California
AP Decision Notes: What to expect in California’s state primary
WASHINGTON — Two candidates for California governor will emerge from a massive field of 61 hopefuls in a state primary on Tuesday, when voters will also select U.S. House nominees using a new map they approved in a 2025 ballot measure.
Also on the ballot is a long list of state and local contests, including a Los Angeles mayoral race where the Democratic incumbent mayor faces more than a dozen challengers. Among them is a former reality TV personality whose candidacy has caught the eye of another former reality TV personality, President Donald Trump.
California’s top-two primary format, where all candidates run on the same ballot regardless of party, has complicated the campaign calculus in several high-profile races, including the one to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. While Democratic candidates often welcome the opportunity to run head-to-head against a Republican in the dark blue state, the number of well-known Democrats in the race threatens to split the vote and inadvertently clear the path for two Republicans to advance to the general election, which would guarantee a Republican governor.
The Democratic field includes former U.S. health secretary Xavier Becerra, former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, billionaire 2020 presidential candidate Tom Steyer and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Republicans vying for the seat include Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, who has Trump’s endorsement.
Democrats Eric Swalwell and former state Controller Betty Yee will also appear on the ballot, although both have withdrawn from the race. Swalwell was a top contender in the campaign but withdrew on April 12 following sexual assault allegations he has denied. He resigned from Congress two days later.
In the race for control of the narrowly divided U.S. House, a new congressional map favorable to Democrats has complicated the reelection bids of several Republican House incumbents. Voters approved the new district boundaries in a Nov. 2025 referendum, which was a response to Trump’s initiative in Texas and other states to maximize the number of GOP seats heading into the fall midterm election.
In the 6th Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Kevin Kiley considered his limited options and left the Republican Party in March to run for reelection as an independent.
Republican U.S. Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim are competing against each other in the 40th Congressional District. Democrat Esther Kim Varet is one of several challengers hoping to snag one of two spots in the general election.
Also on the ballot is a special election in the 1st Congressional District to complete the term of the late Republican U.S. Rep. Doug LaMalfa, who died in January. The five-person field pits the Democratic state Senate President against the Republican state Assembly Minority Leader. If no candidate receives a vote majority, the top two finishers will compete one-on-one on Aug. 4. The winner will serve under the current district boundaries, not the new map going into effect in the next Congress.
A special election to fill Swalwell’s vacant 14th Congressional District seat will be held June 16, also under the current boundaries.
In the race for Los Angeles mayor, Democrat Karen Bass seeks a second term in the nonpartisan office against tech entrepreneur Adam Miller, former MTV reality show cast member Spencer Pratt, City Councilmember Nithya Raman and others. Trump recently said of Pratt, “I’d like to see him do well.”
Democrats have a significant advantage over Republicans in statewide races based on their overwhelming support in the populous areas surrounding Los Angeles, San Francisco, Sacramento and San Diego. Republicans tend to perform best in the more sparsely populated areas of northern California and the Central Valley, while running competitively in Southern California suburbs outside of Los Angeles and San Diego. A Republican has not won statewide office in California since 2006.
Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:
When do polls close?
Polls close at 8 p.m. PT, which is 11 p.m. ET.
What’s on the ballot?
The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in contested races for U.S. House, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, controller, treasurer, attorney general, insurance commissioner, state school superintendent, Board of Equalization, state Senate, State House, mayor of Long Beach, mayor of Los Angeles and Los Angeles County sheriff.
Who gets to vote?
Any registered voter in California may participate in the state primary.
How many voters are there?
As of April 3, there were about 23.1 million registered voters in California, including about 10.4 million Democrats, about 5.8 million Republicans and about 5.3 million not registered with any party.
How many people actually vote?
About 7.3 million votes were cast in the U.S. Senate primary in 2024, roughly a third of registered voters.
How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?
About 89% of vote in the 2024 U.S. Senate primary was cast before primary day.
As of Thursday, about 2.6 million ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election.
When are early and absentee votes released?
About four out of every five California counties release some or most of their results from mail voting in the first vote report of the night, usually before any in-person Election Day results are released. Almost half the counties release most or all of their in-person early voting results in the first vote report.
Since mail voting tends to favor Democrats and in-person Election Day voting tends to favor Republicans, the release of mail voting results at the start of the night could result in an early lead for Democratic candidates, while Republican candidates may narrow the gap as more Election Day results are counted.
How long does vote-counting usually take?
In the 2024 primaries, the AP first reported results at 11:08 p.m. ET, or eight minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 6:01 a.m. ET with about 52% of total votes counted. The count reached 99% of total votes about two weeks later on March 20 at 7:47 p.m. ET.
When will the AP declare a winner?
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
How do recounts work?
There are no automatic recounts in California. Any registered voter may request and pay for a recount. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there will be 14 days until the June 16 special primary in Congressional District 14, 63 days until the Aug. 4 special general election in Congressional District 1, 77 days until the Aug. 18 special general election in Congressional District 14 and 154 days until the Nov. 3 general election.
Copyright © 2026 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.
