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Trump faces tougher challenge in New Hampshire after Iowa romp

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Trump faces tougher challenge in New Hampshire after Iowa romp


Former President Trump easily defeated his rivals in the Iowa caucuses but will face a tougher challenge in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary as he looks to cement his status as the inevitable GOP nominee.

Trump is in a strong position ahead of the Jan. 23 contest in the Granite State, where he won the party’s last contested primary in 2016 by roughly 55,000 votes, or 20 percentage points. 

A Decision Desk HQ-The Hill average of polls shows Trump leading former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley in New Hampshire by 8 percentage points.

But there are a handful of factors that could create a path to victory for Haley, who has emerged as arguably Trump’s most formidable challenger for the GOP nomination.

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Independents will be able to vote in New Hampshire’s primary, the state has a far different electorate than the deeply conservative and evangelical Iowa, and Haley has spent more time than Trump in the state, where she has seen her poll numbers climb in recent weeks.

New Hampshire also has historically relished its role as a counterweight to Iowa, and while Trump enters the week as the favorite, it would not be a shock to see a counterintuitive result.

It would also create the feeling of a real primary race for the first time this cycle.

“I think if she beats him in New Hampshire it creates a lot of uncertainty. It would be a massive story,” said Alex Conant, who worked on Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) 2016 presidential campaign.

Different electorate

Trump dominated in Iowa, where GOP voters tend to be evangelicals and more socially conservative. Entrance polls showed Trump won 53 percent of the vote from white evangelicals, compared with just 13 percent who went to Haley.

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But in New Hampshire, the state is less religious and more libertarian. 

Parts of New Hampshire are effectively suburbs of Boston, and the state has backed a Democrat for president each election cycle since 2000, a sign of how moderate it is compared with Iowa.

“The nature of the voter universe is different. The issue set is different,” said Jim Merrill, a veteran GOP strategist based in New Hampshire. “It’s no surprise that in Iowa you had Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum all win there, all three of whom led with their faith, and that was rewarded in Iowa.”

Primary vs. caucus

In addition to the demographics of New Hampshire, the nature of its primary process compared with Iowa’s caucuses could boost Haley, whose coalition is more reliant on independent voters or those who supported President Biden in 2020.

New Hampshire allows undeclared voters to participate in party primaries, meaning independents and Republicans alike will be able to cast a ballot in the GOP primary. Registered Democrats cannot participate, and the deadline to change party affiliation in the state passed months ago.

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“New Hampshire is interesting,” Trump said this month at a Fox News town hall. “It’s a great place, a great state, unbelievable people. But they allow independents and Democrats to vote in the Republican primary. You say, ‘What’s that all about?’”  

“So, it’s a little bit false in that regard, but even with that, I think we’ll win substantially,” he added.

Haley’s third place finish in Iowa reflected the kind of coalition she’ll rely on. Exit polls showed Haley won 63 percent of caucusgoers who identified as moderate or liberal, the most of any candidate. She won 34 percent of self-identified independents, trailing Trump by 8 points in that category.

The New Hampshire primary is also in some ways more accessible than the caucus format, which requires individuals to show up at a specific location at a specific time and listen to speeches from each campaign before casting a ballot.

“The caucus caters to really deeply involved activists and people who are very involved in party politics,” Merrill said. “New Hampshire is an open primary, so you obviously have strong Republican involvement, but you also have undeclared voters who don’t affiliate with a party.”

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Haley banking big on New Hampshire

Haley has invested a significant amount of time and resources in New Hampshire, making it an even more critical state for her if she is to upend Trump’s march to the nomination.

“We’ve been here for 11 months. We’ve done over 75 town halls,” Haley said Tuesday on Fox News.

She has the endorsement of Gov. Chris Sununu (R), and her controversial comments earlier this month that New Hampshire would “correct” the Iowa result reflected how much she is banking on a strong showing in the Granite State.

Haley could benefit because Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has spent little time campaigning in New Hampshire, while former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), who almost exclusively campaigned there, dropped out of the race last week.

Trump has only held a handful of events in New Hampshire in recent months, though he will hold at least five rallies in the state in the days leading up to the primary and is a known commodity among voters there.

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Trump and his team are hoping to secure another victory next week by any margin, essentially putting to rest any questions about whether an alternative could emerge in the primary contest. 

