New Hampshire
Nikki Haley keeps one eye on Iowa as she seeks to win New Hampshire primary
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley faces a unique challenge in the final two weeks before the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses.
She must simultaneously woo Iowans who could give her an added boost above rival Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) while stumping in New Hampshire, where independent voters could help her defeat former President Donald Trump, the front-runner, in the state’s primary on Jan. 23.
TRUMP HOLDS FOX NEWS TOWN HALL TO COUNTER CNN IOWA DEBATE WITH DESANTIS AND HALEY
Unlike DeSantis and to a lesser extent Trump, Haley has not staked her 2024 campaign on winning the Iowa caucuses. She has instead placed a sizable emphasis on New Hampshire and her home state of South Carolina. But given Iowa’s outsize advantage in the primary, a strong showing there will be crucial in her bid to replace DeSantis as the only viable alternative candidate to Trump.
The Florida governor has gone all in for Iowa, campaigning in all 99 counties and positioning himself for an outright win or a strong second-place finish behind Trump. Haley’s campaign and allies are covertly hoping a second-place finish in Iowa would steal momentum away from DeSantis ahead of the New Hampshire primary, where Haley is hoping for a second-place finish or better as well.
“I think the expectations for Haley in Iowa are appropriately less, but if she can overperform there, then I think she’s got, I think, a strong team waiting for her in New Hampshire led by the most popular Republican in the state,” said Jim Merrill, a seasoned New Hampshire GOP strategist, of Haley and the support of Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH). “And then she’s going to go to her home state in South Carolina. So it feels like a pretty shrewd strategy that they’re executing here with the final two weeks.”
“It’s tougher to organize in Iowa because it’s harder to find the caucus people … and it’s heavily dominated by evangelical Christians,” said Linda Fowler, a political scientist at Dartmouth University. “So with that context, I think New Hampshire makes sense for her. Plus, she has an enthusiastic governor who’s stumping for her.”
The former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor has barnstormed the Granite State with Sununu since she earned his backing last month. Yet Haley hasn’t quite abandoned Iowa and even plans to bring Sununu with her to campaign in Des Moines on Friday. She finished the final days of 2023 in the Hawkeye State and will face off against DeSantis during a CNN debate in Iowa on Jan. 10. (Trump is skipping the debate for a Fox News town hall at the same time.)
“Nikki isn’t taking any voter for granted. She’s traveling across Iowa, answering every question and shaking every hand. We’re fighting for every inch,” said Olivia Perez-Cubas, Haley’s spokeswoman.
There is some historical precedence that Haley’s gamble could pay off. The late Arizona Sen. John McCain in his 2000 presidential run mostly ignored Iowa and went on to beat George W. Bush in New Hampshire but lost the South Carolina primary. He would ultimately lose the nomination to Bush. But during his 2008 presidential run, McCain again bypassed Iowa and won the New Hampshire primary and the South Carolina primary before eventually becoming the GOP nominee.
Haley’s allies aren’t wasting any funds in helping her replicate McCain’s 2008 strategy.
SFA Fund, the super PAC backing Haley’s campaign, outspent all other groups in 2023 at $42 million, according to the ad tracking company AdImpact. That’s roughly $2 million more than DeSantis’s super PAC, Never Back Down, spent in 2023 at $40.2 million. Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., spent $34.4 million.
SFA Fund is the top spending advertiser of ’23.
Andy Beshear is the top spending candidate. Despite the #MDSen primary being in May 2024, David Trone was the 3rd highest-spending candidate. Tim Scott, who dropped out last month, is the highest-spending Republican candidate. pic.twitter.com/DSnbyLQYOB
— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) December 29, 2023
Americans for Prosperity, the billionaire Koch family-backed group, is spending $70 million to boost Haley in Iowa. “We’re just now starting to see the money, and it could make a difference,” Fowler said of Americans for Prosperity’s efforts to help Haley.
