Connect with us

Politics

California will play a big role in the fight for power in Congress. Tuesday’s primary sets the stage

Published

on

California will play a big role in the fight for power in Congress. Tuesday’s primary sets the stage

California’s decision to redraw its congressional map to flip as many as five House seats to Democrats in November is poised to play a big and potentially decisive role in the nation’s broader, bare-knuckle fight for control of Congress.

Tuesday’s primary races — where the top two candidates will advance to November runoffs — won’t determine which Republicans are ousted in most cases, but they will provide an important first look at voter sentiment and bring the fall’s most crucial head-to-head contests into focus.

“There will be some real cues and signals about what to expect,” said Christian Grose, a redistricting scholar and political science professor at USC. “We’re going to know how strong the Democrats’ chances are going to be based on who advances.”

As one example, Grose pointed to the redrawn 22nd Congressional District in the Central Valley, where incumbent Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) is facing challenges from moderate Assemblymember Jasmeet Kaur Bains (D-Delano) and progressive college professor Randy Villegas.

Grose said Bains is probably a stronger challenger than Villegas in a district that’s still a reach for Democrats — even if “either one could probably beat Valadao if 2026 is a big Democratic wave.”

Advertisement

Grose will also be closely watching the race between incumbent Reps. Young Kim (R-Anaheim Hills) and Ken Calvert (R-Corona) in the redrawn Congressional District 40, which covers a swath of inland Orange County and portions of San Bernardino and Riverside counties, including parts of Kim’s and Calvert’s current districts.

The district race wasn’t designed to deliver Democrats a seat, but will produce “one of the first casualties for Republicans from the new map” — months before other expected ousters — if Kim and Calvert don’t both advance.

The national picture

The redistricting war was prompted by President Trump’s unprecedented pressuring of Republican-controlled states to redraw their maps mid-decade for partisan advantage in order to retain control of Congress, given his sinking approval ratings and a history of midterm voters punishing the president’s party.

After Texas Republicans heeded Trump’s call to redraw five districts in their party’s favor, California Democrats responded with Proposition 50, a ballot measure passed by voters in November to sideline the state’s independent redistricting committee and allow Democrats to redraw five congressional districts in their favor.

The war ratcheted up — with more Republican states suddenly considering map changes — after a U.S. Supreme Court decision in April that weakened the 1965 Voting Rights Act and its long-standing protections for majority-Black districts in the South.

Advertisement

Republicans have now acted to redraw congressional maps in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Tennessee, with varying degrees of success, while a battle in Utah could add a single additional Democratic seat there. Attempts in other states have failed, including by the GOP in South Carolina and Democrats in Virginia.

Experts say the net result from the flurry of redistricting will probably be a gain of a handful or more seats for Republicans — but in a year when Democrats are expected to make gains more broadly, leaving control of the House up for grabs. California’s new map is “a huge deal” precisely because that math is so close, said David Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst for the independent, nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

“Democrats are modest favorites for House control based on the political environment, but also because of California,” Wasserman said in an interview with The Times. “Picking up these four or five seats is a prerequisite to Democrats getting the majority.”

California seats in play

California has 52 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, by far the most of any state. With their new map, California Democrats are hoping to increase their 43 House seats to 48. That would leave just four seats represented by members of the GOP despite Republicans accounting for a quarter of the state electorate.

But that outcome isn’t guaranteed.

Paul Mitchell, a Democratic redistricting expert who devised California’s new map, said the reconfigured congressional districts had to create a pathway for new Democrats to win additional seats without undermining incumbent Democrats’ reelection. And the result is a map with three pretty safe pickups for Democrats, and two districts that are “100% on the table, ready for Democrats to win,” but will nonetheless “require shoe-leather and grit.”

Advertisement

The redrawn congressional district boundaries enacted by Proposition 50 promise to shake up at least three seats, experts said.

Congressional District 1: Held by the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Richvale) for 13 years until his death in January, the district is currently rural and conservative, stretching from the Sacramento outskirts through Redding to the Oregon border and California’s northeastern corner. Under the state’s new congressional district map, it loses some of its rural reaches and picks up liberal coastal communities, and favors a Democrat such as state Sen. Mike McGuire, who is one of the leading candidates.

Congressional District 3: The seat is currently held by Rep. Kevin Kiley (I-Rocklin) and stretches from the Sacramento suburbs through Lake Tahoe and south along the Nevada border. Under the new map, it holds more tightly to the Sacramento suburbs, favoring a Democrat.

The changes were enough to convince an incumbent Democrat, Rep. Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove), to leave his current district — Congressional District 6, which includes the city of Sacramento and the suburbs of Roseville and Rocklin in Placer County — and run in District 3 instead.

