New Hampshire
Nikki Haley keeps one eye on Iowa as she seeks to win New Hampshire primary
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley faces a unique challenge in the final two weeks before the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses.
She must simultaneously woo Iowans who could give her an added boost above rival Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) while stumping in New Hampshire, where independent voters could help her defeat former President Donald Trump, the front-runner, in the state’s primary on Jan. 23.
TRUMP HOLDS FOX NEWS TOWN HALL TO COUNTER CNN IOWA DEBATE WITH DESANTIS AND HALEY
Unlike DeSantis and to a lesser extent Trump, Haley has not staked her 2024 campaign on winning the Iowa caucuses. She has instead placed a sizable emphasis on New Hampshire and her home state of South Carolina. But given Iowa’s outsize advantage in the primary, a strong showing there will be crucial in her bid to replace DeSantis as the only viable alternative candidate to Trump.
The Florida governor has gone all in for Iowa, campaigning in all 99 counties and positioning himself for an outright win or a strong second-place finish behind Trump. Haley’s campaign and allies are covertly hoping a second-place finish in Iowa would steal momentum away from DeSantis ahead of the New Hampshire primary, where Haley is hoping for a second-place finish or better as well.
“I think the expectations for Haley in Iowa are appropriately less, but if she can overperform there, then I think she’s got, I think, a strong team waiting for her in New Hampshire led by the most popular Republican in the state,” said Jim Merrill, a seasoned New Hampshire GOP strategist, of Haley and the support of Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH). “And then she’s going to go to her home state in South Carolina. So it feels like a pretty shrewd strategy that they’re executing here with the final two weeks.”
“It’s tougher to organize in Iowa because it’s harder to find the caucus people … and it’s heavily dominated by evangelical Christians,” said Linda Fowler, a political scientist at Dartmouth University. “So with that context, I think New Hampshire makes sense for her. Plus, she has an enthusiastic governor who’s stumping for her.”
The former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor has barnstormed the Granite State with Sununu since she earned his backing last month. Yet Haley hasn’t quite abandoned Iowa and even plans to bring Sununu with her to campaign in Des Moines on Friday. She finished the final days of 2023 in the Hawkeye State and will face off against DeSantis during a CNN debate in Iowa on Jan. 10. (Trump is skipping the debate for a Fox News town hall at the same time.)
“Nikki isn’t taking any voter for granted. She’s traveling across Iowa, answering every question and shaking every hand. We’re fighting for every inch,” said Olivia Perez-Cubas, Haley’s spokeswoman.
There is some historical precedence that Haley’s gamble could pay off. The late Arizona Sen. John McCain in his 2000 presidential run mostly ignored Iowa and went on to beat George W. Bush in New Hampshire but lost the South Carolina primary. He would ultimately lose the nomination to Bush. But during his 2008 presidential run, McCain again bypassed Iowa and won the New Hampshire primary and the South Carolina primary before eventually becoming the GOP nominee.
Haley’s allies aren’t wasting any funds in helping her replicate McCain’s 2008 strategy.
SFA Fund, the super PAC backing Haley’s campaign, outspent all other groups in 2023 at $42 million, according to the ad tracking company AdImpact. That’s roughly $2 million more than DeSantis’s super PAC, Never Back Down, spent in 2023 at $40.2 million. Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., spent $34.4 million.
SFA Fund is the top spending advertiser of ’23.
Andy Beshear is the top spending candidate. Despite the #MDSen primary being in May 2024, David Trone was the 3rd highest-spending candidate. Tim Scott, who dropped out last month, is the highest-spending Republican candidate. pic.twitter.com/DSnbyLQYOB
— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) December 29, 2023
Americans for Prosperity, the billionaire Koch family-backed group, is spending $70 million to boost Haley in Iowa. “We’re just now starting to see the money, and it could make a difference,” Fowler said of Americans for Prosperity’s efforts to help Haley.
The DeSantis campaign slammed both Haley and Trump and their supporters for spending more than $38.4 million in negative ad spending against the governor, the most out of all the 2024 candidates.
“And despite her team’s best efforts to keep expectations low for Haley in the Hawkeye State, the numbers don’t lie,” wrote Andrew Romeo, DeSantis’s campaign spokesman, in an email Tuesday. “The Wall Street Journal’s John McCormick noted yesterday how Haley and the super PAC supporting her will combine to drastically outspend the competition down the stretch in Iowa.”