The DeSantis campaign slammed both Haley and Trump and their supporters for spending more than $38.4 million in negative ad spending against the governor, the most out of all the 2024 candidates.
“And despite her team’s best efforts to keep expectations low for Haley in the Hawkeye State, the numbers don’t lie,” wrote Andrew Romeo, DeSantis’s campaign spokesman, in an email Tuesday. “The Wall Street Journal’s John McCormick noted yesterday how Haley and the super PAC supporting her will combine to drastically outspend the competition down the stretch in Iowa.”
Richard Arenberg, senior fellow in international and public affairs and visiting political science professor at Brown University, told the Washington Examiner that a respectable finish in Iowa will help Haley as she prepares to battle against Trump in New Hampshire, a state that will be decided by independents who make up the majority of voters.
But a recent flap-up over the origin of the Civil War could distract from Haley’s efforts. Haley caused a stir last week when she didn’t mention slavery as the cause of the war during a town hall event in New Hampshire. She cleaned up her comments in the aftermath of the backlash.
“I think that had a kind of chilling effect on the enthusiasm of some independents that maybe she could energize to come into the Republican primary and vote for her,” Arenberg said. “But a surprising second place in Iowa could maybe warm that up again.”
Scott Huffmon, a political scientist and the founder of the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University, claimed the controversy wouldn’t change her performance in Iowa. It “could move the odd New Hampshire independent,” but it would have “no impact on South Carolina.”
“And, despite her promise to the Sons of Confederate Veterans to not remove the Confederate flag from the statehouse when she first ran for governor, she publicly called for it to come down after the Mother Emanuel massacre, so that inoculates her somewhat,” he added referencing the 2015 murders of nine African American members of Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston, South Carolina.
Still, Haley must face the gargantuan task of somehow beating Trump in New Hampshire, where he polls at 46.3%, according to the RealClearPolitics average of the Granite State, and Haley polls at 24.8%.
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“Trump is still king of the hill in New Hampshire. No question about it. His support has been pretty static. It hasn’t really moved up and hasn’t really moved down,” said Merrill. “Haley has accomplished, I think, half of the battle, which is getting yourself out of the scrum of all the other candidates, whether current candidates or those that have withdrawn like [former Vice President Mike] Pence or [Sen. Tim] Scott [R-SC] to position herself as the No. 2.”
The other half of the battle, Merrill added, is converting undecided voters and encouraging other people to consider voting due to the state’s same-day registration law. “I’m sure the Haley campaign has worked hard to identify people who aren’t currently registered but who could choose to do so Election Day and turn them out,” he said.
New Hampshire
Two Snow Systems Heading To New Hampshire This Week: Forecasters
CONCORD, NH — Weather forecasters are predicting two snowstorm systems will move into the region, but they are not expecting significant accumulation.
On Sunday morning, the National Weather Service issued a “hazardous weather outlook” for the state, warning that snowstorms were expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. The first storm will bring “heavy snow showers or snow squalls” with the passing cold front.
“In addition,” the alert said, “westerly wind gusts between 35-45 mph are possible.”
No snow accumulation for Tuesday was posted in the alert.
AccuWeather.com, however, said the Tuesday system had a 63 percent of delivering “a coasting to an inch” to Concord and the capital region sometime between 4 and 10 a.m. In Nashua and southern New Hampshire, including Salem and inland Rockingham County, there is an 81 percent chance of “little to no accumulation.” No snow is expected on the Seacoast.
For Wednesday, NWS forecasters said, “There is the potential for a light to moderate snowfall on Wednesday from a clipper system.” Snow accumulation amounts were published.
On Monday, expect mostly cloudy skies, highs in the mid-30s, and lows in the mid-20s, with wind gusts up to 30 mph.
On Tuesday, snow is expected before the afternoon, and then the sun reappears. Temps will be in the upper 20s and into the teens at night. Wind gusts could be as high as 35 mph.
Snow is expected in the early and late morning on Wednesday, with highs near 30 and overnight lows in the single digits.
