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Can Donald Trump or Kamala Harris Bring Back Manufacturing Jobs?

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Can Donald Trump or Kamala Harris Bring Back Manufacturing Jobs?

Canton, Ohio, once called itself the City of Diversified Industries. That name, locals acknowledge, does not exactly roll off the tongue. But it reflected an important part of the town’s identity as a manufacturing hub, with businesses like the appliance company Hoover based there.

Today, Canton is not doing as well. The number of manufacturing jobs has fallen 45 percent since the late 1990s, as factories have shuttered or moved to Mexico, China and elsewhere. People have joined the exodus; the city’s population is now 71,000, down from 110,000 in 1970. The poverty rate — 25 percent — is nearly double the state average.

Canton represents the kind of struggling manufacturing town that once churned out American products. Both major party presidential candidates have pledged to revitalize this kind of place by bringing back manufacturing to the United States.

Canton represents the kind of struggling manufacturing town that once churned out American products.

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The Canton Palace Theater.

To make foreign products less competitive against American goods, former President Donald J. Trump has promised to impose a 10 percent to 20 percent tariff — effectively a sales tax — on all imports. Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed new government subsidies to build factories in the United States.

In some ways, the campaigns promise to revive the conditions that made Canton a manufacturing hub in the first place. In the early 20th century, the United States had higher tariffs on imports, which helped keep American goods cheaper than foreign products. At the same time, a local group of businessmen, known as the Canton Board of Trade, used what were effectively subsidies — money and free land — to lure manufacturers into the area.

Still, many economists are skeptical. They argue that the candidates’ proposals aren’t enough to reverse the trends — globalization, free trade agreements, automation and other technological changes — that caused manufacturing jobs to leave America in the first place.

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Consider Mr. Trump’s tariffs plan. The goal of tariffs is to drive up the price of cheap foreign products, so more expensive American goods can compete. But Mr. Trump’s plan would raise prices on all imports, including components used by manufacturers to make American goods. As manufacturers pay more for those parts, the possible benefits of a tariff could wash away.

Across-the-board tariffs “cause all sorts of indirect costs and damage for manufacturers,” said Alec Stapp, an economist and co-founder of the Institute for Progress, a think tank. He cited research that found tariffs from Mr. Trump’s presidency had hurt more than helped American manufacturers.

Given that outcome, the tariffs might simply raise prices — as foreign companies pass the cost of higher taxes down to consumers — without leading to more American manufacturing jobs. That would be especially difficult for a place like Canton, where people are relatively poorer and higher prices eat up a greater portion of lower incomes.

Ms. Harris’s proposal of new investments and tax credits might have more success bringing back some jobs. Federal handouts have kick-started renewable energy projects nationwide. And President Biden’s subsidies have led to a boom in new factory construction, including a large microchip plant in Phoenix.

But subsidies are usually upfront and temporary, limiting their effect. Companies build new factories expecting to keep them open for years. They can’t do that if they know a crucial source of funding will eventually expire. That helps explain why, despite Mr. Biden’s subsidies, the number of manufacturing jobs nationwide remains 34 percent lower than it was in the late 1970s.

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The question is whether the American economy has evolved past the days of making basic goods. As the country has become richer and more educated, its economic output has become more about innovation and new technologies, instead of mass-produced household items.

The American product of the future is artificial intelligence, not vacuum cleaners.

A vacant apartment building.

The Metallus steel plant.

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In this economic reality, places like Canton have lost out as others, like Silicon Valley and Boston, have benefited from their tech industries. Politicians have long promised to help retrain workers to get into new industries, but those programs have historically failed to deliver.

Modern manufacturing jobs also often require a postsecondary education. Yet in Canton, residents are 36 percent less likely to have an associate degree or higher than all Ohioans.

“For many people, getting a factory job right out of high school was the norm, and it provided a very good living with the security of a pension in retirement,” said Kimberly Kenney, a local historian and executive director of the McKinley Presidential Library and Museum.

Canton, then, faces a fundamental mismatch between the work force that it has and the work force that the country’s new economy needs. (Canton officials declined to comment for this article.)

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All of that makes it unlikely that Canton and other former manufacturing hubs can be revived by simply bringing back their old jobs. Local leaders have acknowledged as much, starting an organization that seeks to revitalize Canton by boosting local higher education and expanding the town’s economy into fracking and tourism.

It’s possible that the glory days of the City of Diversified Industries will never come back, despite politicians’ promises.

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Supreme Court blocks redrawing of New York congressional map, dealing a win for GOP

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Supreme Court blocks redrawing of New York congressional map, dealing a win for GOP

The Supreme Court

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The Supreme Court on Monday intervened in New York’s redistricting process, blocking a lower court decision that would likely have flipped a Republican congressional district into a Democratic district.    
  
