Politics and Statehouse Reporter 605-736-4396 alexander.rifaat@sdnewswatch.org
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Editor’s note: If you cite the results of this poll, credit South Dakota News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy, per copyright law and our republishing policy.
PIERRE, S.D. – With seven weeks until the June 2 primary, U.S. House Rep. Dusty Johnson is close to avoiding a runoff in the race to secure the GOP nomination for governor, according to a new poll sponsored by South Dakota News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota.
In the contests for U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate, state Attorney General Marty Jackley and U.S. Sen. Mike Rounds have solid leads over their challengers.
The scientific survey of 500 registered Republicans, conducted April 7-11 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, found Johnson leading the four-way contest for governor with 34% of likely GOP primary voters supporting his candidacy.
The other three candidates are effectively tied for second due to the margin of error being plus-or-minus 4.5%. State House Speaker Jon Hansen, of Dell Rapids, has 18% support from GOP voters, and Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden and Gov. Larry Rhoden both have 17%. Roughly 14% of those surveyed were undecided.
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Everything South Dakota voters need to know about statewide contests in the primary and general elections.
If no candidate receives at least 35% of the vote on the June 2 ballot, a runoff between the top two finishers will take place July 28. The winner of the contest will meet Democrat Dan Ahlers in the Nov. 3 general election.
Rhoden’s support drops; Hansen surges
While Johnson, who grew up in Pierre and lives in Mitchell, saw a 6-point increase from the News Watch/Chiesman poll conducted last October, Rhoden’s support fell 10 points.
Julia Hellwege, director of the Chiesman Center and USD associate professor in political science, said Rhoden’s association with his predecessor, former Gov. Kristi Noem, could be behind the drop in poll numbers.
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“He has aligned himself closely with Noem. They worked closely together, and he continues to champion her and stand by her,” she said. “There’s a potential that has been a side effect.”
Rhoden served as lieutenant governor under Noem and became governor in January 2025 when President Donald Trump made her secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. He fired her last month after severe criticism.
Hellwege pointed out the poll found that Johnson even leads in West River, a stronghold for Rhoden, who is from Union Center east of Sturgis.
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She said one candidate more than any other has been the main beneficiary of the declining support for the sitting governor.
“Anyone shifting from Rhoden is more likely to shift towards Hansen,” Hellwege said, noting that Hansen is a state lawmaker, like Rhoden was, who plays up his conservative Christian credentials.
Hellwege said in comparing the new poll results with those from last year, a certain pattern can be seen. That includes the surge in support for Hansen and Johnson, a decline in support for Rhoden, a stable level of support for Doeden and a lower number of undecided voters.
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“My interpretation is many Rhoden voters in the last poll shifted to Hansen voters and the undecideds went to Johnson,” Hellwege said.
SD governor: Johnson in driver’s seat
Hellwege highlighted the extent to which the math favors Johnson.
“Even if all the undecided voters go to one of those second-place candidates, plus if you factor in the margin of error, they still would barely reach where Johnson is sitting right now,” Hellwege said.
Brad Coker, founder of Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, ranked as one of the least-biased and most-factual pollsters, also believes Johnson is in a comfortable position.
“Johnson is moving into the clear front-runner status,” he said.
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“People know him. People like him, and that’s probably why he’s ahead right now. Whether he can hold on to that will depend on what the other campaigns – particularly Hansen’s – are able to do in the coming weeks,” Coker told News Watch, pointing to the poll results that found Johnson has a 47% favorability rating, the highest of any of the candidates.
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Coker said Hansen has the best chance to challenge Johnson not only because his candidacy has seen the biggest increase in support but also due to not many people knowing him – yet.
“Hansen’s name recognition is only 73%. He’s still got 27% of the voters who don’t know who he is, which I think gives him a much higher ceiling than Doeden and Rhoden,” Coker said. “That tells me Hansen is getting some traction.”
On the flip side, Doeden’s 35% unfavorable rating and high name recognition indicate his support has mostly peaked, Coker said.
“He has a higher negative rating than positive rating, which tells me he’s got a core group behind him, but his growth potential is far more limited, especially since he has 89% name recognition,” Coker said.
