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Tracking the heat dome: Short and long-term impacts for Minnesota

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Tracking the heat dome: Short and long-term impacts for Minnesota


It is time to take a meteorological time period that we packed away for the winter out of storage: warmth dome. It is a naturally occurring climate function each summer time in numerous components of the world, and it simply so occurs to be getting ready to arrange store over Minnesota. 

When temps surge into the 90s this coming Tuesday, it could be an early symptom of the bigger sample taking form for the remainder of June into a lot of July. Nothing is ready in stone, nevertheless it’s wanting like a feverishly sizzling few weeks forward. 

Monitoring the warmth dome

Our upcoming warmth dome is creating within the Desert Southwest and shall be breaking information in areas which can be used to warmth, like Las Vegas.

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The warmth dome will then push east, giving Minnesota a quick style as temps Tuesday soar into the 90s.

The document excessive for Tuesday is 98, set again within the scorching 1987 summer time. An upper-level low (cool air aloft) will spark off storms and provides us a break from the 90s Wednesday into Friday, forcing the warmth dome to compress south.

Ensure that to take a breath and are available up for air as a result of even hotter air probably units in subsequent weekend, June 18-19, as the warmth dome might basically middle itself over the area. 

That’s the factor with warmth domes: they will proceed to increase and get hotter all through June and July, and given the fitting circumstances a warmth dome can turn out to be the dominant climate function/sample for an space.

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Might Minnesota have a uncommon 100-degree day in June?

Hitting 100 levels in Minnesota would not occur all that always irrespective of the time of 12 months, nevertheless it’s occurred within the Twin Cities simply seven instances in June within the record-keeping period. The final time it occurred was June 7, 2011, when the temp rose to a blistering 103 within the Twin Cities. 

No matter month, the Twin Cities has hit 100 simply 5 instances within the final 30 years: 

  • Could 28, 2018: 100 levels
  • July 6, 2012: 102 levels
  • July 4, 2012: 101 levels
  • June 7, 2011: 103 levels
  • July 31, 2006: 101 levels
  • July 13, 1995: 101 levels

Primarily based on the most recent fashions, there’s a couple of 20% likelihood we attain 100 within the subsequent 10 days, with June 18-19 seemingly one of the best probabilities for it to occur. Climatologically there’s a couple of 10% likelihood, so the percentages are in favor of NOT hitting 100 however the fashions recommend it is about twice as doable as a standard June. 

Lengthy vary warmth?

The priority I’ve in the long run over the subsequent a number of weeks is that this warmth dome will proceed to dominate the central U.S. climate. This isn’t set in stone but however the fashions are hinting at big-time warmth. The European mannequin is probably the most aggressive with the warmth and dry climate.

The above graphic exhibits temperature anomalies (distinction from regular) forecasted from the European mannequin for June 11 by way of July 25.

The Twin Cities space is forecast to have common temperatures of +3 levels F above regular (once more that is the European mannequin, which is the warmest state of affairs at current). That will not sound like lots, however our commonplace deviation in common temperatures for June and July is barely 2.5 levels, in order that’s greater than 1 entire commonplace deviation above regular. This is the reason we stress that simply 1 or 2 or 3 levels in local weather change has huge impacts. Let’s have a look at an instance for us.

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A regular deviation hotter than common for June and July would end in a doubling of the variety of 90-degree days. That’s as a result of whenever you improve a mean for a pile of knowledge (on this case highs and lows averaged over two months nearly) you exponentially improve the extremes.

Keep in mind, a warmth dome by definition can also be dry as a result of stability inside it. This could coincide with beneath regular rainfall in areas which can be topic to its affect. For that reason, the European mannequin (in addition to the others) are forecasting beneath regular precipitation on this similar interval.

So we could go from a really moist spring with document excessive water ranges into no less than a really dry interval, if not doable drought for some areas.

Local weather change finger prints?

