Illinois
Brad Underwood finally mastered Illinois’ winning formula
Happy Friday, Illinois Land!
Instead of doing the usual column with post-Thanksgiving word puns involving side dishes and jokes about turkeys, I will use my time to point out a few things that I now know about college basketball in 2025, and the place that Illinois occupies inside of that stratosphere.
I will also discuss where Illinois fits into the landscape of the Big Ten. I think you’ll like how I see that unfolding. My pending Big Ten Analysis will highlight the lack of good depth in the conference.
It is not exactly a banner year for the Big Ten in men’s college basketball. To say the least.
Despite the fact that the Big Ten has dropped in the national landscape, and despite the fact that Illinois lost to a True Elite in 2025 against Alabama in Birmingham by double digits, it’s great beyond words to have a head basketball coach leading your program playing basketball the way it needs to be played at this present date.
Brad Underwood has turned Illinois into a National Program. Do not confuse this with being a national powerhouse.
As I see it, here are the five levels of Illinois basketball. National Championship Contender can replace Blue Blood for Illinois. There was no way for me to get in a shot at Indiana and its fans unless I constituted it this way.
For reference: Indiana is now No. 61 in KenPom (76 in OER, and 51 in DER). I was told that they are the conference favorite. I was also told Illinois cannot play defense. More on this in a bit.
- Conference Bottomfeeder (Year 1-2): 26-39 in his first two seasons, 11-27 in the Big Ten. I would call this 1990s Era coaching. Up the line, full court pressure, etc.
- Respected NCAA Tournament Team (Year 3+): This will be five-straight non-bubble NCAATs for Underwood, six if you count the COVID-19 cancellation of 2020.
- Big Ten Power (Year 3+): In turn, this makes you a Final Four contender on semi-annual basis, at a minimum. I don’t mean make a Final Four, but be a Top Four seed. No one believes that NC State had a better season than Illinois last year.
- National (and International) Program (Year 4+): Playing games on CBS on Thanksgiving by request, re-hiring arguably the country’s top assistant coach (Orlando Antigua), signing two potential lottery picks from two countries outside the United States. I could go on, but I won’t. You get it.
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- Blue Blood (Never): This outdated term continues to keep Indiana fans from jumping off the nearest bridge for the last three-plus decades. Illinois will never be here. UCONN can’t get into the club with six National Championships since 1999.
Having said that, I’m going to say this.
John Calipari is in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. He has taken three different programs to the Final Four: Massachusetts, Memphis and Kentucky. He is an all-time great coach with a dazzling record (814-260, for a .758 winning percentage).
Calipari won an NCAA Tournament and cut down the nets in 2012, his third year in Lexington leading the Cats. He was outstanding at Kentucky (410-123), winning games at a .769 clip during his 15-year tenure.
He inexplicably missed the NCAA Tournament twice, going just 9-16 in 2021. His last three years, Kentucky lost 30 games and twice in the NCAAT to vastly inferior teams against No. 15 St. Peter’s and last year against No. 14 Oakland.
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Please read the words I type. Do not create a false narrative around comparing Calipari and Underwood, in totality.
Underwood certainly has not had the career of Calipari — it’s not close — nor will he likely end up in the Hall of Fame anywhere outside of Champaign. Not impossible, but not likely.
Looking to the future, it’s clear which coach of the pair from the Thanksgiving matchup in Kansas City has the brighter future. This isn’t close, either.
While Underwood’s Illini blitzed Arkansas with a barrage of threes, high ball screens and floor spacing for play makers, Calipari and Kentu…Arkansas…had a plan “to attack the rim all game,” according to Calipari post-game.
Arkansas ATTEMPTED 17 threes. Illinois MADE 15. Illinois was +30 in in this category.
Frees (points at the free throw line) and threes (points behind the arc) is something I look at during every halftime, and after every game.
Illinois was +29 in this category. BU’s squad scored 90 points on the elite Arkansas defense, which was ranked No. 8 in KenPom DER prior to the contest.
The Illini had 60 of their 90 points (67.7%) of their points on Frees and Threes. Check on this stat every game that Underwood and Illinois play the entirety of the season. It will likely tell the story.
Factor in 2P% defense and you can get the winner of every game Illinois plays this year. The defensive strategy of Illinois is to defend the bucket and the arc. Despite giving a bucket full to Alabama in the lone loss (100-87), Illinois is currently No. 21 in DER.
Let’s take a look at pace of play, and how it affects efficiency, from a large scale perspective. What Illinois is doing is hard to copy.
For that matter, the Illinois offense is now No. 18 in OER (Offensive Efficiency Rating). Of the top 21 in DER on KenPom, Illinois has the FASTEST tempo, at No. 36.
