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2026 Midterms Tracker: The Key Senate and House Races

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2026 Midterms Tracker: The Key Senate and House Races

Control of both chambers of Congress is up for grabs this fall. Democrats’ chances to seize power from the Republicans hinge on a narrow set of battleground seats and states.

There will be elections in every one of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 in the Senate in November. But only a small fraction are truly competitive. Here are the races expected to decide the midterm elections, according to the most recent ratings by the Cook Political Report.

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House

35 competitive races

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The magic number to win the majority in the House is 218 seats.

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Right now, Democrats would need victories in 11 of the 18 races that Cook rates as tossups to clinch the majority, so long as they also secure seats leaning or likely Democratic. In order for Republicans to keep control, they need to win eight of the tossup races, plus the ones that lean in their favor.

The political environment favors Democrats. They have been winning in special elections — and won governors races last year — by wide margins. President Trump is increasingly unpopular as gas prices remain high and the Iran war drags on.

But the 2026 congressional map has been remade through the nationwide redistricting wars to favor the G.O.P. And the maps remain in flux as some Republican states, especially in the South, are pushing to erase even more Democratic districts.

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The most competitive House races

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District Incumbent Rating ▾
Ariz. 1 None Tossup Polls ›
Ariz. 6 Juan Ciscomani R Tossup Polls ›
Calif. 22 David Valadao R Tossup Polls ›
Colo. 8 Gabe Evans R Tossup Polls ›
Fla. 25 Jared Moskowitz D Tossup
Iowa 1 Mariannette Miller-Meeks R Tossup
Iowa 3 Zach Nunn R Tossup
Mich. 7 Tom Barrett R Tossup Polls ›
N.J. 7 Thomas Kean Jr. R Tossup Polls ›
N.Y. 17 Mike Lawler R Tossup Polls ›

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Note: “None” indicates races where the current representative announced retirement or the incumbent lost their primary.

The House battleground is likely to change several times between now and November. Some House races that are less competitive now may become so this fall. And some races currently seen as competitive seats are likely to fall off the map entirely, as incumbents or challengers fade.

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Senate

10 competitive races

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Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats. Democrats would need to flip four states, while defending their two most vulnerable seats in Michigan and Georgia, in order to win the majority.

Democrats would need to win 51 seats because in a 50-50 Senate, Vice President JD Vance would cast the tie-breaking vote for Republicans. It’s a tall task that would require Democrats to win seven of the eight races that Cook rates as tossups or leans, including at least two seats in states that Mr. Trump won by double digits in 2024 — between Alaska, Ohio and Texas.

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The most competitive Senate races

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Note: “None” indicates if a current senator announced retirement or the incumbent lost their primary.

The odds are one reason Democrats have pushed to compete for seats in states like Texas, Iowa and Nebraska, even though these races more strongly favor Republicans. In fact, in Nebraska, the party has rallied behind an independent candidate, Dan Osborn, as the best shot to unseat a Republican.

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Senate races that could become more competitive

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State Incumbent Rating ▾
Iowa None Likely R Likely Rep. Polls ›
Neb. Pete Ricketts R Likely R Likely Rep. Polls ›

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How ICE’s Traffic Stops Led to Fatal Confrontations

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ICE has been trying to continue its mass deportations without drawing headlines. Our White House correspondent Zolan Kanno-Youngs explains how two fatal shootings at traffic stops raise the question of whether the Trump administration can continue its campaign without deadly consequences.

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Where Wildfire Smoke Is The Worst Right Now—And What To Do About It

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Where Wildfire Smoke Is The Worst Right Now—And What To Do About It

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The National Weather Service is cautioning people in states as far south as South Carolina to monitor local air quality as smoke from hundreds of Canadian wildfires pours over the border and American politicians rail against the country as the fires burn out of control.

Key Facts

The National Weather Service issued air quality alerts Friday due to wildfire smoke in parts of North Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, New Jersey, Delaware, Rhode Island, New York, Connecticut, Maryland and Washington D.C.

Air quality in parts of Michigan has been declared “hazardous”—the most extreme category—and Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois and Indiana are experiencing “very unhealthy” levels of air pollution.

New York, including New York City, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware and Maryland are warning of “unhealthy” air and a widespread haze from the smoke, and states further south and east are warning sensitive populations may be at risk.

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The smoke is spilling across borders from roughly 850 wildfires burning in Canada, many of the largest in Ontario, and more than a dozen fires in northern Minnesota.

Republican members of Congress are slamming Canada’s government for what they perceive as inaction in preventing and stopping the wildfires causing the smoke and poor air quality, with one even calling for sanctions.

Four Michigan Republicans—Reps. John James, Jack Bergman, John Moolenaar and Lisa McClain—said in a letter this week that Canada “has the tools to prevent” the smoke from pouring into the U.S. and “has chosen not to,” and Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) said in a post on X that he will table a bill next week to “sanction Canada and the responsible Canadian government officials for this atrocity.”

