New Hampshire
NH’s Ayotte vs. Craig is closest governor’s race in US.: Experts explain why it matters
DURHAM — The New Hampshire governor’s race is now the most competitive gubernatorial contest in the country, experts say, and this may be an asset to both Republican Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Joyce Craig.
Earlier this year, North Carolina and New Hampshire were seen as the top two competitive elections in the United States. But after a CNN report linked Republican North Carolina governor candidate Mark Robinson to multiple disturbing comments on a pornographic website, prompting most of his staff to resign, the formerly toss-up race has been moved to a likely Democratic victory, according to the Cook Political Report.
New Hampshire is now the only state gubernatorial race ranked a toss-up. According to recent polls from University of New Hampshire and Saint Anselm, the two candidates running for the office being vacated by Republican Gov. Chris Sununu are neck and neck.
The shake-up in the Tar Heel state may have opened up national funds that can help both Ayotte and Craig in New Hampshire. The Republican Governors Association current ad buy in North Carolina expired Tuesday, and multiple outlets reported the group has not planned any other placements.
“(Ayotte) will get help from the Republicans … because there really isn’t that much to invest in,” said UNH political science professor Dante Scala. “I mean, you look at North Carolina, maybe three, six months ago, that looked like a competitive race, but especially after last week, (it) sure doesn’t look that way anymore.”
The recent events may also free up more money from the Democratic Governors Association to help Craig in New Hampshire.
The first campaign finance filing deadline for the general election is Oct. 16.
Andrew Smith, the director of the UNH Survey Center, agreed the Republican Governors Association is likely not going to “want to bother” spending money on the North Carolina race anymore. However, Smith also wonders how independent the organization is from Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.
“I think the Trump people are going to want to take as much money as they can from any of the campaign organizations and use it on the presidential campaign,” he said.
Money is just part of the puzzle in this tight race: Each candidate has multiple strengths and weaknesses that will contribute to how they perform in November.
How the presidential election may affect the NH governor’s race
The “Trump factor”’ is a weakness for Ayotte in New Hampshire, where polls have shown the former president losing to Vice President Kamala Harris by as much as 11%.
To win, Ayotte will to convince voters to split their tickets and run ahead of Trump by about 5-7%, according to Scala, who said that is difficult for a non-incumbent. Even Sununu, who benefited from a name that runs deep in New Hampshire tradition, barely won during his first campaign for governor in 2016, running just enough ahead of Trump to win the open seat.
Ayotte’s rocky relationship with Trump may also play a negative role within her own party. The Republican Party in New Hampshire has many different factions, from Trump Republicans to free state libertarians to more mainstream traditional Republicans like Ayotte. There may be some voters who don’t like her because she isn’t close enough with Trump, while others may not want to vote for her to show their disdain for him.
However, a plus for Ayotte is Trump isn’t likely focus on New Hampshire as the presidential race no longer appears to be close in the state, meaning Ayotte can continue to keep her distance.
“Donald Trump is an anchor on all Republicans in the state. He’s not going to help them spread their message beyond that MAGA base, and could potentially hurt them if they get closely tied to Trump in the flow of the campaign,” Smith said. “So that split-ticket bogey is really going to be the key thing for her to be able to do to try to distinguish herself from Donald Trump without alienating those Republican Trump voters.”
While the Republican base is not as strongly in support of Ayotte as the Democratic base is for Craig currently, the polls revealed Ayotte appears to be more appealing to swing or independent voters, Scala said. That’s a positive sign for collecting the split ticket voters Ayotte needs. There’s also the possibility the full Republican base will coalesce around Ayotte as the election gets closer.
“If she’s going to pull it out, she’s going to have to really kind of channel her inner Sununu,” Smith said.
Conversely, Harris at the top of the ticket is a plus for Craig, whose positive polling numbers may be in part thanks to the vice president’s popularity in New Hampshire. The Democratic Party in New Hampshire has united around Harris, and by extension, Craig. Because of that, she might even be successful with a “generic Democratic campaign,” said Scala.