This can be a good place to segue into the impression of local weather change. We simply talked about how a mean of two to three levels (F) doubles the variety of 90s (excessive sort temperatures for us). June common temperatures have warmed 2.1 levels (F) within the final century for the Twin Cities. Once more, that doesn’t sound like lots, nevertheless it’s 0.8 commonplace deviations, which is a huge impact. Such a shift makes one thing that will have had a likelihood of two% a century in the past now 13%, or greater than a six-fold improve. 

By that math alone we will (in a simplistic state of affairs) state {that a} warmth wave like this or any sizzling excessive in June/July has been made 6.5 instances extra seemingly on account of local weather change, all due to that 2.1 levels F warming.

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Pinpointing one particular climate occasion is advanced and fast attribution research at the moment are completed to find out the local weather change impacts on occasions. We all know for instance that climate disasters have elevated by 5 instances within the U.S. The Pacific Northwest warmth wave final June was made 150 instances extra seemingly on account of local weather change and the latest warmth wave in India has been decided to be 100 instances extra seemingly on account of local weather change.

So, whereas warmth waves are a standard a part of summer time, they’re turning into longer and extra intense and extra frequent on account of our warming of the planet. These impacts spill into water assets and hearth seasons in locations like California and Australia. Along with stopping additional catastrophic, future warming we additionally must adapt to this new actuality, particularly in cities and desert areas to stop lack of life and catastrophe. 

What’s a warmth dome?

What’s a warmth dome? It sounds extra fancy than it’s. Merely put, it’s an space of excessive strain aloft that compresses air downward (heating it up and stopping clouds, precipitation from creating). Which means intense sunshine heats up and dries out the air and soil an increasing number of over days or even weeks. The heating migrates by way of your entire ambiance creating a really steady airmass (i.e. little likelihood of creating storms).

Warmth domes are seasonal. You want intense solar (Could by way of July within the northern hemisphere, November by way of January within the southern hemisphere) and sometimes they start over arid areas. In america this happens over locations like Texas or the Desert Southwest. Within the southern hemisphere they develop over components of inside Africa and Australia. 

It’s no coincidence that the most important deserts happen close to areas of 30 levels north or south latitude. That is the place dominant areas of excessive strain routinely kind as air descends after rising from thunderstorms nearer to the equator. We name these ‘hadley cells’ in meteorology.

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These belts of circulation are necessary to understanding international circulation.

Principally warmth waves / warmth domes develop seasonally with intense solar in areas which can be already susceptible to excessive strain. They then develop and increase till atmospheric circulation (just like the jet stream) transfer them into different areas just like the Midwest or the East, and so on.

BMTN Observe: Climate occasions in isolation cannot at all times be pinned on local weather change, however the broader development of more and more extreme climate and record-breaking extremes seen in Minnesota and throughout the globe could be attributed on to the quickly warming local weather attributable to human exercise. The IPCC has warned that Earth is “firmly on observe towards an unlivable world,” and says greenhouse fuel emissions have to be halved by 2030 with a purpose to restrict warming to 1.5C, which might forestall probably the most catastrophic results on humankind. You possibly can learn extra right here.



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Minnesota Politicians Form Presidential Recommendations Committee

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Minnesota Politicians Form Presidential Recommendations Committee


WASHINTON D.C. (WJON News) — Four Minnesota politicians have formed a committee to recommend candidates to President Donald Trump.

Congressmen Tom Emmer, Pete Stauber, Brad Finstad, and Congresswoman Michelle Fischbach announced the formation of the committee to help recommend candidates for U.S. Attorney, U.S. Marshal, and other vacancies that may come up in Minnesota.

