New Hampshire
NH’s Ayotte vs. Craig is closest governor’s race in US.: Experts explain why it matters
DURHAM — The New Hampshire governor’s race is now the most competitive gubernatorial contest in the country, experts say, and this may be an asset to both Republican Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Joyce Craig.
Earlier this year, North Carolina and New Hampshire were seen as the top two competitive elections in the United States. But after a CNN report linked Republican North Carolina governor candidate Mark Robinson to multiple disturbing comments on a pornographic website, prompting most of his staff to resign, the formerly toss-up race has been moved to a likely Democratic victory, according to the Cook Political Report.
New Hampshire is now the only state gubernatorial race ranked a toss-up. According to recent polls from University of New Hampshire and Saint Anselm, the two candidates running for the office being vacated by Republican Gov. Chris Sununu are neck and neck.
The shake-up in the Tar Heel state may have opened up national funds that can help both Ayotte and Craig in New Hampshire. The Republican Governors Association current ad buy in North Carolina expired Tuesday, and multiple outlets reported the group has not planned any other placements.
“(Ayotte) will get help from the Republicans … because there really isn’t that much to invest in,” said UNH political science professor Dante Scala. “I mean, you look at North Carolina, maybe three, six months ago, that looked like a competitive race, but especially after last week, (it) sure doesn’t look that way anymore.”
The recent events may also free up more money from the Democratic Governors Association to help Craig in New Hampshire.
The first campaign finance filing deadline for the general election is Oct. 16.
Andrew Smith, the director of the UNH Survey Center, agreed the Republican Governors Association is likely not going to “want to bother” spending money on the North Carolina race anymore. However, Smith also wonders how independent the organization is from Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.
“I think the Trump people are going to want to take as much money as they can from any of the campaign organizations and use it on the presidential campaign,” he said.
Money is just part of the puzzle in this tight race: Each candidate has multiple strengths and weaknesses that will contribute to how they perform in November.
How the presidential election may affect the NH governor’s race
The “Trump factor”’ is a weakness for Ayotte in New Hampshire, where polls have shown the former president losing to Vice President Kamala Harris by as much as 11%.
To win, Ayotte will to convince voters to split their tickets and run ahead of Trump by about 5-7%, according to Scala, who said that is difficult for a non-incumbent. Even Sununu, who benefited from a name that runs deep in New Hampshire tradition, barely won during his first campaign for governor in 2016, running just enough ahead of Trump to win the open seat.
Ayotte’s rocky relationship with Trump may also play a negative role within her own party. The Republican Party in New Hampshire has many different factions, from Trump Republicans to free state libertarians to more mainstream traditional Republicans like Ayotte. There may be some voters who don’t like her because she isn’t close enough with Trump, while others may not want to vote for her to show their disdain for him.
However, a plus for Ayotte is Trump isn’t likely focus on New Hampshire as the presidential race no longer appears to be close in the state, meaning Ayotte can continue to keep her distance.
“Donald Trump is an anchor on all Republicans in the state. He’s not going to help them spread their message beyond that MAGA base, and could potentially hurt them if they get closely tied to Trump in the flow of the campaign,” Smith said. “So that split-ticket bogey is really going to be the key thing for her to be able to do to try to distinguish herself from Donald Trump without alienating those Republican Trump voters.”
While the Republican base is not as strongly in support of Ayotte as the Democratic base is for Craig currently, the polls revealed Ayotte appears to be more appealing to swing or independent voters, Scala said. That’s a positive sign for collecting the split ticket voters Ayotte needs. There’s also the possibility the full Republican base will coalesce around Ayotte as the election gets closer.
“If she’s going to pull it out, she’s going to have to really kind of channel her inner Sununu,” Smith said.
Conversely, Harris at the top of the ticket is a plus for Craig, whose positive polling numbers may be in part thanks to the vice president’s popularity in New Hampshire. The Democratic Party in New Hampshire has united around Harris, and by extension, Craig. Because of that, she might even be successful with a “generic Democratic campaign,” said Scala.
The NHDP has also tended to be better at getting voters out to the polls, Smith said. They have more money and organization than the Republican Party in New Hampshire, largely because of divides in the NHGOP like the Tea Party in the 2010s and Trump now.
How name recognition can be a boon – but other times a curse
One of Ayotte’s main strengths throughout this election has been her name ID. A former U.S. senator and New Hampshire attorney general, her strong name recognition was partially responsible for her dominant primary win over former state Senate President Chuck Morse. The experience of running those two statewide campaigns is also a strength for her in this election.
But her strong name ID may also be contributing to her negative favorability ratings: -5% according to the Saint Anselm poll and -17% according to UNH.
Craig, a former Manchester mayor, on the other hand, is less well known. But this can also be a strength as she hasn’t been caught up in as many “cross-party wars” as Ayotte, said Smith. Her favorability numbers are also positive — although Smith thinks that might change as the race gets closer and negative advertising ramps up.
