Politics

In 2024 Elections, Most Races Were Over Before They Started

Published

1 year ago

January 26, 2025

In 2024 Elections, Most Races Were Over Before They Started

Competition is an endangered species in legislative elections.

A New York Times analysis of the nearly 6,000 congressional and state legislative elections in November shows just how few races were true races. Nearly all either were dominated by an incumbent or played out in a district drawn to favor one party overwhelmingly. The result was a blizzard of blowouts, even in a country that is narrowly divided on politics.

Just 8 percent of congressional races (36 of 435) and 7 percent of state legislative races (400 of 5,465) were decided by fewer than five percentage points, according to The Times’s analysis.

Consequences from the death of competition are readily apparent. Roughly 90 percent of races are now decided not by general-election voters in November but by the partisans who tend to vote in primaries months earlier. That favors candidates who appeal to ideological voters and lawmakers who are less likely to compromise. It exacerbates the polarization that has led to deadlock in Congress and in statehouses.

“Because of partisan and racial gerrymandering, you end up with these skewed results and legislative bodies that don’t necessarily reflect the political makeup of either the states or, writ large, the House of Representatives representing the political desires of the American people,” said Eric H. Holder Jr., the attorney general in the Obama administration who, as chair of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, has criticized the mapmaking process and at times even called out his own party’s redistricting practices.

In 2020, the last time that once-a-decade national exercise took place, both parties largely followed a similar strategy. Their maps typically made districts safer by stocking them with voters from one party, rather than breaking them up in an effort to pick up seats. Republicans, as the party in control of the process in more states, drew more of these slanted districts than Democrats.

Other factors have contributed to vanishing competition, including demographic shifts and “political sorting” — the tendency of like-minded citizens to live in the same community. But the role of redistricting is evident when zooming in on a single state.

Take, for example, Texas, where in 2020, before redistricting, 10 of 38 congressional races were decided by 10 percentage points or fewer. In 2024, just two races were. In five races last year, Democrats did not even run a candidate, ceding the seat to Republicans. One Democrat ran unopposed.

In state legislatures, where lawmakers are drawing maps for their own districts, safe seats abound.

There are 181 state legislative seats in Texas, with 31 senators and 150 representatives. In 2024, just four of those elections — three in the Statehouse and one in the State Senate — were decided by five points or fewer, according to The Times’s analysis.

“Legislatures draw maps in most places, and the reality is, a big concern for members who have to pass these bills is: ‘What happens to my district?’” said Michael Li, a senior counsel for the Democracy Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. “Very few members are willing to say, ‘Oh, gosh, I should have a more competitive district.’ So there is an inherent conflict of interest in the way that we draw districts.”

Adam Kincaid, the director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, said that making seats safer was always the goal.

“We made no bones about the fact that we’re going to shore up incumbents, and where we had opportunities to go on offense, we were going to do that,” Mr. Kincaid said. “So what that means is bringing a whole lot of Republican seats that were otherwise in jeopardy off the board.”

The Power of a Map

While it is easy to focus on the candidates, the money, the message or the economy, increasingly it is the maps that determine the outcome. In North Carolina, they may have decided control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Only one of the state’s 14 congressional districts was decided by fewer than five points. A Republican won the state’s next closest race — by 14 points.

In 2022, the State Supreme Court ordered a more competitive map, but it was tossed out after midterm elections shook up the balance of the court. The replacement, which was drawn by the Republican-led Legislature, gave three Democratic seats to the G.O.P. while making nearly every district safer for the party that held it.

It is impossible to know how elections held under the first map would have turned out. But, according to Justin Levitt, a redistricting law expert at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles, “had every seat stayed the same as in 2022, those three seats would have made the difference, and Democrats would have had a one-seat majority” in Congress.

Of course, North Carolina played a pivotal role because the margin in the House was so small. Gerrymanders nudge the political balance in every election, but the 2024 vote was the rare occasion in which they were decisive.

North Carolina’s role in the 2024 House elections follows a historic U.S. Supreme Court ruling in 2019 — involving partisan congressional maps in North Carolina — in which the court called partisan gerrymanders a political problem outside federal courts’ jurisdiction.

Even though those maps were “blatant examples of partisanship driving districting decisions,” the majority wrote, “state statutes and state constitutions can provide standards and guidance for state courts to apply.”

Almost unnoticed, other battles over slanted congressional maps that could affect the 2026 elections are crawling though state and federal courts — in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina (again), South Carolina, Texas and Utah.

Of all those lawsuits, the one most likely to affect the next House elections appears to be in Utah, where Salt Lake City, the state’s liberal hub, was carved into four districts to water down the impact of Democratic voters on House races.