CRUCIAL QUOTE

“Our constituents are breathing the consequences of this failure right now, and they deserve better than to be told, again, that it will be handled,” the Michigan lawmakers said in their letter.

HOW TO STAY SAFE FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE

Those in states with extreme air quality warnings are being cautioned to limit outdoor activity and, in states with very unhealthy and hazardous warnings, to stay inside altogether with windows closed. Doctors advise anyone with heart or lung disease to stay indoors, and other groups to take precautions. For people who work outside, health officials have recommended wearing an N95 mask, which can filter at least 95% of airborne particles.

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WHY IS WIDLFIRE SMOKE SO DANGEROUS?

Smoke from wildfires is made of water vapor, pollutants and particulate matter, which can penetrate the lungs and bloodstream, trigger systemic inflammation, exacerbate conditions like asthma and increase the risk of heart attacks and strokes. Smoke also contains a mix of harmful gases, most notably carbon monoxide. Wildfire smoke has been linked to respiratory and cardiovascular health problems, with children and teenagers, older adults, pregnant people and anyone with pre-existing heart or lung conditions at a particular risk.

SHOULD PEOPLE IN WILDFIRE SMOKE STATES WEAR A MASK?

When the Air Quality Index rises to unhealthy levels—as it has in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Connecticut on Thursday—masks are recommended for people who must spend time outside. Respirator masks worn correctly may provide some protection against fine particles in the smoke, but they do not help with hazardous gases. Staying inside is considered the safest option, but those who must go outside can mitigate some risk by wearing a mask. N95 or P100 respirators are considered the most effective.

Key background

Scientists say climate change is creating hotter, drier conditions and longer fire seasons, increasing the likelihood of large, intense wildfires across North America. NASA says human-caused warming is driving more frequent and severe wildfire conditions in many regions, and that extreme wildfire activity has more than doubled worldwide over the past two decades. Research shows fire seasons in some areas are now more than a month longer than they were 35 years ago, and those larger fires also produce more smoke, allowing hazardous air pollution to travel hundreds or even thousands of miles and affect millions of people far from the flames.

BIG NUMBER

$394 billion to $893 billion. That’s the annual cost of wildfires in the United States each year, according to the Joint Economic Committee, including direct and indirect deaths and injuries, health impacts from wildfire smoke, income loss, watershed pollution and other factors.

further reading

ForbesEntire States Under Air Quality Alerts As Wildfire Smoke Spreads—Here’s Where It Could Go NextForbesGlobal Air Quality Declines As Wildfires Surge Across Continents

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Flood sirens blare in South Central Texas as rivers reach perilous heights

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Flood sirens blare in South Central Texas as rivers reach perilous heights

A person views the Guadalupe River after flash flooding occurred along its banks on July 16, 2026 in Center Point, Texas. Flash floods swept across parts of Central Texas, prompting evacuations and triggering multiple water rescues.

Brandon Bell/Getty Images


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Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Dangerous floods are hitting South Central Texas — a region that just marked one year since more than 130 people died in catastrophic flooding. Gov. Greg Abbott says at least two people have died in the current emergency.

More than 230 rescues have been made, the governor said Thursday evening, adding that more than 2,350 responders and 1,400 vehicles have been deployed.

A wide swath of Texas is under flood alerts, from the Kerrville area south to Uvalde and beyond to Laredo. In parts of Uvalde County, muddy floodwaters covered roads and fields and rose nearly as high as houses’ rooftops, according to a video posted by Texas Department of Public Safety.

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With heavy rains expected to continue into Friday, Abbott said Uvalde and Johnson City are at the greatest risk of life-threatening floods overnight.

“The people in that area need to be very cautious,” Abbott said.

In some cases, communities that endured flooding on Wednesday are being deluged once again.

“Showers and thunderstorms continue developing and moving into areas that are currently experiencing dangerous flooding conditions,” the National Weather Service office in San Antonio and Austin said.

NPR member stations in Texas are covering the floods. In some cases, residents tell reporters that flooding exceeds levels they saw in 2025.

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In Kerrville, the city police department said in a noon update that while high water had mostly receded, the emergency is ongoing, with numerous road and bridge closures. The agency urged residents not to venture out.

“There is a lot of people driving around to take a look and that is not helpful,” the police said.

At least one summer camp has evacuated, according to the Texas Newsroom, and state lawmakers say they’re seeing an improved safety response to the floods, thanks to an increase in disaster resources such as funding for warning systems and flood mitigation.

The Guadalupe River rose at terrifying speed near Comfort, Texas, Thursday morning — from 5.46 feet at 5 a.m. CT to 37.05 feet at 8:05 a.m. — according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

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