The battle lines: Abortion and the city of Manchester
Craig’s biggest weakness, “fair or unfair,” Smith said, is the way Manchester is perceived to have been governed under her.
“You can see this has already been played out back in November last year,” said Smith, referring to last year’s mayoral race, when Republican Jay Ruais won over Craig’s endorsed successor. “That’s a harder problem for her to overcome, because that’s a policy issue. It’s not a personal issue.”
During the primary, Craig faced attacks about Manchester’s homelessness and drug issues from both sides of the aisle.
Craig will also have to address questions on taxes, crime, and immigration, all tried and true attacks Republicans use against Democrats.
Ayotte’s weakest issue is abortion, a consistent topic used by Democrats across the country. Both sides have put in a lot of effort trying to inform voters about how the governor’s race would affect abortion policy in New Hampshire: Ayotte even put out an ad saying she would not change New Hampshire’s current 24-week abortion law.
“It is something on which her voting history is to the right of what I would say is your average New Hampshire voter,” Scala said. As a senator, Ayotte supported a 20-week abortion ban as well as the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
More: Craig would give NH education chief Frank Edelblut the boot. Ayotte backs his policies.
The question for Scala, though, is if Democrats will open another line of attack against Ayotte.
“Abortion is a problem for Ayotte, but Democrats have already spent a lot of money going after Ayotte on abortion,” Scala said. “How much more is there to get out of that issue? And I think that’s a fair question.”
New Hampshire
Hillary Clinton to return to New Hampshire | Fox News Video
Hillary Clinton is set to return to New Hampshire for a Democratic Party fundraiser while a progressive leader criticizes the party for being ‘tone-deaf’ by inviting her.
Hillary Clinton is returning to New Hampshire next month to headline the state’s Democratic Party’s annual spring fundraising dinner. A progressive leader criticizes the party as ‘tone-deaf’ for inviting Clinton, stating she’s ‘yesterday’s news.’ Fox News contributor Joe Concha weighs in on Clinton’s perceived comeback tour and discusses President Trump’s recent remarks about John F. Kennedy Jr.’s political ambitions.
New Hampshire
NH lawmakers approve bill that would make judges’ job evaluations public
A bill that would add elements to judicial performance evaluations for all state judges and make those evaluation reports public, cleared the New Hampshire House along party lines Thursday.
The bill’s backers, including Rep. Bob Lynn of Windham, former Chief Justice of New Hampshire Supreme Court, promoted the new requirements as a way to “invigorate” judicial performance, and said fully disclosing the reports is crucial.
“I have to emphasize this provision in the bill as well as the other provisions of the bill were adopted in consultation with the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court,” Lynn said
Under the bill, which was written with input from Supreme Court Chief Justice Gordon MacDonald, all judges – including part-time judges and retired judges who sometimes hear cases – would undergo evaluation at least every three years. Evaluations would include courtroom observations and analyses of how efficiently they process cases. Right now, judicial performance reviews remain confidential unless a judge receives two consecutive subpar evaluations.
The proposal comes at a time of tension between the judicial branch and lawmakers, spurred by recent court rulings finding the state isn’t meeting school funding obligations, and by judicial branch spending and management practices.
Democrats who criticized the new judicial evaluation bill say it goes too far and that the legislature should resist the urge to meddle in court operations.
“Many of us have been frustrated by recent activities coming out of the judicial branch – this is probably a bipartisan sentiment,” said Rep. Mark Paige of Exeter. “But to the extent that this bill appeals as a means to scratch your judicial frustration itch, consider other available remedies.”
Democrats also argued that making judicial reviews public could pose safety risks in an era of increased political violence including against judges.
“Publication would do real harm, inviting harassment of judges as violent threats against U.S judges have surged 327 percent since last year,” said Rep. Catherine Rombeau of Bedford, citing research from the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism.
But Republicans disputed such arguments, and said public reviews are also one of the few tools lawmakers have to make sure judges are performing their duties effectively.
“Judges are appointed once and serve until the age of 70,” said Rep. Ken Weyler of Kingston.
“All employees, including judges, benefit from constructive evaluation.”
New Hampshire
AI posts, selfies, and dank memes: The very online politics of NH’s Joe Sweeney
The New Hampshire State House, where tradition often reigns supreme, is scarcely more technologically savvy than a couple of still cameras streaming hearings to YouTube.
But like a lot of places these days, political power — and attention — there is increasingly shaped by what’s happening online.
And while plenty of New Hampshire lawmakers maintain busy Facebook feeds and X accounts, perhaps no public official better exemplifies the high speed, high volume, digital-ready approach to politics than Republican Rep. Joe Sweeney.
As the House’s deputy majority leader, Sweeney’s job is to make sure fellow Republicans show up in Concord and support caucus priorities. In many ways, it’s about as old-fashioned as political work gets in 2026. And to see Sweeney in action is to observe a politician who still embraces plenty of his party’s traditional priorities.