The NHDP has also tended to be better at getting voters out to the polls, Smith said. They have more money and organization than the Republican Party in New Hampshire, largely because of divides in the NHGOP like the Tea Party in the 2010s and Trump now.
How name recognition can be a boon – but other times a curse
One of Ayotte’s main strengths throughout this election has been her name ID. A former U.S. senator and New Hampshire attorney general, her strong name recognition was partially responsible for her dominant primary win over former state Senate President Chuck Morse. The experience of running those two statewide campaigns is also a strength for her in this election.
But her strong name ID may also be contributing to her negative favorability ratings: -5% according to the Saint Anselm poll and -17% according to UNH.
Craig, a former Manchester mayor, on the other hand, is less well known. But this can also be a strength as she hasn’t been caught up in as many “cross-party wars” as Ayotte, said Smith. Her favorability numbers are also positive — although Smith thinks that might change as the race gets closer and negative advertising ramps up.
The battle lines: Abortion and the city of Manchester
Craig’s biggest weakness, “fair or unfair,” Smith said, is the way Manchester is perceived to have been governed under her.
“You can see this has already been played out back in November last year,” said Smith, referring to last year’s mayoral race, when Republican Jay Ruais won over Craig’s endorsed successor. “That’s a harder problem for her to overcome, because that’s a policy issue. It’s not a personal issue.”
During the primary, Craig faced attacks about Manchester’s homelessness and drug issues from both sides of the aisle.
Craig will also have to address questions on taxes, crime, and immigration, all tried and true attacks Republicans use against Democrats.
Ayotte’s weakest issue is abortion, a consistent topic used by Democrats across the country. Both sides have put in a lot of effort trying to inform voters about how the governor’s race would affect abortion policy in New Hampshire: Ayotte even put out an ad saying she would not change New Hampshire’s current 24-week abortion law.
“It is something on which her voting history is to the right of what I would say is your average New Hampshire voter,” Scala said. As a senator, Ayotte supported a 20-week abortion ban as well as the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
More: Craig would give NH education chief Frank Edelblut the boot. Ayotte backs his policies.
The question for Scala, though, is if Democrats will open another line of attack against Ayotte.
“Abortion is a problem for Ayotte, but Democrats have already spent a lot of money going after Ayotte on abortion,” Scala said. “How much more is there to get out of that issue? And I think that’s a fair question.”
New Hampshire
New Hampshire woman chosen as President- elect Trump’s press secretary
Be the first to know
Get browser notifications for breaking news, live events, and exclusive reporting.
New Hampshire
Trip Report: Skiing Opening Day At New Hampshire's Largest Ski Area
New Hampshire – The Northeast’s ski season officially kicked off last week.
After a warm start to the month, a cold stretch last week across the Northeast allowed various ski areas to open up for the season or temporarily. This included Killington, Sunday River, Sommet Saint Sauveur, Belleayre, Gore, Whiteface, and Bretton Woods. Situated across the street from the famous Omni Mt. Washington Resort, the New Hampshire ski area opened on Saturday with two trails and two lifts operating.
I decided to head up to Bretton Woods to experience their opening day. I decided over Killington because while its my favorite ski resort in New England, it can be a crowded experience during those first couple of days.
Lift tickets at Bretton Woods this past weekend were $72. This is a bit pricey for opening day, but they offered a $10 discount if you brought a non-perishable food item as part of their “Say Goodbye to Hunger” Food Drive.
One of the lifts that was open was the Learning Center Quad. This lift services Rosebrook Meadow, a mellow beginner trail. It’s nice to get your sea legs back on this run, but it kind of gets boring for more tenured skiers and riders after a few turns.
The main trail that was open was Range View, which was serviced by the Zephyr High-Speed Quad. It has two small steep sections, but its relative mellowness makes it a beginner piste. The snow was soft and buttery. Crowds were minimal across the ski area, so it allowed for peace of mind.
As the photos show, there was a small snowpack. However, there wasn’t any indication of a thin base (e.g., grass and rocks) on the slopes.
Overall, I was impressed by the snow quality for opening day. These early-season days are typically icy endeavors, but this wasn’t close to that. The above-average temperatures helped with the snowpack’s quality, but the conditions also showed the strength of Bretton Woods’ snowmaking and grooming team.
