Donald Trump on stage at campaign event in Atkinson, N.H. on January 16, 2024.

The University of New Hampshire dropped polls from three New England States last week — but New Hampshire may as well have been on its own planet.

In Rhode Island, President Joe Biden holds a 19-point lead over former President Donald Trump at 52-33 percent, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. taking 6 percent.

In Massachusetts, Biden’s pulling Vladimir Putin numbers, beating Trump nearly 30 points (55-26 percent), while RFK Jr.’s at 10 percent.

But just across the state line in New Hampshire, Biden and Trump are essentially tied at 44-41 percent, with Biden’s lead in the margin of error.

This latest Granite State Poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center bolsters last week’s New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll finding the two deadlocked at 37 percent.

Worth noting: The NHJournal poll gave respondents a “none of these” option, which likely helped keep the candidates’ gross numbers lower than the other polls. But it doesn’t change the trend.

Biden is in danger of being just the second Democrat since 1992 to lose New Hampshire’s four Electoral College votes. (Al Gore in 2000 was the other.)

The question NHJournal has been getting since the poll was published has been some version of, “Look, I know it’s your poll, but c’mon. You don’t really believe Biden’s in trouble in New Hampshire?”

To which NHJournal has been replying, “Don’t ask us. Ask Mark Halperin.”

Halperin is one of the most astute observers of American politics, and on the Memorial Day weekend edition of the NHJournal podcast he doesn’t dismiss the possibility that the president is in trouble in the Granite State.

“It is a state that I think has a bunch of discerning voters who may evaluate the Biden presidency as a failure,” Halperin said of New Hampshire. “And it’s a state that is not afraid to seek dramatic change. And of course, the relatively popular governor has endorsed Trump.”

“Endorsed” is a bit strong, but Sununu is voting for Trump — a fact he discussed on Fox and Friends over the weekend — using his “51=49 percent” formula. (“I’m 51-49 for Trump, and that’s where I’m going to vote.”)

Will his fellow Granite Staters come to the same conclusion?

If they do, says Halperin, if Trump really does get to November as a competitive candidate in New Hampshire, “he’ll win [the White House] in a landslide.”

Many New Hampshire Democrats — and some Never Trump Granite State Republicans — continue to insist that isn’t possible. Biden’s going to win re election, and he’s going to dominate New Hampshire along the way, they tell NHJournal. Asked about the new polls — or the past year’s worth of national polls showing Trump consistently winning — and Democrats shrug them off.

“There has never been an election like this, ever,” one Granite State Democrat told NHJournal on background. “I have zero faith in pollsters to find out what people really think.”

To which NHJournal has been replying, “Don’t look at us. Ask Joe Biden.”

The same president who refused to set foot in the Granite State during the entire First in the Nation presidential primary season has now been to New Hampshire twice in the past two months. That’s as many visits as swing states like Georgia and Nevada. Why?

Maybe the campaign thinks he has to, speculates Halperin. He points out that beyond the seven states viewed as potential pick-ups by both sides—AZ/GA/MI/NC/NV/PA/WI—Trump has a list of potential pick-ups: “Trump has New Hampshire, he has Minnesota, maybe Virginia.”

“But the next state for Biden after the top seven? It’s not clear at this point what it is. They can pretend it’s Florida, but they’re down by a lot,” Halperin said.

And so Biden comes to Nashua, speaks to a handful of supporters, says nothing memorable and leaves. Because he has to do something. Because there’s little else he can do as a candidate.

This is where the math gets tricky for Granite State Democrats. While they remain loyal to their president, 71 percent (yes, you read that right) of independent voters disapprove of how Biden is doing his job. Democratic candidates like gubernatorial hopeful Cinde Warmington continue to say Biden’s doing a great job, because they’ve got a primary to win. But will publicly defending Biden’s policies on inflation and illegal immigration pay off in November?

One early indicator: No New Hampshire Democrat seeking reelection in November — including U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas — appeared with Biden during his Granite State stop. Check their social media, too. Other than passing references to veterans’ issues, you’d never know the president was here.

Biden backers keep saying that there’s plenty of time, that it’s still early, that the Biden campaign has yet to carpet bomb the swing states with ads about abortion and January 6. And that’s all true.