“Let the voters see that we oppose income taxes now and forever,” Sweeney proclaimed from the House floor earlier this month.
But Sweeney didn’t stop at merely pledging to oppose income taxes inside the walls of the State House. Soon after, he also posted the video of himself doing so to social media. Sweeney isn’t the first — or only — state politician bent on cultivating an online presence. But his position of power in the Republican Party means he is well-positioned to amplify what he chooses. It could be AI-generated graphics promoting nuclear power, photoshopped images supporting ICE, or Sweeney himself talking straight into a camera.
According to Sweeney, to succeed on social media in politics, it’s best to keep messages short, sharp — and sometimes trollish.
“It’s kind of this perverse incentive to present that sort of profile online, because that’s what’s going to get people engaged,” Sweeney said in an interview last week.
Politics as personal
At 32, Sweeney came of age in politics and on the internet. He started earning paychecks for political work in 2012, on the campaign of former Congressman Charlie Bass. Sweeney was a University of New Hampshire student at the time, and won election to the New Hampshire House that same year. Back then, he courted voters on social media with an earnestness that seems far removed from the politics of 2026, welcoming voters of all stripes to reach out and support his candidacy.
“I am running as a Republican, but I promise to represent all of my Salem constituents when elected,” a baby-faced Sweeney said in a YouTube video from that race.
A lot has changed for Sweeney since then. He’s now a top Republican lawmaker in Concord, vice chair of Salem’s town council, and also operates Granite Solutions, a political advocacy and fundraising group.
According to filings with the state, Granite Solutions’ purpose is “Electing Fiscal Conservatives in New Hampshire.” It essentially operates as Sweeney’s personal PAC, raising money, running ads, pushing policies, and urging lawmakers to sign pledges.
As New Hampshire PACs go, Granite Solutions is not exactly flush with cash: It’s reported raising about $60,000 over the past few years. Notable receipts include a $10,000 donation from a trust connected to Joe Faro, the developer of Salem’s Tuscan Village; a contribution from Churchill Downs, which owns the casino at the Rockingham Park Mall; and a smattering of Concord lobbyists.
A state lawmaker running what amounts to a one-man political advocacy organization is unusual, to say the least. But Granite Solutions also serves to boost Sweeney’s personal brand.
Last week, after Sweeney debated tax policy on WMUR’s political talk show, he sent an email to the Granite Solutions’ mailing list, urging people to stream the debate and donate to Granite Solutions.
Sweeney says he sees the work of his personal political committee as an extension of his public service: “I view Granite Solutions as supporting the economic agenda of Republicans in the state.”
‘Until the voters don’t want me’
The GOP fiscal agenda — from tax cuts to eliminating red tape for development projects — is a steady focus for Sweeney.
On other political issues, his social media-forward approach can serve to capture attention, more than enact measurable change. When lawmakers debated higher education funding last year, Sweeney strenuously alleged that undocumented students were depriving eligible Granite Staters from admission to UNH. After university officials released data that undercut his claims, Sweeney moved on.
Last fall, Sweeney told reporters to expect him and other Republicans to target specific state judges for misconduct. But such plans never materialized.
There was also Sweeney’s push to impeach Democratic Executive Councilor Karen Liot Hill over her use of a state email account to assist a legal challenge to a voter registration law — even though the New Hampshire Attorney General had cleared Liot Hill of any wrongdoing. Just hours before a public hearing on Sweeney’s impeachment effort, he scuttled the bill without bothering to show up for the hearing.
To hear Sweeney tell it, when his political ideas lose traction, he’s willing to let them slide.
“Some things can start off with a lot of fire and passion and then as it goes through the system it just sort of dies out,” he said.
But as Sweeney’s shown in Concord, and as a town councilor, he can also push policies that others see as provocative or radical — or even theatrical. When Salem’s town council and budget committees were at odds over the town budget, Sweeney proposed eliminating the budget committee altogether.
“I thought it was the most ridiculous proposal I’ve ever heard. It was a bad idea, said Steve Goddu, a Republican who sits on Salem’s budget committee, and generally considers Sweeney a political ally. “It was a bad idea, and sometimes we make bad ideas and suggestions, and I think this was just his folly on this one.”
But not everybody who’s been on the receiving end of Sweeney’s politics, folly or otherwise, is as forgiving. Liot Hill says she had to waste time and money to prepare for potential impeachment proceedings that she always saw as frivolous, and believes Sweeney’s style of politics is destructive.
“There is a price to our politics when politics becomes more focused on spectacle than on substance and really it’s really the public that pays,” Liot Hill said.
Sweeney, for his part, says he sees himself pursuing his approach to politics — in real life and online — for the foreseeable future.
“I have an ability to create solutions for folks. I have an ability to sort of understand things and kind of communicate with people on it, Sweeney said. “I feel this responsibility to continue to be involved until the voters don’t want me to be involved anymore.”
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