Democrats appear likely to pick up a single House seat from that litigation, which faces a crucial court hearing on Friday.

Nationwide Decline

North Carolina is hardly an outlier.

In Illinois, a state dominated by Democrats, no congressional election was within a five-point margin, and just two were within 10 points. In Maryland, just one district was within a five-point margin.

Georgia did not have a single congressional district within a 10-point margin, out of 14 seats. The state’s closest race was the 13-point victory by Representative Sanford Bishop, a Democrat, in the Second Congressional District.

At the state legislative level, the numbers were even starker.

In Georgia, just five of the 236 state legislative seats, or 2 percent, were decided by five points or fewer, and more than half of the races were uncontested. In Florida, 10 of the 160 state legislative races were within a five-point margin.

With so few general elections to worry about, tribalism can take over in legislatures, leaving many elected officials to worry only about primary challenges, often from their party’s fringes. In the modern climate of political polarization, the lack of competitive districts not only removes an incentive to work with the other party but actively deters doing so.

“As competitive districts dwindle, so do incentives to compromise,” said Steve Israel, a former Democratic congressman from New York and the former chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “I remember campaigning on bipartisanship in a very moderate district in my first election in 2000. By the time I left in 2017, talking about crossing the aisle was like announcing a walk to my own firing squad.”

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Politics

Social media erupts over Mamdani’s silence after Brooklyn coffee shop bans Jewish congressman

Published

6 hours ago

June 23, 2026

Press Room

Social media erupts over Mamdani’s silence after Brooklyn coffee shop bans Jewish congressman

Socialists push progressive agenda in NYC primaries

Fox News national correspondent Bryan Llenas reports on the New York City primary, highlighting the influence of socialists. Candidates backed by Zohran Mamdani advocate for abolishing ICE and all deportations, even for convicted murderers.

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New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is facing swift backlash after declining to condemn a local coffee chain that told a Jewish congressman with pro-Israel views that he was not welcome.

Mamdani has remained silent after the Williamsburg, Brooklyn-based Poetica coffee shop posted — and later deleted — a message on social media telling Rep. Dan Goldman, D-N.Y., not to return after he stopped by the shop with his daughter Monday. The mayor declined to comment through a spokesman when contacted by The New York Times on Monday.

“Shameful,” Fox News Radio analyst Josh Kraushaar wrote on social media in response to a section of The Times story detailing that Mamdani declined to comment.

“Well folks, we’ve reached the stage of antisemitism where Jews are being publicly barred from businesses,” the CEO and co-founder of the antisemitism-focused nonprofit Boundless Israel said on X. “A coffee shop in Mamdani’s New York City told Jewish Congressman Dan Goldman he wasn’t welcome in their store.”

Zohran Mamdani announces new members of his team at the Brooklyn Public Library Greenpoint Branch in Brooklyn on Dec. 17, 2025. (Shawn Inglima/New York Daily News/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

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“The café is implementing Mamdani’s wishes,” journalist Melissa Braunstein said.

Fox News Digital reached out to Mamdani’s office for comment but did not immediately hear back.

In a since-deleted social media post, Poetica Coffee said it would have declined to serve Goldman had staff recognized him in the store. Goldman has notably declined to characterize Israel’s war in Gaza as a genocide and has received financial contributions from the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC, drawing criticism from some on the progressive left.

“See, here at Poetica, we don’t serve racists, fascists, homophobes, genocide enablers, or anyone in between,” the post continued. “Too bad we didn’t recognize you right away, or we would have turned you away. We issued you a refund—we don’t need your money (it’s probably coming from AIPAC anyways). Enjoy your loss on Tuesday. Don’t ever come to Poetica.”

The coffee chain has since deleted its Instagram page amid social media backlash.

Mamdani’s silence comes as he is working to unseat Goldman, despite the incumbent lawmaker being a leading Trump critic and embracing an array of leftist legislative proposals. Goldman notably did not endorse Mamdani’s mayoral campaign, citing concerns about how his administration would approach Jewish New Yorkers.

A Brooklyn, N.Y., coffee shop refunded a purchase made by Rep. Dan Goldman, D-N.Y., over the weekend over his support for Israel, saying the company doesn’t serve “genocide enablers.” (Getty Images; Google Maps)

The mayor publicly backed former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander to represent Goldman’s district, which spans Lower Manhattan and deep-blue, wealthy pockets of Brooklyn.

Democratic voters will decide whether to hand Goldman a third House term during the Empire State’s primary elections on Tuesday.

