Iowa
Trump faces tougher challenge in New Hampshire after Iowa romp
Former President Trump easily defeated his rivals in the Iowa caucuses but will face a tougher challenge in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary as he looks to cement his status as the inevitable GOP nominee.
Trump is in a strong position ahead of the Jan. 23 contest in the Granite State, where he won the party’s last contested primary in 2016 by roughly 55,000 votes, or 20 percentage points.
A Decision Desk HQ-The Hill average of polls shows Trump leading former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley in New Hampshire by 8 percentage points.
But there are a handful of factors that could create a path to victory for Haley, who has emerged as arguably Trump’s most formidable challenger for the GOP nomination.
Independents will be able to vote in New Hampshire’s primary, the state has a far different electorate than the deeply conservative and evangelical Iowa, and Haley has spent more time than Trump in the state, where she has seen her poll numbers climb in recent weeks.
New Hampshire also has historically relished its role as a counterweight to Iowa, and while Trump enters the week as the favorite, it would not be a shock to see a counterintuitive result.
It would also create the feeling of a real primary race for the first time this cycle.
“I think if she beats him in New Hampshire it creates a lot of uncertainty. It would be a massive story,” said Alex Conant, who worked on Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) 2016 presidential campaign.
Different electorate
Trump dominated in Iowa, where GOP voters tend to be evangelicals and more socially conservative. Entrance polls showed Trump won 53 percent of the vote from white evangelicals, compared with just 13 percent who went to Haley.
But in New Hampshire, the state is less religious and more libertarian.
Parts of New Hampshire are effectively suburbs of Boston, and the state has backed a Democrat for president each election cycle since 2000, a sign of how moderate it is compared with Iowa.
“The nature of the voter universe is different. The issue set is different,” said Jim Merrill, a veteran GOP strategist based in New Hampshire. “It’s no surprise that in Iowa you had Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum all win there, all three of whom led with their faith, and that was rewarded in Iowa.”
Primary vs. caucus
In addition to the demographics of New Hampshire, the nature of its primary process compared with Iowa’s caucuses could boost Haley, whose coalition is more reliant on independent voters or those who supported President Biden in 2020.
New Hampshire allows undeclared voters to participate in party primaries, meaning independents and Republicans alike will be able to cast a ballot in the GOP primary. Registered Democrats cannot participate, and the deadline to change party affiliation in the state passed months ago.
“New Hampshire is interesting,” Trump said this month at a Fox News town hall. “It’s a great place, a great state, unbelievable people. But they allow independents and Democrats to vote in the Republican primary. You say, ‘What’s that all about?’”
“So, it’s a little bit false in that regard, but even with that, I think we’ll win substantially,” he added.
Haley’s third place finish in Iowa reflected the kind of coalition she’ll rely on. Exit polls showed Haley won 63 percent of caucusgoers who identified as moderate or liberal, the most of any candidate. She won 34 percent of self-identified independents, trailing Trump by 8 points in that category.
The New Hampshire primary is also in some ways more accessible than the caucus format, which requires individuals to show up at a specific location at a specific time and listen to speeches from each campaign before casting a ballot.
“The caucus caters to really deeply involved activists and people who are very involved in party politics,” Merrill said. “New Hampshire is an open primary, so you obviously have strong Republican involvement, but you also have undeclared voters who don’t affiliate with a party.”
Haley banking big on New Hampshire
Haley has invested a significant amount of time and resources in New Hampshire, making it an even more critical state for her if she is to upend Trump’s march to the nomination.
“We’ve been here for 11 months. We’ve done over 75 town halls,” Haley said Tuesday on Fox News.
She has the endorsement of Gov. Chris Sununu (R), and her controversial comments earlier this month that New Hampshire would “correct” the Iowa result reflected how much she is banking on a strong showing in the Granite State.
Haley could benefit because Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has spent little time campaigning in New Hampshire, while former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), who almost exclusively campaigned there, dropped out of the race last week.
Trump has only held a handful of events in New Hampshire in recent months, though he will hold at least five rallies in the state in the days leading up to the primary and is a known commodity among voters there.
Trump and his team are hoping to secure another victory next week by any margin, essentially putting to rest any questions about whether an alternative could emerge in the primary contest.
But polling in the upcoming states on the primary calendar underscores just how dominant a force Trump is set up to be, regardless of the New Hampshire outcome.
An Emerson College poll published Jan. 9 found Trump leading DeSantis in the Nevada caucuses by a whopping 65 percentage points, though some candidates opted to appear on the state’s primary ballot rather than in the caucus.
An Emerson College poll released Jan. 5 found Trump leading Haley in her home state of South Carolina by 29 percentage points.
“At the end of the day what matters is wins and losses, and if Trump loses New Hampshire, for the next three or four weeks he’s a loser,” said Conant, the former Rubio aide who now works at Firehouse Strategies. “It would really change the dynamics in the race very quickly. Whereas if he wins the first two [states], I don’t know what the argument is that Haley is going to start winning in other states.”
Copyright 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Iowa
Iowa State women get back on track, hold off in-state rival Drake
Returning to Hilton Coliseum was just what the Iowa State women needed, as the eighth-ranked Cyclones held off Drake Sunday afternoon in Ames, 80-78.