The body of singer Oliver Tree was back in California this weekend after he was listed as a passenger on a helicopter that crashed above Rio de Janeiro one week ago.
His social media accounts on Sunday afternoon announced the return of his body after the June 14 collision of two helicopters, which killed all six people on board.
“Oliver is now back in California where he can finally rest,” the post said.
According to The Associated Press, police identified the five other people as Gaspar Prim Díaz, a popular Argentine YouTuber known as Gaspi; another Argentine, Lucas Vignale; and Brazilians Lucas Brito, Charles Marsillac and Alexandre Souza.
The cause of the collision was under investigation. The AP reported last week that authorities were investigating the possibility of human error by a pilot or air traffic controllers.
Tree, 32, had been performing in South America as part of a world tour. He had a show scheduled for June 6 in São Paulo, according to a schedule on his Facebook page.
The post Sunday thanked fans and supporters for an outpouring of devotion to the memory of the quirky and uplifting artist.
“The constant love, support and positivity is helping the family, friends and collaborators make it through these extremely difficult times,” it said.
Tree, whose real name was Oliver Tree Nickell, was from Santa Cruz. His father, Jesse Nickell, said he learned of his son’s death from a producer working on music with him in Brazil.
“Peace be with Oliver,” he said by text last week.
Tree was recognizable for his bright fashion, mullet haircut with prominent bangs, thin mustache and encouraging outlook. A motto on his Instagram account says, “No matter how strange you think you look, no matter how ugly you feel, you are beautiful.”
Tree also worked with marquee names in pop and electronic dance music. His biggest tracks were “Life Goes On,” which peaked at 71 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2022, and “Miss You,” with German musician Robin Schulz, which peaked at 84 on the chart the same year.
Tree’s influence spread beyond chart data, however, and tributes poured in far and wide following last week’s news that he was on the passenger list of one of the aircraft.
The post on his social media accounts said he had been working on an endowment that would produce a grant and that the plan would be moving forward.
“‘Dr. Oliver Tree’s Extremely Epic Grant For Baby Geniuses’ coming soon,” the post said. “We will make sure his wish comes to fruition so that more joy, love and art can be spread into the world, that was his final wish.”
Speaking on the “Zack Sang Show” on YouTube in April, Tree discussed the grant and said his music was likely to be more valued after he died.
“That’s when people appreciate you, when you’re not there anymore,” he said.
The Instagram statement offered some assurance.
“Your legacy will live on forever,” it said.
California property owners can expect the nation’s steepest insurance premium hikes this year.
Nevertheless, that surge will leave California property owners paying below U.S. norms, according to my trusty spreadsheet‘s peek at a report by policy tracker Insurify. Its numbers reflect what private insurers charge to cover properties across all 50 states and Washington, D.C.
For Californians, that means an estimated 16% jump in premiums for 2026. It’s the biggest jump in the country, four times the 4% hike a typical American faces.
Years of rising property damage are largely behind this, with the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires as the latest example.
After California, Nebraska is seeing a 13% increase, followed by New Mexico at 11% and Georgia at 10%. Meanwhile, policies are actually getting cheaper in Hawaii and Massachusetts (down 2%) and Maine (down 1%).
Relative bargain
Please do not be mad at me for relaying this insurance math.
Even after the 2026 increase, California property insurance remains a relative bargain compared with the rest of the country.
Lower California rates are one reason why many property owners have trouble finding coverage. State insurance regulation has made it difficult for insurers to raise their rates, even as their costs and risks surge.
Owners who cannot obtain insurance coverage most often use the state’s FAIR Plan. Those premiums are expected to rise by 29% next year.
Note that Insurify projects the average annual premium in California for 2026 will be $2,843, ranking 21st-highest among all states.
Do you know of many housing-related expenses where you can say California prices are 7% below the national norm?
The most expensive premiums are found in Florida at $8,458 per year, followed by Oklahoma at $5,205, Louisiana at $5,035, Nebraska at $4,560 and Texas at $4,529. These states face high risks from hurricanes, tornadoes or hail.
The cheapest insurance is in Vermont at $1,094 annually, followed by Maine at $1,359 and Utah at $1,370.
Even cheaper?
Keep in mind, the average Californian is insuring a very expensive property.
California insurance policies commonly cover $488,000 in repairs, according to Insurify. This is the second-highest amount among the states and 43% above the national average of $342,000.
Only Hawaii is higher at $500,000. The lowest policy coverage is in Oklahoma at $292,000.
Stack up what homeowners pay against how much coverage they get, and California’s pricing looks even more reasonable.
This premium-to-coverage ratio indicates that the typical Californian pays 0.6% of the coverage offered. That ranks No. 30 among the states and is one-third below the nation’s 0.9% ratio.
The highest ratios are in Florida (2.6%), Oklahoma (1.8%), Louisiana (1.7%) and Texas (1.4%). The lows were in Vermont, Alaska, the District of Columbia, New Hampshire and New Jersey, all at 0.4% or less.
Loss likelihood
If you own property in California, you probably already know this, but here’s a reminder of a never-ending risk: natural disasters.