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In summary, Illinois plays in the Top 10% in pace of play and ranks even better in efficiency at both ends. It’s not only extremely difficult to do, but largely unnecessary.
When you play fast and efficient on offense, defense lessens in importance in direct correlation with how more efficient your offense can be. In short, play fast and good on offense and you outscore your opponent and win based on simple math.
Here are the avearages for defensive and offensive efficiency. The lower the number, the faster the pace.
Top 5 DERs in terms of pace average: 260.6
Top 5 OERs in terms of pace average: 66.8
Illinois pace of play: 36 (Top 21 in both DER and OER)
I know it’s a lot of numbers. I get it. Underwood has embraced the numbers game and turned Illinois from a Big Ten Bottomfeeder to a National Program.
You may not like it, but you’re gonna learn to love it.
Please take The Scientific Poll.
Poll
What is the win ceiling for Illinois men’s basketball in 2024-25?
This is threes and frees. This is creating space. This is the winning formula.
This is Illinois Basketball.
Illinois
Illinois Inexplicably Drops in ESPN’s Updated Bracketology From Joe Lunardi
Illinois’ win over Penn State at The Palestra was anything but flawless. A horrid shooting night and a stagnant offensive performance – specifically when freshman guard Keaton Wagler was off the floor – characterized the whole affair.
Defensively, the Illini were fairly stout, but they gave up far too many second-chance opportunities to the Nittany Lions – who parlayed 14 offensive rebounds into 16 second-chance points.
But to steal a win on the road – technically, the game was played in neutral-site Philadelphia – against a Big Ten opponent is an accomplishment in itself. (It was just lowly Penn State, you say? Tell that to Michigan, which squeaked by the Nittany Lions by two on Tuesday night.)
In a college basketball season of more than 30 games, it’s inevitable that a two-hour window will overlap here and there when the shots simply don’t fall – no matter how open the looks are. That happened on Saturday, yet the Illini still triumphed.
That’s glass half full. The glass-half-empty perspective goes something like this: putting up 73 points on 39.3 percent shooting against a Penn State team that entered the game outside of the top 200 in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) is embarrassing. And as a team that prides itself on controlling the glass, giving up 14 offensive rebounds to the Nittany Lions is entirely unacceptable.
Where Illinois landed in ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology
Perhaps ESPN’s Joe Lunardi is a pessimist, as that latter line of rationale could be the only possible explanation for his decision in Tuesday’s edition of Bracketology. In it, he dropped the Illini a seed line, moving them down from a three seed to a four seed.
Since Lunardi’s previous update, Illinois has played exactly one game – against Penn State. Were the Illini really exposed that badly in Philly? In any case, they have two full months to bolster their resume, and the Big Ten schedule provides plenty of prime opportunities: In the next 32 days alone, the Illini have road meetings at No. 19 Iowa, No. 5 Purdue, No. 10 Nebraska – a key chance at vengeance – and No. 12 Michigan State.
Split those contests and Illinois may find itself sitting firmly as a three seed. Win three out of four and the Illini are suddenly a borderline two seed. But until they prove themselves with a few more statement victories, it appears they will be stuck as a four – an excellent “consolation” prize for the time being.
Every Big Ten team in Joe Lunardi’s bracketology for ESPN
Ohio State (No. 11 seed)
Indiana (No. 10)
UCLA (No. 9)
USC (No. 8)
Iowa (No. 6)
Michigan State (No. 4)
Illinois (No. 4)
Nebraska (No. 3)
Purdue (No. 2)
Michigan (No. 1)
Illinois
Trump administration freezing $10 billion in social service funding for Illinois, four other blue states
The Trump administration plans to halt $10 billion in federal funding for child care assistance, low income and social service funds in Illinois and four other Democrat-led states, alleging unspecified “massive amounts of fraud.”
The pause in funding comes about a week after the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services said it was freezing child care funds in Minnesota and asking for an audit of day care centers amid allegations of fraud by day care centers run by Somali residents. In announcing that freeze, HHS Deputy Secretary Jim O’Neill said there is “blatant fraud” in Minnesota “and across the country.”
Minnesota, New York, California, Illinois and Colorado will be cut off from $7 billion in funding for the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program, which provides cash assistance for households with children, nearly $2.4 billion for the Child Care and Development Fund, which helps support working parents with child care and around $870 million for social services grants that help children at risk, according to an HHS official.
It marks the latest in a series of pauses in federal funding to Illinois that began when Trump took office last January, including social service, infrastructure and climate-related dollars.
“For too long, Democrat-led states and Governors have been complicit in allowing massive amounts of fraud to occur under their watch,” HHS spokesman Andrew Nixon said in a statement. “Under the Trump Administration, we are ensuring that federal taxpayer dollars are being used for legitimate purposes. We will ensure these states are following the law and protecting hard-earned taxpayer money.”
