GRAND FORKS, N.D. (KFYR) – The North Dakota Council on the Arts is launching Arts Across the Prairie. It’s a first-of-its-kind, statewide, public art program showcasing the cultural heritage of eight regions.

The council hopes to break ground on the Grand Forks installation later this summer.

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MINOT — The North Dakota Republican Party’s gubernatorial primary between Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller and U.S. Rep. Kelly Armstrong has been heated. Both candidates have spent furiously on promoting their campaigns, and at times

the rhetoric between the two has grown vicious.

But if polling just released to me by the Armstrong campaign is to be believed, the race isn’t particularly close. In a survey conducted by Guidant Polling & Strategy, which was conducted May 4-8, Armstrong has a commanding 41-point lead over Miller.

The survey shows Armstrong leading Miller among Republican primary voters 60% to 19%, with another 19% undecided. That lead remains consistent among voters aged 65+ (Armstrong 61%, Miller 19%), self-described conservative voters (Armstrong 62%, Miller 19%) and voters who say they have an established opinion of both candidates (Armstrong 64%, Miller 24%).

The poll suggests that voters view Armstrong far more favorably than they do Miller. Among likely Republican primary voters, Armstrong is viewed favorably by 69% of respondents, with just 19% having a negative view.

Miller, meanwhile, had mixed numbers. Just 32% of respondents said they view her favorably, 33% said they view her unfavorably, and after her campaign spent over $1.2 million on broadcast and cable television ads alone, 22% said they have no opinion of Miller.

“The last career politician who claimed to be up 40 points wound up losing in a landslide to Doug Burgum,” Miller spokesman Dawson Schefter told me in response to this poll. “Confident campaigns don’t release internal polls and spend hundreds of thousands of dollars falsely attacking their opponents. This is a clear attempt to spin the media from a candidate on the defensive about his record as a politician and trial lawyer. I’d put this poll in the trash where it belongs.”

To Schefter’s point, all polling released by a campaign should be taken with a grain of salt. Campaigns release polling data to serve their electoral agenda, not inform the public. We also don’t have any independent and publicly available polling to filter our perception of Armstrong’s numbers.

But that doesn’t mean these numbers are wrong. While I’m not sure I would have guessed that Armstrong’s lead was this prodigious, I have felt for some time that the congressman is winning. Armstrong’s poll strikes me as accurate. Or, at least, in the ballpark. The poll does jibe with information about other polls from independent sources that have been shared with me, though I wasn’t made privy to the specific details.

Gov. Doug Burgum, who is backing Miller’s campaign (though not quite as ardently as I had expected; more on that in a moment), might rebut these numbers by alluding, as Schefter did, to polling in the 2016 gubernatorial primary,

which showed him down 49 points

to Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem roughly a month after he announced his campaign. Burgum, of course, went on to win the primary in a landslide by nearly 21 points.

Burgum was fond of touting that poll during his long-shot presidential bid earlier this political cycle, but I’m not sure it’s an apt comparison for Miller. That poll was released in early March. It’s currently mid-May, with primary day looming on June 11. Also, remember that 2016 was the year of the outsider. It was the year Donald Trump stormed through the Republican primary to the White House. Burgum cast himself as a political outsider that cycle, and whatever the truth of the claim, the voters bought it. But that was eight years ago.

Miller’s campaign has seemed like a copy-and-paste of Burgum’s 2016 effort, right down to the buzzwords and much of the personnel. Only, it’s not 2016 anymore, and Miller, for all her personal achievements and compelling characteristics, isn’t Burgum.

The lazy analysis of Burgum’s political success assumes his money is the difference maker. And, don’t get me wrong, Burgum’s ability and willingness to spend gobs on his political agenda matters, but crediting his success to spending overlooks the fact that he’s always been a strong candidate. He’s warm and charismatic in person. He can work a room. He knows how to win people over on a personal level.

Burgum’s campaign strategies can be hit-and-miss. For example, he spent millions trying to sway legislative races as governor,

and the results were decidedly mixed.

But when Burgum himself is the candidate, when he’s personally engaged and not just spending money on ads and mailers, his success rate is much higher.

One thing we’ve learned about Miller during the campaign process is that she’s uncomfortable with in-person retail politics, and I think that’s cost her.

