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Haley vs Trump: five things to watch in the New Hampshire primary

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Haley vs Trump: five things to watch in the New Hampshire primary

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Donald Trump dominated last week’s Iowa caucuses. Now he hopes to carry the momentum into Tuesday’s Republican primary vote in New Hampshire, the next — and potentially decisive — stage in the race for the party’s presidential nomination.

New Hampshire voters tend to be more centrist than the more conservative, evangelical Christian Republican voters in Iowa. Independent voters can also decide whether to vote in the Republican or Democratic primary in New Hampshire. This has raised Nikki Haley’s hopes that she could spring a surprise victory on Trump.

Up for grabs in the New Hampshire Republican primary are 22 delegate votes, awarded in proportion to Tuesday’s tally, for the party’s national convention in July — when 1,215 will be needed to win the official nomination. Trump’s win in Iowa on Monday has already handed him 20 votes.

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Meanwhile, the Democratic primary will be much less consequential for 2024, but could still tell us something about President Joe Biden’s popularity within his own party.

Here are five things to watch in New Hampshire’s primary polls on Tuesday.

Can Haley beat Trump?

Haley is betting it all on New Hampshire after a disappointing third-place finish in Iowa behind Trump and Florida governor Ron DeSantis. The former US ambassador to the UN is betting that a coalition of more centrist Republicans and independents will get behind her as an alternative to Trump — and that a victory in New Hampshire will give her momentum ahead of the race’s next primary contest, in her home state of South Carolina on February 24.

But Trump still has a loyal base in New Hampshire, and Haley will need to vastly over-perform opinion polls if she is going to be able to pull off a victory there. The latest FiveThirtyEight average shows Trump in a comfortable lead, at 48 per cent, with Haley trailing in second at 34 per cent, and Florida governor Ron DeSantis in a distant third place, at about 5 per cent.

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What will happen to DeSantis?

DeSantis put nearly all of his campaign’s time, money and energy into Iowa, and invested much less in New Hampshire. So it is little surprise that he is polling so poorly in the New England state.

DeSantis has held a handful of campaign events in New Hampshire in recent days, but now appears more focused on South Carolina, where the overwhelmingly conservative, Christian electorate looks more like Iowa — and should be more favourable to a candidate who has taken a hard line on abortion, trans rights and other cultural issues.

DeSantis has said he can beat Haley in her home state. But his campaign has been dogged with problems and it remains unclear whether he has the funds or polling momentum to keep running until the South Carolina contest in late February.

Will anybody drop out?

Haley and DeSantis both insist that they are in the race until at least Super Tuesday, on March 5, when more than a dozen states will hold Republican primaries.

But a weak performance in New Hampshire would inevitably bring pressure for them to drop out.

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Billionaire donor Ken Langone told the Financial Times last week he was prepared to give Haley “a nice sum of money” but may wait until after Tuesday’s primary ballot before making the “major gift”. “If she doesn’t get traction in New Hampshire, you don’t throw money down a rat hole,” he said.

Haley received another blow on Friday, when Tim Scott, the South Carolina lawmaker she appointed to the US Senate in 2013, threw his weight behind Trump, who enjoys almost 60 per cent backing among Republicans in the latest opinion polls in Haley’s home state.

What will independent voters do?

A plurality of the New Hampshire electorate is undeclared, or independent, and unaffiliated with either main political party. The Republican primary there on Tuesday will be an “open primary”, meaning registered Republicans and independents who decide to vote will be able to cast a ballot.

How many independent voters turn out — and who they vote for — may give an indication of the direction political winds are blowing heading into November’s general election.

Unlike Iowa, which has trended Republican in recent election cycles, New Hampshire is a swing state, and Republicans and Democrats will be poring over voter patterns on Tuesday for hints of how the parties might fare there in the autumn.

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What will happen in the Democratic primary?

The Democratic National Committee wanted to strip New Hampshire of its “first in the nation” status and hold the party’s first primary of the year in South Carolina, rather than New Hampshire. Local Democrats were not impressed.

The state pushed back and will nevertheless hold a primary on Tuesday, even though Joe Biden, the Democratic incumbent president and the party’s likely nominee, will not be on the ballot.