Richard Arenberg, senior fellow in international and public affairs and visiting political science professor at Brown University, told the Washington Examiner that a respectable finish in Iowa will help Haley as she prepares to battle against Trump in New Hampshire, a state that will be decided by independents who make up the majority of voters.
But a recent flap-up over the origin of the Civil War could distract from Haley’s efforts. Haley caused a stir last week when she didn’t mention slavery as the cause of the war during a town hall event in New Hampshire. She cleaned up her comments in the aftermath of the backlash.
“I think that had a kind of chilling effect on the enthusiasm of some independents that maybe she could energize to come into the Republican primary and vote for her,” Arenberg said. “But a surprising second place in Iowa could maybe warm that up again.”
Scott Huffmon, a political scientist and the founder of the Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at Winthrop University, claimed the controversy wouldn’t change her performance in Iowa. It “could move the odd New Hampshire independent,” but it would have “no impact on South Carolina.”
“And, despite her promise to the Sons of Confederate Veterans to not remove the Confederate flag from the statehouse when she first ran for governor, she publicly called for it to come down after the Mother Emanuel massacre, so that inoculates her somewhat,” he added referencing the 2015 murders of nine African American members of Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston, South Carolina.
Still, Haley must face the gargantuan task of somehow beating Trump in New Hampshire, where he polls at 46.3%, according to the RealClearPolitics average of the Granite State, and Haley polls at 24.8%.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
“Trump is still king of the hill in New Hampshire. No question about it. His support has been pretty static. It hasn’t really moved up and hasn’t really moved down,” said Merrill. “Haley has accomplished, I think, half of the battle, which is getting yourself out of the scrum of all the other candidates, whether current candidates or those that have withdrawn like [former Vice President Mike] Pence or [Sen. Tim] Scott [R-SC] to position herself as the No. 2.”
The other half of the battle, Merrill added, is converting undecided voters and encouraging other people to consider voting due to the state’s same-day registration law. “I’m sure the Haley campaign has worked hard to identify people who aren’t currently registered but who could choose to do so Election Day and turn them out,” he said.
New Hampshire
Let’s Talk Nature: The Value of Conserved Land
Join us for a community conversation exploring how land conservation supports thriving communities, healthy ecosystems, and local economies. Recent research from Maine highlights the growing economic value of conserved lands — from supporting recreation, forestry, agriculture, and tourism to protecting clean water, storing carbon, and strengthening climate resilience. The findings reveal something important: protecting natural landscapes is not only good for the environment, but also for the people and communities that depend on them.
Together, we’ll explore what this research means both regionally and here at home. How do conserved lands shape our quality of life, local economy, and sense of place? How can communities balance growth, conservation, and long-term sustainability? And what role can each of us play in protecting the landscapes that support both nature and people?
At each “Let’s Talk Nature” gathering, we share a short article in advance and come together for an informal, welcoming discussion. Each session stands on its own, and everyone is welcome. No expertise needed. Bring your curiosity and a willingness to listen and share. Drinks and cookies provided.
Read this session’s article: Conserved Land in Maine has Growing Economic Power
Grey Rocks Conservation Center
10:30 AM – 11:30 AM on Wed, 1 Jul 2026
Event Supported By
Newfound Lake Region Association
603-744-8689
info@NewfoundLake.org
New Hampshire
High winds, heavy rains lead to scattered NH outages
High winds and widespread rain contributed to more than 12,000 power outages Saturday as a low pressure system passes over New Hampshire.
A high wind advisory remains in effect for southeastern New Hampshire until midday.
There is a high surf advisory in effect for the Seacoast area until 8 p.m. Saturday, with large-breaking waves in the range of 6-9 feet, according to the National Weather Service.
The forecast warns of dangerous wintry winds for hikers and campers, with heavy wet snow likely at higher elevations and a foot of snow possible on summits in the White Mountains.
In southeastern New Hampshire, the wind advisory calls for steady winds of 15-25 mph, and potential wind gusts up to 50 mph.
Eversource reported over 10,000 outages as of 9:30 a.m. Unitil had about 1,400 outages at that time.
The Mount Washington Observatory has recorded winterlike weather over the past 24 hours. Weather observers there say over half a foot of snow and sleet has fallen at the summit.
New Hampshire
Opinion: The farm bill passed the House. Western New Hampshire got the bill. – Concord Monitor
In 1794, George Washington wrote that he knew of “no pursuit in which more zeal and important service can be rendered to any Country than by improving its agriculture.” Two hundred and thirty years later, the House just passed a farm bill that proves his successors stopped believing it.
Drive Route 12 through Walpole. Take Route 10 up through Haverhill. Cut across to Littleton, past the diner that has been feeding the town since 1930. The farms are there. Lush land that produces. People who work till their sweat and blood soak the ground they nurture. A region with every ingredient to feed itself.
What is not there is the processing facility that makes it worth raising the animal. The cold storage that keeps the crop from spoiling before it finds a buyer. The regional market that pays a price worth planting for. I want to believe Washington did not forget to build those things. Regardless, it built something else instead — a system that works beautifully for an operation running 10,000 acres in the Midwest and leaves the farmer on Route 12 doing the math at the kitchen table at midnight wondering if this is the last season.
And the 2026 Farm Bill just made that system more expensive to survive. Large commodity operations received a $54 billion subsidy increase over the next 10 years, with individual payment caps that can exceed $900,000 per operation. Is the farmer at your farmers market in position for this kind of payout?
The bill guarantees money, codified by law, for the people who need it least. Local food programs were reauthorized with zero mandatory funding, but plenty of empty words. They exist on paper and nowhere else. It means a farmer in Plainfield cannot count on them. It means Coos County, where one in seven people cannot reliably put food on the table, keeps waiting for help that has been promised and deferred so many times the promise itself has become an insult. Especially when supermarkets and superstores — just 15% of SNAP-accepting establishments — vacuum up nearly 74% of every food assistance dollar, while the local farm stand sees almost none of it.
And that is before the input costs.
Local farmers know this better than most. You buy fuel and fertilizer on global markets you have no vote in and no say over. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, causing record high prices for fertilizers globally, all because Russia is the world’s top exporter and suddenly it wasn’t exporting. And while that news cycle is long buried, remember that the Iran war has closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which a third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer travels. Diesel recently crossed $5 a gallon, which large trucks that move food and tractors rely on. Fertilizer went from $500 a ton to $850. One tractor cost $350 more than it did last year. You did not start either of those wars, yet you pay for both of them. And that is not even accounting for the sharp sting of tariffs on the inputs you depend on to plant next season.
Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies rose 55% in 2024. Then another 46% in 2025, and those numbers only count the farms that qualified for Chapter 12, which requires the majority of family income to come from farming. The ones that don’t qualify quietly disappear, not even a balance sheet to mark the years of struggle, labor and community these farmers gave. They just stop. Since 2018, this country has lost more than 158,000 farms, with every size category shrinking except operations over a million dollars in annual revenue. Those are still growing, and will do so as long as the policy is written to grow them. Another example of an unlevel playing field where the rich get richer.
To be clear about something: large-scale agriculture feeds a lot of people and nobody sat in a room and decided to destroy the small farm. But does intent matter when these are the results? The system produces what it was designed to produce. That is exactly the problem. It was not designed with you in mind, and after enough years of that, the results look intentional even when they are not.
I got involved locally here because I believe western New Hampshire has everything it needs to feed itself and then some. Four thousand farms, nearly half a million acres, led by a direct-sales culture that leads the entire country. What is missing is not the land or the people or the will. What is missing is a representative who walks into bill negotiations fighting for the farmer on Route 12 instead of the operation collecting a $900,000 subsidy check in a state they have never visited, and pretending it actually helps their constituents.
I have a specific plan for how existing federal dollars already flowing into this district get redirected toward processing, storage and regional market access that actually serves the farms here. No new appropriations. No new programs. A full breakdown is at livefreenh02.com/food-independence.
Daniel Webster, born thirty miles from where I am writing this, put it in the Capitol: “The farmers, therefore, are the founders of human civilization.” Washington and Webster were not just statesmen. They farmed. They understood what was at stake when the land stopped producing for the people who worked it. The authors of the 2026 farm bill apparently do not.
Robbie Mahrou is an independent candidate for U.S. Congress in New Hampshire’s Second District and a Walpole resident. She can be reached out robbie@livefreenh02.com.
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