As a cold front moves into the state on Thursday, temps will drop into the teens during the day and near zero during the evening.
Similar weather is expected on Friday.
The most up-to-date weather is available on every Patch.com site in the United States. This includes the 14 New Hampshire Patch news and community websites for Amherst, Bedford, Concord, Exeter, Hampton, Londonderry, Manchester, Merrimack, Milford, Nashua, North Hampton, Portsmouth, Salem, Windham, and Across NH. Patch posts local weather reports for New Hampshire every Sunday and Wednesday and publishes alerts as needed.
New Hampshire
Distant Dome: Lots of Options for Education Funding Changes
By GARRY RAYNO, Distant Dome
The 2025 session of the New Hampshire legislature began with a number of hot button issues that have garnered headlines from universal Education Freedom Accounts to restricting abortion rights.
But there is a very large elephant in the room that could overwhelm other discussions depending on what the state Supreme Court decides in the appeals of the Rand and ConVal education funding suits.
The issue of state aid to public education is beginning to resonate with state residents who are beginning to understand what was usually a local issue to debate has been severely impacted by what lawmakers have done in Concord over the years and in the past few years particularly.
At the Kearsarge Regional School District deliberative session earlier this month, an attempt to focus the rising property taxes on local decisions by proposing a spending cap which lawmakers enabled just last session, instead the attention was turned to the state’s minuscule aid compared to all but one or no other states in the country.
At some point in this legislative session, you can expect to see the Supreme Court rulings released.
The Rand ruling concerns the Statewide Education Property Tax and how it is administered could be addressed fairly easily but will impact the most property wealthy communities in the state and everyone knows how the legislature looks out for the ones with the most.
A ConVal ruling siding with the plaintiffs will require more political will and courage if lawmakers decide to address the inequities in the current education funding for both students and property taxpayers.
The House Education Funding Committee has bills that could upend the school funding system and others that tweak around the edges.
The committee heard one bill last week, House Bill 550, sponsored by the ranking Democrat on the committee Rep. David Luneau, D-Hopkinton, which would set the state per-pupil adequacy aid at $7,356 for next school, up from about $4,200.
The bill also adds various “necessary specific resource elements” needed for an adequate education outlined in Judge David Ruoff’s decision siding with the plaintiffs that include some things that are currently not in the adequate education definition in law, like transportation and facilities operation and maintenance.
House Bill 651 would raise the base cost to the same figure and also increase state differential aid for special education, low-income and English-as-a-second-language students.
The fiscal note on House Bill 550 indicates the change would add about $500 million to the cost of state aid for education.
Another bill with House Republicans leaders Joe Sweeney, R-Salem, and Jason Osborne, R-Auburn, would raise the Statewide Education Property tax about $5 per $1,000 of equalized evaluation to bring the state aid to the $7,356 mark.
The bill would also cap school budgets to the past three-year average, and anything over that would require a two-thirds majority to pass.
The bill, House bill 675, really does not change where the money is coming from, it would continue to use property taxes to pay for about 71 percent of the cost of education, but would raise it in a more equitable way so that property wealthier communities would subsidize the property poor communities and restart the war between donor and receiver towns, but that may happen anyway if the Supreme Court upholds Judge Ruoff’s Rand decision.
A bill sponsored by Rep. Glenn Cordelli, R-Tuftonboro, would keep the current system in place allowing the property wealthier communities to retain their excess revenue and use it for other education costs and adds municipal services as acceptable uses as well.
Another bill would replace the SWEPT with “a local contribution,” which would be what the town paid for the SWEPT the last year of its existence or what the town’s adequacy amount is under the formula. The community would pay whichever is less.
The figures would then be used to determine additional state education aid. The bill has the effect of lowering property taxes for the poorer communities.
Several other bills would increase what the state pays in additional aid for special education services both in the current distribution formula and also by raising state aid to nearly $30,000 for each special education student, which is about what it costs for an average special education student.