U.S. Capitol In Washington

Stefan Zaklin, Getty Images

The lawmakers say the committee’s members are some of the sharpest legal minds in Minnesota and they have a wealth of experience and expertise. The committee will be chaired by former Minnesota Supreme Court Justice Barry Anderson. The full committee will be:

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Barry Anderson (Chair), former Minnesota Supreme Court Justice
David Asp, Partner at Lockridge Grindal Nauen PLLP
John Hinderaker, President of the Center of the American Experiment
Allie Howell, Trial, and Appellate Counsel at the Upper Midwest Law Center
Tad Jude, a former judge in Minnesota’s Tenth Judicial District

U.S. Senate Votes On Amendments To Inflation Reduction Act Over The Weekend

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Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings Week 12 Game Day Preview

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Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings Week 12 Game Day Preview


Minnesota Vikings (8-2) at Chicago Bears (4-6)

Kickoff: Noon, Sunday

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago

TV: Fox (Kevin Kugler, Daryl Johnston, Laura Okmin)

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Radio: ESPN AM-1000 (Jeff Joniak, Tom Thayer, Jason McKie)

Spanish Radio: Latino Mix 93.5 FM (Omar Ramos, Miguel Esparza)

The Line: Vikings by 3 1/2, over/under 39 1/2 (Fan Duel).

Chicago Bears On SI Pick: Vikings 23, Bears 8

The Series: The teams meet for the 126th time. The Vikings hold a 66-58-2 series lead. The Bears have lost five of the last six even though they won the last game 12-10 at Minnesota. They are 33-27-2 at home in the series.

The Coaches: Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell owns a 28-17 record in his third season. He is 3-1 against the Bears and 14-8 on the road overall.

Bears coach Matt Eberflus owns a 14-30 record in his third season and a 1-3 mark against Minnesota. The Bears have an 11-12 record in home games under Eberflus.

The Teams: The Bears come off their second walk-off shocker of the season, losing to Green Bay on a blocked Cairo Santos 46-yard field goal try, 20-19, for their fourth straight defeat. They now try to stop Minnesota (8-2), a team surging in second in the NFC North with a three-game winning streak behind QB Sam Darnold and WR Justin Jefferson. They just beat Tennesee 23-13. It’s Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams trying to handle the blitzing scheme of Vikings coordinator Brian Flores and the potent Vikings offense attack a Bears defense reeling a bit after allowing Green Bay’s go-ahead TD in the fourth quarter last week.   

Stat Leaders:  Vikings QB Sam Darnold is 199 of 293 (67.9%) with 2,387 yards, 19 TDs and 10 interceptions for a passer rating of 100.0. The Vikings are led in rushing by RB Aaron Jones, the former Packers back, with 692 yards on 157 carries (4.4 yards per carry) and two TDs. WR Justin Jefferson leads the Vikings in catches (59), receiving yards (912) and TDs (5).  …  LB Ivan Pace leads the Vikings defense in tackles with 59 while OLB Andrew Van Ginkel leads in tackles for loss with a league-high 13 and in sacks with 8.0. S Camryn Bynum has a team-high three interceptions.

For the Bear, QB Caleb Williams is 201 for 325 (61.8%) with nine TDs and five interceptions for a passer rating of 82.5. D’Andre Swift leads the Bears in rushing with 635 yards on 155 atempts and his five rushing TDs is tied with Roschon Johnson for the team lead. WR DJ Moore leads the Bears in receptions with 47 and is tied with Cole Kmet for TD receptions with three. WR Rome Odunze leads in receiving yards with 479. … LB TJ Edwards leads in tackles with 78 and is tied with Montez Sweat for the lead in tackles for loss with five. Gervon Dexter leads in sacks with 4.0 while CB Jaylon Johnson has the lead in interceptions with two.

Injury Report: For the Vikings, TE Josh Oliver (wrist) is out. DL Gabriel Murphy (knee) and TE Nick Muse (hand) are questionable.

For the Bears, G Ryan Bates (concussion) and S Elijah Hicks (ankle) are out. WR Keenan Allen (ankle), T Kiran Amegadjie (calf) and RB D’Andre Swift (groin) are questionable.

