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Why borrowing costs for nearly everything are surging, and what it means for you

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Why borrowing costs for nearly everything are surging, and what it means for you

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., on July 26, 2023.

SAUL LOEB | Getty

Violent moves in the bond market this week have hammered investors and renewed fears of a recession, as well as concerns about housing, banks and even the fiscal sustainability of the U.S. government.

At the center of the storm is the 10-year Treasury yield, one of the most influential numbers in finance. The yield, which represents borrowing costs for issuers of bonds, has climbed steadily in recent weeks and reached 4.8% on Tuesday, a level last seen just before the 2008 financial crisis.

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The relentless rise in borrowing costs has blown past forecasters’ predictions and has Wall Street casting about for explanations. While the Federal Reserve has been raising its benchmark rate for 18 months, that hasn’t impacted longer-dated Treasurys like the 10-year until recently as investors believed rate cuts were likely coming in the near term.

That began to change in July with signs of economic strength defying expectations for a slowdown. It gained speed in recent weeks as Fed officials remained steadfast that interest rates will remain elevated. Some on Wall Street believe that part of the move is technical in nature, sparked by selling from a country or large institutions. Others are fixated on the spiraling U.S. deficit and political dysfunction. Still others are convinced that the Fed has intentionally caused the surge in yields to slow down a too-hot U.S. economy.

“The bond market is telling us that this higher cost of funding is going to be with us for a while,” Bob Michele, global head of fixed income for JPMorgan Chase’s asset management division, said Tuesday in a Zoom interview. “It’s going to stay there because that’s where the Fed wants it. The Fed is slowing you, the consumer, down.”

The ‘everything’ rate

Investors are fixated on the 10-year Treasury yield because of its primacy in global finance.

While shorter-duration Treasurys are more directly moved by Fed policy, the 10-year is influenced by the market and reflects expectations for growth and inflation. It’s the rate that matters most to consumers, corporations and governments, influencing trillions of dollars in home and auto loans, corporate and municipal bonds, commercial paper, and currencies.

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“When the 10-year moves, it affects everything; it’s the most watched benchmark for rates,” said Ben Emons, head of fixed income at NewEdge Wealth. “It impacts anything that’s financing for corporates or people.”

The yield’s recent moves have the stock market on a razor’s edge as some of the expected correlations between asset classes have broken down.

Stocks have sold off since yields began rising in July, giving up much of the year’s gains, but the typical safe haven of U.S. Treasurys has fared even worse. Longer-dated bonds have lost 46% since a March 2020 peak, according to Bloomberg, a precipitous decline for what’s supposed to be one of the safest investments available.

“You have equities falling like it’s a recession, rates climbing like growth has no bounds, gold selling off like inflation is dead,” said Benjamin Dunn, a former hedge fund chief risk officer who now runs consultancy Alpha Theory Advisors. “None of it makes sense.”

Borrowers squeezed

But beyond investors, the impact on most Americans is yet to come, especially if rates continue their climb.

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That’s because the rise in long-term yields is helping the Fed in its fight against inflation. By tightening financial conditions and lowering asset prices, demand should ease as more Americans cut back on spending or lose their jobs. Credit card borrowing has increased as consumers spend down their excess savings, and delinquencies are at their highest since the Covid pandemic began

“People have to borrow at a much higher rate than they would have a month ago, two months ago, six months ago,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi sector investing at Goldman Sachs asset and wealth management.

“Unfortunately, I do think there has to be some pain for the average American now,” she said.

Retailers, banks and real estate

Beyond the consumer, that could be felt as employers pull back from what has been a strong economy. Companies that can only issue debt in the high-yield market, which includes many retail employers, will confront sharply higher borrowing costs. Higher rates squeeze the housing industry and push commercial real estate closer to default.

“For anyone with debt coming due, this is a rate shock,” said Peter Boockvar of Bleakley Financial Group. “Any real estate person who has a loan coming due, any business whose floating rate loan is due, this is tough.”

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The spike in yields also adds pressure to regional banks holding bonds that have fallen in value, one of the key factors in the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic. While analysts don’t expect more banks to collapse, the industry has been seeking to offload assets and has already pulled back on lending.

