Politics
California will play a big role in the fight for power in Congress. Tuesday’s primary sets the stage
California’s decision to redraw its congressional map to flip as many as five House seats to Democrats in November is poised to play a big and potentially decisive role in the nation’s broader, bare-knuckle fight for control of Congress.
Tuesday’s primary races — where the top two candidates will advance to November runoffs — won’t determine which Republicans are ousted in most cases, but they will provide an important first look at voter sentiment and bring the fall’s most crucial head-to-head contests into focus.
“There will be some real cues and signals about what to expect,” said Christian Grose, a redistricting scholar and political science professor at USC. “We’re going to know how strong the Democrats’ chances are going to be based on who advances.”
As one example, Grose pointed to the redrawn 22nd Congressional District in the Central Valley, where incumbent Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) is facing challenges from moderate Assemblymember Jasmeet Kaur Bains (D-Delano) and progressive college professor Randy Villegas.
Grose said Bains is probably a stronger challenger than Villegas in a district that’s still a reach for Democrats — even if “either one could probably beat Valadao if 2026 is a big Democratic wave.”
Grose will also be closely watching the race between incumbent Reps. Young Kim (R-Anaheim Hills) and Ken Calvert (R-Corona) in the redrawn Congressional District 40, which covers a swath of inland Orange County and portions of San Bernardino and Riverside counties, including parts of Kim’s and Calvert’s current districts.
The district race wasn’t designed to deliver Democrats a seat, but will produce “one of the first casualties for Republicans from the new map” — months before other expected ousters — if Kim and Calvert don’t both advance.
The national picture
The redistricting war was prompted by President Trump’s unprecedented pressuring of Republican-controlled states to redraw their maps mid-decade for partisan advantage in order to retain control of Congress, given his sinking approval ratings and a history of midterm voters punishing the president’s party.
After Texas Republicans heeded Trump’s call to redraw five districts in their party’s favor, California Democrats responded with Proposition 50, a ballot measure passed by voters in November to sideline the state’s independent redistricting committee and allow Democrats to redraw five congressional districts in their favor.
The war ratcheted up — with more Republican states suddenly considering map changes — after a U.S. Supreme Court decision in April that weakened the 1965 Voting Rights Act and its long-standing protections for majority-Black districts in the South.
Republicans have now acted to redraw congressional maps in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Tennessee, with varying degrees of success, while a battle in Utah could add a single additional Democratic seat there. Attempts in other states have failed, including by the GOP in South Carolina and Democrats in Virginia.
Experts say the net result from the flurry of redistricting will probably be a gain of a handful or more seats for Republicans — but in a year when Democrats are expected to make gains more broadly, leaving control of the House up for grabs. California’s new map is “a huge deal” precisely because that math is so close, said David Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst for the independent, nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
“Democrats are modest favorites for House control based on the political environment, but also because of California,” Wasserman said in an interview with The Times. “Picking up these four or five seats is a prerequisite to Democrats getting the majority.”
California seats in play
California has 52 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, by far the most of any state. With their new map, California Democrats are hoping to increase their 43 House seats to 48. That would leave just four seats represented by members of the GOP despite Republicans accounting for a quarter of the state electorate.
But that outcome isn’t guaranteed.
Paul Mitchell, a Democratic redistricting expert who devised California’s new map, said the reconfigured congressional districts had to create a pathway for new Democrats to win additional seats without undermining incumbent Democrats’ reelection. And the result is a map with three pretty safe pickups for Democrats, and two districts that are “100% on the table, ready for Democrats to win,” but will nonetheless “require shoe-leather and grit.”
The redrawn congressional district boundaries enacted by Proposition 50 promise to shake up at least three seats, experts said.
Congressional District 1: Held by the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Richvale) for 13 years until his death in January, the district is currently rural and conservative, stretching from the Sacramento outskirts through Redding to the Oregon border and California’s northeastern corner. Under the state’s new congressional district map, it loses some of its rural reaches and picks up liberal coastal communities, and favors a Democrat such as state Sen. Mike McGuire, who is one of the leading candidates.
Congressional District 3: The seat is currently held by Rep. Kevin Kiley (I-Rocklin) and stretches from the Sacramento suburbs through Lake Tahoe and south along the Nevada border. Under the new map, it holds more tightly to the Sacramento suburbs, favoring a Democrat.