NY DEM WOULDN’T BACK MAMDANI FOR MAYOR — NOW MAMDANI IS BACKING HIS CHALLENGER

Since both men largely hold the same policy stances, the bruising primary battle has revolved around support for Israel — with Lander vowing to elevate the Palestinian cause if elected to the House.

Goldman has notably supported military aid to Israel following Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attacks and distanced himself from inflammatory rhetoric used by some on the left to criticize Israel.

Goldman offered a tempered response after the coffee chain effectively banned him from their storefronts.

“I’m sorry to see this post,” he said. “The barista could not have been nicer to my 7-year-old daughter and me—allowing her to use the bathroom even though we had not purchased anything. I made sure to buy a coffee in return for her kindness. I hope you at least make sure she gets the tip that she deserved.”

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani speaks in support of Brad Lander, Democratic candidate for Congress in New York’s 10th Congressional District, in Carroll Park in the Carroll Gardens neighborhood of Brooklyn on June 14, 2026. (Shuran Huang/For The Washington Post via Getty Images)

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Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon said Tuesday her office has opened an investigation into the matter.

“Federal law prohibits public accommodations such as coffee shops from discriminating against patrons based on their race, religion, or national origin,” Dhillon wrote. “These actions are not only reprehensible, they’re potentially illegal.”

Politics

Battle over single-use plastics erupts as 17 states move to block California law

Published

7 hours ago

June 23, 2026

Press Room

Battle over single-use plastics erupts as 17 states move to block California law

Attorneys general in seventeen states are suing California over its landmark single-use plastic law, which went into effect on June 1.

The lawsuit comes after a coalition of environmental groups sued the state over the same law this month, arguing the new final regulations create loopholes so large they gut the law.

The states are led by Nebraska Atty. Gen. Mike Hilgers, and the plaintiffs include the National Assn. of Wholesaler-Distributors. The coalition is asking the court to block enforcement of the law immediately.

“Once again, California is trying to enact a policy that negatively impacts the rest of the country,” said Hilgers in a news release. “If California goes unchecked, consumers will be forced to pay more for basic necessities.”

The other states in the coalition are Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah and West Virginia. The lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court of Eastern California in Sacramento on Monday.

State Senate Bill 54, the Plastic Pollution Prevention and Packaging Producer Responsibility Act, was signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2022. It was considered landmark legislation because it requires plastic and packaging companies to use less single-use plastic and ensure by 2032 that all food packaging is either recyclable or compostable.

Accumulating plastic waste is overwhelming waterways and oceans, sickening marine life and threatening human health.

The intent was not only to reduce single=use plastic, but also to put the onus and cost of dealing with it on packaging producers and manufacturers, not consumers and local governments. It was supposed to incentivize companies to consider the fate of their products and spur innovation in material redesign.

Plastic bottles of dishwashing liquid at Compton’s Market in Sacramento on June 17, 2022.

(Rich Pedroncelli/AP)

According to one state analysis, 2.9 million tons of single-use plastic and 171.4 billion single-use plastic components were sold, offered for sale or distributed during 2023 in California.

The single-use plastic law is what is known as a producer responsibility law. It emphasizes the idea of a “circular economy” in which the producer of a material must consider its fate — making sure it can be reused or recycled, or at least reduced.

In California, all producers of single-use packaging and plastic foodware (plates, knives, spoons, etc.) join a private entity known as a producer responsibility organization. Only one such organization has been approved in California: the Circular Action Alliance.

The states and the National Assn. of Wholesaler-Distributors say the plastic law discriminates against businesses selling into the state in two ways: by making them change or alter their plastic packaging and by conferring government authority upon the alliance, enabling a private entity to regulate and impose taxes and fees on businesses selling into California.

“California is not entitled to pronounce nationwide policies,” Eric Hoplin, president and chief executive of the wholesalers group, said in a statement. “Because the Act extends California’s regulatory reach far beyond its borders and brings within its sweep conduct wholly unconnected to California, the Act violates principles of federalism, the horizontal separation of powers, and due process.”

In addition, the attorneys general say the law suppresses their free speech by compelling companies to join and fund the speech of an organization with which they may disagree.

Hoplin and his organization filed a similar suit in Oregon in February. Oregon has a comparable single-use plastic law. A federal judge blocked enforcement of that law. A trial begins on July 13.

Heidi Sanborn, executive director and CEO of the National Stewardship Action Council, which advocates for the producer responsibility laws and a more circular economy, said in May that both SB 54 and the Oregon law are public policies that were “passed by legislatures and implemented with government oversight.”

She said the laws create clear and consistent rules so all producers contribute fairly to the cost of recycling and waste management.