“We are now 100 basis points higher in yield” than in March, Rosner said. “So if banks haven’t fixed their issues since then, the problem is only worse, because rates are only higher.”

5% and beyond?

The rise in the 10-year has halted in the past two trading sessions this week. The rate was 4.71% on Thursday ahead of a key jobs report Friday. But after piercing through previous resistance levels, many expect that yields can climb higher, since the factors believed to be driving yields are still in place.

That has raised fears that the U.S. could face a debt crisis where higher rates and spiraling deficits become entrenched, a concern boosted by the possibility of a government shutdown next month.

“There are real concerns of ‘Are we operating at a debt-to-GDP level that is untenable?’” Rosner said.

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Since the Fed began raising rates last year, there have been two episodes of financial turmoil: the September 2022 collapse in the U.K.’s government bonds and the March U.S. regional banking crisis.

Another move higher in the 10-year yield from here would heighten the chances something else breaks and makes recession much more likely, JPMorgan’s Michele said.   

“If we get over 5% in the long end, this is legitimately another rate shock,” Michele said. “At that point, you have to keep your eyes open for what looks frail.”

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Finance

Montana GOP, Busse file campaign finance complaints • Daily Montanan

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Montana GOP, Busse file campaign finance complaints • Daily Montanan

The Montana GOP said the Democratic candidate for governor is illegally spending money on his wife’s communications company — but Democrat Ryan Busse, challenging the Republican incumbent, alleges Gov. Greg Gianforte improperly funneled $1 million to his campaign manager’s companies.

Both candidates deny the allegations in the respective complaints filed this month with the Commissioner of Political Practices.

Busse claims Gianforte paid campaign manager Jake Eaton and other staff affiliated with the campaign more than $1 million through Eaton’s companies. The payments are disclosed in financial reports, but the Busse campaign says they violate the law against “secret pass-through payments.”

Gianforte campaign spokesperson Anna Marian Block said in a statement Friday the campaign is in full compliance with the law.

“This complaint is nothing more than a desperate attempt to distract voters from the fact that Ryan Busse is trailing in the polls by 21%,” Block said.

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Meanwhile, the Montana Republican Party alleges the Busse campaign allocated several thousand dollars to his wife’s communications company in violation of a law prohibiting surplus funds going to candidates for “personal benefit,” which includes family members.

In a response filed Friday, Busse’s campaign called the complaint “utterly meritless” and said contrary to the allegations, the communications work is being done by an experienced professional and legally must be compensated.

Busse: Gianforte isn’t disclosing payments to staff for campaign work

Eaton owns consulting firm The Political Company as well as political sign printing shop and marketing firm Ultra Graphics, both in Billings. The Busse campaign’s complaint, filed Friday, lists more than 25 payments from Gianforte’s campaigns to both companies between March and June of this year. The campaign says Gianforte should have made those payments to Eaton personally, instead of through his companies, for his consulting work.

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Eaton noted in his email Friday political parties can submit expenditures for campaigns and noted the Montana Republican State Central Committee report is where the expenses for staff are listed, including his own. The committee’s report for the first quarter of the year notes The Political Company was paid three installments of $12,500, as well as salaries for staff listed in the complaint.

The complaint, authored by Busse staffer Emily Harris, said the Gianforte campaign has previously this election cycle tried to sidestep accountability for including false information about immigration in an ad. After taking the ad down, the campaign told Montana’s ABC/Fox affiliate the ad was done by an “outside contractor”and the campaign decided to remove it. Busse’s camp is claiming the ad was created by Eaton’s company, basing that off the time of the ad and when it was published.

Busse’s complaint also claims it is implausible Gianforte raised $1.2 million from when he officially became a candidate in January, but doesn’t point to concrete evidence Gianforte started raising money prior to becoming a candidate other than campaign contribution amounts being suspicious. Busse believes because the donations were all the same amount and at the maximum amount that could be donated by one person at a time, $2,240, it raises concern as it doesn’t match donation amounts from in person events which were around $100.

Harris wrote Gianforte started campaign activities earlier than is legally allowed as an internal poll came out days after he officially became a candidate, but also made the claim on “information and belief.”