At issue is the midterm redrawing of New York’s 11th congressional district, including Staten Island and a small part of Brooklyn. The district is currently held by a Republican, but on Jan. 21, a state Supreme Court judge ruled that the current district dilutes the power of Black and Latino voters in violation of the state constitution.  
  
GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, who represents the district, and the Republican co-chair of the state Board of Elections promptly appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, asking the justices to block the redrawing as an unconstitutional “racial gerrymander.” New York’s congressional election cycle was set to officially begin Feb. 24, the opening day for candidates to seek placement on the ballot.  
  
As in this year’s prior mid-decade redistricting fights — in Texas and California — the Trump administration backed the Republicans.   
 
Voters and the State of New York contended it’s too soon for the Supreme Court to wade into this dispute. New York’s highest state court has not issued a final judgment, so the voters asserted that if the Supreme Court grants relief now “future stay applicants will see little purpose in waiting for state court rulings before coming to this Court” and “be rewarded for such gamesmanship.” The state argues this is an issue for “New York courts, not federal courts” to resolve, and there is sufficient time for the dispute to be resolved on the merits. 
  
The court majority explained the decision to intervene in 101 words, which the three dissenting liberal justices  summarized as “Rules for thee, but not for me.” 
 
The unsigned majority order does not explain the Court’s rationale. It says only how long the stay will last, until the case moves through the New York State appeals courts. If, however, the losing party petitions and the court agrees to hear the challenge, the stay extends until the final opinion is announced. 
 
Dissenting from the decision were Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson. Writing for the three, Sotomayor  said that  if nonfinal decisions of a state trial court can be brought to highest court, “then every decision from any court is now fair game.” More immediately, she noted, “By granting these applications, the Court thrusts itself into the middle of every election-law dispute around the country, even as many States redraw their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 election.” 

Monday’s Supreme Court action deviates from the court’s hands-off pattern in these mid-term redistricting fights this year. In two previous cases — from Texas and California — the court refused to intervene, allowing newly drawn maps to stay in effect.  
  
Requests for Supreme Court intervention on redistricting issues has been a recurring theme this term, a trend that is likely to grow.  Earlier last month  the high court allowed California to use a voter-approved, Democratic-friendly map.  California’s redistricting came in response to a GOP-friendly redistricting plan in Texas that the Supreme Court also permitted to move forward. These redistricting efforts are expected to offset one another.     
   
But the high court itself has yet to rule on a challenge to Louisiana’s voting map, which was drawn by the state legislature after the decennial census in order to create a second majority-Black district.  Since the drawing of that second majority-black district, the state has backed away from that map, hoping to return to a plan that provides for only one majority-minority district.    
     
The Supreme Court’s consideration of the Louisiana case has stretched across two terms. The justices failed to resolve the case last term and chose to order a second round of arguments this term adding a new question: Does the state’s intentional creation of a second majority-minority district violate the constitution’s Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments’ guarantee of the right to vote and the authority of Congress to enforce that mandate?    
Following the addition of the new question, the state of Louisiana flipped positions to oppose the map it had just drawn and defended in court. Whether the Supreme Court follows suit remains to be seen. But the tone of the October argument suggested that the court’s conservative supermajority is likely to continue undercutting the 1965 Voting Rights Act.   

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Map: Earthquake Shakes Central California

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Map: Earthquake Shakes Central California

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Pacific time. The New York Times

A minor earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 3.5 struck in Central California on Monday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 7:17 a.m. Pacific time about 6 miles northwest of Pinnacles, Calif., data from the agency shows.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Pacific time. Shake data is as of Monday, March 2 at 10:20 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Monday, March 2 at 11:18 a.m. Eastern.

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US says Kuwait accidentally shot down 3 American jets

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US says Kuwait accidentally shot down 3 American jets

The U.S. and Israel have been conducting strikes against targets in Iran since Saturday morning, with the aim of toppling Tehran’s clerical regime. Iran has fired back, with retaliatory assaults featuring missiles and drones targeting several Gulf countries and American bases in the Middle East.

“All six aircrew ejected safely, have been safely recovered, and are in stable condition. Kuwait has acknowledged this incident, and we are grateful for the efforts of the Kuwaiti defense forces and their support in this ongoing operation,” Central Command said.

“The cause of the incident is under investigation. Additional information will be released as it becomes available,” it added.

In a separate statement later Monday, Central Command said that American forces had been killed during combat since the strikes began.

“As of 7:30 am ET, March 2, four U.S. service members have been killed in action. The fourth service member, who was seriously wounded during Iran’s initial attacks, eventually succumbed to their injuries,” it said.

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Major combat operations continue and our response effort is ongoing. The identities of the fallen are being withheld until 24 hours after next of kin notification,” Central Command added.

This story has been updated.

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