Bretton Woods will be closed for the next several days. Conditions permitting, the New Hampshire ski area aims to reopen this weekend.
Image/Video Credits: Ian Wood, Bretton Woods
Related
New Hampshire
Security footage from inside NH Hospital shows speed of events in 2023 shooting
In the days and weeks after last November’s shooting inside New Hampshire Hospital, a lot of information came out about the gunman.
John Madore had a history of schizophrenia, and had previously been a patient at New Hampshire Hospital, a state-run psychiatric facility. Madore was transient, staying in hotels, but in regular contact with loved ones.
An investigation by the New Hampshire Attorney General’s office revealed that Madore obtained the pistol he used to kill Bradley Haas, a security guard stationed in the hospital lobby, from a licensed firearms dealer, even though he was prohibited from having a gun because of his past psychiatric commitments.
The attorney general’s report, released in August, also outlined Madore’s whereabouts that day, before he pulled a rented U-Haul loaded with an additional gun and ammunition into the parking lot of the hospital. The investigatory report included still images and a detailed timeline, but the state declined to release any video footage, despite its longstanding practice of doing so at the conclusion of its investigations into officer-involved shootings.
Security improvements remain a work in progress, one year after NH Hospital shooting
NHPR recently obtained five videos from the state, with angles from both inside and outside the hospital lobby, including a birds eye view that shows the main entrance, security desk and most of the lobby. Portions of the video are redacted or blurred; the state said that decision was made to protect the privacy interests of the families involved.
We sought the footage, through a Right to Know request, with two main goals: To better understand what happened that day and see what, if anything, could have been done differently. And second, to try to understand what changes could be made to improve security.
Here’s what we learned.
What the videos show
The main video from inside the lobby is approximately 30 minutes in length.
Jeff Czarnec, one of two experts NHPR asked to review the footage, served 23 years in law enforcement in Manchester, and now teaches criminal justice at Southern New Hampshire University.
He described the layout of the lobby as appealing and bright, which is important for a psychiatric facility, but that the metal detectors near the entrance could be easily skirted.
“Those are great to have in place,” said Czarnec. “But they’re not necessarily a deterrent to someone who’s looking to do harm.”
And that’s clearly what Madore was looking to do.
NH gun reform failed after hospital shooting. Advocates will try again in 2025.
The video shows him walking from the parking lot dressed in black pants, a flannel shirt and a vest. He moves quickly. As soon as he enters the lobby through the sliding glass doors, he reaches his right hand into his right pocket without breaking stride, and pulls out a gun.
“He just comes right in, and he was fully prepared. I don’t think he even had two feet inside when he started shooting,” Czarnec said.
The video shows Bradley Haas, the security guard, standing at a table next to the metal detector, looking at his phone. He barely has time to lift his head before he’s shot.
“A matter of seconds. There’s no prep, there’s no warning,” Czarnec said.
Haas was a 28-year veteran of the Franklin Police force, rising to the rank of chief. Since retiring from that position, he had been working as a security guard at New Hampshire Hospital for more than three years.
There were questions afterwards about why someone in that position — with his level of experience — wasn’t armed. Attorney General John Formella was asked about this by reporters the day after the shooting, and said that “it wouldn’t be typical for that position to be armed, working the security in the front lobby.”
During the legislative session this year, a bipartisan bill sought to close a perceived gap in the background check reporting system that Madore took advantage of to buy the gun.
Republican state Rep. J.R. Hoell, speaking on the House floor, said the problem wasn’t state gun laws, but instead that Haas wasn’t carrying a gun that day, to protect himself and others.
“So why was the person manning the security booth, manning the metal detector, not carrying a personal firearm that day?” Hoell asked.
There’s no consensus nationally about whether armed security guards are appropriate for acute psychiatric facilities. But what this video from last November makes clear is that having a gun may not have saved Bradley Haas that day.
“Even if he’d been armed, there aren’t many measures you could take that would have prevented what we saw [that day],” said Brian Higgins, who teaches at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, who also reviewed the hospital security footage at NHPR’s request. “It’s almost as if he didn’t have a chance.”