So, too, has Burgum’s absence on the campaign trail. We’ve all witnessed the spectacle of our current governor campaigning for a spot in a second Trump administration, be it as vice president or a cabinet position. That project has kept Burgum out of state a lot and left him with little time outside of gubernatorial duties to devote to Miller’s campaign.

In summary, how accurate is this poll? Though I wish we had publicly available independent polling corroborating the results, my gut tells me it’s fairly close to reality. Which isn’t to say that Miller can’t move the needle between now and June 11.

A North Dakota judge on Thursday ordered a state lawmaker to serve 250 hours of community service and pay a $2,500 fine after a jury convicted him of a misdemeanor in connection with a controversial state-leased building he has an ownership in.

State District Judge Bobbi Weiler also ordered Republican Rep. Jason Dockter, of Bismarck, to pay $325 in court fees, undergo fingerprinting and serve 360 days of unsupervised probation. She also granted him a deferred imposition, meaning the conviction will be taken off his record if he doesn’t violate probation.

A jury on May 3 convicted Dockter of speculating or wagering on official action. The misdemeanor charge is punishable up to 360 days in jail and/or a $3,000 fine. Complaints to the state Ethics Commission led to Dockter’s charging in December 2023. He pleaded not guilty.

JURY CONVICTS NORTH DAKOTA LAWMAKER OF MISDEMEANOR SPECULATION

Dockter, 50, is a co-owner of companies that own and worked on the building leased by the late Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem in 2020. The two were friends, but Dockter has denied any wrongdoing in the lease arrangement. The building drew scrutiny when Stenehjem’s successor, Attorney General Drew Wrigley, disclosed a construction cost overrun of over $1 million incurred under Stenehjem. The overrun was an unpleasant surprise to state lawmakers, who raised concerns about trust and transparency.

A criminal complaint alleged that, as a member of the North Dakota House of Representatives, Dockter voted “on legislative bills appropriating money to pay for property he had acquired a pecuniary interest in,” against state law and legislative rules.

Prosecutor Ladd Erickson had recommended a one-year deferred imposition with $325 in court fees and fingerprinting. He also said in a court document that the Ethics Commission “is the proper body to issue any additional penalties beyond” his recommended sentence. An investigation by the ethics panel was paused by Dockter’s charge, and it can resume after sentencing, Erickson wrote.

Defense attorney Lloyd Suhr agreed with Erickson’s recommendation, citing Dockter’s lack of criminal history and his family and local ties, and saying he deserves to be treated the same as similar first-time misdemeanor offenders.

Dockter declined to comment regarding the sentence. The judge chastised him for that.

“The reason I wanted to hear something from you is I look at this as the citizens of North Dakota being the victims and being taken advantage of, and I didn’t hear an apology from you to the citizens, and I’m a little disappointed in that,” Weiler said.

The judge said, “I don’t know how more direct and unique it gets,” regarding the lease situation, a reference to a House rule that members shall disclose personal or private interests on bills that affect him or her “directly, individually, uniquely, and substantially,” and may not vote without the House’s consent.

“My biggest concern is you don’t think it’s substantial,” Weiler said.

She granted the deferred imposition, but she added the community service hours and fine as stipulations, based on the $250,000 she said he “made off the citizens of North Dakota” by voting on a two-year budget bill last year.

“I was trying to find a way to hopefully help you understand so that we’re not seeing this again,” Weiler said.

Dockter must fulfill the community service with the homeless community within six months, or about 10 hours a week, the judge said.

“Maybe you can see how the other side lives, Mr. Dockter,” Weiler said.

“I’ll take whatever it is you’re giving me,” Dockter told the judge after she asked if he had any questions. He met with loved ones on the courthouse steps afterward.

Suhr said the judge “was well within her discretion and largely accepted the recommendations of the parties” on sentencing.

Republican House Majority Leader Mike Lefor has said he disagrees with the jury’s verdict and plans to review the statute and rules involved.

On Wednesday, Lefor wrote to Republican Rep. Emily O’Brien, chair of the Legislative Audit and Fiscal Review Committee, in a letter “to direct the committee to study the legislative rules, ethics rules, state statutory provisions, and constitutional provisions relating to potential conflicts of interest by a public official.”

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Democratic House Minority Leader Zac Ista called on Dockter to resign after the verdict. Dockter said he has not yet made decisions about whether to appeal or resign.

“It’s just so fresh right now,” he said.