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How the Elections Transparency Act’s ‘dark money’ rules benefited NJ Democrats

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How the Elections Transparency Act’s ‘dark money’ rules benefited NJ Democrats



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The sweeping Elections Transparency Act was sold by Trenton’s ruling Democrats as a necessary revision of New Jersey’s outdated campaign finance system.

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It would beam, for the first time, the purifying light of transparency onto some of New Jersey’s dark money groups, the law’s advocates contended. Complicated “pay-to-play” laws that bedeviled contractors for years would be streamlined. And donor limits would be increased to reflect the rising costs of running elections.

But the law also had another brass-tacks purpose. It provided New Jersey’s Democrats, who hold majorities in both the Assembly and the state Senate, with significant cash to steamroll their Republican rivals. That proved enough to crush the GOP’s hopes of expanding its foothold in Trenton — and maybe regaining majority control — after spending two decades on the sidelines of power.

The Democratic Party enjoyed a lopsided advantage in most of the six competitive contests that dominated each party’s fundraising and attention this fall, according to an examination of election filings released this week by the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission. Campaigns are required to submit reports 20 days after the election.

NJ Democrats reaped dividends — and then some

It was an investment that yielded an important dividend for the Democrats, who had entered the fall contest concerned that their long hold on power was beginning to ebb or, worse, could be washed away in a Republican wave. It didn’t happen.

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Instead of losing ground, the Democrats expanded their control of the Assembly by flipping six seats, while holding their 10-seat margin in the state Senate. In six of the most hotly contested races — which drew most of each party’s money and focus — the Democratic candidates and their accounts poured close to $11 million into the contests, compared with about $4 million by Republicans, records show.

That does not include millions more spent by super PACs and other independent expenditure groups, which raise money under looser guidelines and are not permitted to coordinate with the candidates’ campaigns. A summary of outside spending is expected to be released by ELEC later this week.

But the outside spending role — which included the financing of phony “phantom candidates” linked to the South Jersey Democratic Party machine — more than likely tilted the Democrats’ advantage even further.

‘Dark money’: Disputed election overhaul bill that would expose donors passes NJ Legislature

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An unsurprising edge

To some, the Democratic edge comes as no surprise.

The new Elections Transparency Act allowed for the doubling of campaign contributions for individual candidates and the tripling of large donations to state and county party accounts. That alone, some observers said, made it inevitable that the party that controls both houses of the Legislature and the governor’s office would reap the windfall. It’s the party that controls the fate of coveted legislation and lucrative government contracts.

“Some of the senators were saying, ‘Well, look, this will help us; we’ll be able to raise money throughout the four years,’ ” said Senate Republican leader Anthony Bucco Jr. of Morris County, who voted against the Elections Transparency Act for a variety of reasons. “To me, it was absolutely clear that this was not going to benefit Republicans. It was going to benefit the Democrats, because they’re the party in power.”

And with that money comes the ability to saturate mailboxes and media markets with political advertising and drown out campaigns with lesser means. That was the case in the competitive 11th Legislative District in Monmouth, where state Sen. Vin Gopal was viewed as the most endangered Democrat.

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Charlie Stile: Dark money disclosures in NJ elections are a ‘work in progress.’ Will they work?

Gopal hung on to his seat in the 2021 contest while his two Assembly running mates lost. This time, Gopal found himself in the cross-currents of culture war issues. Several Monmouth County school systems (although outside his own district) were engulfed in a firestorm over “parental rights” involving transgender students while opponents of Gov. Phil Murphy’s push to build offshore wind farms had also infuriated many Jersey Shore residents.

Gopal, whose district includes Asbury Park and Long Branch, distanced himself from both of those issues. But he also had a full Democratic Party effort behind him, including unions, independent attack ads from a group aligned with state Senate President Nick Scutari, and a lopsided fundraising advantage.

Gopal and his Assembly running mates, Luanne Peterpaul and Margie Donlon, amassed $3.7 million compared with $739,000 raised by Republican state Senate challenger Steve Dnistrian and GOP Assembly incumbents Marilyn Piperno and Kim Eulner. In the end, Gopal won by 16 points and swept in Peterpaul and Donlon on his coattails.