But it’s also true that Memorial Day has come and gone… and Trump is still winning. He’s winning the RealClearPolitics average in national polls. He’s winning in at least six of the seven swing states. And perhaps  most astonishing, he may be winning in New Hampshire.

America has a long, hot summer ahead. A lot of things will happen, perhaps even a presidential debate (though that’s by no means certain.) If polling on Labor Day looks like it did on Memorial Day, we are in for one hell of a ride in New Hampshire.

CONCORD, NH — After a relatively decent holiday weekend — yeah, it ended wet, so expect more rain during the next few days.

Forecasters are calling for cloudy skies on Tuesday, but then there will be some sun with highs in the lower 80s and wind gusts that may get up to 20 mph. Overnight lows will drop down into the mid-50s.

There is a 50-50 chance of rain on Wednesday afternoon, with highs in the mid-70s. Overnight lows will be in the lower 50s.

Similar weather is expected on Thursday.

By Friday, the sun returns with highs in the low 70s and the weekend looks pretty good, too.

The latest weather conditions can be found on the front page of every Patch.com site in the United States, including the 14 New Hampshire Patch news and community websites covering Amherst, Bedford, Concord, Exeter, Hampton, Londonderry, Manchester, Merrimack, Milford, Nashua, North Hampton, Portsmouth, Salem, Windham, and Across NH. Local weather reports for New Hampshire are posted on Sundays and Thursdays. Alerts are published when needed.

Get Out, New Hampshire!

Here is a roundup of fun things to do around the Granite State this week

CONCORD, NH — Dwight Davis went straight to the point when he spoke at The Barn at Bull Meadow on the afternoon of Tuesday, April 30.

“The New Hampshire Center for Justice and Equity is making it possible to have a seat at the table of decision-making,” said Davis, chair of the NHCJE’s board, to the more than 150 activists, business leaders, educators, labor organizers, and politicians in attendance. “Because if you don’t have a seat at the table, you might be on the menu.”

Davis’ remarks opened the Second Annual Meeting for the NHCJE. Launched in September 2022, NHCJE seeks to elevate and empower people of color in New Hampshire by fostering connections, changing systems, and meeting community needs to make a better Granite State where all belong. In his opening remarks, NHCJE founding President and CEO Anthony Poore made sure to thank all those who contributed toward advancing the center and its goals.

“We have a lot to be thankful for,” he said. “Let’s be clear: This work is hard. We recognize that making progress on these issues will take work.”

He went on to say the work will continue to become more challenging but of crucial importance as New Hampshire’s population continues to diversify. As of the 2020 Census, 13% of the state’s population identified as people of color, the first time this proportion hit double digits in NH in Census history.

Though changing, the Granite State’s long history and narrative of a largely racially homogeneous population means that there will be challenges moving forward in the eyes of many participants.

“A lot of the culture in New Hampshire is the lack of diversity,” said Jason Green, Deputy Director of the New Hampshire Chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), adding that Granite Staters must learn to live with a more diverse population.

In counting off NHCJE’s successes, Poore highlighted NHCJE’s Implicit Bias and Tactical Mindset Training for law enforcement. The program — which has already trained 200 public safety officers in multiple jurisdictions across the state — looks to mitigate the harm caused by racially biased policing. Poore said NHCJE hopes to expand the program and work with more agencies soon.

He added to the list of wins the increasing number of visitors to the NHCJE website, saying that in 2023, there were 15,000 unique visitors from 49 states and about 42,000 page views.

Bringing NHCJE’s Policy Platform to Life

The opening speakers did not allow themselves to go on for too long. They swiftly moved the event toward collaboration and advocacy.

“Who likes to be talked at for three hours?” said Jamal Downey, the event’s MC and NHCJE board member. “Let’s take a minute to look at how [activism] is supposed to work in an ideal setting.”

In that spirit, attendees were split into six groups focused on each of NHCJE’s Sectors of Effort — Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice, Government, Education, Health, Economic Development, and Civic Engagement. The groups were encouraged to discuss NHCJE’s Policy Platform, exploring the strengths, weaknesses, and blind spots of each pillar.

The Law Enforcement & Criminal Justice table had a particularly lively conversation focused on the availability of demographic incarceration data, re-entry after leaving prison, and combatting stigma.