The changes were enough to convince an incumbent Democrat, Rep. Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove), to leave his current district — Congressional District 6, which includes the city of Sacramento and the suburbs of Roseville and Rocklin in Placer County — and run in District 3 instead.
Meanwhile, Kiley did the reverse. He quit the Republican Party, became an independent and announced he would be leaving District 3 and running instead in District 6 — the one Bera is leaving — against a slate of new Democratic challengers.
Congressional District 41. The seat is now held by Calvert, a 17-term incumbent, and currently stretches from Corona to the Coachella Valley. The new map made the district more liberal, losing voters in Riverside County and gaining them in Los Angeles County, and Calvert decided to run instead in Kim’s redrawn but still Republican-leaning Congressional District 40 that is just to the west.
The two toughest flips for Democrats, experts said, are Congressional District 22, Valadao’s heavily Latino district in the Central Valley, followed by Congressional District 48 in San Diego and Riverside counties, where Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Bonsall) decided to retire rather than run for reelection.
Valadao is viewed as especially vulnerable because of his recent support for Medicaid cuts, but he has proved resilient in the past. Meanwhile, his two leading Democratic challengers, Bains and Villegas, are in a bitter fight, with Bains receiving Democratic establishment support and Villegas winning endorsements from prominent progressives.
In Issa’s district, moderate Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond is running against several infighting Democrats, including San Diego Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert and former Obama labor official Ammar Campa-Najjar.
Not new, or over
Jeff Wice, a New York Law School professor who was involved in California redistricting efforts in 2010, said the state “has long played hardball politics on redistricting,” including when then-Rep. Phil Burton, a powerful San Francisco Democrat, bragged more than 40 years ago that the complex congressional boundaries he’d crafted for Democrats were his “contribution to modern art.”
But in five decades studying redistricting, Wice said he has never seen such “politically driven, partisan politics” as are occurring now across the nation, which he said have “no root in law, reason or fairness” — and are only likely to continue.
“This state-by-state war is far from over, and may continue all the way through 2030,” he said. “A lot of it depends on the outcome of this November’s election.”
Wasserman said the country has “entered an era of no-holds-barred redistricting,” and he also sees redistricting efforts continuing — including in California, where they would present a distinct threat to the state’s few remaining Republicans.
Michael Li, senior counsel in the Democracy Program at the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law, said California is a “big part of the story” this election cycle, thanks to Proposition 50. “Democrats in California proved to be very determined and resourceful and managed to get that done, and right now California is the big offset to Republican gerrymandering around the country,” he said.
But what will come of it all — in California and across the country — is still to be determined.
“When you’re gerrymandering, you’re making a bet that you know what the politics of the future will look like, and it’s hard to predict,” he said. “It’s a high-risk, high-reward venture.”
Politics
Medical examiner releases preliminary findings in Lindsey Graham’s death as death certificate remains pending
Lindsey Graham’s sudden death prompts medical questions, political reactions
Fox News senior medical analyst Dr. Marc Siegel examines the shocking death of Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., at 71. Siegel discusses the emergency response, including chest pains and a delayed entry due to a deadbolt. He connects the death to a family history of heart attacks and considers how a long flight to Ukraine may have contributed to heart stress, dehydration, and a fatal arrhythmia.
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The District of Columbia’s Office of the Chief Medical Examiner on Sunday released preliminary findings indicating Sen. Lindsey Graham suffered an aortic dissection due to arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease before his death.
Graham, 71, was pronounced dead at George Washington University Hospital at 10:23 p.m. Saturday, according to a joint statement from the Metropolitan Police Department and the District of Columbia’s Office of the Chief Medical Examiner. An autopsy was performed Sunday.
The medical examiner emphasized that the findings are not final and that Graham’s death certificate will remain pending while toxicological and microscopic testing is completed.
“The preliminary examination findings were: Aortic Dissection due to Arteriosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease,” the medical examiner’s office said in a statement.
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM DEAD AT 71 AFTER ‘BRIEF AND SUDDEN’ ILLNESS, OFFICE SAYS
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., speaks to reporters after a briefing by Trump administration officials on U.S. strikes on Iran at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on March 3, 2026. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu)
The office emphasized that the findings are preliminary and that Graham’s death certificate remains pending. Officials said comprehensive toxicological and microscopic testing is routinely conducted when an autopsy is performed in the District and must be completed before the death certificate is updated with the cause and manner of death.