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Matching Up: The Vikings are 15th on offense, 13th in passing and 19th in rushing. They are 10th in scoring. Minnesota’s defense is ranked 10th, 28th against the pass and first against the run. They are fourth in points allowed.

The Bears are 29th on offense, 30th passing and 22nd at rushing. They are 22nd in points scored. Chicago’s defense ranks 14th overall, ninth against the pass and 23rd against the run. They are seventh in points allowed.

Of Note:  Williams has not thrown an interception in 146 attempts. … Williams has been sacked a league-high total of 41 times and the Vikings are third in sacks with 35. … The Bears rank No. 1 in red zone defense (40.6%). … Minnesota is plus-4 in turnover differential and the Bears plus-9, but the Vikings are 24-2 under O’Connell in games when they win or are even in turnovers. … Darnold’s total of 19 TD passes is a career high. …  The Bears are 3-1 when they lead at halftime and 1-5 when they trail at halftime. … Matt Eberflus has a 2-8 record for his career in replay challenges including 0-3 this season. …  Opponents have scored first in every single Bears game. … The Bears will have their starting offensive line intact for the first time since Oct. 27 against Washington. They had played together five straight games at that point. … The Vikings defense has two TD returns on interceptions (Van Ginkel) and one fumble return for a TD. … Minnesota is 8-0 this season when it outrushes the opponent. … Darnold is tied for second in passes of 25 yards or more with 24, trailing only Brock Purdy. … Jefferson leads the NFL with 17 catches of 20 yards or more.

BEARS AND VIKINGS FANTASY FOOTBALL FAVORITES AND NFL WEEK 12 PICKS

BEARS AND VIKINGS: WHO WINS AND WHY

REPORT: NO APOLOGY FOR BEARS FROM LEAGUE ON PACKER’ LEGAL BLOCKED KICK

DID JAYLON JOHNSON GET ENOUGH RESPECT FROM JUSTIN JEFFERSON?

Key Individual Matchups

Bears CB Jaylon Johnson vs. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson

There can be little doubt the Bears will put Johnson on Jefferson as much as possible. Johnson has a 65.3 passer rating against and has allowed 57.1% completions (20 of 35) when targeted. He has two interceptions and has allowed no TD passes this year, and three over the last three years after he gave up 10 his first two seasons.  Jefferson has had 81 receiving yards or more in eight games but his yards per game of 91.2 is the lowest it’s been since his rookie season. When targeting Jefferson, QBs have an impressive passer rating of 103.4, but it’s the lowest passer rating when targeted of his career. 

Bears DE Montez Sweat vs. Vikings RT Brian O’Neill

O’Neill has given up one sack this season and is graded the eight-best tackle out of 77 Pro Football Focus rates. He’s rated the eighth best pass blocker and 13th best run blocker among tackles on either side and has been flagged for four penalties, twice for holding, once for a false start and once for illegal formation.  Sweat has been having a difficult time registering sacks since the month of November. He still has 3 ½ sacks and made them all over the course of four straight games.   He has 14 pressures according to Stathead/Pro Football Reference and is well off the pace of last year when he had 40 for the season.

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Bears WR DJ Moore vs. Vikings CB Stephon Gilmore

The 34-year-old, 13-year veteran cornerback for Minnesota is a five-time Pro Bowl player and former defensive player of the year with the Patriots. He is with his sixth team and fifth in five seasons and is posting a solid 85.7 passer rating against with 61.7% completions allowed. He has given up two TDs. Moore is coming off his best game in terms of catches since Week 3 at Indianapolis. He had seven catches for 62 yards, is at 47 catches on 73 targets (64.4%) but is at a career low for average yardage (9.8 per catch). He came into the season averaging more than 14 yards a catch.  