The Biden campaign has encouraged New Hampshire Democrats and independents to “write in” Biden — meaning, as it sounds, simply to write the president’s name on the ballot — given he faces a long-shot challenge from Dean Phillips, a Minnesota congressman who is running for the nomination and says his party needs a younger candidate.

The results in the primary are highly unlikely to trouble Biden’s official nomination at the party’s national convention in August. But the outcome on Tuesday might offer a barometer of his grassroots support in a critical swing state.

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Thunderstorms, heat and wind will hamper efforts to contain Colorado wildfires

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Thunderstorms, heat and wind will hamper efforts to contain Colorado wildfires

The Aspen Acres Fire burns on Friday in Rye, Colo.

Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images


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Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images

Thunderstorms with high winds on Sunday could hamper efforts to contain a massive wildfire that has scorched parts of southern Colorado.

The Aspen Acres Fire, which is burning south of Colorado Springs across Pueblo and Custer counties, has grown to more than 86,000 acres. It began nearly a week ago and is 13% contained, officials said on Sunday morning.

Authorities have ordered people to evacuate or to prepare to evacuate across counties including Custer, Pueblo, Huerfano and Fremont.

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Scattered showers and thunderstorms could hit south central and southwest Colorado on Sunday, according to the National Weather Service.

Officials and forecasters say the rain could be beneficial for firefighting but are concerned it could lead to road damage in burned areas and cause flash flooding.

“The main threats from storms will be gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph and lightning,” the NWS office in Pueblo said.

Red flag warnings and air quality alerts have also been issued across the state, with the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment on Sunday warning residents to limit time outdoors because of heavy smoke.

Other wildfires are burning in the state, including the Ferris Fire in southwest Colorado that has grown to more than 42,000 acres and is 7% contained as of Sunday afternoon. The Gold Mountain Fire, which is also in the southwest portion of the state, has grown to more than 25,000 acres and is 0% contained as of Sunday.

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A memorial service was held on Sunday for three firefighters who were killed battling wildfires on the Colorado-Utah border on June 27: Emily Barker, Sydney Watson and Nick Hutcherson.

The firefighters, along with two others, were involved in a “burnover incident,” which happens when firefighters are overtaken and have to shelter as best they can while a fire passes directly over them, according to the Department of Interior. Two firefighters survived and were treated for burns.

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis ordered flags to fly half-staff in honor of the deceased firefighters.

“These three brave heroes ran towards the flames, put themselves in harm’s way, and gave the ultimate sacrifice to protect Coloradans, our communities and our families,” Polis said in a social media post on Sunday.

Another fire across the border in southern Utah, the Babylon Fire, has grown to more than 90,000 acres and is O% contained as of Sunday afternoon. It is expected to be hot and dry through Monday, with very little humidity, officials said, making conditions challenging for containment.

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At least 25 people die in US as record heatwave scorches swaths of country

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At least 25 people die in US as record heatwave scorches swaths of country

At least about two dozen people have died amid the perilous climate crisis-driven heatwave that has scorched swaths of the US with record temperatures.

As a huge heat dome sits over the county’s eastern half, extreme heat gripped millions of people in the days leading up to the US’s semiquincentennial on Saturday – and beyond it. More than 20 states experienced have reported stifling temperatures more than 100F (38C), marring celebrations. And more than 140 million people remained under active heat alerts across the US on Sunday.

Officials in New Jersey believe the extreme heat was a factor in the deaths of 22 people across 10 counties there, mostly in central and northern parts of the state. Many of the individuals were found in homes with no air conditioning, outside their residences, on the street and in parked cars, according to officials.

The first of those deaths occurred on Thursday, and the ages of the deceased in question mostly range from their mid-30s to their 80s. Preliminary findings cause investigators to believe the deaths are heat-related, though the chief state medical examiner for New Jersey would later determine the exact cause of death for each.

“This is not a typical summer heatwave,” the New Jersey department of public health said in a statement. “This type of heat can quickly become life-threatening to humans and to animals of all ages.”

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The National Weather Service (NWS) has said cool air from the north in the coming days is going to lower some of the most extreme temperatures in the region, including New Jersey. The Fifa World Cup final is scheduled to be held in the New Jersey city of East Rutherford on 19 July.