The complaint also listed a number of staffers that claim through social media as well as in news reports to be affiliated with the campaign, but are not included in the expenditures for the campaign.

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Harris also listed more than 20 expenditures from Gianforte’s campaign saying the descriptions were too vague and did not comply with the same statute referenced in the complaint against Busse for signs and media placement.

The Busse campaign also said money “passed through Eaton’s companies goes to other Republican-aligned vendors—payments Gianforte conceals from his reporting.” The complaint did not list which vendors, though.

GOP: Busse giving campaign funds to wife for communications work

The complaint from the state GOP, signed June 14, says Busse’s campaign paid Aspen Communications, owned by Sarah Swan Busse, a total of just more than $12,000 for communications and fundraising consulting, as well as car mileage. Sara Swan Busse is Ryan Busse’s wife.

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The complaint also said candidate Busse receives a salary from Aspen Communications, which the campaign refutes as not affiliated with the election.

But because the salary would directly benefit Busse and his wife, the GOP alleges Busse is in violation of state law that prohibits surplus campaign funds from directly benefiting candidates or their family members.

The Busse campaign, in a response authored by campaign manager Aaron Murphy, said Sara Busse is an “independent experienced professional” and her work legally must be compensated fairly.

It listed her experience in the field working on western district democratic candidate Monica Tranel’s Congressional campaign during the 2022 election cycle.

The Busse camp also said the statute cited by the GOP regarding personal benefit from campaign funds isn’t relevant as it concerns how funds are dealt with after the campaign, not during. Murphy wrote the GOP likely meant to cite an administrative rule saying candidates cannot use campaign funds for personal use, but he said the campaign didn’t break that rule either.

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“All expenditures and reimbursements to Sara Busse and Aspen Communications are directly connected to her fundraising and communications work for the campaign—they support the campaign and would not exist without it,” the response read.

“The campaign’s contract with Aspen Communications is not to compensate Ryan Busse. Ryan Busse receives no compensation from the campaign (excluding reimbursements for mileage, etc.),” the response read. “Ryan Busse’s occasional work for Aspen Communications, as listed on his personal disclosure, is entirely separate and distinct from the campaign.”

Murphy also said if hiring spouses was at issue, it would call into question the ethics of the state paying attorney Emily Jones, wife of Gianforte’s campaign manager Jake Eaton, for her work as an attorney with the state.

The GOP complaint also said Busse’s campaign was not thorough in its description of the services paid for with campaign funds, as is required in statute.

This included a $250,000 ad buy from media strategy company Left Hook with the description “statewide broadcast tv ad buy” and a nearly $7,800 purchase from progressive campaign sign producer Blue Deal with the description “signs.”

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Montana Commissioner of Political Practices Chris Gallus said the timeline for determining whether his office will move forward with a formal investigation in the complaint against Busse is not known at this time. His office will send a letter Monday requesting Gianforte’s response to the complaint by Busse.

Editor’s Note: the headline of this story was amended to reflect the Montana GOP filing the campaign finance complaint against Ryan Busse.

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Finance

California high schools will require personal finance course for graduation under new bill

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California high schools will require personal finance course for graduation under new bill

Beginning with the graduating class of 2031, high school students in California will be required to complete one semester of a personal finance course before receiving their diplomas.

On Thursday, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed legislation to require personal finance education for high school graduates after the state Senate and Assembly passed Assembly Bill 2927. This makes California the 26th state to require finance-related instruction for graduating high school seniors. 

The standalone course, which would teach students to expand their financial literacy through topics like minimizing bank fees and managing credit scores, would be offered early as the 2027-28 school year.

“Our young people need and deserve a clear understanding of personal finance so that they can make educated financial choices and build stable, successful futures for themselves and their future families,” State Superintendent Tony Thurmond said in a press release. “By adding personal finance to our high school graduation requirements, we acknowledge that managing household finances and building financial stability are essential life skills.”

Superintendent Thurmond, who sponsored the bill, said that “every child should have the opportunity to build these essential skills before navigating adult financial choices.” The content considered for the personal finance curriculum would also include budgeting principles, investment options and consumer protection awareness.

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High schoolers may be able to substitute the new personal finance course for their semester-long economics course, which is currently required for graduation throughout the state. School districts and charter schools may also provide students the option to complete a yearlong course to further expand their financial literacy.