But polling in the upcoming states on the primary calendar underscores just how dominant a force Trump is set up to be, regardless of the New Hampshire outcome.

An Emerson College poll published Jan. 9 found Trump leading DeSantis in the Nevada caucuses by a whopping 65 percentage points, though some candidates opted to appear on the state’s primary ballot rather than in the caucus.

An Emerson College poll released Jan. 5 found Trump leading Haley in her home state of South Carolina by 29 percentage points.

“At the end of the day what matters is wins and losses, and if Trump loses New Hampshire, for the next three or four weeks he’s a loser,” said Conant, the former Rubio aide who now works at Firehouse Strategies. “It would really change the dynamics in the race very quickly. Whereas if he wins the first two [states], I don’t know what the argument is that Haley is going to start winning in other states.”

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How to watch and listen to Miami vs Iowa State 2024 Pop-Tarts Bowl game: Live stream, TV channel, and start time | Goal.com US

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How to watch and listen to Miami vs Iowa State 2024 Pop-Tarts Bowl game: Live stream, TV channel, and start time | Goal.com US


Everything you need to know on how to watch Miami vs Iowa State 2024 Pop-Tarts Bowl game – team news, livestream, TV channel, and start time.

Two teams just shy of a College Football Playoff berth are set to clash in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, aiming to end their seasons on a high note.

Listen to the play-by-play of the game on SiriusXM

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Here, GOAL brings you everything you need to know about how to watch and listen to the Miami (FL) vs Iowa State 2024 Pop-Tarts Bowl game, plus plenty more.

Miami vs Iowa State 2024 Pop-Tarts Bowl game: Date and kick-off time

The Hurricanes will take on the Cyclones in a highly anticipated 2024 Fenway Bowl game on Saturday, December 28, 2024, at 3:30 pm ET/ 12:30 pm PT, at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

How to watch Miami vs Iowa State 2024 Pop-Tarts Bowl game on TV & stream live online

TV channel: ABC

  • Broadcasters: Tom Hart (play-by-play), Jordan Rodgers (color) and Cole Cubelic (color analyst) are on the game call.

Streaming service: FuboTV

Streaming the game with a VPN

Unable to watch this game due to broadcast restrictions? A VPN could be the answer to your problems.

NordVPN is our pick for the best VPN service in 2024 when streaming live sports. You can even try NordVPN risk-free with a 30-day money-back guarantee.

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How to listen to live play-by-play commentary of Miami (FL) vs Iowa State 2024 Pop-Tarts Bowl game

Audio Stream: Away: 198 (CAR), 952 (NE) | Home: 84 (CAR), 84 (NE) | National: 80 (CAR), 80 (NE)

SiriusXM allows you to stream NCAA games throughout the season, including live coverage of college football games with home and away feeds for every team.

Hear exclusive interviews with players and coaches, plus expert analysis from the top names in sports radio. Listeners will need either a Platinum or Streaming Platinum plan.

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Miami vs Iowa State team news & key players

Miami Hurricanes team news

Miami boasts the top-ranked offense in the country, averaging an eye-popping 44.2 points and 538.3 total yards per game during the regular season.

Cam Ward, a transfer from Washington State, has shattered numerous school records this season, amassing 4,123 passing yards and 36 touchdowns with a 67.4% completion rate and only seven interceptions. His primary target, All-American Xavier Restrepo, has yet to confirm his participation in the bowl, while senior running back Damien Martinez, a future NFL draft pick, has announced he will play.

Iowa State Cyclones team news

On the other side, the Iowa State Cyclones come into this game with a 10-3 record (7-2 in conference play) after a tough 45-19 loss to Arizona State in their last outing. The Cyclones were tied 10-10 in the second quarter before conceding 35 unanswered points. They were outgained 467-341 in total yardage, turned the ball over three times, and converted just 7-of-14 third downs. Rocco Becht threw for 214 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, while Jayden Higgins hauled in seven catches for 115 yards.