Meanwhile, Kiley did the reverse. He quit the Republican Party, became an independent and announced he would be leaving District 3 and running instead in District 6 — the one Bera is leaving — against a slate of new Democratic challengers.

Congressional District 41. The seat is now held by Calvert, a 17-term incumbent, and currently stretches from Corona to the Coachella Valley. The new map made the district more liberal, losing voters in Riverside County and gaining them in Los Angeles County, and Calvert decided to run instead in Kim’s redrawn but still Republican-leaning Congressional District 40 that is just to the west.

The two toughest flips for Democrats, experts said, are Congressional District 22, Valadao’s heavily Latino district in the Central Valley, followed by Congressional District 48 in San Diego and Riverside counties, where Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Bonsall) decided to retire rather than run for reelection.

Valadao is viewed as especially vulnerable because of his recent support for Medicaid cuts, but he has proved resilient in the past. Meanwhile, his two leading Democratic challengers, Bains and Villegas, are in a bitter fight, with Bains receiving Democratic establishment support and Villegas winning endorsements from prominent progressives.

Advertisement

In Issa’s district, moderate Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond is running against several infighting Democrats, including San Diego Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert and former Obama labor official Ammar Campa-Najjar.

Not new, or over

Jeff Wice, a New York Law School professor who was involved in California redistricting efforts in 2010, said the state “has long played hardball politics on redistricting,” including when then-Rep. Phil Burton, a powerful San Francisco Democrat, bragged more than 40 years ago that the complex congressional boundaries he’d crafted for Democrats were his “contribution to modern art.”

But in five decades studying redistricting, Wice said he has never seen such “politically driven, partisan politics” as are occurring now across the nation, which he said have “no root in law, reason or fairness” — and are only likely to continue.

“This state-by-state war is far from over, and may continue all the way through 2030,” he said. “A lot of it depends on the outcome of this November’s election.”

Wasserman said the country has “entered an era of no-holds-barred redistricting,” and he also sees redistricting efforts continuing — including in California, where they would present a distinct threat to the state’s few remaining Republicans.

Advertisement

Michael Li, senior counsel in the Democracy Program at the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law, said California is a “big part of the story” this election cycle, thanks to Proposition 50. “Democrats in California proved to be very determined and resourceful and managed to get that done, and right now California is the big offset to Republican gerrymandering around the country,” he said.

But what will come of it all — in California and across the country — is still to be determined.

“When you’re gerrymandering, you’re making a bet that you know what the politics of the future will look like, and it’s hard to predict,” he said. “It’s a high-risk, high-reward venture.”

Advertisement

Politics

College sports sees pivotal moment as Senate looks to move legislation on NIL, transfers across goal line

Published

on

College sports sees pivotal moment as Senate looks to move legislation on NIL, transfers across goal line

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

Congress could determine the future of college sports.

Advertisement

Thursday was a seminal day as to whether Congress can either salvage – or potentially ruin – intercollegiate athletics. It’s a congressional Hail Mary as senators address name, image and likeness (NIL) deals for athletes, compensation packages and transfers between schools.  

“College sports is in crisis,” declared Senate Commerce Committee Chairman Ted Cruz, R-Texas.

“There’s a sense of urgency in that room you can feel it, right? You’ve got to do something rapidly,” said Sen. John Hickenlooper, D-Colo.

TED CRUZ, MARIA CANTWELL UNVEIL BIPARTISAN COLLEGE ATHLETICS BILL AMID NIL CHAOS, LAWSUITS, ‘LANE KIFFIN RULE’

Senate lawmakers advanced a bipartisan college sports bill that would create national NIL standards and limit athlete transfers. The measure now heads toward a full Senate debate. (Kevin Carter/Getty Images)

Advertisement

The Commerce Committee approved a bipartisan gameplan to fundamentally alter college sports. The full Senate plans to debate the bill in July. 

“We have put something on the table that’s going to bring more certainty and predictability to the system,” said Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., the top Democrat on the panel. 

Establishing a nationwide payout framework is a key aspect of the deal. Lawmakers know that inaction could mean that monied, major programs will simply outbid smaller schools. Perhaps even for a future NFL MVP.

“I’m worried that we’ll never see a Josh Allen again at the University of Wyoming,” said Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., referring to the Buffalo Bills standout quarterback. “It leaves those of us who don’t really have a donor base [to struggle to] pay for players of that caliber.”

The bill also restricts athletes to one transfer between schools during a five-year period without a penalty. 

