric Adams’s chief adviser, and her son, Glenn D. Martin II, were charged with taking $100,000 in bribes from two businessmen in a quid-pro-quo scheme.

We allege that Ingrid Lewis-Martin engaged in a long-running bribery, money laundering and conspiracy scheme by using her position and authority as the chief adviser of — chief adviser to the New York City mayor, the second-highest position in city government — to illegally influence city decisions in exchange for in excess of $100,000 in cash and other benefits for herself and her son, Glenn Martin II. We allege that real estate developers and business owners Raizada “Pinky” Vaid and Mayank Dwivedi paid for access and influence to the tune more than $100,000. Lewis-Martin acted as an on-call consultant for Vaid and Dwivedi, serving at their pleasure to resolve whatever issues they had with D.O.B. on their construction projects, and she did so without regard for security considerations and with utter and complete disregard for D.O.B.’s expertise and the public servants who work there.

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