“What’s missing [from the policy platform] is recognition of an omnipresent stigma,” said Anna Adachi-Mejia, a coach, founder of Adachi Labs, LLC, and activist for prisoner reintegration. “Stigma applies to everything.”

Jason Green of the New Hampshire ACLU added that stigma directed at returning prisoners from the general public is not the only type of stigma that needs to be addressed. “Stigma is not just external,” he said. “It’s about feeling worthy and about dignity.”

The group agreed with the NHCJE Policy Platform in its call for greater detail from authorities in reporting the demographics of their incarcerated populations in the hope it may reveal the information needed to help create programs for issues like reintegration into society.

“Thinking about data is nuanced,” said Adachi-Mejia. “But it helps to understand which pathways are associated with different experiences.”

In the ensuing discussion between all groups, it became clear that all present needed to look at the big picture because all the issues NHCJE hopes to confront are connected.

“We can’t afford to not take a systems approach to our problems here,” said Woullard Lett, Education Chair of the Manchester Chapter of the NAACP.

Taking Stock 

Afterward, the groups reconvened for panel discussions about policy activism and government.

The first panel focused on efforts to make permanent the Medicaid Expansion under the Affordable Care Act and combating the 2021 Divisive Concepts Law.

“We defended some things that were very good,” said Josephine ‘Jo’ Porter, panel moderator and Chief Strategy Officer at NHCJE. “And we went after some things that were very bad.”

Brian Hawkins, Director of Government Relations for the National Education Association’s NH chapter, spoke about the fight against HB544 — the Divisive Concepts Law. The law, now in effect in the Granite State was passed despite overwhelming public testimony in opposition during the 2021 legislative session.

“As much as we think of ourselves as a homogeneous state, we are diversifying,” Hawkins said.  He added the law’s vagueness effectively stopped many classroom conversations about issues of identity.

“That is the point,” Hawkins said. “The point is to write something so vague that it would chill discussion in the classroom.”

Hawkins added that, at first, they thought there was no chance the bill could pass, but events quickly dispelled that notion.

“So, what can we do?” asked Lisa Vásquez, a Behavioral Health Strategist at the City of Nashua’s Division of Public Health, in response to Hawkins’s presentation. “What else could have been done to prevent that from becoming a law?”

“By taking even the things that are really out there seriously,” Hawkins responded. “You have to take it all seriously now.”

Jake Berry, the Vice President of Policy at New Futures, Inc., a public health advocacy non-profit, followed with a talk about the successful push for continuing Medicaid Expansion.

Initially passed as part of the Affordable Care Act in 2010, Medicaid Expansion means that those with incomes 138% or more below the Federal Poverty Line can access the program for low-income Americans.

Berry said that, though it faced considerable opposition in the state, the secret to their success was building a coalition of advocates for children, the elderly, veterans, the impoverished, businesses, and others.

“This is a multi-year process,” Berry said. “We have to keep our heads up and keep going forward.”

Effective Lobbying

The day’s second panel featured Jim Monahan, Managing Partner for government relations firm The Dupont Group; Abigail Rogers, Legislative Liaison for the Division of Public Health at the NH Department of Health and Human Services; and NH House of Representatives Minority Leader Rep. Matthew Wilhelm, D-Manchester.

Moderator Ben Frost, the Deputy Executive Director at New Hampshire Housing, opened the panel with a question about handling diverse viewpoints in the General Court.

“I feel like I learn every day more and more how to do that,” Wilhelm said. Wilhelm continued that one of the biggest difficulties in getting progressive change through the General Court was the constitutionally mandated pay rate for legislators of $100 a year.

Wilhelm said the pay rate means the legislature tends to skew towards older and wealthier individuals. With the size of the legislature (over 400 legislators) and frequent turn-over of many legislators “because of that, change moves a little slow”.

Frost later asked when it would be best to contact a department head directly rather than a legislator. Rogers said legislative agency leaders can help develop strategies to tackle New Hampshire’s social issues.

“We’re subject matter experts,” said Rogers, adding that contacts in the General Court were necessary too, since many decisions come down to the availability of funds.

Frost then asked Monahan — a lobbyist — for his thoughts. He recommended that those gathered take advantage of election season and invite legislative candidates to visit their respective organizations to give them an idea of what the group is about. In this way, he said, they could build relationships for change.