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The poll was conducted after the four candidates met in the March 31 KELO-TV debate but before the April 13 SDPB and South Dakota News Watch forum.
US House: Jackley has comfortable lead
Since Johnson ran for governor, that opened up South Dakota’s only seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.
In that contest, Jackley – who is from Sturgis and previously served as U.S. attorney for the District of South Dakota – has a comfortable lead toward securing the GOP nomination.
According to the poll, he has 68% support from South Dakota Republican voters surveyed, well ahead of challenger James Bialota Jr., who has 12%, with 20% of respondents undecided.
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“This primary is definitely in Jackley’s favor, even if all the undecideds move to Bialota,” Hellwege said.
The winner will face Democrat Nicole “Nikki” Gronli in the November general election.
US Senate: Incumbent Rounds ahead by large margin
Rounds – who’s from Pierre and was South Dakota’s governor from 2003 to 2011 – also enjoys a sizable lead over his challenger.
He received 66% support from GOP voters surveyed, compared to 18% for challenger Justin McNeal, with 16% of respondents undecided.
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“The fact that McNeal, who is vastly outspent by Rounds, is able to get up to 18% is commendable. But at the same time, I don’t think there’s any expectation that Rounds will not be able to hold on to that seat,” Hellwege said.
The winner will take on Democrat Julian Beaudion in November.
Favorability poll results for all governor, House and Senate candidates
The News Watch/Chiesman poll also asked Republicans their opinions of the candidates. To see results for each person, click the arrow below and the tab for each section: overall, by gender, age and region where they’re from.
Coming Tuesday
Tuesday’s story will focus on South Dakota News Watch/Chiesman Center for Democracy poll results on the job performance rating South Dakotans give Gov. Larry Rhoden, Sen. John Thune and other elected officials. The story also includes voter thoughts on Noem’s time as DHS secretary and President Trump’s decision to fire her.
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South Dakota News Watch is an independent nonprofit. Read, donate and subscribe for free at sdnewswatch.org. Contact politics and statehouse reporter Alexander Rifaat: 605-736-4396/alexander.rifaat@sdnewswatch.org.
WASHINGTON — South Dakota’s governor, the speaker of the state House, the state’s lone representative in Congress and a businessman will face off in a competitive Republican primary for governor on Tuesday. Primary voters will also choose nominees for other state and federal offices, while Sioux Falls residents will elect a new mayor.
Gov. Larry Rhoden seeks a full term as the state’s chief executive. He was previously lieutenant governor under then-Gov. Kristi Noem but assumed the top job when Noem stepped down in early 2025 to join President Donald Trump’s Cabinet.
Serving less than half a term as governor was not enough for Rhoden to clear the Republican field. He faces strong challenges from U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson, state House Speaker Jon Hansen and businessman Toby Doeden.
The winner will face former state Sen. Dan Ahlers in the general election. Ahlers is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
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At the top of the ballot is the race for the U.S. Senate, in which Republican Mike Rounds seeks a third term. His opponent in the primary is Justin McNeal, a U.S. Navy veteran who ran as an independent in 2024 against Johnson for his U.S. House seat but was kept off the ballot over invalid signatures on his nominating petition.
Nonprofit executive and former state trooper Julian Beaudion is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Attorney and military veteran Brian Bengs is running in the general election as an independent. Bengs previously ran for the U.S. Senate in 2022 and received 26% of the vote against Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
State Attorney General Marty Jackley is running to replace Johnson in the U.S. House. He faces Republican James Bialota in the primary.
Trump has endorsed Rounds for U.S. Senate and Jackley for U.S. House. He did not endorse a candidate for governor.
In South Dakota primaries for governor, U.S. Senate and U.S. House, candidates must receive at least 35% of the vote to win the nomination. If no candidate reaches that threshold, the top two vote-getters advance to a June 23 runoff.
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In Sioux Falls, the state’s most populous city, five candidates are competing to replace term-limited Mayor Paul TenHaken. If no candidate receives a vote majority, the top two finishers will advance to the runoff.
The key counties to watch on primary night are on opposite ends of the state. Minnehaha County on the eastern border is home to Sioux Falls. Pennington County on the western border is home to Rapid City.
