December was relatively mild, but Michiganders are painfully aware that it’s time to crank up the thermostat — though this year’s forecast comes with a mix of good and bad news for the Mitten State.

On the upside: Your average heating bill is expected to drop by about 21% — or $27 a month — due to projected milder temps in Michigan, a drop in natural gas prices and other factors.

The downside: Folks in Michigan are still expected to pay among the highest heating bills in the country, according to multiple studies, including one that gives our state an unflattering bragging point. Out of the nation’s top 25 most expensive cities to heat a home in the winter, four are in Michigan: Flint, Detroit, Dearborn and Southfield, with Lansing not far away at No. 32. Warren is 33rd and Sterling Heights 34th.

That’s according to a new study by HVAC Gnome, an online referral service for the HVAC industry that ranked heating expenses in America’s 500 largest cities based on multiple criteria, including: gas prices, average monthly electricity and gas bills, periods of extreme cold, the average size of homes, local energy-efficiency metrics, and share of homes built before 2000. The study used data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Department of Energy, Green Building Information Gateway, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, among other sources.

Springfield, Missouri, topped the list as the most expensive city to heat, followed by Cleveland.

Here’s how Michigan cities stacked up:

• Flint, fourth
• Detroit, 10th
• Dearborn, 20th
• Southfield, 22nd
• Lansing, 32nd
• Warren, 33rd
• Sterling Heights, 34th
• Farmington, 66th
• Wyoming, 75th
• Livonia, 85th
• Rochester, 89th
• Grand Rapids, 107th
• Troy, 109th
• Ann Arbor, 142nd

Old houses, long winters

Richie Bernardo, author of the HVAC Gnome study, explained why so many Michigan cities ended up on this expensive-heating-bill list, despite our state having the eighth lowest natural gas prices in the country.

It’s our large inventory of big old houses.

“Despite the affordability of natural gas across Michigan, the state’s older, less energy-efficient homes and longer, colder winters, unfortunately, mean residents have to turn up the thermostat for relatively longer periods of time,” Bernardo said, noting nine of the 15 Michigan cities cited in the study have among the highest percentages of homes built before 2000.

That’s when states began adopting modern residential energy codes.

For cities like Flint, which had the highest percentage of old homes out of all the nation’s big cities, that’s bad news come wintertime. Ten Michigan cities also placed among the top cities with the highest cold wave risk — on top of already colder winters in Michigan.

How Michigan could reduce heating bills

“Naturally, these factors only crank up energy costs over the course of winter,” Bernardo said, noting more investments in energy-efficient homes could help Michiganders.

For example, wintry cities like New York and Boston have invested heavily in green homes, which is partly why they performed better in the study’s ranking, Bernardo explained.

In comparison to Detroit, which is expected to have the 10th highest heating bills this winter, Boston came in at No. 241, New York City at 309 and Chicago at 103.

While Michigan does have modern, residential energy-efficiency codes, the Department of Energy says our state has amended those codes to older versions. That means new builds in Michigan are currently missing out on significant energy savings promised by the latest version of the codes, Bernardo said, noting progress is being made in some areas.

“Some cities like Grand Rapids and Lansing have taken matters into their own hands by building more LEED- and Energy Star-certified homes,” Bernardo said, noting such homes use between 20% and 60% less energy, while Energy Star-certified homes are at least 10% more efficient than homes built to code.

Housing issues aside, the good news is that Michigan, like the rest of the country, is projected to face lower heating bills this winter — around 20% lower — due to projected milder temps and a larger supply of natural gas. Even residents whose homes are heated with electricity will get a nice break on their home heating bills this winter, too, thanks to the warmer weather.

In Michigan, residents can expect to pay $106 a month for natural gas this winter, compared with $133 a month last year.

That’s according to an analysis of data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Personal finance site MoneyGeek analyzed the EIA data to determine which states can expect to see the highest heating bills this winter.

Cheap natural gas helps

Michigan came in at No. 8. Illinois was No. 1, with a projected monthly heating bill of $133.

DTE Energy, Michigan’s largest utility company, confirmed the federal government’s projected decrease in Michigan heating bills, noting that the price of natural gas this January is $3.75 per 1,000 cubic foot, compared with $4.82 per 1,000 cubic foot last January.

Michigan, which has multiple natural gas providers, including Consumers Energy, also has the eighth-cheapest residential natural gas rates in the country, according to a 2023 Choose Energy Natural Gas Rates Report.

Add to that a milder winter, and residents can expect to see some relief in their pocketbooks.

“Obviously, the weather really does affect how much energy people use during the winter months,” said Rosana Laurain, manager of DTE’s gas marketing department, who sought to explain why Michigan has higher heating bills compared with the rest of the country.

One key reason, she said, is the housing stock.

“We have a lot of older, large homes,” Laurain said. “That definitely affects the bills.”

Tips on lowering your heating bill

So how can Michiganders, despite projections for lower heating bills this winter, pay even less?

Here are some key tips from DTE, HVAC Gnome and the federal government:

• Keep your thermostat at 68 during the day. Turn it down 1-2 degrees overnight. Install a programmable thermostat if possible.
• Replace your furnace filter at the start of winter. Clean or change it every three months.
• Seal air leaks around doors, windows, recessed lights and attic hatches. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, you could save up to 30% on energy costs every year by sealing leaks.
• Buy smart power strips. Energy experts say devices continue to draw power even when they appear to be turned off, costing up to $200 a year in wasted energy. You can combat this by regularly unplugging your devices, or letting a smart power strip do the work for you.

Safety tips: Get carbon monoxide detectors

Expenses aside, energy experts also urge customers to use safety measures to protect against gas explosions, and carbon monoxide poisoning.

• DTE recommends that carbon monoxide detectors be installed on each floor of your home, though NOT near any gas appliances or next to the furnace.
• Have annual inspections of your gas appliances.
• NEVER use a stove or oven to heat your house. This is a major fire hazard and can also allow dangerous gases such as carbon monoxide into your home.
• If you smell gas, immediately leave the area, go to an area where you can’t smell it — preferably outside — and call 911.
• Make sure to shut off the water that goes to your spigots to prevent pipes from bursting.
• Bring your pets inside. Don’t keep them outside too long when it’s cold and make sure their paws are protected from salt.
• If you lose heat, go to a warm place, such as local libraries, shopping malls or community centers. There may even be warming centers by you. To find a warming center, go to mi211.org and search “warming centers” with your ZIP code.

Contact Tresa Baldas: tbaldas@freepress.com