An aortic dissection is a tear in the inner layer of the aorta, the body’s largest artery, that allows blood to flow between the layers of the vessel wall, according to the Mayo Clinic. The condition is considered a life-threatening medical emergency that can lead to severe internal bleeding or organ damage.
Arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease refers to the buildup of plaque inside the arteries, which can restrict blood flow and increase the risk of serious heart and vascular complications.
LINDSEY GRAHAM, SOUTH CAROLINA SENATOR WHO ROSE FROM SMALL-TOWN ROOTS TO GOP POWER BROKER, DIES AT 71
Sen. Lindsey Graham, Member of the US Senate, speaks to the people during the demonstration for human rights in Iran at Theresienwiese during the 62nd Munich Security Conference on February 14, 2026 in Munich, Germany. (Hannes Magerstaedt/Getty Images)
The release of the preliminary findings comes after Graham, 71, died Saturday night, shocking colleagues in Washington and across the nation.
Graham, a Republican who was first elected to the Senate in 2002 after serving four terms in the House of Representatives, became one of the chamber’s most influential voices on national security, foreign policy and the judiciary. He chaired the Senate Judiciary Committee during President Donald Trump’s first term and was one of the president’s closest allies on judicial nominations and defense policy.
A U.S. flag flies at half-staff over the Capitol on July 12, 2026, after the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. Emergency dispatch audio reviewed by Fox News Digital documents the emergency response before his office announced his death. (Kevin Carter/Getty Images)
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Following news of Graham’s death, tributes poured in from lawmakers across the political spectrum, with colleagues remembering his decades of public service and his influence on some of the Senate’s most consequential debates.
The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner said it will update Graham’s death certificate after toxicological and microscopic testing is complete.
More than three dozen California legislators are calling for Gov. Gavin Newsom to exempt the state’s film and TV production incentive program from a recently approved cap on corporate tax credits, warning that without action it will be “significantly kneecapped.”
Though the state’s budget has already been approved, the legislators say a solution must be devised before the end of the year so that production companies do not lose the “full value of tax credits they earned in exchange for creating middle-class entertainment industry jobs,” according to a letter dated Friday and addressed to Newsom, State Senate President Pro Tempore Monique Limón and Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas.
“Tax credits earned for creating jobs in motion picture and television production are not the same as tax credits provided for research and development,” the letter states. The legislation “creates short-term budget savings by reneging on commitments made to the entertainment industry and the working families who depend upon it for their livelihoods.”
The letter comes shortly after Newsom signed his final state budget as California’s governor, a $351.7-billion spending plan that includes new limitations on corporate tax credits.
The budget includes a provision that restricts the maximum tax credit companies can claim in a given year to $5 million or 50% of a company’s tax state tax liability, whichever is greater.
Hollywood industry representatives had warned the governor’s office that the new restrictions could affect the state’s production incentive program, which was just bolstered last year to an annual cap of $750 million.
The film and TV industry in Southern California has struggled to rebound from the effects of the pandemic, the dual writers’ and actors’ strikes in 2023 and the exodus of production to other states and countries.
Members who voted for the budget bill had believed there was a carve-out for the film and TV tax credit program, said Assemblyman Rick Chavez Zbur (D-Los Angeles), chair of the Assembly Democratic Caucus.
“I don’t think that anyone understood what this cap was, what it did and that it effectively kneecapped and reverses the progress that we made last year,” Zbur, who co-authored last year’s bill, said in an interview. “We need to have people understand that these changes, which I think people believed were minor, are really significant and will result in significant job loss if we don’t fix them.”
The new changes to the state’s film and TV tax credit program, which included expanded eligibility for additional shows and films, came after intense lobbying from studios and industry workers, who argued that more funding was necessary to lure production back from other states and countries.
Last week, the California Film Commission said the expanded tax credit program was set to deliver $6.6 billion in direct production spending in-state and more than 34,000 cast and crew jobs across the 170 total film and TV shows that received production incentives this year.