Elsewhere, a heat-related death was reported in Cook county, Illinois, Natalia Derevyanny, a government spokesperson, told NBC News. The cause of that death was recorded as organic cardiovascular disease – with heat stress as a contributing factor.

Hinds county in Mississippi reported the death of 74-year-old Mitchell Ray Cooley due to heat exposure on Thursday, state officials said. Cooley had been reported missing, and his body was found the next day behind a gas station, the county coroner said in a statement.

People watch the Sail 250 parade of ships at Liberty State Park in Jersey City, New Jersey, on 4 July. Photograph: Adam Gray/Reuters

“Mr Cooley suffered from a medical condition that impaired his judgment,” the coroner’s office said. “Based on the investigative findings, scene examination, and subsequent evaluation, the cause of death has been determined to be weather-related heat exposure. At this time, there is no indication of foul play.”

Meanwhile, on 27 June, Martha Irene Van Egmond, 83, died in Bolton, Mississippi, after falling in her garden. When her husband, Rick, tried to help her up, he fell too. The couple were unable to get up and spent hours in the heat.

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Rick Van Egmond said he and his wife called out for help, and eventually two men from a nearby apartment complex came – but it was too late for Martha. She died surrounded by flowers, doing what she loved, he said to local news outlet WAPT.

Jeramiah Howard, Hinds county’s chief death investigator, attributed her death to the heat combined with her age, WAPT reported.

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A person cools off with water from an open fire hydrant during a heatwave on the West Side of Chicago, Illinois, on 2 July. Photograph: Octavio Jones/AFP/Getty Images

As Donald Trump spoke during rain-dampened celebrations in Washington DC on Saturday, emergency services there had treated 51 people with heat-related issues as of 8pm ET, with 12 taken to nearby hospitals, according to local emergency response officials.

Other events scheduled for Saturday – including the Independence Day parade in DC – were cancelled amid the blistering heat. Among other weather-related disruptions, Trump’s so-called Great American State Fair on the National Mall also temporarily closed down on Friday after reports that 44 visitors had been treated for heat-related illnesses.

The worst of the heat started moving out of the US’s north-east and midwest regions by Sunday, shifting farther south into the mid-Atlantic and south-eastern parts of the country.

But scientists warn that heatwaves with extreme temperatures are indications that the world must lower the greenhouse gas pollution driving the global climate crisis.

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The NWS is urging the public to avoid heat sickness by drinking plenty of fluids as well as staying out of the sun and in air-conditioned environments. Officials have also asked people to check on relatives and neighbors.

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Paul Pelosi in hit-and-run in California, car left with major damage, authorities say

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Paul Pelosi in hit-and-run in California, car left with major damage, authorities say

Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and her husband Paul arrive at the funeral services for Clive Davis at Central Synagogue in New York, Monday, June 29, 2026.

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LOS ANGELES — The husband of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was involved in a hit-and-run in California that left a parked car with “major” damage authorities said Saturday, and he could face misdemeanor charges.

Paul Pelosi was driving his brown convertible Friday in Yountville, a town in the heart of wine country, when he struck a legally parked car on the side of the road, briefly stopped and then drove away, the Napa County Sheriff’s Office said in a statement. No injuries were reported.

A witness saw the collision and called 911. Shortly afterward sheriff’s deputies found Pelosi with damage to the front of his car on a road roughly a quarter of a mile away. He reportedly told officers he knew he hit something but was not sure when or what caused the damage.

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Pelosi, 86, did not have any alcohol in his system, according to the statement. The sheriff’s office referred him to the Department of Motor Vehicles for a process to determine whether he may continue to drive — something that officials say is common for older drivers.

Pelosi was not arrested, and because no one was injured, the sheriff’s office recommended a misdemeanor charge for fleeing the scene of an accident.

A staffer for Nancy Pelosi did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

Paul Pelosi pleaded guilty in 2022 to misdemeanor charges of driving under the influence in Napa County and was sentenced to five days in jail and three years of probation. However, he served only two days in jail and received good conduct credit for two other days, leaving just one day to serve in a work program at the courthouse.

As part of his probation, Pelosi was required to attend a three-month drinking driver class and install an ignition interlock device, which forces drivers to provide a breath sample to prove sobriety before the engine will start. He also was ordered to pay about $5,000 in victim restitution for medical bills and lost wages, along with nearly $2,000 in fines.

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