The Illinois Department of Health and Human Services on Monday said it had not received any official communication or notification about impacts to federal funding.
“This is yet another politically-motivated action by the Trump Administration that confuses families and leaves states with more questions than answers,” a spokesperson said in a statement. “IDHS will provide an update if it is made aware of program or funding changes.”
The department did not immediately comment on Tuesday afternoon.
Matt Hill, spokesman for Gov. JB Pritzker, criticized the funding threat in a post on X.
“The Trump team is throwing around background quotes, governing by press release, and causing mass confusion for families who need child care,” Hill wrote. “Illinois has NOT been notified of these funds being canceled. Stop politicizing child care and instead make it more affordable.”
U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who is running for the U.S. Senate in the March 17 Democratic primary, called the pending freeze “deeply disturbing.”
“Such a move wouldn’t punish bad actors — it would harm working parents and children who rely on these programs. As someone who grew up on essential social programs when my family got knocked down, I know firsthand how life-changing that support can be,” Krishnamoorthi said in a statement. “At a time when Illinois families are already facing an affordability crisis, the Trump Administration should not undermine support that helps parents remain in the workforce or play petty politics with the well-being of America’s families.”
Trump has deployed at least 2,000 federal agents to Minnesota amid a welfare fraud scandal. Federal prosecutors in December said half of more than roughly $18 billion in federal funds that supported Minnesota programs since 2018 may have been stolen, the Associated Press reported.
Trump has used the fraud scandal to target the Somali population in Minnesota. A social media video posted by a right-wing influencer in late December reignited the fraud claims against daycare centers run by Somali people. Since then, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz announced he wouldn’t seek re-election, citing “an organized group of political actors seeking to take advantage of the crisis.”
During a New Year’s Eve event, Trump claimed to reporters that fraud in Minnesota was “peanuts.”
“California is worse, Illinois is worse and, sadly, New York is worse — a lot of other places,” Trump said. “So, we’re going to get to the bottom of this.”
Illinois
Montana State wins the 2025-26 FCS football National Championship in overtime thriller
The drought is over! We repeat, the drought is over! Montana State has won the FCS Championship for the first time since 1984, breaking a 41-year drought.
The Bobcats won the 2025-26 FCS Championship with a 35-34 win over Illinois State in overtime, holding off the Redbirds in the an overtime classic.
After Illinois State scored two fourth quarter touchdowns, the Redbirds had a shot at a game-winning field goal with just over one minute to play. That’s when the kick was blocked! The game proceeded to overtime.
MADNESS IN NASHVILLE, ARE YOU SERIOUS?!?! 🫨
The field goal kick gets blocked by @MSUBobcats_FB, scooped up, and returned back to the 45-yard line of Illinois State. #FCSChampionship x 🎥 ESPN pic.twitter.com/apXWzNehjH
— NCAA FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) January 6, 2026
In overtime, Illinois State got the ball first and scored a touchdown to take the lead. That’s when the extra-point try was blocked as special teams miscues proved costly for Illinois State.
REDBIRDS STRIKE FIRST IN OVERTIME ⚡️
Dylan Lord scores his second touchdown of the game to give @RedbirdFB the lead. #FCSChampionship x 🎥 ESPN pic.twitter.com/cE9621nX2Y
— NCAA FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) January 6, 2026
However, Montana State still had to respond with a touchdown of their own. Facing 4th-and-10, quarterback Justin Lamson hit wide receiver Taco Dowler for the game-tying score. To win the game, Colby Frokjer knocked in the game-winning PAT.
TACO DOWLER TOUCHDOWN 🚨🚨🚨
Lamson connects with Dowler in the end zone for an overtime @MSUBobcats_FB touchdown. #FCSChampionship x 🎥 ESPN pic.twitter.com/gBdNnha0PR
— NCAA FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) January 6, 2026
The game-winning touchdown earned Lamson Most Outstanding Player honors. He completed 67 percent of his passes for 287 yards and two touchdowns, rushing for 30 yards and two scores.
“There’s not many moments that are gonna be better than this.”@MSUBobcats_FB’s @justin_lamson10 reflects on bringing back the first title in 41 years back to Bozeman with @stan_becton 🏆 #FCSChampionship pic.twitter.com/2UQuvtKXO2
— NCAA FCS Football (@NCAA_FCS) January 6, 2026
It’s the first championship of the Brent Vigen era in Bozeman as the head coach lifts the trophy for the first in his third championship game appearance. The win is also the Big Sky’s first over the MVFC in a championship game, bringing the all time record to 4-1.
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