Another bill would stop the practice of prorating catastrophic special education aid to schools and require the state to pay the full amount, a bone of contention with most school districts because Education Commissioner Frank Edelblut has not asked for additional money for a number of years, while costs have skyrocketed.
The money would come from the Education Trust Fund and not the general fund as it does now.
Other bills before the House Ways and Means Committee concern education funding as well.
Two bills sponsored by Rep. Tom Schamberg, D-Wilmot, would flip the formula for the business tax revenue split between the General Fund and the Education Trust Fund.
Currently 59 percent of the revenue collected under the business profits and business enterprise taxes goes into the general fund, and 41 percent into the Education Trust Fund.
Under Schamberg’s bills, 59 percent would go into the Education Trust Fund and 41 percent into the General Fund.
More importantly, Schamberg’s House Bill 503 would reinstate the Interest and Dividends Tax, and repeal recent reductions in the rates of the Business Profits Tax, from 7.5 percent to 8.5 percent, the Business Enterprise Tax, from .5 percent to .75 percent, and the Rooms and Meals Tax, from 8.5 percent to 9 percent and the additional revenue raised would go into the Education Trust Fund.
A rough estimate of what that would be annually would be about $300 million in the first year.
There are also bills that take a backdoor approach to education funding like House Bill 283, sponsored by Rep. Dan McGuire, R-Epsom.
The state has defined an adequate education by using the state’s minimum standards and the subject matters that must be taught.
While that makes it difficult to determine what the real cost of an adequate education is, whether it is $10,000 per student as the ConVal Superintendent testified in that case, the $7,356 Judge Ruoff set “as a conservative figure” or the state’s claim of $4,100.
McGuire’s bill would remove a number of the 11 required subject areas that need to be taught under law.
They are:(1) English/language arts and reading. (2) Mathematics. (3) Science. (4) Social studies, including civics, government, economics, geography, history, and Holocaust and genocide education. (5) Arts education, including music and visual arts. (6) World languages. (7) Health and wellness education, including a policy for violations of RSA 126-K:8, I(a). (8) Physical education. (9) Engineering and technologies including technology applications. (10) Personal finance literacy. (11) Computer science.
Under McGuire’s bill, all the specifics after social studies would be removed, as well as all of 5, 6, 9, 10 and 11.
That would leave only six subject areas with one now open ended. That should be able to reduce costs for public education.
And House Concurrent Resolution 11 would declare “the directives of the judicial branch in the Claremont cases that the legislative and executive branches define an ‘adequate education,’ adopt ‘standards of accountability,’ and ‘guarantee adequate funding’ of a public education are not binding on the legislative and executive branches.”
A number of the House Republican leadership are sponsoring the concurrent resolution, which would have the force of law if passed by the senate for this two-year term, but would likely be ruled unconstitutional by the courts because it would give both the Legislature and the Executive Branch more far reaching authority than the courts.
Well if you can’t get the three-fifths majority you need to pass a proposed constitutional amendment through the House and Senate, try a resolution that would only need a majority.
The legislature has never approved a proposed constitutional amendment to remove the courts from education issues, but tried many times and failed.
Education funding will certainly have a broad discussion before lawmakers this session, — this is just what the House has proposed — but whether they take any meaningful action remains to be seen.
Garry Rayno may be reached at garry.rayno@yahoo.com.Distant Dome by veteran journalist Garry Rayno explores a broader perspective on the State House and state happenings for InDepthNH.org. Over his three-decade career, Rayno covered the NH State House for the New Hampshire Union Leader and Foster’s Daily Democrat. During his career, his coverage spanned the news spectrum, from local planning, school and select boards, to national issues such as electric industry deregulation and Presidential primaries. Rayno lives with his wife Carolyn in New London.
New Hampshire
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem confirmed as U.S. Homeland Security secretary • New Hampshire Bulletin
South Dakota Republican Gov. Kristi Noem will be the nation’s next secretary of the Department of Homeland Security after the U.S. Senate confirmed her nomination Saturday.