Returning sophomore standout Audi Crooks had the game-winning bucket with just :00.3 seconds left in the game, finishing off a 33-point effort to lead Iowa State (5-1).
Crooks, a preseason honorable mention All-American, added four rebounds to her night while shooting 15 of 25 from the field.
Emily Ryan had a double-double, scoring 11 points while dishing out 12 assists. Addy Brown added 13 points and Mackenzie Hare chipped in 10. Brown led the team with eight rebounds while Ryan had six with two steals.
Arianna Jackson had three steals and no turnovers in almost 31 minutes of action.
For Drake, another former Iowa prep standout put up a big number vs. the Cyclones, as Katie Dinnebier knocked down eight 3-pointers and scored a game-high 39 points. Anna Miller had 18 with eight rebounds, as Dinnebier also had five rebounds, two steals and two assists.
The win marked the 300th non-conference victory for Iowa State under Bill Fennelly all-time, as he improved to 616-314 with the Cyclones and 782-367 overall in his coaching career.
Iowa State added to its NCAA-record streak for consecutive games with a made 3-pointer, stretching it to 933 straight.
Up next for the Cyclones will be defending national champion South Carolina on Thanksgiving at 12:30 p.m. on FOX. The Gamecocks had their 43-game win streak snapped with a 77-62 loss in Los Angeles.
Iowa
Double scolding to Iowa DNR is a moment to pivot and stand up for water quality | Opinion
Iowa leaders do not have to abandon or betray pro-business stances if they want to do better for Iowa water and for Iowans.
See how Iowa DNR conducts beach monitoring tests at Iowa’s lakes
The Iowa Department of Natural Resources conducts weekly tests to monitor beach water quality at 39 state-owned beaches.
The battle for clean water in Iowa has been locked in a stalemate for years. Advocates jump up and down pointing to obvious evidence that dangerous chemicals pervade streams, rivers and lakes, threatening people’s health and taking away recreation opportunities. The state’s elected and appointed officials, citing various measures of their own, say things are getting better thanks to their strategy of working together with agricultural and industrial polluters. Little changes (except continued damage to waterways).
A pair of developments this month, though, call into question Iowa’s entire approach to managing water. A state administrative law judge and the federal Environmental Protection Agency, in unrelated writings, say the Iowa Department of Natural Resources thinks too narrowly about water pollution.
If state leaders take the criticisms seriously, they can chart a different course of more aggressive protection and restoration of this precious resource. New approaches to monitoring, regulation, enforcement and spending can spur a better future for the welfare of Iowa and its people.
Monitoring: DNR wrongly omitted rivers from impaired-waters list, EPA says
The EPA chided the DNR in a letter this month, saying stretches of the Cedar, Des Moines, Iowa, Raccoon and South Skunk rivers should have been included on the DNR’s list of impaired waters in the state. The assessments involved are technical, but the gist is that Iowa improperly treated nitrate pollution as though it does not have toxic effects on humans. Nitrates are a form of nitrogen that commonly results from manure and fertilizer runoff.
The rivers involved supply drinking water for large cities, including Des Moines and Cedar Rapids. It is distressing to learn that the DNR could miss the mark on such a crucial question of public health – all the more so when considering the possibility that the EPA might cease to be an effective backstop on such questions. New York congressman Lee Zeldin, Donald Trump’s announced choice to take over the EPA, pays lip service to conservation, but he, Trump and other voices likely to be influential in the new White House have made plain their top priority is removing restrictions on business. In the future, responsibility could fall solely on the DNR to correctly look out for drinking-water interests.
Regulation: Availability cannot be the only consideration in water-use matters
Another of the DNR’s tasks is to manage water-use permits for farms and other businesses that use a lot of it. According to an order by state administrative law judge Toby Gordon, the DNR’s management mostly focuses on availability of water. Gordon, reviewing a permit for a controversial feedlot in northeast Iowa, says that’s contrary to state law, which calls for environmental impact to be considered, too.
Indeed, here’s Chapter 455B of the Iowa Code: “The general welfare of the people of the state requires that the water resources of the state be put to beneficial use which includes ensuring that the waste or unreasonable use, or unreasonable methods of use of water be prevented, and that the conservation and protection of water resources be required with the view to their reasonable and beneficial use in the interest of the people.”
DNR Director Kayla Lyon can accept Gordon’s order or seek changes. She should agree to it in this case, but more importantly, she and her department need to adopt this reasoning in all contexts, not just water-use permitting. They should more often push back on the operations in Iowa whose proposals risk — or promise — damage to the environment.
Industry, including agriculture, drives Iowa’s economy, of course. And that will still be true if DNR personnel insist more often that industry take responsibility for side effects. The DNR has the authority it needs; it’s a matter of discretion.
Before voting no on Lyon’s confirmation this spring, state Sen. Pam Jochum, a Dubuque Democrat, told colleagues that “I think that Kayla Lyon — if she was allowed to do what a director can do, provide policy direction to this body on what the problems are and how to fix them and the funding that needs to accompany that to solve those problems — this state would have clean water.”