Advertisement

“Now we have this unbelievable number of players that get in the (transfer) portal every year and we have nothing to control the agents,” said former Alabama head football coach Nick Saban to a Senate panel earlier this month.

UCLA QUARTERBACK ATTEMPTS TO EXPLOIT LOOPHOLE IN TRANSFER PORTAL WINDOW WITH UNIQUE TACTIC

 Lawmakers believe this plan will curb the constant roster chaos. 

Advocates of the legislation believe it protects student-athletes.

“It definitely makes sure that predatory contracting done by agents or universities or conferences or shill organizations, don’t get students stuck in binding arbitration,” said Cantwell.

Advertisement

Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., is the only former Division I college athlete in the Senate. He played tight end for Stanford’s football team. Booker opposes the bill.

SENS MARSHA BLACKBURN, MARIA CANTWELL HUSTLING TO PROTECT COLLEGE ATHLETES’ FINANCES IN MURKY NIL WORLD

Congress is weighing major changes to college athletics, including athlete compensation, transfers and NIL regulations amid growing concerns about competitive imbalance. (David Dee Delgado/Getty Images)

“I’ve seen decade after decade, how the NCAA has screwed athletes. And so we need to make sure there’s firm athletic protections and not trust the NCAA to do it,” said Booker. 

Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., is the only former Division I football head coach in the Senate. He led programs at Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas Tech and Cincinnati. He joins Booker in condemning the legislation.

Advertisement

“They’re trying to turn college sports into the same situation we got in with Obamacare,” said Tuberville on Fox News Radio. “We can’t get the federal government involved in college sports.”

During a floor speech, Tuberville argued that “Congress should not decide how much money student athletes can earn.”

Yet Tuberville conceded that “college sports is facing a five-alarm fire. It’s getting ready to be over with as we know it.”

That’s why Cruz believes Congress should intervene.

“If the alternative is do nothing and allow chaos to continue in college sports to be destroyed, I think that alternative is unacceptable,” said Cruz.

Advertisement

Congress struggles to do lots of things right. That’s why some observers doubt that Congress is a good substitute for the NCAA.

Matt Mackowiak is a former GOP Senate aide who’s written about Brendan Sorsby, his gambling scandal and the saga involving Texas Tech megabooster Cody Campbell. Big money lured Sorsby to the school for a hot minute. Mackowiak says the Cruz/Cantwell bill fails to prevent another Sorsby situation. But Mackowiak’s biggest concern is congressional willingness to undercut the NCAA.

“I don’t know why you need to create some new system and make it overly complicated. You have a governing body. They haven’t had a lot of teeth in their enforcement in recent years.”

Some of that is because super conferences like the Big Ten and SEC wield more power than the NCAA. Notably, neither of those conferences endorsed the Senate bill. But it was the NCAA which demanded congressional intervention. The NCAA has told lawmakers it can’t address NIL on its own and pushed for a national standard set by Capitol Hill.

But Booker isn’t enamored with the NCAA.

Advertisement

“The NCAA, which can’t be trusted, has shown decade after decade, (of) failing college athletes,” he said.

There’s concern the bill could undercut current sports broadcasters by diversifying the number of streamers and outlets carrying games. That could complicate viewing. Additional options aren’t necessarily good for fans if they struggle to find their games.

“Then the fans get hurt because all the content is behind a paywall,” said Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn. 

“I suspect everyone in this room has heard about frustrations from their constituents in trying to watch their favorite professional sports teams play. They are met with blackouts and paywalls,” said Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis.

The House of Representatives stumbled in two previous efforts to regulate college sports. The House Republican leadership had to yank completely different college sports regulation bills off the floor in December and this spring because they lacked the votes. So, now it’s the Senate’s turn to try.

Advertisement

There are lots of questions about whether the Senate, like the House, can command the votes for this bill. Moreover, what bandwidth does the Senate even have for serious legislating in July? The Senate is trying to figure out what’s next about the nomination of Jay Clayton to serve as director of national intelligence. The future of FISA Section 702 – the nation’s top program to fight terrorism – is up in the air after authorization expired a few weeks ago. And some Republicans are optimistic the Senate can advance a third “reconciliation package” to pay for the war in Iran, cut taxes and reduce fraud.

It would seem that those priorities might outweigh something on college sports.

REPORTER’S NOTEBOOK: HOUSE DEMS QUESTION SPORTS BILL TIMING AMID LANE KIFFIN CONTROVERSY

A Senate panel approved legislation supporters say would bring stability to college sports as critics warn it expands federal involvement. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

But as Cruz and Tuberville both say, the situation in college sports is dire. There’s worry that the SEC and/or Big Ten might form a mega conference. Or develop their own broadcast platforms for games. And there may be a lot more Brendan Sorsbys as gaming becomes more ubiquitous. 