Politics
Graham’s death ignites GOP scramble for Senate seat as Trump hints he already has a favorite
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Sen. Lindsey Graham’s, R-S.C., sudden death from an undisclosed illness has triggered a two-pronged approach to replace him, and President Donald Trump will likely be a focal point in the process.
Graham’s passing overnight comes at a time when Republicans in the upper chamber need every vote they can get. The Senate GOP now holds a 52-seat majority, and with the timetable for Sen. Mitch McConnell’s, R-Ky., absence still unclear, that majority is now effectively 51 votes.
That will up the pressure, and drama, to find a replacement for the longtime South Carolina lawmaker.
LINDSEY GRAHAM, SOUTH CAROLINA SENATOR WHO ROSE FROM SMALL-TOWN ROOTS TO GOP POWER BROKER, DIES AT 71
Sen. Lindsey Graham speaks with reporters aboard Air Force One with President Donald Trump and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick on the way back to Washington, D.C., on Jan. 4, 2026. (Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images)
Trump, during an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday, said, “I have somebody that I think would be great.”
“But I don’t want to say it now because it’s just, it’s too soon with Lindsey,” Trump said. “I don’t wanna even talk about anybody, but I do have somebody that I think is really good.”
It’s a process guided by the Constitution and state law. The first step will require South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster, a Republican, to appoint a replacement for Graham on a temporary basis.
McMaster, a close ally of Trump, can appoint a temporary replacement as soon as he wants. That pick will serve until the next special or general election.
MCCONNELL FACES FRESH CALLS TO COME CLEAN ABOUT HEALTH ISSUES
Fox News Digital did not immediately hear back from McMaster’s office on when he would make the announcement, or who he was considering for the seat.
Graham was already in-cycle running for a fifth term in the upper chamber, and he easily cruised to a primary victory early last month. That means that whoever McMaster taps would serve until the end of the year to finish off the remainder of Graham’s fourth term.
The second prong is finding his long-term successor.
The candidate filing period for that special election to win the GOP nomination opens July 21. The election is slated for Aug. 11, according to South Carolina law.
That race could see several familiar faces in South Carolina GOP politics jumping in, including McMaster himself, who is termed out as governor.
TRUMP’S ENDORSEMENT POWER FACES ANOTHER GOP TEST IN SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER ALAN WILSON ADVANCES
Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., departs the U.S. Capitol after a series of House votes on funding for Homeland Security and a War Powers resolution on Iran on March 5, 2026, in Washington, D.C. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Trump heaped praise on McMaster, noting that he endorsed his first bid for the White House in 2016.
“Henry’s been a great governor, you know now he’s termed out, but he’s going to do the right thing,” Trump said. “I think Henry will be fantastic.”
There are six members of South Carolina’s GOP congressional delegation who could toss their hats into the mix. Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., who recently lost a bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, is eyeing jumping into the special election.
A person familiar with Mace’s plans told Fox News Digital, “Congresswoman Mace is considering a bid to run.”
Then there’s Rep. Joe Wilson, R-S.C., the longest-serving Republican member of the Palmetto State’s delegation. He quickly snuffed speculation about whether he’d leap into the fray.
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“I was grateful to speak with President Trump today reminiscing about our mutual friend, Senator Lindsey Graham,” Wilson said on X. “I assured him my goal is to remain in the House to keep his two-vote majority for the American people!!!”
Then there’s the remaining four: South Carolina Republican Reps. Ralph Norman, who also lost out on scoring the GOP nomination for governor, Russell Fry, William Timmons and Sheri Biggs, none of whom, so far, have signaled that they would jump into the battle for Graham’s seat.
Meanwhile, South Carolina Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette could also be in the mix.
A source familiar told Fox News Digital that Evette is receiving “tons of encouragement from all across the state and from around the country” to serve as the temporary caretaker for Graham’s seat.
The source said that Evette is also being encouraged to run to seek a full six-year term in the Senate.
Evette, a top South Carolina ally of Trump’s and McMaster’s, was endorsed by both as she finished first in South Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial primary in this year’s race to succeed McMaster.
But after Trump also endorsed her GOP rival in the runoff, State Attorney General Alan Wilson, she was trounced by Wilson a few weeks ago in the runoff election
Fox News Digital did not immediately receive responses to requests for comment from possible contenders in the House.
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