In order to enhance the creation of this curriculum, State Superintendent Thurmond announced efforts in March to build a personal finance task force that would support the implementation of these required courses for K-12 students throughout California.

Superintendent Thurmond and the California Department of Education plan to work with education experts from the Instructional Quality Commission to develop a curriculum guide and resources, expected to be adopted in 2026. 

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There’s one critical part of employee wellbeing that bosses are forgetting

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There’s one critical part of employee wellbeing that bosses are forgetting

The cost of living crisis is weighing on employees. And as companies roll out more unique benefit offerings designed to support staffers, they should spend some time thinking about the financial benefits that workers actually want. 

Two out of three U.S. employees ranked financial well-being as the top area within well-being overall in which they want support from their bosses over the next three years, according to a new report from Willis Towers Watson (WTW), an insurance services company. That beat out all other well-being subcategories, including a supportive company culture, mental, emotional, and physical health benefits, and workplace connections. 

About 88% of workers are worried about covering their living costs, with 73% concerned about paying for food, 72% distressed about healthcare, 69% fretting over housing, and 66% troubled over transportation, according to the report. Around one in five American employees expect their financial situation to get worse over the next year. 

In the past, retirement benefits were the main financial perk that employers would offer to their workers, Mark Smrecek, financial well-being market leader at WTW, tells Fortune. But as costs rise and workplace expectations shift, there’s been an increased emphasis on other meaningful employee benefits. 

“As we look at broader lifestyle needs and concerns, the inventory on the employer side is far less equipped to serve its employee base,” he says. 

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Employers also seem unclear about how much workers actually prize financial well-being benefits. While 66% of U.S. workers want their employer to help them with their financial wellness over the next three years, only 23% of bosses prioritized financial wellness as an aspect of their well-being program. 

When it comes to the kind of support they would like to see from employers, around 47% of U.S. workers say they want help growing their savings and wealth, according to the report. That’s followed by 35% who want help getting the most out of the benefits they already have, 33% who would like access to money in an emergency, and 21% want help managing debt. Around 21% want financial insurance, and 11% want help managing student loans. 

Smrecek says that growing savings and wealth, as well as getting the most out of benefits, are two relatively traditional requests that employers are comfortable with. But others are more outside their wheelhouse. 

“Providing access to money in emergencies and helping manage employee debt are two that are far more emerging from an employee demand point of view,” he says. 

Smrecek adds that in addition to fulfilling workers’ specific financial benefit demands, employers need to do three things to best support staffers. He recommends bosses provide solutions that are relevant and accessible to their workforce, like financial literacy coaching and direct access to liquidity. Employers should also supplement those solutions with other less monetary-focused programs like affordable and effective healthcare plans. And companies should be proactive about connecting employees with these benefits. 

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“As employers look to really address the core need of the employee, how that relates to their business, and how they create value from their benefits, those aspects will drive a lot of the results that they’re looking for,” he says.

Emma Burleigh
emma.burleigh@fortune.com

Around the Table

A round-up of the most important HR headlines.

Workplace vacancies hit a record high of 19.8% last quarter, and a Moody’s report shows that the percentage of empty U.S. offices could peak at 24% in 2026. Quartz

Patagonia told 90 of its remote customer service staffers that they have three days to decide if they want to relocate to one of the company’s seven “hubs” or leave their role. Business Insider

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Despite some progress in California, most U.S. businesses are opposed to passing “right to disconnect” legislation, reasoning it wouldn’t fit well with remote workers and those logging in from abroad. CNBC

Watercooler

Everything you need to know from Fortune.

Secret weapons. As more companies are trying to get workers back into the office, they’re employing sociologists, psychologists, and anthropologists to understand how staffers tick. —Ryan Hogg

Lavish living crisis. U.S. workers earning $150,000 per year are more worried about covering their bills than employees making $40,000 up to six figures, according to a report. —Eleanor Pringle

Paychecks for prosperity. China’s biggest banks have requested senior staffers to waive deferred bonuses, or even partially return their wages, to abide by the country’s new $400,000 pre-tax limit. —Bloomberg

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