South Dakota is one of the most reliably Republican-voting states in general elections, so the winners in Tuesday’s GOP primaries should enter the general election campaign with a considerable advantage.
Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:
When do polls close?
Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET. Polls in most of the state are in Central time and close at 8 p.m. ET, but some polls are in Mountain time and close at 9 p.m. ET.
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What’s on the ballot?
The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, state Senate, state House and mayor of Sioux Falls.
Who gets to vote?
Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent voters or those with no party affiliation may participate in the Democratic primary but not the Republican primary.
How many voters are there?
As of April 1, there were about 674,000 registered voters in South Dakota, including about 318,000 registered Republicans, about 138,000 registered Democrats and about 157,000 independents or voters with no political affiliation.
How many people actually vote?
Nearly 119,000 votes were cast in the Republican U.S. Senate primary in 2022.
How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?
About 19% of the 2024 primary vote and about 20% of the 2022 primary vote was cast before primary day.
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As of May 26, about 17,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election, roughly 79% in the Republican primary and roughly 15% in the Democratic primary.
When are early and absentee votes released?
In South Dakota, results from mail and in-person early voting are usually released together with results from in-person Election Day voting. More than a third of the state’s 66 counties tend to release most or all of their results, including in-person Election Day results, in the first vote update.
How long does vote-counting usually take?
Although South Dakota spans two time zones, state law requires that no results are released until the final polls have closed at 9 p.m. ET.
In the state’s most recent U.S. Senate primary in 2022, the AP first reported results at 9:02 p.m. ET, or two minutes after the last polls closed. The final vote update of the night was at 3:22 a.m. ET, with more than 99% of total votes counted.
When will the AP declare a winner?
The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
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How do recounts work?
Recounts in South Dakota are automatic only in cases of tie votes. Losing candidates for statewide office may request a recount if the vote margin is 0.25% or less of the total votes cast. Candidates for state legislative and local offices have a higher threshold: 2% of the total votes cast. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there will be 154 days until the 2026 midterm elections.
SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (KELO) — Storms have prompted multiple tornado warnings in southeastern South Dakota Sunday night.
KELOLAND viewers have sent dozens of photos from the storms that produced hail, strong winds and heavy rains.
Officials said a tornado was confirmed in Lincoln County north of Beresford. The Lincoln County Sheriff’s Office posted a video as the tornado was starting to touchdown.
Clouds northwest of Wall Lake. Photo from Lisa Stelter.
You can see photos in the gallery below.
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You can track storms for yourself using a variety of resources from KELOLAND.
Check your KELOLAND Storm Tracker app for hour-by-hour forecasts, live radar information and get alerts when severe weather is in your area.
We’re also active on social media so you can follow @KELOLANDWeather on X for more timely updates or KELOLAND Weather on Facebook for big picture weather warnings.
For your inner storm chaser, our live cams stream what’s happening live all over KELOLAND, so you can catch a glimpse of the storms from across the area.
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If you take photos of the storms or any damage, submit them at uShare on KELOLAND.com.
The No. 4 South Dakota State baseball team allowed 16 runs in the fifth and sixth innings in a 17-0 loss to No. 3 Arizona State in an elimination game at the NCAA Tournament’s Lincoln Regional.
Starting pitcher Drew McDowell was tagged for three runs allowed in four-plus innings, then three consecutive relievers failed to record an out.
Kaden Rylance walked two batters who came around to score, Tristan Augedahl gave up four hits and a walk and was tagged for six runs (five earned) and Austin Henry walked two batters and allowed a run.
Sam Novotny followed and allowed four earned runs and five runs total over his two innings of work.
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Matthew Werk and Jacob Sjuts each threw a scoreless inning to close out the contest.
Arizona State starter Kole Klecker ripped through the Jackrabbits’ lineup, allowing three hits in eight scoreless innings while striking out 13.
Keagan Jirschele doubled for South Dakota State, and Nic Werk and Luke Jones both singled. Nate Wachter and Grant Sorensen each drew a walk.
The Jackrabbits’ season ends with a 24-33 record. Arizona State will face the loser of No. 1 Nebraska vs. No. 2 Ole Miss.