Many tools are available to Lyon, her DNR and state boards responsible for the environment: They can reject applications. They can impose more conditions on permits. They can fine offenders more often. They can refer more severe offenders for prosecution.
Enforcement: Attorney general should step up its enforcement
In egregious cases, the Iowa Attorney General’s Office can take over enforcement actions and seek penalties of greater than $10,000, the statutory limit for the DNR’s administrative process.
If regulators believe that some Iowa businesses count those meager fines as merely a cost of doing business, then they should more freely get the attorney general involved.
Attorney General Brenna Bird’s office should have the resources to pitch in. Unlike almost all other state agencies, which have as usual requested status quo budgets for 2025-26, Bird is asking lawmakers for $1.7 million in new money to hire seven attorneys and a paralegal for various needs. In addition, Bird has unquestionably fulfilled her 2022 campaign promise to use the office’s resources to litigate furiously against the Biden administration – which won’t exist after Jan. 20. Maybe dashing off memos and briefs in favor of Donald Trump’s agenda will take just as much time. Or maybe some time could be sliced off for work more directly relevant to Iowans’ lives and communities.
Spending: Time to finally raise sales tax for the outdoor trust fund
Even if Iowa transformed its regulatory scheme on a dime into one that reliably preserved water quality, the problems that have accumulated over decades will require investment for mitigation and restoration. State appropriations and other sources can be a piece of that puzzle. But Iowa also has a ready-to-go mechanism for spending on conservation and recreation priorities: the Natural Resources and Outdoor Recreation Trust Fund, approved by 63% of voters in 2010 and stubbornly empty since.
Filling the trust fund’s coffers requires increasing the sales tax, which the Iowa Legislature has refused to do. Gov. Kim Reynolds proposed this in early 2020, but the idea fell apart when COVID-19 tanked most of that year’s legislative session. Lawmakers’ bills to take similar steps also have fizzled.
With Republican majorities passing income tax reductions and proposing to take a new bite out of property taxes, there’s no time like the present to fund some necessary government work, including conservation, with a higher sales tax.
The stakes: Protecting water is Iowa law
Private environmental groups have done laudable work bringing the DNR’s shortcomings to light and collecting wins in court and in administrative proceedings. They’ll continue to do that even if the EPA gives up on water quality. But those battles are costly, and the environmental groups lack the authority of government.
Lyon and the DNR, as well as Bird, Reynolds and majority leaders in the Legislature, do not have to abandon or betray pro-business stances if they want to do better for Iowa water and for Iowans. But they need to realize that doing better for water quality and for people is part of their charge. It’s been there in state law for decades.
Lucas Grundmeier, on behalf of the Register’s editorial board
This editorial is the opinion of the Des Moines Register’s editorial board: Carol Hunter, executive editor; Lucas Grundmeier, opinion editor; and Richard Doak and Rox Laird, editorial board members.
Want more opinions? Read other perspectives with our free newsletter or visit us at DesMoinesRegister.com/opinion. Respond to any opinion by submitting a Letter to the Editor at DesMoinesRegister.com/letters.
Iowa
Iowa victorious in 20th straight Cy-Hawk dual, winning 21-15
IOWA CITY, Iowa (KCRG) – With four victories after intermission, including a technical fall and major decision, the Hawkeyes extended their winning streak over Iowa State to 20 in a row.
The Hawkeyes took the dual 21-15.
Early on, the matched looked dead even, with the teams trading decisions. But at 157 pounds, Iowa State’s Paniro Johnson picked up six points with an injury default win over Jacori Teemer. Teemer appeared to injure his hamstring, but Iowa head coach Tom Brands did not comment further on his status.
Iowa responded four straight wins from Michael Caliendo, Patrick Kennedy, Angelo Ferrari and Stephen Buchanan to seal the dual. Kennedy’s win came by technical fall, Buchanan’s by major decision. Yonger Bastida defeated Ben Kueter at heavyweight to earn the last points for Iowa State.
With the win, Iowa improves to 4-0. With the loss, ISU drops to 1-2.
No. 2 Iowa 21 – No. 12 Iowa State 15
125 – Adrian Meza (ISU) dec. Kale Petersen (Iowa) , 5-1
133 – Drake Ayala (Iowa) dec. Evan Frost (ISU), 11-7
141 – Zach Redding (ISU) dec. Ryder Block (Iowa), 5-4
149 – Kyle Parco (Iowa) dec. Anthony Echemendia (ISU), 4-3
157 – Paniro Johnson (ISU) inj. default Jacori Teemer (IA), 3:32
165 – Michael Caliendo (Iowa) dec. Connor Euton (ISU), 12-7
174 – Patrick Kennedy (Iowa) tech. fall Aiden Riggins (ISU), 19-4
184 – Angelo Ferrari (Iowa) dec. Evan Bockman (ISU), 8-2
197 – Stephen Buchanan (Iowa) major dec. #20 Christian Carroll, 10-0
285 – Yonger Bastida (ISU) dec. Ben Kueter (Iowa), 7-2
Copyright 2024 KCRG. All rights reserved.
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