The 53-year-old Noem, a former congresswoman, will lead one of the federal government’s largest departments, with 260,000 employees and a budget in excess of $100 billion. Its responsibilities include border protection, disaster response, cyber and airline security, and protecting dignitaries.
The bipartisan vote to confirm Noem was 59-34, with her fellow South Dakota Republicans, Majority Leader John Thune and Sen. Mike Rounds, casting two of the votes in favor.
Speaking against Noem’s confirmation on the Senate floor, Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Illinois, warned that the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants Noem could carry out on behalf of President Donald Trump will harm the nation’s economy. Among the industries most affected, Durbin said, could be one of vital importance to Noem’s home state: agriculture.
“In many instances, they will be removing the very workers that pick the crop,” Durbin said.
Speaking in favor of Noem, Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said the United States is a nation of immigrants, but “we’re also a nation based on the rule of law, and we have not seen that immigration law enforced over the last four years.”
“So I’m going to be voting for Governor Noem, because she’s committed to enforcing our immigration laws,” Grassley said.
SD’s lieutenant governor elevated
Noem ascends to the Homeland Security post after serving as South Dakota’s first female governor. She was serving her second four-year term after being reelected in 2022.
Noem resigned from that job Saturday and was succeeded by her lieutenant governor, Republican Larry Rhoden, who became the state’s 34th chief executive and will fill the remainder of Noem’s term through 2026. Rhoden will choose a new lieutenant governor, subject to confirmation by the South Dakota Legislature, which is in the midst of its annual lawmaking session. Rhoden’s office released a statement Saturday saying details on a ceremonial swearing-in will be announced soon.
Noem’s Saturday confirmation vote capped a rise into national prominence that began during the COVID-19 pandemic. Her decision as governor to avoid ordering widespread shutdowns in South Dakota caught Trump’s attention during his first term, and he accepted Noem’s invitation to a Fourth of July weekend fireworks display at Mount Rushmore in 2020. That helped cement a relationship Noem had begun with Trump while she served as a four-term member of the U.S. House from 2011 to 2019.
Noem was widely thought to be in consideration for Trump’s running mate last year, until her April book release abruptly ended that speculation.
The Guardian obtained an advance copy of the book, “No Going Back,” and revealed passages Noem wrote about fatally shooting a misbehaving hunting dog and an unruly goat. The Dakota Scout, a South Dakota media outlet, challenged Noem’s claim in the book that she had met North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, and she retracted it.
Noem faced withering scrutiny during a national book tour and became the butt of jokes on late-night television. Yet, less than three months later, she had a prime speaking slot during the Republican National Convention. Shortly after Trump’s election win in November, he announced Noem as his pick to lead Homeland Security.
Noem’s role in border issues
While serving as governor, Noem sent National Guard troops multiple times to assist Texas in securing its border with Mexico, and called a joint session of the Legislature to deliver a speech about the border. In her new role as Homeland Security secretary, Noem will be pivotal in carrying out Trump’s immigration crackdown.
Noem appeared before the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs last week for her confirmation hearing. She said “border security must remain a top priority.”
“As a nation, we have the right and the responsibility to secure our borders against those who would do us harm, and we must create a fair and a lawful immigration system that is efficient and is effective and that reflects our values,” Noem said.
Trump kick-started his immigration plan shortly after he took office Monday.
In part of a barrage of executive orders this week, Trump moved to end birthright citizenship in the United States. But on Thursday, a federal judge temporarily blocked the plan, which was met with a flurry of legal challenges.
Trump also declared a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border, and earlier this week, the Pentagon said it would immediately send 1,500 active duty troops to secure the area.
Noem is the fourth of Trump’s Cabinet nominees to earn Senate confirmation, after Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
States Newsroom’s D.C. Bureau contributed to this report.
This story was originally published by South Dakota Searchlight, which like the New Hampshire Bulletin is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity.
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