GOP ‘ran out of juice’ as labor donations surged

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Ironically, it seemed over the summer that the fury over parental rights, which Republicans sought to harness, was looming as a frightening threat to Democrats. Some feared that it had the ability to attract moderate Democrats and independents and older voters, who tend to have a larger presence in low-turnout elections. But in the end, the Republicans simply didn’t have enough money to communicate for the long haul of the race.

Republicans “ran out of juice,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University. “They couldn’t drive that message through the fall. And the Democrats knew they were gonna pour it on and the Republicans wouldn’t be able to.”

Unions — already generous donors to free-wheeling super PACs and big spenders in their own right — took advantage of the Elections Transparency Act, which doubled what unions could give directly to candidates, from $2,600 to $5,200, and through their PACs, from $8,200 to $16,400. 

Labor’s increased largesse, not surprisingly, benefited the Democrats.

Gopal collected the maximum $16,400 from several union PACs: Greater New Jersey Carpenters, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers 456 and 269, the New Jersey Laborers, and IBEW Local 400, State Electrical Workers, where Gopal is a member. Gopal’s ticket also benefited from the get-out-the-vote manpower of the Service Employees International Union, which bused in canvassers from their locals in New York.

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In the 3rd Legislative District, in Salem, Gloucester and Cumberland counties, state Sen.-elect John Burzichelli, D-Paulsboro, drew $127,000 from unions and union PACs — or $35,800 more than he could have collected under the previous lower limits.

A day after the election, Scutari hailed the Elections Transparency Act “because we saw more transparency than we ever saw before in terms of fundraising.” He was referring specifically to the provisions that required independent expenditure groups to disclose donations of $7,500 or more.

But the early reports this week on the election also make it clear that the new law gave his party an enormous advantage and one that will keep it in power for the next two years — and possibly many more election cycles to come.



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New Jersey

NJ Green Party Candidates Score Nearly 9K Votes In Essex County

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NJ Green Party Candidates Score Nearly 9K Votes In Essex County


ESSEX COUNTY, NJ — Candidates with the Green Party of New Jersey nailed down thousands of votes in Essex County during the 2024 general election, official results show.

While no single Green Party candidate triumphed in Essex County on Election Day, the party still gathered nearly 9,000 votes there.

According to the Essex County Clerk’s Office, candidates who contributed to that total include:

  • Jill Stein and Butch Ware scored 2,356 votes for president
  • Christina Khalil saw 3,093 votes for U.S. Senate in New Jersey, the most of any third-party candidate
  • Christian Robbins earned 343 votes for the U.S. House in the state’s 8th district
  • Jon Carlos Serrano got 1,237 votes for the U.S. House in the state’s 10th district
  • Lily Benavides received 1,766 votes for the U.S. House in the state’s 11th district

Send local news tips and correction requests to eric.kiefer@patch.com. Learn more about advertising on Patch here. Find out how to post announcements or events to your local Patch site.



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This might be New Jersey's snowiest day of the entire winter

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This might be New Jersey's snowiest day of the entire winter


Let it snow! With each passing week, our weather turns progressively colder. New Jersey’s first snowflakes of the season are now in view. And the Winter Solstice is only a little more than a month away. It is time to start thinking seriously about wintry weather. More specifically: Snow.

Here’s when to expect NJ’s first snow of the season

While pondering the many uses of “bread and milk,” I had a scientific curiosity.

I wondered if there was one day of the year that tends to be snowier than every other date on the calendar for New Jersey. Sure, there is an average “peak” to wintry weather. (In fact, there are three distinct peaks — more on that in a moment.) But can we pinpoint a single day that represents the height of New Jersey’s snow season?

As a matter of fact, yes we can.

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Methodology

To complete this analysis, I queried the Applied Climate Information System, a warehouse of weather and climate data.

I specifically looked at exactly 50 years of snowfall data, from 1971 to 2020. (An admittedly arbitrary choice for period of record, but I wanted a healthy spread of snow observations both geographically and temporally.) Approximately 675 weather stations reported snow data in New Jersey in that time frame.

For the purposes of this project, I marked a calendar day as “snowy” if any single weather station in the state reported at least one inch of snowfall on that date.

An inch of snow is more than enough to snarl traffic and force you to drag out the snow brush yet again. (Getty Images / Vadven)

An inch of snow is more than enough to snarl traffic and force you to drag out the snow brush yet again. (Getty Images / Vadven)

The Snowiest Day

There is actually a definitive answer here. With 24 out of 50 years (1971-2020) reporting snow — just shy of half — February 5th is the winner.