My trusty spreadsheet also reviewed data from various government and industry sources to see how often disasters strike – and how much those ugly events cost. The incidents tracked include wildfires, floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards and hail.
To grade the 50 states and the District of Columbia on their relative natural disaster risks, five measures were developed that account for the frequency and damage of calamities, weighted against population and geographic size.
When you add it all up, California ranks third for the likelihood of expensive disasters.
Florida is the riskiest state, followed by Hawaii, California, Louisiana and Tennessee.
If you want a safer place, consider Alaska, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, or Wisconsin.
Of course, this is just a simple way to look at a complex problem that befuddles property owners, insurance companies and policymakers alike.
Clearly, these aren’t just California headaches. One-third of Americans live in 10 states with the highest risk.
How often
The history of disasters offers us clues as to where the next one may hit.
Look at the five measures used to create the risk rankings, starting with how often these disasters actually happen.
Using the number of federal disasters declared over the past decade and dividing that by each state’s square miles, California comes in at No. 9.
By this measure, the most disaster-prone are D.C., Rhode Island, Hawaii, Connecticut and Washington state. The least are Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Alaska and Michigan.
Next is the number of major storms per square mile.
California is much lower on this list, ranking 41st. The stormiest are D.C., New Jersey, Maryland, Hawaii and Rhode Island. The calmest are Alaska, Oregon, Nevada, Utah and Idaho.
The price tag
Think about what it costs to clean up after disasters. This is a major driver of home insurance premiums.
First, look at the dollar amount of damages divided by the number of people in each state. California ranks ninth-highest for disaster costs per person.
The biggest bills? Louisiana, Hawaii, Texas, Florida and Colorado. The smallest? Delaware, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Jersey.
Next, check out the cost per storm. California’s disasters are the fifth most expensive.
The most expensive storms happen in Florida, Louisiana, Texas and Oregon. The least expensive are in Delaware, Montana, Wyoming, Rhode Island and Kentucky.
Finally, if you look at insurance losses per person, California ranks fourth highest.
The largest insurance losses are in Colorado, Nebraska and Florida. After California, Wyoming is next. The lowest losses are in Utah, Hawaii, Nevada, Alaska and Oregon.
Clearly, the property-loss odds are stacked against Californians.
Skipping the costs
Some property owners take one look at their insurance bill and decide to go without.
LendingTree, using Census housing cost data, estimates 11% of California property owners have no homeowner’s insurance policy.
That’s the 11th-lowest level of no coverage among the states. The national rate is 14%.
West Virginia has the highest share of owners without coverage at 24%, followed by New Mexico at 23% and Louisiana at 21%. The fewest uninsured homes are in Colorado, Oregon and New Hampshire at 10%.
So why do so many Californians still pay for coverage?
Contemplate the estimated California premium against statewide household income to see that the cost is relatively affordable.
This 2.8% insurance-cost burden ranks No. 25 among the states. It’s also one-fifth of the nation’s 3.6%.
The highest burden? Florida at 11%, and Louisiana and Oklahoma at 8%. Lows? Vermont, New Hampshire, Utah and Maine, all 1%.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
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California
California man arrested for impersonating bank official, coercing money from Colorado victim
A 25-year-old California man is charged with three felonies after intercepting a package in Colorado containing $11,000 in cash he allegedly obtained via a computer scam.
Earlier this year, a Mesa County resident contacted authorities after receiving a message. The sender reportedly claimed to be an employee of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The FDIC is an independent agency created by the Congress that insures and oversees the banking industry.
The resident claimed the purported FDIC representative stated the resident’s bank account had been compromised and needed to be secured. The resident was instructed to send cash from the account to an address in southern California, according to the Mesa County Sheriff’s Office.
The resident later chose to stop the shipment. But, according to the sheriff’s office, the box containing the cash was already in the process of being shipped.
A man later identified as Youbin Huang of El Monte, Calif., a Los Angeles suburb, came to the package’s location in Grand Junction and picked it up using documents which contained the Colorado resident’s personal information, per the sheriff’s office.
A nationwide warrant for Haung’s arrest was issued by the Mesa County Sheriff’s Office on Feb. 25. Huang was arrested by the California State Patrol on April 13, according to a press release from the sheriff’s office. Huang was brought to Colorado and booked into the Mesa County Detention Facility on May 10.
Huang is charged with theft, identity theft, and computer fraud, all felonies, and all state charges. He was advised June 11 and posted an $11,000 cash bond to obtain his release from jail that day. He has another court hearing on July 9.
The Mesa County Sheriff’s Office stated in its press release that Huang was “intimately involved in the perpetration of the scam.” It did not specifically state that Huang acted alone, nor if he was the person who impersonated an FDIC employee and communicated with the Colorado resident online.
MCSO recommended Coloradans never give out their personal or financial information to an unsolicited caller, allow remote access to their phones or computers, send gift cards or crypto currency as a form of payment, or send cash in the mail. As well, if they are unsure about what they are being asked to do, call law enforcement, family members, or a trusted friend to get advice.
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