A state trooper confronts the gunman
After Madore shoots Haas, he walks around the lobby firing at bullet proof windows, though that section of the video has been redacted. The attorney general describes in its report that Madore ultimately fires again at Haas while he’s on the ground.
The next set of doors into the hospital are locked, however. Madore is essentially blocked from getting any further into the building.
Approximately 22 seconds after Madore fired his first shot, state trooper Nathan Sleight can be seen on the right side of the frame. He cracks open the door to an office connected to the lobby, where he had been positioned when the gunfire broke out.
Madore sees him, but continues trying to reload his gun. According to the report, Sleight ordered Madore to drop the weapon, but there is no audio footage from the lobby.
Sleight then opens fire from a protected position.
“The trooper there is doing all the right things by virtue of training: conceal and cover,” said Czarnec.
Madore drops to the ground, wounded, leaning up against a wall. He keeps moving his hands, though, trying to reload.
Sleight fires a second time: The muzzle flashes in rapid succession.
“He then shoots again to make sure that that threat is over,” Higgins said. “So I don’t have an issue with that at all. As a matter of fact, that’s good tactics.”
In total, Sleight fired 11 shots, emptying his magazine. The attorney general would later rule he was justified in his use of force; both experts we asked to review this footage agreed with that conclusion.
Just seconds after Madore is shot, the glass sliding doors leading out onto the sidewalk open again. A man wanders into the lobby. The report would later identify this person as a patient of the hospital. He can be seen walking over to Madore, and then to Haas. Sleight quickly ushers him outside.
In the video, Sleight runs to his cruiser parked out front to grab more ammunition; then he runs out of the lobby a second time to grab his bullet proof vest.
Within minutes, Concord police officers and more state troopers are on scene.
They provide cover while Haas is pulled bleeding from the lobby, and transported to nearby Concord Hospital, where he later dies.
Madore is dead at the scene.
A resilient staff remembers a colleague
New Hampshire Hospital had a patient count of 153 the day of the shooting. There were dozens of doctors, nurses, and other staff in the building. In the five minutes before the shooting, 13 people passed through the hospital’s lobby, according to the footage NHPR reviewed.
By pure chance, the lobby was empty — except for the security guard — when Madore entered.
“It is really a great thing that, despite the tragedy, the event was contained in this area and it really could have been far worse than it was,” Ellen Lapointe, New Hampshire Hospital’s CEO, recently said while giving a tour of the lobby.
In the aftermath of the shooting, there were changes made to how staff and visitors enter the building. For instance, the glass sliding doors from the outside no longer open automatically into the lobby.
This will slow down, in theory, anyone looking to do harm.
Everyone now needs a badge or has to check-in to enter. There is also now an armed law enforcement officer positioned in the lobby during visitor hours.
Next January, a major construction project that was already in the works will completely overhaul the entry and traffic flow.
But for now, this space is the main in-and-out point for staff.
Every day, they’re walking right past where their colleague Bradley Haas was killed.
Lapointe says it’s been a hard year.
“There’s been a tremendous amount of resiliency of the staff and a really great focus on patient care, as well as honoring Brad’s memory and really remembering him, for the positive, kind, helpful gentleman that he was,” said Lapointe. “And trying to not focus on the tragedies that occurred here.”
-
Business1 week ago
Ref needs glasses? Not anymore. Lasik company offers free procedures for referees
-
News1 week ago
Herbert Smith Freehills to merge with US-based law firm Kramer Levin
-
Technology1 week ago
The next Nintendo Direct is all about Super Nintendo World’s Donkey Kong Country
-
Business6 days ago
Column: OpenAI just scored a huge victory in a copyright case … or did it?
-
Health6 days ago
Bird flu leaves teen in critical condition after country's first reported case
-
Business2 days ago
Column: Molly White's message for journalists going freelance — be ready for the pitfalls
-
Technology1 week ago
How a researcher hacked ChatGPT's memory to expose a major security flaw
-
Politics1 week ago
Editorial: Abortion was on ballots across the country in this election. The results are encouraging