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And what a funny coincidence: February 5th is also National Weatherperson’s Day. The most important holiday of the entire year!

Detailed Close-up of Groundhog Sitting up and Looking Left

This is a groundhog. Not a meteorologist. (Louise Wightman)

Second place is February 13th with 23 occurrences. Third is January 21nd at 22. And tied for fourth are January 19th, January 25th, February 4th, and February 6th, all at 21 times in 50 years.

February 9 Snow

During this February 9, 2017 snowstorm, a worker clears the platform at a NJ Transit train station. (NJ Transit)

Digging into the Statistics

We can even take all the years of snow data and create a graph. This shows, for each day of snow season in New Jersey (October 4th to May 9th), the percentage of years from 1971-2020 that at least one inch of snow was reported somewhere in New Jersey.

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(Visualization: Dan Zarrow / Google Sheets, Data: ACIS)
(Visualization: Dan Zarrow / Google Sheets, Data: ACIS)

Day-to-day variability is to be expected. That is resolved by the red trendline, representing a 14 point (2 week) moving average. There are some definitive patterns noticeable here.

First, I want to point out that the dataset is basically tri-modal. Meaning there are three definitive peaks in snowstorm activity. One little bump in snowy days around mid-December, leading up to the Winter Solstice. Another occurs in mid to late January, matching with the climatologically coldest temperatures of the year — the “dead of winter”. And another peak occurs in early to mid February, including the highest bar on February 5th.

In total, 178 days out of 366 have seen observed inch-plus snow in New Jersey. That is an impressive 49% of the year in which it has snowed here.

October snow has happened on a few occasions in New Jersey, including 2011 shown here. (Getty Images)

October snow has happened on a few occasions in New Jersey, including 2011 shown here. (Getty Images)

Looking at our snow season from start to finish (i.e. left to right on the graph), it is clear that snow can fall in November. But inch-plus snow is pretty rare in NJ until December.

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There is a notable minimum value on December 24th. Christmas Eve. Only 4 of the last 50 years have shown an inch of magical Christmas Eve snow. But 11 Christmas Day snow observations have occurred. That strikes me as an odd outlier, and makes me wonder if there’s some observation bias or other funkiness with the reports here.

Christmas snow is especially magical. (Craig Allen photo)

Christmas snow is especially magical. (Craig Allen photo)

You will notice another data minimum on February 29th, due to Leap Day. 4 out of the 13 February 29ths in the survey period reported snow. That comes to about 30%, in line with other nearby dates in late February and early March.

Finally, it is notable how quickly accumulating snow chances disappear beyond the first day of Spring, around March 21st. Snow in April is about as rare as November, at each tail of the graph.

Spring snow happens from time to time, and can cause damage to budding plants. (FamVeld)

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Spring snow happens from time to time, and can cause damage to budding plants. (FamVeld)

Final Thoughts

Obviously, each winter season is different for New Jersey. And this climatological analysis in no way serves as a short-range or long-range forecast. Just a neat little investigation, proving that common sense largely matches reality when it comes to the timing of peak snow chances in New Jersey.

So stock up on the road salt, wear your pajamas inside-out, and start brewing the hot chocolate. February 5th could be a wintry day!

Let it snow: 12 things to know about winter forecasting in NJ

Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Check out Dan’s weather blog or follow him on Facebook for your latest weather forecast updates.

Glossary of NJ winter weather words and phrases

Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow

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20 structures threatened as crews battle wildfire in Hainesport, N.J.

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20 structures threatened as crews battle wildfire in Hainesport, N.J.


This story originally appeared on 6abc.

Crews are working to contain a 40-acre wildfire in Hainesport, Burlington County.

The blaze broke out Monday night in the area of Bancroft Lane and Cove Court.

Chopper 6 was overhead as New Jersey Forest Fire crews worked to establish a containment line directly behind several homes in the area.

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In a 9 p.m. update, officials said no structures were threatened, which was down from 20 earlier in the evening.

Bancroft Lane, Cove Court, and Wharton Place all remain closed.

The fire was about 20% contained Monday night.

No injuries have been reported.



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