Bears DT Gervon Dexter vs. Vikings LG Blake Brandel

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Brandel is graded 48th of 77 guards by PFF and wasn’t necessarily the intended starter. The 6-foot-7, 315-pounder has been a better pass blocker than run blocker. He’s graded 45th as a run blocker, 34th as a pass blocker. He might not have been starting but Dalton Risner suffered a back injury in training camp and was on IR until early November. Dexter’s ranking as one of the best defensive tackles in pass rush win rate has declined now and he’s 20th after spending most of the season in the top 10. He has gone five straight games without a sack, although he has already broken his rookie mark for QB hits with 14 and tied his rookie mark of 17 pressures. Dexter, who is supposed to be a disruptor in this scheme as a 3-technique, hasn’t had a tackle for loss since the Sept. 29 win over the Rams  and has just three on the year. He replaced Justin Jones this year after the free agent had 22 TFLs in two seasons.

Bears RT Darnell Wright vs. Vikings OLB Andrew Van Ginkel

The 6-4, 242-pound Van Ginkel won’t necessarily rush off the Bears’ right edge all the time. They move him around almost as a wild-card rusher. Sometimes he lines up on the edge and stunts to the middle. He’s always applying pressure from different positions, much the way the Packers did with Clay Matthews. However, it’s usually a starting point over Wright. Van Ginkel’s speed and knowledge of defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ blitzing system make him dangerous, and he has eight sacks with two interceptions. Both went for TD returns.  Wright   is graded 25th best tackle in the league by Pro Football Focus, but as been a better run blocker than pass blocker. He is ninth in run block win rate among all tackles according to ESPN.

Bears LB Tremaine Edmunds vs. Vikings TE TJ Hockenson

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The problem with trying to shut down Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison with zones, like the Bears use, is it often leaves the middle linebacker trying to cover a wider area and the tight end can be open. Edmunds has gradually slid down the linebacker ranking charts after a fast start and is 66th on PFF’s grading out of 82 linebackers.  By Stathead stats, he is having a very solid year defending the pass with a 65.1 passer rating against, very low for a linebacker. He’s been generally less effective against the run. Hockensen will be in his fourth game post-knee surgery and appears ready to make strides. He’ll get used in the seams and underneath the coverage. He has 13 catches for 112 yards in three games. Tight ends have hit the Bears pass defense with some bigger numbers this year, so expect he’ll get looks.

-Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

-If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER

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Twitter: BearsOnSI





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NCAA Division II and III football playoffs: Minnesota State Mankato stuns Augustana in final minutes

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NCAA Division II and III football playoffs: Minnesota State Mankato stuns Augustana in final minutes


Matthew Jaeger kicked a 34-yard field goal as time expired as Minnesota State Mankato scored 10 points in the final three minutes to rally for a 20-19 victory over Augustana on Saturday in Sioux Falls, S.D., in the first round of the NCAA Division II playoffs.

The Mavericks had lost to NSIC rival Augustana three times in the past two seasons. It looked glum again Saturday as the Vikings took a 19-10 lead with 3 minutes, 11 seconds remaining on Jake Pecina’s fourth field goal of the game.

Minnesota State started its next possession at its 12-yard line but drove 88 yards in seven plays, capped by Grant Guyett’s 33-yard TD catch from Hayden Ekern and Jaeger’s PAT to pull within 19-17 with 1:35 to play.

The Mavericks’ Lorenzo Jones then recovered an onside kick near midfield. On third-and-4 from the Vikings 39-yard line, Ekern ran 16 yards for a first down at the Vikings 23 with 21 seconds to go. The Mavericks reached the 17-yard line before Jaeger’s final kick.

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Ekern passed for 175 yards and two TDs for the Mavericks, who lost to Augustana 34-16 on Oct. 26 in Mankato.

Richard Agyekum and Joey Goettl each had interceptions which led to 10 points for the Mavericks.

The Mavericks (9-3) will play at Colorado State Pueblo, which had a first-round bye, next week.

Bemidji State 24, Angelo State 14: Connor Carver’s 59-yard TD run with just over two minutes remaining and Isaiah John’s interception with 51 seconds remaining helped the Beavers earn a first-round victory in San Angelo, Texas.



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