Advertisement

None of this is going to get any better.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP 

The future of college sports is on the line. 

So, to fix it, the Senate might just give it the old college try.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Politics

Commentary: Federal probe of Newsom creates lots of smoke. Is there any fire?

Published

on

Commentary: Federal probe of Newsom creates lots of smoke. Is there any fire?

The U.S. Department of Justice — make that the U.S. Department of “Justice” — is sniffing around Gavin Newsom and his wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom.

This is widely seen as a throw-me-in-the-briar-patch gift from President Trump, coming as California’s governor edges ever closer toward a 2028 run for the White House. The presumed effort to cut down a political foe could instead boost Newsom’s chances of winning the Democratic nomination, or so it’s being suggested.

After all, look at how Trump’s verbal bludgeoning elevated former Rep. Adam Schiff. The House has typically been a dead end for lawmakers seeking statewide office in California. Today, the former Burbank congressman and Trump tormentor is a United States senator.

In truth, however, it’s far too early to say how the investigation of Newsom and his wife plays out politically, not least because it’s unclear whether there’s merit to the probe or if it’s merely a fruitless search-and-destroy mission by Trump’s Department of Retribution, Vengeance and Settling Old Scores

Beyond that, the first ballots of the 2028 campaign won’t be cast for roughly a year and a half. The Democratic National Convention, where the party will install its nominee, doesn’t begin for another 778 days.

Advertisement

Your friendly political columnist won’t resort to that hoariest of cliches about such-and-such duration being a lifetime in politics. But for some perspective, let’s go back 778 days.

President Joe Biden was running for reelection and about to challenge Trump to a pair of early debates. Trump was sequestered in a New York City courtroom being prosecuted on 34 felony counts.

A lot happened in the weeks and months that followed, including Biden’s self-immolation on the debate stage and Trump’s criminal conviction. A lot more will happen in the weeks and months to come. There’s no telling what. But it’s safe to say the fight for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination will not be decided by anything that’s taken place in June 2026.

Still, Newsom is once again sunning himself in the national spotlight and for that he has Trump to thank.

With his exquisitely tuned political antennae, the governor jumped out front of the president by announcing last week the feds were targeting him and his wife. (Naturally, Newsom’s revelation was accompanied by a rage-bait email — subject line: “Because I am thinking of running for president” — that denounced the “political witch hunt” and asked for money.)

Advertisement

“After calling for my arrest last year, Donald Trump directed his Department of Justice to investigate me,” Newsom said in a 4 ½-minute, direct-to-camera video that framed the investigation before prosecutors had the chance. “And just in the last week, I’ve learned his campaign has reached my own home: To get me, he’s coming after my wife, Jen.”

  • Share via

    Advertisement

Newsom and his wife both adamantly denied any wrongdoing and, of course, they must be presumed innocent until and unless proven otherwise.

Advertisement

But there was something a bit disingenuous about the governor’s chivalrous defense. Siebel Newsom, a documentary filmmaker who calls herself California’s “First Partner,” is no mere housewife baking cookies and holding teas, in the famous words of Hillary Rodham Clinton. (Hold the outrage, folks, this is not some retrograde criticism of career-seeking women.)

Among her many public-facing activities, Siebel Newsom heads The Representation Project, a nonprofit focused on challenging gender stereotypes. The organization has faced criticism for accepting donations from companies that lobby the governor, so it’s not unreasonable to ask whether those interests have improperly sought to influence Newsom by giving money to Siebel Newsom’s causes.

My Times colleagues reported that an investigation related to Siebel Newsom has been underway for about a year and was launched by federal prosecutors in Sacramento based on whistle-blower information provided in California. It was not, their source said, the result of a directive out of Washington.

A second probe, they reported, is related to Newsom’s ex-chief of staff, Dana Williamson, who pleaded guilty last month to bank and wire fraud involving a scheme to steal campaign funds from Xavier Becerra, the Democratic candidate for governor.

The problem with all this federal sleuthing is the utter lack of credibility attached to Trump’s Justice Department. Which is what happens when you turn the department into an arm of Trump’s malevolent fiefdom and deploy its prosecutors as henchmen targeting the president’s perceived enemies.

Advertisement

“This is a huge problem,” Randall Eliason, former chief of the Public Corruption Section of the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Washington, told Politico. “In any political corruption prosecution, the defense almost always claims it is a ‘political witch hunt,’ that prosecutors are targeting him or her for some political reason.