Meanwhile, environmental groups are also unhappy.

On June 2, Oceana, the Natural Resources Defense Council and Californians Against Waste Foundation filed a lawsuit in San Francisco Superior Court.

They allege that the final regulations for the law, drafted and approved by the state’s waste agency, include exclusions for large categories of plastic packaging that companies could use indefinitely. In addition, they say, the regulations also allow for recycling technologies that pollute, such as chemical recycling, which the law as originally drafted forbids.

“While SB 54 remains a monumental achievement as the nation’s strongest single-use plastic reduction law, some of the final regulations implementing the statute undermine the law’s ambitions,” Christy Leavitt, Oceana’s senior campaign director, said in a statement.

Politics

DOJ investigating NYC coffee shop over hostile social post about pro-Israel politician

Published

17 hours ago

June 23, 2026

Press Room

DOJ investigating NYC coffee shop over hostile social post about pro-Israel politician

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The Department of Justice (DOJ) says it has opened an investigation into a New York City coffee shop after it blasted Rep. Dan Goldman, D-N.Y., in a social media post, saying it should not have served him, and he should never come back due to his support of Israel.

Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon said the DOJ has opened an investigation into the Poetica Coffee Shop in Brooklyn.

Dhillon says the department is aware of the “denial of service taunts” directed at Goldman and says federal law prohibits public accommodations, including coffee shops, from discriminating against patrons based on race, religion, or national origin. Dhillon says the alleged denial of service could violate federal anti-discrimination law and says enforcement action is possible.

In a now-deleted Facebook post, Poetica Coffee said it issued a refund to Goldman after learning that he had stopped by the location with his young daughter. The shop added that it would have simply turned Goldman away if staff had recognized him at the time.

SMOOTHIE KING FIRES EMPLOYEES WHO REFUSED TO SERVE CUSTOMERS OVER TRUMP SWEATSHIRT

Rep. Dan Goldman, D, N.Y., was criticized by Poetica, a left-leaning coffee shop in Brooklyn, which called scolded him over his support for Israel. (Dan Goldman)

“Hey Congressman Dan Goldman, we see that you stopped by our shop today for a coffee. Do you see how it doesn’t taste like genocide juice? Or are you still having a hard time telling the difference?” the post stated, referring to Goldman’s support for Israel and accusations that the Jewish state has committed genocide against Palestinians during the war in Gaza.

In a statement on social media, Goldman said he was disappointed by the shop’s remarks.

In response, the shop said it was the barista’s idea to refund Goldman’s purchase. The poster added that they will be voting against Goldman, who faces a Democratic primary challenge from former city Comptroller Brad Lander.

DEMOCRATIC REP FEARS PARTY TURNING ANTISEMITIC PROTESTERS INTO ‘MARTYRS’ IN BATTLE AGAINST TRUMP DEPORTATIONS

Fox News Digital has reached out to Goldman and the coffee shop, as well as the offices of New York State Attorney General Letitia James and Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and the city’s Department of Consumer and Worker Protection.

“No comment. We stand against genocide,” a staffer told the New York Post.

The shop’s social media post was quickly criticized online.

Mark Treyger, the CEO of the Jewish Community Relations Council of New York, said the incident warrants a review under city and state human rights laws.

MAMDANI IN THE HOT SEAT AFTER FIRST VETO DERAILS BIPARTISAN EFFORT TO COMBAT ANTISEMITISM: ‘DISAPPOINTED’

Poetica Coffee in Brooklyn, N.Y., criticized Rep. Dan Goldman, N.Y., over his support for Israel. (Dan Goldman)

“Turning a cup of coffee into a Jewish identity litmus test is an affront to the law, our values, and every New Yorker who rejects discrimination,” he wrote on X. “If an identifiable Jewish customer walks into a coffee shop wearing a kippah or Magen David, are they expected to first disclose their views on Middle East policy before being served?”

The incident appears to contradict the opening statement on Poetica Coffee’s website by its owner, Parviz Mukhamadkulov, an Uzbek immigrant who opened his first location in 2020.

“In practice, it looks like a café where the door doesn’t close on anyone, where tea gets poured before anyone asks who you are,” the website states. “The guest is sacred because the act of welcoming is how a community keeps itself intact.”

Rep. Dan Goldman, D-N.Y., stands outside the Delaney Hall Detention Center in Newark, New Jersey, on May 28, 2026. (Rashid Umar Abbasi for Fox News Digital.)

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The shop also claims on its site that “whoever walks through the door is treated with unconditional dignity.”

“Not as a customer. Not as a transaction. As someone who arrived and deserves to be welcomed,” the site reads.