Four out of five cities and towns in Massachusetts added residents between 2023 and 2024, with the state’s population rising 1.9% since 2020, according to new Census Bureau estimates, offering a counterpoint to fears of decline. 

While experts credit immigration for the growth, they caution it may be short-lived as federal policies grow more restrictive.

“When you look at statewide figures as longer term trends, immigration has been saving our butts,” said Peter Ciurczak, a senior research analyst at Boston Indicators. 

In 2024, according to a summary by UMass Amherst based on Census Bureau data, approximately 90,000 international immigrants arrived in Massachusetts from abroad, compared to roughly 27,500 domestic migrants who left Massachusetts. 

From July 1, 2023, to 2024, the state population increased by 69,603 people, representing an increase of just under 1%, the most significant rise in annual percentage the state has seen in over a decade. 

Top 10 Mass. Cities and Towns with Most Population Gain

The annual estimates of the resident population for cities and towns in Massachusetts from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2024. Data is from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Population growth is essential because it leads to increased federal appropriations for funding resources and greater representation in Congress. 

However, with new federal immigration policies slowing down border crossings, cutting research grants that sponsor international students, and even revoking student visas outright, experts say that the next round of numbers in the fall should come as no surprise if they decline. 

“It’s hard to say where we’re going to wind up,” said Ciurczak. “I think we’re in uncharted territory in terms of all of the potential impacts.” 

Mark Melnik, director of economic and public policy research at UMass Donahue Institute, agrees, saying, “Immigration drives so much of the story in Massachusetts.”

Following the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers expressed concerns that the state’s population was declining due to domestic outmigration, primarily among young adults, and a decrease in immigration resulting from COVID-19 restrictions. 

Foreign-born workers have driven nearly 80% of the state’s labor force growth since the 1990s.

So the increase in outmigration and slowdown in immigration was a “double whammy,” said Melnik. 

Top 10 Mass. Cities and Towns That Lost Population

The annual estimates of the resident population for cities and towns in Massachusetts from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2024. Data is from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The increase in population also comes with a caveat — some of the numbers may be skewed slightly due to the method the Census Bureau used to interpret the data. 

The Census Bureau made revisions in December to improve the representation of humanitarian migrants by incorporating additional data in proportion to where immigrants have historically settled. 

As a result, Massachusetts, a significant destination for immigrants, appeared to experience an increase in its total population. 

There was no surprise in seeing that places that tend to host a lot of immigrants, such as Boston, Cambridge, and gateway cities, also experienced an uptick in population relative to other parts of the state. 

But Melnik believes that once the numbers are revised, the total will decrease. 

Massachusetts has a demographic problem, Melnik said. It has a relatively low birth rate and is an aging state. It is also a highly educated state, with the highest proportion of the population holding a college degree in the nation. The state also has the highest female labor force participation rates. 

When all of this adds up, it means later family formations, smaller household sizes, and lower birth rates. 

Immigration is a key part of replenishing the population and the labor market, Melnik said. 

On a side note, demographic maps outlining the shift in populations by county in the state show that during the pandemic, people moved away from major cities into the western portions of the state and to the Cape and Islands. 

That trend has since reversed course, Melnik said, and is back to levels seen before the pandemic. 

Ciurczak said people move for opportunities. People are moving to Massachusetts to improve their lives, their families, and their economic situations. And Massachusetts has a lot going for it, especially in the knowledge economy and schools. 

Concerns over slowing or declining population growth are troublesome, he said. 

“It’s hard to say population growth isn’t beneficial generally, and … to our economy and our culture and to the diaspora of citizens who come here,” Ciurczak said. 

Beth Treffeisen is a general assignment reporter for Boston.com, focusing on local news, crime, and business in the New England region.