“The best defense to that has always been [the Justice Department’s] tradition of independence from politics and long track record of pursuing corruption cases based only on the facts and law, without regard to political considerations,” Eliason said. “The Trump administration has abandoned that independence without even trying to hide it.”

The probe of Newsom and his wife presents more questions than answers.

It’s grody, but not criminal on its face, for lobbyists to curry favor with the governor by throwing cash at his wife’s endeavors — if, in fact, that’s been the case. Special interests spending money to gain access and influence is about as common in Sacramento and other capitals as statues, domed buildings and manicured lawns.

So why then are the feds investigating Newsom? Why now? Is there any fire, or is it all a lot of smoke?

Advertisement

Perhaps most important, where can you turn to get an impartial answer?

Continue Reading

Politics

Trump’s Iran gamble divides GOP hawks and ‘America First’ conservatives over what victory looks like

Published

on

Trump’s Iran gamble divides GOP hawks and ‘America First’ conservatives over what victory looks like

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

President Donald Trump may have united Republicans behind military action against Iran, but his push to formalize peace is proving far more divisive.

As details of a memorandum of understanding emerge, GOP hawks are questioning whether the administration gave up too much, while Trump allies argue the president achieved a historic objective that crippled Iran’s military capabilities without dragging the U.S. into another prolonged war.

The disagreement is about more than Iran. It has exposed a growing divide inside the GOP over what Trump’s “America First” foreign policy should look like in practice — and what victory should mean once a military campaign ends.

At its core, the debate centers on competing visions of American power. One camp views military success as leverage to extract maximum concessions from adversaries and secure lasting strategic gains. The other sees it as a tool to neutralize threats and end conflicts before they become another Iraq or Afghanistan. Trump’s Iran agreement has forced those competing philosophies into a rare public collision.

Advertisement

That divide is already playing out among some of the party’s most prominent national security voices.

TOP SENATE REPUBLICAN RIPS INTO TRUMP’S IRAN DEAL, SAYS $300 BILLION MAKES OBAMA DEAL LOOK LIKE ‘A PITTANCE’

The administration’s memorandum of understanding with Tehran has exposed a divide among Republicans over what constitutes victory after the military campaign against Iran. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

The deal’s fiercest Republican critics argue Trump is giving away leverage at the very moment Iran is most vulnerable. Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., has blasted the agreement on X as the “worst foreign policy blunder in decades,” while Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., has warned it appears “out of step” with the goals of the military campaign.

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, has questioned the concessions offered to Tehran and former U.N. Ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has criticized proposals that could help rebuild Iran.

Advertisement

Former Vice President Mike Pence has gone even further, calling the agreement a potential “lifeline” for the regime and warning it “smacks of appeasement.”

VANCE SAYS ‘UNITED STATES WINS EITHER WAY’ AS HE DEFENDS TRUMP’S IRAN DEAL AGAINST GOP SKEPTICS

Vice President JD Vance has defended Trump’s Iran agreement as the culmination of a successful military campaign that brought Tehran to the negotiating table from a position of weakness. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Trump’s allies, however, argue critics are overlooking the sweeping military campaign that preceded the agreement.

Vice President JD Vance and other administration officials contend the president achieved his core objective after U.S. and allied forces struck key Iranian military and nuclear sites, eliminated senior commanders and inflicted significant damage on Tehran’s military infrastructure. Supporters say those operations crippled Iran’s ability to project power, restored deterrence and ultimately brought the regime to the negotiating table without requiring a large-scale deployment of American ground troops.

Advertisement

They argue victory is defined by achieving U.S. objectives and ending the conflict on favorable terms — not by risking another prolonged war in the Middle East.

The clash highlights a foreign policy debate that has been simmering inside the Republican Party for years.

NEW SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FIRES, NAVAL BASE DAMAGE ACROSS IRAN AFTER US-ISRAELI STRIKES

Supporters argue the agreement locks in military gains, while critics contend it gives Tehran too much after suffering major setbacks. (Fatemeh Bahrami/Getty Images)

While Republicans have largely rallied around Trump’s use of military force against Iran, the disagreement over what comes next reflects a deeper tension inside the party.

Advertisement

For traditional hawks, military victories create opportunities to reshape adversaries and secure lasting concessions. For many America First conservatives, the objective is narrower: neutralize threats, avoid nation-building and keep U.S. troops out of prolonged conflicts.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

As lawmakers and conservative leaders continue debating the memorandum of understanding’s merits, the fight may ultimately be less about the details of the Iran deal than about the future direction of Republican foreign policy — and what victory should mean in the Middle East.

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending