Missouri Republicans experienced something this past weekend that has been missing from prior Lincoln Days events: Calm.

After years of bruising primary battles and infighting within the Missouri General Assembly, Republican activists and elected officials used the party’s largest gathering of the year to bask in their electoral good fortune. Republicans hold every statewide office and commanding majorities in the General Assembly.

And some of Gov. Mike Kehoe’s big agenda items are moving quickly through a legislature that’s getting along better than in recent years. That includes crime legislation that would bring back a gubernatorial board overseeing the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department.

“If you want us to be able to keep getting this agenda done, if you want us to do all the things we’ve talked about tonight, we absolutely have to hold it,” Kehoe said Saturday at the event in Maryland Heights. “The only way we can hold it is if this party and all of the counties that you represent stick together.”

There’s only one statewide race on the ballot next year: State auditor. And Democrats would need to field a candidate who can raise millions of dollars and turn around years of decline in rural and suburban counties to have a chance to unseat incumbent Scott Fitzpatrick.

Instead, Missouri Republican Party Chairman Peter Kinder said the party’s focus will be defending several open state Senate seats — including two in the Kansas City metropolitan area and one that encompasses Springfield.

“I think the left-wingers have targeted Missouri in a multi-stage, multi-year effort to turn us in their direction — to defeat Republican majorities in the House and Senate, and to take us back to a left-wing, Democrat-dominated state,” Kinder said. “And we are just not going to let that happen.”

Trump fatigue?

One of the big reasons Missouri Republicans may have to be on guard against complacency is historical precedent. Typically, the president’s political party does worse in midterm elections.

“We’ve got to make sure that people are not falling asleep and that they are staying involved,” said St. Louis County Councilman Mark Harder. “They’re staying engaged on the issues, understand the candidates, the few that will be running, and get behind these people.”

While it’s still early in Trump’s second term, his initial actions — particularly cutting federal workers and implementing tariffs — are facing some backlash. U.S. Rep. Mark Alford, R-Cass County, recently faced an angry town hall meeting.

And U.S. Rep. Bob Onder, R-St. Charles County, said that there will be some missteps along the way, especially when Trump and billionaire Elon Musk are trying to drastically reshape the size and scope of government.

“I think Musk and DOGE would be the first to admit that in some cases, something might get caught or someone might get laid off that, in retrospect, was a mistake,” said Onder, referring to the Department of Government Efficiency that Musk has championed since Trump took office. “But I think what would be worse is if we didn’t make the attempt to cut out waste and fraud and abuse.”

Others at Lincoln Days pointed out some of the potentially attractive things that occurred since Trump returned to the White House.

U.S. Sen. Eric Schmitt, R-Missouri, cited how illegal border crossings plummeted since Trump took office.

“As I said a year ago, you just needed a new president,” Schmitt said.

Eye on Amendment 3 redo

While Missouri Republicans had a solid 2024 election cycle from a candidate perspective, they did experience one major electoral failure: The passage of a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights.

That measure, known as Amendment 3, paved the way for a Jackson County judge striking down scores of abortion restrictions — including the near total ban on the procedure, licensing requirements, and a 72-hour waiting period. Abortions resumed in Kansas City and Columbia, though Planned Parenthood’s St. Louis clinic is awaiting approval of a complication plan before offering medication abortions at its Central West End Clinic.

Missouri Republicans have vowed to put something on the ballot, likely in 2026, that would repeal and replace Amendment 3. A Senate committee recently approved a constitutional amendment that would ban abortions except in the case of rape, incest and if a mother’s life is in danger.

Fitzpatrick said while Missouri Republicans are united in their desire to get something on the ballot to undo Amendment 3, they’re still working through the details of their replacement plan.

“At the end of the day, the voters are going to decide this issue. It’s in the Constitution,” Fitzpatrick said. “I’m sure the Democrats are going to say: ‘Well, you know, the people have spoken. You have to let the will of the will of the people stand.’ The people can vote on this every two years, forever, if we want them to. And it’s still going to be the will of the people.”

“I think that is probably going to be the other big thing that’s going to be that everybody in the state is going to be looking at and voting on,” he added.

Can the GOP finally break through in St. Louis County?

This year’s Lincoln Days took place in St. Louis County, one of the few areas of the state Republicans lost ground in during the Trump era.

Thanks to Trump’s perennially weak position among some suburban voters, parts of St. Louis County that were previously fairly Republican-leaning — such as Kirkwood and western areas — became reliably blue. And after nearly capturing the county executive’s office in 2014, St. Louis County Republicans have continuously fallen short in elections for that job.

Republicans are hoping for a different outcome next year, when St. Louis County Executive Sam Page will be up for another term.

Councilman Dennis Hancock, R-Fenton, told St. Louis Public Radio on Saturday he plans to forgo another term on the County Council and run for county executive instead.

“We have serious problems in St. Louis County, where we’re not attracting new businesses, we’re losing population, and we’ve seen our crime rates not getting better,” Hancock said. “And so, we just need to have a different voice and a different perspective in the county executive’s office. And I think it’s time for people to take a fresh look at what a conservative Republican might have to offer.”

Hancock spent 12 years as the mayor of Fenton. He won a county council seat that includes municipalities such as Kirkwood, Town & Country and Des Peres in 2022. He pointed out that even when Democrats won up and down the ballot in St. Louis County that year, Page had a relatively weak showing against Republican Mark Mantovani.

Still, Hancock will likely face some criticism of his own during the campaign. He dealt with a nepotism controversy over an attempt to hire his stepdaughter as his assistant. He admitted he made a mistake, but noted that St. Louis County Prosecutor Melissa Price Smith dropped the legal proceedings against him.

Councilwoman Shalonda Webb and state Sen. Brian Williams are both mulling primary challenges against Page. Though some GOP attendees at Lincoln Days said Page may survive a primary if multiple candidates run against him.

Still, Hancock said he will be an attractive alternative if Page isn’t his opponent next year.

“What I have that they don’t have is 12 years as a chief executive of a city,” he said.

Kentucky ended the regular season on Saturday with a 91-83 win on the road against the #15 Missouri Tigers. At first, it wasn’t going as planned. Missouri’s defensive pressure seemed to have Kentucky really out of rhythm on offense, where the Tigers went up 11-4 with just under 12 minutes left in the first half. Then, the Wildcats were able to stay with the Tigers, as they took advantage of a Missouri scoring drought that lasted over two minutes, where an 11-0 run helped give the offense the spark it needed.

During that time when the offense was struggling, it was the defense that kept the Wildcats from being out of the game early. The 11-0 run, thanks to a scoring drought from Missouri, was the turning point that gave Kentucky’s offense a boost that ultimately helped them for much of the game. Mark Pope says Kentucky used their defense early to ‘stay afloat’ with the struggles their offense was having.

“They had us really uncomfortable on the offensive end to start the game. I was really proud of our guys because we talked about in the timeouts like, ‘Hey, it’s ok because our defense is going to keep us afloat.’ For us in that run to just be able to trust our defense, trust that we know we don’t feel great on the other side of the ball, but we will eventually get there, for these guys to step up and make tough, physical plays on the defensive end and kind of keep us alive was incredibly encouraging.”

– Pope on the early stretch of the game.

That decision ultimately proved to be right, as Kentucky’s offense really got hot after that early stretch, shooting 11-20 from three on the night. led by Koby Brea who went 3-5 from deep. On the defensive end, Kentucky had 20 points off of 10 Missouri turnovers, including 7 steals. Along with his team-high 22 points, Otega Oweh had 3 steals, coming up big on the defensive end. Another highlight from the stat sheet was Andrew Carr’s double-double with 16 points and 12 rebounds. They were catalysts in Kentucky’s efforts.

Kentucky using their defense early to lean on, given their tremendous improvements there over the last couple of weeks certainly bodes well for the postseason. It’s good to know when the offense isn’t clicking, the Wildcats can lean on the other side of the ball.

There is good news heading into Saturday’s regular-season finale at the Missouri Tigers. The Kentucky Wildcats will for sure have a bye in the SEC Tournament. The Wildcats can be no lower than the No. 8 seed next week in Nashville.

Still, though, Saturday’s game at Missouri is highly important. Win this game, and Kentucky can move up to as high as the No. 5 seed in the SEC Tournament. More importantly, a win would guarantee Kentucky won’t have to see No. 1 Auburn until at least the Semifinals next week.

Missouri, though, is going to pose a big challenge. After going winless in SEC play last season, the Tigers have had an incredible turnaround this season. They have 21 wins coming into Saturday, including 10 in the SEC. The Tigers are an incredible offensive team, ranking fourth in the SEC in scoring (84.6 points per game) and being tied with Kentucky for the SEC lead in three-point field goal percentage (37.3%).

This Tigers team has depth. Eight players have at least five points per game, and nine players shoot at least 45 percent from the field. Four players shoot 40 percent or better from three-point range.

It is going to be a battle on Saturday, but that’s what March is full of; battles.

Let’s look at Players to Watch on the Missouri Tigers ahead of Saturday’s game.

Players to Watch

1. #31. Caleb Grill 6’3” 205 lbs. Gr. Guard Wichita, Kan. Iowa State Transfer
Stats: 14.4 pts, 3.8 rebs, 50% FG, 42.6 3-PT FG%, 85.7 FT%, 25.4 mpg

One of the top shooters in the SEC, Grill is in his second season with Missouri. He previously played at Iowa State for three seasons, with a season at UNLV sandwiched in between his two stints in Ames, Iowa.

Grill missed the final 23 games last season with an injury, but he still managed to finish as the Tigers leading rebounder at 5.8 per game. Keep in mind, that was a Missouri team that went 0-18 in SEC play.

This season, Grill is one of the conference’s best shooters on a top 15 Missouri team. The Tigers leading scorer, Grill has actually been increasing his scoring average throughout the course of the season. It started way back in mid-November with a 33-point performance against Eastern Washington, and those performances have continued into the gauntlet of SEC play.

Grill has six games in SEC play with 20+ points, including three in his last five. That stretch also includes a 25-point, 10-rebound double-double against Alabama on February 19th. In addition, Grill has five games in SEC play with four+ three-pointers including two with six.

Overall this season, Grill has four games with six+ three-pointers with a season-high eight against Eastern Washington.

Missouri is 7-1 in games where Grill has made at least four three-pointers.

2. #25. Mark Mitchell 6’9” 230 lbs. Jr. Guard/Forward Kansas City, Kan. Duke Transfer
Stats: 14.1 pts, 4.6 rebs, 25 blk, 50.5 FG%, 22.9 3-PT FG%, 66.8 FT%, 27.7 mpg

A key reason for Missouri’s impressive turnaround is the acquisition of Mitchell in the transfer portal this past offseason. Mitchell ranked as high as the nation’s No. 7 transfer according to CBS Sports, and that came after he started 67 games over two seasons at Duke.

Mitchell was a key part of Duke’s first two seasons, with Jon Scheyer taking over as head coach following Mike Krzyzewski retiring. The Blue Devils won 54 games over the last two seasons, including the ACC Tournament in 2023 and a run to the Elite Eight in 2024. Named to the Julius Erving Small Forward of the Year Watch List, Mitchell scored 700 points and averaged over 10 points per game in his two seasons in Durham.

This season, Mitchell has six games with multiple blocks. That includes three straight games in early-mid December with three blocks each, including against then-No. 1 Kansas on December 8th.

Mitchell has five 20-point games this season, including three in his past seven games. Against Alabama on Feb. 19th, Mitchell scored 31 points in 32 minutes on 11-15 shooting from the field. Talk about efficiency.

Don’t let his free-throw percentage make you think he’s a good player to send to the charity stripe in crucial situations. Over his last seven games, Mitchell is 48-64 from the free-throw line. That’s 75 percent, which is pretty good.

Mitchell has played 30+ minutes 11 times in SEC play, including 41 in an overtime win at Vanderbilt this past Saturday.

3. #2. Tamar Bates 6’5” 195 lbs. Sr. Guard Kansas City, Kan. Indiana Transfer
Stats: 13.1 pts, 2.7 rebs, 51.3 FG%, 40.7 3-PT FG%, 93.7 FT%, 25.5 mpg

Bates is in his second season with the Tigers after ranking second on the team with 13.5 points per game last season. He also set a Missouri record by hitting 92.6% of his free throws.

In his second season this year, Bates has four games with 20+ points. Those games have come against then-No. 1 Kansas and SEC opponents. Bates also has nine games with three or more three-pointers, with two games making four three-pointers.

Prior to Missouri, Bates played two seasons at Indiana and helped lead the Hoosiers to two NCAA Tournaments and 44 combined wins. Bates scored over 330 points and hit 54 three-pointers over those two seasons.

4. #0. Anthony Robinson II 6’3” 180 lbs. So. Guard Tallahassee, Fla.
Stats: 9.4 pts, 3.1 rebs, 102 ast.-48 TO, 60 stl, 50.3 FG%, 43.5 3-PT FG%, 77% FT, 23.1 mpg

Robinson is Missouri’s leader in assists and steals in just his second season with the team. He has started all but two games this season and has scored in double figures in five of his last seven games.

Robinson has 10 games with five+ assists and 17 games with multiple steals, including 13 with three+ steals. He’s also a solid shooter from beyond the arc, with multiple three-pointers in five SEC games.

5. #12. Tony Perkins 6’4” 200 lbs. Gr. Guard Indianapolis, Ind.
Stats: 8.1 pts, 2.4 rebs, 46.5 FG%, 30% 3-PT FG, 74.7 FT%, 23 mpg

Perkins comes to Missouri after playing at Iowa four four seasons, where he was named to the All-Big Ten Second Team in 2024 and Honorable Mention in 2023. This is another key piece to Missouri’s revival this season, as Perkins was ranked as high as the nation’s No. 13 transfer by CBS Sports. In his four seasons at Iowa, Perkins scored nearly 1,200 points and pulled down nearly 400 rebounds with over 300+ assists, one of just three Hawkeyes in history to have 1,100+ points, 375+ rebounds, 300+ assists and 130+ steals.

This season, Perkins has started each of the last 22 games he’s played in and has scored in double figures six times in SEC play. Perkins has played 30+ minutes six times this season.

6. #11. Trent Pierce 6’10” 220 lbs. So. Guard/Forward Tulsa, Okla.
Stats: 7.1 pts, 3.4 rebs, 46.7 FG%, 32.3 3-PT FG%, 59.3 FT%, 17.7 mpg

Although Pierce hasn’t scored in double figures in each of his last 12 games, he does have seven games this season with double-digit points. That includes 24 points and five three-pointers against LIU back in mid-December.

Pierce can impact the game in multiple ways. Over a stretch where he has started 16 straight games, Pierce has five+ rebounds in seven of those games and seven times has played 20+ minutes. He’s a good depth piece for a Missouri team that has a lot of it.

7. #1. Marques Warrick 6’3” 190 lbs. Gr. Guard Lexington, Ky. Northern Kentucky Transfer
Stats: 6.5 pts, 0.9 rebs, 48.2 FG%, 43.5 3-PT FG%, 80.6 FT%, 13.7 mpg

A Lexington, Kentucky native, Warrick has been, perhaps, the biggest key to Missouri’s bounce-back season. Warrick entered this season as the country’s active leader in points with 2,246. He was one of just 10 players the last two seasons to score 600+ points in both seasons, and he’s the all-time leading scorer in Norse history while also ranking seventh in Horizon League history. Warrick is also Henry Clay High School’s all-time leader with 1,909 career points.

Warrick has eight games with double-digit points this season, including four in SEC play. He also has five games with three+ three-pointers, including three games with four three-pointers.

8. #35. Jacob Crews 6’8” 210 lbs. Gr. Guard/Forward Hilliard, Fla. UT Martin Transfer
Stats: 5.4 pts, 2 rebs/gm., 37.8 FG%, 34.7 3-PT FG%, 14-18 FT, 12.4 mpg

One of just two players in the nation last year, along with Creighton’s Baylor Scheierman with 600+ points, 250+ rebounds and 85+ three-pointers, Crews brings an excellent shooting pedigree to a Missouri team that is a really good shooting team themselves.

Crews averaged 19.1 points per game at UT Martin last season, and he was named to the All-Ohio Valley Conference First-Team. He also has 8.2 rebounds per game last season.

Crews has four games with three+ three-pointers and five games scoring double-digits. He’s also played 20+ minutes twice on the season. Three of his games with double-digit points are in his last eight overall.

9. #33. Josh Gray 7’0” 260 lbs. Gr. Center Brooklyn, N.Y. South Carolina Transfer
Stats: 3.3 pts, 5.1 rebs, 57.1 FG%, 1-3 3-PT FG, 56.6 FT%, 15.6 mpg

Gray comes over after three seasons in South Carolina, where he played in 88 games with 375 rebounds, over 300 points and 62 blocks. He also led the Gamecocks in rebounding in 2022 and 2023.

Gray has five games this season with double-digit rebounds, including a double-double at Mississippi State back on February 1st.

Gray started the first 14 games of the season for Missouri, including the SEC opener at Auburn, and has played 20+ minutes seven times this season.

Head Coach: Dennis Gates (3rd season)

Gates has done an unbelievable job this season with the Missouri Tigers. Missouri finished 0-18 in the SEC last season. Just one season removed from that, Gates his Missouri at 21-9 and 10-7 in the best SEC conference of all time.

Missouri went to the NCAA Tournament in 2023, Gates’s first season with the Tigers. They advanced to the Round of 32 before falling to Cinderella Princeton.

Prior to Missouri, Gates led Cleveland State for three seasons and took the Vikings to the NCAA Tournament in 2021. The Vikings won two Horizon League regular-season titles, and Gates was a two-time Horizon League Coach of the Year.

Gates had extensive experience as an assistant, including an eight-season run at Florida State on Leonard Hamilton’s staff. The Seminoles went to seven NCAA Tournaments in those eight seasons, going to the Elite Eight in 2018 and the Sweet 16 in 2019. The Seminoles also won the ACC Tournament Championship in 2012. Gates also served as a graduate assistant at Florida State in 2004-2005.

In addition to Florida State, Gates was also an assistant at Nevada, Northern Illinois, California, and Marquette. Gates also served as a skill development coach for the Los Angeles Clippers in the 2002-2003 Season.

Gates played at California for four seasons and was on the Bears 2002 NCAA Tournament team.

Keys to the Game

1. Whatever worked on Tuesday, keep doing that Saturday: It’s so simple, right? Kentucky dominated LSU on Tuesday night and looked really good in doing so. If they simply carry that performance over into Saturday afternoon, they can win this game against a really good Missouri team.

2. Pressure the ball: Missouri is a really good three-point shooting team. One way to stymie that is to pressure the ball and prevent the Tigers from moving it to create open looks. Lamont Butler holds the key to Kentucky’s defense in this game. We saw him stymie Tennessee’s Zagai Ziegler back in mid-February, and he’ll have to do that again against Anthony Robinson II on Saturday. Do that, and that will prevent Robinson from getting Caleb Grill, Mark Mitchell, Tamar Bates, and others from getting into a rhythm.

3. Take care of the ball: We saw on Tuesday that good things happen when the Wildcats take care of the ball. The starting five on Tuesday- Otega Oweh, Lamont Butler, Koby Brea, Andrew Carr, and Amari Williams- moved the ball really well. That freed up Brea for multiple open looks from three-point range while also creating great looks from three-point range for multiple other players. Taking care of the ball can lead to open looks on Saturday, and the Wildcats may have to knock down a lot of them to match Missouri’s high-octane three-point offense.

Score Prediction: Wildcats 94 – Tigers 91

Mark Pope said after the game on Tuesday that having the same starting five carry over in consecutive games finally allows them the opportunity again to get better heading into Postseason play. I think that leads to a massive win on Saturday and gives the Wildcats momentum heading into the SEC Tournament.

The Wildcats played with a vengeance on Tuesday against LSU. If they carry that vengeance mentality into Saturday, they can beat this Missouri team and be a team nobody will want to play in the SEC and NCAA Tournaments.