The Cyclones have also suffered defeats to Kansas and Texas Tech but secured victories over North Dakota, Iowa, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor, West Virginia, UCF, Cincinnati, Utah, and Kansas State. Iowa State’s offense has averaged 31.2 points per game with 254.6 passing yards and 161.7 rushing yards per contest, while their defense has allowed just 21.5 points per game. Rocco Becht has completed 59.3% of his passes for 3,235 yards, 22 touchdowns, and nine interceptions this season, with Carson Hansen contributing 670 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns to their ground game.

More college football news and coverage



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Storm Tracker Podcast – Scouting the Opponent – Iowa State

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Storm Tracker Podcast – Scouting the Opponent – Iowa State


Marcus Benjamin, publisher of CanesCounty.com, is joined by Bill Seals, publisher of CycloneReport.com, to discuss the matchup between Miami and Iowa State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.

First, Seals shares his thoughts on the feel of the Iowa State program going into Saturday’s game (2:07) and what the Cyclone is looking to prove in Orlando (4:08).

Next, Seals talks about the strengths and weaknesses of Iowa State and whether they were exposed against Arizona State in the Big 12 championship game (7:00).

Seals describes the type of offense Iowa State runs and the looks to expect on defense (10:03). He also shares thoughts on the matchups to watch between the Hurricanes and Cyclones (13:37).

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Next, Seals shares his thoughts on ISU QB Rocco Becht and what makes him dangerous (14:51).

Benjamin and Seals discuss key players who will not play in the bowl game (16:20) and share predictions of the outcome (19:53).



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Iowa football roster cuts have made for a challenging December

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Iowa football roster cuts have made for a challenging December


In October, preliminary approval was granted to the $2.8 billion House v. NCAA settlement.

One of the proposed pieces of the settlement terms includes maximum roster sizes in every Division I NCAA-sponsored sport. In FBS football, that maximum roster figure is 105 players.

The average roster size in college football was 121.4 players during the 2023 season. That means there are some tough conversations to be had nationally as coaches and programs work to trim their rosters down to the 105-player maximum before the beginning of the 2025-26 school year.

Iowa head football coach Kirk Ferentz discussed how the new roster limits have made for a challenging December.

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“Awful. It’s been the hardest part of this month. It could have been so easily avoided if we stair-stepped it. I’m sure it was a financial decision. Nobody asked me for my opinion or filled me in on the details. I’m sure it was a financial decision, like everything we do.

“I would argue whatever the dollar amount was, keep it the same and spread it out on 120, 118, spread it among 118 instead of 105 and not have bloodletting. That’s the regrettable part in my mind,” Ferentz said.

With the reality of the 105-player roster limit staring Iowa in the face, the Hawkeyes had those tough conversations this month. It’s evident by the amount of players that have departed Iowa’s program via the transfer portal.

Ferentz shared how the Hawkeyes approached those conversations with their players.

“There’s a couple ways to do it. I don’t know how other people are doing it. I’ve heard other people are approaching it differently. We felt very strongly as a staff we owed it to any player that might be in jeopardy to let them know the week following our last game what the status was, give them an opportunity to go out and prepare for whatever they want to prepare for.

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“We’ve had guys leave the program at that point. They’ve left the program. We have other guys that are going to go to other places but staying with the program throughout the bowl. Everybody is getting bowl gifts, all that stuff. Everybody had the opportunity to stay with us and go to the bowl site and finish out this with us as a team member. They had the option of doing whatever they wanted to do. We’ve had other guys leave and already find other homes. We just felt like it was the right thing to do to give them a chance if they want to prepare for the future, do it. If they want to stay here, that’s great, too. It was hard,” Ferentz said.

As Iowa looks toward the future, Ferentz expressed concerns with how teams will navigate injuries during a season with the 105-player roster limits.

“Then the whole next chapter is going to be really interesting, too, because practice with 105 guys in college football. This is not the NFL. Nobody even brought up what happens if a guy has a season-ending injury. We can’t go out and bring somebody in to replace that guy. It makes practice a challenge, makes developing a team a challenge.

“Those are questions or discussions for post January. I’m not looking forward to that. I think it impacts a program like ours more so than other people that recruit five-star athletes every year because they’re a little bit more readymade. That’s the way it goes. We’ll figure out a way to make it an advantage,” Ferentz said.

Contact/Follow us @HawkeyesWire on X and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Iowa news, notes and opinions.

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Follow Josh on X: @JoshOnREF



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